QUESTION TO ME:

"Say you target streaks of 3s and 4s (or 2s and 3s or anything like that): when a superior streak happens (that is a 5+ streak) you have to reset the plan then waiting for new streak classes in the hope they'll come clustered (obviously singles and streaks of inferior lenght do not count).

Long streaks are relatively rare to happen, so it's likely that inferior streaks will come out clustered; sometimes (often) an entire shoe is formed by streaks not surpassing the 4 value.

Now we'll play with a 'sky's the limit' approach because the number of shoe rich of low value streaks overcome those rich of long streaks.
Sections!!!

It's a plan derived from what you've written in your posts."

MY ANSWER:

You say target. I do not 'generally' target in anything-except what the shoe is doing when presentments are forming with something I can detect and/or just plain feel good about placing a wager on. 

Streaks.  Yes-5/6 iar begins the streak, 1s, 2s, singles-chop, doubles, triples, quadruples are absolutely the most common with/within every shoe. Anyway, with that said......

I have a written about it before. I like to reiterate-as reiterating, reinforces!

Here Goes:

Long streaks 9-10-12-14, and more.  Certainly do happen. Posted many of them when I can snap a picture.  True not every session. But they certainly do. 7-8-9 iar, is almost common, not every shoe, but again not rare by any means at all.

I have adopted the, "It Is What It Is", play persona-protocol. Might not mean much to most, but helps on the frustration and emotions end with myself.

'Skys the limit'.  That has to be based/applied around your MMM and wagering win/risk chips already in your possession, or a small piece of your buy-in, etc.  But..........and However, when it happens you do want to be right there, on it, with a few positive progressive wins prior to the take off and then just pull down each win, only losing the last one when it does cut to the other side. 

Here is an example just below.  (I have attached 8 B&M score board pictures to reinforce what I am trying to get across).

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBB

Then:  P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBB

When it's like that or anything similar and you see one more two more iar forming, I sure want to be on it!  So many will risk wagering on/for the 'cut' again and again and get sucked into-the 'cut' has to come, etc. But......shoes do not operate that way. Shoes do everything  and anything, at anytime. Shoes are weak, clump strong, stay strong, weak and strong in distinct patterns, as well as spread out although-out the entire shoe, etc. Take that into consideration and being conscious of that, onward.

I have caught so many great longer streaks 7/8-10/15 + iar because of being on it when it went one more and then just continued iar repetitiously.  Then after a few positive progressions, I just enjoy pulling down each win and gladly surrendering the last one in the streak.

Ref 'One More' Mentioned In The Above Paragraph:

One More, as what I described above are 1s, 2s and 3s, and then a 4th was made. Or 1s and 2s, 3s and 4s and then a 5th was made, etc.  Just throwing a written explained picture out there.

You have to remember, you cannot control what the shoe is producing, but you can control the way you respond to what is happening, if you are conscious of it. So many players fail to practice what I just said the the previous sentence.  Why do I say that?  Because everything comes and goes in the game of baccarat and thus, confuses the highest of the highest amount of players.  What the shoe is producing, what the shoe has not produced, what the player desires, what they player believes in, what the reaction is by others present, etc., etc., etc., and many more. 

And you truly want to know something? When I have two really good options to choose from, I challenge myself to wager with the one that scares me the most.  (And I am not just referring to a B or P wager, might be a small or large wager, a flat Vs a pos progressive, a series of wagers, etc.  Because seriously, that is likely the one(s) that is/are going to help me grow. Re-read the paragraph I just wrote, think about it in detail!

I do not know, probably our methods of play are different, but I generally 'look for/wager with' whatever is happening.  Doesn't matter chop-chop, doubles, streaks, triples, 1s and 2s, etc. But I do look for those traditional streaks which are long repetitious iar Bankers followed by repetitious iar Players.

