"An Edge Without A Physical Bias" (??)  << The Term Quoted from: Nickmsi

My Thoughts, As Follows:

That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem.  Thanks, Glen.

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more. 

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.   Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case. It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following: "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system".  That sentence holds true to the hundredth power in any casino, police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigation, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path. 

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their "rewards", for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the "fruits of your desires", sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good. 

'Gamblers have a stronger misperception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it'.  Please understand the words, Misperception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate) they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misperception. ("A wrong or incorrect understanding or interpretation"). I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time.   

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect.  Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc. 

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so' math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more the play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going. 

Then what happens?  Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants. 

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of wanna-be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day. 

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the "Flip of the Switch".  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, "all in" wager, or the other one, "all or nothing", types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe.  Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, "I can outsmart the system" type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke. 

What is the, "Flip of the Switch"?

"Flip of the Switch", is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, "Flip of the Switch".  In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The other of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game. 

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, "Flipping of your Switch", when you're in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is no the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play. Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision and a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Sections and turning points in my opinion are related to bias identification.

Naturally some of my sections and turning points, how I described them are related to baccarat and not what you specifically are seeking. But I do believe you can use the general basis of what I refer to with different directions etc.

How frequent are the changes, that is the answer no one knows but to define or see a section, will put you way ahead of the players that cannot. That's the point I was trying to bring forward to you when I mentioned sections and turning points. Thanks.

You know, we went to the casino the other night.  Before we went, we ate at my buddy's house.

Eggs, Salmon, Blueberries, Bananas, Greens w/Spinach in the eggs also.  We also sliced up red peppers.  Bottom line, we did our home work.  We ate that!  We try.  Sure we love pasta and sauce and garlic breads and sausages, all that too!  But we eat all that after we are done gambling, when we are back home.

We just are tired of the days of Red Bull, coffee and greasy burgers and breads, etc.  It does make a difference. 

When you are at the baccarat table and you are rubbing your eyes, your brain is pounding, you can't even remember what you bought in for or what your M.M.S. is, etc.  When you can't focus and you miss the no ties, hand 45, no F-7's, only 1 Panda out there, no 3 card 8/9's yet, and numerous other things, something is wrong! 

As in anything else, learn, research, invent something that might just help you, instead of hurt  you or hamper yourself accomplish something.

https://www.health.com/food/10-foods-that-boost-concentration

I mentioned red peppers.  Here is something about those.  We have other foods, but I am just trying to show you to get on the right path, learn the curves, the junctions and the dead ends.  Doesn't really cost anything.  IMO!

"Red bell peppers boost your immune system due to high vitamin A, C and antioxidant properties, including beta carotene, which helps maintain healthy skin and vision. In fact, these mighty red vegetables contain 1.5 times more vitamin C, 8 times more vitamin A and 11 times more beta carotene than green bell peppers.Jun 7, 2012" 

Quote from: Sputnik on July 14, 2018, 06:10:12 PM
Hello Alrelax, what does it mean and how to use "section/turning points" to your efforts?
If you have time can you explain more in detail?

Many Thanks

https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/sections-and-turning-points/

Suggestion:  Try adding 'sections/turning points' to your efforts. 

Counter Measures?


If you are looking for a quick magical sure-fire fix to win quick money, keep looking.  However, if you are a true bank-roll holder with a couple of weekly play sessions with earmarked 'buy-ins' and attempting to win some money, read on.  But foremost I have to say, even though I almost did not, Mark/Gizmotron made me sit down and put into some kind of definition, 'what it takes to win' and 'what my outlook is on gambling'.  That is, "Calculated Deduction", plain and simple.  When I start to compile the wins at the casino table, with my dedicated buy-in wagers, it is nice and great--all at the same time.  I am risking, without a few unit stop-loss which I am dead-set against, to win and get into the double to triple the buy-in status and then employ my money management system and my side-parlay wagering attempts.  If I don't get to that point, I get wiped out of my buy-in amount.  I refuse to grind, I have other ways to make more cash with a career and a business, rather than driving and risking money each day to the casinos in the hope to sustain.   I don't have to win to go on, while others do.  Meaning, I also make money each and every week for the basics and the long term matters from outside casino sources.  Equally, while at the table, each wager is not based on hitting the 'lottery' as I call it, to continue wagering and actually having a chance to win the session.  That is the huge difference in the frame-of-mind and my focus/vision for what is happening and about to happen.

