I have repeatedly witnessed this exact stupidity of wagering, more and more the past 2 years than ever in the past 30 or so.

Some of the players were doing so well with the shoe as well as the previous shoe.  Then they start losing and especially when it is all 1s and 2s and 3s, they begin that relentless drive with a negative progression repeatedly on the opposite side.  Does not matter if it is player or banker on a run, they will wager against it.  Then 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 repeatedly come out and they all get wiped out, every single one of them. 

Years ago, almost never seen that kind of wagering, but now, all the time.  Today, I see more great patterns and trends so obvious and most of the people playing will not wager with the shoe.  Total disarray in their wagering and beliefs.

A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.

Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.

I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.

What is an EDGE?  Can you actually get an EDGE?  To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.

The above is a quote from the OP.  Yes, you are absolutely correct about wins and losses.  You can never be on all sides with an Edge.  It is impossible, so--IMO, why attempt to do that.  However, trying it leaves room to improve your knowledge of reality the game produces.  Problem is, most of us are not in reality and refuse to see it. 

It is also like someone saying, that restaurant specializes in seafood and is well known for having the best seafood in town.  There is no way they could have a great Asian dish, it is impossible.  But, maybe they really do?  Maybe their sole Asian dish is horrible.  Maybe is great on the days a certain chef is working and off on the other days when that chef is not present?   

Same in baccarat.  But there is no edge that can give you consistent wins on anything that will redundantly appear.

People attempt to convert computer statistics to live gaming and those statistics were not derived from the amount of hands that you will be playing in front of.   

The real edges come from other avenues within the game of baccarat.  I don't know about the game of roulette, perhaps so or not?  But in baccarat the edges are not definable by mathematical numbers.  Disclosure:  IMO.

But there are edges. 

Quote from: Bally6354 on March 02, 2019, 11:13:02 PM
Flat betting is my personal preference. On saying that, I will use a positive progression if a section of the shoe looks like it's heading for a run of a streak/chop or what I would define as a 'staggered' chop. Obviously nobody knows what's coming out beforehand, but you do need to have something in your armoury which can identify the switches quickly if you want to profit from flat betting. It's no good losing a few units at the end of one section just to possibly win one unit on the next few decisions before another couple of losses if you hope to be successful. Asym is right in one respect! You better know your 'first bet' is going to be a winning one the majority of the time because then you have some wiggle room.

Simply put, good logic in many ways. 

Interpretation plays a huge part of baccarat, IMO. 

Think, Know, Act on Gut, Cut out False and No Good Influences.

There most definitely is a way to get ahead by flat betting.

Just almost all players, at least those in all the B&M's I go to and have ever been at, main floor bac and high limit bac, I would have to say an unofficial 98 out of 100 will never stop with a few units.

Once again, I have written extensively, IMO about psych and reality of bac gaming and how to get the best chance of gathering up some sizable wins, capitalizing on groups, sections and opportunities, etc.  I have experienced almost a turn around in leaving the table with a profit in sizable amounts versus that of a few units.

But, yes.  Flat betting can work the same as anything else with less risk, but less chance to win larger amounts.

Time is the players enemy #1.  Everything falls behind the time factor.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 18, 2019, 02:44:56 AM
Imo to win at baccarat itlr, our plan must be considered in cycles adhering at most by taking into account just two steps:

1-  winning the first hand wagered is of outmost importance;
2- winning the second hand whether the first was lost.

This simple two step wagers plan considered by cycles must have each a higher 75% of success.

When it happens to be wrong at both opportunities, we need to be very careful to place more bets as strong negative variance is going to come out more often than we think.
Thus waiting to get a fictional positive outcome is not sufficient to restart the betting.

The reason is that baccarat is very similar to a coin flip endless proposition, therefore WW, WL, LW and LL sequences are presenting whimsically but itlr they'll be equal.

We cannot guess the lenght of the streaks, therefore we should simplify the problem by considering columns as singled or streaky (any streak).
It doesn't matter what strategy we like to adopt, what really counts is whether how many times we'll win the first or the second hand (really or fictionally), then classifying the results.

Since any bac shoe is a finite limited model, we know that more often than not a losing series won't be balanced by a perfect counterpart and the same is true taken in the opposite direction.

I mean that some shoes cannot be played at all as we do not want to find us in the position to guess the opposite of what our plan is dictating.

In a word, we'll be in a far better shape not playing certain shoes not fitting our plan at the start than trying to follow the actual shoe or, even worse, trying to hope to get balanced outcomes that have no room to show up.

Professional players like to bet a lot on very few spots and they never want to chase previous losses and it's not a coincidence that they'll stop the betting after two consecutive losses.

as.

You are so correct in so many ways.  Great summation, but as I have problem also---is explaining it in detail so all understand.  Just too much.

BTW, the first two wagers or three in fact are almost always vital to the real-serious player, unless you are grinding small min amounts of wagers of course.

Here is something I found from my Blog that I believe fits in here well, IMO:

"And, in my book--you are NOT going to accomplish that by what the highest majority of players say here on this board as well as the other message boards.  No possible physical way!  I have truly been there and done that thousands and thousands of times.  You know, baccarat is strange--extremely strange because  tonight you can win or lose by doing same exact thing you did last time.  Baccarat is NOT like cooking--where there is a certain and a proven way to prepare a dish.  It doesn't change--unless you the chef changes it.   You have a perfect recipe and you repeat it, it will come out the exact same every time.  Same thing with, troubleshooting a motor vehicle.  Same equipment, same procedure, same results doing the same thing.  You know, baccarat is more like hunting.  Exactly.  Different course, different outcomes, different chases, different rewards, different amount of success and different amounts of failure.  Same game!  Also, two hunters can start at the same line with the same equipment, and finish with drastically different results at the end of the hunt session.  Just like the game of baccarat.  It is how we, myself and you and them--handle ourselves, our money--our thought process and our visions-desires-wants--our realization and how each accept the losses or the wins within each shoe and session we play."

