Pure Reality, you would think someone playing 100 plus shoes a week (on-line) would have hundreds of thousands of dollars every month in wins of course) and would send Vic at least $100.00 support of the board; BUT:
________________________________________________________________________________
Re: support
? Sent to: alrelax on: May 21, 2019, 04:00:48 pm ?
? You have forwarded or responded to this message. ? ReplyQuoteDelete
Quote from: alrelax on May 20, 2019, 11:39:42 pm
did anyone send you anything for support

Not a soul yet.

Anything & everything you can send is welcome as this initial week of our "transition" is a crucial time for us...

Lots of love to you & yours too,

Vic
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Pure Reality.  Challenge and call me a f***king lair and a Jack off!:
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Re: support -confirmed
? Sent to: alrelax on: May 22, 2019, 05:10:52 pm ?
? You have forwarded or responded to this message. ? ReplyQuoteDelete
Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2019, 04:27:04 pm
my buddy will take the other card, i just sent you the one by email, you should have it, check and confirm please.

YESSS! It's in the mail! Thank you from the bottom of our hearts Glen

I'm posting proper public confirmation. YOU ROCK BIG TIME!  Amazon cards are as good as cash around here 
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Quote from: Ted009 on January 05, 2017, 12:13:07 PM
Alrelax:
This is called many years of real table experiences. Thank you for taking the time to steer the wheels to the right direction for people like me. I have played the game for 14 years and I am still learning it.

I appreciated all your teachings. God bless you!

Ask Jimske and his friend Lugi/Mark/JohnO/Mary/Eaglite/Rolext or whatever nmae he is using this week for their advise, I lie, cheat and steal and oh yeah, I only played on line with $20.00 at a time.  tock this stuff, you guys are above me by leaps and bounds!

BUMP.  This post is short but classically IMO, Sweet!

Hey, WOW, it even has a positive comment by our very own 21Aces that last I heard increased his fleet of private Lear Jets to 7 from 4. 

I bumped this thread since so many ask its very content.

"That is, the non-conformance of the 3 or 5 or 7 baccarat shoes you sit down to play with the overall averages and the data results of all the statistician's, computers and baccarat experts here and elsewhere.  Those shoes in front of you at 1:10 AM tonight are not going to be the result(s) of Joe Schmo's 100,000 shoes or Grandma Kitty's 6 time 10,000 shoes findings, period!"

Play To Win

I personally play to win, not to break even or win a couple or a few units.  Not conducive at all to winning something worthwhile for the risk of the capital.  Same at a business, why bust your hump, long hours, putting up a couple hundred to few hundred thousand dollar investment and risk everything to break even, pay taxes, pay help, hopefully make as much without the benefits of working for a large company with lots of benefits, etc., etc., and so on?  There is no difference IMO! 

With that said, I play to win.  So much on the internet about statistical, breaking even at worst and hopefully reaching a goal with always a few units.  (I am sorry, reaching a goal with a lot of units or sizable amounts is unrealistic and will cause the player to lose most every time).  I stated yesterday what my bank roll is, what I normally classify as a win, what a risk is in quantitative amounts, etc. 

Statistical expectation is probably the worst and most detrimental thing a Bac player can engage in, IMO.  A negative expectation game that hopes for something, usually one or two events to repeatedly happen out of the almost infinity possibilities of presentments that can and will occur during the few to several shoes a Bac player sits down to gamble at.  As far as the computer, great, OMG!  Simply looks great, run 40,000 hands and XYZ number of bets, that is 4,000 plus shoes.  HEY HUN, I WILL BE BACK IN A LITTLE BIT, I AM GOING TO THE CASINO TO PLACE A FEW HUNDRED WAGERS WHILE I SIT THROUGH 4,0000 SHOES OF BACCARAT. 

Anyway, my friends if you really read into things, I have written here regarding Bac you will witness what it really takes.  And it is much more than the preached about FLD, OLD, DBL and all the other predetermined and scheduled bet selections you believe will happen after such and such occurs.  That shoe with the Players box that occurred in the beginning of it with all the Panda 8s is a perfect example.  The reason so many do not and cannot capitalize on those fantastic and absolutely wonderful gimmie presentments, is so few remember the equilibrium of almost every shoe as well as always bet Banker because you have a slight advantage type of preaching and advice from all the so called well known experts of the internet, etc.  Pure rubbish has been preached on the internet with most of the preachers being non players, just IMO, professional authors of one type or another or a purveyor of selling something, remember Stephen Trabone for example?