First of all, let me define hitting the lottery and actually having a chance to win the session.  For me, those are two very different things.  Hitting the lottery is a far-flung chance that might happen, but chances are, will not.  And when it does it fuels the wrong paths for yourself to continue play or worse yet, reinforces your play style with no advantage to really win and keep winning.  I am not talking about a life changing amount that the player will receive, I am talking about giving much larger amounts to the casino than you ever take away, at least on a consistent basis.  Here let me explain.

Enter a female named Amy.  She entered the world of baccarat about a year ago.  She quickly won some cash.  She was convinced that baccarat was the pot-of-gold at the proverbial end of the rainbow.  No doubt.  When she sat down at the table, she was sheer energy.  Nothing but. 

Amy eventually reduced herself to wagering on numerous or all of the side wagers at baccarat with numerous ones from 25 to 1, 40 to 1, 50 to 1, 80 to 1 and 200 to 1 payouts.  And she did it repetitively and consistently, 30 to 40 hands out of 50 or so a shoe, most every shoe she would play.  Hitting several at once is larger amounts of money, not life changing, but tens of thousands for only hundreds out there.  It happens and it happened often.  Not consistently.  But, when you lay $50.00 out there on a 40 to 1 on 4 spots and win $8,000.00 for the $200.00 you had placed on it, 2 or 3 times in shoe, it is another level of play.  Same thing with $10.00 on a 200 to 1 with $40.00 laid out on it and $8,000.00 is thrown at you for that one. Having no plan, no realization, no recognition of how or when or what happened, will lead the player to disaster every time.  When the player can figure out the things I wrote about here and realize where the path is and what the curves and junctions mean, within those paths, the player is taking the knowledge and the experience and using it in a 100% pro-active and informational source that will benefit the player if he can only truly understand "Fooled by Reality" and "Fooled by His Own Desire".

Amy did very well many sessions and other session, disaster and then the chasing started.  When you have 3 to 5 Fortune 7's within a few shoes and then you go 7 shoes with maybe 1 or 2 Fortune 7's collectively, it hurts and hurts big.  When you hit 3 three card 8/9's within a shoe and then cannot hit one in 5 or 6 shoes, same thing.  The story goes on, but one day I was talking with Amy and she told me, with a tear in her eye, what she was into the casino for, attempting to get a few good wins where she could recoup her money.  It was not pretty, not pretty at all. 

Amy had no M.M.S. and no system to allow her to wager those kinds of bets with previous win money and her "non-buy in" risk capital, etc.  That was really her downfall, not so much the type of wagering she was doing.  She was governed by nothing and all the wins did was transport her to a false reality and she could not remove herself from being there, once she was there.

Read this, please! It is so spot-on and applies here as well as many other things.
(When you understand the following, you are truly on the right path, I promise you).

The parable (If you don't read this, you will never understand what you are up against attempting to gain knowledge-insight-wisdom-or tips from others):

"The earliest versions of the parable of blind men and elephant are found in Buddhist, Hindu and Jain texts, as they discuss the limits of perception and the importance of complete context. The parable has several Indian variations, but broadly goes as follows:

A group of blind men heard that a strange animal, called an elephant, had been brought to the town, but none of them were aware of its shape and form. Out of curiosity, they said: "We must inspect and know it by touch, of which we are capable". So, they sought it out, and when they found it they groped about it. In the case of the first person, whose hand landed on the trunk, said "This being is like a thick snake". For another one whose hand reached its ear, it seemed like a kind of fan. As for another person, whose hand was upon its leg, said, the elephant is a pillar like a tree-trunk. The blind man who placed his hand upon its side said, "Elephant is a wall". Another who felt its tail, described it as a rope. The last felt its tusk, stating the elephant is that which is hard, smooth and like a spear.

In some versions, the blind men then discover their disagreements, suspect the others to be not telling the truth and come to blows. The stories also differ primarily in how the elephant's body parts are described, how violent the conflict becomes and how (or if) the conflict among the men and their perspectives is resolved. In some versions, they stop talking, start listening and collaborate to "see" the full elephant. In another, a sighted man enters the parable and describes the entire elephant from various perspectives; the blind men then learn that they were all partially correct and partially wrong. While one's subjective experience is true, it may not be the totality of truth.

