Another book in my collection. all factual and about a definitive collection of basic explanation s and rules of card games.  By Scott  McNeely.  Ultimate Book of Card Games

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So tell everyone about the deal and promises you made the board member about the money mark.

Parallel to casino gaming on-line.  FYI:



https://www.casino.org/news/former-employee-blows-whistle-on-scam-skins-gambling-sites

For those of you that do not know, this board has 'ignore' options.  That way you can not see, get PM's or be bothered by those members that apparently detest you, disturb you or that you cannot stand and upset your wonderful Mary Poppins/Dick Van Dyke type of life.

Here is the way you would ignore myself on this board:

Go to 'Settings/Profile'
Then go to 'Modify Profile'
Then go to 'Ignore Boards/Options
Then go to 'Highlighted'
Then go to the 6th one down "Alrelax's Blog"
Check that one
Then go back to the 'Ignore Boards Options'
Then go to 'Buddies/Ignore List'
Then at the bottom you will see a block next to 'Members', list
Put 'Alrelax' in there.

Done.

Happiness!

That way if you are too weak and have to go and read my stuff everyday that gets you so upset and just turns your world inside out, once you complete the ignore stuff--you won't have the great temptation any longer.  Like they say--'out of sight--out of mind', right???

Thanks.

You know, there is nothing wrong with selling something as a sponsor on a message board or website, through ads and editorials.  Happens all the time in our culture, on TV, on the Radio, Billboards alongside the road, etc.,  Heck, in casinos in the restroom with advertisements as well as elsewhere throughout the casino property. 

Those people are buying advertisement space to reach other potential customers.  Simple, accepted all over without complaint, why here?  Like about Stephen Tabone.  My problem with him, was he came on the board and with a sheer commercial approach--started his dialogs and they all were based around his book and book sales.  Sponsor the board, pay your advertising money and carry on.  Don't slander others and sell your product. 

If you as a member, do not approve of it or you do not enjoy or like his style or info--skip it.  What's the big deal???  Same with a poster that you do not enjoy or like, skip their material.  When you go to a restaurant do you demand the owner of the restaurant remove all the things you do not happen to like on his menu??  Same thing.  It costs Vic money to run the board, are you donating or paying for your space or the privilege of reading, learning, enjoying or sparring with others??  Well? 

Personally, I don't care who sells what through a sponsorship.  In every industry/field there will be great products, mediocre products and junk/worthless products.  That is the pecking order.  I buy many things for the business I partner in.  Most of the time I buy the great products, however--once in awhile I purchase something that is clearly inferior in design, technology and/or 'real life field results' on a job as compared to another brand/product.  Hell, in my own kitchen I run into it all the time with various brands of food.  Everyone coming out with a service, product or something else for sale, might believe and think and market as that particular item is the best thing since slice bread--but in reality--their will always be like I said, great--mediocre--junk/worthless.

There is room on the board for all kinds of sales and marketing if they support the board.  The same as Amazon and other websites.  You give them a commission to be on their site, etc.  It is business. 

Some people

Recognition, Identifying & Intuition (4 of 10 in a Series)  

           
                                      Recognition, Identifying & Intuition


They all go hand-in-hand.  In fact so many things in the game of baccarat does.  But the problem is, so many only believe and play for a set-mechanical wagering type of betting pattern.  They do believe that, the game will convert to and follow what they are planning, not the other way around. 

Recognition

Probably for most a real tuff thing, IMO a hard thing in this simple yet so complicated game is the recognition factor a player must have and deal with to be the least bit successful.  Recognition covers several areas, moving your subconscious to your conscious side of your mind and actually a steady reminder of the numerous things I brought up in other threads/posts about your subconscious mind effecting your decision making.  Recognition is also being able to control your gambling, especially if you are winning or losing.  Winning, actually offers you very little reason to stop playing.  Usually you will convince yourself that it is all your skill and you are on the way to winning back everything you lost or if that is not the case, you are telling yourself you are going to win so much---you will have a record win.  On the negative side, players tell themselves that there is really no reason to stop playing if you have lost, if you do then there is really no way to recover the funds you spent. 

Identifying

Unlike recognition that is generally trying to trim up your losses or walk with winnings and don't get yourself lost within casino fairyland, etc., identifying will help you with your wagering style.  The main thing about baccarat, no matter if authors spell it out or not is the patterns/trends/events (whatever each of us labels it) as the main item(s) to look for in this game.  Of course they all keep continually changing, coming and going, waiting and exposing themselves, hiding for some time and then open for the taking, etc.  Identify the event, no matter if it is weak or strong in nature and wager according.  Hit it hard, pounce on it and then get into your money management division protocol so you can capitalize on the win money while reserving your buy-in for other changes or shoes. 

You have to identify the event, no matter if it is a streak/run-chop- see saws, etc., etc.  Shoes have patterns/trends/events that do develop and the characteristics will surface.  One way or another, the aura, the point values, the events, and other items will forge a characteristic of some type and that is what you need to identify and then capitalize on.  The shoe will present itself with events that either play into your psych and you get all flustered and aggravated trying to conform a pre-set mechanical bet placement method that will not match up with it, or you see what is clearly happening and you merge your wagering pursuits with the emerging hands and you controlled your greed, outlook and optimism.   

Intuition

The hardest out of the 3 here is by far intuition.  Many will say it comes with years of experience, trial and error, losses and difficult times gambling.  I think they are correct.  Pretty much the same in most sports to a certain degree.  If you don't know the down side, how can you be aware of the upside?  If you don't lose, how can you truly appreciate a win?  Etc, etc.

I can't see and I don't think a teacher is a professor, a seminar instructor, a tutor, etc., can teach, intuition.   Especially in gambling.  Why?  Many reasons, but the main one being what I have said in other posts.  That is, the non-conformance of the 3 or 5 or 7 baccarat shoes you sit down to play with the overall averages and the data results of all the statistician's, computers and baccarat experts here and elsewhere.  Those shoes in front of you at 1:10 AM tonight are not going to be the result(s) of Joe Schmo's 100,000 shoes or Grandma Kitty's 6 time 10,000 shoes findings, period! 

You are going to have to suffer through years of playing, whether profitable or not, before you actually have intuition.  A lot of time playing is the bottom line.  No magical book to read, no magical internet computer training course, no magical jade necklace to obtain.  Some of us will get it and some of us will not.  Some will get it sooner and others will take a very very long time. 

But I think very strongly that the areas of Recognition, Identifying and Intuition are always working and clicking in your head, whether you are conscious of them or not. 

Illusions-Perceptions-Influences & Frame-of-Minds (3 of 10 in a Series)
           
                            Illusions--Perceptions--Influences--Frame of Mind
All four have a lot to do with playing and gambling at Baccarat.  More than what many realize.  Well here are a few thinkable's for each.  Not a comprehensive list, just a few descriptions for the areas I think are prevalent and popular about the baccarat players.

Illusions:   What the playing sees and is chasing.  Thinking he can avoid all the pitfalls that are the casinos safeguards for offering this game, etc.  The players interpretation of what the shoes can and will produce.  The players false ideas of what is due to him and how he will capitalize on those.

Perceptions:  What the player genuinely believes when he plays the game.  How the player sees winning and losing and his own ability to combat the downside losing and of course, as well as the upside--his own planned eventual win.  The players value and conscious thought of negative events that can hamper his ability to properly play well.

Influences:  Other players.  People hanging with the player.  Other friends and acquaintances the player knows and what they claimed they achieved playing.  The players knowledge of the game and how he interprets statements from the dealers and other casino personnel directly involved with the game.  Positive and Negative experiences from friends and family with casino play.

Frame-of-Mind:  The actual state of mind the player is in and how he allows it to reflect onto his gaming decisions and style.  The players interpretation of others experiences and his placement of himself within those same events.  The players ability to concentrate and disallow all negativity and withhold all positive relations while gaming would be ideal but so many so often will deviate at that and cost themselves money. 

Although there is mostly intangible things here, some of them are tangible because they are the most governing thing to our attitudes and personalities that make up the above 4 areas which a good Bac player would have moved from his traditional unconscious to conscious departments of his operating cycle. 


"Given the frame of mind of the vast majority of Bac players"... By; AsymBacGuy.

I wrote something a while back and found it in my notes this morning.  It went like this, Creating an image that doesn't reveal itself in factual relevance.

