Sitting at the baccarat table the other night and the last hand, an F7 comes. Yes, I was on it, because of numerous reasons. But it was the 4th F7 of the shoe and it finished 41 B to 30 P.

There was a very unique occurring five times, maximum 3 chop-chop in the shoe.  There were several other events that happened as well and were capitalized on by myself and others. I will post a picture of the scoreboard once our attachment posting problem is fixed.  The majority of people made money, but in the following shoe, which was classically easy to follow, most lost quickly. 

The next shoe brought a great start, banker-player player followed by a 7 streak Banker and an F7 on the 8th hand, within the streak.  Then there was a beautiful seven time chop-chop event that happened immediately after the seven banker streak. I did extremely well. I colored up and cashed out.

The cage is not far from the baccarat table. I cashed out and went back to the table to see what was happening. It turned out there was a problem with the hand after I colored up and left. There was another chop and the banker came out. The dealer picked up the first few spots Wagers which were on the banker and the game was stopped and surveillance was called to determine what the wages were to replace them on the spots. The hand was completed and I threw up a few hundred dollars and wagered max on the F7 and the rest on the banker. They all looked at me and said, "you don't see the chop chop". My answer was, "but there was eight hands in the beginning and an F7, now you have eight chop chop and I feel another F7 is coming or banker".

Most all were on players with large wagers. Myself and one other person wagered the Banker and the F7. Cards dealt, Players have two face cards, bankers have blackjack, players pulled a six and they were all fist pumping in the air and calling out, 'chop'.  Dealer flips another six for the banker and my F7 happened.

Clearly the player side is verbally citing, WTF and saying how that should not have occurred, Etc., Etc.

But as with so many things in the game of baccarat, the same things that won previously, lose presently. And the same things that lost previously, will win presently.  That my friends is random variance defined in realistic terms. 

And while sitting there at the table during the shuffle prior to the last shoe I just described, I dwelled on how the majority, mostly, confirm the absolute unpredictability of the game-over and over and over, week after week after week, but yet continue to get sucked in by the casino's score board. 

NOTE:  I will post both pictures of those two shoes as soon as the attachment for posting pictures is fixed on our forum. Thank you.

Many might have noticed I had all the online casino banners and advertising removed from my forum.

Why?  Because of their dishonesty and outright lies.  Yes, we would get a commission based upon sign ups and plays.  When I questioned the online casino officials, they told me a ridiculously low number of sign ups and play from my forum the past months. 

Well I signed up myself and had another 4 people open accounts as well. Those 5 accounts were never accounted for and added to my forum's tally and commissions. 

As well, I had one member claim he was cheated and he stated his case to me.  I believe him and his proof was rock solid. 

So it clearly appears to me, they do these sort of things on a regular basis, therefore they can do their business on The Wizard of Vegas and other gambling forums, NOT MINE!

Thanks,
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner

Few upgrades are being performed including fixing problems that exist reference attaching pictures, etc.

The forum is going to be in maintenance mode intermittently during the first days of March while this fix and the new badges code is being implemented.

Thanks for your understanding and patience.

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Administrator and Forum Owner

Banker had 2 times, 3 IAR and the third cards for the first 3IAR were a 6-8-9 in that order.  The only other guy and myself say to each other, that 7 is coming, look we had 3 perfect setups for an F7 win if we got a 7 card on any of those 3rd ones.  Then the second 3 IAR, the third cards for that 3 IAR were a 6-9-8 in that order.  Another perfect set of 3 chances if we only got a 7. 

This was the beginning of the shoe.  The first 3 hands were 3 IAR banker, then a player, then a banker, then a player, then 2 bankers, then a player, then the second set of 3 IAR bankers came.

Only the other guy and myself at the table playing.  We were both betting max Fortune 7 each time.  So like 12 hands were out now.  I looked at him and said, what do you think?  He shrugs his shoulders and says, no feeling.  He places min wager on both the players and the bankers and a very small F7 wager.  It was a tie.  He does it again, and it was a players win.  I sat out both times. 

After that second time, I was like, this isn't going anywhere.  I wagered bankers side but no F7 wager.  The other guy playing is back on banker and max F7 wager.  Dealer deals.  Players have an 8 and a 2.  Bankers have 2 face cards.  Players third card is a 6.  Bankers third card was a friggin 7 for the F7 win.

Why is it almost always like this?  The first hand sitting the F7 wager out and it appears.  Happens quite frequently IMO.  Not just with F7 wagers, but with increased large wagers on P or B and also ties, etc, etc. 

Some type of phenomenon I guess. One of many, within an actual B&M bac shoe when you really think about it.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Posted 8-22-2019.  Revisited 2-26-23 because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Not to present what it is setup to produce.  Thanks, talk later, Alrelax.

Before all the high-tech electronics, unlimited streaming, instant expert answers to virtually any and all questions and much much more, there was great television memories on ABC NBC CBS and PBS as the basic 4.  The sirens of Adam-12, the loud roar of the engine from the Munster Koach on The Munsters, motorists being chased down the highways by "CHiPs", the helicopter blades of "MASH", the lollipop sucking take no flack Kojak, action packed medical drama of EMERGENCY and of course, bad boy bright red with that large white vector stripe Ford Gran Torino (the real star LOL) of 'Starsky and Hutch'.

And somewhere between all the high tech and those great television shows were some fantastic off the wall Baccarat games for me in Atlantic City and occasionally in Vegas that I experienced.

Like when I want to revisit the comforts of pre-streaming television, I can turn to Nick, COZI, TV LAND and several other cable TV channels and fall right back into the predictable rhythms of the new opening scene and the conflict introduced just before that first commercial break which somehow, magically, gets resolved just before the closing credits roll, each and every show.

