I agree with you, but I was up literally hundreds of units, it was enough.  I would have struggled or won and lost at best.  The best opportunities are not always there, sticking around and praying for more or waiting for more would be frustrating and tempting.  I do believe it was well after midnight as well with an hour and half drive home and had to get up by 6 am.  I know myself and the same as the days I was in NYC or NJ and at Mo Sun or FW and it was midnight or 1 AM and I had a business to open early in the morning, limits are limits and things get complicated when a person plays to win and is not at ease.   

Good job on the wins for sure!

Simply unbelievable, but in so many ways, believable.  Main street with 4 lanes of traffic, two each way.  Side cross street intersects with the main street.  Traffic light is there.  Light red for the side street and green on the main road.  Traffic is there, not too busy, smaller city.  Lady on the side street going to make a right hand turn at the light and onto Main Street.  She has her phone in her left hand and she is texting or something with her right.  She slows up at the light and turns right, does not even look at the traffic coming at her.  The first car closest to her jams on their brakes but the car in the second lane collides with her as she turned right and immediately crossed the lane she was supposed to turn into and then signal left and switch lanes. 

I see it all the time where the cross street turns and the person never even merges into the lane they are supposed to be in, just crosses it to get to the further over lane. 

She winds up getting a ticket for failure to stop, improper turn, improper lane change, distracted driving and expired registration.

What a champ!   

Absolutely spot on, no matter which way you think or desire.

I know in that shoe I posted last night of 23 or so players against he 2 Bankers out there in the very beginning of the shoe, winning large money compared to a relatively small buy in, that if I continued playing, most of it--if not all of it would have gone back to the casino.  Why would someone wager tens of thousands of dollars against what was happening, versus the same amount of those very same wagers with what was happening? Well, IMO, insight, knowledge, experience, desires, expectations, frame of mind, beliefs, false positives overruling and many other things. 

People would come on here and say, wait a second Alrelax, the only way it would have gone back to the casino is if you were foolish, did not apply money management and got unlucky.  Nope, wrong.  Within one or two shoes it would have went back or the highest majority of the win would have anyway.

Sorry, I have been gambling too long.  It was a great win with hundreds of times greater than the buy in.  Leave, be gone a few days, reset and back to my same LEVEL and PLATEAU, I normally wager at in this area and types of casinos I play at. 

THe other people playing, win and win and then they fall because they attempt everything AsymB just outlined.  Hocus Pokus or whatever you want to label it, the numbers and statistics will not consistently hold up at the bac table, day in and day out, grind or pounce on it.  You cannot win and win and win and continue any type of win on a solid consistent basis.  No matter is that is one unit or 100 units each game/shoe. 

If you merge numerous factors of my psych detailed explanations along with numerous factors of what AsymB talks about, you will start to get a clearer picture of how to prevail at bac with insight and understanding, IMO.  There are other members that do contribute and know plenty as well, I am just highlighting what I just read with what I just did as well last night.

I hope this makes sense, to me it does but then again maybe I am just waving that magical wand that Mickey Mouse loaned me from Disney World and I am screaming the words hocus pokus? Maybe, huh?  I do not know.   

You know, I live in a fairly small town.  About 5,000 people or so.  3 city cops on during the day and 1 at night.  Dispatch at night is the Sheriff's Office, type of town.  Okay, I ran from the office over to the market to get something for lunch today.  There are a couple of teens on a corner making snowballs with the melting snow and tossing them at cars as they go by.  I seen one of the cops pull over, get out of his car and talk to them.

I can only imagine.  Most likely, hey come on, stop.  Not nice.  There is your warning.  The same cop pulled me over last week.  I was rushing home to get something done, the snow was falling on top of ice.  I slowed up at a stop sign but clearly did not stop and started to slide.  I did not see anyone coming close by from the cross street so I ran the stop sign.  Sure enough, the cop saw me.  Lights came on, I pulled over.  He said what I did.  He told me he was going to run my license, registration and plates, if not problem, then we can talk.  He comes back in about 2 minutes.  Hands me the paperwork, tells me, be careful, watch those stop signs.

Okay, back to the teens and the snowballs.  I pulled in the market, ran in and got what I wanted at the deli counter.  Back out to my car.  The teens are throwing more snowballs once again.  The cop comes back.  This time the teens are put in the back of the police car and off they go.

Sometimes it is best to adhere to a warning and learn from it, other times the bullies and the ones that like to circle and circle and circle and circle, learn the hard way.  Of course, IMO.   

I have repeatedly witnessed this exact stupidity of wagering, more and more the past 2 years than ever in the past 30 or so.