The parable has been used to illustrate a range of truths and fallacies; broadly, the parable implies that one's subjective experience can be true, but that such experience is inherently limited by its failure to account for other truths or a totality of truth. At various times the parable has provided insight into the relativism, opaqueness or inexpressible nature of truth, the behavior of experts in fields where there is a deficit or inaccessibility of information, the need for communication, and respect for different perspectives."

For those of you, that want to read more about this, here is the Wiki link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant

Pressure.  All under the realm of recognition. 

Be a player that does not beat himself.

Be careful and you must avoid the "TILT".   By far the worst thing that you face at the baccarat table: 

Patience, Discipline, Maintain complete control inside of yourself.

Don't get to the point, where you "have to" bet and "hurry up" to win or go all in for a final determination of your sessions wagering.  If you do either, you are out of control and you will wind up beating yourself each and every session.  I know many will not agree and those that do not, IMO--will have very limited experience.  Most likely less than a good solid 10-15 years of play. 

The number one cause for bringing pressure to a player during gambling is, negative events repeatedly happening.  The usual reaction is to wager bigger and quickly recover.  Getting whole and starting fresh again.  Over betting will also become your worst enemy and real quick.  Actually if you engage in any of those, you commit baccarat suicide, plain and simple. 

One more real prevalent event happens at baccarat.  The "Should Be", but it is the "Should Be" that will help save you or make you money, all in your thoughts that will always distract you or throw you off your guard.  When the "Should Be's" come about, IMO, you need to govern yourself into the no-bet-option mode.  At least until the shoe and  yourself, are in-tune with each other. 

Wagering for the "Might Occur Sooner or Later".  Disaster!  If you reduce your goal or attempted hits to that one, you will always give it all back chasing additional ones to get even or win the session.  Always.  You can't control it to start with, but when it sets in, you can take care of it and recognize it has surfaced.  Then you have to back off. 

When it comes, your bet side/wagers, does not matter.  You can't bully the casino into changing the decisions coming out of the shoe and into the flow.  Stop thinking you can, because in sheer reality, you cannot. 

Wait for the point that coincides with your confidence plays.  The path that you can jump on and play the game in a near 100% positive manner, without the feeling in the pit of your stomach.  You know exactly what I am talking about, stop denying it.  If you can't do that, you can't win with a frame-of-mind, which will allow you to recognize what just happened or more importantly, what will happen or what possibly  will happen.  This is a key deciding factor of yourself wagering on a series of wagers that will allow yourself to win, "Sections of Opportunity" that will present themselves if you are able to identify them.  They do frequently come, the reason you can't see them, is because you are looking to base your wagers on math and statistical data that has not been decided yet, for the game you are involved in.

You can't "Wish It" away, you can't "Big Bet" it away and you certainly can't "Bully It" away.   Those players that do those things and believe in them, fall into the first posting on this thread about, "Fooled by Reality--Fooled by Desires, What is so sad, is that we really just fool ourselves."  

Be extra careful of the personal conflicts at this point.  With all the above and maybe more in your own personal findings that you need to stay conscious of, betting against and betting with other people is a real dangerous subconscious practice.   We have all done it, no need to deny it.  Betting against and they will most times, win.  Betting with and they will at most times, lose.  It works once in a while and that is the problem, but not many every truly figure it out.

Camaraderie is one thing and difficult to understand.  Revenge and/or "I will show you" or using it as a tactic that "should work", are entirely different things that should not be used.  It is a baccarat syndrome and I call it, "Congrats, you just f**ked yourself syndrome", it will send you down the wrong road, almost every time.

Concentration.   Ultimately to maintain your vision, plans and focus.  Not easy at all while gambling at baccarat.  I have written a bit about all this.  But here it is in a nutshell.   Most of the players do not even know what they are concentrating on if you were to ask them, and you got an honest answer.  Find what you need to concentrate on and then do just that.  Here is what I concentrate on and how I do it, or at least attempt to.

Money Management System:  Mine is normally implemented after I double or triple the buy-in amount.  If I can't do that, I continue to risk the capital I bought to the session and then begin to weigh other factors as to how long I should attempt to accomplish something.  Let's say it was positive.  I then move to my M.M.S. 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd.    Alongside of that, I set aside certain flat bet wins to be converted into my, 1 + 4 Side Parlay Wagers.   I want to say once again, I do not believe in a subscription to flat betting, positive or negative recovery progressions on any type of a mechanical pre-planned scheduled whatsoever.  Never ever.  I simply attempt to win more when I am winning without being scared, come back when I am down, and after so many attempts to win, without being successful past pushing back-and-forth, that is it.  The thing that actually allowed myself to get the largest handle on, the best recognition of playing while I am playing, and the ability to wager non-scared or continue to win without buy-in risk, is the use of the 1/3rd M.M.S. and my 1 + 4 Side Parlay Wagering set-aside, by far and large!

