BetSelection and a more detailed explanation of posting guidelines and the 'aura' of the board:

We do not seek constant 'Needling' and 'Negativity' by members towards other members.  Provoking or annoying someone on a repetitive basis by especially the continual criticism or questioning, taunting, pestering, harassing, prodding, teasing, grouping up of 2-3-4 members and ganging up with the same come back/statement/questions towards another----will not be tolerated, not what we are about and is not what the highest bulk majority of those here seek. 

You can also add, "insinuation by proxy" which for those of you, that say what the heck is that?  Well, that is a slick wording of an insult, the turning around another member's words, or the covert wording of a derogatory and negative statement meant to provoke and prod the others, simple.  Not hard to figure out after a few continually engage with that on a regular and consistent basis. 

No need to taunt, pester, harasses any member here, if you don't enjoy, find interesting, learn and engage with them in a positive or a neutral way, skip their content.  If you disagree, post such and move on.  Do not continue the type of provocation and insulting remarks I mentioned above.  It will not be tolerated.

For those of you that desire to be disrespectful, cuss at and label the Admin/Moderators or Regular and Steady Members, demeaning and negative terms---I suggest you go do it to Keith, Sonya, Mike, or any of the others and see how long you last without a complete ban on their boards, as well as having your IP address blocked from even signing on their websites.

Quote from: esoito on June 16, 2018, 10:46:30 PM
A good question.  I've often wondered about that.

So come on, Mike. Rise to the occasion. It's not like you to remain silent!

Doesn't look like he will answer and he will not lie, as he is an honest poster.   Maybe, just maybe  he will probably come on and invoke the 5th amendment even though he is not from the USA.  That way he doesn't have to lie.   A great way out!

And Mike's 2 buddies here, Jimske and Soxfan we already have their answers, real casinos with huge infinite bankrolls, no details but always win with exact percentiles always quoted and claimed.  No peanuts and warm Irish beer needed, same lines. Same answers!! 

I'm very tempted to go through my phone and post one thread of scoreboards, tables, chips and cash-outs, I don't know why but I love them pictures.

Also, a question for Mike. 

Do you actually gamble in a B&M Casino?

Or, are you a mathematical teacher in a public or private school that is exercising his knoweldge here and attempting to apply it to gambling for the sake of engagement?

As you well know, I am more of a hands on type of guy and I would like to see and hear about some of your actual applications of your math skills and beliefs to casino action, if you actually do engage in that.

Just curious.  Thanks.

I found this on the board:


"I think "scammer" is too strong a word here. Looking at VRSEDGE's web site it seems that he's selling software tools which enable users to create their own systems based on parameters built into the platforms. There are no claims or guarantees that anyone will definitely win by using them. He is not selling a system or systems and claiming that they are infallible.

But since the forum has a new owner, perhaps a review of the rules regarding advertising and/or selling might be in order? There are several members doing this, including Gizmotron who is now looking for more students. I quote : "PM me if you want private tutoring." -- Gizmotron. (https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/for-those-who-think-house-edge-or-negative-expectation-is-the-sole-culprit/msg63571/#msg63571) "

And it was posted by 'Mike'.  He has the same thing or variations of it posted in about 3 member's threads, Vrsedge's, Albalaha's and Gizmo's. 

I will clarify.  Refer to the Board's Rule #6 please.  More specifically, just a few words within that you in particular need to focus on, understand and absorb.  Here, I will make it a tad bit easier for you:

"No sales or published links of any kind to any commercial cause/website/program or item, without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators.

No direct selling or linking to a member's or member's affiliate of any kind without the express permission of the Board Moderators or the Administrators. "

As well: I posted yesterday the following;

Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

We all have seen on this board as well as numerous other boards of all kinds, the new or relatively new sign up member, comes on and greets everyone and immediately begins posting links to other sites of all types and then into direct sales.  Or, a variation where he will possibly accomplish 3 or 5 or even 10 posts and then enter into the same thing.  They usually do not do the latter because it takes time to do, even 30 mins of posting over a few days is way too much for these types.  A perfect example was that so-called gambling book author we had last year on this board.  But there are thousands of scammers, systems sellers, website gambling affiliates, etc.,  Those are the ones that are not allowed, will be axed and deleted as soon as they post. 

As I said, known members are viewed in a different light.  This is not an endorsement of their product or service, it is merely allowing them to express themselves, refer to their business or sideline, and allow them to use this board as a vehicle in a subtle way--even if it entails a commercial venture on their behalf.  However, it is no different than a shopping mall with a merchant that rents space from the mall.  The mall is not responsible for the content or the merchant's actions.  However, if the merchant is fraudulent or present himself in a non-professional way and becomes a liability for the mall, the mall can and will terminate his lease because he did not act within standard business and community practices.  Same here.  End of story.

Now, that should be enough and fully explains, 'what is what'.