And you know what, back in those days the baccarat room was just about the same as watching those kind of TV shows. The conflict introduced before the first commercial break, that very same conflict totally resolved prior to the closing credits began was the equivalent as to how we all viewed the shoes we played out. After that it was on to another shoe without much remembrance of any type on the previous one.  Not very many people played for the long term or played and thought anything else besides, what was happening right then and there. 

And as with most all TV shows these days which are actually mini-series, miss the beginning one and you have no real idea as to what is happening or who is who, etc.

But really with the procedural and elaborately plotted serial shows as I dub them, these days part of the appeal in my opinion is to have a low barrier to entry. Simply uncomplicated, so viewers can 'Zone Out' and scroll through their phones and won't be missing much. As long as the viewers are into them from the beginning of the season. 

A depressing commentary on attention spans these days I know, but also a real testament to the irresistible draw of the familiar.  When something is missed, just fill it in with what the viewer believes. 

Baccarat was a total different atmosphere pre-2000 and post 2000 wise that is. Pre 2000 clearly not so combative, without a doubt less systematic, staff and dealers actually trying to make the players comfortable, happy and resolve all problems prior to escalation without any doubt whatsoever.  Even the interaction among the players was generally one of total camaraderie and same side defense against the house, rather than I will wager against you and show you what a fool you really are, type of people. It really was like a TV show just generally a 2 1/2 hour classic show each episode instead of 30 minutes. 

You know what I can't help but laugh over—-all the time, how back then when the shoe was hot, almost all the players every single time would be taking large sums of chips out of the rack all in concert with each other. And these days it's almost always the complete opposite,  because I think they are following some type of miniseries for the long run. One or two people these days will be winning and all the others will be losing.

I guess today's play in so many ways really does resemble today's TV miniseries shows. It requires a full season, long run commitment. Structured that way because of things the casino has done as well as the people playing and everything they read on the high-tech Internet.

Myself, I'd rather get into it for a few hours and get spit out at the end of the shoe, with or without a profit, but not dependent upon anything except 'section' presentments, rather than being hooked into an intricate narrative-long term saga that desires to swallow you whole and maintain your presence while you are controlled by the long run waiting for your conflict to be resolved.

Quote From Asym's Posting:

"Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe."

Here are just a few to remember and prove the point.

There is always a trigger for one or two wagers, but that trigger will be there now and gone for the next 8 times, or occurring repeatedly for 8 times and gone the very next 8 times it comes around.  Playing a trigger or two for a flat bet or a flat bet with a Martingale either pro or neg, will only get you even in the short run and a loser in the long run, promise.

The profitable way to play baccarat is when something strong comes along, you pounce on it.  And 'Strong' does not only mean a streak of bankers or players consecutively repeating itself.  Make a couple winning wagers, positive progression the winnings and then pull down and stack up a bunch of winnings, lose the last hand when it goes away and repeat.  Then forget what happened and watch for the next 'whatever'.

And, remember you have to lose before you win.  With that said, then you continue.  Furthermore, when you win, you have to know how not to lose.

I really don't think it's a point of knowing how to win, I think it's more of a point of understanding how to win or understanding what winning is about.

But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times.  Those that say they found wagering 'such and such' after 'so and so' and how they hold a win of 'xyz' each and every time they play, are pure 100% liars. 

Good morning. The pandemic may have cleared the way for a casino in New York City.

(From the New York Times):

Betting on Gotham


Gambling companies have dreamed for decades of operating full-scale, Las Vegas-style casinos in New York City. Now, state authorities are on the brink of opening up the city, the country's last major untapped gambling market, and a flurry of extravagant proposals are competing for a handful of coveted licenses.

Imagine roulette wheels perched above the women's wear department at Saks Fifth Avenue. Blackjack by the boardwalk at Coney Island. Card games within spitting distance of the United Nations. Or maybe even a Caesars Entertainment casino steps from the lights of Broadway.

It is easy to understand why so many gambling companies are interested. Greater New York City is home to close to 23 million people and a destination for many millions more tourists each year. "For gambling companies, New York is their Mecca. It's the last big prize in the United States," my colleague Dana Rubinstein, who is covering the casino competition, told me.

But until recently, state law and a wall of local opposition short-circuited any serious planning for downstate casinos. What changed? A mix of economic and political factors accelerated by the pandemic. They made casinos in New York City or its suburbs not just palatable but desirable to state leaders, though locals will still have a say.

Today's newsletter will explain how New York City casinos developed from a notion into a serious prospect.

A decade in the making
There is a long history of politicians from Nevada to Louisiana using legalized gambling to try to stimulate the economy and boost public revenues. The idea has been to push gambling that was once done on the black market onto the tax rolls, and more recently, to keep residents from crossing state lines to gamble.

New York voters first approved a constitutional amendment to allow major casinos in 2013, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Native American tribes were already operating casinos in New York. But politicians from both parties — many of whom received generous contributions from the gambling industry — said that new casino sites could help create jobs, attract tourists and generate much-needed tax revenue.

To try to maximize the economic impact, New York's plan stipulated that the companies only be licensed at first to operate in areas most in need of revitalization, well outside of New York City. In the years that followed, casinos opened in the Catskills; outside of Albany; and elsewhere in upstate New York. Some have struggled to meet economic projections.

New York's gambling plan did provide for the possibility of as many as three downstate casinos, but only after a lengthy delay. And it did not guarantee that the licenses would be granted.

A pandemic-era shift
Now, state leaders are using the same logic that they applied to upstate casinos to try to accelerate and all but ensure the expansion of gambling in and around New York City. Gambling revenue nationwide hit record highs in 2022. In essence, New York is looking for a bigger piece of the action.

