Quote from: Gizmotron on August 11, 2018, 02:58:20 PM
It's not programming, but I did program my student #1 in just three short weeks. He won 43 sessions and lost 9 for a win ratio of 4.77:1 . A player using my method needs to win 2.333 times to make up for any lost session, for it to reach balance at 2.333:1 . My student is getting better also. My second student is just starting to practice. He does not want to use the practice software so he is doing all this training the hard way. The more the three of us work on this the more we will know about the win to loss ratio as it pertains to money. If I lower the win ratio to 4:1 then I will win four sessions to every 1 lost session. This should completely destroy the fallacy (1:1) known as the accepted mathematical truth. The house's edge will be the end of that "flat world" thinking. 


In case you can't figure this out, my stop win goal is lower than my stop loss point.

Mark,

I am not discounting anything you said/say, same as w/Lugi and some others to a certain point.

I cannot and do not and never took the time to learn the math and conversion to figures/stats with wins and losses, etc.

I have attempted to described and detail out my effective wager selections NOT so much based on guessing and trends/patterns and other influences, etc., but on other things such as;  Money Management, my unique (1 + 4 Side Parlays) my positive progressions mixed along with flat betting, wins and pull downs or an outright press up for once or twice, etc. 

Attempting to only lose or risk some of the win capital or limit myself to a 'at risk' buy in, etc.  But of equal importance is the player's 'Level', 'Plateau', time management merged with his emotional, vision, focus and all of that.  Problems come about no matter whom you are with false perceptions of bank rolls, increasing wagers, that million dollar pot at the end of the rainbow most everyone thinks is there for the easy picking---just wager 4 to 8 shoes a day and make several easy thousand consistently, times 30 days and 12 months and BOOM, they are instant millionaires, etc.  That is what really hurts some of the best players and best thought out strategies, really. 

But, lots of the things you mention and Lugi mentions, I have Incorporated and have been or did, etc., with positive results.  Reference: 'Win to loss ratios',  and other things along those very lines interfaced with the extreme short term of taking advantage of the weak/strong/chop-chop/doubles/ with or against or whatever it might be that somehow fits into the balancing act and numbers of overall shoes.  The latter statement is the one members like Lugi, (the previous Xander-Soxfan and Jimske) will twist and turn and destroy and state that I stupidly attempt to read the trends and patterns and then wager for or against them.  And that is not exactly correct by any means. 

Yep, he is brilliant alright.  Personally, I thought NYPD Blue was a great TV weekly show at the time!  However, how can someone piss away that kind of cash? 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/david-milch-made-100m-gambled-866184

Along the same lines here is a comical read for laughs. 

I have seen plenty along these lines in Atlantic City prior to 2001 and of course in Vegas.

https://www.brainjet.com/random/2375330/casino-dealers-reveal-the-most-devastating-losses-theyve-ever-seen-at-the-table/

http://www.autonews.com/article/20171011/OEM02/171019849/billy-gwalters-prison-indictment-dealer

Man, these people let gambling go to their head, no matter what they have or what they can legally do in a non-gambling atmosphere.  LOL, as many of these I see, I can't understand how they think and what they do!

To the BetSelection Board and an open letter to Gizmo/Mark:

The following was written by Gizmotron/Mark here on BetSelection Board June 8, 2018:
 
"So I'm getting requests to teach again in my PM's. Interesting. Nobody knows my newest method and why I went back to EC's. But what a few really want is to become experts at hunting the global effect. I don't blame them too. I sort of put a bull's-eye on myself to the math guys as a major challenge to refute the existence of it.


PM me if you want private tutoring. This could be the moment when trends become the fashion regardless of what the probability states what should happen. I'd like to focus just on the global effect and the skills needed to beat this game while hunting them. This time it will be private email and not a school for all to see. I will cut and paste questions and answers to this group. I have found that almost everyone has the same questions while learning. I hope that at least five students will sign up for this. I will share the cost among this limited group. If I get 5 students then all will get in for a reduced and shared price. It will take at least six weeks just to get to the point where each student can prove to me that they know how to do this. My goal is to turn out Roulette winners. It will be my success story. I have my reasons. The math crowd is starting to consider this after 12 years. Once they have it, the world will change. And i really enjoy opening peoples eyes."

