Paul Newman, The Colour of Money (1986) quote: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."

Cara Bertoia: "It's hard to walk away from a winning streak, even harder to leave the table when you're on a losing one."

R. E. Shay: "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit."

Phil Hellmuth: "If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time."

Wayne Gretzky: "You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

Terry Murphy: "A gambler never makes the same mistake twice. It's usually three or more times."

Edmund Burke: "Gambling is a principle inherent in human nature."

Baltasar Gracián y Morales: "Quit while you're ahead. All the best gamblers do."

Nicholas Dandalos: "Remember this. The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."

V. P. Pappy: "Gambling is not about how well you play the games; it's really about how well you handle your money."

Understanding the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering and how those fit within a great money management method is not all that complex.

In my opinion, to take your game to the next level you must be smarter, better and focused, while being absolutely 'on board' with your play. If you are not, you will add more negative than positive to your game. I promise you with all my heart that you will.

Besides from the tangibles of a player advantaged money management method, such as bankroll, buy-in risk funds, drawdown understanding, 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd division of your win money, etc., there is a very large part of money management methods which you must understand what your plan is, what your goal is and how you are going to accomplish those.

There certainly are intangible stories behind the numbers that can never be known or in any way guaranteed within any shoe. However you must understand the reasoning behind your play and how you capture the possibilities that are actually opportunities.  So, you must have a targeting focus to get you there.  If you don't, you will most likely fail. 

While bet selection and the frequency of them is very important to winning, without a money management method including a tangible working target incorporating the knowledge of minimum, average and maximum wagering, you are failing to add pure advantage to your play.

Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table.

Your wagering that is lost, will create conflict within yourself. And conflict has a lot to do with playing Baccarat in my opinion. Why? Because conflict will change your frame of mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought. That is not good for you. Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about. Stay within your comfort zone.  You can find your comfort zone if you understand the proper use of the minimum, the average and the maximum. 

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go, or if you were remaining neutral, but had a feeling it was going to be a winning result coming about.  As you witnessed  others at the table begin to prosper nicely, conflict can also come. Be aware.

Conflict is a deep and complex subject and all I did after hours of rereading my notes, was just to highlight the above.

Putting it all together. Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are. Such as, are your decisions from the previous hands, triggers and superstitions, the events themselves? Or, are they from the results you have the deduced down from the other people there playing at the table? Huge difference and huge consequences will come about. I literally promise you that. Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to be better, make clearer decisions and be better focused while dealing with the events as a great player should be.

I have learned money management methods properly formed and believed in by players are the absolute most valuable and important advantage to playing Baccarat. A Money Management Method is so much more than a stop loss and stop win for a player. I have written in depth about what a real money management method is and you can certainly find those threads on the forum.

Baccarat tables in brick and mortar casinos have a varied range of minimum and maximum wagering limits. The highest majority of casino properties have limits such as:

$10-$25-$1,000
$25-$1,000
$25/$50-$2,000/$2,500
$25/$50-$5,000
$25/$50/$100-$10,000

Most of the higher limit rooms have a limit such as:

$100-$10,000
$200-$15,000
$300-$20,000
$300/$500-$25,000

There are variations around the country of course, but those above are a good example of the highest majority of properties.

Minimums-Averages-Maximums

You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!

Understanding the limits and your targeting within.

Naturally the first way is to target the table minimum. My tangible thought is, that you will focus on accomplishing at least the minimum without the possible loss of too much of your buy-in risk capital funds. Slowly with little to no stress you make it count with just a little bit of parlay and progression. 

The second way is to target the average, kind of a midway point of the table limits as well as what you observe others doing. Yes, a larger goal and an increase of stress and emotions without a doubt. But if you can achieve the average comfortably, you will end up making a considerable difference above the minimum wagering.

The last target is to be able to employ with confidence, positive wins at risk and within a safe draw down amount, the maximum wagering limit or close to it. This last target must be handled with extreme self-control no matter if you win or lose. This target will place you into a new level but you have to be comfortable with it as well as realize you cannot continually wager it.

So many players as well as system sellers and book authors of gambling, will never agree with me. However, after years and years of observation, playing and realization, I know the importance of expectations, desires and tangibility of each of the three; minimums, averages and maximums. 

THE MINIMUM.

You have to understand each of the three targets and how you can win or lose under each. Maybe the easiest way to do that is comparing each to the status quo. What is the status quo? It is simply the existing state of affairs. The current situation, hand after hand for a small section of the shoe you were actively engaging in wagering on.

So to start with, you target very little. The minimum. Minimum can also be viewed as the default because it is close to zero.

You can certainly think of the targets here as getting onto the interstate and off again fairly quickly from a local side street.  You accelerate to a certain speed, monitor and the readjust your speed and decelerate.  Beginning at the minimum, accelerate to the average and peek at the maximum while knowingly focusing on the soon upcoming exiting points and how to get there.

I'm probably going to get chastised for this tangibility protocol assumption, but not many of us will ever sit down, buy in and begin with the maximum target.

I have deduced down to a tangible definition, we begin at or near the minimum as it is a lower threshold for loss, emotions, frustration and less chance to cloud and ruin our frame of minds we strive (or should) to maintain. For myself the minimum target is used as a default target and to keep me in the game while I pursue the possibilities and opportunities I desire.

THE AVERAGE.

Now about the average wagers at the table. Let's say it's a $25-$2500 table. For sake of discussion let's called the minimum $25-$75 wagers and the average $100-$1000. Why? Because in my opinion that is where most of the players will be at the dollar value of the wagers.  The average bets will be in contrast to the minimums. The reason being is the difference between the targeting of the players, their bankrolls and the buy-ins risked and how aggressive each of us are.

