Quote from: AsymBacGuy on October 16, 2017, 12:56:13 AM
An entire shoe producing all B-P chops (even discounting ties) is impossible to believe.
Even admitting 30 ties, the probability to get 50 BP chopped hands represents a more than 7 sr deviation, that is the same probability to get a 50 hands streak.

In the history of roulette and baccarat there are no records of such values. 
(roulette records known= 42 blacks and 41 chopping hands)

If this should be true, it's an additional proof that baccarat tends to get the opposite outcome of the last happened. As bac streaks of 50 never happened.   

as.

'As', I put it over my kids.  I witnessed this one time in Atlantic City at the high limit room large Bac tables. Every single hand from start to finish with some ties.  And there was not 30 ties, I don't believe there was more than 12 or so ties, about average.  Your choice whether to believe me or not.

I also seen a shoe with zero ties, none.  Plenty with 2 or 3 ties, I think 1 or 2 with one tie (maybe), but one shoe with zero ties.

And as I said, one shoe of all doubles with a 3 in a row around the middle of the shoe somewhere, plus ties. 

Likewise and of the same importance would be all the countless shoes with no streaks, no Fortune 7's, etc., as well as the numerous shoes with all clusters of super strong formations, or 5, 6 or 7 Fortune 7's within 10-14 hands or so, and shoes with better than 20 ties, etc., etc. 

Like I have always said, play long enough and see everything.  Then when something else happens, you even tend to get that 'newbie'"OMG I can't believe what just happened" type of feeling.  LOL. 

I have witnessed several times over the years, streaks for both the Bankers and the Players ranging in the high 20's, like, 27-29 times.  I have heard from a handful of dealers about streaks in the high 30's as well.  Hard to believe, but I know they did happen.

So, are you Louis Tully or are you Vinz Clortho? Level with us.

Nothing really changes the highest majority of the time. 

Doctor Venkman proved that back in 1984 with electro shocks that,  negative reinforcement does affect most of us. 

So. A lot of brew haha!!  What the hell is the prediction now for today?

Like I said, an old Chinese man told me!!!!

Like some pointing to the score board with tons of conviction,  LOL.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on October 15, 2017, 01:45:08 PM
Thank you Victor, may your path be a victorious one as your name suggests.

I'd like to clarify about my 3 aforementioned methods, they are a solid base but not exactly what I'm using now, parameters left out intentionally.
As they are, they will win most of the times, yet better than many others.
As a matter of fact the complete solution is a combination of them, from which and to what proportion of each I'm leaving it to your judgement.

And in reality as well as IMO, one of the most honest statements ever made in the field of systems, etc. 

Probably the same ideas and experiences I have found in real BAC play, like I have tried to define???  Reference the agenda and reasons why events happen or don't happen, even more so why we wager for or against them. 

Same here Vic!  I could not find a button or a credit card/debit card payment button.  I do not do PayPal in the classical sens the way we used to, i can only do it like they do on Ebay or Amazon, using a regular credit card/debit card, I gave up my PayPal account years ago......

An old Chinese man gave me the answer to the question here.

And that answer was.......................................

"I Zont Zink Zo", with a heavy accent. 

The 5th paragraph down is:

"The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends—that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money."

If you do not believe it--you will when you play the game long enough, IMO and IMO very strongly!

The bottom line---There are no set rules for 'something' to happen or not happen.  And, that very 'something' might or might not appear.

Those players that are there and pointing to the score board and verbally citing why something is or is not going to happen are the most out of tune and out of place--players I have ever witnessed.  However, I do understand with certain reasoning and certain selectivity--but not on the, almost every hand or every few hands regularity all these players have.  Bottom line--There are always exceptions and irregularities in defining sections and turning points of the shoe presentment that is occurring.   

"Randomness and bias—produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casino's greatest friend and the players worst nightmare."