Here is the Players Box I am referring to.  These presentments happen and they happen a lot more than one thinks.  Not every shoe, but so what.  They do come around every few shoes.  Just almost all Bac players are so impatient as well as completely one sided or against everything that could work for some reason or another when actually at a table.  On-line gaming, I have not one clue and can not comment what it takes or what is harmful.  As far as at the B&M Casino, I know and I know extremely well. 

https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/6-01-2019-shoe-absolutely-classic-a-work-of-art!/

Here is another one, the presentments are easy money and lots of it for the player that will stop wagering for the couple of units with the break even as worst case scenario and believing in 1s and 2s which are the most predominantly believed in and talked about event I have ever seen.

Look at these boards on one of my previous posts! Look at those presentments. Look at those repetitive side wagers occurring.  I do not care what any statistics say, I care about winning and I care about what is being presented from the shoe directly in front of me.  Nothing else. 

https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/5-23-19-to-5-24-19-three-shoes-omg!-bang-the-casino!/

Stop the belief in the statistical results that you will never replicate in the B&M Casino, never ever.  You are sitting down at an unknown section of shoes, that are not and cannot adhere to any results of any group of tests that you studied, conducted or believe in.  The easiest and most profitable way to profit and profit very nicely at Bac is to play the shoe(s) that are in front of you without any bias, direct comparison to others, equilibrium at some point, complete neutralism without expecting something to happen with prescheduled and bet selection based upon beliefs that XYZ has to come out because ABC happened or did not happen.  You must also apply a correct money management method that 100% allows you to keep winning while dividing up your previous win employing a stop loss based on failure to capitalize on wins and not on your buy in or bank roll volume, etc. 

I Love You Guys, Peace Out Bro.  Alrelax/Glen.

I remembered last night growing up in New York.  I was about 5 years or so.  My dad used to square off on the neighbor repeatedly because he would mow his lawn at night time.  Complete with one of those flashlight/lamps you strap to your head type of get up.  My dad always yelled at the guy.  One night my dad called the police department.  They came out and the bottom line was, the guy was allowed to be cutting his lawn to 10:00 PM, that is the time the noise ordinance kicked in and the noise from the lawn mower was absolutely permitted prior to 10PM and after 7AM.  I do believe the arguments started around 8:30 but before 9:00PM.  A week or so after the police came and stated all that, the guy would start up his mower after 9:30PM and be finished by 10:00 of course.  Within the law, but the guy was still a complete jerk off. 

Sounds familiar huh?

If you don't like it, do not read it.  If you do not enjoy it, learn from it, see something useful and tangible for yourself in it, likewise, do not read it.

Not enjoying what you are reading, researching, surveying, finding yourself being sucked in and responding to, etc.? 
Quit. It is okay. You are allowed to do it.  Absolutely 100%, no penalty, less stress and of course, more dignity and politeness all the way around. 

Just quit. Stop.  Move on to something else, by all means.  In fact, if you do not, you are wasting your valuable time and insulting yourself.  You are actually demeaning and stealing from your own precious time! 

I can already feel some readers cringing with rage at this idea. Lucky for me, this group is now required by their own solemn values to read through the entirety of my argument. They can't leave if they are not enjoying it. This whole piece is now a hostage situation.  Of course one or two will respond and say, "I only read the first sentence of each paragraph or a paragraph here and there, so you are wrong once again, I did not waste my time, but I have to say you are so foolish for wasting your time writing such rubbish"  Yeah right!  LOL, LOL to the max, they read my entire script!  Yes sir they did!

But there is a reason to my madness.  There absolutely is and it is a valid one and it is known as what I title it, The Barnes & Noble Syndrome.  Practiced by so many of us, in fact, IMO most of us if not all.

There are a lot of books, websites, message boards, chat rooms, etc., out there and we attempt to be part of some if not all of them, at least many of the well known really great members do anyway. You simply will not read every book, chat with everyone, read all the message boards about baccarat and gambling in your lifetime.  As The Twilight Zone teaches, even if you are the final person on Earth with nothing but time to read, the powerful forces of dramatic irony will ensure your glasses fall to the floor and shatter. We must accept that when we walk away from this life, we will each leave behind a number of books, notes, messages unpublished, drafts, etc., that, had we ever flicked through their pages, could have had a profound effect on our lives. That is sad to imagine but it is a fact of life. It also makes every second you spend wasting your time on a message board, a book, notes, talking with adverse people, as well as on Glens Blog on BetSelection, that does not grab you entire attention, interest and way to turn things into advantages for yourself; A complete waste of your most precious and valuable time.

