Quote for April:

"It costs to be stupid. The stupider you are, the more it costs to learn Baccarat".

Said by a great baccarat player.

You said; "Playing by instinct or by experience may be valuable random walks but too much affected by emotional and actual factors. More importantly playing instinctively leads to bet too many hands."

1)  Exactly;

2)  Spot-On;

3)  Absolutely;

4)  No Argument;

5)  100%;

6)  Again, all the above 100 times!

However, if you do not play, you cannot win.  The emotional aspect of the game is huge and countless people playing for years never recognize that, address that or factor it in. 

Gotta love the others that post a one liner here and there and specialize in the degradation and attempt to humiliate another that actually takes time to write out, type out and post his thoughts, experiences, events and actions on the board here-or at the other forums as well.

You know the types I am referring to.  They come on and will try their best to twist and turn someone's efforts with no real purpose except to inflict drama and talk wash-woman soap opera style rebuttals to things other members have posted. 

Eventually they get banned, moderated or just go away.   Pretty sorry and sad.  They portray themselves as extremely experienced, successful and wealthy gamblers of one type or another and pro message board people.

No, i am not worried about them, I am not defending myself and I do not lose sleep over them.   It is amusing to say the least.  I finally found a comparison to those I observed at the casino the other night.  A guy rushes into the bathroom and bumps into several people walking in or out of the busy entrance/exit way to the restrooms.  One of the people he bumped into says, hey buddy there are two words called excuse me.     

H-Money, some know who this is and others do not.  I will bring you up to date.  I stopped posting about my friend I call H-Money due to a previous banned member here that was just too outspoken, lied and manipulated his way into things that he had no business or need to be into.  With that said, H-Money has gambled his family savings away in a short order of time.  I wrote about him previously and added many details and trip reports we both incurred as well as H-Money without myself present at the casino. 

With that said, if you know whom I am referring to, read on, if not?you will have to read some of the background on the board here and then you will understand.  Anyway, the past  month H-Money has been hitting the casino hard.  Most weeks he goes at least 3 times a week.  He has won several times but refuses to adhere to any of the money management methods I have showed him and we have both used together at the casinos.  He just plays and plays and plays.  If we are together and we win, he will leave with me.  He has no problem most of the times to stop play and cash out. 

The problem with H-Money comes when he removes himself from the casino and he is not with someone or not working at his business.  Then it sets in.  He needs the action, at least he tells himself that in such a way he convinces himself he can win additional money.  Even when he is at the casino, he continually tells himself this while he is playing, losing or winning, does not matter.  He continually reinforces himself with positive statements and believes, no matter what.

He pretty much risks $1,500.00 to $2,500.00 a week.  I will say, when he wins at least double what he has on him or bought in for, he will leave.  Sometimes, a bit better than in the past he will pay his bills and set aside a bit of cash for later in the week.  But if he does not hit that double mark or greater with a win, he will continue to play and eventually lose everything he brought to the casino.  Every time.  He just has that average Asian gambling mentality, that he can absolutely beat the game. When he is not in the casino, he is a different and much more rationale person about it all.  But put him in a casino, everything changes that quick, to this day. 

His new line to me is, man I am dying Glen, I am dying.  Help me get out of this.  That is what he says, and he says it repeatedly.  I tell him, plead with hi, to cut down on his play and concentrate.  He is a good player in theory, style and wagering, but he just has the mentality that he can change everything with the upcoming hands of each shoe. 

Last week he called me up early on Saturday morning, around 7 AM or so.  Told me how he lost $4,600.00 at the casino during the night and how he seen it coming but could not control himself.  I asked him if he was still going to gamble, he said of course and had no plans to stop.  He even told me he was borrowing money and collecting some that people owed him later that night and wanted to go to the casino on Sunday. 

He even admits to me now about how the Asian mentality and the Asians are typically thinking when they play the game.  Yet, he falls right into the trap he is knowledgeable about and exploiting for sake of conversation.  The more he plays and the more he loses, the more he convinces himself he is excluded from everything he learned.  LOL!  I laugh at him and he tries to justify everything he does with his knowledge and experience and he keeps telling me how everything will change. 