Here is my (1 + 4 Side Parlay Wager) and what it does for me.  Say I won a $300.00 wager for example.  I will earmark that for 4 attempts to win $2,400.00.  It is pure win money.  It does not affect my buy-in.  I would consider that a great win for the risked capital.  Out of the $300.00, I would attempt four times my (1 + 4's).  First bet, $75.  If successful 1st parlay, $150.  If successful, 2nd parlay $300.  If successful 3rd parlay, $600.  If successful, 4th parlay, $1,200.00.  Possible end pull down would have been, $2,400.00.  Say I won a Fortune 7 with a quarter out there on it.  I might earmark $500.00 for this and put $500.00 in my pocket from the pay-off, never to be seen again on the table for the session, etc.  Then instead of the $75, it would read like this:  4 attempts of $125.00.  As follows:  $250.00/$500.00/$1000.00/$2,000.00.   Possible end pull down, $4,000.00.

Think-----Develop-----Plan-----Implement-----Sustain-----Recognize & Control.....

But, the bottom line is, without concentration, vision, focus, and all the other intangible and factors that influence (and generally will control you), it is nearly impossible to sit down and fall oblivious to everything I write about, wager a whole lots of hands and continually win.  At least, win more than you lose on a consistent basis. 

And stop the energy drinks, the diet of greasy and junk food all day before the casino, coffee and soda only, etc.  All you are doing is compounding your failure to concentrate.   I really do believe that.  Although there is no quick fix for what I just said, you better realize that playing baccarat and attempting to stay whole and win nice payouts, is no different than being able to physically stay in shape if say you are a concrete worker or a construction laborer.  Eating the wrong diet will only cause or increase your "jitters", heart racing, fatigue and your ability to really focus the way you need to. 

Your Craft & the 2 other most important things to recognize.

YOUR CRAFT: Knowledge and experience that only guides you partially at the instant time.  (BTW--The rest is derived from and will come from, your psyche, your emotions, your gut, and many other intangibles that I have written about, that you better recognize and control somehow).

EXTERNAL:  On stage or within the crowd.  The influential that will influence you and become actual reasons your wagering was decided outside Your Craft's knowledge and experience. 

INTERNAL:   Systems, body, mind thinking process and what they lead to.

Your goal and path needs to be the conscious recognition of reality that will benefit you at the baccarat table.  It is the most confusing and hard to find intangible that there is, IMO.

Suspension of Reality As It Appears and to Actually Stay in Your Own Reality That Matters At The Baccarat Table.  That is your goal or should I say, the goal of a successful player?

What am I talking about?  If you can quickly understand "Suspension of Disbelief", then you can understand what I term, "Suspension of Reality", as I mention in the sentence above.  Please read along.  This is what has really helped me in the game of baccarat, and I seriously mean that!  If you walk into a book store and purchase a book by Stephen King, bring it home, set up a table on the patio and prepare to read the book over several days, but you have the belief you are about to embark on some multi day worthless effort to understand what a fictional writer spend years to perfect while he was only after a pay-day and for the ultimate con of selling a totally worthless manuscript to a publishing house.  Furthermore, that publishing house actually committed the second con, by hyping a worthless work of fiction that only ripped off your $30.00 along with several days of your valuable time, and so on and so forth.  Versus, I am going to embark on a few day journey through the eyes of a master of thrilling stories that could have possibly happened somewhere, sometime to some people and I am going to completely be non-combative to the presentments the author paints and describes, because I naturally have never encountered those but I will transport myself to the premises which might also lend to my own personal engagement and perhaps, the placement of my very own thoughts, ideas, feelings, emotions and feeling I am actually experiencing living within Derry, Maine.  Or, perhaps I can apply all of what I just said, when I go to the movies with my little boy and I will be able to picture myself just north of Tanzania, which would be in Wakanda, looking around for the Black Panther.  In reality, but actually in a suspended state of belief that might just transport me to a place I would never see or experience for the price I paid for the book or the movie ticket, etc. 

