Asym,

Back on subject.  As you said in context, "Notice that more likely than not, an early P 3+ streak apperance will followed by many 3+ streaks than what the opposite situation will do.  Especially whether such 3+ streak is immediately followed by another identical 3+ streak. ",  I would have to put that and that into my own 'identifiable events' whereas--classically strong player side presentations in the beginning, tend to continue the gravitation of producing multiple player repeats (whatever the number is) as compared to Banker winning repeats.  In the beginning of the shoe is much more prevalent and noticeable to myself--and certainly has raised my eyebrows for quite some time.

I hope I expressed myself correctly. 

Thanks, Lungyeh.  As you know we talk on the side and your opinion means a lot to me. I'm trying to fix the things on the board with Vic and I've been talking to him about some of the concerns you've expressed to me. I do have respect for the mathematicians it's just that I've expressed my opinions about the interpretation of the statistical analysis in relation to wagering and I think you would agree with it.  Even if it is correct the order of it is no better than flipping a coin it's all in the control and everything else I've detailed out at great length and took lots of time to put onto the board, if it's too complicated and too detailed so be it, everyone can gamble the way that they gamble and they're at the mercy of their soul and their emotional feelings that will blind their judgment the highest majority of the times, we've all been there.  I feel sorry for the inexperienced ones that go in and wager their hard-earned money or all their life savings on something that cannot come about the way that they've been told it will come about. Thanks again.

I wholeheartedly apologize to AsymBacGuy for taken that space within your thread as it is kind of 'off-topic' but I answered the question that was presented to me within your thread/room.

Quote from: Mike on April 28, 2018, 10:53:00 AM
Yes I've noticed.    I don't know why, but it's very common for gambler's to think they know better than mathematicians and to distrust or dismiss computer simulations (perhaps because "no one plays a million shoes"  ). But maybe I'm being presumptuous. What exactly is your objection to theory or simulation?

It doesn't really make sense to say that something works FOR YOU, because that implies it might not work for someone else. Suppose there are other players at your table who believe that you're the world's greatest bacc player, so they mirror all your bets perfectly. Obviously if it works for you then it must also work for them, and if you're winning they are also winning (and ditto if you're losing).

On the other hand, if it really is the case that your strategies don't work for others, but they do for you, then the only conclusion to be drawn is that your winnings are based on luck, not on the actual strategies. If something works then it works, period. Only if luck is the overriding factor does it happen that the same system/strategy played by different people or at different times results in sometimes winning, sometimes losing. The lack of consistency tells you it's just randomness at work and that the method is worthless.

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Mike, with all do respect to yourself, I will copy and paste an answer I took a few minutes to just post to Xander, because he is aligned with yourself and your questioning or comments to myself about my posts.  And, there is a lack of consistencies within the way I wager on 'playing the shoe' if one analyzes what I wagered on based on what happened or appears on the score board, etc.  But I do have huge consistency in the way I gamble with tons of protocol based upon psychology, money management, thinking, emotional feeling, my ability to identify possible identifiable events and opportunities, as well as everything I have written about and explained and took great time to define--write and exploit.  It works great and is profitable to a certain point if one can apply it with all the situations, events and feelings as well as the most fallible of all--gamblers self inflicted doom from apply his desires to the unknown results that are being produced to himself that he fails to recognize.  Again, I have written about them and since you disagree and do not feel I have the proper intelligence, experience or knowledge--why read or follow or ask me questions? 

But as I said, Here is my answer to you out of respect and courtesy to your question.  Quote from me as I said:


Yes, I do and have known that.

Yes, I understand their mathematical skills and knowledge.

Yes, their statistics and their simulations/theories are probably correct for the series and the amount of shoes that they test.  I have never challenged those or said those were wrong or inaccurate, not by any means.  And if I did, it was meant in the context of what I was sitting in front of or have experienced for the evening or session, etc.