The frame-of-mind of the majority of Bac players would be a lifetime of work for any psych professor for sure.  However, those frame-of-minds are present and very much an item at most Bac tables.  They are very illusionary, influential and able to convey those held thoughts and actions of the player unto others sometimes they produce good outcomes and can just easily produce bad ones.  It is the proverbial double edged sword for sake of a longer explanation.   

Let me see another one.  Here, if you do and follow those I am talking about and AsymBacGuy was referring to, you either get great and huge camaraderie or you do not.  Good and bad outcomes and right alongside of it, will be coupled with smiles and high 5's or snickers and a strong shot of air exhaled through each of their noses.   


Everybody here has seen this: a player is accurately placing his bet then the supposedly "lucky" guy heavily wagers the opposite side "mentally forcing" the former player to withdraw the bet.
How many times our hero was right to erase his bet? I suppose 50% of the times. By; AsymBacGuy.   

Bet placement is 1st and foremost to everything we do at the Bac table.  Everything comes after, win/loss, positive/negative, money management, strategy, whatever. 

Most players do not realize how the psych is effected by what other players do or even do not do at the table.  The worst offenders, IMO, are usually those that concentrate so hard and focus so stiff and maintain their heads in the hands.  Then when you, with whatever reason or belief (right or wrong) wager against them or remove your wager with clear indications it was done because of them is when personalities flair.  And, like I said, can be good or bad for your own outcome after that point.  It is not always the shoe---it is ourselves so many times.  More times that you can imagine. 

There is no magical fix to this.  There are things and ways you can have a smoother transition to influences and frame-of-minds at the Bac table.  But it is not to clearly show up other players, make fun, taunt, say things such as, "You will be losing those wagers when I get the cards", etc.  Do not mistake what I just said with friendship ribbing among players that genuinely know each other. 


"You can't win all night long, but you can't lose all night long either". By; AsymBacGuy. 

So many players give back whatever they win in each session and then their buy-ins follow also.  That is the most repetitive thing I have seen happen at all the casinos I have ever been to, no matter where the properties are located at or at what level the players are playing at.  Unfortunately, the first good win when it stops is usually the best win of the session or night.  I do not know why, but most times, the upper majority, it is like that.  I do really believe it has to do with the frame-of-mind of each player and their total false perception and illusions. 

They actually stop themselves from winning, or continued/further wins.  I am also guilty of this and this is the absolute biggest thing I try to keep in my conscious frame-of-mind rather than the subconscious where we all usually have it.  I am 100% guilty of it, hands down I think 100% of all serious players are also.  Why---because of the four factors I started out this thread with--that is why--that is why 100%, no 110%, we stop ourselves, period. 

Besides the cards impact, it's scientifically proven that a losing player is more emotionally guided than logically guided in his actions.

So the probability he will make mistakes should be higher than a "fresh" player as he's not considering every bet as a single bet, but that every bet must be a quick step to try to break even.

"Nobody is immune from this effect, it happens to everyone". By; AsymBacGuy.


Emotionally guided.  Yes.  I have been writing about that with lots the past several months.  Because by definition, that will cost you more winnings and more of your buy-ins and/or bankroll than anything.  This is directly related to bet-placement and if nothing else, you better define your own psych, how and why you wager what you do.  Take a look, a real look at your own; Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and Frame-of-Mind.  It is not easy to see what yours are.  I wish I could have in my first years, say first 15 or so years of gaming.  Maybe that is why now, I know all this?  I am not special, I am not a Harvard Psych professor, and I am not a mathematical genius like the Professor in Back to the Future.  I can just clearly see what people do and do not do most of the times and why they are doing it, at the Bac table. 

As far as the fresh player, AsymBacGuy mentions.  So spot on, can not be challenged! Again, a double edge sword but nonetheless, ever so prevalent at the Bac table.  Whether that is a passer-by, a friend of another player or a regular player just stepping up to the table.  You have to have the tenacity to figure them out and ride whatever coat-tails you can to capitalize if it is available and jumping out to be followed. 

Here let me try to quickly explain that one.  Some people, sometimes can see things we cannot.  The reason or why--does not matter--you might never know.  But it is a dangerous plan to follow others because when it backfires, the level of emotional punishment we inflict on ourselves subconsciously--sucks!  Been there and done all this.  I treat myself better and less harmful when I lose because of my own thoughts, ideas and illusions--rather than someone else's.  And myself, I recover faster and better when I make mistakes because of my own fault---not the fault of following another.  So, be careful.  Extremely careful of this dangerous rut.   


"Once we placed our first bet we are chained into the game, the logic slowly dissipate, the money doesn't exist at all besides the plastic we have in front of us".  By; AsymBacGuy.

Players create imagines.  Why, I do not know.  But they will interpret many things while they are gambling and I do believe each player will have a process they go through, without being able to tangibly define how they made that decision.  Oh sure they will point to the score board and say because of so and so, before and after, but there are other things that come into play as I have mentioned above. 

That is why I say, "Try your best to convert things out of your subconscious to your conscious side of your frame-of-mind".  Ask yourself, "why am I wagering that" or "Is that person influencing me"?, or "Where did I get that perception from", or "What is actually my frame-of-mind", etc., etc.

In conclusion, yes, "keeping track of certain losing players actions could be a possible trigger anytime we don't know where to bet and whenever we can't refrain to risk our money."  By; AsymBacGuy.


Easily back fires, is the problem!  The larger problem is, if it does back fire on you, then you literally kick yourself and get yourself even more clouded and aggravated.  Your frustration level will rise and you then get onto that hell-bent frame-of-mind where you do things such as a 7 step negative progression on one-side while the other side is experiencing a 14+ streak run.  I have seen it many times, and it is obvious to others because of that person's aura and actions.  Those would have to be the 'Creme Da La Creme' of being on top of the double edge sword as it happens to you.  Been there and done that, I rather steer clear of that one. 


Other Notes:


I have a casino friend that will always, without failure, ask me, "What do you think", while his hand is holding chips and he is attempting to wager.  However, this is always without failure after he lost several hands in a row.  Never one or two but always 3 or 4 losses or greater.  If he sees me win a couple, at least two, never one, he will then say, "What should I do"?  When I really feel something or am on a roll, I will nudge him with my arm and point or tell him what side.  Very seldom will he go with me, he has to lose and lose numerous hands before he will actually go with me. Perceptions and Frame-of-Mind are two strong influencing factors.  Do not kid yourself, they certainly are, although they are intangible and every yet so powerful over your subconscious mind which directly effects your decision making ability. 

How can you assist yourself and gain more control.  Be aware of these things and limit your subconscious mind and remember these things at the casino throughout your play.  Always physical repeat to yourself the question, "Am I thinking straight, am I being influenced by others and my subconscious mind or what"?  Be clear, non-clouded and actually affirm with yourself if you are acting on thought and reason or if you are acting on illusion and influence.  Question you perceptions and your frame-of-mind. 

On "Frame-of-Mind".  Probably the biggest out of the four areas that affect us at the Bac table.  Each of us has one, and that frame-of-mind will change with illusions, perceptions and influences without a doubt.  Being conscious of something negative or not the greatest for you might stop it from entering into the equation.  Likewise with the wrong or non-factual info/data about something that is good or positive for yourself as well.  Shake it all up, you will have your frame-of-mind. 

Here is an analogy (since my buddy LungYeh likes analogies).  My wife will take the 3 kids to the movies.  She wants to get there like 3 minutes before show-time, rushes to get the tickets and maybe stop by the snack counter and grab a couple of drinks and box of candy and a plain popcorn for the kids to share.  As soon as it is over, let's go, we have to get to so and so quickly and rushes the kids out.  I go to the movies with the kids.  We have to get there 30 min's before the movie.  The kids have to play the video games in the lobby or the side room arcade.  Then we have to all go to the snack counter, popcorn for 2 of them to share and another for me and the little boy to share (he does not eat too much of it, leaves more for me!) A box of candy for each and 3 drinks, I can share with the little boy.  Maybe something else like a few hot dogs or a large nacho chips with cheese, etc.  Maybe some sour pickles also.  Then after the movies, we all use the rest room.  Then we go play some more video games.  Then maybe, just maybe we can go somewhere like a real arcade or to Dave and Busters.  There is an example of two frame-of-minds.  There are most certainly, Perceptions-Illusions and Influences mixed up in there.