And on a side note as been mentioned before, the single best thing the casinos did was install the score board.  That has to be the single largest income helper for the casino in the game since they had the game of baccarat. 

One great (REALLY GREAT) thing about Amazon is they generally will stand behind the products they sell or their advertisers sell through them.  I have never returned a book, however--I have a couple of times returned other items for reasons of 'non satisfaction' or 'not up to what it was advertised' to be, etc.  never a peep from Amazon, instant refund.   

On a side note.

I went back over this and re-read it.  I missed this one thing:

" You use a plethora of words strategically placed creating the illusion that you are some authority on the subject that you are authoring."

If that is what you believe, fine.  That is your assumption and deduction.  However, fact is--I know more than some and not as much as others, perhaps?

And, " I for one am a state certified teacher and write for a living.  I can read through your lines of "BS"."

As far as writing for a living, I do not, you might--I do not.  You have your opinions and your vision of what I am and what I think, but those thoughts and visions are from you, not myself. 

My personalty and my experience is what it is.  My background in years of owning and running an illegal business in New York City as well as gambling for several decades in Atlantic City which at the time all the people in the high limit rooms seldom were found with their heads down in their hands in a somber and depressed state as so many find themselves in Vegas for example, tend to stay with me in an ingrained personalty.  So again, since you labeled my writing as well as myself "BS", why even the communication, supposedly you have nothing to prove.  Unless someone or some people put you up to it??

Quote from: CT on October 10, 2017, 06:23:33 PM
   I am a member of one of those forums that you are referring to.  Let's set the record straight, you first become a member of that forum and all you contributed was a cut-and-paste version of what you put on here.  I for one am a state certified teacher and write for a living.  I can read through your lines of "BS".  You use a plethora of words strategically placed creating the illusion that you are some authority on the subject that you are authoring.  You can summarize all your "War and Peace" in two or three lines but the two or three lines doesn't create the illusion.  It is commonly referred as "Succinct Writing", look it up and one day you may save people some time so they don't have to wade through the BS.  Also, to set the record straight, you stated that you wrote this knowing that some members read this blog.  Know this, you didn't bait me into anything.  I think that you and I are alike.  We both can't leave things alone.  I have never even heard of this blog although I am sure it is very good. ( Correct, I did join another forum as you state.  Correct, I did cut and paste from my writing on this forum.  I am under no impression that was illegal, immoral, unethical or against any rules or regulations.  I thought, honestly it was a way to introduce myself and offer something. I was in no competition or frame-of-mind to outdo anyone or compete in anyway.  If you can read through my writing and label it BS, all fine, I have said many times, "If you don't like someone, enjoy their writing, feel you can profit something from them, think you can learn something from them, why even read it--leave it alone and move on.  Unless they are challenging something you wrote or something you are connected to.  I don't believe I was challenge anything or anybody.  Your co-members came on and denounce, degraded and attempted humiliation like young children.  Period.   I choose not to associate myself with your board and desired my posts removed for personal reasons I rather not go into, reasons that i have facts and evidence of wrong doing and unethical type of things by certain people.)

   When a few of the members of that forum either knew of you or read between the lines they called you on it.  One of the members simply made a comment that there is no one in the forum that advocates chasing their bets after your LONG AND BORING thread suggesting not to chase their bets (BTW, Great advice).  You then replied that you're services were not appreciated and you said you were going to take your toys and go home.  You then picked a fight with several members of the forum one day after the Las Vegas Shooting and made some sarcastic remarks about suggesting one of the members join the LVPD to help with their investigation.  One of the members called you out on that and you showed no remorse.  Obviously this forum is not enough for you because when the owner of the forum banned you, you decided to try to join the forum under several different aliases WITH THE SAME IP ADDRESS (Total amateurish move).