With all that said/laid out, let's go back to the above example:

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBB

Now let's say one of those 9 iar Bankers came along.  It would look something like this:

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBBBBBBB-P

(For example purposes, I was wagering $250.00 as a base risk wager)

Banker bet 1) $250 win $250. ($250 back to buy-in)

Banker bet 2) $250 From win. 

Banker bet 3) $500 Full parlay press from #2.

Banker bet 4) $1,000 Full parlay press from #3.
              $1k win pulled down.

Banker bet 5) $1,000 Pull down the $1k win.
             
Banker bet 6) $1,000 Win pressed to bet #7.         
Banker bet 7) $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet -8- $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet 9) $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet 10) $2,000 Lose as Cut to Players.

$8,000 won.  Initial $250 recouped after first wager. 

My reasoning is, if I was at least ahead the win of $250 after hand 1, hands 2 and 3 are on the casino, not affecting my buy-in at all. 

My reasoning regarding hand 4, pulling down the $1,000 all win money, I would have a complimentary 4 additional attempts on the casino to build out 4 wagers of $250 each.  That is playing a bit conservatively, we all agree it's tough after hand 4.  But a lot of the times, not all, I would stick with that wager amount. 

If that happened, I would set my buy-in sideways for hold. The $8,000 won, I would dedicate $2,000 to 8 additional $250 attempts. I would put $1,000 additional into my original buy-in (of $1,800-$2,500)and lock up, no double thoughts whatsoever, the $5,000 remaining from the win money.

Once again my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd (about) with win money. That is what I call a M.M.M.  It has to govern you. Not maybe, not possibly, but has to 100%.

Conclusion:

Adjust. Be totally conscious. Be super careful of desires, but don't forgo a trend-pattern-happening, etc., that is flowing and you see it or are capturing it easily. Most will say those are intangible events to be involved with, but they are not. To myself, they are tangible, but we just do not know when they will begin and end while we are in play at the table in front of a live shoe.

Eight attachments posted below from previous brick and mortar live shoes.

4th one down.  Note the 5B and the 5P next to each other in the beginning.  Then the 7 iar B, 6 iar B, the 5 iar B, the 4 iar B.  No one basically believed, most saying, "no way, players coming out next strong", over and over.  I did extra handsomely on all those  bankers!  Then the 4 players right next to the last 4 iar Bankers to match their 5 iar side-by-side in the beginning.  Note the extreme weakness for the rest of the shoe, all 1s and 2s. 

6th one down.  Classic and exactly what I was attempting to convey to you above.  WOW-O-WOW!  Beautiful!!!  Bang it on the 3rd winning one down with a nice parlay to the 4th hand. Then just pull down each winning payout. Stack one more time at least around the 7th or 8th hand and 'happily' lose the last one, when it cuts to the players. What's the problem?

7th one down.  The 9 iar Bankers, I gave in the example above, I have regularly experienced 8-12 iar, not rare at all IMO.  Yes, said countless times, not every shoe, but not in the rare department at all.  Anyways, here is a 9 iar with 3 5-iar Bs as well.  One players with 7 iar, but otherwise players 3 or less.

As you said:  "b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt."

And that is what can be so clear to one person, yet so fuzzy to another. 

Insights From My Experience:

BECOMING CONSCIOUS OF YOUR EXPERIENCE

Now, IMO, comes the hardest things to become habitual doing.

You have to break the habit of allowing yourself to automatically interpret every experience by believing, what happened-happened for a reason, (because within the game of baccarat, it simply does not). That is what turns off so many so quick and so ruthfully off. Period. Plain and Simple!

Interpret every experience by practicing anchoring your attention, your attention solidly within the instant experience.  Notice any physical sensations and emotions that are rising from yourself and observe the state of your mind. Is it racing, agitated, fuzzy, becoming emotional, or is it perfectly clear?

Become conscious of what you are feeling, because your feelings will not keep you consistent solid and profitable play.

RECOGNIZE YOUR GAME

Your conduct produces the result of your decisions. Those decisions will either generate losses or wins, simple. You have to remember you are the one that makes the decision if you win or lose.