And by the way for those of you that think H-Money has had his privacy violated by me, you are assuming the furthest thing from the truth.  He is very knowledgeable of my message board and forum activities as well as reading the board.  He has no problem with it and there is zero issue.  Just thought I would throw that in since another likes to read what I write, turn it around and make accusations that are completely false, fraudulent and just plain unintelligent. 

I have nothing against Asians, the mother of my children is Asian and she is my wife.  Accusing me of being racist and anti-Asian is the most ridiculous and ludicrous thing one can say.  But the truth is, numerous Asians at every where I have played are among the hardest core, worst and most degenerate gamblers I have seen.  I put some whites and a few other races of players right there also, but the magnitude of the mentality of the Asian gambler, is shown exactly by my buddy whom is extremely smart and successful in many of his walks of life, except his baccarat play.  Plain and simple.  He takes a beating and he continues and thieves for additional beatings without saying the word, mercy.   

I appreciate wholeheartedly the time you took to type and post that Lugi. 

I normally do not hold grudges.  I have owned businesses from NYC brothels, to massages parlors, two Midtown Manhattan restaurants, to heavy wrecker service with name branded gas stations on the interstate highway ramps with tractor trailer garages and hazardous materials spill clean up business. I butted heads with a lot tougher and a lot meaner with expensive outcomes, LOL.   I am on to my most favorite business, a restaurant and bar with a state gaming license in fact.  I have had my share of ups and downs and clowns, should I say--in business.  I have gambled in high limit rooms, every single one in Atlantic City, Connecticut, Florida and lots of the Midwest, and at least a solid 70% in Vegas and Southern California, over the many years I have played.

Although I have squared off and had my share of pissing matches, I never would have started this thread or brought it up if Keith did not attempt to have me criminally charged and arrested for threatening him, when all I did in reality was text him 3 or 4 times on his published cell phone number, in the attempt to remove 5 copy and pasted posts I put on his public forum at the invite of one of his members. 

Anyway, I detest the man for his falseness, his outright egotistic personality and his outright lies and deceit.  He preaches what he stands for and a man will always act and sell himself for what he stands for, period. 

Thanks again for the time you took to write what you think. 

Quote from: CT70 on April 16, 2019, 03:42:20 PM
Luigi, you are correct in that in Baccarat, the overall (PA)player advantage over millions of hands is close to 50%. I will give you that. However, with all due respect, that statistic is not valid for the shoe that?s in front of you now. The shoe in front of you is unique. You will not beat it using the historical statistics of the game.
Baccarat is all about ?determining the length of events and their frequency of occurrence, thru use of statistics?. Once you can do that WITHOUT using a progression (meaning by flat betting only) you can become a consistent winner. That takes years to accomplish. Studying thousands of screenshots etc. The dedication required is no less than what an Olympic medalist would have to go thru to win a medal. Only a hand full of people can do it and most people would put what?s required in the ?too hard? basket. Most would rather just play with an outrageous negative progression to compensate for their inferior hit rate (HR), while hoping that their wins outnumber their losses.
I know you probably think I?m full of stuff because you?ve never witnessed or met a consistent player that can do what I just said. That?s ok, I?m not offended.
All I?m saying is that it is doable. The question is how many of you will put in the hard yards to get there? How many even have the time? All the ones I know are over age 60. It seems that?s when they have the time to really study the game.

I have re-read this again, twice.  And more and more, I find your words very familiar and very realistic. 

Truly you have been around the block, as that proverbial saying goes. 

Thanks for posting!  Alrelax/Glen

Yes, CT70 you are correct in many ways and many ways a seasoned bac player IMO comes to doom himself.