The pandemic only made that desire more urgent. Covid hit New York City, the state's main economic engine, especially hard. Midtown office towers remain only partially full, some wealthy individuals have left for lower-tax states and tourism has yet to rebound to prepandemic levels. The result has been less reliable revenue in city and state coffers, particularly as one-time federal aid sources dry up.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams, both Democrats, hope that the new casinos can help offset those financial losses and spark other beneficial development. Lawmakers have projected billions more dollars in licensing fees and regular tax revenues. Analysts, though, caution that those projections may be overly optimistic, and skeptics of the plans say the East Coast gambling market has already grown oversaturated.

There is also another, less obvious but still powerful driving force: New York's hyper-influential hotel workers union. When the pandemic hit the city's tourism sector hard, the group said as many as 95 percent of its members were out of work. Now, union leaders see gambling projects as one of their biggest opportunities to create more jobs for their members. The shift has been so important, it is reflected in the union's recent decision to add "gaming" to its name, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council.

The group has made itself a useful political weapon for Democrats in recent years, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and providing scores of campaign volunteers. In exchange, the union has exerted considerable pressure on state leaders to fast-track casinos around New York City, often working closely with gambling companies themselves.

You must engage in realism. Absolute 100% lack of  attitude with the physical adherence to realism during the situation you are engaged in.

After years of play, discussion, study and debate, I would have to list the four most important things to be conscious of, practice and totally engaging in, when you are gaming.

1)  Emotional = Complete neutralism but positiveness to enter into parlay progressions through readiness caused by confidence, camaraderie and related happenings.

2)  M.M.M. =  You must have a MMM that will benefit you with visible and physical positive results when you win as well as limit your losses. Gaming is available all the time, your winning is and hopefully going to produce positive results approximately 50% of your wagers and you must be able to define, use and employ additional tactics to add advantages to your buy-in and subsequently to your bank roll.

3)  Plan = Have a plan and stick with it when spot-on without deviation, but the ability to abandon when it is not profitable. Do not attempt to change, turn, convert, or believe you were were 'wronged' or that the shoe will totally pay you back in the short upcoming hands that still exist, etc. 

4)  Ability to Leave = You must have the complete ability without second thought or re-calculations to leave, whether winning or losing. The list is long but countless events will ruin wins, countless events will only add to the losses.  Both will happen, to experienced and non-experienced players. 

Quality & Substance = Stop believing the fallacy of the unspecified, undefined and 'magical', always beatable  events that are supposed to be the gateway to riches. They do not exist. In other words and in reality, if whatever it is, is producing wins for you within the shoe, continue it with the limited successful wagering decisions and acknowledgment of same, EVERY SINGLE HAND. If you do not, you will lose.

Ego & Attitude = We all have those two, no matter if you are aware of yours or not. But I will tell you something, from experience it is best to check them both when you sit down at the table. No two ways about it.

I promise you, they will hurt you the highest percentage of the times. You are not playing against the other players, the dealer or even the casino. You are playing with the shoe, please understand what I have preached, and preaching and what winning sections and shoes offer.

Your Play = Wagers/Bets/Thoughts.  (Yes thoughts are included as well). Must match what the shoe produces, nothing else. Anything else that you allowed to enter the picture, the process, the instant hand, etc., is additional baggage that will most likely hurt you in numerous ways.  Think about it and figure out what allowed you to win.  NOT what caused you to win!

Influence

Totally overpowering in the aura, the game, the whole scene.

Why?  Simply because money is powerful and that is the reason.  Nothing else.  Your mind cries out to you with clear and precise pictures of easy money and your actions follow what you perceive.

Follow what is happening and what is being presented. Do not attempt to have the shoe produce what you desire.

Get rid of all mind-frames, distractions, expectations, needs and laid out plans. Most everybody will not.  However, try it both ways and see which works better. Myself, I know.

We all have favorites. We all have great wins. We all have the desire to win. Set them aside and temporarily forget about them. Be conscious and be careful.

If it's not happening or you can not see it, stop for awhile.  It's truly the only way to play.

But, people continually Wager on Patterns, Trends or Streaks in the hopes they will appear. And when those do not, they keep wagering for those with larger and greater amounts of bets to make up. Then they stop wagering outside of their previous thoughts and then the shoe does a 180 and produces hands they needed just prior. The frustrating aura becomes larger and the cloudiness and gut wrenching turns, affects those people with huge impact. I see it all the time and I can safely say at every game I play. But the shoe was not ever going to really make those patterns, trends, streaks or anything else that the player(s) wanted.

Then the player(s) reverted their wagers back to the original desires and once again the shoe failed to produce any form of consistency to match their wagers.

What is all this called? It is called being influenced.

A word of caution.  RNGs in the free-test/free-trial internet apps or forums are by far easier to follow or predict than real gaming.  The short chop, long chop chop, clumps, streaks and equaling.  Be very careful of those apps and practice games, they are a 'suck in' for whom they are sponsored by.

Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band - Still The Same (Live From San Diego, CA / 1978)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl4fxNHUpvU


Pink Floyd - " Money " Waters / Gilmour / Mason/ Wright

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg


Kenny Rogers - "The Gambler" (Live)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aWsQIpfhbDo


CASINO" - THE ROLLING STONES - "Can't You Hear Me Knockin'?"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D6327WbFVe0



Talking Heads - Burning Down the House LIVE Los Angeles '83

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70



Ray Charles-Blackjack

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cIT5F9XMF6U

Police said the 35-year-old man was playing baccarat last week when he allegedly moved his losing bet to a winning section on the table while the dealer wasn't looking, collecting $1,000 in chips.


https://abc7chicago.com/rivers-casino-des-plaines-gambler-arrested/12624669/

Winning is Dangerous.  Mind Changing.  Disruptive to Schedules.