Negative Progressions and Negative Frame-of-Mind (2 of 10 in a Series)                                                  
I am putting down my thoughts here based on reading the past couple of days.  I truly feel players going in a casino with the attitude/belief, "I can always get whatever I lose back by negative progression" is truly harmful.  Unless and only unless you are at a $10.00 min table and you are only wager the $10.00 or $20.00 and you have a reserved buy-in and you are ready, willing and 100% able with risking the sums of $5,100.00 and $10,200.00 respectively, to attempt 8 progressions to recoup your $10.00 or $20.00 lost. I say 8 attempts is what needs to be planned to prevail on a negative progression, not 6 or 7. 

But to me, that energy, that feeling, that risk is absurd!  And it will play on almost everyone's mind, almost.  That buy-in bankroll can and should be used for other things and reserving it for positive events rather than the negativity and related effects losing has on most all players.  Those that believe in it and those that do it, I think the, 'can not retract', or the 'stick to your guns' and those types of overpowering and controlling thoughts set in.  Bad traits for a good to great Bac player, IMO!

While positive progressions are a very vital part of making profit while winning, any kind of negative progression to break even or obtain a small profit is extremely dangerous. 

So, personally I forget about the smaller losses of $100--$250--$500, etc., and concentrate on the winning progressions which will far and beyond, make-up for the losses I had, if I win.  If I lose I will also lose with the negative progression.    To me, no rocket science.  What am I missing?  How do I win with a negative progression and cannot win with a positive progression?? 

My analogy to this is a vehicle repair garage with numerous employees.  There is one guy, say in a group of 20 that is always inciting worker's rights and how to do everything his way, not the owner's way, etc.  Fire the guy, point blank get rid of him or put him on landscaping and washing vehicles until he quits.  I would take the firing route even with repercussions of penalties and taxed surcharges for firing some states have.  I would just eat it and be done with him.  Costs me more in others non confirmatory and loss profits, etc.  I would look to make it up on positive ways without the guy, not keeping him and dealing with negativity, losses and the such.  Kind of the same at gambling where you have to win so many to make up a loss and the frame of mind it gets most everyone into.  Moral=Take the loss, make it up later, don't shoot for the absolute immediate to become whole for the past negatives.

I say the above, not to dispel, discredit, insult or challenge of any of you in anyway.    

I say that from experience.  From my 35 + or so years of playing, progressions only reflect the 'outcome', 'good luck', 'bad luck', 'once in a lifetime win', 'worst game ever played', whatever each of us cares to label their results, etc., and progressions pertaining to positive or negative in fact.  Progressions bring you up a level of everything in wagering and gambling, it plays on your psych. And, I am saying that for the negative as well as the positive ones.     

Although the one place I play at in the Midwest, it has a current $10.00 to $2,000.00 tables.  Most places, do have $25.00 or $50.00 minimums and the majority of the numerous high limit rooms, especially in Vegas, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and California do have a $100.00 minimum up to $300 minimums.  The negative progression numbers would be exceeding the table limits on 6 and 7 place progressions pretty easily, even with the lower table minimums.  And reality is, most all players do not bring $25k or $50k to the casino to wager $50 and $200 a time.  I do not care what the experts and gaming info writers recommend for 100 or 250 times your average wager for a buy-in or bank roll, sorry it is not reality.  Not here to discuss what your buy-in should be.  Most all players will not weather losing 30 or 50 wagers until they break even or profit 5 or 10 units, 100 to 200 wagers down the casino shoes played in a setting.  That is reality.

Someone wagering $250.00 would be on an $8,000.00 wager on his 6th wager with a buy-in of $15,750.00 at risk.  Someone with a $400.00 wager would be at a $12,800.00 wager on his 6th wager, with a $25,200.00 buy-in at risk if he lost the 6th one. Like I said not practicable and will only happen with an occasional player that will risk huge money to break even.  Might be good gossip and drama to talk about here, but in the casino it is extremely dangerous. 

Although everyone's financial picture is exclusive to themselves and not others, most of the experienced players will not engage in negative progressions much more than once or twice as a general non-written protocol.  This is because they have seen 7, 8, 9, 10, or 12 losing hands or something called the 'non-believable' from actually happening right then and there.  Happens all the time.  Not every time, a player normally wins numerous times before he actually experiences what I said, probably because his losses were overridden by wins or just his plain ignorance of the losing times.  When I said 'experience' it refers to time and years at the table, nothing to do with winning-losing-or even interpreting the game.

I said all that to bring the reader to a point.  And that point is, what negative progressions can and usually do to most players, not all, most.  Frame of mind is altered or effected.  And by that, I mean the following. 

Can you or anyone prevail with a dedicated 5 step. 6 step, 7 step Marty 'negative progression' to prevail for 1 unit or so?  Absolutely.  That is not the question.  The question is, how many will you lose before all the wins and money risked are long gone?  Some say something along the lines of, "If you lose 7 or 8 straight in a casino than what are you doing there"?  All players, even the winning most players will lose 7 or 9 or 12 straight at times.  And we cannot regulate when those times come along or how much we are playing with when those times set in, until it is too late.  Every one of us (I sure the hell hope so anyway) are saying positive and motivating things even if we are going down.  And if you were (and it happens, I seen it numerous times) going down say wagering $500 bets and then you started to lose with a negative progression before you can play it all out to the 5th or 6th spot, as you would be over the table max on the 7th and 8th hands, and they cut down to $100 or $200.  You just fall deeper in and get your frame-of-mind damaged and clouded even worse.  Then when you do win a couple, you are so far away from even, it is really sad. 

So let's assume me and you are gambling at a casino.  We are wagering $20.00 and we lose, lose again and once more-lose.  Then we say let's go negative progression to recoup that $60.00.  So I place $60.00 out there.  Then $120.00, then $240.00 then $480.00.  Sure hope I hit by the time I got on that 4th bet.  I had an additional $900.00 counting on the recovery of the $60.00 that I/We lost.  And, if that did not prevail, then we have to pony up $960.00 for the next wager to get back the neg progression attempt and the original $60.00 we were hell bent on getting back.  I will stop there at the 4th/5th attempt and not even go into the 6th/7th attempt possibilities.  If you do not think they are real-possible or can happen to you---think again, I promise form the bottom of my heart it happens frequently.  But it is the nature of the players---when things like this happen, the player's frame-of-mind is affected.  They somehow get hell-bent on the negative progression hope and convince themselves they will prevail.  Yes, they can and yes they do, but not every time.  And the down side to that is the possibility those winning time with neg progression instilled into your frame-of-mind.  It is not that hard to recoup a few hundred compared to a few thousand or a few thousand compared to a tens of thousands or a tens of thousands as compared to hundreds of thousands.   

No one here goes in to play one time and calls it quits.  They play year after year and will continue to do so. So I know the effects of neg progression and their effects are much greater negativity than most anything in live gaming.  A negative progression to me, is the same as a volume of combustible liquid with some escaping fumes, improperly contained inside a heated warehouse without ventilation and ignition sources sporadically present.

As far as 1 win and 7 losses.  I have repeatedly seen great players that usually prevail and have lifetime positive wins, lose in excess of 7 times consecutively.  If you have a casino that the average player cannot lose more than 5 or 6 consecutive times, I will sell everything I have and borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars and be there tomorrow, maybe the next day.  But I know that is impossible, does not exist and will never exist.

But, maybe I am totally wrong here and my way of thinking??? 

                     
How You Lose, 'Why You Lose'

With all the beliefs and subscriptions as to easy money 'sure fire winning', "I can beat the game" and numerous other ones, there seems to be widespread disagreement among the factual raw data of gambling with games that are either fair or extremely low house advantage.  Baccarat falls into that description of being a fairly low house advantage.  However, it is all dependent upon how the player is attempting to wager, mostly with time and length played and actual number of hands.  All the rest of the game beliefs, strategies, illusions, perceptions, influences and player frame-of-minds are subjective and individual to each player. 

It is rock solid, will not change, cannot change that, there is a definitive explanation of what actually happens to a player that plays too much.  And that is, what will happen to a player with finite resources continuously playing will inevitably go broke against a player with infinite resources in a fair or negative-expectation game. However, this is also true in a positive-expectation game if the player with finite resources continually plays and increases his stakes when winning, but does not reduce them when losing.  And you-the player have finite resources.  And the casino-your opponent has infinite resources.  Period, no discussion, factual.