However, I have played this game since Atlantic City came about continuously.  I have learned boats loads about the reality of gambling, gambling players, the casino, psychology, the effects of winning and losing, the benefits of deciphering certain things the game brings about, the system of hosting--comps--average plays--casino comp theory--money management--benefits of a player remaining neutral--reality of bank rolls and buy-ins, the application of a players mind and what he is engaged in, etc., etc., and so on.

In other words, 'tons of stuff'.  I do not play every hand/every situation--event/every shoe the same and have no 'system or preset scheduled beliefs', with wagering schedules, etc.  IMO, if one does--you will at best (hopefully) break even eventually.  I wholeheartedly, through my experience believe that there are numerous opportunities and events that might come about and when they do--wagering for a definitive type of outcome, will have devastating results to a serious player.

It is the same exact thing in my business of hazardous materials and high risk incident management.  I have personally witnessed many very intelligent and highly educated engineers coming on scene in the field during an emergency.  Basically they know more than me in countless ways about chemical composition and the technical aspect of the spilled or released product.  But as far as cleaning up the site with the Department of Transportation or County Emergency Managers and the State Environmental Officials as well as the EPA, Railroad Environmental Departments or the Bureau of Indian Affairs,  with all the other restrictions, rules and regulations we have to and do follow, those highly educated and super-university diploma holding professors, engineers and related, are bothersome, get in the way, apply needless information and data having no value whatsoever in the field, do not meet emergency response certifications and lack extreme basic sense and protocols at the sit--so many times.  There are countless courses, certifications and much needed experience to work in the field, safely, legally and meeting regulations set forth by the state and the federal governments, that renders the type of people with great knoweldge, completely useless and even illegal in the field at an emergency site.

The same thing IMO, holds true for the casino gambling table in so many ways.  I do have non-mechanical and non preset wagering that works much higher than the majority of the times for me.  I have attempted to identify many of them within my writing here and the reason so many, such as yourself--do not agree with me and desire to challenge, twist my words around, add innuendoes and spar--is that you follow and abide by the mathematical statistics of the game of baccarat.  Period.  Not much room for discussion because  you and some others like yourself will continually challenge, without offering your 'holy-grail' that allow you to continually win and be so successful at the game.  Are you actually wealthy and very successful in the classical definition of those words at playing baccarat?  I don't know about the words and the challenges you consistently offer on the board-leaves many to believe you are.  All fine and I am happy for you if you are.  But I know, IMO and experience, for the same thing with using the results of both of those individuals you endorse and follow, will allow you to win and lose.  Again (IMO and experience) boils down to all the things I have defined, that has nothing or not much to do with the math and the statistics of game as to what will or will not happen.  There is so much more to the game of baccarat (in a live casino wagering actual money) rather than sitting at home on the computer in theory or even on-line gambling.   

So the same thing holds true, if you do not employ many or all the this I have written about, defined, suggested and exploited myself, there is no possible way you can multiple and continue winning using your conversion of mathematical statics of the game or by sprinkling magical dust on the cards in front of you, while you go through a one minute ritual of peeling and peeking at the cards themselves.  Period, pretty much the end of the story.