I am not saying you should not persist with a book, a Blog or anything else, because it is difficult at first to grasp or understand the meaning of or how that information contained in such can and will benefit you.  Sometimes overcoming that initial struggle is what makes a story beautiful, time well spent, beneficial to you, etc., etc.  Slowly a world is unlocked to you as you move from decoding a story to coming along for the ride. That is not what I am talking about. I am talking about the moment we all know too well when you are one hundred pages deep, you have tried time and time again to engage with the text and yet you still don't care in the slightest about these people and their problems or their results they are attempting to exploit and expose.  You still disagree with everything they write, stand for and are actually becoming upset and frustrated by reading what those authors are writing and putting out there.

You find yourself flicking through their information over and over again just to calculate how many paragraphs you have left. The pile of books you have unread or the other websites, message boards and forums are calling to you. But for some reason, you keep struggling on and you stick with Glens Blog.  Why?  Are you really in touch and understanding and profiting?  Or is your sole mission and only drive you have to discredit, demean and humiliate Glen?  Seriously, move on it is time.   

If it were a film, you would walk out. If it were a Netflix series, you would move on and never think on it again. On regular TV you would flick the channel without thinking.  However, it is Glen's Blog and just maybe you doubt yourself and your apparent and prevalent goals you projected in published form already out there.  So you stick with reading Glen's Blog everyday and commenting on it, even it that means posting elsewhere in BetSelection or one of the other message forums that you are obviously on, under the same name or one of many handles you really do have.  LOL.  So obvious and so fore front in your life of gambling.

Part of this is your realization of the baccarat fallacy coupled with the eventual realization but non admitted reality, Glen has been there, just might be something I can use and gain an advantage with. When I have already invested so much time, walking away suddenly means that time is wasted.  So, to avoid this loss, we waste more time and more and more to justify the time we had already spent.  Okay there, I said it, use that for your justification of your time wasted reading Glens Blog and other previously posted threads elsewhere on BetSelection. 

Instead, go back to that first moment and remember, you have not poured too much time into this already and quit. You have simply poured exactly the right amount of time to realize this is not for you and move on or be secluded to websites like GF, BeatTheCasino, VegasMessageBoard or The Wizard of Odds or Vegas or whatever it is called these days.  Learn about the $20.00 front desk trick and Axel and Bob and all those members posting such perfect gambling knowledge with tens of thousands of threads and everything else too numerous to mention.  Read all the countless threads about all the pro gamblers and their teams and all the money they easily make and do not have to work for a living.  OMG, once again, LOL.  I thought my little boy's books like, Captain Underpants were far fetched but those actually make sense now!

People do not like to be defeated by anything let alone admitting that someone like Glen actually does speak the truth, have experience, knowledge and wherewithal within the game of baccarat. We can see there might be something there and maybe there really is wisdom in those final thoughts that would make so much and so many threads entirely justified. Sometimes that is true but it is very much the exception rather than the rule for the people that have such negative, blocked and drama driven mind frames. Why must those types of people follow something bad all the way to the end on the off chance it might turn good, great or offering me an advantage I can use?  That is something you would have to ask yourself, as you are the only one that can accurately put it in the proper context for yourself.

At some point it becomes a calculation of ego, no matter if you want to admit it or not, it really does.  Probably because if you do not read it and that very thing Glen is talking about, exposing, revealing and exploiting, is actually an advantage you torture yourself with that very thing.  There are no other explanations, none. It occupies your mind like the tell-tale heart, mocking you, symbolizing your failure.

But it does not have to be like this. There is a joy that comes from clicking Glen off or any Blog or website, or forum, or other form of media, that is not working for you. It is a little expression of freedom and control. It is like ending a stale relationship. It is not your fault it did not work out. It is not the website owners or the thread authors fault either. But it is just not working for you. Sure, it is sad to say goodbye, but you tried and now possibility is once again at your fingertips.  Do yourself a huge favor, click Glen off, stay away and save your precious time, after all, you know everything.  Seriously, correct?

I am telling you to let them me go. You will be a better and more informed person for doing just that.  After all, you will have more time and peace of mind to actually do all those things you always wanted to do. And best of all, you will not display the hatred and the redundant gibberish you have been. 

We are here to learn, expand our way of thinking, apply things that may give us or adjust advantages, and as well, enjoy ourselves.    Not be 'guilted' by things we spend our precious and valuable time reading and studying or attempting to discredit, isn't that correct?  Just possibly those very same things were dynamic experiences, expressions and thread offerings that we had no business saying the things we have said about them. However, some of the members here, mostly those on again and off again types, I can only assume with the hatred and the negativity some of you possess, you are not.