Of course if you desire to wager only the average bet, your buy-in will need to be considerably larger than it would if you only target the minimum bet.

If your style is to accumulate a certain amount of win money before raising your target to average from minimum, then that would be in contrast to those that begin and stay within the minimum target until a certain event comes about and they then proceed to the average target for a select hand or two or three.  Completely different styles of acceptable wagering.  That is why following another is not a very good choice because of conflicting styles and goals.

Concentrating on the average makes perfect sense when your buy-in risk capital supports such with a calculated and followed with full self-control while drawdown when losing occurs. 

If you target the average you must recognize your abilities, buy-in volatility and emotions that will come on harder and stronger than targeting the minimum.  Why?  Because a large set of psychological reasons that confuse the highest majority of players as to their wagering decisions to sustain within their target plays on your subconscious altering you.

THE MAXIMUM.

Naturally if you understand the minimum and the average, you will understand the maximum as well. However I'll throw the following out here.

If you have progressed and target the maximum on a focused basis, you will not have many of the obstacles, the frustrations and negative emotions that other type of players will encounter regularly. However, your bank roll and buy-in risk capital will have to be intensely larger than those that target the average as well as the minimum. 

You will have to be extremely focused on frame of mind and clear conscious decisions, that are impeccably spot on without distractions of any type, or large sums of your buy-in risk capital and your bankroll will suffer in much larger and quicker accumulated quantities than all other players. With no exception. In addition there are little chances of recouping and grinding back to an even status when you play focused maximum.

Of course there are bursts and one time, two time, three time, etc., wagers within the maximum range that can easily easily be sustained, from those playing comfortably within the average. 

I guess what I am trying to say is, that most all people working out would not immediately lay down and benchpress their absolute limit, time after time after time from start to finish for their workout. Wouldn't it be more advantageous to those in attempting a maximum to create the opportunity in order to do the maximum with ease and caution while staying within their safe limits?

Targeting the maximum wagers are intense because of the dollar value. To myself the maximum works well with well-planned transition from the average for a limited amount of bursts, with total conscious thought and the knowledge, willpower and self-control to retreat before being defeated.  At least the highest majority of times. 

In Closing.  Minimum.  Knowledge, patience, understanding the process and a focus to move into the average. Average. Realization with application with comfortable continuance for what allows you to win and the ability to develop a Money Management Method that supports your play. Maximum. Short inconsistent bursts that do not cause you defeat and total conscious realization that maximum is to be highly respected and must be walked away from when you lose without any affect upon yourself.

Mark, if you were to wager $25.00 straight up per number, for say 18 numbers per spin, how would you pick the numbers. 

There are 12 rows of 3 numbers each.  One on each row and another 6 divided?  Or, more on top and bottom or elsewhere, etc.?

Also, would you adjust the numbers to less or greater than 18?

Curious. 

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Last night, sitting and talking about the game.

1).  Do not ignore the game to its true principles.  And that is exactly what almost all players do because, of their relentless frame-of-mind.

2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them. 

3). Ignore the past as total irrelevancy when the fire erupts.  Because if you do not, all you will do 100%  is pour fuel on it.  Guaranteed.

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

6). Thomas Paine said, "The mind, once enlightened cannot again become dark". 

The absolute most unintelligent award, goes to..........the Las Vega casino maid that idolizes Daddy, Master and the King!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/las-vegas-maid-stole-768-170236431.html

I have mentioned 'The Stride' before. I try my best to keep it in mind while playing. You will always begin on the black line (see picture). Success is your session goal and failure is your loss of buy-in funds.

Although it will seldom happen, where a player goes straight to success or failure, he will usually hover within the areas between even and success as well as even and failure. Point here, is be conscious of this fact and remain conscious of it while you play. I do believe it has the power to guide you and allow you a better and clearer realization as to what your decisions are producing or taking away from you. 

Successful people do not bring success to a gaming table, but most of the tangible successful people sit down with that attitude close to or at 100% mark, each and every time. But being successful or unsuccessful in many things of your life really has nothing to do with playing the game of baccarat.  Unlike what so many truly believe. 

Success in the game of baccarat for each session we are talking about reaching your goal and winning money. The amount varies from person to person. As well, failure is the loss of your buy-in funds no matter who you are or what goals you have, period.

What so many fail to believe in and remember is, that the shoe is the shoe that will present each and every hand the way it is set to. Nothing can change it or alter it. What does happen and what hurts us are the following:

Emotions

Frustrations

Money Management Methods (Wrong & Lack Of)

An unclear understanding of winning and losing

A failure to leave with win money

A failure to have proper knowledge and use of buy-in versus bankroll funds you are risking

In my opinion, most all players create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action by their outcomes. Often irrespective of the decision making process. That is exactly the point and reason where they go wrong. What it takes, is foresight (intangible), planning (tangible) and a solid base (tangible) to completely and without wavering to adhere to and get what you really want. Because what you want, most always, will not quickly fall onto you or in front of you. And that is why so many players waiver in their decisions and play recklessly.

You have to judge decisions on a process, rather than an immediate outcome as a general rule, bar a few clear advantaged events occasionally that will present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results/outcomes within a section of the shoe, that are so blatantly positive or negative that can be to your advantage, just use it to improve or change courses of action to your benefit.

Remember, when you sit down, buy-in and get your stack in front of you, you are walking down 'The Stride'.  Where you wind up from there depends on the things I have mentioned herein. 

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them? 

To take advantage of opportunity within shoes of Baccarat, you will also have to face adversity (lack of opportunities).

#1). This is a long read!  If you are serious, sit down and read it, absorb it and comment on it.

