-

The answer to the 20/100 Flaw is Brett Morton's MM.
It is based upon safety nets and when to push with flexibility win targets.

So a week might be +80 +50 +40 +60 +40 = 270 where the risk could been around 100, so you would be ahead, overall +170 ...



Now try to rap you mind around this ...

Personally i have to think in new ways as the money management is cruel with no errors.

Now what amount make me happy - i would say 50 Euro would make me feel great.
So that should be my Happy-Point.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits.
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Thump of rule is that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target - if you do.

This is also a MM based upon the same principals.

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
70 Happy-Point
100 Gold-Top
? Jackpot

Conclusion is that you can skip one big or huge bankroll and go all in for a small % as noting is due to happen and you will sooner or later lose your bankroll.

This way you can base the methods or session upon your strike ratio.

Win two sessions out of three sessions
Win three sessions out of four sessions
Win four sessions out five sessions

Also know that this strategy set limits how many units you have to play with - so there is no room for any kind of sloppy or fuzzy games.   
 
Explore and find out your own variance ...

Lets say you cut the targets around 33% you might succeed and from that point as you gain experience tight up your game plan.
So the MM could look like this if you win more sessions then you lose.

MM with units ...

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

I will from now on only test all my bet selections based upon this MM with different staking plans.
As i remember ND aim to win two session out of three - i guess he use some kind of MM to succeed with he's hit ratio.     

Now try to rap you mind around this ...

Personally i have to think in new ways as the money management is cruel with no errors.

Now what amount make me happy - i would say 50 Euro would make me feel great.
So that should be my Happy-Point.

Loss-Limit should not be more then my Happy-Point so now i have the Loss-Limit of 50 Euro.
That was easy to set up does guide lines based upon this money management strategy.

50 Loss-Limit
50 Happy-Point

Now when or if i reach Happy-Point and want to continue to next win target Gold-Top - then i can't lose it all as there is a Bottom Line Target - "safety net" - that stops me from losing it all.
I set the BTL 10 Euro as i want as much money i can get to continue for next win target and in the same time not go home with a empty wallet.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point

Now i don't want to rush things so i aim for 70 as Gold-Top - the second win target.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top

Lets assume i don't stopp at Happy-Point or stopp at Gold-Top and continue for Jackpot.
Then i can only use the money between Happy-Point and Gold-Top to grind out profits.
Then Happy-Point is my secound safety net.

50 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

You can adjust this strategy as you feel like.
Thump of rule is that you should have Loss-Limit around the same amount as Happy-Point.
Bottom-Line-Target you can set to minimum so you have more money to fight whit as you play for next win target - if you do.

This is also a MM based upon the same principals.

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
70 Happy-Point
100 Gold-Top
? Jackpot

Conclusion is that you can skip one big or huge bankroll and go all in for a small % as noting is due to happen and you will sooner or later lose your bankroll.

This way you can base the methods or session upon your strike ratio.

Win two sessions out of three sessions
Win three sessions out of four sessions
Win four sessions out five sessions

Also know that this strategy set limits how many units you have to play with - so there is no room for any kind of sloppy or fuzzy games.   
 
Explore and find out your own variance ...

Lets say you cut the targets around 33% you might succeed and from that point as you gain experience tight up your game plan.
So the MM could look like this if you win more sessions then you lose.

MM with units ...

100 Loss-Limit
10 Bottom-Line-Target
50 Happy-Point
70 Gold-Top
?? Jackpot

I will from now on only test all my bet selections based upon this MM with different staking plans.
As i remember ND aim to win two session out of three - i guess he use some kind of MM to succeed with he's hit ratio.     

Among the very best MM i read about is Brett Morton's ...
I also hear that John Patrick has some good things going ...

Brett Mortons MM let you win with flexibility oppisite to the 20/100 Flaw using MM ...

- - -

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06 at 05:32 PM
John Patrick's forum board.

- - -

Someone quoted John Patrick as saying I don't win much but I don't lose much either.
Now he was critical of this statement but there is a reason for it.