REASONING.  Winning is powerful.  Winning changes most all player's plans/schedules and protocols of wagering.  Why?  Because winning is reality and reality overrules anticipated and not yet realized possibilities. Remember that, it took me a lot of years to learn it I admit. 

Why did I just write that?  Because I developed a schedule of wagering selection to stretch over 105 sessions.  The sessions are short in the normal sense of bac play as well as not producing what the highest amount of regular bac players (and I truly mean almost all) are accustomed to winning.  However, the schedule each time, has a true 80% + chance of success and after just 3 sessions, all that is at risk, is the buy-in that is 100% profit as well.  In other words, not your bank roll, just a previously won buy-in as risk capital.  Remember, as I have preached over the years, your buy-in must be only a portion of your bank roll.

So why am I bringing up winning and this apparently negative info?  Because it is 100% fact and 100% in the casino's favor.  Read on.  I sat down at the bac table last week, bought in and as I reached my goal, not once but twice, winning affected me and sidetracked me to abandon my scheduled play, even though I accomplished my session goal twice and not even within the first session, but another one the following evening as well.

INFLUENCE IS HUGE.  Influence affects us all. Influence mixed with others winning or the all too famous, "I was going to bet that but wasn't sure so I sat out", and if the result was a win, you would have been influenced and affected. As well, if the result was you would have lost, again you would have been influenced and affected. So, if you don't think you can be influenced at the table you better sit down and really think it out, because you are continually influenced.

REMEMBER-ALWAYS ALWAYS.  Every shoe, things win and things lose.  Every shoe, those same things that won previously, can and do lose presently.  And, the same things that lost previously, win presently. Of course not in a 100% consistency of order, but an amount that will give you a large disadvantage if you are attempting a 'pure system/method'. 

COMBAT IN YOUR FAVOR.  What I will subscribe to and without question, be governed by, are the following:

* Emotional Neutralism;
* My M.M.M. allocation of my scheduled results;
* The Plan;
* The Absolute ability to leave with the results;
* An Absolute clear frame-of-mind that does not align; or compare anything except what my schedule is.

And all of those have to be coupled with:

>>>  Total conscious thought of the five items every second you are wagering or waiting to wager.

SIMPLE SUMMATION. IMO you cannot mix what works, what might work, what has made me profit in the past, avoiding what has cost me buy-ins in the past, following others and the hope luck is setting in; in order to create a positive and consistent goal in a game that is called baccarat.

You must have the upper hand with 200% total consciousness of the 5 highlighted areas in the section above, 'Combat In Your Favor'.

THERE IS NO OTHER WAY.

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Well guys, tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday season.

Wishing everyone a great Thanksgiving and a holiday season!

Pausing gratefully to express thanks to all for your contributions.  Efforts help make us a 'real' forum without all the infighting and similar.

Have a wonderful day and everyday thereafter!

Alrelax
Board Owner and Administrator

I want to state a basic example of Positive Progression Wagering.  IMO, I believe the 1-3-2-6 is the most lucrative and easiest to capture, while protecting the gambler of ruin, due to losing his realization of around the corner losses upcoming.

Remember, there are many variations, with denominations galore in Positive Progression Wagering. 

1-3-2-6. (Exampled using $100.00 unit):

Wagers:

First bet:  $100.00
Second bet:  $300.00
Third bet:  $200.00
Fourth bet:  $600.00

Reasonings:

First bet is a portion of your risk capital buy-in.  If you lose, you lost 1 unit of your risk capital.  If you win, parlay and move on to the second bet.

Second bet is parlaying your win and 1 additional unit from your risk capital buy-in for a $300.00 wager.  If you lost, you return to 1 unit wagering and you are down 2 units.

Third bet means you won your second wager.  Now you are in great position!  You return $200.00 to your buy-in stack, you set-aside $200.00 and you wager the remaining $200.00 from your $600.00 end of 2nd bet, on your third wager.  If you lose this wager, you are still $200.00 ahead for additional  wagering attempts at $100.00 each.  If you win this third bet you move to the fourth wager.

Fourth bet will progress to $600.00.  You will parlay the third bet win and add the $200.00 you had set-aside with a win from the second bet.  You have zero risk capital out there and a total wager of $600.00 looking for a $1,200.00 win.  If you lose, sure it sucks, but you didn't lose a penny of risk capital. 

If you win the fourth bet, you must go back to one unit wagering and right there is exactly where almost all players go down the wrong path and will greatly increase their wagering amounts with doom waiting. I would personally go back to the same amount or possibly 1.5 times, or a max of double.  Example.  If I was wagering the above $100.00 unit, I would start again with $100.00 or possibly $200.00. 

Just thought I would throw this out there.  Because there are highly debated continual topics regarding gambling with mathematics and/or statistical results versus the reality and instant 'what is happening', etc.

Everything worth anything in most things is presentment and what it actually is, not perceived, not history, not dreamsville, not what someone else says it should be or is going to be, not what another person makes up and so on. Presentment--Reality--Actual Events Happening.  IMO better and far superior in countless ways than the results of mathematicians/statisticians and systems experts. 

Okay everyone, here is a golden classic, The Vesper Martini. 

What is it?  Well it's a Martini that was introduced by Vesper Lynd, a fictional character from the James Bond author, Ian Fleming in the original 1953 Casino Royale movie. 

Here is a link to Vesper Lynd's bio.  Now bear in mind the catchphrase, "Shaken, Not Stirred", which was immortalized in Bond films.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesper_Lynd

3 oz Gin
1 oz Vodka
1/2 oz Lillet aperitif
Lemon twist

However, a bit of a twist with the same ingredients.

Equal parts of the 3 alcohol products.