#2). This is a subject that affects us all, we all have our opinions on it and while some are hell-bent how it affects them, others could care less. But I know that if you understand randomness and its advantages and disadvantages, you can profit nicely from the game.

What may or may not present itself.    And to me, that is the absolute key, the absolute Bac player's advantage.

Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well. 

Understanding and defining everything that might come about is unrealistic.  Although it is usually used as a defense against any type of non-mathematical or statistical result from being understood and used by the theory type of players, but in all reality, it works more so, if used in the correct manner and interpretation.  Meaning, the player has to have the ability, vision and experience to reason with the info and data he is instantly compiling. 

Even as another, whom I believe is a real player at B&M's casinos said on another message board, "87% of all Bac games are 1's, 2's and 3's.  So stay within those 1's, 2's and 3's section and you will win more consistently."  Okay, great theory.  Not easy at all.  What you are really doing is pre-planning and scheduling your wagers, with the presentments of the shoe having to match your desires and planned bets.  You are not matching the presentments of the shoe, just because you figured out what the shoe does the most over so many statistical hands studied. 

I do agree with the 87% figure.  It is just that after so many years of playing Bac in B&M's all over, I just know you might deal with a greater amount of the 13% shoes than you will the 87% shoes.  At least for the time you sit down to play.  As well, even when you are at those 87% shoes, what is to assure you the 1's, 2's and 3's will continue?  You have an infinite bank roll, you have a certain amount of buy in chips to risk. 

Statistics are compiled from pretty large amounts of played shoes.  Just say out of 1 Million Shoes which would be approximately 80 Million Hands played, that the 87%/13% actually existed, true and correct.  That means, 10 Million Four Hundred Thousand hands were not 1,s, 2,s and 3's.  That is huge.  And all that number will do is climb, using 10 Million Shoes or 100 Million Shoes, etc. 

I am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them. 

There is no way to assure yourself, that you are within any percentage section of a mathematical or statistical result of the game.  What I gave you above regarding the 1's, 2's and 3's, is just one example of the tens of thousands of systems, advises, info insights, triggers, etc., etc., etc., that is floating around out there about Bac wagering. 

The only things that exists all the time in Bac is randomness and uncertainty.  The players put different spins on each depending on what they are experiencing.  Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.  Again, just depends on what a player is experiencing with the shoe presentments being made as well as his wagers.  What it really boils down to is, that all wagers are correct as well as, not correct at the very same time.  Just depends on who you are, the winner of the hand or the loser of the hand. 

Baccarat, Probability & Randomness Thoughts

These are strictly my thoughts after many decades of playing the game of baccarat within B&M casinos.

*  The highest amount of people will attempt to apply some type of mathematical and statistical "Mumbo Jumbo" to the game with & while extremely miscalculating math, statistics and probability.

*  Important point: 'It's more random than we think, not it is all random.' Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for all forms of hard work, skills, professions, scholastic degrees, etc.)

*  As much as we want to 'keep it simple, stupid', it is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous to ourselves when playing baccarat or in fact, anything to do with casino games whatsoever.

*  Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

*  Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance and it does not matter if that is pertaining to baccarat, casino gambling or in fact, most any type of business.

*  One common theory for why people pursue leadership as well as idols, is because of 'social emotions' which cause others to be influenced by a person due to physical signals like charisma, gestures, and stride.

*  This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all 'puffed up' in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful/desirable  person in no matter what you are doing, participating in or even playing within a casino.

*  'The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation.'

*  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)

*  Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative 'WHATEVERS'.
  Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.  IMO, applies to countless things in our lives, not just baccarat and gambling.

*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

*  We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can realize informational and financial gains by getting an insight or an advantage of some type, etc., that most times it will falsely influence you to make the wrong decision, applies enormously in gambling at baccarat.

*  Every man believes that he is quite different, better, smarter, and as well just plain more valuable than the next.  Almost all of us think that the next man can not offer anything of use, intelligence or benefit to them.

*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

*  The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous standing) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and 'cutting edge' research, AKA 'Mumbo Jumbo').

*  There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside.  Almost all people gambling will have the toughest time understanding this as well as applying this to the game of baccarat.  Why?  Because it challenges their intelligence and emotions.

*  Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain strategies will be fruitful and countless ones if played on a regular basis (everyday) will prove themselves worthless or just plain wrong, etc.

*  If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefiting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events that will come with the game.  They have to and they will, in complete contrary to what almost all players want, desire or are willing to accept.

*  Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle, but these cycles are often short to medium term successes, all of course in time relevance. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long term. That is what the masses of baccarat players will not subscribe to or accept and believe.  The same can said for setting huge goals.  Unsustainable and sub-optimal for the long term.

*  Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between 'this has never happened' and 'this will ever happen.' You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty.  Which is exactly the way it is.  And when dealing with baccarat, getting 85 wagers correct and 15 incorrect can also be applied and do it without conformation and proof.

*  There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong.

*  Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event.  Does that mean the other 49 out of 50 was wrong or false?  Same with the theory and the application of mathematics.  As that too may not apply to every situation or event. 

*  It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances apply, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share.

*  Pascal: 'the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.'  My first thought: Yes, but what if you believe in the 'wrong' God?  Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in?  Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed?  To me, it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God?  So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here.  IMO and only IMO.  But I am writing here and you are reading.  Again, you do not have to believe me or anything I write.  You write and give it a true.  Whew, another thought I had to put out there. 

*  Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again.  Then you accomplished a false positive goal and you have to work even harder to move on once again to a higher and a better plateau.  That is why I wrote many things about plateaus and levels, remember?

*  Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.  Simple, true and applies to most all of us baccarat players.

*  Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing).  A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.  When you hit the win with the huge payoff, you never did anything wrong or negative.  LOL, but so true.