Those very people already lost you. It is over. Let them go.  Peace out bro, I love you guys.  Alrelax/Glen.

When things go perfect, great no problem or question.  However, in baccarat, most people have one way thought control and little patience.  Not all the way, just most of the time.  Even at the off hours, say a weekday and it is midnight or 2 or 3 AM.  Two or three people at a bac table.  No rush, no crowd, nowhere to really go.  Players down a little, suddenly it is faster and faster and less thinking and losing touch with reality.  Just happens most of the times.

When you see the shoe producing and presenting the opposite of your thoughts, no problem, you generally switch up your way of thinking.  Then just about that time, the shoe then begins to present what you were wagering on just a few hands ago.  Key point!  Re-read that, because it happens over and over and over and most of us do not comprehend why we actually did something for so long a period of time.  Now the frustration sits in.  With it or against it.  With your thought plan or against it.  With the other players or against them.  Everything starts at one time.  You may not realize it, but that is exactly what is happening.  Plain and simple.

Worse yet, you stick it out, you still have buy-in risk capital left.  The shoe begins familiar presentments and you clearly see what it is producing, and it is sticking, your thoughts just got ultra-clear and spot on.  Beautiful, no?past beautiful.  Amazing! 

Failing to adhere to your own Levels & Plateaus, failing to wager with positive progressions when it is best and failing to back down and out, are the 3 largest players mistakes, IMO. 

Another one I have clearly found over the years that lends itself to me with great profitability on the side wagers.  That is, heavy Player results usually produces several closely produced Panda 8s, more so than heavy Bankers producing several Fortune 7s.  Most all into the game somewhere but those two things do produce a great deal within those two sections with the Panda 8, far outranking the F7 with multiple appearances. 

I have written about this, be careful there are times but only a few will be predictable, or at least upcoming, IMO.  Again, a choice of words and hopefully those few on here that live to nit pick and chastise will leave it go and just interpret what I said as experience and labeling for sake of explanation. 

Can you win big money while other times breaking even at worse without losing your buy in?  NO!  You can not, the leveling off and repeating shoes without rhyme or reason will forbid that very thing.  That is why I say, stop loss and stop win are detrimental to the serious players profitable results. 

They say, follow the pattern and win, but keep trying and lose.  By theory, you will only lose the last wager of a streak, no matter if the streak is repeating and strong or chop-chop and weak, etc.  The way so many, most all really, players get thrown off is the one or two results that surface during the real pattern or trend.  Hopefully you understand what I just stated.  But one thing for 100% sure, if you keep playing it or keep wagering for your scheduled thought, whether OLD, WLD or anything such as wagering for the decision before last, etc., and so on, you will grind yourself down and lose your buy in.  Period. 

You know, there was two fatal accidents near me the past few days.  Both of them the driver and/or occupants of the vehicle that was fatal were at fault.  Fault.  What is fault within a vehicle accident?  Fault means, that the cause of the liability, blame and reason for the accident was with a certain party, etc.  Yes, agreed.  No biggie. 

But it takes two to tango, no?  If the person that was at fault did not do something, then there would have been no accident, correct?  At least according to the technical and legal aspect of it all.  Of course there was another driver/person involved that hit the at fault driver's vehicle and crashed. 

In both cases it involved red lighted intersections.  One was a motorcycle.  Motorcycle ran the red light at high speed and it was the motorcycles fault.  However, the vehicle that ran into and over the motorcyclist was on the phone supposedly texting or watching her phone at her red light and when the light turned green, legally proceeded straight across her white line and stopping point.  She never looked to her left or right.  All she knew 100% is the light that was red in front of her turned green, time to GO.  And she did, right over the motorcyclist.  The motorcyclist died.  His fault.  He was convicted and sentenced.  She was exonerated. Case closed.

The next one their was a pickup truck with a trailer and boat, family coming back from the weekend out.  Pick up truck operator swerves to miss a piece of slow moving farm equipment over a steep blind hill where that pick up truck driver was supposedly going over 80 MPH in a 65 MPH zone.  They knew this because of the orange needle mark from the speedometer that was smashed against the plastic gauge cover of the instrument panel when it was pushed against the needle in the head on crash that resulted form the serve of the pickup truck.  The pickup truck swerved directly into another vehicle coming over the hill also at a high rate of speed and crashed head on into the one that swerved.  If the piece of farm equipment did not suddenly enter the roadway and as well, if the oncoming vehicle was not going so fast as well, the pickup truck with the boat and family never would have crashed.  Yes it was that one trucks fault with the boat and trailer, as far as the legal liability, etc.  But..............................