With that said, I actually use the "Suspension of Disbelief" when I am at the baccarat table.  It allows me or at least, helps to allow myself to believe what is not supposed to happen or should I say, the casino does not want to happen when you feel it or are just wagering for it to happen or continue to happen.  But, in order to do that, I find myself with two distinct and confusing agendas, the real/reality and what is happening, as well as the textbook, what everyone says or is supposed to happen. 

(I hope this supplements the original post I started this thread with.  These notes are from my actual positive and negative experiences along with what I realized is my proper and more profitable way to play when I am at the baccarat table.  What has led me to very nice wins and disastrous losses of all types.)

"I just don't see how people can avoid making the mistakes. It's like they have to go thru that first."

I really do think so as well.  People truly cannot avoid making the mistakes and if they do make the mistakes and they don't recognize it they getting deeper and deeper. Just like my buddy H Money did and he's well over $100,000 of Blood Sweat and Tears retirement money or put aside emergency money gone, that he could have controlled.  He was in over his head and did not recognize it and he wouldn't listen to anybody. That's the problem especially when it's easy come easy go and it's the desire and it has nothing to do with what you know or your knowledge or your experience, I hope you understand what I'm saying.

The problem almost all of us have in gambling, is that those 'problems' we have, we fail to recognize and maintain them in the forefront 100% of the time, even when we do/have recognized them and discovered them.  Compounding the matter, is that desire, greed, need to recoup, etc., whatever you want to label it.  That will usually overpower the textbook, the knowledge, the experience, etc., etc., at least in gaming.  In other things, such as engineering, science and basic business without a crowd-hype-etc., yes.  But not gambling.  That is what I discovered, found and am attempting to convey here.

Quote from: Lungyeh on July 13, 2018, 04:28:49 AM
Glen, I really admire your passion for the game and the time taken to share your experience with all of us. To all intents and purposes I would say what you have written applies aptly to the majority. I think given the diversity of the human populace, it is my humble suggestion that perhaps there is a tiny percentage of people who sees the game differently, are able to control their emotions differently and find it easy to deal with the many issues and problems you have correctly written about. But by and large, I agree with your eloquently presented articles.

Just like there are the minority of people who can be a Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckenberg, Bill Gates or Jack Ma

And you are pretty well spot-on with the minority.  Actually, what is sad, is the way the game literally and physically changed since right around 2000, with the intro of Midi/Macau style and the virtual elimination of the big-table.  That was pretty much 95% in favor of the casino, IMO and that of countless others. 

Fooled by Reality--Fooled by Desires

What is so sad, is that we really just fool ourselves. 

Be careful what you fail to check at the doors, as you walk through the entrance of the casino!  I have written about it before and specifically, I am talking about consciousness and reality.  I am not talking about being awake and alert, I am talking about remembering, being 100% conscious of and putting your knowledge and experience right there in front of you, recognizing them and paying extreme attention to them while you are playing.  Not an easy task.

The highest majority of the players sit down at the casino table, buy-in and then, 'game-on'.  Not much else really happens until the player begins to lose.  Then the emotional and the reactions come about.  Rather than being constantly pro-active, they become reactive to their deluded minds.  Sheer reactions to attempt damage control, getting even, recouping previous losses, trying to place themselves in another player's frame-of-mind and virtually everything except, playing the game the way it should be played. 

Problem being, as I see it, is that there are two different forms of, 'Probability', 'Variances' and most importantly, 'Dealing with our Ignorance'.  First of all, the highest majority of all players enter a new session with an attitude and belief that they have been there, done that and although handled too many sessions the, 'wrong way', they suddenly convince themselves that everything has changed and really nothing at all has.  When they win, they get more obnoxious, more de-tuned and more self-righteous than ever before.  Because they have all convinced themselves they are finally on the right track and that special time has come.  When really nothing at all did, they just failed to allow themselves to deal with their own ignorance.  They also coupled that with locking themselves into uncertainty failing to actually apply themselves to what is about to happen. 

Whatever you want to entitle the upcoming shoe presentments, 'Variance', 'Results', 'Randomness', etc., it will happen.  It does not matter one bit what side you are wagering on, what side you did not wager on or in fact, if you sat out and did not wager at all.  It will happen.  That is when the damage occurs the highest majority of the time.  Say a player believed what he read on a gambling message board or in his, 'elite pay-per-month internet club' of professional baccarat players that it is wiser to wager on 1's and 2's because they happen the most rather than streaks, patterns, trends and other presentments that also happen.  So here this player bought in with several thousand dollars and got into a wagering war with himself of going for 1's and 2's at the baccarat table.  Just about the same time he was doing that, the shoe presented 2 long streaks of say 8 to 12 Bankers in a row, followed by the same amount of Players in a row as well.  The person repeatedly wagered for the, 'cut' because of the proven statistical odds (The probability) that what just happened, should not have happened at all.  But it did.  And, it could have been one of several other shoe presentments such as, 1's and 4's, 2's and 6's followed by 3's and 5's with one long streak.  Countless other presentments that do come about. 