*  Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward.
 
*    We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy when others are involved, otherwise it would always be mass confusion, arguments and stalls.

*  Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid.

*  We seem to focus too much on local changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend.  Same as what is happening in the shoe of baccarat. 

*  'Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.'

*  Emotions are 'lubricants of reason.'  We actually need to feel things to make decisions.  We do not think so, but that is not the way it works.

*  Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic.  If you did, you would have no time to actually employ or live the things you so desire.

*  Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.  Which so many gamblers will never ever understand or adhere to.

*  How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.

*  Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.

*  Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault.  You executed the move that you failed at, not them.

*  The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.

*  Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.  It takes skill to realize when that something is there to act on and how you will act successfully on it.

*  "We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good 'aesthetics, ethics and wrong, fooled by randomness with us in baccarat, seems to flow from just that."

*  When baccarat players win, they suddenly begin to black out all reasoning, past mistakes and negativity until they begin to lose once again.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Some posted previously.  I revisited and merged a few threads of mine and added because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Which is, not to present what it is setup to produce.

Thanks for reading.  Comments, thoughts, experiences?

We take for granted events will happen as well as events not happening.

And both cost us money, all of us. I was at the casino the other night. Bought in at nearly the end of a shoe, few hands left. Won a few and lost a few. Ready for a new shoe. Shuffle, cut and burn. Shoe began.

Shoe starts, Natural 9 player. So I thought here comes the player dominating in the beginning once again. I bet Banker and lost the first hand. Then a double Banker came and won both. Stayed Banker for the 4th hand, but a strong player came and it was a Banker with a seven and player had zero for its first two cards. Third card for the player was an eight. So floor is quiet and it's just myself and one other player.  Floor person is well-known and talkative. Gives out max comps plus. Comes over and says, look easy game 1-2-1-2. Now lost two and won two. Slightly ahead, since I parlayed second Banker and cut it back for the third Banker that didn't appear.

So we are sitting at the 5th hand coming and wagered Banker, I won. 6th hand wagered banker and won again. Floorman said again, look easy game, 1-2-1-2.

I wanted to wholeheartedly follow that but something inside of me said not to. Why? I don't know.

Granted, anything can happen, pattern/trend or otherwise. But I preach, when it is there to follow it when it's not, don't attempt to change it. 

Also no ties. My 0-1-2-3 no or low ties, was also present, big time. Which to me defines itself as, repetitive presentments and clumping, no matter how winning hands are grouped, etc.  The 3 tangible items present are the following:

1)  Beginning of the shoe;

2)  No ties;

3)  Pattern/Trend clearly present.

So we are sitting on the 7th hand coming:

P-BB-P-BB
 
Won four, lost two. Sitting with a slight profit, very slight from the two wins. I stay for Banker and once again the player comes through with a natural.

P-BB-P-BB-P

I actually wanted to wager on the second player but did not. Once again I wagered banker. And banker won. Wagered again banker and banker won again for another third set of doubles. Such a darn perfect 1-2-1-2-1-2.

Same thing, floorman says easy game 1-2-1-2. Dealer looks at me and she says, 'Glen this is not you'. I'm sitting with three losses, my wins have three of them wiped out. I should have had an easy six wins with only two losses the way I was looking at it. Which would have been the 1st hand and the 4th hand as a loss. I failed to fall into an easy groove is what simply happened. 

Now I continue but go light on banker. Another huge mistake!  Win the next two hands.  So we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Lose the 10th hand as after the two bankers a perfect player wins once again. The hand was player had 1 and bankers had a two face cards.  Players third card was a 7 and bankers draw was only an Ace.  So now I am sitting there with 10 hands out.

Lost 4 Players
Won 4 Bankers
Net 2 wins and just a over even

I should have had six parlayed wins, not one doubt. Not one problem. But I fought it and tried to change it, big time.

Not over yet!  Read on. Two more bankers appear, both strong valued wins.  One was a natural and the other one reduced players to a zero and bankers took the easy win.  Now we are sitting at hand 13 coming up looking like the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Once again I strongly desired player, but stayed with Banker. Didn't parlay at all. In fact I reduced my bet a little bit. Player had a 4 and banker had a 5. Luckily Player drew a nine and banker won the hand. Was not a huge win but a win nonetheless. I stayed, didn't parlay and I couldn't believe what I was actually doing and how I was actually wagering. Player had a 7 and banker had a natural win. So now we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB

Sitting with 4 losses
Sitting with 10 wins reduced by 4
Net 6 wins

Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. 

Now I parlay for the 5th Banker. But a player wins. And with each hand coming I wagered for a subsequent Banker to reappear and I lost the 16th, the 17th, and the 18th hands.  Perfect matching side by side, 4 players right next to the 4 bankers. 

So now we are sitting with the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB-PPPP

The emotions and the frustrations are inside of myself. Yes, again something else I write about and I know extremely well. But what I am experiencing was my failure to just follow a simple pattern/trend, that was perfect, solid and could have been extremely profitable.

To me, I lost a sure and extremely easy $10,000 plus. I allowed numerous things to take over my wagering decision making. Among those were:

*  Ego
*  Emotions/Frustrations
*  Wagering for what I desired

After the 4 players won parallel to the 4 Bankers, a single banker won. Which was followed by a winning player without a second banker for the first time.

Nothing can be changed. But you can sure follow winning presentments with a handsome positive and energetic motivated play the way I look at it.

The shoe fizzled after the 20th hand with a combination of chop, 1s and 3s, ties and nothing in my book that could be followed or even wagered against with success more than winning 1 and losing several, type of results.

Sometimes I have succeeded and sometimes I have failed, but always I have taken heart from what I have experienced, accomplished or been subjected to.

