Step #1.
To be ahead of the game we have to get more wins than losses. Easier to say than done. But any bac player should remember this.
We do not need to be rocket scientists to do that: itlr betting Banker and its related distributions will provide more W than L. Period.
The obvious problem is that any W won't be counterbalanced by the L weight but only FROM AN ECONOMICAL POINT OF VIEW.
Therefore we must operate either in form to raise the  general W probability or, more likely,  to restrict at most the W appearance within the shortest periods of betting.

(Correct IMO.  However, most players fall prey to what so many attempt to sell or teach on the internet and over simplify the game with almost no teaching or detailing out the psych and decision making process so vague to so many.  As well, 'false positives', meaning, the bad effect winning has on even intelligent players causing them to forget everything and only focus on the larger wins that will make up for all their losses, etc.)  (Shorter and quicker is better, but has to be with meaning and substance with complete focus and extreme frame of mind regarding your risk capital, buy in and the purpose of that buy in)

Step #2

Math gurus and fkn bac pseudo experts abounding on internet will teach us that every bac bet is EV-

This is a total bullsh.it statement.
It could be true whether any resolved hand is totally independent from the previous one and, of course, if the game isn't finite (that is determined by a finite deck). 

For example, we know that sooner or later a 4 Player streak formed by no asymmetrical hands is a perfect EV=0 disposition (actually it could have a EV+ due to card distribution). We know that such P streak isn't the product of 0.4932 x 0.4932 x 0.4932 x 0.4932 probability.
The same is about a Banker 4 streak not forming one or more symmetrical hands in between.
In this case the probability is just 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5.
Various streaks at either side will come out at different times but itlr the number of different mix of as/s hands tend to be correspondent to the expected values.

(There are times when a player can clearly see the negativity as well as the positive sections within the game if he focuses the correct way with complete neutrality, which is extremely difficult to do on a continual playing basis.  Very hard.  But possible.  Over confident and counting those chickens before they are hatched, is the worst thing you can ever do at baccarat.)

Step #3

The most important thing in order to take advantage of what I've written so far is restricting at most our probability of success per each series of bets we wish to place.
In a given infinite succession of pseudo coin flips, trying to win one unit in two consecutive attempts by a kind of progressive wagering must invert to our favor the general 75% probability.
At baccarat this 75% W probability may come out or not, it's our duty to select the spots where such probability could be higher or lower.
Thus it's not about how we'll raise our bets.

Why 2 consecutive wagers are better than 2+ wagers or a succession of single bets followed by a kind of progression on next bets?

Easy answer.   
Variance acts by steps. Our bets must be winning on the very first bet or the second one. The rest will sink into the uncontrollable variance ocean. And such ocean may present several consecutive deep holes we can easily fall into.
Restarting to bet will be covered later about step #5. 

(Everyone eventually develops a different playing style and belief of the game.  Yours will win and mine will lose,  The other guys will always lose.  Yet another player might always win for a period of time using yet a 4th one.  Nothing can hold up on a continual basis.  Better than anything that even will score a 60% favorable chance to win, would be complete neutrality of the player and catch that 5% or 10% or 15% of the times that seem impossible to predict, guess ot get on the winning side.  I hope you understood that statement.  IMO, most of us tend to want to be in the over 50% winning section and avoid the losing wagers.  How about, attempting to see those sections that wipe everyone out or 'cut', etc.? )

Step #4

416 cards can arrange in numerous ways, yet it's more likely that what happened first won't be perfectly balanced by the next outcomes of the same shoe as the previous card distribution must affect subsequent card dispositions (not results).

(There are many answers in the details I outlined about 'Sections and Turning' Points, etc.  That will always apply within every shoe.)

Step #5

Besides strict statistical issues, everything comes in handy to ascertain what's the best course to take: if a given negative pattern had come out, odds are it will represent again on the same shoe.
Predominance, cards issues, overall other players' outcomes, turning points, Alrelax wrote a lot of interesting and valuable  topics about this.