You can believe it, not believe it, incorporate it into your play or totally disregard it and be the first King Kong gambler to overtake and bankrupt any and all casinos you enter with your play and unlimited hours.  I learned and I learned the hard way.  It was not in any one gaming jurisdiction or any one casino property, I was hard headed and I had to have my lights knocked out by several in each.  But one day I actually did read, understand and became 100% conscious of the time and number of hands factor.  But I did learn and moved all (well all that I know of anyway) form my subconscious to my conscious frame-of-mind when I am in the casino chair There is no magic time or number of hands whether you are winning and should stop or if you are losing and should not continue any longer.  It is individualistic and ideal to each person and their situation, experience and comfort levels.  The problem with the internet, is it causes "lazy learning" in my opinion.  Meaning, I can just go on the internet, read something, learn it, be versed in it, use it and profit from other's mistakes and misery.  Well, partly correct, but to really work and work in your favor the best that it can, is you have to tweak, twist, turn, bend, conform and adapt what will actually make you a winner.  And that my friend, will take trial and error, blood sweat and tears and cash. 

Here is why I say that, because I might be able to go into a casino with $2,000.00 and play two shoes and win $15,000.00.  With the same buy-in and shoes and time played, you might be able to win only $2,000.00 or perhaps lose all together.  No matter the protocols and set-parameters of buy-ins, wagering and time played; Game beliefs, Strategies, Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and player Frame-of-Minds will enter the picture and you will have different responses and reactions to the numerous things that happen within the course of the baccarat shoe being played out, than what I would, as long as we were not sitting side-by-side and agreeing on each and every hand with an exact wager, etc.   

So, among gambling analysts, casino personnel, statisticians, experts, related professor type non-casino others, and of course, the me's and you's, the fresh or let's say under 10 years of playing and the been there crowd, more than 10 years of playing people.  But the fact is, experience is realty and reality is made-formed and experienced every day at the casino, any casino, every casino.  Realizing reality is different depends on the events produced, however it will always repeat itself, but in a random way, when it is ready.  What is a random way?  At a future date past the hand you are currently experiencing.

Your actual results diverge from being somewhere and doing something.  The more you do that something, the more you engage, the more your results just diverge at a slower rate--faded, clouded, non meaningful, etc.,  even though you play the same amount of hands and shoes per session. 

Reason being, your subconscious tunes out the norm and what you are comfortable with the majority of the times.  So then, the actual ratio of results will eventually translate into either good or bad ?lucky or unlucky" negative or positive, and so on. 

Here are my two examples of why people lose oh, there are many more but this is not a novel, this is just part of a series of baccarat play I am writing about.  #1) A most famous example I can give of why gamblers lose is, in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, although no more or less common than any of the other 67,108,863 sequences of 26 red or black. Gamblers lost millions of dollars betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an "imbalance" in the randomness of the wheel, and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.  What could they have done different?  Pounce on it.  But that is just a written and published example of what I call, false illusions and playing against what is happening.  #2)  The mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during a period, it will happen more frequently in the future.  As well, and must be included is also the following.   In which a gambler decides, after a consistent tendency towards one side or a certain type of event, that the same side or event is more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate has thus far allowed for consistent results of that side or event. Believing the odds to favor that side or event, the gambler sees no reason to change to the other side or possible events from happening and then regression to the means occurs, which is a proven outcome in gambling will happen, not might happen or could happen, but will happen.

I saw it the other night, super clear and like my little boy taking a bit of candy from the box in his hand and shoving it into my mouth, telling me to taste it.  No choice and obvious is what I am trying to say.  A younger gentlemen working two cards for the Players side, working them-squeezing them-peeking and blowing and dinging.  Flops a Natural 8 over.  His facial expressions, his excitement, his tallying up the forthcoming win all so ever present.  Defined, bold, a statement as to his believes-convictions and perceptions.  Then an elderly female with little fanfare and a bit of excitement, but not much.  Flops a Natural 9.  The sheer disappointment and quick slam of the table by the younger gentlemen, I actually felt kind of bad for him.  But, what was the most interesting part to me was the comparison on excitement and expressions which was a direct reflection of each person's illusions, perceptions, influences and player's frame-of-minds, regardless of the wager size from each.  The female had a much larger wager by the way than the younger gentlemen did.

The female player could have easily have had a total of zero or anything up to an 8 and lost the hand.  She didn't know any more or less than the younger gentlemen did as far as what was going to come out of the shoe next.  But, there was distinctive influential factors as to what each had go through their decision making processes prior to the hand coming out.  There was talk from each about how and why each would prevail.  And I also say, the younger gentlemen could have had the advantage of not being hard core and set in his ways the way so many older and seasoned players certainly are.  In fact, I do believe that being fresh to a game going on or fresh in the number of years played, both have certain advantages over a player that has been at the table for many shoes as well as his having many more years of experience than the other person.   

Point being---and I do wholeheartedly believe an important point.  The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info, signs, trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Whether that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word lazy, as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that, as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen". 

Be smart, stay conscious stay alert keep your brain working and fill your conscious with the illusions, perceptions, influences and correct frame-of-minds that will lead you to profitable and non-egotistic and knowledgeable wins with the correct time to stop and retreat.  Be ready to pounce on those small sections identified by their turning points when the shoe does produce welcoming opportunities to clearly smack the casino as they say.  But you are only going to be able to do that by not getting lazy, not getting over confident, not believing negative progression will make you whole, not being overly influenced with garbage, false illusions, fake and worthless perceptions and a proper frame-of-mind.   

If you have convinced yourself that you can win with merely wagering with or against what you have statistically calculated should and will happen, while under the believe that is all there is to this game,  come back and read this in a couple of years.   

                The Way We Think (Especially at the Baccarat Table!)

"It will happen"--"It has to happen".  Those are two of the most frequent sayings a player will here.  And at times, yes they both do and yet at other times, never.  Some might not say, never.  They explain it as, "then you are grasping, no evidence, just wishful thinking, etc.

Large wins, then nothing.  Like WOW!  Complete fizzle out, then turns into a demand to prove something to no one except myself, that I can win again or more.  Always the same, never changes.  Years and years of playing, different properties, different states and does not matter whether Asian, White or Latino, same same, does not change.

Here is another one, "Monkey See Monkey Do", the list can go on and on and on.  Okay, let us get going on the purpose of writing this now. 

I was coming into work this morning.  I was exiting a gas station/c-store parking lot onto a side street.  I wanted to make a quick left and go about 40 feet to a main east-west through-fare and hang a right turn.  However, this guy has to come up and literally block my exit and he had to wait for the car in front of him to get a break in traffic to turn left.  Of course he could not have left me room to go across and out, he had to block the way and stop smack in front of me instead of 15 or 20 feet before creeping up to the car stopped in front of him anyway.  What was he thinking, what was his perception, closer to the other car waiting and he would go faster?  Too much trouble to stop, let me out and then creep up to just wait anyway?  There had to be a logical explanation rather than, "I am just a jerk and I shall block the drive so this guy cannot get out and has to wait because I have to wait"?  Maybe, but I do doubt it.  I think it had to do more with perception, initial thought, etc., than the latter. 

One more, 'My Cousin Vinny', yes the movie, I love it.  Anyway, remember towards the beginning when Vinny was in court at the arraignment of the two kids and he did not understand the procedure for saying Guilty or Not Guilty?  Well, here is what happened:

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Mr. Gambini, the next words out of your mouth better be "guilty" or "not guilty." I don't want to hear commentary, argument, or opinion. I don't want to hear any facts or evidence. If I hear anything other than "guilty" or "not guilty", you'll be in contempt. I don't even want to hear you clear your throat to speak. Now, how do your clients plead?

Vinny Gambini: [intimidated, but the words go right past him] I think I get the point.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: No, I don't think you do. Now you're officially in contempt of court! Would you like to say something else and go for two counts of contempt of court?

Vinny Gambini: Not guilty.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Thank you. Not guilty plea has been entered for the record. Probable cause hearing will begin tomorrow at noon. Bail for both defendants will be set at $200,000. Oh and bailiff, take Mr. Gambini into custody with them... and set his bail at $200 for one count of contempt of court.

Okay, Vinny had a different perception of what me and possibly you heard the judge say.  That is exactly what I am referring to, each one of our thought process, interpretations and perceptions might not be the same.  Well, the same thing happens at the baccarat table based upon each one of our past experiences, plateaus and other factors that are different for you, me and others. 