Put the blinders on, tune out the wannabe fantasies and apply the correct focus employing dedicated one section/one session, combating wrongful belief against current presentments of the shoe.  Just remember, please.  Why? Because the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', and that is what the highest of the highest majority will never ever figure out.  Never.

There most certainly is a path to righteousness, but it is certainly unclear exactly what that path is and how to continuously follow it.  And there is where most all on these forums, as well as at the tables, are seeking to discover and get filthy rich from.  It will never ever happen, because you can't beat randomness with mathematical science, structured into wagering triggers that will prove repetitively positive. 

• Here, a perfect quote  IMO.  Theodore Roosevelt once said about the man in the arena, "whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is not effort without error and shortcoming, but who does actually strive to do the deed, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumphs of high achievements and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly".

PART 1

The Internet has done its share of negativity to gambling.

Especially in games like baccarat. Why? Because most everyone wants the 'Google and Find' answers no matter what level they are at. Including accuracy, success and positive results they will have in every session. A complete fallacy but they chase it in every means possible without really focusing on what will help them in my opinion.

Maybe 'Google and Find' works in a great amount of things; How to replace parts, how to work certain equipment, guidelines for troubleshooting broken mechanical things, directions to places, reviews of locations, recipes for cooking, statistics on towns-cities-states and worldwide locations, history of all sorts, corporate backgrounds, etc., etc., etc.  But 'Google and Find' will not offer you the triggers and mechanical wagering schedules most seem to believe really do exist that will offer a continuous and repetitive winning wagering plan.

The Internet does offer a very limited amount of resources to anyone as well as some experienced players that attempt to engage in serious and real discussion regarding gambling. But during the previous years they have fizzled out extremely with ridiculous and childish behavior, that the highest majority seem to engage in on a daily repetitive showing.

However along with all the ridiculous infighting, circle of exclusive friends and drama driven people that only offer one line non factual or insightful and totally meaningless posts, demeaning and humiliating comments, as well as total negativity, so many of the long-term experienced forum players either do not post any longer and simply refuse to engage in forum exchanges with the types I just mentioned. Sad but brutally true!

I have noticed, as well as a great amount of others, there is a much larger amount of rejection and dismissal of whatever experienced and knowledgeable people say these days, both on the forums  as well as at the tables. Why? I would have to attribute it to the masses of people are just not familiar with the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', trying to be explained, shown and discussed.

Since most people start playing Baccarat by some sort of stumbling on the game with no prior research, trial and error or coaching, they are highly subjected to all the systems and easy money selling talk of one type or another on the Internet before those people finally come across a forum with serious members and less drama then all the other ones.

And throwing their good money after bad (lost at gambling and system sellers) money they all experience for a while, they immediately side with so many of the drama driven, one liners, etc. I guess I'm just assuming, it's just their subconscious way of getting back at anything that really makes sense in gambling? 

What is really sad, and I witness it over and over and over again, but so very true, are most being 100% hypocritical of experience, real results and factual findings.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

Trick of Baccarat.  What Casinos Love in Baccarat, Simple Yet So Misunderstood.

There are huge psychological effects the game instills on players, while you are losing as well as winning. You better research those, understand them and consequently combat them in your wagering.

So you have to look past those mathematical results, those systems being sold and partially  highlighted all over the internet and as well, published statistical results in order to figure out how to give yourself the real knowledge, you really need to win. 

Why do I say that?  Here, about those 3 things.

1.  Math.  Because the math will apply only to the total amount of results that it was derived from. Example, 1 million shoes or 80 million hands.  2 million shoes or 160 million hands.  It does not apply to the 1, 2, 3 or 4 shoes you are sitting down to play for real money, in real time, for real results. Simple. True. Proven.

2.  Systems.  Because all systems are only selective highlighted events that may or may not happen. Simple. True. Proven.  But every time someone puts a little twist and turn on some type of highlighted system event, it makes it look easy with no downsides.  People are gullible, greedy and ignorant to the true factors of the game and what it really takes  to win any amount of money people claim is fool proof or should happen without much downside, if they only buy and subscribe to their system, etc. 

3.  Statistical Results.  Because the statistical results will only apply to the same mathematical conglomeration of tests that were performed. They are not going to be reflected within the 1 to 5 shoes you were sitting down to play with real money, in real time, with real results.

There are three types of areas that produce tangible events, that happen during a shoe of Baccarat. Favorable, Neutrality and Negative.

Understand those above three areas 100% and couple those consciously with the four most important factors of playing the game.  Realize that there are areas and factors. 

First Factor.  Buy-in/Bankroll.  Your buy-in must be  only a small percentage of your bank roll.  A good safe safe percentage would be 10%.  Your bankroll must be restocked before any profits are taken if it's going to be any type of safe sound bank for you to draw from on a repetitive basis. 


Second Factor.  Understanding Drawdown.  There will be drawdown usually quite frequently before (BEFORE) you realize any type of session goal countless times. You must cooperate and realize this and not let it get you into the negative frame of mind, because of the psychological effects of losing your part or most of your buy-in, getting into the monetary negative or even losing a whole buy-in amount. 


Third Factor.  Positive Progressions.  Using positive progressions to restock your volume drawdown, lock it up and capitalize on your win money; is ultra positive in countless ways to your agenda on winning.  You better think about the aforesaid and understand it.  I guarantee you that it is clearly easier to win without  negativity whether it's on your buy-in or yourself, psychologically.  Remember that!


Fourth Factor.  Plateaus/Levels.  Understand and acknowledge your plateau and levels with total consciousness and allowing them to guide you no matter if you are winning or losing .