So, in this case and all others it is really no darn different than the old fashioned car drag strip.  The first one to the end wins.  No matter what colors, what training, what beer they drink, whom their sponsors are what energy drinks or soda pop they have decals for or if one is a country boy or an acid rocker with tattoos over his eyes and nipples.  Does not matter.  If my car beat yours, I was faster, drove better, had more skill and had a better pit crew and took advantage of other situations I found at the time, no matter what they were.  As long as I did not get disqualified for cheating or getting caught at cheating, I won fair and square and no matter the reason, I WON!  Period.  If your car beat mine, the same thing applies to you.  Period.  However, back in the pits, the same exact thing will be going one that happens at the baccarat table.  You will come over to me and say, "Yeah.....but---------", and then go on about how your lane had a bit of extra oily media & debris that gave me an advantage and only because  of that, I was able to beat you but in all actuality, you are better, faster and more experienced than myself, etc., etc., and so on and forth.  As you poke me in the chest and tell me all that gibberish and self serving rubbish, while everyone has a beer or a Corona and a lime or a paper plate of nachos-cheese and jalapenos in front of them watching and waiting for the fight to break out.  And back at the casino, you and others are there pushing money back and forth and applying mathematical statistical data and all that.  Great!  Fantastic!  I begin playing and it is like my buddy H-Money that called me.  Say I was at the shoe.  When those bankers came along for 6 Bankers right after a 9 handed chop-chop, I pounced on it--for whatever reason I convinced myself or that I saw coming.  Does not matter the reason.  Say I wagered $500.00, parlayed a couple of times.  While the rest of the table cited all kinds of 'cut' has to come out reasons.  I won 6 times lost once, they lost 5 times and won once.  It also happiness with a 20 series chop-chop event and as well with a 15 or 20 handed repeating banker or player run.

That same thing I referred to happened at the baccarat table.  H-Money my buddy called me a few weeks ago when he was continually losing money at the tables.  He tells me, "Hey Glen tell me what I should do.  The shoe started out and it was 9 time chop-chop and then 6 bankers came out and then 3 pairs of doubles and then 6 more bankers that matched exactly the first little run of bankers".  Totally impossible without being there and seeing what the numbers of the winning and losing hands were and many other things.  Even then, of course--my way of identifying events and opportunities work and do not work.  The trick that I mastered and serves me well, is within my money management, my side parlays, a bit of positive progressions, my beliefs and ability to identify certain events and as well--have the knoweldge and the willpower to 'pounce on them' while staying completely neutral and viewing as well as believing, I am using tools instead of money, etc., and everything else (once again stating) that I have written about and that works well or me.  Can I lose with my knowledge and my system of beliefs?  YES.  Can I win with them?  YES.  But when I won over $40,000.00 the other week I wrote about and posted pictures of, I lost about $15,000.00 of it one night employing what I call stupid statistical intelligence and following what I thought would be another easy and fun win.  I was dead wrong and no matter what I did, follow other players, follow myself, listen to dealers, wager on superstition or employ what I did on other shoes or the exact opposite, I would lose.  I went against everything I write about and know--in other words I admit what almost no one this board will admit, I was dead-on 100% stupid and foolish thinking I could do something that I would overrule and command with knowledge and experience.  And the irony of it was, if I did employ and use my 'systems' that I adopted and write about--I would not have lost that $15,000.00 I brought to the casino.  If you cannot or will not think and apply what will govern and assist you to win large and lose small, you will suffer and suffer with great pain at the game of baccarat.  Simple, an IMO--period.   You can debate that, I cannot and will not.

So in closing, do my systems work, yes for me. Will they work for another player, sure why not?  Are they exclusive to myself?  In some ways yes and some ways no.  Why?  Because I tailor them to my own situation, beliefs and financial position.  I truly gamble what I have set aside and I do it with the protocol that my buy-ins are tools and my tool box is strong and can absorb the loss or loan out of tools until I replace them.  I have three sets of financial envelopes.  Every week or two I build them or use them for their sources.  One is for all household expenses, another is for the kids and my family and future reserves.  The third is for gaming.  None of the envelopes or banks are ever intermingled, which i learned a while ago is dead-on wrong.  My buy-ins are a small portion of my bank roll.  My wins far out number the amounts of my losses and I also reset and refresh during a shoe as well as at the end of the shoe and most importantly, at the end of each winning and losing session.  I did not at the end of the 3rd one a few weeks ago and that is why I lost  $15,000.00 instead of $600.00 to $1,500.00 range.  I proved beyond any reasonable doubt to myself that my systems and beliefs and experiences--if intermingled in my own way, work darn good with great safe-stops and protection.