- - -

We who have lived with gambling all our lives understand the relationship between what we win and what we lose.
The Equation is simple enough .
Magnitude of profit is usually a function of magnitude of wagering.
One of the most common failures in gambling is progressive betting.

- - -

Several small wins are satisfying but  when the next small win does not happen and it turns into a progression which often recovers the day but sometimes results in ruination.
Giving up on a progression is hard because losing can mean the erosion of several days work.
The gambling flaw is inherent in this.
Christopher Pawlicki highlighted this fact.
The equation for winning small returns often calls for a progression .
The progression  ultimately however snatches away the prevous wins.

- - -

For example 20   20  20  20  20 has been achieved with 50   100   80   120   100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20   wins.

- - -

I call this the 20/100 flaw.
20 is therefore 20% of 100. A good result by any standards.
In order to control the erosion of previous wins the ratio of win to wager
needs to be as close to parity as possible.

- - -

Say 80   80  80  80   80  with 100   100   100   100   100
If the 100 goes then we still have nearly 4 days work intact.
We can walk away and get them again another day.
Not many gamblers can achieve 80%.
This is the flaw.

- - -

There must be plenty of gamblers here who understand this but any replies should be better than 3 and out .
The math does not work.

- - -

You have to get the Bankroll Management straight.
Lets assume you have 1600 Euro.
Then you divide the bank by 4 and get 400 400 400 400.

When you double one smaller bank to 800 you divide the 400 into the overall bankroll.
Then 1600 is 2000 that you divide by 4.
Now you have 500 500 500 500.

If you have 1600 = 400 400 400 400 and lose, then it looks like this.
1600 - 400 = 1200 = 300 300 300 300

This way you will have iron overview and control over your bank.

 
Well i just wanted your opinion, that´s all.
Could later see that Bayes alredy ask ...
I would say one loss is an indication for a change and two loses is a change, that way you can catch does long strings of dominance like WLWWWWLWLWLWLWWWLWWLWLWLWWLWWWW ...

Cheers

 
-
So what would you say is the attack window to catch does dominant events, two, three or even four bets ?
Lets assume flat betting, then what kind of staking plan would you pick, regression, parlay, guetting ?

And what kind of ending tail would you say is good, two, three loses ?

 
-
ND i find the search function at JP forum board very good ... find many nice topics ...

Cheers

Do you know how to capitalize on zig zag events EC
I notice you can win on does strings LWLWLWLW or WLWLWLWLWL

Pretty cool with regression plan ...

John Patrick Posted 07/18/06 at 01:11 PM at his forum board.