A final note, a kind of gift: study the shoes where the very first pattern is a 3+ streak on any side (especially on B side). You'll find valuable spots to bet into the subsequent hands by a 99.9% accuracy.

(There is a very unique pattern/trend that usually does present itself after the first strong repeating section, no matter if that was B or P, and as well, no matter if it was 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 repeaters in a row after say 10 or 15 hands of 1s, 2s and 3s or any combination of those, such as 1s and 3s, then a 5 or 6 or 7 streak or more and than, at that point thereafter for a whole section is usually the hottest and best an experienced player can ever look at, at least the majority of times, all IMO and experience.)

TO RISE UP OUT OF WHATEVER YOU WERE TROUBLED BY and become what will make you 'right'.   That is what the player is pretty much always governed by, from my experience, witnessing and seeing every time I go to the casino with players I know very well or not.  Simply, the player just does not understand the psyche of gambling, winning, the effects and the consequences.  And there are countless ones. 

You fell into the game and although you won, you had no idea whatsoever what would eventually happen, always does.  "You give up your soul--the devil takes it, you have no option, none---zero".  You fail to realize it, but it happens and happens to so many in different ways, times and situations.  You justify your continuance of playing because the next session or your new information and realization as to what had previously happened, will cease.  Even if it was not negative and you won, you way of thinking was more and more, next plateau and next larger level.  You actually could not understand why so many lost as the game is really so easy.  Either way, your spiral began. 

Let's just pick it up from your losing point.  Okay, here goes.  Your turnaround is starting, a fresh new beginning to winning.    Your loyalties, your outlook and your morality have been stripped away.  You had no say-so and even if you did, you choose to continue your destructive play, because of your dreams and goals which you did not understand or realize how to bring about with the easy appearance and initial luck players have.  I will further expand upon this after the next two paragraphs.

A man named George Jung, whom was Pablo Escober's, cocaine trafficking import connection to the USA from Columbia said, "There is not a very wide gap between goodness and badness.  Who is to say what is really good and who is really bad?"   And, you want to know something, that statement applies to most people that gamble and get into trouble. 

Take it for what it is worth to yourself.  In gambling, generally, if you have not experienced it--your mind will not be able to digest it and even if you do, you generally will not believe what the more experienced players advise or plead you to adhere to.

What is always there, that almost none if any of the players saw in their first few years of playing, some for many years, was the monster lying on the horizon.  Total insanity!  And the monster does get around and has countless brothers and sisters in every place conceivable!  Like I said players do not and will not listen with an open mind and a mind that will allow them to learn, witness and merge the more experienced results and outcomes into their play.  Unlike the players other pursuits of whatever that might be, golfing, bowling, BBQ cooking, vehicle restoration, anything involving any kind of knowledge and skill.  They generally will listen, research, and tailor things that they willing seek out, been instructed and learned in most all other areas of their interests, except for gambling.  I have no real idea why except their own, stubbornness, ego and hardheadedness, that they refuse to believe or accept anything from anyone else in gambling. 

I have been thinking about this lately.  Especially, when I see a player start to really bang it out at baccarat.  Here is a typically player I saw the other night.  He wagers $500 on the Banker, presses it for $1,000.  Wins.  Cuts back to the Player with a $500 wager.  Pushes the $1,000 off to the side for locked up win money.  He bought in with $2,000.  Says he will stop with a $4,000 profit.  The next two hands he wins also with 2 Players, that match the 2 Bankers.  Then he cuts back to Banker and wagers once again.  Now he is up $2,500.  This is the turning point.  He is getting hyped and excited.  Now he is feeling good.  4 straight wins and the power starts to set in.  He really has not played that much and he is thoroughly convinced, that this is easy money and he found his new profession.  His mind is off in that magical and proverbial "LaLa" Land! 