Here are some proven blacklisted casinos to avoid.  Be cautious, there are others out there you will have problems with.


https://www.casino.org/untrustworthy/

Sitting at the baccarat table the other night and the last hand, an F7 comes. Yes, I was on it, because of numerous reasons. But it was the 4th F7 of the shoe and it finished 41 B to 30 P.

There was a very unique occurring five times, maximum 3 chop-chop in the shoe.  There were several other events that happened as well and were capitalized on by myself and others. I will post a picture of the scoreboard once our attachment posting problem is fixed.  The majority of people made money, but in the following shoe, which was classically easy to follow, most lost quickly. 

The next shoe brought a great start, banker-player player followed by a 7 streak Banker and an F7 on the 8th hand, within the streak.  Then there was a beautiful seven time chop-chop event that happened immediately after the seven banker streak. I did extremely well. I colored up and cashed out.

The cage is not far from the baccarat table. I cashed out and went back to the table to see what was happening. It turned out there was a problem with the hand after I colored up and left. There was another chop and the banker came out. The dealer picked up the first few spots Wagers which were on the banker and the game was stopped and surveillance was called to determine what the wages were to replace them on the spots. The hand was completed and I threw up a few hundred dollars and wagered max on the F7 and the rest on the banker. They all looked at me and said, "you don't see the chop chop". My answer was, "but there was eight hands in the beginning and an F7, now you have eight chop chop and I feel another F7 is coming or banker".

Most all were on players with large wagers. Myself and one other person wagered the Banker and the F7. Cards dealt, Players have two face cards, bankers have blackjack, players pulled a six and they were all fist pumping in the air and calling out, 'chop'.  Dealer flips another six for the banker and my F7 happened.

Clearly the player side is verbally citing, WTF and saying how that should not have occurred, Etc., Etc.

But as with so many things in the game of baccarat, the same things that won previously, lose presently. And the same things that lost previously, will win presently.  That my friends is random variance defined in realistic terms. 

And while sitting there at the table during the shuffle prior to the last shoe I just described, I dwelled on how the majority, mostly, confirm the absolute unpredictability of the game-over and over and over, week after week after week, but yet continue to get sucked in by the casino's score board. 

NOTE:  I will post both pictures of those two shoes as soon as the attachment for posting pictures is fixed on our forum. Thank you.

Many might have noticed I had all the online casino banners and advertising removed from my forum.

Why?  Because of their dishonesty and outright lies.  Yes, we would get a commission based upon sign ups and plays.  When I questioned the online casino officials, they told me a ridiculously low number of sign ups and play from my forum the past months. 

Well I signed up myself and had another 4 people open accounts as well. Those 5 accounts were never accounted for and added to my forum's tally and commissions. 

As well, I had one member claim he was cheated and he stated his case to me.  I believe him and his proof was rock solid. 

So it clearly appears to me, they do these sort of things on a regular basis, therefore they can do their business on The Wizard of Vegas and other gambling forums, NOT MINE!

Thanks,
Alrelax
Forum Administrator & Owner

Few upgrades are being performed including fixing problems that exist reference attaching pictures, etc.

The forum is going to be in maintenance mode intermittently during the first days of March while this fix and the new badges code is being implemented.

Thanks for your understanding and patience.

Respectfully,
Alrelax
Administrator and Forum Owner

Banker had 2 times, 3 IAR and the third cards for the first 3IAR were a 6-8-9 in that order.  The only other guy and myself say to each other, that 7 is coming, look we had 3 perfect setups for an F7 win if we got a 7 card on any of those 3rd ones.  Then the second 3 IAR, the third cards for that 3 IAR were a 6-9-8 in that order.  Another perfect set of 3 chances if we only got a 7. 

This was the beginning of the shoe.  The first 3 hands were 3 IAR banker, then a player, then a banker, then a player, then 2 bankers, then a player, then the second set of 3 IAR bankers came.

Only the other guy and myself at the table playing.  We were both betting max Fortune 7 each time.  So like 12 hands were out now.  I looked at him and said, what do you think?  He shrugs his shoulders and says, no feeling.  He places min wager on both the players and the bankers and a very small F7 wager.  It was a tie.  He does it again, and it was a players win.  I sat out both times. 

After that second time, I was like, this isn't going anywhere.  I wagered bankers side but no F7 wager.  The other guy playing is back on banker and max F7 wager.  Dealer deals.  Players have an 8 and a 2.  Bankers have 2 face cards.  Players third card is a 6.  Bankers third card was a friggin 7 for the F7 win.

Why is it almost always like this?  The first hand sitting the F7 wager out and it appears.  Happens quite frequently IMO.  Not just with F7 wagers, but with increased large wagers on P or B and also ties, etc, etc. 

Some type of phenomenon I guess. One of many, within an actual B&M bac shoe when you really think about it.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Posted 8-22-2019.  Revisited 2-26-23 because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Not to present what it is setup to produce.  Thanks, talk later, Alrelax.

Before all the high-tech electronics, unlimited streaming, instant expert answers to virtually any and all questions and much much more, there was great television memories on ABC NBC CBS and PBS as the basic 4.  The sirens of Adam-12, the loud roar of the engine from the Munster Koach on The Munsters, motorists being chased down the highways by "CHiPs", the helicopter blades of "MASH", the lollipop sucking take no flack Kojak, action packed medical drama of EMERGENCY and of course, bad boy bright red with that large white vector stripe Ford Gran Torino (the real star LOL) of 'Starsky and Hutch'.

And somewhere between all the high tech and those great television shows were some fantastic off the wall Baccarat games for me in Atlantic City and occasionally in Vegas that I experienced.