Some of the players were doing so well with the shoe as well as the previous shoe.  Then they start losing and especially when it is all 1s and 2s and 3s, they begin that relentless drive with a negative progression repeatedly on the opposite side.  Does not matter if it is player or banker on a run, they will wager against it.  Then 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 repeatedly come out and they all get wiped out, every single one of them. 

Years ago, almost never seen that kind of wagering, but now, all the time.  Today, I see more great patterns and trends so obvious and most of the people playing will not wager with the shoe.  Total disarray in their wagering and beliefs.

A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.

Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.

I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.

What is an EDGE?  Can you actually get an EDGE?  To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.

The above is a quote from the OP.  Yes, you are absolutely correct about wins and losses.  You can never be on all sides with an Edge.  It is impossible, so--IMO, why attempt to do that.  However, trying it leaves room to improve your knowledge of reality the game produces.  Problem is, most of us are not in reality and refuse to see it. 

It is also like someone saying, that restaurant specializes in seafood and is well known for having the best seafood in town.  There is no way they could have a great Asian dish, it is impossible.  But, maybe they really do?  Maybe their sole Asian dish is horrible.  Maybe is great on the days a certain chef is working and off on the other days when that chef is not present?   

Same in baccarat.  But there is no edge that can give you consistent wins on anything that will redundantly appear.

People attempt to convert computer statistics to live gaming and those statistics were not derived from the amount of hands that you will be playing in front of.   

The real edges come from other avenues within the game of baccarat.  I don't know about the game of roulette, perhaps so or not?  But in baccarat the edges are not definable by mathematical numbers.  Disclosure:  IMO.

But there are edges. 

Quote from: Bally6354 on March 02, 2019, 11:13:02 PM
Flat betting is my personal preference. On saying that, I will use a positive progression if a section of the shoe looks like it's heading for a run of a streak/chop or what I would define as a 'staggered' chop. Obviously nobody knows what's coming out beforehand, but you do need to have something in your armoury which can identify the switches quickly if you want to profit from flat betting. It's no good losing a few units at the end of one section just to possibly win one unit on the next few decisions before another couple of losses if you hope to be successful. Asym is right in one respect! You better know your 'first bet' is going to be a winning one the majority of the time because then you have some wiggle room.

Simply put, good logic in many ways. 

Interpretation plays a huge part of baccarat, IMO. 

Think, Know, Act on Gut, Cut out False and No Good Influences.

There most definitely is a way to get ahead by flat betting.

Just almost all players, at least those in all the B&M's I go to and have ever been at, main floor bac and high limit bac, I would have to say an unofficial 98 out of 100 will never stop with a few units.

Once again, I have written extensively, IMO about psych and reality of bac gaming and how to get the best chance of gathering up some sizable wins, capitalizing on groups, sections and opportunities, etc.  I have experienced almost a turn around in leaving the table with a profit in sizable amounts versus that of a few units.

But, yes.  Flat betting can work the same as anything else with less risk, but less chance to win larger amounts.

Time is the players enemy #1.  Everything falls behind the time factor.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 18, 2019, 02:44:56 AM
Imo to win at baccarat itlr, our plan must be considered in cycles adhering at most by taking into account just two steps:

1-  winning the first hand wagered is of outmost importance;
2- winning the second hand whether the first was lost.

This simple two step wagers plan considered by cycles must have each a higher 75% of success.

When it happens to be wrong at both opportunities, we need to be very careful to place more bets as strong negative variance is going to come out more often than we think.
Thus waiting to get a fictional positive outcome is not sufficient to restart the betting.

The reason is that baccarat is very similar to a coin flip endless proposition, therefore WW, WL, LW and LL sequences are presenting whimsically but itlr they'll be equal.

We cannot guess the lenght of the streaks, therefore we should simplify the problem by considering columns as singled or streaky (any streak).
It doesn't matter what strategy we like to adopt, what really counts is whether how many times we'll win the first or the second hand (really or fictionally), then classifying the results.

Since any bac shoe is a finite limited model, we know that more often than not a losing series won't be balanced by a perfect counterpart and the same is true taken in the opposite direction.

I mean that some shoes cannot be played at all as we do not want to find us in the position to guess the opposite of what our plan is dictating.

In a word, we'll be in a far better shape not playing certain shoes not fitting our plan at the start than trying to follow the actual shoe or, even worse, trying to hope to get balanced outcomes that have no room to show up.

Professional players like to bet a lot on very few spots and they never want to chase previous losses and it's not a coincidence that they'll stop the betting after two consecutive losses.

as.

You are so correct in so many ways.  Great summation, but as I have problem also---is explaining it in detail so all understand.  Just too much.

BTW, the first two wagers or three in fact are almost always vital to the real-serious player, unless you are grinding small min amounts of wagers of course.