          *****EXPERIENCE--PERCEPTION--THOUGHT PROCESS*****

Experience, Perceptions and Thought Processes.  A lot in those three words, believe me!  Perception is probably the largest and the most confusing to each of us at the baccarat tables.  In fact, huge in baccarat as players tend to place wagers on what they think that they interpret will be coming up for one reason or another.  How the player thinks and reacts will equal, interpretation of the information the player observed.  As well, the past experiences, good or bad of that player.  Past runs witnessed, quantities of runs, infrequency of runs or chop-chop/alternating lengths, 1's-2's and 3's, 1's and 3's, doubles, balanced shoes, imbalanced shoes and lots more.  Lots and lots more.  If the player has not experienced certain things, then he does not know what might come out and when he starts, he will certainly be in the dark as to its formation reality and what could happen.  Please, do not misunderstand the aforesaid sentence for prediction or anything of the like.  With a reasonable player, with common sense and a player's mind, that is conscious of reality rather than wishful thinking and dreaming, prediction is not relied upon in the typical sense.

If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about.  So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much experience, perception and thought process is used in a skillful way, rather than prediction wishful thinking and dreaming, based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled something like, "how to win at baccarat".

I am saying experience is huge along with an open frame-of-mind, the ability to interpret your perceptions within a clear thought process and the ability to pounce-on-it or stop playing and book a win.  That is why so many newbies seem to be the real deal and then a ? or ? shoe later are fizzling out with giving back all the win money followed by an aggressive attempt to recapture the win just lost, they have no ideas whatsoever how they won what they just lost in the first place.

3 Kinds of Perceptions will generally make-up the players thought process based upon his experience.

False Perception.  An erroneous perception of reality in baccarat.  Just a self-inflicted vision of concept and belief by the player.  The player will convince himself and thus be completely deceived by a false perception and subscription to his current wagering selections based solely on his past experiences or what others are mumbling and telling him to do.  The player will always rationalize out what seems to be fantastic and successful but the false perception will soon surface and cost him lots of money.  When he wins using this, it just fuels the soon to erupt fire that much greater.

Temporary Perception.  The player is attempting to calm his lust to win, usually after a period of false perceptions, just fizzled out and cost him a large amount of his win or buy-in capital he had.  Since perception is extremely hard to actually define and harder to actually understand by most people, the temporary perception is more of a fleeting, some right and almost on track type of result for the player which could send the player into larger wins or aggressive losses.  REALIZE WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS AND HOW IT HAPPENS!

Self-Correcting Perception.  The hardest to explain but here goes.  Almost elementary psych but one can very well relate to, self-correcting perception to learning.  How the younger school kids, say elementary school aged and how they are easier to convince and change their mind set then middle school aged and how middle school aged kids are easier to convince and change their minds than high school kids and/or adults would be.  But self-correcting perception, within baccarat is the player catching himself following others especially when they are wrong in their bet placement processes.  The player realizes he was drifting and not paying attention or at least he blames that as his excuse for following others and not paying attention, etc.  It would also cover the player's ability to correct himself with reverting himself back to the basics such as, remaining conscious of his plateaus, past experiences, capital, bet selection methods, duration of playing time, variances and win holding, etc., etc. 

In closing, if you think everything is 'cut and dried' with a simple bet selection/bet placement method and what you will walk away with or place as a stop-loss, it is not that simple.  Although it might be for those that have a one-side one-vision playing style, but for those players that are more successful, they realize that there is no easy definitive 'cut and dried' protocol of wagering, stop loss and win stop amounts. The latter has absolutely found the positive and tangible effects of being conscious and employing other factors and events into their basics of wagering, cashing out and playing time.     

[For those of you that, wholeheartedly believe you can pick a bet-placement/bet-selection method, sit down at a Bac table, win a certain amount and then leave, DO NOT read the following, it will be a complete waste of your valuable time and will not apply.]

If you truly get into the game and take it seriously, you will find that you must have additional knowledge about other things that highly effect your winning, losing, playing, decisions, etc., other than your actual bet-placement/bet-selection process.  If you DO NOT, you will either do one of two things:

1)    Win and give it all back and then attempt to recoup and win again while losing your funds;

Or,

2)    Lose and keep losing in the attempt to win.

Amounts of wins and losses do not generally enter the picture.  Naturally you would think that, say a person with $500.00 buy-in wins about $1,500.00 would stop, cash out and leave.  Or a person that buys in with $500.00 loses, he would also stop and leave calling it a good try.  (Amounts stated are just for example purposes only.)  But, more times than others, that will not happen, not by far!  The person that won the money will have a complete change of mind frame and became convinced as to how easy and how profitable the game is to play.  "Hell, I worked all week over 40 hours for $ XYZ and now I just received double that for 20 minuets of my time".  BINGO!  That person will continue and continue until the variance and house retracts their money as well as the player's buy-in and most likely subsequent and repeated buy-ins that usually will happen.  As well, the person that lost will also continue to buy-in and attempt to win either because of his past wins or what he has witnessed while playing or watching the game.  Although their mind frames might be perfectly working, most players for quite some time---just do not have the proper mind-set and conscious knowledge of what the volatility of the game actually can produce as well as their own agenda and protocols that can hurt any chance they have for positive sessions.  The reason being, the #1 reason is the player's 'plateau' and what the player has or has not experienced in his/her past.  Once you can figure that out, you have just added a ton of ammunition to your arsenal labeled, willpower-patience-knowledge-short term plan-control and player's advantage.

Once you have played a while (more for some and less for others) you will 100% relate to those two scenarios I named above, and by the way, those are the only two things that will generally happen at the baccarat tables the highest majority of the time.  I stress--the 'highest majority' of the time.   

Another reason, right after the failure to recognize and be 100% conscious of your 'plateau'.  Is the player having one set of beliefs when they sit down at the table, and another when they are not at the table?  By that I mean, a player is looking north only, one way.  That translates to say a player that believes and will wager only when one or even a certain number of things will happen.  As well as that player's belief in obtaining a certain amount of wins, or having a certain stop loss, or playing a certain amount of time.  Sure, certain things or events do happen and happen either more frequently or less frequently than others, but the sad part is those times cannot always be identified by the player.  However, things change---and for all kinds of reasons the players have absolutely no control over and never will.  Some recognize the change as it is happening and so many do not.  And therein lies the majority of the problem.  So, what is a player to do?  A player should have a lot more than his one-sided belief for all the numerous things and events that can and do effect the game of baccarat as well as himself while playing the game.  The more 'well-rounded' player will believe in; north, northeast, east, southeast, south, southwest, west and northwest, all with equal possibilities of any path being the one to take.

There are too many variabilities, beliefs and attitudes to properly define what each of us should or should not do in the many variable situations the game presents throughout and the player faces.  And, those that will tell you to do 'so and so' after 'such and such' are normally selling a system or a pre-set course of play that will never ever prevail with any kind of consistency.  I will not venture to discuss the pros and cons for all those numerous types of systems or recommendations for probability.  They will only cost the highest majority of the players trying them, all kinds of money.  Worse yet, when someone wins with one of them, they become totally addicted to that system or style, and the damage will add up fiercely, quickly and with great damage. 

So, if you think a bet-placement/bet-selection system is all that is required to profit from this game, as well as set, 'one-sided beliefs', you are only fooling yourself.   

Lack Of Visualization--Tangible/Intangible

All of the above interfaces with the baccarat player, realize it, acknowledge it, ignore it, whatever, it is your choice.

Like in most other thinking or labor dependent type of processes where there is a rationalizing/deduction process for what to do or what should be done, all 3 of the areas identified in the title, Lack Of Visualization--Tangible/Intangible  will usually come into play. 

Lack Of:  Just because something is lacking, does not mean, it does not exist.  Does not mean, it will not come around.  Does not mean, it is going to make a huge showing/appearance.  Does not mean, it cannot come appear relatively easy. 

Lack Of is by far and large the single most ruining factor of the game of baccarat for countless players.  Do not kid yourself, the very opposite, An Abundance of, will also be a ruining factor but in my opinion, not nearly as much as the lack of, infliction.  Players just do not visualize the streaks, runs, large clusters and related winning events that formed sections within the shoe.  The players are basically negative and leery because of their own or their friends losing experiences.  So, their psych convinces them that, because they do not see it up on the board,it is not coming, etc.  Then when it does, they still will not believe it or even recognize it, the typical and proverbial 'double whammy'.  Boom!  They got smacked on the side of their heads.  And that happens, admit it or not, consistently!