The following was written by myself here on BetSelection Board June 16th, 2018:

"But since the forum has a new owner, perhaps a review of the rules regarding advertising and/or selling might be in order? There are several members doing this, including Gizmotron who is now looking for more students. I quote : "PM me if you want private tutoring." -- Gizmotron. (https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/for-those-who-think-house-edge-or-negative-expectation-is-the-sole-culprit/msg63571/#msg63571) "

And it was posted by 'Mike'.  He has the same thing or variations of it posted in about 3 member's threads, Vrsedge's, Albalaha's and Gizmo's. 

I will clarify.  Refer to the Board's Rule #6 please.  More specifically, just a few words within that you in particular need to focus on, understand and absorb.  Here, I will make it a tad bit easier for you:

"No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member's or member's affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators. "


Without going further into too much detail, I will explain the purpose of writing this and posting it.  Gizmortron (Mark) and I have a history for a number of years on the board here.  Yes, we has ups and downs and yes I know privileged stuff, nothing of national security or anything like that--just posts never released and other things along those lines.  And yes, I did take sided in a business dealing of types that Mark had with another board member.  It is on the board and I locked the thread, still visible. 

Mark has accused me of many things in the past.  So be it.  Some true with a twisting of the truth, facts and interpretations.  I blew up at one series of them, erased hundreds of my posts and quit the board here, Vic talked me back.  A few others talked me into calling it a clean slate with Mark.  I eventually did.  Mark even apologized with a really heartfelt apology and I accepted.  Then another round developed and I called Mark on it.  I apologized and he never accepted it, not genuinely accepted it anyway.  BTW, the apologies are on the board here, both the ones from Mark to myself and mine to Mark.  So, we existed here together.  That really bothered me by the way.  But once a dog bites and you hit the dog, I guess the relationship is really ruined?  I guess. 

Down to business.  The past couple of days, I am receiving some communication from an idle board member here and an active two other persons at another message board.  I received well over 25 copies of things Mark has posted in great detail about me and this board, BetSelection elsewhere.  I read the majority of the ones I sent to me and I also verified that they are up and visible on other message boards and there are.  I am very surprised and I am also, very appalled!  I will leave the emotional end at that and kind of "set it aside" for the time being. 

Mark believes I am someone else, a sock puppet and also believes there are a few of us banded together and against him.  All of it, the furthest thing from the truth.  I have far too many things going on at the moment with my personal life, dissolving a 5 year partnership in a viable & profitable business, starting my new restaurant down south, the taking over of BetSelection Board, and several other things, way too much at the moment. 

Three Things.  1)  I am trying to remain neutral in this latest drama ridden filled thing with Gizmo/Mark and the ugly, twised & disgusting words/posts and lies he is spreading about myself and a few others.  The same as I highly preach and recommend in baccarat, remain neutral in order to keep clear vision.  2)  Gizmo is definitely against me and BetSelection and I do not believe I gave him just reason for being so.  3)  What Gizmo/Mark does, whom he contacts, the PM's or emails he sends and receives, the teaching or tutoring he offered on this board and elsewhere, I have no idea or insight to.  I never did.  I never will. 

I welcomed him with open arms after several upsets and disputes we had.  I thought he was a friend at one point but I learned a while back, he truly was not.  He is influenced and bands together with whoever is popular on whatever message board he is writing on, IMO anyway.  I have not moderated him or banded him in anyway, yet.  I did give thought to it and that was my initial desire last night.  The emails I received this morning are even more disturbing. 

If I felt the way he obviously thinks I do about him, I never would allowed him to post or offer anything about his tutoring on the message board here, as I cited above.  I also would have moderated him as well.  I did neither.  He is putting me into an awful and uncomfortable situation.  He can continue his 2 sided personality about me and BetSelection on his current course or he can come back and apologize and make up to me as he did before.  The latter will probably be another fake attempt to exist on this message board as he proved in his last fake apologetic postings to me as evident by his own writings and outright ugly accusations he is currently posting.   


I took the time to write this with my heart, thought and justification.  Why?  Because my friendship (unlike what I am witnessing and experiencing on his part) is not fleeting or temporary.  That comes from my heart and maybe I should have kept that a secret or whatever, but I speak my piece, we all know that don't we?  So-----Mark, as the saying always goes, the ball is in your court. 