That next wager is really the turning point to his session.  4 in a row won is not record setting, not rare, but a great start to either a great win or that classical lost buy-in session.  His face is lite up with all kinds of ideas and thoughts.  I can clearly see it.   He even says out loud, convinced in the deck cut, he sealed the deck in his fate with that magical cut of the cards a dozen hands ago.  He placed a $250 wager on the Banker for another double to happen, he announced.  Then the Player has a 1 and the Banker has a 7 and stands.  He announces once more, how his fate just came around and then the dealer pulls the Players 3rd card and out comes a 7.  His face droops pretty good, his mouth opens and then the cuss words come out and he is literally bewildered!  Amazed.  LOL. 

Now he announces once again, the Player was done and he knows the Banker will come back around and make another double.  He wagers $750 on the bank, very carefully and announcing what he is doing.  Almost everyone stops wagering and although they do not believe in what he is doing, the players just did not want to wager against him out of the old school way of playing with camaraderie, etc.  The Player comes out with a 6 and stands and the Banker has two face cards, Banker pulls another face card.  Once again, his face is in total amazement and he bangs the table with his fist.  Now he is down to about $1,500 win/locked up money if I recall and his buy in of $2,000 is in a separate chip stack.

He wagers another $750 on the Banker and almost everyone else is along with him.  He is not smiling and he is watching closely now.  Players have a 5 and the bank has a 5 also.  He is calling for a monkey or an 8 or a 9 so he will get that stop card and win or tie.  A 2 comes out and his face goes to amazement again.  Now, I and another can clearly see the Player getting stronger and stronger.  We say, "Why fight it and why keep wagering for the cut"?  He does not say anything.  Now he goes down to $250 once again and stays on the Banker wager.  Player has a natural 8 and the Banker has a 7.  He is really upset and getting more and more verbal.  Cussing the dealer, the casino and others for wagering against him. 

Now he takes the last of his win, the other $500 he had in that chip stack and places it on the Player.  And of course the Banker takes that hand with a natural over a low total for the Player.  He does what all other do, says how he knew it was Banker all along and should have just stayed on it with a larger wager.  Yeah, right.  This happens every night, never changes.  But they don't learn anything and everything happens. 

He has his $2,000 buy in left and regroups, very clearly.  With all the marking on the score card, all his pointing to the display board and all of his new thoughts.  Now he claims something about the Banker is going to match the Player with another 4 or 5 Bankers in a row, etc.  Of course the shoe goes to pure chop and just alternates back and forth for like 6 or 7 times.  He wins a couple and losses I think one more than he won.  Then he divides his remaining stack of chips into 2 wagers, I think he had $1,600 left.  He wagered the first one and lost and then same thing happened for his second wager in an attempt to come back.  He lost.

He runs to the ATM machine and buys back in.  He starts to win and then gets wiped out.  He repeats the same scenario once again.  He pretty much straight lost all his wagers until his last couple of hundred.  Then he makes a come back and get up to about $3,000.  He lost it all within less than 10 hands and started to go heavier and heavier and press every win.  Doubles up or nearly doubles up on every loss.  No matter what he did, he lost a few hands more than he won. 

Common Sense Nature Gets eroded!  Period.  In the casino as well as on the forum here.  No one likes it, wants it or takes it seriously in betting, wagering, casino theory, gambling, etc.  Translated, "it works sometimes and other times, does not".    And the magical answer that almost everyone is searching for, simply---does not exist for their repetitive questions asked each and every day.  "How do I beat the casino", or "How do I wager with an advantage", or "What is the correct trigger that will allow me to always win", etc., and everything else of a similar nature. 

Then things get posted with passion, twisted with passion, some personal and the rest commercial reasons seeking profit.  The commercial guys are the dangerous ones, twisting and turning what really happens or happened, for the sake of selling whatever they are seeking to sell.  The personal guys have no real reward for being here, discussing and holding civilized and real discussions.  The fakes, the trolls, the drama seekers, the scammers and the other people along those lines will ruin it for most all serious members not seeking to scam or sell.