Whatever happened to common sense and driving to not cause accidents?  Whatever happened to looking multiple ways before entering or turning into or from an intersection, etc.?  Lord, when I received my CDL drivers license, when I took the road test at every single intersection or turn, a CDL driver is legally obligated to look 3 times, 3 separate times!  I grant you I do not always do that, but I do at least twice, no matter what time of day or night and no matter how light or heavy the traffic is.  I do! 

I have observed countless drivers pulling away from red lights and stop signs without ever turning their heads to the side.  They must do it with peripheral vision?  The largest contributing factor of crashes is at a red light or a turn where one vehicle strikes the other.  I watched yesterday, a lady at a red light watching her phone.  Very clear and when that light turned green, she accelerated, never ever looked to the side to see if someone stupid was running their red light or anything.  All she knew was that her light turned green and it was time to go forward.  WOW, really guys! 

Can I please interject here for certain points?

REF: 

"Final note. If a bac player have found betting lines capable to get a long term edge,  this edge will be quite limited hence susceptible to great fluctuations. That's why we should think about the large picture and not about the stupi.d single shoe we're playing at.
as."

These stupid shoes have made me huge amounts of money as compared to the grind and all the other ones, if played with isolation and then forgotten about as far as what normally happens, if I can borrow and use the word normally as some kind of explanation. 

Look at the pictures I post almost on a regular basis. 

If I look at the large picture I would lose every session, IMO.  Because the large picture brings on too much and too many possibilities that probably will not happen in the same amount of time we are sitting there playing.  What is going to happen is that STUPID SHOE with 20-25 Players to 3 Bankers immediately or 20-25 Bankers with 3 Players immediately, or 6 Panda 8s with three of them back to back to back or 15 Players and a few hands later 16 Bankers or two 3 card 8/9s followed by 4 Fortune 7s out of 7 or 8 straight Bankers hands winning or 7 doubles followed by 8 singles followed by 4 sets of 4 followed by (?).  And we would missed it all because we are expecting the long run with a calm mixture of what NORMALLY happens. 

But either way, with those stupid shoes or the calm normal one, if a player wagers strictly for those stupid crazy shoes as I have mentioned and shown lately and repeatably posted, he will go broke because there are more of the other calm and non-crazy type of shoes.  But when he is exposed to those other non-crazy and normal ones he will only make so much that will also disappear on his attempt to continue the same wagering pattern/decisions on ones that appear normal and calm but will not match his wagering, or eventually capitalize on those stupid ones when some other players are pulling down tens of thousands of dollars within a shoe or two.  Either way, any repetitive player doing the same thing will lose, either his bank roll or every buy in or just hopefully break even and recoup his losses because he stayed wagering the same on whatever he was attempting for, in dreadful and wrongful wagering consistency decision making/planning. 

IMO and experience and realizing profit on those stupid shoes.  My thoughts attempted to come out.  And not as a put down or a chastising attempt either.  As reality. 

My full 2 cents on 2 important subject raised by AsymB:  https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/two-things-re-presents-long-term-edge-and-stupid-shoes/msg66784/#msg66784

Gotta love with 100% lust and desire, jumping on another site (or other place) and reading a bit of what some Bac players actually put out there!  What a pick me up at 2AM closing my place on a slow night! 

Judge your wagering by the condition of the cards!  Fresh cards versus used and reshuffled cards.  LOL, physically fell off my chair laughing my guts out!  By he way, are we talking about dealer flipping only, as in original mini bac like $5.00 to $500.00 type games?  I have not seen a mini bac for years, I thought just about everything was Macau style where the cards have to be changed each and every shoe, they are zip lock bag, sealed and ID'd and put away. 

Also, what is with those not demanding a quick shuffle on pre-shuffled decks these days, every casino will do it, they have to according to most all state laws anyways or at least allowed at the discretion of the casino.  LOL, once again!

An hour or less for a complete 80 hand shoe of baccarat with all of its buy ins, problems, stoppage and calling over the floor.  Who in the frick gets under one hour complete games.  I guess it is limited to two low dollar players banging it out with some open floor mini table, no commission, $5 or $10 to $500/$1,000 table where both players are hyped and wager to get through the shoe.  Because I almost never ever see anything like that.

I also love the explanation of the bac players blaming their losses on drinking and having fun.  Personally I have never seen that, but again, maybe that is the open floor low dollar game next to blackjack at $2.00 to $50.00 a hand type of tables?  I really have never seen a bac player blame his losses on having fun and free drinks.   Makes you kind of wonder the atmosphere and type of casinos the message board bac experts are getting their stories from?