- - -

Quote
I think I posted this before but it is such a great article (ahem) that I decided to slip it in here again..................   if you don't wanna read it, because it IS long, then just skip over it........but you'll read it, because even though it may not suit all of you, it certainly will be read by the 20-25 people who e mail me every month about their leaning to this type life ............   This chapter is from my last book (21st CENTURY BLACKJACK).........and gives a good solid look into what you can expect to find if this is the path you wish to take...............   Even if you do not read the whole article........slide down to the very last paragraph.............and tell me that you do not find YOURSELF in one of those three  sentences .............   After a day of gambling.....you feel either GOOD, BAD or UGLY.............see if you don't slide into one of those three categories ...........                                                   THE PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER   Not a week goes by, sometimes not even a day, when someone asks about the chances they would have in the world of gambling, if they would turn pro and do it on a constant and daily basis.  I give each of them the same reply:  "Try it for 6 months and see if you can be successful at it.  But keep your day job".   That last sentence is not to be funny, but to alert those people about the biggest  by far,  obstacle that stands in the way of someone becoming a pro.  It is the psychological drain on your mind when you have a losing streak that you can't get out of and there is no pay day looming on Friday, to cover the everyday expenses of life.     So, I will go over it again, for the umpteenth time.  Take $10,000, master the game or games of your choice and try to win $100 a week or $25 a day, or even $20 a day, for a period of 6 months, while staying at your everyday business or job.  Knowing that there is a payday in the wings takes a ton of pressure off of anyone who goes into this field.   I hit losing streaks all the time.  Make no mistake about it, it happens to even the best, but then I just admitted that it happens, (grin).  But seriously, when I get mired in a streak where things that usually happen on a pretty consistent basis, like grinding out decent returns, suddenly turn belly up, I get concerned.   Picking the outcome of sporting events like Basketball, Baseball, Hockey, Golf and Football are done with an approach that I have used for years, concentrating on POWER vs DOG.  All of a sudden the worm turns and these snakes start blowing games in the last inning or at the buzzer or on the final play.  Those mishaps are called BAD BEATS and they do hurt.     These types of situations don't last for a day or two, but sometimes will drag on for over a week or ten days.  You can't figure out why it happens and the loss of income does raise concerns and therein lies the ability of the  REAL PRO to deal with those times.  That is when the ability of being smart comes to the surface.     Since there is no pay check being handed out at the end of the week, you MUST have a sizable back up of money to keep you solid thru these times.  And you MUST BET LOWER.   You MUST BET LOWER.  Repeat for emphasis because that is where the difference between being successful and being a jerk come to a point of decision.   When I first started down this path, I figured I was always due to come out of the bad times and continued shoveling the money across the table.   My bets remained at the same amount and many times higher than normal.  The losses continued, the money dwindled, the panic set in and the psychological drain was overwhelming.     I already explained this in prior chapters but it is something you have to realize, if you are thinking of entering this lifestyle,  that the down times happen quite often.  Veterans of my books and tapes are aware of the two things I zero in on constantly, not just for prospective pros but for anyone who risks money on the outcome of a happening:   1)  ACCEPT SMALL WINS................   2)  SET LOSS LIMITS.......................   As soon as I mastered those two guidelines and FOLLOWED them, my bad days got outnumbered by the good ones.   It means  that by setting those LOSS LIMITS, I was able to ride out the down periods.  Then, on the days I got (get) ahead, I use the all important GUARANTEE and EXCESS, wrap up a profit and leave at the first hint of a losing streak (two losses in a row).  Maybe the wins aren't gigantic, but the days are not classified as losers.   I am probably unique in my lifestyle of gambling, in that I do not concentrate on any one game, but rather am adept in many, so that if something isn't working, there is an alternate outlet.  Of course I have my dominants and I will list them, in the order of what I gamble on mostly:   1)  SPORTS..................Far and away my favorite and this is done 364 days a year..........I take two days off.  The day after and the day before the annual baseball All Star game is dark.  There is absolutely no sporting event on those days, in any sport.    2)  POKER..................................I play high low split 4-5 nites a week..............   3)  PAI GOW POKER ..............A great game for anyone to use as the dominant..........   4)  CRAPS................................The table game in the casino that offers great grinding opportunities.............    5)  ROULETTE.........................A game that more people should play, but don't because of the adverse nonsense that others hand out about the vig being too high......................Bull.....oney............   6)  BACCARAT.........................The casino game that offers best chance for streaks............   7)  HORSE RACING.................Maybe 2 races a day, just to add to the mix..........     VIDEO POKER...................Good MONEY MANAGEMENT allows one to grind out small but consistent returns........   9)  BLACKJACK......................Toughest game in the house.  I love it but it is hard to get long streaks, as I have pointed out over and over............   10)  Anything else that allows me to put money at risk and where I have a chance to weigh my chances of winning or losing.................   Most pros zero in on one single game, like either Poker or Horses or Blackjack or Craps or Sports and stick with that game, and usually  with  one  back up.  I differ in my approach and have found this approach to fit my NEEDS.  The next chapter talks about the ENVELOPE SYSTEM, so read it.   As for the life itself, I find it fabulous.  I spend plenty of time with my family, which is numero uno in my life.  The 5 hour round trip to Atlantic City is filled with anticipation on the way down and the ride home is made at exactly 7 pm, so that I can listen to the sporting event I bet on, for the two and a half hour jaunt home.   Hot coffee and a sandwich is the diet  and occasionally donuts replace the regular meal.     I arrive home as the game is going off and a quick shower gives me time to make the 11 pm starting poker game, which goes until you decide you have won enough or lost enough.  I have a regular seat in the game and if I decide enough is enough, I get up and leave, as do all of the others and there are back ups waiting to keep the game filled.   Ahhhhhhhhh, those glorious nights in a poker game.  Did you ever sit in a shark infested area with your opponents waiting to skin you alive?  These games bring together a group of smart, sharp, callous, unyielding assassins in sheeps clothing.  Talk is minimal, mistakes are expensive, and mercy is absent.     The combatants are there for one purpose:  to take your money.  Of course you are there for the same purpose.  Make a slip up and a horde of vultures prey on that mistake.  Apologies are never presented and that old saying about the weak inheriting the earth is a lot of stuff.   These games prove, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that if you are weak of heart, short of money and mistake prone, you will pay.   A slip of the tongue is picked up by every conniving soul at that table, so keep your mouth shut and your eyes and ears open.  It is a challenge for those ready to suffer the consequences or reap the rewards.     It is pure out and out joy..................I LOVE THE CHALLENGE.   So, if you have aspirations of becoiming a pro, read this and other tidbits I offer you about the good,  the bad, and the ugly.     a)  The GOOD  is winning money.     b)  The BAD is losing money.   c)  The UGLY is how you feel if you are GOOD at   being BAD.  ................if you catch my drift.    JOHN PATRICK   