Majority of baccarat players fall prey to what the game represents and how it is presented by most all casinos. Players become senseless, callous and outright stupid. There are no rhymes or reasons that could make sense for doing things that seemingly could never work.

Realize you cannot change what is going to happen with any shoe. When you genuinely do, then you accomplished what the highest majority of players take a very long time, as well as cost to realize. 

Look at the scoreboard and see what has happened, do not believe it will reappear or continue.  Dive much deeper into the possibilities of presentments happening for continued and upcoming hands. 

The bottom line is, being able to clearly see and focus using the game presentments and your recognition of the flow and outcomes that are being formed.

BRICKS YOU PLACE IN FRONT OF YOURSELF

Every single brick that you place on the wall in front of you-makes it harder to penetrate-makes it harder to profit-makes it harder to stay with the shoe presentments.

Information that is worthless and absolutely false in many senses, will be a brick YOU ALLOW to be inset into a wall in front of you-directly between you and every hand, every group of hands and every shoe you play itself.

When those bricks are there-they are there. No matter what, no matter how strange, weird, not ordinary, against all odds or how much you believe in them and how great they seem; They are bricks and will be there as well as remaining there.

Bricks are intangible. Same as systems, counts, data, mechanical wagering based on anything, charting, etc., etc.  Because none of it will allow guaranteed hand after hand wins. None.  In fact, none of it can even guarantee one for sure win. 

You know, but you really do not know. That's what you have to remember and be totally conscious of.

Merry Christmas to all!

Son just opened all his presents and he's got that ear-to-ear smile.  Stuffed from breakfast!  However, already looking forward to Christmas dinner!

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year coming and best of luck to all!

Alrelax
Administrator & Forum Owner

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 24, 2023, 10:13:11 PMThanks Al for your advice!
Actually I do not know much about MM as most of our bets are adhering to a flat betting scheme.

On the other end it's very likely that some pros do not adopt a FB approach, maybe increasing their bets (so risking an X bankroll fraction) at spots considered profitable.

As you sayed, for sure bac pros have learnt the attitude to be (almost) totally insensitive to the natural harsh losing sequences they're entitled to face sooner or later.
Easier sayed than done.

as.

PLEASE:  Take a few minutes and read the following thread.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.msg68512#msg68512

IMO, the single most important item that will bring advantages to pro bac play is a real M.M.M.  It will help curb emotions and frustrations that will build upon losses and add a defense to fallacy that will also set in upon winning.  But the player has to adhere to his method which isn't always easy.

I have written about M.M.M.'s in detail.  I know having one has helped me extensively.

Think about it. 

If you do not play, you cannot win.

If you play, you will not always win.

If you play, you also have to lose. 

If you claim you do not lose and/or you always recover and walk even or with a little win, I say you are lying. 

Simple and Period. 

You said:  "Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt."

But we know, anything can be a streak, or at least I do.  I do not (DO NOT) play/continuously wager for streaks of iar B or P, etc.  For myself, anything can be a streak.  Chop chops, doubles, triples, 1-2-3-4s-3-2-1s, 1s and 2s, plenty more, etc., etc. There are numerous presentations that appear in clumps with no justification. 

And while most all the bac players in B&Ms sit there, mouth physically opened, verbally saying WTF, etc., I am smacking the rack, hard and quick.  Not always, but plenty of sessions.  And that is where a Golden MMM schedule comes into play if adhered to with a solid 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd distribution.

I like it remember the following:  Opportunities in Baccarat are like sunsets, if we wait too long, we will absolutely miss them.  Each and every time.   

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 07:48:26 AMThis statement sounds as the pure proof that baccarat remains an EV- game, isn't it?

as.

Absolutely in every aspect, everyday, every version. 

But..................

Anything and everything happens.  And it all happens in order, out of order and in the unforeseen order.  Catching it and capitalizing on it is what we do, easy at times and nearly impossible to do sometimes as well.  I want to bang them and bang them hard and quick and get out of there. 