So be it.  Thanks, Glen

Absolutely fantastic subject! Human nature side, the effects and the superstitions.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on July 29, 2018, 12:29:28 AM
Moreover, a quite low probability is supposed to show up either very rarely or in clusters (meaning by lower gaps than what expected probability dictates, frequently by very strict gaps)

Almost never a  rare event is supposed to show up by the perfect general probability pace.

Do not forget that a rare event must catch up a possible deficit by getting a higher frequency on single shoes or conversely diluting a high past frequency registered on multiple shoes.

The expected EV is always the same (-14%) still the ACTUAL variance is very very high for obvious reasons.
Sooner or later some mathematical situations promting ties will arise, and there's no way that a given event will come out more often than not without showing up at least once.   

as.

 

Absolutely spot-on and like I've been saying in some of my posts, when it happens it happens and when it does not it'll hurt you if you keep waiting for it and wagering for it to happen.

And when you got 6 or 7 or 8 or 10 Bankers in a row and you got three fortune 7s within that run and then you got a whole bunch of panda 8s and a whole bunch of players to follow, you can clean house.  But you got to know when it's coming and you got to feel it.   And if you keep wagering for it to happen and it doesn't happen in those sections, you going to go broke or give it all back! 

That's what I warn everyone not to keep doing, you just got to have the frame of mind and you got to have the gut and go with it when it's happening and it's a very hard to do.  But it can be done!

Replaced in General Discussion by request, Glen.

Quote from: Nickmsi on July 27, 2018, 07:12:39 PM
Hi Glen,

Once again I agree that if you can win with your Decisions and Reality then keep on winning.  Everything you said is based on your knowledge and experience and works for you.

However, please do not think that yours is the only way to win.

Cheers

Nick

Absolutely I don't think that.

And I think I said the other day in a post I'm sure you seen, that I said seven people at the table and every one of them can win or lose and in many different or various ways. Winning has a lot to do with lots of thought and lots of different style and beliefs, etc.

If I said something or insinuated mine was the only way, it was said  tongue and cheek and in a comical way.  I absolutely do not believe that mine is the only way.

Tina a Southeast Asian ladyboy, pretty fine looking comes into the Casino in her six inch heels with ultra mini skirt and her fake boobs that look better than 99% of the real boobs on the ladies around the casino.

She struts up to the baccarat table, getting about two dozen 'check her out looks' from the males at the numerous tables and their girlfriends slap the hands of a few of the male patrons, as if to say what the hell are you looking at that girl for? Tina lays down a stack of $10,000 in hundred dollar bills and says all black and give me $2,000 in pink please.

Waldo catches a glimpse of her, adjust his pants around his buldging waist line and he waddled on over to the table and introduced himself as the Pit Boss. He told her call him over if she needed anything, to please ask him and he would  make sure she got it and he,emphasized 100%! 

To be continued.........

Waldo is alive and fine at the casino, seen him the other day.

"You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game.  In other words don�t play the Casino�s game, play your own game within the Casino�s game."


The above was a quote from NICKMSI's post within his first few sentences on the previous page. 

Very strong and very real words you said in your post here!

I just wrote something with that in mind, called Fallacy & Belief in Brief, in General Discussion Room. 

Possibly read it and think about it. 

Fallacy & Belief in Brief

What is Fallacy and Belief?  In the casino and outside of it.  It is really basically the same, at least IMO.

Say a person goes to a restaurant and eats there.  He or she does not like it for whatever reasons.  Maybe the food was good but the experience was bad?  Maybe the food was not up to their expectations?  Maybe something happened alongside with the trip to the restaurant and no matter what 100 other people would factually think about the food, the person that just entered had other things going on within themselves that no matter what was served to them the opinion would be totally negative. 