I also absolutely love the one about the pro Bac player grinding it out for repetitive 20 to 30 hour at a whack gigs and hardly ever losing, always breaks even after substantial losses or wins in the session end, almost every time he posts.  Or at least the few I did read. 

The other one I simply love is where the poster hates, despises another member on the board, yet he continually follows him, reads his stuff, comments on it and wastes his time when he continually in almost every post tells everyone else not to pay any attention to the person he is writing about and following and what a lair that person is, etc., etc. 

Visual Curve


[attachimg=1]


Once you figure out the basics of the game, you will see it a bit clearer.  You might not know every hand coming out, but your frame of mind will see things a little clearer, here is an example.  Jumbled up and a little bit easier to see.  Top Versus the Bottom:

[attachimg=2]

BY: Alrelax/Glen 6-4-2019

Meaningful relationship are inclinations. The relationships you engage that are derived from both personal and tangible things will produce knowledge, experience and information of all types.  That knowledge, experiences and information can be positive, great and money-making ammunition or it can very well be negative, horrible and a financial ruining adventure!  Therefore, you need to concentrate on yourself, your knowledge, experience, information sources and application of those things along with all the other psychological and frame-of-mind contributors that will allow you to excel in the game of baccarat.

Problem is; In the last 20 or so years, the huge growth that took off from the beginning of the internet and available information and technology days, is the exponential growth of INSTANT KNOWLEDGE, INSTANT ANSWERS, INSTANT EXPERIENCE for almost all taste it in your mouth gamblers, without the blood-sweat and tears of being in the trenches and learning it the way we used to.  Two different avenues, two different ways entirely.  Being at the table for years with decent players in real atmospheres of the real thing with real money is a world of difference than practicing on a computer, jumping on a forum and reading and not even having the judgement to know if the person you are learning from or talking to is a scam artist or a 3 month, new to the game player, etc., or anything of a hundred other off the wall motivating reasons the others are there and telling you stuff.

It is certainly two-fold, do not get me wrong.  First, there are millions and millions, billions and billions and most likely trillions and trillions of potentially interesting things on the internet.  However, when it comes to learning something, there is probably an equal amount of fake, non-researched, non-verified or just plain scam artist type of fake stuff as there are the real deal, nitty gritty bits and pieces.  Fun to think you just secretly read the holy grail or stumbled upon the greatest baccarat gambling formula from some claiming to be professional that spends all day on the computer causing misnomers about people, other members of forums as well as anything else or anyone else they can chastise, humiliate or talk down to.  Why?  I have no real idea except they are time wasters and what we used to call in the auto business, tire kickers. 

The expectation is, that we can use the information to make predication, math, statistical and all that work for us as well as their own special ways as to when and how to place wagers.  Nothing else exists in the game to win, according to those that write, post and press that information, etc.  And there most certainly is tons of other things that will allow you to win, keep winning, cash out and walk with profit or lose without ever really having a chance to consistently or sporadically take a profit from playing.  Back to the main purpose here.  I am not saying that we have not made any progress in positive and real applications of gaming knowledge because of the internet, we have.  But I do believe the negative and the wrong concerning gambling and baccarat are far in excess than the other way around on the internet message boards, forums and the paid sites.

Considering that there are millions and billions and trillions of papers and all that on the internet, it would be a shame if there was not useful stuff. But they are obviously not all real, useful or going to lead you immediately down easy street and onto the holy grail within a few days.  You will still have to define, interpreted and discover what is reliable, accurate and useful for your financial assets that you are risking and playing with and how to set your own protocols and plans.  The average Joe reading a good portion of the stuff we write, will not use any of it, IMO.  He will believe he is researching and learning, but his brain and own experiences and knowledge will overwhelm him with complete changes to most everything he reads on the internet when it comes to risking his own money on it.  Most, and I use that word with lightness, MOST, are not really contributing much to generating knowledge or really anything worthwhile at all.  Then they all get talked about and passed on with twists and turns, etc., etc.

And just about everyone, probably 95-98% conservatively, out of every 100 people at baccarat tables around the country, would never consider themselves an average Joe.  Never.  Never ever.  And therein lies today's problem, false positives.  FALSE-POSITIVES.  Read, absorb, believe and behave with false positives that control, influence and direct you to the wrong thinking, beliefs and theories at the baccarat table and you just earmarked your bank roll and every buy in for donation to the casino. 