Something I wrote a while back, most probably never read it or seen it?:


"The harder and longer one plays, the more callous and laziness that person becomes to the important info 'signs' trends and values of the sections within each shoe.  Weather that is the total number of hours and shoes for the session or the number of years of experience.   Same as most workers say for example on a construction site.  The newer workers are seemingly alert, watching everything, everywhere, all the time.  Never letting their guard down, etc.  Super CAREFUL and METICULOUS (!!!!!!!!!!!) with all capital letter and exclamation points after.  As the months and years roll ahead, that same person pays less attention and has noticeably less concern for his surroundings.  Although he is now experienced and seasoned, he opens himself up to the immediate and surrounding hazards and obstacles he once was worried about, was always conscious about, avoided and stressed over.   Eventually there came a turning point where most of those things went into his subconscious.  In fact, so many become a bit lazy as well.  By the proper definition of the word 'lazy' as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact, a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that', as the saying goes.  And those very same seasoned players I am referring to, will wager 12 times against a Banker run of 15 because of the things I laid out.  Then those exact same seasoned players, will win their 16th hand which is the 'cut' to the other side they were so adamantly convinced was going to happen 13 hands ago, they won far less than even because of table limits or their own bank roll.  Of course they also missed the 12 streak of the other side immediately coming out next only because, "that is so rare and cannot happen"."

I guess I am not a scientist, a mathematician or a statistician analyst. 

With that said, and maybe the bulk of you are one of those 3 or all of them together?  I vividly see faces that lose at the baccarat table with their mouths open, their fists clinched, their mouths uttering words of numerous 4 letters words beginning with (F), (S), (C), and the 5 letter one with (B), etc., all the time.  I know the players and I know what they wager on, and like I just posted, a bit more in detail in another thread, I cannot pursue the scheduled wagering method that is proven to Win more than it loses by documented measurable approaches by proven results from a huge number of plays discovering that proverbial bias that I can exploit for certain wins, each and every time or even a number that is in excess of 50% of the plays I wager on.  It does not exist in the way you are seeking. 

Winning and losing at baccarat is far past the Luck of the Draw.  Same as going to the corner gas station.  You can go at 6:30 am when it is classically busy with everyone getting their gas, their bakery items, their cigarettes, using the restroom and assorted other things at a busy gas/c store local or highway place versus going at 2:20 in the afternoon or say at 11Pm at night.  However, I went the other night at 11:30 PM on a weekday and usually never busy at all.  Of course their was a house husband there buying all sorts of things with several problems and the cashier was inexperienced and it took the other 2 employees present a solid 5 minutes to straighten it all out while I stood there and tapped my foot on the floor being stuck, because I already pumped my gas without paying and I promised my little boy an Apple prepaid card that I had to get for his waking up in the morning that was a few hours away, and I choose that time to avoid the several minute wait in the early morning on the way to open my store, etc.  That could happen once out of 10 or once out of 100 times or possible could happen three out of three times?  And the alternative is, going at another prime time when I could be in or out within seconds or I could be stuck for twice as long as the off prime time took me with added aggravation I choose to avoid by a calculated decision that just did not pan out.  Kind of the same at baccarat, just dependent on variable factors that will exist that you do not know until you are in midst of them and if you compile, focus, deduce, add, look back on experience, change up your past results, and a whole host of other things, you might just get those four $2,000.00 wagers correct and those eight $200.00 wagers wrong, losing more wagers than you won but walking away with $6,400.00 of casino cash with your $2,500.00 buy in, for example. 

It is April!  The temperatures straightened out and the past several days 99% of all the snow melted and of course flooding came and washed out interstate highways and overflowing rivers and a few towns had to be evacuated, but this morning, here is what we woke up to:


[attachimg=1]

Let me clarify a bit more.  H-Money does blacks out, plainly blacks out at the table.  On the surface he is conscious of course, but he is blacked out in my opinion.  He is oblivious to reality.  Reality is where you need to constantly check into every min or two at the very most.  The game is not reality, the game is fantasy.  It is fantasy because it requires nothing but money to survive in it.  The same as a business without good service, product or real meaning.  Like having a storefront, an office with all the amenities, a showroom with no product or services.  And you believe as long as you are there to man it all, you will perpetually make money and have a shot at the forthcoming rainbow of everything.  Your rent, your taxes, your phones, your cable and internet, your coffee service, your cleaning service, and all the other numerous monthly charges and bills.  Your imaginary income with your desired payroll, just magically covered, each and every month.  No real commitments except what time to open and what time to close. 