Gin
Vodka
Lillet aperitif
Lemon twist

Shaken extremely well with 1 ice cube, rub the inside of the lemon twist on the rim of the glass all the way around it and drop it in the glass.

Enjoy!

One of the best in the entertainment world. 


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X3nr1xqbsbA&t=156s

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t3SPY13b64M

Stats for most all states concerning sports betting revealing the following:

Handle: Amount wagered over the time period.

Revenue: Amount of money kept by sportsbooks out of the amount wagered.

Hold %: How much revenue sportsbooks keep as a function of handle.

Taxes/state revenue: Taxes collected by state and local jurisdictions; or state share of proceeds in revenue-sharing markets.

The numbers reflect all reported numbers starting in June 2018 to date.


https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/

But to the highest majority at the tables it sure does. Either to 'show off' to the others, or to attempt to satisfy their own ego that they have it all figured out, etc.  Winning is money and it certainly spends the exact same way whatever the reason it was that caused you to wager.

Camaraderie is one thing among a couple/few players and getting on to a win-streak and clearly pumping up your wagers as well as your A-Alpha energy is another positive thing, but all of those that attempt control of the table because of their egotistical voodoo to show off and fuel their sheer guesses while continually pointing to the score board explaining why such and such has to happen, is total upcoming negativity by the boat loads about to set in. 

The keys to winning are really narrowed down to two things.

1). What wins this session/shoe/section probably won't, might to a limited manner, or definitely will not in the following ones.

2). Anything, including the presentments you have never experienced can and will occur and win.

Remember, at least try to anyways the above two things because baccarat is a game of presentments that make appearances as well as disappearances. The tricky part is there is no balance, rhyme or reason as far as the statistical definable number between the appearances and the disappearances.

First of all, wins are much tougher to handle and manage for most all players versus their losing sessions.

It's not easy to explain all in a thread on most forums, because the post will become lengthy, complex and take all sort of directions.  As well people will dismiss what the whole purpose of the thread is. But I'm going to attempt to put something out there, that I partially wrote about in the past and something that happened recently that's easy to explain.

Just a few days ago at a B&M casino, late at night after a full days work of 12 hours which was following a previous nights short play with a session win. So, I remove my original buy-in and returned to the casino with 'pure' win money having nothing to do with my bank roll or other personal pocket money. Which to me, gives me an extra advantage with deeper and clearer frame-of-mind when I start playing.

Having a complete clear frame-of-mind and a very positive motivational thought in my opinion are huge player advantage avenues. I was willing to risk the 'pure' win money I brought as a buy-in for the session. 

Okay, while playing you better realize plenty!  No matter if you are winning or losing.

How much can I win?
How much am I prepared to lose?
Can I recoup my current losses and get back positive?
I am winning, I don't want to give it back, should I stop?
Thinking, if I stop while winning, I can't win more.

While winning you are in many ways encouraged to continue, by yourself, other persons and even the casino personnel. Be careful and be conscious of EVERYTHING is all I can say, as it will give you 'fake' support. And that normally results in a loss of your winning an additional bankroll monies.

When you begin to lose while winning, it will most likely be more emotional, produce a greater level of frustration, causing you to blackout clear thought process quicker, and hamper your ability to clearly apply knowledge-experience and intuition in deeper amounts than if you did not already win.

When you have no more money, handling it is really no problem, no dilemma, you must quit, PERIOD.  But, winning is really the total opposite.

Anyone that has won sizable amounts at the table runs into a much more difficult decision making process. Play or quit. Countless people continue or stop and start again at another table or casino rather quickly. Doing so usually results in a complete loss of that win money as well as additional monies.

Most people do not subscribe to their own Levels and Plateaus or do they believe in withholding their buy-in and applying their win, to other outside things rather than gaming.  All they see is increased bets, longer play, larger winning, finally realizing they are conquering the game and similar false and very dangerous avenues they plan to adhere to.

All the gobbledygook on the Internet about applying wins to your bank roll, wagering larger and more aggressively is dead wrong. 100% wrong! It will hurt you and hurt you in very big ways.  Gaming, wagering, frame-of-mind and all the many other things that will determine your wins and losses and how you handle them, will not follow with larger bank rolls, larger bets, larger wins, 'type of plan'. At this time I can't put it into exact words but I will tell you, it will play on your decision making process the total opposite way of what you should be thinking and subscribing to.

Myself, I attempt to apply numerous M.M.M. traits, that I have written about. They work well for myself without any doubt. But discipline must still be applied and adhered to.  Which is very possible but not easy. Especially when the wins come and come nicely.

While I was winning the other night, after I doubled my buy-in, I did lose most of my win. Numerous thoughts of stopping were addressed and I went slightly outside of my norm of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of my win money. I did apply my buy-in as current win money, what I normally do not do. But in this case I did it.

I began to win again and really took off with larger and more aggressive wins. I became more aggressive and that paid off nicely, which is generally against the norm and past experiences I might add. I got to the point where I easily won 5 to 6 times the amount of my buy-in. Once again, the thought process was only to play and keep playing. Should I have stopped when I won 5 to 6 times the buy-in amount I was at?  I can not honestly answer that.  After a bit, I once again began to lose, my win level dropped quickly down to the point I quadrupled my buy-in.  I stopped.  To slow myself down, I was actually getting up and texting a member from this forum.  Sending pics of the score board, etc. 

The dilemma i was in, I was very conscious of was, buy-in doubled, lost win and continued playing got me up to 5 to 6 times the buy-in. Lost 1 to 2 times the buy-in. Stop or continue, plenty of 'won' ammunition to possibly get up to double what I had in front of me. Meaning 9 or 10 or 11 times the buy-in or double the four times buy-in and win sitting in front of myself. I wanted to stop, but equally as much, I wanted to continue. I stopped and cashed out.