I hope this clarifies the misunderstanding you have of me and the failure you show in reading the other writings of mine.  Quite simply, two people playing a pinball machine, each with their own style, beliefs and mixture of feelings, experiences and knowledge of what might or might not happen can easily succeed numerous times or fail countless times.  What leads myself a bit above others,most times--is my ability to cut losses while or before they happen and as well, to compound and quickly build winnings far above the average player that analyzes the wrong way into the shoe before it is happening or ever will come about while he is there gambling.

But, as far as following a certain written protocol based upon mathematical statistics that a certain hand or even number of hands will produce a certain outcome in baccarat, is beyond foolish and absurd to me.  And, if that does work--by all means follow it and stay within the casino without challenging me by twisting my words and looking to spar. Then when you grow tired of winning, contribute that great knowledge you possess to the board here and others.   
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"es I've noticed.    I don't know why, but it's very common for gambler's to think they know better than mathematicians and to distrust or dismiss computer simulations (perhaps because "no one plays a million shoes"  ). But maybe I'm being presumptuous. What exactly is your objection to theory or simulation?"

I have no objection to it.  But, IMO--it does not belong at the table for wagering decisions on a consistent and ritual basis.  We/I are actually playing those very trivial amount of shoes each session that is the smallest and tiny-est section of what made up those numbers.  And, those are the ones that contain everything but what those statistical averages total to.  Or in some cases, can be the exact representation of those statistical averages learned and published.  But in either case, if a gambler fails to employ what I have written about, detailed, explained and found to be true the highest majority of times with money management, psychology, the aura, other players, etc., etc., etc., he will only devastate and destruct himself while gambling.

To address my final concern here, I feel as though your last paragraph is demeaning and an attempt to discredit and/or humiliate.  But, I will address it the best I can.  You said: "On the other hand, if it really is the case that your strategies don't work for others, but they do for you, then the only conclusion to be drawn is that your winnings are based on luck, not on the actual strategies. If something works then it works, period. Only if luck is the overriding factor does it happen that the same system/strategy played by different people or at different times results in sometimes winning, sometimes losing. The lack of consistency tells you it's just randomness at work and that the method is worthless."  I usually say (IMO) and (Works for me), etc., because  I don't inflict my ways on others I gamble with, even H-Money and my NYC retired cop life long friend and X-'LE' partner.  I have other gambling buddies that are casino only friends and co-players, etc.  I don't preach to them or attempt to convince them, sure we might small talk and dare each other, in casino 'spirit and fun' which brings about huge amounts of god camaraderie to us--but I am not ingrained in all the ways so many gamblers and casino players are in baccarat.  Meaning, wagering for such and such, because of 'so and so'.  And to me, that is what following statistical and mathematics does to a play in baccarat because they all too often forget about everything the game actually takes to win or hold their winnings.  I only do that for certain sections and opportunities that I can identify at times when they are happening.  Period.  There are such opportunities that can be identified by an experienced player, but the problem in definition and as well in profitability of doing that--is that the identifiable event is intangible.  You will most certainly stop me short--disbelief of myself and twist my words such as Xander does and use them against me.  That is what you are doing here.  On the other hand, I combat randomness by use of everything I have written about, no need to attempt the explanation in short--definitive combat here.  I Cannon due it because it would involve too many subjects.  A lot of those are in that 'Series of 10' articles within my Blog on this board on the first page within the highlighted section. 

If you love going to the casino and do well at wagering for a continual 'cut' because of something or say wagering for a SAP/VIN count and all that, great!  Do it, I don't go and challenge you and your skill, knowledge or unique findings and positive exploits that allow yourself to win based upon whatever they might be.  But you certainly, with definitive nature and wording discount and attempt discredit of what I write about.  At least IMO and my interpretations of your statements that reflect directly and solely to myself. 

Quote from: Mike on April 27, 2018, 04:39:58 PM
Why is your way better?

There are no "indications" of what will happen in either game.

I do not believe I ever claimed it to work definitively or be better, as you say?  If I did, I meant it in the context of 'working' and 'better' for me.  I have tried other ways and I attempt to define and explain what works in reality, in B&M for me or does not work for me.  I do not engage in theory or simulation with my writing and results thereof, etc.