Like when I want to revisit the comforts of pre-streaming television, I can turn to Nick, COZI, TV LAND and several other cable TV channels and fall right back into the predictable rhythms of the new opening scene and the conflict introduced just before that first commercial break which somehow, magically, gets resolved just before the closing credits roll, each and every show.

And you know what, back in those days the baccarat room was just about the same as watching those kind of TV shows. The conflict introduced before the first commercial break, that very same conflict totally resolved prior to the closing credits began was the equivalent as to how we all viewed the shoes we played out. After that it was on to another shoe without much remembrance of any type on the previous one.  Not very many people played for the long term or played and thought anything else besides, what was happening right then and there. 

And as with most all TV shows these days which are actually mini-series, miss the beginning one and you have no real idea as to what is happening or who is who, etc.

But really with the procedural and elaborately plotted serial shows as I dub them, these days part of the appeal in my opinion is to have a low barrier to entry. Simply uncomplicated, so viewers can 'Zone Out' and scroll through their phones and won't be missing much. As long as the viewers are into them from the beginning of the season. 

A depressing commentary on attention spans these days I know, but also a real testament to the irresistible draw of the familiar.  When something is missed, just fill it in with what the viewer believes. 

Baccarat was a total different atmosphere pre-2000 and post 2000 wise that is. Pre 2000 clearly not so combative, without a doubt less systematic, staff and dealers actually trying to make the players comfortable, happy and resolve all problems prior to escalation without any doubt whatsoever.  Even the interaction among the players was generally one of total camaraderie and same side defense against the house, rather than I will wager against you and show you what a fool you really are, type of people. It really was like a TV show just generally a 2 1/2 hour classic show each episode instead of 30 minutes. 

You know what I can't help but laugh over—-all the time, how back then when the shoe was hot, almost all the players every single time would be taking large sums of chips out of the rack all in concert with each other. And these days it's almost always the complete opposite,  because I think they are following some type of miniseries for the long run. One or two people these days will be winning and all the others will be losing.

I guess today's play in so many ways really does resemble today's TV miniseries shows. It requires a full season, long run commitment. Structured that way because of things the casino has done as well as the people playing and everything they read on the high-tech Internet.

Myself, I'd rather get into it for a few hours and get spit out at the end of the shoe, with or without a profit, but not dependent upon anything except 'section' presentments, rather than being hooked into an intricate narrative-long term saga that desires to swallow you whole and maintain your presence while you are controlled by the long run waiting for your conflict to be resolved.

Quote From Asym's Posting:

"Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe."

Here are just a few to remember and prove the point.

There is always a trigger for one or two wagers, but that trigger will be there now and gone for the next 8 times, or occurring repeatedly for 8 times and gone the very next 8 times it comes around.  Playing a trigger or two for a flat bet or a flat bet with a Martingale either pro or neg, will only get you even in the short run and a loser in the long run, promise.

The profitable way to play baccarat is when something strong comes along, you pounce on it.  And 'Strong' does not only mean a streak of bankers or players consecutively repeating itself.  Make a couple winning wagers, positive progression the winnings and then pull down and stack up a bunch of winnings, lose the last hand when it goes away and repeat.  Then forget what happened and watch for the next 'whatever'.

And, remember you have to lose before you win.  With that said, then you continue.  Furthermore, when you win, you have to know how not to lose.

I really don't think it's a point of knowing how to win, I think it's more of a point of understanding how to win or understanding what winning is about.

But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times.  Those that say they found wagering 'such and such' after 'so and so' and how they hold a win of 'xyz' each and every time they play, are pure 100% liars. 

Good morning. The pandemic may have cleared the way for a casino in New York City.

(From the New York Times):

Betting on Gotham


Gambling companies have dreamed for decades of operating full-scale, Las Vegas-style casinos in New York City. Now, state authorities are on the brink of opening up the city, the country's last major untapped gambling market, and a flurry of extravagant proposals are competing for a handful of coveted licenses.

Imagine roulette wheels perched above the women's wear department at Saks Fifth Avenue. Blackjack by the boardwalk at Coney Island. Card games within spitting distance of the United Nations. Or maybe even a Caesars Entertainment casino steps from the lights of Broadway.

It is easy to understand why so many gambling companies are interested. Greater New York City is home to close to 23 million people and a destination for many millions more tourists each year. "For gambling companies, New York is their Mecca. It's the last big prize in the United States," my colleague Dana Rubinstein, who is covering the casino competition, told me.

But until recently, state law and a wall of local opposition short-circuited any serious planning for downstate casinos. What changed? A mix of economic and political factors accelerated by the pandemic. They made casinos in New York City or its suburbs not just palatable but desirable to state leaders, though locals will still have a say.

Today's newsletter will explain how New York City casinos developed from a notion into a serious prospect.

A decade in the making
There is a long history of politicians from Nevada to Louisiana using legalized gambling to try to stimulate the economy and boost public revenues. The idea has been to push gambling that was once done on the black market onto the tax rolls, and more recently, to keep residents from crossing state lines to gamble.

New York voters first approved a constitutional amendment to allow major casinos in 2013, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Native American tribes were already operating casinos in New York. But politicians from both parties — many of whom received generous contributions from the gambling industry — said that new casino sites could help create jobs, attract tourists and generate much-needed tax revenue.

To try to maximize the economic impact, New York's plan stipulated that the companies only be licensed at first to operate in areas most in need of revitalization, well outside of New York City. In the years that followed, casinos opened in the Catskills; outside of Albany; and elsewhere in upstate New York. Some have struggled to meet economic projections.

New York's gambling plan did provide for the possibility of as many as three downstate casinos, but only after a lengthy delay. And it did not guarantee that the licenses would be granted.