I read this a few minuets ago after waking up from my nap on the couch, don't we all do that before we finally go to sleep?

Fantastic, real, explains all the boards and all the people, real quick.  Again, LOL!   

I had a PM and I was actually congratulated on this past article I wrote.  LOL.  But I decided to bump it.  It is funny with the comment by Jimske how this board is dead, correct.  But also how hundreds come on to read and I watch them and run IP addresses and LOL, funny who lots of them are, LOL!  But anyways, lots of guests and few post.  Again, LOL............................

Well, here we are, another Superbowl.  2019.

First off, I detest New England 100%.  I am from the Northeast, NYC/New Jersey born NYC and most of my life in the area or in NYC and New Jersey.  I am a Jets, Eagles and Vikings fan for the longest. 

I used to be a heavy NFL and Collage football bettor.  Did great for the longest time and stopped it all when I left New Jersey 2002 for the Midwest.

I placed on NFL wager this season a couple of weeks ago in New England and made it with the point spread, almost did not, just squeezed by.  If they were the favorites, I would have lost the wager. 

Everyone I talk to about the Superbowl is saying New England will never win.  I disagree.  Because Brady always the highest majority of the time is spot the frick on!  He is totally the go to with the know how and does stuff that is expected but the other team is counting on him to chicken out.  IMO.

My buddy, the retired NYC cop out here near me, just took his whole year of baccarat winnings, about $20,000.00 and put it all on New England as well.  I am wagering New England, not the over-under or anything else.  I am not putting life changing sums or anything of the like.

I do wholeheartedly believe that the bookies convince the press what to say and how to say it.  The last article I read last night was that it is a no brainer and the Rams will score high and walk away with it.

Seriously?  IMO and IMO only, this will be a close match, New England will win and the books want everyone to go high and with the Rams, because that most likely will not happen. 

As we all know in sports, it is not always the most talented or experienced or the best that does win.  There are numerous factors, strategy and team work that influences and changes the game and the outcome, each time.  And that is the problem with picking the winners beforehand.

Had to post this, what the heck?

Being raised in South Florida during the Miami Vice Days as it was labeled, I got a quick out of this building the other day here in the Midwest!

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 29, 2019, 03:21:23 AM
High stakes players willing to hear strategic suggestions and giving the mentor a cut on their profits simply want to get more winning hands than losing ones.
They do not give a fk about progressions, stop losses or MM issues.
They mainly like to adopt a wise flat betting strategy as they know that at worst they won't lose more than math expected (minus the huge comps they are entitled to get or deals on losses made with the casino).
A luxury almost no one bac player in the world would think about.

Thus only a proper bet selection might have the best of the game by 1 trillion of certainty.

There's no way a math disadvantage could be overcome by "human" countermeasures like MM, stop losses and progressions: such are just human illusory worthless tools.

If our plan is properly set up, the more we'll play the more we'll win.

Period.

as. 

You are pretty spot on, bit they add enormously to the visualize and the illusion players convince themselves of, experienced or inexperienced, most all use those things like MM, Progressions and all the rest as justifications and way outs, they just look at them the wrong way IMO.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 09:16:23 PM

No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.

Excellent. Reality. Realization. Correct Mark.

I'm a little unintelligent about following technology and relationship from it in gambling, you guys know my position.  And I'm not being a wise-behind and I'm not insinuating any type of derogatory statement here Mark.

How does one know when they sit down at the table where they fit in, in those type of charts?  Such as when you look at a weather chart with the time day you know at 11am what temperature or snowfall or precipitation or Sunshine it is going to be by the estimated published rate and you compare that to the time of day it currently is. I understand that, but how do you do that with a gambling chart?

You are both correct in many ways.  Problem with reading, researching, implementing, and all that is we each interpret and use it all in different ways the author was or we merge it all along with other things that have worked or not performed well for each of us in our own past experiences. 

Hence, mixing a chemical that should not be mixed with another and all that.  Same basis for problems.

I have spent months working on 5 in depth articles relating to actual play and the reasons why, just most all players never see past the score board at stuff like 1's and 2's are more frequent than everything else type of strategies, and like Jimske points out, most no one cares, believes or has interest in reading much more than a paragraph or two.  LOL, but very true. 

Possibly that is why Jay Silva and people like that can take online republished bac games, voice over and talk a carnival type of showmanship and sell intangible systems making a fortune.  Etc., Etc., etc.

Major problem #1 in player at baccarat is, almost no one understands visualization and how it effects you with the game.  As well as false positives running a close 2nd.  All IMO and unproven and non-certified and undocumented 35 years plus of playing in casinos.

H money returns tomorrow I'll write about what happened last night need to get some sleep I will write tomorrow like I said H money returns.............

Paid membership is the serious people I don't care if it's $10 a month or $100 a month or $1,000 a month!!  I belong to many Technical and professional organizations that they all,  every single one of them charges money for computer access journals, phone consultations, chat assistance and this is all in technical non-gambling stuff and those are the real people in the respective field, anything else does not work.

I'm sorry, in my own opinion