Quote from: Ralph on March 09, 2013, 11:41:04 PM

I use to test, during play, and do not get any news from longer simulations. Still I use some classic methods.
We win when the ball fall on our bets however we chose them.

Well i still think you better of using what is last and present ... then chasing for things that has no show ...
We know that one number can sleep for 400 and more and we know several numbers can sleep for 100 and so on ...
We know that one dozen can sleep for 32 times in a row and we know nothing is due to happen ...
So it keeps on going ...

 
Well testing systems is a waste of time if you think they will win in the long run ...
All you need to do is one educated guess based upon what is current and present in front of you ...
That is a kind of methodology, but i don't know what some one would name it ...

Quote from: esoito on March 09, 2013, 10:56:43 PM
"Keep testing before you make up your mind."


Two key questions arise from that option:   

1  How do you know when to stop?

2  How much testing is 'enough'?



Isn't the option, as worded, too open-ended and vague???

Is not vague, i just did not know how to wrap up point three in five words, i see now the word testing was wrong, maybe it should been getting a feel for the game and keep work and later on decide if you would pick option 1 or 2 ...

Quote3) Keep work and play when you have free time, but will then not deal with the
same psychological pressure as if you would been depending on your gambling as
your main income.
But would get good hints how you do overall to make up your
mind.

No need to test system, you can just use educated guess work with good MM and become a pro ...
Testing end up with one result in the long run, we all know that.
A pro see what is current and present and act on does parameters ...
My opinion ....

 
The question is how would you give it a shot, test your life as pro ...
When you as all have a rent, food and bills to pay ...

It is a realistic question and not about what a pro is !!!

Cheers

 

Reality about to become a full time pro ...
What are the options ...

1) Well you can save one year of income and take one year off from work and give your new life a shot.
That way you keep your work and can return if things are not going your way ...
Then you have money for rent, food and bills.

2) Quit work and get 80% of salary from the state during one year (in my country)
You don't have a work you can return to, but you don't have to save for one year of income.
Will have money for rent, food and bills during one year.

3) Keep work and play when you have free time, but will then not deal with the same psychological pressure as if you would been depending on your gambling as your main income.
But would get good hints how you do overall to make up your mind.

Well this is the first three ideas that strike my mind.

Then comes other questions ...
as how much would you main bankroll be ?

Cheers

 
Yes i like that, is the same line of thinking as John Patrick's methodology ... make me think of Regression and Up & Pull ...
Same line of thinking as Brett Morton's money management that is similar towards JP's Up&Pull strategy ...

I start to see the light, cut loses short, play small when losing and higher when you win ...
To do that you have to have a solid MM with guidelines on how to handle those situations ...

 
When i read about some one who come up with an idea to play the game, they will show a bet selection.
But never do they show the negative expectation, define what it is, so you know what you are up against.

As i see it.

Lets me try to show what i mean ...
I have a bet selection for dominance, hitting long series of strikes.

It looks like this ...
WWL WWWWL WWWL WWWL WWL (L)

Now you could see that my entering point catch a long string of winnings bets, five series of attacks end up in profit.
Then i hit one loss, that indicate i will go into the territory where i deal with the negative expectation.

I have define the negative expectation and i know what i am up against, that way i also know how many loses i have to accept and when to quit.
As if i define my negative expectation, i then have 1 in 2 to prevent it from becoming due, end up in the big hole.

In this case three loses, is the exit point.
But this time i hit my second chance favoring me with LLW so i can continue or reach my win goal and quit ...

This way you also define what kind of fluctuation you have to deal with, in this case two loses when you have favorable hits going your way and not hitting the exit points of three loses.
Three loses that is the entering point for the big hole where nothing is due to happen.

That was the first level of getting a hunch about the negative expectation we face when we create one bet selection.
Now we end up with more entering point and exit point on a different overall level during the game.

Lets say that my entering point is three, then it can fail and become the entering point for the big hole where nothing is due to happen.
Then i have again a new chance 1 in 2 hitting a favorable shot for the second attack with three attempts.
But then comes the question if i would entering the game the second time when the distribution is favoring me or not favoring me, follow or go against.

It is like a step ladder with no end for each level when you face the big hole, negative expectation.
I made up my mind.
.
No matter where i am, i will always aim for what is present, follow the wheel.
It feels less then chasing for events that have no show, sleeping.

This is how the sequense end ...