(I choose to leave and 'go home' as you said for the reasons I stated above.  In my mind I did not pick a fight.  They did, might have threw my 2 cents in, right or wrong, but they did legitimately start it in every way.  As far as the LVPD/Vegas comment, I simply told them, since they are so smart and can figure everything out without evidence and all that, go join the LVPD investigation and put their great investigatory experience to good use.  I in no way demeaned or humiliated anything or anyone with the Vegas events.  BTW, i lived through the 9-11 event being less than 7 air miles away when it happened with a business and extended family.  Numerous members of my family and friends lost their lives, many NYFD in my family, etc.  I never ever said anything that disrespected what happened i Vegas, never.  You insinuate I did and that in-itself is dead wrong. As far as joining or re-joining your forum under fake names, etc., I did not.  Just possibly, never thought of, someone in my employ also follows me on the boards and joined using the same IP address as we share the same location.  i do have someone here in my employment that plays the past several years and I would suspect he joined.  I seriously said what had to and when I was banned t was my end.  I thought I made that clear on the board itself.)

   The forum that you are referring to has tons of quality players (Including me) that are playing for a living and making a lot of money.  A few years ago this forum you are referring to got rid of the pompous, self-ordained Baccarat Messiah and they didn't want to welcome in another one.   (As far as that, maybe-very possible, could be, I never said it did not and if i did--that statement came out of retaliatory NYC type of language I can only assume).

   In closing, I would love to play Baccarat with you.  Let me know where you play and I will meet you.  I wouldn't mind talking about the game with you.  You obviously have a lot of knowledge and you have a craving to share it and FOR THAT you have garnered my respect.  What you need to do is check your ego at the door and realize that there are people that know just as much as you if not more.  You also shouldn't be so easily miffed if people call you on something.     

(As far as playing baccarat together, maybe-I play in the Midwest on a local basis.  I play in Vegas, Southern California and at times on the east coast where I am from.  I seriously don't know why you would really, I am pompous, a jerk off, a little kid that grabs my toys and runs home, I only know things all you and your co-members have forgotten, etc., etc., and so on.   As far as the ego, at times yes and just possibly that is because  where I am from as well as the type of business I am in.  But hey, it is what it is.  When I feel strongly about something or other people, there is usually a very personal reason or other factual basis to it, more than "Oh I heard so and so say such and such on the board", etc., etc.  And, I seldom go on and demean and humiliate someone because I forgot everything they are writing about or I do not just plain endorse them or care for them to be on a message board, etc.  I have said, a very busy and interactive classroom is much better than a boring one where the teacher is reading everything out of a textbook and the students all have their heads down in their hands the entire class period. 

As far as the person are probably referring to, I was also blasted because  I play with black chips at best and they play with purples and yellows.  I have news for you, in Vegas I am a yellow, chocolate, and flag or better player without flaunting or exploiting it anyways, but that is all the nonsense you guys seem to get in over where you are talking about all this happened.  People do not know everything they are saying and swearing up and down it is the truth or acting like it is and yet--others believe and repeat what they hear through the grape vine.)

We can just leave it at this--your board has the best and most experienced baccarat players that simply know everything about the game and they win tons and tons of money.  They really do not need any interfacing with myself because  I know basically only what they forgot and also---all of my writing is complete BS.  But I do thank you for your visit here and your kind thoughts you relayed.  As far as my blog, I will save you a whole lot of time, trouble and effort, don't read anything because it is all worthless and succinct.

If you really think we should talk, you can always PM me here and leave your phone number.  I have nothing to hide and we might enjoy a real conversation??   

So much of the problem IMO, really comes from some message board  members that believe they really do know everything while they have played at a casino or two or three and played for a total of a few years or even five years or so.  They have little outside of the casino and their entire lifestyle is the casino and the message board, possibly some have an exciting evening at the WaWa or 7/11 or SuperAmerica or Holiday or the almighty famous Kum&Go, etc. 

Quote from: esoito on July 25, 2017, 11:58:21 PM


Now I haven't told you before about all my degrees, have I? I'm currently working on my PhD thesis which is loosely titled The Sociology of Forums And The Role Of Common Sense.