This is hands down, the most comprehensive, technical, and best book about the subject, IMO.  It is also filled with great 'side-info' of sorts that can and will open many doors for those of you that are not 'super-math/statistical' freak-a-schizoids.

Title:  "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic
Author:  Richard A. Epstein
Publisher:  Academic Press
First Edition:  1977
Revised Edition:  1995

I did not read the whole thing, but I had this on my list of publications to get for a very long time.  I finally got one used off of Amazon.  The book is in many ways above my head and level, but there are many interesting and useful things within it, that I do not regret getting in in anyway!  I should have got it a long time ago. 

Great reference tool beyond a doubt.  I would have to say it has almost all aspects covered. 

Chapters

1)  Kubeiagenesis
2)  Mathematical Preliminaries
3)  Fundamental Principals of a Theory of Gambling
4)  Coins, Wheels and Oddments
5)  Coups and Games with Dice
6)  The play of the Cards
7)  Blackjack
8   Contract Bridge
9)  Weighted Statistical Logic and Statistical Games
10) Games of Pure Skill and Competitive Computers
11)  Fallacies and Sophistries
Epilogue
Appendix Tables
Author Index
Subject Index



For Example in Chapter #3)  While technical like a lot of the book, there is great stuff that can lead a player down research paths that will certainly open doors into, 'insight', as I see it, IMO.

Lots and lots of references as well.  For someone that really gets into reading and researching anything, this is worth its weight in gold with ton of references and other publications, articles and works relating to gambling and casinos.

All the technical math/stats and gaming terms, lots of authors, tons of charts and explanations of those and the equations in 'almost' simplistic ways.  While geared towards more of the factual end of most everything, IMO--it is unbiased and years of research and writ combined. 

I cannot see how any serious player would not get this book for $30.00 or under.

Pictures of the Book:

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There is a section and relation to 'Guessing' as well with the author using 'Zener Cards', if you dot know what Zener cards are, we used them in college if I recall.  Goggle them. 

"Zener cards are cards used to conduct experiments for extrasensory perception (ESP) or clairvoyance. Perceptual psychologist Karl Zener (1903–1964) designed the cards in the early 1930s for experiments conducted with his colleague, parapsychologist J. B. Rhine (1895–1980). The original series of experiments have been discredited and replication has proved elusive."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zener_cards

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Link to preview on Amazon:

https://www.amazon.com/Theory-Gambling-Statistical-Logic-Revised/dp/012240761X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1529161074&sr=8-1&keywords=gambling+and+statistical+book#reader_012240761X

You know, on a side-ways affiliated note to education/training/workshops.  I have a wall full of certificates, completion awards and also certificates of achievement, all related to mostly paid courses of one type or another.  Benefiting off of any or all of them would solely depend on one's ability to use--translate--pick & choose--find areas of concern and interest to your needs, etc., then expanding your knoweldge with what was taught/instructed/brought to light, etc. 

If you cannot do something along those lines, you can sit in any university and stay there for 4 or 8 years, learn and become 'book-smart' and get a degree and yet--some high school kids might be able to our perform and out think you every day of the week in a certain profession.  Maybe those high school ks will not know advance trigonometry or calculus or some history of a great 1600's world leader or other university level items, but that does not preclude those high school kids from actually knowing more and performing better than the 4 or 8 year university graduate that sat there and learned, but failed to apply and use the bulk of what was taught to actually bridge the gap between 'schooling/education' and real-world application and interfacing with profession/career, etc. 

Same with gaming/gambling/casinos/seminars/training.  What Mark has to offer might open a path, that would allow someone to actually discover something he was unable to even recognize actually exists or is needed to formulate something that might very well help him be profitable or more profitable.  Mark might not teach in verbatim, 'how to win'--he might just be able to offer some smart player that is searching for ways to explore the roads, where the roads are, what are the roads, etc., to be profitable or more profitable?  Maybe, huh?

Oh and by the way read rule number 6 it specifically says, without the express permission of the moderators or the administration of this board. And Mark has my permission.

Known members versus unknown members things are taking into a Different Light.

As far as selling something, a known member that's a real person, that has history here if that's what he does for a living or a legitimate sideline and he is known and has as a decent reputation along with that of his product, without giving an endorsement on behalf of the board, that's one story.  To me that's acceptable no matter who the member is.

Now if it's a person that signs on with no history or a few posts and all of a sudden he's selling some type of product or service and he never introduced himself and I don't know who he is and no references, entirely different picture and that is what's clearly not allowed.

And don't bring it where it's selective but it's an overall picture as to if it's a reputable member or an unknown member that's a possible scam. And again my board does not endorse any commercial product. And if I do endorse something, it means that I personally checked it out and I believe in it and I've done more research rather than just making sure the person is a reputable person and those are going to be few and far in-between, meaning the endorsements of commercial products or services on this board.

Thank you that should answer your question or concern.