I could have continued and maybe won a lot more than what I did, but I know of the extreme frustration that could have set in if I continued to lose and I am not a close friend with that kind of frustration.

Frustration is dangerous and frustration makes good/great players do stupid things. Remember that.

I had a nice win. Now at least a week or more without going back. And when I do, it is back to my same Level and Plateau before that win, I am comfortable with and I know I am at. Anything else IMO, experience and knowledge, is not to my advantage in anyway whatsoever.

There will be NO posting of links of any type if the member does not have 50 posts. 

I will not tolerate SPAM & UNAPPROVED ADVERTISING of any type on this forum!

If you have over 50 posts, you may post links, etc.  However, if those links are not related to a post and strictly for marketing/sales purposes, I will also prohibit those.  If you choose to sponsor the forum, then we can discuss sponsorship with banners and advertising, etc. 

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Admin & Board Owner

Drawdown

The importance of drawdown is extremely large. Do not discount the importance, value or advantage it will allow you to have. As you will lose singular, multiple and numerous wagers in-between your wins, you must have a buy-in large enough to survive the downside you are subject to. And within that buy-in you have your drawdown. 

What Is It?

It is the size of your buy-in with the amount of your wagers you can lose before you begin to capitalize on the game. Simply it affords you the chance(s) to apply your wager preferences and strategies to materialize.

How Do You Plan Your Drawdown?

Naturally the larger the better. At least in most cases. But practicable versus reality, is the case for the highest majority of all players.  You will need to incorporate your drawdown amount with your M.M.M. Your drawdown is not always your initial buy-in. Although I personally favor one buy-in, and the buy-in as a risk capital, the drawdown is virtually the buy-in, within most all cases. If you favor planning for multiple buy-ins rather than a singular one, then your drawdown will be split as well.

As each of us wager differently, flat betting, progressives, etc., You need to generalize your bet sizes and the amount you are comfortable to lose. Then you need to divide the amount of wagers by your comfort level and you will come up with a drawdown amount. Example. You are comfortable losing $4,500. You wager $150 with one time negative progressions occasionally.  You generalize you can lose 12 to 20 wagers before you win a series of wagers you can apply your wins to your M.M.M. for application to a 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, system or something similar. So $150 times 20 equals $3,000 and say 10 negative progressions at $150 each equals  an additional $1,500. So, you need a $4,500 drawdown amount. IMO, you should also have a three times wager of an extra amount and in this case I'll give it my preference of $200 wagers if I had a base wager of $150, for another $600 total.  Add another $600.

EXAMPLE

Base Wagers:  $150.00 X 20 = $3,000.00
Negative Progressions:  $150.00 X 10 = $1,500.00
Extra Wagers:  $200.00 X 3 = $600.00

A $5,100.00 Drawdown would be a very comfortable amount in the hypothetical wagering scenario of $150.00 by a player that engages in some negative progressions as well. 

Control Of Your Game

Do not allow your buy-in, drawdown, etc, to control your game. To a certain extent, your decision making process including your wagering amounts must not be totally controlled by your drawdown size, buy-in balance, etc.

Use your drawdown as a guideline, replace it immediately with your wins and use it if you are less than even money. When you capitalize on your game, apply your every so often cumulative wins to your M.M.M. The rest will work itself out in your advantage, if you are employing a solid M.M.M.

Cumulative Wins

Wins should be maintained sideways from your buy-in/ drawdown amount. As I said, use your sporadic cumulative wins to replace your lost Wagers and begin your other 1/3rd, 1/3rd, set-asides as well. This is Paramount!  That is the most important task you must engage in for proper M.M.M., that will give you a solid advantage to maintain both your win profits and your buy-in.

If you question several different financial experts to define risk and draw down, you will get unclear answers. What you will get is various ramblings of incomplete ideas, attempting to describe variables that might contribute to risk, but not what the risk actually is. Very similar to what systematic gambling writers often write about as well as how casinos and  the industry present the simplistic nature of each game.

So, IMO you must figure it out for yourself according to your style, desires, experience and your goals. Because it is all individualistic to each of us. However, applying a proper M.M.M., Drawdown, and the rest of it what I describe in this posting is not.

Think.  Think hard!

Not Systematic But Opportunistic

Think. Exploiting chances offered by circumstances without reference to statistics or beliefs.

I must expose the ultra importance of extreme advantage a player can give himself if he uses proper drawdown with a reasonable buy-in, in relation to his wager sizes and goals. Gambling for the player is opportunistic.  Period. Gambling for the casino is systematic.  Period.

Every gambler will face countless singular or numerous series of drawdowns, that will lead themselves to seriously question their strategies and beliefs. Learning to recognize them and deal with them positively, will probably be the hardest task each of us face. And, I must add the largest and most harmful performance each gambler faces is emotional disruption to his decision making process, that he inflicts upon himself.

While it is in your best interest to totally remove the emotion out of wagering, it is almost impossible. This is a widely debated and discussed subject for as long as I can remember. However, let's talk frankly, let's discuss the truth at most every gaming table by most every player.

Textbook psychology will dictate if strictly practiced, a player should become as in different to a win as a loss. However, becoming completely detached requires a level of confidence in a players every single game ability, and nothing else. Extremely difficult for most all players to do. But let's be conscious of it and let's work on it and remember it most of all at the gaming table.

Let me define.  The lack of good sense, the foolishness and wishful fake foresight seems to have most every player believing chasing losses is some kind of golden rule of gambling. What am I talking about? Two things. One is repetitive negative progression and the other is, continued wagering to recoup losses.  In other words, increasing your wagers until you win is so erroneous, it is catastrophic in most cases, unless you manage it through proper M.M.M., when you are winning.