Esoito,

Am I included in your PhD thesis? 

Magician,

I do appreciate your kind words, honest and thoughtful.  Thanks.

Mostly it was directed to some people in the other gambling boards, some I have met and some I have not.  They seem to be bored and thrive on their degradation and humiliation when they have the urge for confrontation.  For whatever reasons.  Some might claim that it bothers me, however, it really does not.  You have to understand my background, my upbringing, the huge confrontation business I was in in New York City for many years and my family, etc.  If I could survive all that and take most of it with a grain of salt, I certainly can get laughter and a comical kick or two from the message boards, LOL!

Yes, there was a few here and still are around, let's just say they really contribute 'next to nothing or nothing at all'.  With that said, all types of people, productive and contributing, neutral and on the side lines and those that are counter productive-negative and dismal type of people.  They are here and on all other boards of course. 

A couple of people come to mind, for the reason I wrote the OP here.   I will not say whom or where they frequent, however, they do read this board.  For myself, I have always been (at least most of the time) of the mind frame, if you don't enjoy or like or side with someone--just skip it, leave it alone.  The exact same as a book in the library or bookstore.  If you don't like the author, are you going to purchase or check out and read it???  Same-same, no different with the message boards, IMO. 

I don't have to approve of you or anyone else to be a member here or any where else on other boards.  I have always said, a busy and interactive classroom sure beats the dull, boring class with the students falling asleep and the teacher reading his lesson from some textbook with his head never looking up.  But, with some boards they have to rule them and keep them in check, members with extreme knoweldge, background and experience are not generally accepted or conversed with because  they somehow threaten the agenda and the 'known members' of the board, etc.

The other thing is how a member that supposedly knows everything about baccarat that claims he forgot much of what people such as myself write about, associated with and looked up to (with praise, plans and constructive daily agenda) another person in the gambling/message board field that literally lost hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars and then drew over a half millions dollars on Las Vegas credit lines and lost all that as well.  Then that person drops out of the scene of course and the other person I am referring to is still 'hog-wild' and respected, all fine--no problem, he didn't mess up.  However, he did because  of his previous endorsements, written agenda and denouncements of those that challenged the person that self destructed.  What I am saying is, why can some flip-flop on their endorsement, their so called gambling friends and idols, their buddies, their side-kicks???   Then that person remains like he never knew the imploded person that most looked up to and most wanted to be, while I stood back and only mentioned what was going to happen while it was all in the end phase, the implosion phase for sake of explanation.  Now the person runs around that did not implode and acts like he never associated with or had anything to do with the person that was a Doctor Jeckel-Mr Hyde sort of person. 

Here let me spell it out.  Oh, I am so great and I found this special holy-grail and I live the high life in Las Vegas and elsewhere for a period of time.  I know everything and everyone follow me and here is why.  All of my comrades and wanna-bees will protect me and we are allowed to talk down to you and since I am the boss, no one can challenge me.  FAST FORWARD a bit now.

That person losses everything and I mean everything and faces prison.  Okay.  the other person that was one of numerous side-kicks that endorsed and sided with the imploded 'professor', suddenly moves on.  Wouldn't be so bad if he just moved on.  But he finds another home within the industry and still comes off with his speeches, dialogs, rants and degrading posts with total absence of what he stood for just a short bit ago.  I guess what I am saying is you said there was only one baseball team that is a real baseball team and then they lose and implode.  I told you all along that they were no good and the reasons why and all you saw was the girls in their crotch length skirts with their thong outlines hanging outside the locker room waiting to get a glimpse of those players leaving.  And you had a buddy on that team that allowed you in the locker room to pick up the dirty jock straps when the players took showers.  Your reward for doing just that was, you were allowed to walk out of the locker room with your so-called friend.  But now the team is totally disbanded and you deny picking up jock straps. 