A pandemic-era shift
Now, state leaders are using the same logic that they applied to upstate casinos to try to accelerate and all but ensure the expansion of gambling in and around New York City. Gambling revenue nationwide hit record highs in 2022. In essence, New York is looking for a bigger piece of the action.

The pandemic only made that desire more urgent. Covid hit New York City, the state's main economic engine, especially hard. Midtown office towers remain only partially full, some wealthy individuals have left for lower-tax states and tourism has yet to rebound to prepandemic levels. The result has been less reliable revenue in city and state coffers, particularly as one-time federal aid sources dry up.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams, both Democrats, hope that the new casinos can help offset those financial losses and spark other beneficial development. Lawmakers have projected billions more dollars in licensing fees and regular tax revenues. Analysts, though, caution that those projections may be overly optimistic, and skeptics of the plans say the East Coast gambling market has already grown oversaturated.

There is also another, less obvious but still powerful driving force: New York's hyper-influential hotel workers union. When the pandemic hit the city's tourism sector hard, the group said as many as 95 percent of its members were out of work. Now, union leaders see gambling projects as one of their biggest opportunities to create more jobs for their members. The shift has been so important, it is reflected in the union's recent decision to add "gaming" to its name, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council.

The group has made itself a useful political weapon for Democrats in recent years, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and providing scores of campaign volunteers. In exchange, the union has exerted considerable pressure on state leaders to fast-track casinos around New York City, often working closely with gambling companies themselves.

You must engage in realism. Absolute 100% lack of  attitude with the physical adherence to realism during the situation you are engaged in.

After years of play, discussion, study and debate, I would have to list the four most important things to be conscious of, practice and totally engaging in, when you are gaming.

1)  Emotional = Complete neutralism but positiveness to enter into parlay progressions through readiness caused by confidence, camaraderie and related happenings.

2)  M.M.M. =  You must have a MMM that will benefit you with visible and physical positive results when you win as well as limit your losses. Gaming is available all the time, your winning is and hopefully going to produce positive results approximately 50% of your wagers and you must be able to define, use and employ additional tactics to add advantages to your buy-in and subsequently to your bank roll.

3)  Plan = Have a plan and stick with it when spot-on without deviation, but the ability to abandon when it is not profitable. Do not attempt to change, turn, convert, or believe you were were 'wronged' or that the shoe will totally pay you back in the short upcoming hands that still exist, etc. 

4)  Ability to Leave = You must have the complete ability without second thought or re-calculations to leave, whether winning or losing. The list is long but countless events will ruin wins, countless events will only add to the losses.  Both will happen, to experienced and non-experienced players. 

Quality & Substance = Stop believing the fallacy of the unspecified, undefined and 'magical', always beatable  events that are supposed to be the gateway to riches. They do not exist. In other words and in reality, if whatever it is, is producing wins for you within the shoe, continue it with the limited successful wagering decisions and acknowledgment of same, EVERY SINGLE HAND. If you do not, you will lose.

Ego & Attitude = We all have those two, no matter if you are aware of yours or not. But I will tell you something, from experience it is best to check them both when you sit down at the table. No two ways about it.

I promise you, they will hurt you the highest percentage of the times. You are not playing against the other players, the dealer or even the casino. You are playing with the shoe, please understand what I have preached, and preaching and what winning sections and shoes offer.

Your Play = Wagers/Bets/Thoughts.  (Yes thoughts are included as well). Must match what the shoe produces, nothing else. Anything else that you allowed to enter the picture, the process, the instant hand, etc., is additional baggage that will most likely hurt you in numerous ways.  Think about it and figure out what allowed you to win.  NOT what caused you to win!

Influence

Totally overpowering in the aura, the game, the whole scene.

Why?  Simply because money is powerful and that is the reason.  Nothing else.  Your mind cries out to you with clear and precise pictures of easy money and your actions follow what you perceive.

Follow what is happening and what is being presented. Do not attempt to have the shoe produce what you desire.

Get rid of all mind-frames, distractions, expectations, needs and laid out plans. Most everybody will not.  However, try it both ways and see which works better. Myself, I know.

We all have favorites. We all have great wins. We all have the desire to win. Set them aside and temporarily forget about them. Be conscious and be careful.

If it's not happening or you can not see it, stop for awhile.  It's truly the only way to play.

But, people continually Wager on Patterns, Trends or Streaks in the hopes they will appear. And when those do not, they keep wagering for those with larger and greater amounts of bets to make up. Then they stop wagering outside of their previous thoughts and then the shoe does a 180 and produces hands they needed just prior. The frustrating aura becomes larger and the cloudiness and gut wrenching turns, affects those people with huge impact. I see it all the time and I can safely say at every game I play. But the shoe was not ever going to really make those patterns, trends, streaks or anything else that the player(s) wanted.

Then the player(s) reverted their wagers back to the original desires and once again the shoe failed to produce any form of consistency to match their wagers.

What is all this called? It is called being influenced.

A word of caution.  RNGs in the free-test/free-trial internet apps or forums are by far easier to follow or predict than real gaming.  The short chop, long chop chop, clumps, streaks and equaling.  Be very careful of those apps and practice games, they are a 'suck in' for whom they are sponsored by.

Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band - Still The Same (Live From San Diego, CA / 1978)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl4fxNHUpvU


Pink Floyd - " Money " Waters / Gilmour / Mason/ Wright

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg


Kenny Rogers - "The Gambler" (Live)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aWsQIpfhbDo


CASINO" - THE ROLLING STONES - "Can't You Hear Me Knockin'?"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D6327WbFVe0



Talking Heads - Burning Down the House LIVE Los Angeles '83

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70



Ray Charles-Blackjack

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cIT5F9XMF6U