WWL WWWWL WWWL WWWL WWL (LLW) WWWL WL WWWWWL (LLL)

 
Ok i been doing some further testing and Think will run 20 10 5 10 5 10 5 10 as regression and up and pull ... it capitalize more smooth and hold profits much better.
If loses chop i will aim to break even.
I will run Another 100 sessions ...

 
Lets look at the hitting and return ... as you can see to aggressive up and pull destroy winning to keep and hold a profit ...
When 5 10 5 10 5 10 capitalize and hold profits much better ....
.

W 20
L 10  10
.
W 20
L 5  15
.
W 20
W 10
L 5  25
.
W 20
W 5
L 10  15
.
W 20
W 10
W 5
L 10  25
.
W 20
W 5
W 10
L 5  35
.
W 20
W 10
W 5
W 10
L 15  30
.
W 20
W 5
W 10
W 5
L 10  30
.
W 20
W 10
W 5
W 10
W 15
L 20  40
.
W 20
W 5
W 10
W 5
W 10
L 5  45

Quote from: MarignyGrilleau on March 07, 2013, 02:32:57 PM
What unit values do you use for your regression bet?

I Place a total of four bets.
2223
If i win i lower my bet.
.
With a real regression plan you would bet 20 10 5 10 15 20 25 30 ... and so on Up and Pull ...
I test to bet 20 and then 5 10 5 10 5 10 5 10 5 10 to capitalize on longer strikes ...
You win when distribution strikes and when it get choppy and it it end up between does two you lose ... depending on how you use your bet selection ...

 
.
It would nice if i could find a selection that let me ride out more dominance, then the regression would really kick in ...

 
First 102 sessions using Regression ... with small win target and let it ride ...
Rules:
Flat betting with higer unit value.
At a win lower the bet.
When a win push and pull.
.
Plus 84,5 units
Minus 14 units
Net Gain 70,5 units
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
2.0
1,5
1,0
1,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
4,0
1,5
-9
.
9 - 21,5 = plus 12,5
.
1,5
1,5
3,0
2,0
2,0
3,0
1,5
3,0
-11
.
11 - 17,5 = plus 6,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
4.0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
-10,5
.
10,5 - 20 = plus 9,5
.
3,0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
4,5
-9
.
9 -13 = plus 4
.
3,0
1,5
3,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
-10
.
10 - 24,5 = plus 14,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
-12
.
12 - 12 = plus 0
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
.
10,5 - 4,5 = minus 6
.
1,5
1,5
4,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
4,5
-12
.
12 - 22,5 = plus 10,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
4,5
4,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
3,0
3,0
3,5
1,5
1,0
-9
.
9 - 36 = plus 27
.
1,0
-9
.
9 - 1 = minus 8
.

Now i will compare that with a different rula and test for around 100 sessions.
That would be win or break even, just to see if we could stretch thing more into the postive ....

 
I will continue with more testing, is just hard to make your mind up when it boils down to how to play ...
I think i will keep the idea of winning or break even or take a loss around 100 ...
Still using the regression strategy ...

 
Now i test one other bet selection and change the overall win targets.
If not a direct win then break even.
If a win push for more, but keep a profit, regression strategy.

Pass 300 trails with testing the 20/100 flaw, that means you just stop at a win target with 20% with out push and pull.
That means you have to win 5 times in a row for each 100, that is the flaw.

We gain more as we catch strikes.

24 sessions and plus 375

45
15
0
15
30
15
0
15
15
0
15
15
45
15
15
45
0
15
0
30
15
15
0
0

 
I testing to win 15 to 20% out of 100 using regression strategy ...
Where you some times hit long strings of winning strikes or just cut Short and keep a small profit.

1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
2.0
1,5
1,0
1,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
4,0
1,5
-9
.
9 - 21,5 = plus 12,5
.
1,5
1,5
3,0
2,0
2,0
3,0
1,5
3,0
-11
.
11 - 17,5 = plus 6,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
4.0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
-10,5
.
10,5 - 20 = plus 9,5
.
3,0
1,5
1,0
1,5
1,5
4,5
-9
.
9 -13 = plus 4
.
3,0
1,5
3,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
3,0
1,5
-10
.
10 - 24,5 = plus 14,5
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
-12
.
12 - 12 = plus 0
.
1,5
1,5
1,5
.
10,5 - 4,5 = minus 6
.

All this is thanks to John Patrick's metodology ...
Total plus 47 units playing 69 sessions ...