I hope that clarifies what you say, I claim is 'better'. 

But I have definitely found what identifies many of the opportunities that will present themselves in the shoes, that work well for me the majority of the times I play, (IF) I remain free of player distractions, aura, desires and other psychology effects I self-inflict, etc.   

The below quote is one of mine:

"The key is, like a lot wagering in bac--do not define events that have to happen and wager on them to happen in order to win, wager on what is happening and/or for the opportunities that are presenting themselves or possibly will if there are indications as to that is what might occur."

I understand the need for many to turn that statement around, but to myself--it is vastly different than a player doing 'blind guessing' and longer series of scheduled wagers that are preset, scheduled and must appear in the order that matches up to your decisions that you are convinced will be produced or perhaps (if you were honest) 'you are hopeful will appear in the same sequence you pulled from statistics', etc. 

This lady Marcia Clark on her new TV show is obnoxious she was obnoxious when she was prosecuting OJ Simpson and she's even more obnoxious now. LORD she needs to get a decent haircut and get that brown thing taking off her lip. Can't watch this show no longer!

Quote from: Mathemagician on April 24, 2018, 10:08:13 AM
I'm not surprised MrGreen casino was recommended as their affiliate program offers up to 45% commission!
It appears that the more you lose the more the referrer gets.

By the way I'm still waiting for my Withdrawal from SuperiorCasino made on the 6th April !

So much for the quote from a Roulette30 member that said:
"We have searched long and hard to find this one. According to player's opinion and our own experiences, it is definitely the best .........."
What a load of rubbish !

Perhaps it should read "We have searched for casinos that pay us commission for introducing players"

Sharp eye!  Keep up the good work!

Pulling up to the office this morning, all the snow is gone except one little mound, this is the same mound that was about 8 to 10 foot high a few days ago!  The other picture from before the weekend is above:

[attach=1]

Looking out into my yard at the warehouse and the shop building

[attach=2]

Looking behind my offices, those are apple trees, my little boy loves to pick those apples when they grow out there!:

[attach=3]

Perfectly cooked set of pork chops with special cajun rub and some fresh onions after a long weekend of lots of work and some enjoyment, check this out.

[attach=2]

I have seen this many times especially in Atlantic City where I spent well over 20 years gambling you'll see somebody win a large amount of money one night or throughout a weekend and then you'll see them eventually during the next few weeks or months give it all back and then they'll ruin their life savings if they had any chasing it I've wrote about this. But then you see the person usually a male who was the gambler with a different female and of course she'll milk the male in many ways including taking most of the money and the money overrules their lif, it's the downfall of gambling no matter if it's winning $5,000 or $10,000 on a $500 buy-in or winning hundreds of thousands of dollars I've seen it and it's ruined many people successful life prior to gambling or along with gambling. It is the downfall of gambling, it is the bottom line however successful businesses do the exact same thing but don't get the notoriety that something like this gets that's published. Many people in successful businesses that rake in the money it ruins their life because they don't know how to handle it.  They abuse the 'quick wealth' as it so often happens,  they change their relationships the Money Rules them and that's the worst thing that can happen in any sudden onset of money, gambling or not.

Sadly, the guy will fall prey to gambling with limousines, large suits, etc., and buying in with larger and larger amounts of money. They figure winning $500,000, they can win 5 million or 50 million.  Out of 100 people that do this 99 will give it back if not 99.9 out of 1,000, there's a slight chance one person out of thousands will actually stop gambling or keep it and invest it in a business and improve their life but it just does not happen in real life it happens in message boards and fallacies and people talking when they win the money. But the realty is winning convinces the gambler to try larger and larger and larger amounts and the worst thing you can do is be successful at first without having any experience, it's a sad case and it always will be.