The damage happens when that player has just lost a straight $1,700.00 and has $300.00 remaining of his buy-in.  His mind is clouded, his vision is blurred and his frame-of-mind is extremely dangerous.  Now, he observed a player that caught the highest amount of the past 20 or so hands and won well over $10,000.00 with just a few hundred on the table, when he sat down.  That other person says something like, "Now the cut is coming, it has to because it was too strong", all the while pointing at the score board.  So, you are down the $1,700.00 or so, the guy that just won what you desired to and knew you could, is speaking and you are gullible.   Here is what you really do not realize, here is what really happens with 'Probability' and the computation of the odds of shoe presentments coming about in baccarat.   Probability is not a computation of the odds of making winning and losing hands based upon what has happened or based upon what has not happened.  It is actually, accepting the lack of certainty of your knowledge and dealing with the reality of your ignorance.  In other words, harsh and real words--you beat yourself, you talked yourself out of wagering what would have won.  Simple and done.  Of course, that is like saying you are unhygienic and physically unattractive and unpleasant to be around because you are simply gross.  But our brains will not allow us to really do that, even if it was factual and 100% true. 

Here, let me explain where I am coming from.  Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability and variance really never continually presents itself as a problem or something that constantly has to be figured out.  Yet, within a casino, it always does, 100% of the times we play.  Here is where it is complicated on one hand and yet, not really so.  IMO, there are really two areas that have to be realized and addressed.  1)  Randomness and Non-Randomness, and 2) Certainty and Uncertainty.  This is where 100 gamblers will have 99 varying methods to decipher, understand and convince themselves that they are on the right track and will soon be on 'easy-street'. 

Simply, 'randomness' is what the shoe will present, or the dice or the slot machine wheels, or anything else within a casino.  Randomness is not in any way purely mathematical, neither is non-randomness.  If you view randomness and non-randomness as skepticism, rather than attempting to apply and decipher it down to micro-managing levels mathematical interpretations, you will be far better off.  As well, 'probability'.  It is not in any way purely an engineering theorem and able to be broken down as well, you would be far better off viewing it as a type of applied skepticism. 

And the problem most all will not or ever admit, is that when they are wrong according to their methodical and probability deviant, they were merely taking the educated and best guess as to what should have won.  When they do wager and won, they build their persona into a larger and more destructive belief that they have it all figured out and that is when the real destruction can do greater damage to their play.  Basically, if you really do decide something with uncertainty that was in your belief decided upon with risk-based method, rather than ignorance or outside the textbook mathematical statistical variance, you will be much better off by far and large.  Because eventually your eyes will open, your frame-of-mind will realize and you will understand that you capitalized on visions, chance and opportunities rather than science, mathematical and discovering what the multi-billion dollar corporations wished you never did. 

The naysayers will label what I just attempted to lay out above, as saying, "being on the right side of luck and chance will only last for so long", etc.  Then they will always say, "If you really had something, you would be able to use it over and over and over again without failure, time constraint or losses".  Which is not true. 

Here, let me break it down a bit further.  Chance, being correct, taking advantage of an opportunity, etc., all might seem similar to saying, 'luck'.  But, in reality, since no one really knows with mathematical or scientific certainty, what presentments will ultimately come out of the shoe and in what order, mathematical and statistical formulas that define what wagering protocols should be, really do not matter.  Why?  Because when you are at the casino table, you are at a highly random environment with certain windows of opportunity that can be successfully taken advantage of.  Unlike the practice of medicine, engineering or anything else that requires the highest majority of correct results to originate from non-random and non-variant sets of protocols, determining the outcome.  And in those endeavors, knowing the protocols will award you the knowledge to have the correct answers.  It is virtually the opposite, when we are at the casino table. 

