Baccarat.  Our wagering decisions are frequently and enormously fueled by lies from others as well as our own beliefs that most would be better off without.

To understand how to win, what might happen and how presentments probably will not-but might follow something; you will never find definitive answers to.  Baccarat is unlike all the scholastic, mechanical and technical/industrial teachings, the way we were/are taught-instructed, whereupon there is a definitive solution for most every situation or problem.

Coupled with, "I have won previously by wagering so-and-so after such and such", or the event of "XYZ almost always appears and it has not yet", etc. Those are powerful subconscious things that do influence most all players at the baccarat table. Every single time.

There are basically three modes of wagering at the table. 1)  Your decision based on what you believe;  2) Follow others because they are winning or seem to be in the groove; 3)  Sit and watch.

Let's look at those three modes.

1)  When it works it's great. Adds win money, adds emotional positiveness and confidence. However, our beliefs, which you must realize, are well less than 50% in most every session that will come about and we can capitalize off of. And that is the key, see explanation below. (#1 Explained)

2)  Usually works for one or two wagers, but the absolute highest percentile of time fails after those and your frustration level will be compounded with large amounts of, "why in the F*** did I do that?".

3)  If hands develop and win that you picked, you will become frustrated and add to a larger clouded judgment you already had.

#1 Explained.  I will state that in all the years I have played, my wins are most certainly less than 50% of my wagering. Not one doubt about it. That is why flat betting will never prevail in the highest of the high percentile grouped any way you care to analyze it. Positive Progressions will add advantages and fuel to your play if you know how to develop and apply a Money Management Method that works in your favor and to your advantage when you win.

And of course we attempt to duplicate our wins with reasonings. Such as equalization, naturals cut or stick, ties cut or stick, chop chop, etc. etc. And if we start to win numerous Wagers (more details at: https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11605.0), we open ourselves up for, "I knew it-I found it-It's going to happen again without a doubt", and those types of self promoting statements. And most mistakes are made if flat betting again after initial wins—then it happens and you win again, so you are further convinced the parlay and use progressiveness should be employed but the highest majority of all times, it falls off and you lost the wager. Of course because you convinced yourself you found it and were right, etc., you wager once again with progressiveness on the same and another loss amounts. And that becomes the typical, "I gave it all back and I lost my win money as well as my buy-in money scenario.

There are so many false hoods and so many lies that are either published, sold as systems, talked about with great drama on forums  or sold in books, that it is pitiful. Take all the statistics you want. Attempt to deduce those down to one or two or three or four or five shoes and the odds of being able to win the wagers preached, session after session after session are so totally in favor of the casino, I hate to think about it. 

Sure, whatever you are believing in by using some kind of statistics might occur, but it will not under any circumstance, be consistent and repetitive shoe after shoe or at any time within a session continuously, session after session after session. And the few times it works gives you such fuel and motivation to continue the attempt, if you don't wind up continuously losing your buy-in risk capital, you put huge amounts of strain and unnecessary risk on your buy-in and/or previously won profits.

Reference, "The winning is often more difficult to manage because we have to make decisions re: how we are going to parse the just won monies. Our MM should be predetermined and rock solid based on ones specific objectives."

I see almost every single session I play, most all people giving all their win money right back, over and over until they grind down their buy-in.  Then they buy-in again and repeat until it too is gone. 

This occurs over and over with the same regular players as well new ones the highest percentile every single session. 

I would have to say, their wins are their fuel, their ignition and lighters.  And what is sad, there are certainly some good strategic players within them, (except for their total lack of any MMM). 

SIDENOTE:  Most people I talk to, overhear talking and lots I read what they write all over the Inet ref MMMs;  It seems they believe the term is pretty limited to building their bankroll with wins, wagering larger, stop wins and losses (usually 3-5), and other protocols using their win money, etc.  WoW, totally in the casino's favor, 100%. 

Here's what happened.  At the Baccarat table.  We were all winning (our group of 5), mostly playing together for a couple of shoes.  Full table with plenty playing over our shoulders.  All spaces have 3 spots, one seated and the other 2 standing.  Anyways, like I said we were all winning.  Dealer change and we were working on 3 Winning Bankers hands and the dealer gets tapped out.  New dealer, we all look at each other and mouth the word 'Players'.  (For some unexplained reasoning, most of the time it does fall off or cut from Bankers with the new dealer coming in.  Why?  No reasonable explanation, but it certainly does.)   