I wrote about it on the board a couple times.I knew this gentleman from North Jersey Shore who had three very successful multi-million-dollar restaurants and a 5000 square foot front Oceanfront house and a beautiful family and beautiful cars and he won I believe it was slightly over $300,000 playing baccarat one night at Bally's Grand. During the next seven or eight months he ruined his entire life and sold off all his assets to keep chasing the win that he gave back, for larger and larger amounts that never came. So sad these stories and I've seen possibly three maybe four of them myself and I knew the people, complete devastation.

Quote from: NewsBot on April 20, 2018, 12:00:32 PM
Italy rolls out self-exclusion scheme

<div class="field field-name-post-date field-type-ds field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">17 April 2018</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-title"><h2><a href="/news/italy-rolls-out-self-exclusion-scheme">Italy rolls out self-exclusion scheme</a></h2></div><div class="field field-name-field-image"><a href="/news/italy-rolls-out-self-exclusion-scheme"><img typeof="foaf:Image" src="http://www.igamingbusiness.com/sites/igamingbusiness.com/files/styles/145x122/public/Italy_Tower%20of%20Pisa.jpeg?itok=KEFVjwBM" width="145" height="122" alt="" /></a></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even" property="content:encoded"><p>The Italian regulator has launched a new programme for consumers wanting to exclude themselves from gambling activities</p><br />
</div></div></div>

Source: Italy rolls out self-exclusion scheme

Yep. kind of what I thought.  Italy on a self exclusion presentation.  Kind of like saying no more organized crime, no more pasta, no more hillside villages with buckets being lowered to the street--put the cash in--get the bucket lowered back down with whatever it was you wanted and paid for.  LOL.

Nike,

There is a time to win and a time to stop playing.  As well, there is a time not to go to the casino.  I am talking about playing to win and not social or recreational gambling, etc.

You have to be fully conscious, concentrate and have the correct frame-of-mind, in order to have a fair shot against the shoe beating you. 
IMO and experience, it takes a while to understand all of that and have the proper vision to win, that is--when you can win.

Quote from: mb201333 on April 18, 2018, 04:20:31 PM
It has been my experience that the most difficult thing in a casino is to find a way to really and truly reset and clear your mind.  When I am not
at the tables is seems so clear and simple.  Every time I look back and replay in my mind,  I can't believe how easily I let myself be distracted

You are 100% correct, so few will ever realize or come to terms with.  I finally did about 10 years ago, but refine and define continually and I am close to being the 'near perfect' baccarat player.  (Boy, I know that sounds so obnoxious and so over-confident and extremely wrong, but I have really done it). I think, I have only lost control 2 or 3 times in the past several years out of hundreds and hundreds of live casino sessions. 

The only reason I posted about my buddy, was awareness and maybe it can save one person from going the wrong way, that is---the way 99 out of 100 baccarat players really do go.

REALITY----------------REALITY-------------REALITY

H-Money is well over $70.000.00 down on his savings.  It was not a bank roll.  He used to have a set-aside amount, about $5,000.00 for playing, which in all essence was his bank roll, of sorts.  I say of sorts, because he used to do as I do.  Win and replace and use his win money for other things.  Not, having a $100k + bank roll, gamble all the time, live off of it and increase and plateau level climb and all that stuff.  He used to go to the casino once a week, maybe two times, play reasonable, win and leave and replace the buy in, if lose then when he wins--replace, etc.  But he made far greater money--outside the casino in his own small business.  He saved well over $100k the past years.  He somehow--against everything i ever told him, begged him and taught him--used that money as a bankroll with the idea he would double it or triple it, whatever.  He started to loses I tried to outline within this post from his texts and my witnessing as well.  All for your knowledge and info and alerting you guys to what can and will happen with baccarat, etc.

He used his available funds to gamble with to chase his losses with, while he functioned with the wrong, frame-of-mind.  Simple.  Reality. 

Well he is out of control and I am at wits end.  He will not listen and he still talks about getting back his money and even making money from the casino.  He has convinced himself all he needs to do, is not pay attention to anyone, and just bang it out.  Oh well.