The whole other, 'half-way educated' group, maintains a firm belief that there is only a few types of plays that will profit from wagering and those are all elementary in their repetitive writings and one-liners.  They are very good at attempting to have everyone believe that there is actually only one or two ways to wager and everything else is 'false belief' by the gambler.  They insist that it is all non-rocket science and yet, while they actually will never actually divulge their 'correct and only' ways to properly wager, they really do put on a good show.  I would have to put them in the same league as to those women that actual curl up with a bowl of potato chips and soda and get lost in watching those old fashioned soap-operas on television.  Great entertainment, even losing yourself in 'make believe' but sorry pal--not reality by any means! 

However, what most people know in their hearts--but will never ever admit is that we are into the new-age of info sharing, instant everything and no need for, 'blood-sweat & tears' any longer.   It turns out that we aren't very good at distinguishing the knowledge we keep in our heads from the information we find on our phones or computers. As Dr. Wegner and Dr. Ward explained in a 2013 Scientific American Journal article when people call up information through their devices, they often end up suffering from delusions of intelligence. They feel as though, "their own mental capacities" had generated the information, not their devices. "The advent of the 'information age' seems to have created a generation of people who feel they know more than ever before", the scholars concluded, even though "they may know ever less about the world around them".  And, it is no different for the gambling crowd.  I read and researched on the internet, I know everything you learned over 20 or 25 or 30 years, etc., I know it all, so what? 

That insight sheds light on our society's current gullibility crisis, in which people are all too quick to credit lies and half-truths spread through social media by Russian agents and other bad actors. If your phone, tablet, I Pad, or laptop, has sapped your powers of discernment, you'll believe anything it tells you.  Which is reality.  It's your money, spend it the way you see fit and make yourself comfortable with all the fake reassurance that you give yourself by simply believing what is not true and what makes for 'good print', because in reality, that is all it really is.

Quote from: esoito on December 14, 2013, 11:27:12 PM
�There is no truth. There is only perception.�

Am I the only one who finds that quote somewhat frightening? If it's true...

When two witnesses to the same event give different accounts (as so often happens) then the quote has a ring of truth -- according to my perception.

Interesting, hmmm?  (According to my perception.)

See?  It's a sort of endless loop -- according to my perception.

That is 100% correct, and it is the perception that hurts people, not anything else about it. 

But it is usually always perception and how we each interpret it or attempt to use whatever it is--even outside of gaming when you come to think about it.

https://kdvr.com/2017/11/15/casino-customers-prosecuted-for-playing-abandoned-slot-credits/

I really have moved away many years ago from the steady and repetitious 'anything' in baccarat.  Being repetitious in baccarat is almost a guaranteed loss, unless you are playing an extremely short amount of time.  And, in which case, if you lost right away which will happen more so than wins, your wins will have an extremely hard time to catch up, replace the previously lost money and third, give yourself a nice profit. 

I really only do the parlay wagering once or twice out of win money, or set aside a certain amount of win money to split up and attempt my '1 + 4' parlays, or start the 1-3-2-6/1-3-2-4 parlay.  But, I do not do them on an on-going wagering thing, hand after hand.  Or, the other one I do, is win and parlay 1/2 or 3/4 of the win and then pull down the win amount in full if I win and leave the original bet or pull the bet down and save it for another hand, etc. 

Quote from: Sputnik on July 07, 2018, 04:27:28 PM
Alrelax thanks for taking time and effort to explain.

(Your welcome, no problem)

I like the method of taking 1/3 out of the winning pot and continue with what remains.
Will try this my self.

(I verify, but my own benchmark to start this, is if I triple my buy-in or more, but depends on how long or how bad the struggle was to get there, etc.)

I don't fully understand you staking strategy, but i assume you play 1326 at Banker or Player side and on the other side you play up as you go, for example, 12345 on a winning, if not you flat betting 1111  and 1326 kick in - everything between loses or break even.
Is this correct or am I missing something or did I misunderstand your staking strategy?

(Yes, the 1-3-2-6 or 1-3-2-4 with the win, after some wins off the flat betting paid off, etc.  I cannot say how many times I would flat bet?  But generally the easier the wins come, if they do, I would be more aggressive moving towards the positive progressions to continue, rather than sticking to a flat betting stake.  I view everything in sections, most of the time.  Losing, winning, pushing back and forth, hitting side wagers, losing side wagers, etc.  I found out after the first 20 years of playing, that the wins are the shortest sections and when they come, you have to be aggressive.  If you flat bet or wager scared or sit out and wait, you will ever do well at baccarat.  But, IMO, the whole key that helps turn the lock to open the door, is hitting the winning section real hard and aggressive and then backing down.)