Here is a non-baccarat analogy of, Lack Of.  Say you are mowing your lawn and it is thick.  You are happily walking behind your mower, usually never a problem.  However, all of a sudden 'Bang-Clack-Clack-Cling', etc.  Huge noises and all of a sudden your mower cuts out.  You tip the mower to one side and you see some large metal debris pieces of 'whatever'.  You could have walked the yard real quick and looked for such objects but, you reason with yourself and justify your laziness by saying, that never happened before.  Kind of like when you play a baccarat shoe and it was so choppy everyone was losing money by wagering for the repeats that never came.  Then once you started wagering the chop it went to a 14 or 16 run/streak Banker or Player and you missed it all.  You missed it for the same reason, you failed to see it or even believe it could be there and come forward.   

Visualization:   The trickiest and the most difficult by far, is the fact that there is the visualization factor at the game of baccarat.  While other card games within the casino might be solely based on numbers and some other technical thought process, baccarat has numerous visual influencing events continuing though out the shoe that effect the highest majority of all players.   


____        ____     C         K


____       ____                      ____   ____   ____    K



What happens if you put the letters SU/FU/CO/DI, etc., in the first 2 spots of the first work where the 'CK' are already inserted?  People visualize but still can be so confusing or leaning towards the non-appropriate and the farthest thing from the truth or what will actually happen, etc.   

As in baccarat and the score board, the score board, etc., it is all resting with the player and his interpretation of what he sees.  Many people will look at the above and immediately say 'Suck or F*ck'.  But the real phase that should appear there would be 'Back to Work'. 

Negative.  Wise.  Derogatory.  Like, a 'WOW' effect was sought, etc.
Enticing.  Bold statement.  While it could have been just that, very possibly it could have been the complete opposite with a subtle and very non-head turning phrase.

Same as when a streak of either B or P is about to happen, not really any different, IMO.


B---P--B--P--B--P--B--P--B--P--B--P--B--P--B
B---P--B--- -B-- P--- - -P--- ---- -- ---P--B---   B
B---P--B-- ---  ---- -- -P--- ---- ----  --- - - B
                                                           B

When you get to the above point, just about all the players would be wagering heavy for the 'cut' and getting deeper into the shoe with negative progression after negative progression after negative progression from the 2nd Banker on.  Unlike the old-school Bac players that would be counting on the streak/run with their reasoning being, the 4th Banker with no previous runs past 3 repeats. 



B--P---B--P--B---P---B---P--B-P---B--P---B--P-B
B--P---B---  -B---P--- ---     -- --P-   ----P---B--- -B
B--P---B--- ----  ---  ---- - ---- ---P---  ---- ----B
                                                                B
                                                                B
                                                                B B B B B B B B T B


The score board has done the very same thing to baccarat!  No difference.  That is why it is there.  It is a complicated thing, you just ca not say I will wager this or that for the obvious reasons.  Then again, on the other hand, you will only hurt yourself when you say, "I will wager this way because the other way is the way the casino is counting on the money wagering".  If you focus on the board it will play games with you.  It will prove to be rationale and then irrational, then predictable and then it will be the total opposite so clear you will actually blame yourself for not following it. 

Tangible/Intangible:  Intangible items effecting your play; Illusions, Perceptions, Influences and Frame-of-Mind.  Tangible items effecting your play; Diminishing Probability, Regression to the Means, Sections, Turning Points, Positive Progressions, Negative Progressions, Plateaus, 1 + 4 Side Wagers, Situation Awareness and Money Management Systems. 

There are plenty of them.  They all in one way or another effect your decision making ability while wagering.  If you do not think so, you better take a second look into them all.  The game of baccarat is much more than merely looking at the score board and figuring 'such and such' will happen because of 'so and so', etc.  And that is how the intangibles will come up and haunt you forcing the majority of the players into 'forced rapid wagering' to recover their funds lost or a clouded and unfocused state of mind causing the player not to make the easiest and most rational decisions. 

As much as some people write about the game of baccarat, is so easily beatable by merely figuring out what is due to come up on the score board and if they fail, they have convinced themselves all they need to do is enter into a negative progression wagering attack and they will recoup all their lost funds plus one unit.  In a perfect world of gambling that is slanted towards the player that, might be possible but it is wishful thinking and one or both will eat you up---the mathematics or the tangible/intangible items that are there whether you like it or not

For those of you that don't me,  I am in my mid 50's and been around the casinos in Atlantic City since the 1980's, just a couple years after they made gambling legal in New Jersey.  Then Las Vegas as well as the two in Eastern Connecticut in the mid to late1990's. Occasionally playing in Reno, Southern California and Biloxi, Mississippi. After moving from the northeast after the disaster of 9/11 happened, I played at numerous properties around the upper and central Midwest. 

Although I am not a grind, daily type of player, I have spent many hours in various types of casinos playing mostly baccarat and some black jack.  I met numerous kinds of people in the various casinos I have frequented.  Some were business trips and some were strictly personal. We used to mix business with the casino, especially when I was in business in NYC and New Jersey.  Relationships were defined and refined along the boardwalk in Atlantic City.  Those times above all else, were the most memorable and precious to myself in many many ways.  Of course all this started before the internet really picked up and became the item it did, especially in gambling, information, systems and false perceptions, etc.
 
While many members on here are elusive and quite, they believe in and subscribe to certain systematic and grinding type ways of gambling, I do not.  I don't gamble for a hundred dollars a day to sustain myself, there is nothing wrong doing that, just what comes with that is a different frame of mind than the one I have about gambling and casinos. I never will be a grind gambler as I enjoy the safety and the income that, owning or partnering in a business has. I use gambling as an outlet and a sport of fun, for lack of a longer explanation.  I do okay at it and while I do not classify myself as a recreational gambler or degenerate gambler, for the most part I have fun and enjoy myself at the casinos I go to.  The best analogy I can give is about a couple of bowlers I know.  One of them lives eats and breathes to bowl.  He wagers on it, plays it and is always at one of several bowling alleys.  The several times I have and my other friends have bowled with him, he takes it serious, doesn't drink, doesn't laugh, puts on a mean face and needs to make strikes or spares each and every time or his evening falls apart.  The other guy has a professional career in a 'non-bowling' field and when we do bowl together, he is funny, laughing, buying everyone food and doesn't matter if he wins or comes in last place.  I tend to think I am the same with gambling as the second bowler I described.

I have experienced family outings, holiday celebrations, get-a-ways, hundreds of concerts and shows, special family events and yearly birthdays, etc., at various casino properties where gambling was just part of the trip.  While some players do gamble for the lifestyle, I never have.  It is just that my life style included going to the casino. We merely used the casinos for the same purpose someone would travel to another part of the country to a resort property.

A handful of relationships have evolved and stayed to this very day, while some have went by the way side due to death, businesses or marriages dissolved, casino properties closing or being bought out or just in general—change of lifestyle and people moving away with their lives.  So, the relationships that are left are special and will remain for quite some time I figure from this point.   The other night I get a phone call from someone I knew in Las Vegas from the late 1980's.  He started as a dealer and made his way up to senior management in the marketing department at the Las Vegas Hilton.  I met him and knew him from there and we associated with each other outside of the property as well.  More than the 'player-casino personnel' type of relationship by far.  Again, this all started and took place before the 'internet on-line electro-techy' instant everything era that we are in since 2005 or so. 

He is currently at another casino property in Las Vegas, on the strip but not a mid-strip huge mega resort that I got burned out on, as I mentioned in other postings.  He is at a property that is striving to bring back a bit of the pre-2000 Vegas days and has been fairly successful at doing so.  We talked about the 1980's and 1990's Las Vegas.  What a great phone conversation to tell you guys the absolute truth.  I mentioned writing on this board and brought up the aspect of what some talk about here just to see what he thought.  On the other end of my phone was a guy that literally spent his entire life in a casino, day in and day out for nearly the past 40 years, just about.  You know, at times standing and watching players at the tables for 20 hours at a time.  He laughed so hard, choked and about had a shortness of breath when I detailed about systems and related bet-placement methods that are discussed here.   He says, 'you know—I have witnessed players winning and losing millions of dollars, and I will tell you from experience and real-life happenings, the wins come at the least suspecting times to the players that generally don't count of them.  The losses come to those players that wager because they absolutely know they can beat the game and these days—those far outnumber the ones before in the 80's and the 90's'.