For the 'real casino players and serious' members, the few with the passion and the motivation, the upsides of their actual casino gambling discussions are seldom even realized by the masses on the forums.  These types are among us, although not the majority, they are present.  But they are usually made fun of, overlooked, or what they say is dismissed as fallacy.  Things and people fade away because of those very reasons.

Initially, your assumption that we just don't get it, have you all wrong, and don't understand is charming, but tedious.  And real tedious at that!  After a while it gets tragic on your part. Why you would go off about casino properties cheating, casino hosts that don't care, marketing systems meant to screw the player, rigged games under scrutiny by state gaming agencies that would charge casino executives with criminal law violations in a heartbeat and many other things, but a fine example of what hasn't worked for you in the casino.

Since you consistently like to blame others for your gambling failure, I'll mention this: recently two representatives were involved in a fracas in the US Congress. One, a "typical" white guy congressman, was telling the black congresswoman that he knew more about prejudice than she ever would. Do you get the absurdity? Do you see how offensive that is to people that actually pride themselves on fairness and being neutral? 

That congressman and some of you guys have something in common - you don't really listen, it's all output. Remember a movie line recently, "You need to set your MotherF***er to receive."  I'd have to find the movie to get the context, but in my head, it sounds extremely spot-on and appropriate here.

Do you understand the phrase "the meaning is the message?" It means whatever your audience understands is really the message, even if it differs wildly from what you think you meant. Speaking up in public carries the reality that people will hear what they hear and it is rarely the same as what you say. When you avoid listening and show up telling us about what happened to you at the casino gambling and how you suddenly found out what you did wrong and how you will now turn everything around, does not  make it better, you already lost your audience, just like the congressman did. It's where they got the term "In LaLa Land.", or "Has No Idea Whatsoever", and "He is the Casino's New Best Friend", etc. 

Even here, while you acknowledge our intellect, you explain the most blatantly obvious things as if I or we, are just idiots and never gambled in our lives.  You then justify what you are going to do or did, by outlining a system, a plan, or explaining how we all have never seen 'such and such' appear at the baccarat table or another game, and it has always been there but you just recently discovered it. 

The thing is, simply, that you haven't listened to the people you are dictating to. That's not a misunderstanding; the actual events that keep repeating are evidence and proof of what went wrong with your plan and agenda. It's also not a "conviction" or anything. It's incredibly common and we put up with it all the time.  Always someone coming on offering to put up their money and buy tickets and pay expenses to get someone to partner up.  Yeah right.  Problem being, almost no one will ever listen in gambling ventures.  They probably do in most other things, golf lessons, bowling lessons, all kinds of hobby instructions, how to fix things, etc., but not gambling, their brains, ego's and everything else they are about will not allow them to. 

So you show up and tell us things that we already been through, tried, believed in and otherwise already burned through with great expense, trial and error!!  Good for you for knowing that we are marginalized in the casino world and baccarat or other table games, but telling us that as if you know more than we do, is insulting, and some of us take it quite personal as well.

Oh yeah, so many will also say and claim with great conviction, that it's other people's fault.  How about instead of the attempt to rebuild Rome, find terrorists before they strike by watching; Behind Enemy Lines or Seal Team 6 The Raid, or Call of Duty, and other movies of a similar nature, etc., you pick up we left off and forget being hard headed and all the great discoveries that you think exist that we already burned through.  Maybe then, we can really get down to business, as they say?

Care to step up your game? Care to show us your winnings?  Pictures?  Casino statements of Win/Loss?  Anything at all?  Offering, Posting, and Providing Details a bit more than, I done this or that or some chart you drew on your computer of the results?  Something tangible? 

IMO and experience, unlike any system module and program on a computer that will eventually win with unlimited bankroll, the real casino is not the same.  Coupled with the unforgiving and clouding real players inflict upon themselves in the wagering process when they lose.  Likewise, when they win, those same players ignore or forget upon what will eventually happen. 