A second look at each other and we are all at table max wagers, we mouth the word Bankers.  Okay, we are all on the Bankers.  Players return a Natural 8 and I say, "Houston, we got a problem".  Then the Bankers return a Natural 9. 

The 5 of us get paid, color up and walk away.  We cash out and decide to go off property to get dinner.  Once at the restaurant and seated at the table the others look at me and say, "Houston, we got a problem".  Laughs and high fives.  Good times.  So I say, let's all name as many famous movie quotes and whom they are from within 5 minutes each without stalling and the winner, second and third runner up pays nothing for dinner and drinks.  The other two pay the entire bill.  We all agree.  We all had steaks or seafood and the drinks included cognac, brandies and other premium types.  The bill is always over $100.00 each.

I got second place and here are mine.

Batman:  "I'm not going to kill you.  I want you to do me a favor.  I want you to tell all your friends about me"

Superman:  "I'm here to fight for truth and justice"

Clint Eastwood:  "But being as this is a . 44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"

Al Pacino:  "Say hello to my little friend"

Clark Gable:  "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn"

Judy Garland:  "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Strother Martin:  "What we have here is a failure to communicate"

Robert Duvall:  "I love the smell of Napalm in the morning"

Pat Welsh:  "E.T. phone home"

Sean Connery:  "Bond.  James Bond"

Cuba Gooding, Jr.:  "Show me the money!"

Jack Nicholson:  "You can't handle the truth"

Alfonso Bedoya:  "Badges?  We ain't got no badges!  We don't have to show you any stinking badges!"

Arnold Schwarzenegger:  "I'll be back"

Tom Hanks:  "Houston, we have a problem"

Sylvester Stallone:  "Yo, Adrian"

Tom Cruise:  "I feel the need for speed"

Those were my 17.  Other guy got 22.  Someone jotted down mine and I copied it last night. 

One for the books.   

From my heart and soul. Winning is everything, but you must handle it with complete consciousness. Most all will shrug off everything I'm saying here and lose not only their winnings each time, but continuously their buy-in amounts.

Winning is nice, of course. But winning is what leads to danger in the game. Without a doubt, the number one largest cause of immediate and aggressive losses. Newbies will never understand so just skip the article because it will probably only confuse you.

Yes, without any doubt whatsoever, without winning there would be zero reason to play. With that admitted, said and laid out, read on if you want to learn.

1). Winning feeds large amounts of positive emotions into the player.  Most have no idea how to handle the influx of winning within a shoe or at the end of it. 

2). Winning tends to override all plans, guidelines and paths all players believe they have and plan to play by.

3.  Winning alters thought.

4.  Winning fuels additional play which is almost always based upon emotions and hype.

Winning convinces most all, that whatever came about allowing the win or wins, will continue or will be repetitive within the shoe. And most of the time it was probably a coincidence. Hard to decipher at the table, I agree, but factually and statistically true beyond a reasonable doubt.

So many players, both new ones as well as experienced, never recognize the concurrence and casual connections between their reasonings and the appearing outcomes from the shoe with winning hands. Sure there might be a few that were absolutely planned, but the majority of them were not at least how they came about. If you care to admit it, you're honest.  Those that link the concurrence and label it factual and statistical are dead wrong and causes great future losses trying to be repetitive with those. 

Would've-Could've-Should've. We have all been there, honestly. No purpose served, only adding frustration and bad emotions every single time. Reference what is coming out of the shoe, the total additions and/or reductions to each hand, how long the same trend lasts, how a series of hands were formed, etc. etc. etc., the list is long and that is what I mean, Would've-Could've-Should've, frustrating yourself into another world.  Especially after a series of wins.

The win is extremely powerful and absolutely convincing to the person playing. And without even knowing it, that is what changed your mind, thought process and will cause you to give it back and begin the ugly chase to regain it. That is exactly what happens the highest majority of all times with players capitalizing nicely during a shoe.