Here is something I found from my Blog that I believe fits in here well, IMO:

"And, in my book--you are NOT going to accomplish that by what the highest majority of players say here on this board as well as the other message boards.  No possible physical way!  I have truly been there and done that thousands and thousands of times.  You know, baccarat is strange--extremely strange because  tonight you can win or lose by doing same exact thing you did last time.  Baccarat is NOT like cooking--where there is a certain and a proven way to prepare a dish.  It doesn't change--unless you the chef changes it.   You have a perfect recipe and you repeat it, it will come out the exact same every time.  Same thing with, troubleshooting a motor vehicle.  Same equipment, same procedure, same results doing the same thing.  You know, baccarat is more like hunting.  Exactly.  Different course, different outcomes, different chases, different rewards, different amount of success and different amounts of failure.  Same game!  Also, two hunters can start at the same line with the same equipment, and finish with drastically different results at the end of the hunt session.  Just like the game of baccarat.  It is how we, myself and you and them--handle ourselves, our money--our thought process and our visions-desires-wants--our realization and how each accept the losses or the wins within each shoe and session we play."

I read this a few minuets ago after waking up from my nap on the couch, don't we all do that before we finally go to sleep?

Fantastic, real, explains all the boards and all the people, real quick.  Again, LOL!   

I had a PM and I was actually congratulated on this past article I wrote.  LOL.  But I decided to bump it.  It is funny with the comment by Jimske how this board is dead, correct.  But also how hundreds come on to read and I watch them and run IP addresses and LOL, funny who lots of them are, LOL!  But anyways, lots of guests and few post.  Again, LOL............................

Well, here we are, another Superbowl.  2019.

First off, I detest New England 100%.  I am from the Northeast, NYC/New Jersey born NYC and most of my life in the area or in NYC and New Jersey.  I am a Jets, Eagles and Vikings fan for the longest. 

I used to be a heavy NFL and Collage football bettor.  Did great for the longest time and stopped it all when I left New Jersey 2002 for the Midwest.

I placed on NFL wager this season a couple of weeks ago in New England and made it with the point spread, almost did not, just squeezed by.  If they were the favorites, I would have lost the wager. 

Everyone I talk to about the Superbowl is saying New England will never win.  I disagree.  Because Brady always the highest majority of the time is spot the frick on!  He is totally the go to with the know how and does stuff that is expected but the other team is counting on him to chicken out.  IMO.

My buddy, the retired NYC cop out here near me, just took his whole year of baccarat winnings, about $20,000.00 and put it all on New England as well.  I am wagering New England, not the over-under or anything else.  I am not putting life changing sums or anything of the like.

I do wholeheartedly believe that the bookies convince the press what to say and how to say it.  The last article I read last night was that it is a no brainer and the Rams will score high and walk away with it.

Seriously?  IMO and IMO only, this will be a close match, New England will win and the books want everyone to go high and with the Rams, because that most likely will not happen. 

As we all know in sports, it is not always the most talented or experienced or the best that does win.  There are numerous factors, strategy and team work that influences and changes the game and the outcome, each time.  And that is the problem with picking the winners beforehand.

Had to post this, what the heck?

Being raised in South Florida during the Miami Vice Days as it was labeled, I got a quick out of this building the other day here in the Midwest!

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 29, 2019, 03:21:23 AM
High stakes players willing to hear strategic suggestions and giving the mentor a cut on their profits simply want to get more winning hands than losing ones.
They do not give a fk about progressions, stop losses or MM issues.
They mainly like to adopt a wise flat betting strategy as they know that at worst they won't lose more than math expected (minus the huge comps they are entitled to get or deals on losses made with the casino).
A luxury almost no one bac player in the world would think about.

Thus only a proper bet selection might have the best of the game by 1 trillion of certainty.

There's no way a math disadvantage could be overcome by "human" countermeasures like MM, stop losses and progressions: such are just human illusory worthless tools.

If our plan is properly set up, the more we'll play the more we'll win.

Period.

as. 

You are pretty spot on, bit they add enormously to the visualize and the illusion players convince themselves of, experienced or inexperienced, most all use those things like MM, Progressions and all the rest as justifications and way outs, they just look at them the wrong way IMO.

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 09:16:23 PM

No. Prediction is impossible. All I can do is get into synchronization of when my guesses are working. After more than a decade quarreling with Caleb/General/Snowman/Xander/Dr Nobody/etc... I have tried to make it clear that I can't predict any future outcomes. Accept perhaps for this prediction. He will continue to gather his sycophant army to record spins from wheels for him from all over the world. It's nothing less than a Cult following.

Excellent. Reality. Realization. Correct Mark.