I have posted details about positive progressions of 1-3-2-6 units, as well as a few other things, I believe one can call staking??  Staking to me, is the amount of my future bets dependent upon if I win or lose my current wager. 

A couple parlays at most and than pull down the winnings.  Always attempting to recoup as quick as possible my initial wager, no matter if i am winning or losing.  I do my best when I am gambling with the casinos money.  I have argued back and forth with many over the years about that very statement.  But there is always a risk for the player, no matter if you started out and lost/losing your wagers or winning.  As far as the grind with looking for 2 or 3 or 4 units, each day, that will always fail. 

You have to totally understand and control human nature.  It is no different in most all aspects of life, hobbies, business, etc.  Gambling is the same, but so many have no clue as to how human nature does and will effect your decisions. 

One huge problem that so many cannot understand or grasp the atmosphere and realization on forums, boards and the internet.

Which, IMO is:

Lots of people given lots of false input into various wagering topics.  That input is vital to those that read it with researching and application intentions, that possibly will not work or cannot work the way it was presented.

There are 2 extremely different atmospheres and content being presented.

1)  Talk.  Lounges and Courtyard style.

2)  Learning.  Actual class and detailed presentations and experience conveyed.

When there are one liners that are thrown at everything to derail, disrupt, challenge and upset, it will ruin and remove a whole lot of anything that is attempted to be actually brought forward.  Bringing things forward is a super productive positive way to learn and figure things out, IMO.  But the side kicks with other members that have no intention of anything positive is the root of evil and utter disruption.

Do any of you remember before the huge internet explosion.  What double sourcing and triple sourcing was in the media as well as material being used in schools, etc.? 

My little 6 year old actually impresses me to the max at times.  He can google, watch something and become familiar with things.  Great.  But there is no depth or real understanding to most of it.  He does what so many lazy adults do.  Watches a YouTube video and then convinces himself that he learned something or knows something.  But in all actuality he does not understand it.  Therefor, he cannot benefit from it and ask the how, why, and apply it to useful or productive learning and traits.  He hopefully will soon, but adults do the same as he does because of the atmosphere and the belief in what they just read, watched, etc., is correct, accurate and of course, the truth. 

Now we have Google, which can be fake, can be a directed link to something with absolute bad intentions and so often, directed to a single sourced, by proxy written article that is next to worthless.  Why am I bringing all this up?  Because it is the norm on how the highest majority of everyone wants everything right now, instant, free, proven and guaranteed, etc. 

But, this is really a whole separate topic that should be discussed and realized by us. 

How true.

Yes, he us certainly allowed to charge a fee, it's a private website for membership purposes and I don't have a problem with that whatsoever. 

I do have a problem with his attitude, his personality and the professionalism of the way he conducts his business and that's personal.   I know several people that have paid numerous sums of money and every one of them say they were not giving anything of value.   

Again it's subjective to how you handle knowledge, education and information, as well as applying it.  On the other hand, I know some of the members and there's one I have extreme problem with.  His history and how they conduct themselves as well as what I stated.   What I Know is facts and I kept it the facts alone.

I have stated the facts and the facts are correct.  Keith actually attempted to have me arrested and charged with a fictitious crime.

Hey, whatever, if I survived the numerous real Asian Triads of NYC, like the Flying Dragons, The BTK (Born To Kill) and the Green Dragons among the couple of other ones of the 80's and 90's, I can survive Keith.  LOL.

But he did and I will never forget that.  I actually attempted, through invitation to be a part of BTC, but his right hand people chastised and humiliated beyond reason.  As well, there is the one well known member there that was a very prominent right hand person to another defunct website Admin and very large short term bac player in Vegas whom lived on the east coast.

The list goes on, sorry. 