Then we went on to the best part of the conversation, the reminiscing of the Las Vegas Hilton.  Although considered 'off-strip' it was almost adjacent to it.  Their baccarat pit was almost second to none in Vegas for numerous years.  Of course the icing on the Hilton's cake was their entertainment.  And their entertainment broke all-time records with the biggest names in show business.   I think he started there a few years before I got out of high school which was in 1976.  So he caught the last couple of years of Elvis Presley's all time super performances at The Hilton and his attendance breaking 100% sold-out shows.  Same with Liberace, AKA 'Mr. Showmanship'.  It was during that time I met my friend at The Hilton.  And the boxing matches, those were the icing on the cake as well, some of the largest worldwide boxing matches, happened at The Hilton. 

The phone call continued and my friend went on to reminisce about one of the Liberace concert weekends we were at.  We just got to Vegas and was checking in, my friend hustles me away from the lobby and the person that was with me to get something to eat.  Didn't even finish the check in and he told them to put my bags in the room and we would be back later.  We actually went off property to a place now closed, it was called "Foxy's Firehouse Casino" and as we were eating, he told me he booked me a suite on the 13th floor along with some other baccarat players.  Unlike the highest majority of hotels and office buildings, The Hilton did not believe in the unlucky 13th floor (known as 'Triskaidekaphobia) and my trip will be quite profitable that weekend.  He cracks up laughing when he tells me about the look on my face when he said, the suite was on the 13th floor. LOL, I laughed so hard how he remembered that after all these years.   I visited him and another guy that I knew back from the Hilton days in Vegas along with my little son from my current marriage.  That was during Asian New Year back in 2015 and it was a great week.  When he gave us a tour at the current property he is at, he kept telling my son about Elvis, Liberace, and the rest of the famous entertainers and the look from my son was priceless.  Every once in a while we would look at each other and just wink, but he felt compelled for some reason to explain to a 2 year old about the 1980's.  My wife wasn't even listening, she was consumed in eating her lunch.

He brought up how our entire aisle in the Hilton's showroom, a few rows from the stage—got up and danced when Liberace played his song 'Boogie Woogie'.  He said if it was a dance contest we would have made complete fools of ourselves and that was the reason he loved all his players so much—because we were so real and so fun—it didn't even seem like a job.  He further went on to compare back then to the present and although there are some down to earth players, overall it is another world of casino patrons.  Amen, I second that.

So, for those of you that go into a casino to sit and grind and sweat and cuss life, I understand and I am sorry for any desperation that the casino brings out in you.  But in all realty, the casino is no different than so many large hotel resort type of properties that do not possess gaming where many just experience lost money in going and yet others, get extreme value for their dollars spent including a couple of words, that have different meanings to each of us, enjoyment and experiences.

So the last 4 you got 2 right.  Pretty much like black or red but you have to wait longer.

I heard through he grapevine that the Utah Jazz will win tonight.

Special, systemic-analyzed-researched and besides, the head monkey guarantees the win!

Randomness, Equality, Equaling Out--Bias

Whatever you want to call it or label it.  Take 80 + - hands in a shoe of baccarat and without something of random events from happening, there would be either all Bankers all Players or a perfect alternating chop-chop of Banker then Player for the entire shoe.  I have played the game of baccarat for well over 35 years and the only thing I ever saw that even came close was 3 shoes of thousands and thousands and thousands of shoes.  One shoe had the entire shoe of Banker-Player chop-chop alternating hands with some ties in it, from start to finish.  The other shoe had all doubles in it from start to finish except one 3 which I think was 3 Bankers in a row.  The last one was a shoe without ties in it, no ties not even one, which was only good for those of us who don't wager for the tie.  But those are the only 3 shoes with the whole shoe being something  with no random acts so to speak that I ever saw.  But, there certainly is varying types of randomness with each shoe of baccarat and at most times, the randomness throws almost every player off their desired result.  That is the problem. 

This is where the largest part of the wagering aspect of 'technical and strategy' comes into play.  With agreement or without agreement.  Second to none.   Randomness either makes it easy or makes it harder, depending on what you need to match your wagering plan and decisions. 

While anything is possible in a shoe of baccarat the majority of times there are spikes with anywhere up to an abundance or a lack of clear patterns and trends  for sake of having to give a label to describe what I am talking about referring to such results as Bankers and Players, Singles, Doubles, 1's, 2's and 3's, Naturals that cut or stick, Ties that cut or stick, etc., etc., and so on.   With my comment, anything is possible , possible does not mean equaling or evening out, it does not mean producing something, it just means anything and everything  with no rhyme or reasoning or continuing or a set discontinuance of a pattern or trend, or any event that you can follow or go against-doesn't matter, whatever you want to term it. 

Many play the catch up game  throughout the shoe-meaning, one side is behind a greater amount and, I am going to wager for the inferior side to catch up.  Works and does not work, just about 50-50% of the times in reality.  Especially, when the inferior side starts to catch up and then fails while you got so confident and so consumed in progressions and wagering on that hope you got smacked once again and probably a larger loss than what put you in the position to start that kind of wagering. 

The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money. 

The problem is this.  Many players attempt to calculate or predict the randomness.  So many systems or bet placement methods and plans, will sell you their holy-grail attempt at some pre-planned amount of wagers, usually with a negative progression (just in the rare case you lose, LOL) that counts on the inferior side quickly catching up to the side that dominated.  The real downside to that, is the way the inferior side does catch up and how often the strikes are that will add positive wins to the inferior side, etc. 

Random and bias most certainly have maximums or an unwritten type of limit, is the best way to describe it.  You will not have 50 straight Bankers, followed by 30 straight Players.  Can it happen, possibility-but the odds would probability be something like 1:4,000,000 shoes or something like that.  Here is the guts of it.  Take all the statistical numbers you want from say 10,000 hands or a 100,000 shoes, whatever.  Apply the mean averaged results, meaning dividing it down to one shoe of 80 hands or so.  In fact, apply them to 3 or 5 shoes if you feel better, whatever amount of shoes you are sitting down to play that is.  What those winning hands produce for the small series of 3-5or 7 shoes you play cannot be reproduced with the stats that you ran on all your sampling.  That is why systems and bet placement methods do not prevail on any type of consistent basis.

A hot streak of Bankers or Players a long series of alternating chops or a shoe where every single natural cuts to the opposite side or any one of 10 other types of trends or events.  It will happen the same amount of times as the exact opposite happening.  Be it in the same shoe or one shoe compared to another shoe later in the evening.  Also, everything else with a touch of each one will also occur in between the shoe that produces the consistent trend and the shoe that has the complete opposite that occurred.  Random or bias happens, there is no way to stop it and as well you complicate your wagering enormously when you try to factor it in.  When you do that your thought process will become clouded and something that you do not want to creep up on you will normally set in and that is called aggravation and frustration.  The best wins and the clearest shoes I have experienced, were those played with no or little to none of both, both aggravation and frustration.  Been there and experienced it, many times.

Randomness and bias produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casinos greatest friend and the players worst nightmare.

Open your mind and forget mathematical strategy and computer analysis.  It really does not apply to the few shoes you will be playing at the casino. 

Many do not, few do.  IMO, it takes a good 20 years of playing.  I do not see how a recently introduced player to the game of baccarat can truly appreciate the volatility, the production and the true definitive nature of the paths this game will produce. 

There are 5 true aspects of the game that will govern how well or how bad you do.  I am leaving out all of the personal and outside things that may govern/control/influence you.  So, there are really the 5 areas as I outline here:

1)  Your bankroll or buy-in;
2)  Discipline and patience;
3)  Time;
4)  Your wager and wager beliefs;
5)  Exit strategy adhering to Money Management.

If you came on to this board searching for a system, meaning a mechanical system of set wagers that will prevail and you will profit, sorry--there is none.  If you really think there is such a thing, just Google 'systems baccarat gambling', etc., and send some cash and buy some, follow them and then please come back after several months and honestly report to us.  Now onward.


You can either play 1 shoe or 3 shoes and you can either put yourself in the short game or long game, etc.  The short game is the one I play which is the 'per session', whereas-the ones I played last week-last month or last year, I know nothing about and forget all wins or losses.  Or, you can most certainly play the long game of 50 or 100 or 250 shoes, 3 months or 6 months or 1 year, etc., and so on.  Either way, set a goal which is your exit strategy if you win or lose.  I am totally against a loss limit per session as I believe it is clearer and more advantageous to most all players to risk without fear or worry what is sitting in front of them for their ammunition.  I don't believe in bankrolls with shares per sessions.  All everyone I every known that had bankrolls and building and building on them, at one point was convinced they could break the casino and lost it all.  I know in my heart, the per session and per buy-in is the best way to go overall.  As far as wins and losses building, they really mean nothing except undo pressure and false conceptions of power, prior losing or winning that is.