And thus, not being in reality.  Same at the baccarat table my friends, no darn different, IMO!

The average person there is really not in reality.  He is in his little corner of safe haven, as long as he has money in front of him.  Completely tunes out the world in 99% of all areas.  Complete faith and belief, that the next hand or two or three will begin to make up for his past losses and set the way for his new found riches.  Everything forthcoming.  Everything will fix itself with nothing really to do. 

Maybe that is why I have actually been noticing those player's mouths dropping open when they continually lose hand after hand.   

Let me clarify here, January 19th I wrote that H-Money returns.  We played once together right then and I was going to start to write about him again.  He stopped and did not gamble again until March because our winter cam in and came in real hard here in the Central Midwest.  A few weeks ago he started gambling again.  I have not been with him since, except once in March, which was for a very small session in fact, maybe one hour at most.  He was holding his own, I lost my buy in and left.

We talk, we communicate, we discuss everything we did at the casino if the other did not go along, etc.  He does have a habit of leaving out details when he straight loses and the details is what I am after to understand.  So be it.  I can find out everything if I really want to at the two properties we go to mostly anyway. 

He played 6 times in March, meaning, six trips to the casino.  He was up over $10,000.00 and gave back $6,000.00 is the bottom line for March, so he won $4,000.00.   Since I was not writing about his trips or our sessions, I am recapping it.  I have had a few inquires from regulars on this board about what we have been doing.  Kind of since the break up of the several members that were the most frequent posters on BetSelction whom took it to be banned, moderated or quit on their own and take up space elsewhere.

H-Moneys problem like most players, especially the newer players is the win hold factor or the figuring what to do factor of playing.  Whether boredom sets in or your greed and lust gets the better part of you, you do need to come to terms with it all as I have outlined in great detail.  So many people here as well as within the casino will laugh at what I write, but I know in my heart it is true and applies to most all of us in so many numerous ways. 

The mathematicians and statisticians have a field day with what I say and they are so far off when it comes to the reality that inflicts itself on us all in a casino, at the baccarat tables, it is not even funny.  Just reality.   

H-Money lost another 4 of his last 6 sessions.  Just spoke to him on the phone tonight as well.

He won about $4,000.00 overall, he was up as much as $10,000.00 roughly, he said and then gave back 2 sessions of $3,000.00 each.  He is doing a bit better but could be holding even more of his wins, when he wins.  He just refuses to realize the reality of what happens at a bac table.

He is not unintelligent, just blindsided or plain forgets all basics when he begins to win. 

"To get a long term edge at this game one needs to bet huge and very rarely and it would be an outrageous statement to say otherwise. Especially if someone tries to demonstrate that every single shoe is controllable, a total fkng bighornshit".

The size of the huge wagers is all in perspective to the buy in as well as the average or the regular wagers of that player.

Every shoe is not controllable, 100 percent in agreement with that one.  Whomever says that either just started playing, has not played for any length of time and/or is attempting to spark up some drama talk. 

Classic, one of the best scene of all times.  From the movie Bugsy (1991 Movie) about Bugsy Seigal establishing gambling in Las Vegas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hkx_puJMF3c

I agree with you, but I was up literally hundreds of units, it was enough.  I would have struggled or won and lost at best.  The best opportunities are not always there, sticking around and praying for more or waiting for more would be frustrating and tempting.  I do believe it was well after midnight as well with an hour and half drive home and had to get up by 6 am.  I know myself and the same as the days I was in NYC or NJ and at Mo Sun or FW and it was midnight or 1 AM and I had a business to open early in the morning, limits are limits and things get complicated when a person plays to win and is not at ease.   

Good job on the wins for sure!