EDDIE TIPTPN/Computer Programming Crime Lottery Wins:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/investigations/2018/03/15/how-gaming-geek-checkered-past-pulled-off-biggest-lottery-scam-u-s-history/397657002/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal

The Tran Organization:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/real-life-oceans-11-agents-foiled-million-casino/story?id=16425553


https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/co-founder-casino-cheating-criminal-enterprise-sentenced-36-months-prison-targeting-casinos

Look up Eddie Tipton. IOWA State lottery, Multi State Lottery Agency.

He was a security consultant and computer programmer.

$25  Million dollars later he and all his cohorts are in state prison.

He was able to pick the 3 winning numbers on 3 days of every year in 5 different states.  Also wipe the computers, however he eventually made some mistakes and got greedy.

Huge case for over a decade,  proves if you only did it once, most likely you would have gotten away with it.  Even said by the prosecutors.  This case 100% correct. 

Very seldom, first time financial crimes are ever recognized as well,  their perpetrators caught.  However almost every one of them will eventually catch themselves.

So true.

Also. Something else comes to mind here!  The infamous Tran Gang with the tens of millions of win bac money in collusion with casino dealers,  the same thing, sheer greed!!!

You can Google, The Tran Organization and read the Wikipedia on them.  But the loss figure is really more like 15 to 20 million.  Rather than the documented 7 million.

As well. Legitimate baccarat winners.  It all sets in, except the criminality of what the above people did,  they give it all back, lose everything and become beat down by the very game that rewarded them with financial fruit.

Learn how to handle the game. The winning,  and Yourself. 

When a bunch of members, a few to 10, stick together and endorse each other with everything said, as well as the Admin backs it all up, almost any story can be written and perpetrated.  I talk the brutal honest truth with previous trip reports, pictures and everything else.  Jealously, over zealously and plain drama is an attention getter as well as a quick way to ruin things.l

Their details and wagering protocols are sketchy as well as partially disastrous, IMO and the opinion from my decades of playing baccarat.   Thanks, Glen.

Asym,

Yes, and I am not attempting to take anything away.  IMO, this is reality to a certain point.  I have written about it in several other threads, similar, a bit different, more detailed, etc., etc. 

Everything all over the internet is so theorized, so "bookish", so system/mechanical holy grail oriented, it make me laugh and puke at the same time.

The casino game, especially baccarat, is so player driven for its results, wins, losses, and everything in between, at times it has nothing to really do with the shoe presentments as far as wagering goes. 

Please read the following and comment, positively, negatively or otherwise. 

https://betselection.cc/general-discussion/fooled-by-realityfooled-by-desires/

About the forums and the transformation, interpretation and believability of the info written and presented, etc.:
https://betselection.cc/general-discussion/'there-is-no-truth-there-is-only-perception'-on-the-forums/

Relevance of info, test results, false positives, etc.:
https://betselection.cc/general-discussion/relevance-versus-perception-versus-reality/

My thoughts on getting sucked in and screwing yourself as most all players do, experienced or not:
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/seriously-baccarat-betselection-lets-talk-discuss-players-and-wagering/

Dealing with the how comes and the whys, etc.:
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/theoretical-vs-practical-reality-knowledge-in-gambling-baccarat/

'Probability', 'Variances' and most importantly, 'Dealing with our Ignorance':
https://betselection.cc/general-discussion/fooled-by-realityfooled-by-desires/msg64030/#msg64030

Asym,

You might have read those???  But it fits in with my many years of playing B&M at all levels and all types, as well as the rage of the internet and the chase for the holy grail, that does not exist, never did and never well, at least in mechanical systematic form, etc. 

Thanks, Glen. 

Right on track! 

Not to attempt to take anything away from you!  But, the direction, IMO, as a B&M player (Non-Admin/Mod, etc.) is that you are in reality and applying the real outcome of the games to the players! 

 Yes, what i have written about lately called,  getting sucked in, 

I will comment tomorrow,  but yes right track about perception, etc.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 12, 2018, 10:12:13 PM

our bac earnings had gotten a huge increase by additionally adopting the suggestions you have posted here.
And I'm talking very seriously.


as.


Define???  Explain??  thanks, Glen.