Unlike what so many believe, preach and swear by, the longer you stay at the tables, the more you play and/or employ the repetitive mechanical wagering beliefs, etc., will only add up to guaranteed loss. 

You said:  "In fact each outcome has a slight relationship with the previous results, very often not detectable but sometimes getting values capable to erase and invert the HE." 

I Say:  "Now, in my opinion, comes the hardest thing to become habitual doing. You have to break the habit of allowing yourself to automatically interpret every experience by believing what happened-happened for a reason.

That is what throws off so many, so quick and so ruefully fast! Plain and simple!"

And furthermore,  at times, the results presenting themselves have absolutely no foundation or linkable reasoning to the previous results. 

And, when those presentments seem out of the ordinary, excessively long streaks, long chop chops, solid with numerous strong clumps of doubles or triples, 1-2-3-4s-3-2-1s, etc., etc., wager on them with strong positive progressions and keep pulling down the winnings and lose only the last one.

Now, in my opinion, comes the hardest thing to become habitual doing. You have to break the habit of allowing yourself to automatically interpret every experience by believing what happened-happened for a reason.

That is what throws off so many, so quick and so ruefully fast!    Plain and simple!

Thought I would go ahead and post what pump number I got gas at this morning on the way to the casino in Kansas City. Is there any other pump number but this one that's appropriate?

My buddy is with me and he's got all the songs programmed in for the ride and it starts something like this; Twilight Zone, Radar Love, Funkytown, I want a new drug, The Pusher, Cocaine, Another one bites the dust, Dude looks like a lady, Money, Walk this way, and lots more should get us over to the casino.

You know it's just after 2 AM and he's got the Twilight Zone song playing, how appropriate. If you know the words to the song, you would understand what that means.

Later.

QuoteThx alrelax on info re: Chime.

"...I do carry, with a couple of them having many thousands of dollars withdrawal ability per day, with no charges at designated ATMs, a great card is Chime. Chime allows $1,000.00 a day deposit and you could do it at Walgreens and there is zero charge to deposit. ..."


I did not research that one as it was 4-5 years ago. I have noticed the Chime commercials in past couple years.

*The key is to find one that fits ones' personal objective. They each seemed to have some little quirk (e.g., High daily withdrawl, deposits), yet maybe low ATM daily max with high ATM fees. I have only withdrawn from a casino ATM one time(once being the key word). I "think" the transaction fees totaled $8.75 (on 500, "ouch") as my bank AND the transaction company zinged me.


Continued Success,

IMO, one of the best.

"Bank online through Chime for cash withdrawals at fee-free ATMs1 using your debit card. Just launch the ATM Finder in your Chime app to find ATMs near you. You can also find more fee-free cash-back locations like Walmart, Dollar General, Target, and other retailers.

More fee-free ATMs than the top 3 national banks combined
With access to 60,000+ fee-free ATMs1 at stores like Walgreens®, 7-Eleven®, CVS Pharmacy®, and Circle K, we're making it more convenient to get cash on the go.

Make fee-free cash deposits5 at Walgreens®
Deposit cash conveniently at over 8,500 Walgreens locations – that's more walk-in locations than you'd have using any bank in the US.

You can withdraw up to $515 a day from your Chime account using an ATM. This $515 and any fees you incur from out-of-network withdrawals count toward the $2,500 daily limit on the Chime card."


Although it's not a large amount to withdraw cash per day, I do believe you can send yourself a western union (old trick to send to one's self) for the 9.00-18.00 or so for another $1,000.00-$2,500.00, etc.  But anyway, great backup card IMO. Virtually no fees if you stay within their huge national network and not use those casino ATMs or independent private gas station ATMs, etc.

When I started playing at the casinos in Atlantic City back in the 80s it was drummed in me to stay away from poker because the players from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan would work in teams and use signals that nobody else knew about and fix most of the games, especially in the high limit rooms in Atlantic City. There was always a problem with them adhering to the poker rules and regulations back then.