Here is another example.  My son and I really like a certain mall.  It is a very popular mall and by no way, antiquated, secluded or off the beaten path, etc.  It is easy to park, lots of space, lots of other things around it, clean, a great play place for him that he really enjoys more than even the Mall of America with the huge and over the top, Nickelodeon Amusement Park in the middle of it.  A great Barnes & Noble store.  Countless food options, great restrooms, a huge movie theater with all the extras.  The list is long.  The wife does not like the place in her opinion and she has not really spent any time there.  She just does not prefer it for some reason as compared to other malls in the region.  Ask her, and she will say everything negative, too far, no good, I don't like the place and many other things except a real valid reason for not liking it or wanting to go there.  But if one was to really know her, she has little tendency to agree, cooperate, go along with, merge with others, or anything of the like.  She has a need to lead, retaliate, disagree with, set her own way, always make the discovery and not believe anything represented regardless of research, experience, warranty, etc.  At times nothing wrong with that attitude, especially in business to a certain extent.  But as an overall subscription and operating principal, I don't think that is the best way. 

Why do I say those things?  Because you just might be missing something, losing a great find, stepping on your tail and everything else along those lines.   You might very well be correct in every way, but then again, how would you really know for sure? 

Some people will draw their conclusions from just listening to others.  And IMO, that is subscribing to fallacy.  Yet, other people will not, they remain neutral wanting to experience whatever it is and basing their own advantages or disadvantages from that thing on their own.  They are not outright believing fallacy.

As far as gambling.  Let's set something straight please.  So many on this board and the ones that left the board going to another board, with their same redundant attacks and statements, accuse me of gambling fallacy.  I admit, one cannot beat the math.  But, that is my point!  I have always agreed about that.  But, we play to win.  The dealer is there for the long run, meaning 24/7, the dealers seat is always being played, the customers change for various reasons.  Running out of money, win and leave, being called away, etc.  Mostly running out of money, IMO. 

If you play 10 hands and you happened to win on 6 of them with great positive progressions and parlays, you should by all means, rethink everything going on.  I call that, resetting and refreshing.  Is it possible to win 6 or even 7 out of 10.  Sure!  Is it possible to repeat that every session within the exact time frame you choose on a regular basis?  No way!  Never ever will happen.  Even if it happens within a computer theory program you discovered. 

The math people will probably define it as Probability and Variance, or the house edge, etc.  Like I defined in my other postings, I don't really care about all that, seriously.  I focus on Decisions and Reality as well as the management of what I am engaged in and facing with the shoe presentments.  I do not attempt to beat the casino or the game; I do not attempt to outsmart the casino either.  I just shoot for that section of time where some type of opportunity is presenting itself and I try my best to match up my desires and reality with that.  The programming and the theories will side track you something awful, IMO.

So there is a bit about Fallacy and Belief.  We all have it, no matter what walk of life you come from or what your experience is at the casino.  When you sit down and actually play the game, you will be somewhat influenced by what you have been exposed to, what your knowledge, research, beliefs and desires are.  I cannot see any way around all that.  Maybe you can and maybe you subscribe to engaging in a scheduled wagering pattern according to something you saw on the internet or found on your computer.  But, I just cannot see how that will translate itself to the time frame with the shoes you are playing at the casino?  There is less than a 50% chance of you winning if you believe in the math and greater than a 50% chance of the casino winning your money.  There is no way around all that, including a set schedule of progressions. 

Unless, you work on certain presentments with some type of progression and/or parlays and then totally reset and refresh when you fall off the win section.  You have to give yourself a much larger chance with the accumulated wins to far outweigh your losses and the risk capital, rather than a +1 or a -1 or a +2 or a flat bet, etc.  That will only grind you down.  Reason being, you are attempting a mathematical revenge in reverse on the game to accumulate wins.  It will not work. 

Part 2 will have a brief synopsis of my thoughts and successful progressions and parlays.  To be continued..........

You know Mike when I wrote that I thought about you. Seriously I did. If you said anything else or something really complimentary I would probably forget about the Board sell it get rid of it, but I knew that wouldn't happen. 

You don't change.

Maybe it's just me and my imagination. But I have noticed that almost all of the people that are relatively new to the message boards and or gambling, they'll come on a message board and say how great they are doing. So many have one common denominator which is they can't reveal their whole wagering selection or system whatever you want label it.

They'll give you a few things and then say how great they're doing and how much they are making and people will press them for what it is. The more you press on the more conversation and posting back and forth.

Eventually the person that was doing so great, just fades away.  Again maybe it's my imagination?  Kind of comical, at least that's the way I find it.