Negative progression and continued wagering to recoup losses and begin to win, are perfect examples of gamblers fallacies. But they are employed day after day at most every table that exist in casinos. That is why players lose their winnings if they do not strictly adhere to a proper M.M.M. plan with a 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, division for your wins or something very similar to it. Why? Because two things. One, you will give up a greater percentage of wins and buy-in funds to recover previous losses because the drawdowns will destroy your bankroll that could have been employed making you profits. Two, believing that negative progressions and continued wagering to recoup losses will only lead you to ignoring randomness in your evolution of winning and losing. Even for successful gamblers. How can I state the above? Because I have had countless real experiences as well as research data for it.

What it boils down to is, players dramatically increasing their wagers after generating sizable profits during small/smaller series of wagers. The highest amount of all players lost almost all of it again in a considerable small/short amount of time if they did not subscribe to and adhere to a proper M.M.M. with something similar to my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, division and application of your winnings.

Summation

Be intelligent, understand drawdown, emotional distraction, and opportunistic wagering over systematic beliefs. I will probably look a little bit foolish to say, what happens in winning is partly luck, where cause-and-effect were loosely connected. But it is true. Intelligent players will avoid the temptation of looking at outcomes and assuming they made them happen or knew they were coming. Instead, they will realize how great understanding drawdown, emotional distraction avoidance and opportunistic wagering gave them advantages while religiously capitalizing on the game when the opportunity presented itself.

Reactions based on opportunity. Realize what they are and how to take advantage of them.

I would much rather lose wagers with a positive progression of winnings and expectation; then to win wagers with a negative progression because I was playing repetitive catch up.

Patterns and Trends appear and disappear in the game of baccarat. It is a widely debated subject for as long as I can recall and I have been steadily playing this game since the 1980s. The math statisticians will claim, "Gamblers Fallacy" and the lay-person Baccarat player will claim, "Visual Observance", which entices them to wager or not wager a certain something. 

Fact is, Patterns and Trends of all types do appear and disappear with varying existence in their lengths. Always has and always will. What complicates the matter of observation and recognition is, that Patterns/Trends might be very short in length or considerably long. They can also be anywhere in between the two depending on how you judge something that is happening. Another complication that adds confusion is how Patterns/Trends enter and exit the shoe presentments.  And of course how quickly you are able to observe and act upon the presentments occurring. 

The three most important areas of Patterns and Trends are:

1). Type.  Chop-Chop, Doubles, Triples, 1's-3"s, Naturals Cut, Ties Cut or Ties Stick, Bead Plate Subsequent Repeating, Player and Bankers Streaks. 

2).  Length.  The # of hands of the entire Pattern or Trend.

3).  Enter/Exit.  The coming about of the Pattern or Trend and the Exiting of it.

There is absolutely no foolproof solid prediction or identifiers, that will be consistently correct to say when anything will occur. But those Patterns and Trends will most certainly happen without rhyme or reason.   

There are also varying strengths of the duration and repetition of the Pattern or Trend itself. To better understand varying strengths, you must understand what Sections and Turning Points are and their limited amount of hands that form them.

It does not really matter why those Patterns and Trends appear and disappear, or how they come about or do not come about. The absolute object is to win as much as you can when they do appear. They appear and are showcased by the presentments they are making. Simple.

Here—an example. Think!

The exact same as football think about it. Touchdowns. Run 80–90+ yards. Happens, but few and far in between the regular, every day plays and games. Can there be more than one huge completed play in the last few minutes? Sure, it happens, what about the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, 4th quarter? Just an example.  Look at all the 'IMPOSSIBLES" within those few minutes.  No different than Bac.

Look at YouTube, Bills Vs. Chiefs 2021 AFC Divisional Game.

Winning. Chop/doubles/triples/quadruples, next. It will happen in small sections frequently. Sometimes consistently for a large section 18-30 hands and sometimes smaller sections, over and over and over again with different types of Patterns/Trends, but none the less, Patterns and Trends. Always has been and always will be. No need to debate the existence or the non-existence of them, because they will always come about.

You must totally understand and respect; drawdowns, smaller buy-ins and larger wager amounts. All three will come into play and you need to be conscious of them and understand each and know how to manipulate and use them. Here's an example of pumping it up and going with the flow when you were winning.

   6 Wagers                                   3 Wagers

  $300                                           $300
  $300    (win = 600 profit)            $600  ($300 back to stack) 
  $300    (win = 900 profit)            $900  (win = $1,800 profit)                           
  $300    (win = 1,200 profit)
  $300    (win = 1,500 profit)
  $300    (win = 1,800 profit)

Which set of wagers would you rather engage in?  Think!  Most of us do not at the bac table while everything is happening. 

You have to understand what a win is. Once you do, you will be able to wager heavier when you recognize it and as well, when it is optimum to your wagering desires reverting to lighter wagers or stopping when it is going away.

From years of experience: Do not dwell and put off wagering when you are into a Pattern or Trend formation because IMO, that is the number one confuser and destroyer of 'easy money' and 'quick profits' at the baccarat table.  Another highly debatable subject, but I stand by what I just said.

FACT. Math, stats, house edges and whatever advantage we're used in the past, that was game specific are all not applicable to the shoe at the instant time you are sitting down to. Why? Because you will not lose or win the amount of whatever it was before, that you claim edge or advantage percentages to and that's another reason so many baccarat  players miss apply their own knowledge and experience they can easily benefit from.