That is why our predictions may be more prone to failure in this era of big data availability.  AKA: The Internet.  For those of you that really played prior to 2000, maybe 1996 or so, you cannot honestly tell me that there was all this theory, gossip, formulas and knowledge that we instantly find on all the message boards, forums and paid sites today back then.  No possible way, sorry it was not. 

As there is an exponential increase in the amount of available information. There is likewise and exponential increase in the number of hypothesis to investigate.  There is so much misunderstood and miscalculated, unproven and biased information out there to easily click on, it is dangerous.

But the sheer number of meaningful relationships within; The data, theories and experiences elaborating upon and posted on the internet forums, message boards, web sites, and sold by systems inventors (or whatever they are called, scam artists to doctors to wizards) , etc., is huge and then the correlation begins as to how the baccarat world really works and all that data, does not lend credence to anything, does not make it all or any of it the real truth.  Most of the data is just noise, as much as the universe is filled with empty space.  Reality, hard core reality.

So, a mathematical person can equate and explain problems, so what? So, a statistical person can lay out, define and explain equation involving millions of hands or shoes of baccarat, so what?  All of that and many more like them, all mean absolutely zero in wagering on the next 10 to 15 or 5 to 30 hands of baccarat at a casino.  No one knows the order of the cards and how they will come out.  No one. Unless of course you are a member of The Tran Crew and you already seen the cards come out and they were not shuffled going back in the shoe. 

There is knowledge and experience that is valuable as well as huge amounts that are nothing more than fallacy, wishful thinking and twisted reality that is by far most of the data out there.  The knowledge and experience that would lend actual credence to you, that you will find and read on the internet is low.  Some, but not much at all. 

And the bottom line is; That the real accurate data, tips, stories, experiences, long term consistent positive stuff is small, real small.  But the flip side is, the little bit that is out there, must be used correctly, not just used without further knowledge, care, concern or background, Understand?

Here is how false positives dominate the internet as well as the baccarat tables.  Hypotheses are 80% or better of true scientific data and correctly deemed to be true.  And about 90% of false hypotheses are correctly rejected.  And yet, because true findings are so rare, about two thirds or better of the finding deemed to be true, actually are false!

Why is the error rate so high? To some extent, that question cannot be answered with completeness the way you would like it to be or the way the system inventors, drama kings and the troublemakers spreading their everyday poop, would challenge it to be answered with exact completeness.  However, a close answer will be this in my opinion.  There are many reasons for it, some having to do with our psychological biases, some having to do with common methodological errors that are believed but the naive, and the rest having to do with misaligned incentives.  And the closest reason for the rest of the problem is a flawed type of statistical thinking that players of baccarat want to be winners are desperate to believe.  That is why the complete answer will never really be exposed and even if it is, those reasons will always, always keep it covered up and not widely spread.

Back when everyone was awed by AWACS Airplanes, New special units of the DEA, Specialized and Classified joint law enforcement, Military and Intelligence Agencies interfacing together to fight the War on Drugs, etc.  That was all headlines for a long time and many grabbing numbers justified everything for anyone seeking some numbers.  Numbers justify everything but mean nothing without people and their brains to use them, profit from them and get something from them.  Many of those same principals were transpired, used and reinvented into business models as well as the gambling industry from the laypersons standpoint anyways. 

And here is all you had to know if you ran into a bad spot and you were high up at the time.  Nikita Khrushchev.  When Khrushchev was forced out, he sat down and wrote 2 letters, he gave then to his successors.  And said; When you get yourself into a situation you can not get out of, open the first letter.  When you get yourself into another situation you can not get out of, open the second letter.  Well, soon enough this guy found himself in a tight place, so he opened the first letter, which said, Blame everything on me.  So, he blamed the old man and it worked liked a charm!  The guy went to the mirror, looked at himself in it, put his hands on his hips and said; You are the man, wow this stuff is easy, just blame some one and it goes away.  Well he got himself into a second situation he could not get out of, so he opened the second letter.  It said; Sit down and write 2 letters.

Understand?

I was playing this shoe with 2 others that i really admire in many ways.  The table was really full plus a couple of back bettors and quite a few family members as well.  It was late, real late when we got to the casino. 

That Asian Lady I have been mentioning in my posts is a suburb player in so many ways.  Patient most times (although she has her hyper have to get my lost money back fits at times) she is a pretty cool player.  She has a keen eye for the most parts with her side bets or side wagers, whatever you all label them.  We have done extremely well together.  She will usually stay too long and begin to get way over confident, the exact same way I used to be in my earlier days.  But I reserve and remove all my side wagered wins from the table these days.  Those are pocketed and forgotten about almost immediately.  Very important!