(The sections, help me control my emotions and desires I guess.  Sections, the same as I wrote about with turning points, regarding chop-chop, steaks, doubles, 1's and 3's, etc., etc.  Everything I try to view as sections, that way I am not looking 50 hands later for the same thing, which the majority of times will not happen anyways.)

Cheers

I tried to answer as short as I could, but I have numerous variables I use to, 'milk a winning session' and how I can safely do it without ever giving back all my win money.  Any questions, ask, thanks.

Quote from: Sputnik on July 07, 2018, 01:13:48 PM

  Hello Alrelax, what is your loss limit and how do you handle your money playing with positive progression.
How and when do you stop playing?

(As a general rule of my own--my loss limit is my initial and dedicated buy-in.  I have written about this numerous times in different perspectives.  But on a local level, (versus going every so often to Vegas or Atlantic City)  I bring and buy-in with what I am willing to risk and lose for the session.  The highest majority of the time, that is what I subscribe to.  After years of playing, I found that when I win--I win.  When I lose on a consistent basis for the immediate session, I keep losing.  When I push money back and forth, meaning--win 3, lose 4, win 5, lose 6, win 4, lose the next 3, etc., I will generally either take off on a great win or go straight down hill.  Since I do win larger with numerous side wagers up to 200 to 1 or the 40 to 1's, etc., I take all that into consideration about continuing or stopping).

For example, sometimes you make a few units as the strike comes later during the game and sometimes you strike in beginning and win serious money. Do you stop playing in both situations?

(At times I will hit it very nicely/large in the beginning of the session.  I then convert to my 1/3rd money management system I adopted that suits me extremely well and has made me a lot of larger wins over time and i do believe allowed me to keep 2/3rds of what I have won, when I most certainly would have given it back.  So, the majority of times, if I won--I would have re-pocketed my buy-in and hopefully 2/3rds of the initial win money and possibly further win money, depending on what the outcome of the continued play was with the initial 1/3rd or so of the win money.  But I keep breaking it down and not stacking it up, in front of me like almost everyone does.  I play better with a clearer mind when the win is off the table and put away. 

When I do win the 'serious money', I usually continue the play, but 99% of the time with the 1/3rd MM System to govern myself.  Because I learned the hard way, stack it all up in front of yourself and then when you lose, you persist to, 'get it back' and lose consciousness of the situation, at least I do.  My proof to myself of what I just said was, I know all my repeated buy-ins when I have a losing session, will far outweigh my winning ones, if (IF) I continued to repeatedly buy-in with the pursuit of winning or getting even.  Does not matter if I have a $5,000 or $10,000 or $100,000 bank roll with say 10% buy-in amounts for each session.  Example, $500 buy-in with a $5,000 bank roll.  That would give me 10 solid chances to win something 'good/nice/sizable'.  When a repeated buy-in type of playing, puts it all at risk where I might not recover it, that same session.  One session I can and do lose.  Same with 2 and 3 and 4 sessions.  It is not rare, but infrequently I seldom lose more than 4 or 5 sessions consecutively.  I will and have always made my, 'local bank roll amount' back before it becomes completely depleted with all losing buy-ins straight, without replenishing it.  The key to my system of MM is also, say I lost 4 sessions over a few weeks.  Then on the 5th or even 6th sessions I started to win.  The first amount of the win money has to go back to my bank roll to make it whole.  Then my buy-in comes off the tale and added back to make my bankroll whole or in as profit/win amount.  Then, play of the win with 1/3rd, etc. 

Prior to playing this way I mentioned above, I would easily lose an entire bank roll or lose all continued repeated buy-in's versus winning and getting even.  And the few times I did win, with a repeated buy-in attempt to continue a session, would far outweigh the times  was able to make a come back.  IMO, that has to do with becoming frustrated, aggravated and just plain pissed-off.  Clouded judgement and the inability to play correctly.

As far as the progressions, once I start to win, I will start with 1-3-2-6's or just my side parlay besides my regular flat betting wager amount.  I try to take one win or a win and split it up into 4 or 5 attempts, called my 'side parlay wager'.  Say I won $500.00.  I take that $500 and try 5 times with $100 each bet.  I try to parlay it '1 + 4' times.  $100, then $200--$400--$800--$1,600.  Those are my 2 different types of progressions, but my positive progressions are 90% of the time out of my win money, not trying to catch up or recoup losses.)

Cheers