Discipline and patience.  I have talked and written about these within my Blogs and on the board.  There is enough info here for those of you that, truly want to learn a base here.  If you play every hand or nearly every hand, shoe after shoe after shoe, you will not come out a winner many times.  If you do win it will only be the false fuel, that will be your downfall to an exhausted buy-in, bank roll or gambling funds, whatever you label your money with you or in reserve. 

Time.  Is your enemy in a casino.  Learn it and be conscious of it.  Don't always think there is the magical shoe from haven coming for you.  Play what is there and play it well and if you do win, if you apply my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, you cannot ever give back all the winning, never.

Your wager and you wager beliefs.  Anything and everything can work.  However, as I stated about mechanical systems above stands true and to the tallest order ever.  But nothing can repeatedly hold up, it is utterly impossible.

Exit strategy adhering to money management.  I stated about and it is easier than anything on the internet or what most believe.  My 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd. You cannot say, one more shoe and one more shoe.  You will give it all back and then start on your buy-in, etc.  If you can only remember the old school proverbial saying, "It is not 'if' it will happen, it is 'when' it will happen".

We all have a different outlook.  Some of us risk $300.00 to double it and walk away happier than a pig rolling around in poo-poo, religiously each and every time.  Yet others, will risk thousands or tens of thousands for the other end of the rainbow, 'life changing payoffs'.  While, many of us are in-between those two as well. 

There are 3 basic challenges that will block you and if you are smart enough, have guts enough, risk enough, be lucky enough, so on and so forth--you can 'at times' get around them:

1)  Length of time you play a session;
2)  Your buy-in or Bank Roll;
3)  Game mathematics.

I don't really need to say anything more about #'s 1 and 2. 

The last one, game mathematics', most of us do not know anything about and those that do, it generally will not predict or give them a mechanical method to wager and win with repetitiveness to prove it a 'system', therefore all the authors do is either exaggerate, lie, believe in false hoods, win and then lose the winnings and their own funds chasing what they won on their system, or loser's trying to reclaim their funds by marketing a false system that works haphazardly. 

All you really have to understand about 'house edge' is, it is real and there.  Period.  Forget the numbers and forget the statistics of it.  If you can only remember that the casino is absolutely guaranteed a payoff which amounts to a fixed percentage of your money going across their tables, then you are on the right track.  Seriously, that is all you need to know.  You cannot control it except with time, the time you are there gambling, that is all.  It doesn't not mean you will go broke if you play 100 hands at XYZ $ wager or anything of the like.  It means, the casino will eventually take all your buy-in, your bank roll, your funds, won or not.  It does not matter and the harder your head and the less experience you have, the more you will lose and the harder you will fall. 

People say all the time, "Gambling is extremely dangerous".  No it is not.  It is the players that are dangerous.  Gambling is no different than sky diving, scuba diving, auto or motorcycle racing, street vending in rough neighborhoods, etc., etc.  No different!  The difference is the players, the people.  People get that win money or a chance to win it, and they go crazy--they lose all good thoughts, skill and regime that gives them a shot and a decent chance at it.  I see it all the time and to me it is viable and tangible, to most it is not and it is only story or fairy tale.  I said it, I laid it out and it is 100% reality.

I read a technical book on gambling a long time ago.  There was lots and lots of numbers, figures and statistics in it.  Probably all true.  Actually probability spot-on.  So what?  Seriously, what do numbers have to do with the casino hold, the house advantage, the winners and the losers of the casino, etc., etc.?  Can the results of those tell you when and if a 14 Player or Banker streak will come out or a shoe that is 80% chop-chop or doubles and so on?  No.  It can not.  The casino's numbers are derived from months and months and years of business.  The same with statistics of the game, derived from tens of thousands of shoes, hundreds of thousands and millions of shoes, nothing to do with the little amount that will be produced when you actually play.  Those 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 shoes cannot be represented of the statistical numbers of the winners or losers or any subject matter, none.

So, back to the book.  I remember years later now and all the time in the middle.  Here it goes, I will attempt to explain it clearly and quickly.  Picture a large wheel, the size of a roulette wheel--only much larger.  Now hang that vertical from the ceiling.  It is hanging behind you as you play baccarat in any and all casinos, lowered each time you play--right behind you.  The wheel is your funds of your buy-in.  Forget your bank roll unless you play each time with your entire bankroll, but make the wheel anything you want, in my case it is always my buy-in.  On the top and directly across from that, on the bottom are the words, Win-Lose.  One on top and one the bottom.  On the sides are the words, Neutral-Rough.  One on each side.  The more you play, the harder you push, the faster the wheel will turn.  At one edge of the wheel there is a razor blade so sharp and it will never go dull.  The faster and harder you play the faster the wheel spins and makes contact with the razor.  The slower and more methodical you play, the slower the wheel spins.   

The operation of the razor against the wheel cannot be changed, it is the exact same as aging, making love, racing an auto, scuba diving, etc., etc.  You will crash, run out of fuel, run out of air, run out of time or just plain energy, and so on.  You will never ever play and follow the house edge of the + or - right at 1.0% as the stats say with baccarat.  And as far as breaking even due to variance, that is not really a function you can follow because you can not wager the amount of hands you will need for that to finish in reality due to the mathematical principals of the game to actually surface in statistical form. 

In finishing this up I will add the following.  Players doom themselves by their extremely uncontrollable impulsive nature of greed and fear.  Both, not one.  That is the problem IMO.  Then the players play rational styles and win and that only contributes to their upcoming demise because they play so hard and so aggressive they kill their chances to win.  And why is this?  Go back to my wheel explanation and all those casino house numbers and other actual and real statistics are hooked up to that razor scrapping away at the wheel hanging behind you.  Yes they are, no you cannot stop them, the wheel will turn and turn.

So when I say 'X,Y or Z' or you hear that proverbial saying, what does it mean.  Well to me it means, can I get 'X' before I lose 'Y' or will Z happen.

In closing I will give my summation of the actual downfall.  With baccarat, players concentrate way too much on attempting to do the impossible with the prediction of the future and forget to react to the past as only dangerous thoughts.  Then they either wager only on specific outcomes or believe that others cannot appear, either way, it all blows up in their face because the shoe will produce both events.  Then when you apply the actual mathematics and statistics to the game, (hence the score board, the pen, the paper is encouraged and provided so conveniently for you to utilize) it really doesn't matter and cannot help you with accuracy because the shoe will not produce wins that is consistent with your confidence level based upon that hard math of statistics you employed and you will lose every dollar of your buy-in and/or bank roll.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article142963604.html

Seriously, whatever you did is bad!  Sorry Vic, I tried to post pictures but now the message 'Security Check' shows not safe.  I cannot stand this, time consuming and senseless waste of time!  100%!

Vic, we really do need an edit button.  No way to correct mistakes after posting.  Also, much harder to post with knowing you have to get it right the first time, etc.  Also, once typing/posting we only have the one shot at it and the website still times out/defaults and upon posting cause of the amount of time-the post goes into default and wipes it out, etc.  Edit button will cure all of that. Thanks.

When do we get the EDIT feature back, because without it is a royal pain the rear!!!!! BIG TIME!!!  Vic?

 Yes sir, MIT is at it again.  First with the blackjack card counting team and now with computers that will predict the future.  No doubt (and I do have it on solid intelligence) that they almost have the rhythms done to predict where that little white ball will land!!! 

Absolutely and right-on! 

http://news.mit.edu/2016/teaching-machines-to-predict-the-future-0621

I will not engage in this thread past posting a factual, correct and absolutely 'spot-on' definition by an author that is extremely talented and has fantastic books out there.

Here it is:

The board is excellent.

Most of the people here understand gambling or at least contribute in a positive way. 

I said most, not all.  At least it is a much higher majority as compared to the other boards that a pretty much all 'consumerish' when talking about gambling. 

I think we all need to contribute something here.  It cost Vic $$$ for time and equipment and there is not much return for him.  Something guys?!!!!!

Let's call March pledge month and send our pledges in by the first week of April......

I hope the majority of you are with me, thanks for your time.

I pledge $50.00.