Myself, i never really changed, IMO.  I am what I am and I know what I have experienced and done.  My only mistake here on this board as well as others, is I used humor, comical skits such as Saturday Night Live satire, etc., etc., that many did not understand or was twisted and turned against myself.  I explained this before, when the long post I had going on this board about 'Systems', etc., went haywire with confusion.  Maybe it is like 'The Magician' says, those that oppose with great gusto might have Oppositional Defiant Disorder??

The other thing, that I do believe goes along with this--is each of our positions and daily agendas.  I have a career-business outside of the casino, kids and some other interests.  I do not sit, waiting to gamble, write a bit on this board and sleep.  Sorry, and nothing wrong with any of our lifestyles, but some have mentioned and while some actually live it and other might or might not, gambling and writing on the internet is not the only thing in my life.  I do write and write quite a bit at times, usually it is while I have everything else completed and finished and I am in front of a computer because  I have to be for other commercial reasons.  However, numerous people have mentioned how I only gamble part time and write full time.  Well that is the furthest thing from the truth, they have no factual knoweldge and they do not know me personally and have never been around myself, they just talk to hear themselves talk.  IMO, those claiming that, are just the types I mentioned, nothing else in their lives except the casino when they have the funds and their internet message board. 

Quote from: Newnicky7 on October 10, 2017, 07:43:07 AM
I do not watch TV at all ) There are much more interesting things around us to do !

OMG!  TV?  You mean everyone does not watch 'All in the Family' or the opposite racism of the 70's with 'The Jefferson's'?  Or, 'Kojak'?  Or, the coolest and smartest detective ever 'Columbo'?  'The Dukes of Hazard' or 'Mannix'  The original Batman or the Flintstones??

Now we have 'Live PD' where you can actually witness the drunken people driving swearing over God they never had a drink--well, some them might admit they had one.  Or, the cracked out meth addicts stealing the items you and I bought our kids or family members.

Or, you can flip through the channels and buy a book or a DVD that will change your life forever, only 5 payments of $49.99 and you will make millions the first year, but for you and for today only, 3 payments of $39.99!!!

And in fact, there are numerous shows on TV where you can watch to make notes on your next tattoo or place you want to get your face, nose or ears pieced and insert something 25 times the size of a normal metal stud or earring, etc. 

You know, talking to someone over the weekend, we came on the subject about a few other message boards.  Some come quickly to mind and others, without mentioning their names--are always there.  They accomplish most nothing and are actually just 'repeaters' of most others written words or they ponder about them for a bit and then twist them--go back to their group of so called friends and boast themselves up as well as their board. 

Someone comes to mind and he is about the biggest piece of 'jerk butt' i ever met, gambled with and associated with for a year or two.  He boasted himself so high and then imploded with such 'big boom' it would make a nuclear explosion look dull.  He will probably wind up in prison and if not, he lost such substantial work and assets over gambling and publicity it is ludicrous!  But it is what it is.

And then there are the other naysayers and the readers of the boards that thrive on picking up a piece or two of what others write, twist it and put a little spin on it and post it to make you look bad or something of the likes.  Exactly what they are about--I really could not tell you, but there are numerous ones exactly like what I just described out there on the message boards.  I can only assume they are degen gamblers, lost most everything, have no real job and they are trying to be slick, kind of reminds me of OJ Simpson, actually.
 
Their accusations and their assumptions are idolized by a few within their little circles of 'new to the game' or 'slightly experienced', co-members within their own communities.  Cute, but they are totally worthless, contribute nothing and act like they are King Kong in a nursery school, banging on their chests that they just talked you down or got you banned from their stupid jerk-off community or they know everything you wrote about but forgot long ago.  But, they never write anything worth reading or feasible, nothing. 

With laughter, they actually entertain me to a certain point.  Don't get me wrong please!  I do understand that someone actually has to clean the public restrooms for a living.  That is what I compare them to if you really want to know.