There was a guy there that is a great player.  Comes with $3,000.00 as a norm.  Buys in with $500 or $1,000 at a time.  Generally wins and leaves after 5 to 10 parlays no matter if her wins or losses.  Never goes to the ATM, cash checks or calls for additional money to be brought to the casino like most players these days continually do. 

He likes not one thing.  Cuts, chops, streaks, 1s or 2s, naturals effecting the next hand, etc., etc.  He will generally do a $300 or $400 wager and then parlay it once and parlay the same thing twice, before backing down once again.   We both seen and felt the Players in the beginning of this shoe.  We hit most of the first 7 straight down.  He wagered on the first one, waited on the second one, bet the Banker on the third one and then hit 2 of the Players continuing ones after the 4th one for two parlays.  I hit most of them, I switched to Banker once but immediately back to Players.   Everyone else was hyped, large wagers and lost all their buy ins and continued to buy in again and again, continuing on the Bankers side, especially on the 4th through the 7th Player win. 

This could have been a rock and roll table, and I mean that will all sincerity, but these people these days just will not concentrate and realize it is about taking money from the casino and not showing how smart you are or banging out another person on the opposite side, etc. 

As son as it switched to the Banker, almost all were on it and attempting to recoup thousands each one of them lost.  I was on the Players side.  I loved the Banker and thought the Banker would do the classic old school straight down, side by side to the Players.  I won the second Banker and the third Banker.

Three Natural Bankers, side by side to the three Natural Players.  Classic. I lost the last Banker of course.  Then the Player started again. The whole table took a break.  Some went to the restroom and some went to get something to drink.  Everyone was really tired, no doubt about it.  There was a couple of big time arguments with two of the guys at the table and their wives standing there screaming at them to leave.  I talked to the guy I like playing bac with and he said he would wager the Players side straight down to do a box. 

When everyone got back to the table, and yes, most of us will hold up the game and wait for people that specifically said they were coming back and do not play, etc.  This is a Macau style game and it is slow, real slow.  Shoes with a full table are never ever under 2 hours on their fastest days.  I wagered on the Players side and take max of $160.00 on the Panda 8 and the Panda 8 came out for the 2nd time right then.  3 with a 5 as the third card on top and the Bankers had 3 monkeys.   I rode it all the way down until it made the box.  Then I wagered on the Bankers and almost everyone stayed on Players.  It made the Banker.

Then the guy and me played the chop twice for the three times it did just that.  I got messed up, lost my concentration and frame of mind totally, after the 4 Bankers came out and the double Banker.  I stuck on the double Banker for additional Banks and should have waited.  I knew it but I did not.  Greed or whatever, overcame me and spun me around.  I started wagering too many hands.  Then the guy did great on all the chops with the longest section of chops appearing in the shoe, he caught them all, all  5 of them with $500, $1,000, $2,000 and $4,000.  The five one, which was the first of the 3 Panda 8s, he did wager $2,500 on the Player with the $160 on the P8 side wager.  he won and stopped playing.  I lost the 4 chops there.  I won large wagers for those 3 Players where the 3 back to back Panda 8s came out as well. 

What I failed to do was really wager heavy consistently without the support of the rest of them.  I get mad at myself for that.  Do not get me wrong, made great money on this shoe, real good money, but if the camaraderie stuck and stayed with us all, this would have been a killer shoe against the casino.  Just too many players these days are shooting for the hero-ship and the drama of knocking others out.  Why?  I have no idea really why.  I thought it was about making money, not losing it or breaking even or just a little bit. 

I found myself wagering larger on the bets when the others were all in concert or at least most of them, rather than being the lone player on one side with a substantial wager of say over $1,000.00 or in comparison with what the others had out there.

I wanted to get these pictures posted, I have more to add about the shoe.  By the way, the shoe up to hand 60 took nearly 3 hours.

I am dead tired and my eyes are blurring.  It is nearly 1 AM.  Stayed up since 11 PM to download, post and get these up. Been on my feet all day at my restaurant.  Up since 5:30 AM.  Time to sleep now.

I will try to finish it up tomorrow, I mean later today, LOL. 

Panda City!  6 Pandas before we stopped, I think when we cashed out and went back to say bye to everyone, there was 7 Panda 8s total. 

We did not regret leaving, the end of the shoe after hand 60, was awfully hard to play anyway, IMO. 

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The PANDA 8's in a row!  Back to Back to Back.  Two other P-8s sideways, next to each other.  This is what happens when no ties or extremely low ties and lots of naturals all clumping together.  Those are the money shoes.