 
"Re: For those who think house edge or negative expectation is the sole culprit
« Reply #75 on: Yesterday at 02:10:42 AM »


Every bet will get this much variance for sure, in the long run. People seems to miss even a remedy for this.

If I say, there will be 500 wins of a number in 18500 spins and we can not get the scatter of the wins, most of the intelligent players around here will have a soar throat beating just that. If the number of win lessens to 450, they will lose thousands of chips and might be only losing all over. I have seen this clearly in my #3 challenge on zumma book. "
***********************************************************************************************************

I might be wrong, but I will take a min and run the numbers real quick.  This is why I am against 'the mathematical statistics' of any game.  Sure they are correct, but they are, and 100% dependent upon the long run as well.  Following a math or stat reasoning on a table game,  You might get some positive hits or even the once-in-a-while 'win' produced ration to losses, but what do you have to risk to get Point 'B' from within 'Point A'?

Point 'A'----The series referred to;

Point 'B'----The 'win' from the series.

Every game has been attack by the math and statistical pros from the classroom aspect.  They ran millions and billions of hands to find out, 'what happens'.  Fine.  Not wrong.  But cannot be applied in any real—shape and form, to give the player a 'real and definitive' edge. 

Why, simply because of what I just did.  Again, it might be wrong, but whatever.

500 Wins/18,500 Spins. 
2 Mins. Average a spin (in real life casinos) not on the computer of course.
2 Mins. Translates to 120 seconds.
That translates to 2,220,000 seconds
3,600 seconds in 1 hour.
To spin and play 18,500 spins to be assured (if math will assure every series, every time those wins) it would take 616 to 617 hours to play that series of spins.

Okay, Superman, lots of energy drinks and coffee, etc.  He plays it.  Stay there and plays straight through the 616-617 hours.  You cannot stop, walk away and continue later, like so many math/stat freaks think, because the 'series' will be gone—not the same one, etc.

Okay, back.  Straight through.  Superman (the math/stat freak believer) hires numerous people to play the 25 to 26 days straight. 

One unit, $25.00, one green chip.  Say the 500 wins are going to be straight up number, 1 unit yields 35 chips/units payout.  He would win, $25.00 X's 35, equals $875.00. POINT B: He wins a total of $437,500.00 on the 500 wins.  Likewise, 18,500 spins, minus the 500 wins, leaves 18,000 lost spins on that number.  18,000 times $25.00 chip that was lost to the casino. POINT A: He losses a total of $450.000.00.  Great. 

Every math/stat results would have to be played from the start to the end, to realize the math produced result, no? 

Or is there a way to sprinkle a bit of magical dust, somewhere along the way—during those series?

As Mark Twain said....."It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so".

I wrote it back in February.

IMO, Variance really does mean volatility and variability.

That is where a complete clear vision, 100% consciousnesses, correct frame-of-mind, and all the other psych things in order and really in-tune to, will allow you to capitalize very nicely on any opportunities that present themselves.

Nudge--Bump.

Pretty good topic, fits along with many things thrown out into the limelight recently around here.....

Little 'King' at an Asian Restaurant.  Have you ever seen a pizza delivery to an Asian restaurant before?  My little king eating pizza at his mom's restaurant, at the counter, doing his thing! 

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https://betselection.cc/math-statistics/situational-awareness/msg63604/?PHPSESSID=7cs392thf2v9bonuoooctfb381#msg63604

Situation Awareness.

And, yes variables do change within the course of gaming/gambling as well as changing within the course of a shoe, etc.  Most certainly

Worth reading, understanding and exploring, for those that really desire to understand what is possible and how you should approach casino gambling as well, IMO.  And, variables do change within the course of casino play, within the course of a baccarat shoe, within the course of spinning the roulette ball during a period of time, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situation_awareness

The article and others like it are great 'base' research and informational basics for players that truly want the understanding how the risk in the gaming business depends on certain things and length of play. desire to research, read, understand and use something in their own defense, etc.

Here is a few words as to what I am referring about, "Risk in the gaming business depends on the house advantage, standard deviation, bet size, and length of play".

In my own play, at least since 2000 and after, I attempt to stay 100% fully consciousness of 'length of play'.  Good Lord, do I know the down side of 4 hours or more or anything close to that, but a $10k or $20k win in the first hour or even 30 minuets, is extremely hard to walk to the cashier, cash out and leave.  But, once you truly understand casino mathematics, you can use them to your own advantage. 

Casino mathematics in no way shape or form, translates to every player will lose 'XYZ'% religiously, etc.  It means, if you play what the casino sets as "average bet, bet size, and length of play with whatever hold percentage they use", that will generally translate to what you should lose if you play 4 hours or greater a day.  Not what you have to lose or are certainly going to lose.  Likewise, you might, and as well-you might not. 

That is why virtually every comp is based upon '4 hours' of play being inserted with the other parameters.  Unless a floor person or host hand writes the comp based upon your known play and history, etc., at the property.