***Because winning is the most influential event of the game. Nothing else compares. Huge psychological subconscious and some conscious beliefs are immediately formed from winning. Be careful.  Those beliefs normally take over and altar most all players thoughts, don't be one of them.

We normally follow what has won us something. Naturally we don't follow or wager on what has lost us money. However, we tend to forget about the 'change up', that so frequently happens. When you win, stop a second and think about what I just said, consciousness and not following only what has just caused the win. 

How are you engage or disengage is the key and because there are no written protocols, that will always work in your favor, remember that. Wins and further wins are capitalized on by being able to continue and stay in the groove, knowing how to cope with drawdown and using win money as capital, will work in your favor. Allowing win money to alter your emotions, clarity and picture will force you to give it all back and jeopardize your buy-in aggressively.

***Unfortunately, expectations and characteristics of what has happened, as well as what has not yet happened with the shoe are usually the largest factors most players allow to govern their play. Reread that and hopefully you'll understand it.

Unfortunately wins are not a clear path to additional wins, what so many truly believe each and every session. It is because those very same things that caused the win, do not and will not at work other times. And unfortunately any way you slice it, the reasoning to your wins work less when you tally the characteristics of them up.  Hence, is why I say, win and give it back and chase for the loss.

Understand winning and how it comes, why it came, why it doesn't and most of all, how to apply it to your Money Management Method.

How you engage or disengage with the winning process is the absolute key.

Seriously, if think you're going to pull up to the casino, walk in, buy-in with your money, play-point at the score board and follow others, win, then walk out each time or the majority of them with profit, you are so far from reality you might as well plan on going to the moon in a couple of weeks!!!

Seriously!

$25,000.00?  Seriously dude! Was the judge his cousin?

Besides the age factor, what the hell is a "emergency payment to the fire department"?  Maybe it fit under the casino property's 'cost code center' of 'MCP' (municipal corruption payments) in their pay-outs section?

The table was almost full, there was a pure chop chop happening.  Probably about 7 or 8 hands and it was about 25 hands into the shoe.  Sat down, bought in.  Only one available seat next to a guy not many like at all.  He is pretty much a consistent players side bettor, the highest majority of the time.  Nothing wrong with that, but it is his constant obnoxious comments and actions that get under most other peoples skin that are playing.  For example, most people might be on the bankers side with plenty of black and purple chips or larger stacks of green, and he will be on the players  side with the table min to $75-$100 at most.

A typical hand would go something like, players first two card total 1 and bankers first two totals 3.  As the dealer is pulling a 3rd card for the player, he would certainly be saying out loud, 7 or 8–gimme 7 or 8, in sharp loud broken English. 

He is ALWAYS OBNOXIOUS, not one doubt about it!  He is S.E. Asian and talks extremely limited English, but recites numbers and select words well, the rest of his talk is always in S.E. Asian. 

Seriously, no real problem most all the time.  To each his own.  My personal way of acting is, unless I am on a side where everyone is on or I am the largest or darn close to being the largest bettor, I rather not say anything until the hand is over.  $4,000-$5,000-$6,000, etc., on one side collectively, then a sole person wagering &15-$25-$75 on the other side is perfectly acceptable, but why say something before the hand is over hoping everyone losses with considerably larger money than myself?  Compounded with extremely seldom does that guy wager with everyone on a sole side. 

Okay.  But the other night, like I said I believe everybody was on the bankers, several covering the Fortune 7 bet as well. It was 2s and 3s in the beginning 15 hands or so with maybe one single and then the chop chop when I came in, with a couple of ties. I believe there were seven maybe eight chops and a Banker when I bought in just appeared.  I put my bet on the bankers and several others did as well. Others went with the chop for the players side. It was a players, lost my first hand. Of course the guy laughed and talked  something I did not understand. Still no real problem, just normal.

The next hand he does not do anything. Most all go on the bankers because of the chop, a few did not bet. The guy does not wager. It was a Bankers, Still with a consistent chop chop. Now, the next hand. The guy wagers first and immediately starts his small talk; chop, continue, win-win, etc. Most do stay out. A few on the players side. Myself on the bankers and wagering on the fortune 7. The others have no Fortune 7 wager.