The one thing that will hold pretty accurate, is if you specifically Wager a certain something, time and time again, you will end up losing large sums of your bank roll. Because nothing stays the same, over and over, shoe after shoe, in the game Baccarat. Nothing. The same thing(s) that allowed you to win, will cause you to lose as well. Get it in your mind and live by it. Think about it, with an open mind and you will see that. So simple and so factual, but so few really do believe it.  Just thinking about that electronic scoreboard and what I just wrote.  The casino spends thousands and thousands of dollars for the purchase and the maintenance of, it is probably the number one reason they are there. The casinos witness every shoe where the players lose their money saying and pointing to that scoreboard about what they desire to come about, because it did previously or on other shoes and it doesn't appear. It's like a billboard saying PURCHASE ME I AM COMING AROUND, and then a few minutes later, sorry not right now.

Why do players lose all of their buy-in almost always? Because of the previous paragraph. Because they attempt the same, over and over and over. False perceptions. Full of them in so many aspects. Be careful. Think. Realize.

Another player disadvantage is the attempt to get back their previous loss or two. Then a burst of win will come the players way and he has no definitive plan. You have to be able to realize with absolute certainty, the thoughts that are not panning out for whatever reason(s).

Winning Within Sections.

Pumping it up with positive progression and aggression. A 1-3-2-6 or a full win parlay with subsequent pull down each following win is IDEAL.  $250 initial bet, $250 win, $500 bet and pull down every subsequent $500 win.  First and second wager is at risk and starting with the third win, you recoup your $250 risk and profited $250 as well. If you can survive a fourth win you will be ahead $750 and have $500 still in play risk-free from your buy-in.

THINK!  Progressive and aggressive wagering will help trump flat betting by far.

When  to Wager. 'Reasonable By Realized'. I like that saying. You have to bring into existence. Cause to seem real by actual money. Then you feel it. Apply and consistently be achieved. Use the winnings for a proper 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 M.M.M. allocation and you'll be on your way to profit and not being a loser.

Pulling It Down With Complete Control.

When losses begin you must pull down your wagers with 100% emotionless reflection, no matter the following hands outcomes!!!  You have to be able to figure out if it's a few hand losing occurrence or a more domineering losing time that you cannot come out of. The worst thing to do is sit there and enter into the, 'should have, didn't do and lost so many easy hands to win' scenario. You will become your biggest enemy and buy-in/bankroll killer if you engage in that stupid witnessing and tormenting of a decision you made. Yet, so many players stand there and torture them selves, re-enter the game and I would say the upper 90 percentile of them, straight loose at that point. I just gave you years and years of experience. I hope some some people can take it to heart and use it to improve their game.

Equally as important is knowing when to quit. You better figure it out and subscribe to it with absolute conviction.

Not Chasing Anything.

Chasing is the absolute worst emotional inflection you can impose upon yourself!  PERIOD.  Chasing destructs buy-ins, bankrolls and good/great players. Hard and fast.

Baccarat is the easiest game to win and lose. Think. Realize. Do not fall prey to all of the common every day misunderstandings and when you do win, be smart, be stable and know what to do with those winnings. I've written about it many times, go back and read them because they will help you and not hurt you.

Now The Downside to Following A Pattern/Trend.

1s and 2s.  Made a 3 and kept going for 8, 10, 12 hands repeatedly.  You lost.  Playing the chop.  Goes double, you lost.  Wager the double and it goes chop, you lost.  An easy plan, but not very easy to keep it in a Win mode or maintain your absolute lack of emotional neutrality and pure focus.

Emotions and frustrations set in and it gets worse when you start losing. That is why I continuously write about emotions and frustrations causing cloudiness and the inability to focus and capitalize on presentments that would otherwise be extremely easy to follow and profit from.

When the 4 IAR comes, so many swear it will cut, maybe when it is strong sections, very little chop, or straight 1s and 2s, but waiting for a 4 IAR, wagering for it to cut and make a unit or two, I just never witness the profit being held onto. I always witness it being given back in attempted repeats. 

And as the highest majority of so many players fail to realize, a consistent and mechanical wagering bet will bankrupt you.  What happens is, many people render the factual (what is actually happening) as absolute because of their own failure to understand positiveness and the negativity of randomness.

You have to understand what are just 'beliefs' rather than 'suspended reality'.

Beliefs are made up of:

Emotions
Thoughts
Previous experiences
Projection of what you desire

Suspended Reality is made up of:

Presentments as they are forming
Sections and Turning Points
Equalization and up to a + - 10/ + - 20 leeway (as the turning points)
1s, 2s and 3s

Please Note:  Ref the +-10/+-20 leeway, the turning points I refer to, are NOT the 'Turning Points' that stop and start Sections.  They are the turning points whereas, the equalization begins for the side that is minus/negative. 

Ideally, you need to find a connection to a source. Then let it flow. Your wagering and MMM of wins.

Don't get caught up. Go with it. No matter if your beliefs and/or confidence is there with the wager because once you lose with strong beliefs and/or confidence on something, you will generally hold it against yourself and that is no good for winning ability in any way whatsoever.

View your wagering as a channel. A temporary read, a short path to stay on track.   Get on, be safe, profit, get off. There's nothing else. Think about that.

There are plenty of sections that you will have perceived to happen. And they did. You will not always understand how they came about, the order of them or how and why and what you expected was not present. You have the absolute freedom to choose. Positive or negative. To follow or not to follow. To cut or stick because of anything.

So many players will always tend to favor various things prior to their wagering, that causes them to make a decision. It works at times and it does not work at others. But in my opinion and that of many many others, what they are doing is causing themselves to completely miss most opportunities that could be capitalized on.

If you get caught up into any type of systematic scheduled wagering, IMO, experience and intensive research, you are going to get harmed. 

Know what the game is. Know what the game is not. Be smart. Be conscious. Think clear and non-biased when you wager.

Thanks,
Alrelax
Admin/Forum Owner & Baccarat Player