Math Professor
Posted 03/20/06 at 05:32 PM
John Patrick's forum board.

- - -

Someone quoted John Patrick as saying I don't win much but I don't lose much either.
Now he was critical of this statement but there is a reason for it.

- - -

We who have lived with gambling all our lives understand the relationship between what we win and what we lose.
The Equation is simple enough .

- - -

Magnitude of profit is usually a function of magnitude of wagering.
One of the most common failures in gambling is progressive betting.
Several small wins are satisfying but  when the next small win does not happen and it turns into a progression which often recovers the day but sometimes results in ruination.
Giving up on a progression is hard because losing can mean the erosion of several days work.
The gambling flaw is inherent in this.

- - -

Christopher Pawlicki highlighted this fact.
The equation for winning small returns often calls for a progression .
The progression  ultimately however snatches away the prevous wins.

- - -

For example 20 + 20 +20 +20 +20 has been achieved with 50 + 100 + 80 + 120 + 100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20 + wins.

- - -

I call this the 20/100 flaw.
20 is therefore 20% of 100. A good result by any standards.
In order to control the erosion of previous wins the ratio of win to wager
needs to be as close to parity as possible.

- - -

Say 80 + 80 +80 +80 + 80  with 100 + 100 + 100 + 100 + 100
If the 100 goes then we still have nearly 4 days work intact.
We can walk away and get them again another day.
Not many gamblers can achieve 80%.
This is the flaw.

- - -

There must be plenty of gamblers here who understand this but any replies should be better than 3 and out .
The math does not work.

- - -

Superman that was very kind of you letting him play with your money ...
I would never do it ...

Cheers

 
LOL thanks A - now i notice i can lock topic ...

Great, now i can start my large topic about the "win goal/loss limit flaw" ...
It is a topic about the very best MM that exist.

Cheers

Sad, i do ...

I wondering if we could implement a new section to this forum.
I remember there was a section with the name "elaborate at length" ...
Where you could write long topics with out any disturbing replies and you had some mod function so you could lock the topic and open it when it was finish.

I would like to see this kind of section at this forum board.

Cheers

I can not see the re-install text anymore, so i assume we have dual forum now, is that correct ?

Well i run Ubuntu stable version with long time support.

It is faster then Windows.
It is safer then Windows.
It is more stable then Windows.
It come with free software.
It does almost not exist virus for unix based systems.
It is better looking then Windows.

Wine fix and run most Windows softwares.