Players first two cards totaling 3, bankers first two cards totaling 2.  Mister Obnoxious stands halfway up and leans in a bit and says five, give me five card. Players get an ace. So naturally as the dealer is ready to pull the bankers card, Mister Obnoxious says, monkey monkey monkey coming out.  Okay, the song is definitely playing in my head, I don't know why I came here tonight. I got a feeling something ain't right. I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair.  I actually said those three lines out loud.  The dealer is holding it back, she is making eye contact with me because she knows how Mister Obnoxious operates. 

The dealer is about ready to bust out laughing but controls herself.  Now normally with anyone betting the opposite side, I don't call for cards.  Maybe if I am on the banker side and covering the Fortune 7 and the players having less than seven with the first two-three cards, I might call for a six or seven if the bankers have a zero or one and bankers are drawing their third card. 

But with things going the way it was, I just had to say, give me that 5, yes ma'am give me a 5 please. The dealer pulls the card and put it on its edge and she could see it before we see it and she quickly blinks at me and I can feel it in my heart that it was a five. As she blinked her eye, I immediately said, I got a feeling something ain't right (you know, from the song by Stealers Wheel) and just about everybody bust out laughing because they all got what was gonna to quickly happen except for Mister Obnoxious.

She flops the 5!  Fortune 7 time!  So I say very loud, there it is that 5 you called for, beautiful! And the guy went FRIGGIN Berserk!!! Oh my God, totally berserk. Loud, screaming, yelling and of course all in S.E. Asian. No one answered him, not one person. Dealer was holding it in, very obvious. It was one that I will not soon forget.

 

Ways to combat:

"...In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.

And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE...."


Key Point:  Wins are put into and divided into the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd protocol.  Then your bankroll is governed by its beginning as well as one of the 1/3rds.  The other two 1/3rds should not used for gaming. 

The governance doing that equals advantage. 

But one must win.  Winning is extremely subjective and individualistic but the handling of money/wins is the downfall that sucks most all in to the negative.  IMO.

Found these earlier today stuffed into an old notebook I was going through. 

As most of you know, I was in New York/New Jersey for many years.  One of my primary and favorite properties of the 90's was Bally's Grand, later known as The Atlantic City Hilton Casino. 

Tons and Tons of memories of all kind!  Anyways, I was back there playing Thanksgiving week of 2008.  My host at the time comp'd me a seat in their private suite box  to go and enjoy the Philadelphia Eagles game.  Limo from Atlantic City as well of course.  Remember the casino's butlers from their private suite floor at the casino hotel also there, prepping and serving all kinds of catered in food and beverages.  On the back of my box ID, I wrote down Eagles 48 Cardinals 20.  McNabb threw 4 TDs as well.  It was a cool game, especially for the Eagles fans and it being the home field.  Great memories!

The second one is a 100.00 comp the executive hosts would hand out to use at their gift shop or elsewhere on the property.  Their gift shop had some pretty good stuff in it, unlike most these days.  We got pretty much anything we wanted, within reason, but the executive hosts would walk around and throw these 100.00 'use as you please' self comps on the tables to their players in the high limit room.  Usually 3, 4 or 5 of them at a time to their players.  Again, great memories!

"Every plan has an inherent degree of risk. But risk is the price you pay for opportunity".

 A.J. Cooper played by Tom Selleck

Nice!  But those personalized license plates in your part of the country sure are on the El Cheapo side, huh?  Lol!

I can see it now.  Cop pulling you over, Baker 427 to dispatch, go ahead Baker 427.  Baker 427 stopping (state) BAC, personalized plate, B-Better, A-After, C-Citations, Mile marker 122 north bound highway 64.  Baker 427 copy. 

Always works best in my opinion, to post all the texts first save it posted. Then go back in and press More, Modify, Add Attachment (pressing Choose button) and post pictures or link by going to your photo library or taking a picture, etc.

There does not seem to be any problems.  I went into one of my posts and added a reply, posted, went back in and added a picture, same way you described.  I emailed Vic to confirm.

It involves everything a casino must do and does concerning player buy-ins, cash outs, refusals to produce ID, CTRs and SARs, and much more.

The reason I am posting this is because the other night a guy won about $8,000.00 at the table. He bought in for at least $5,000.00 that I saw. He cashed out $7,500.00.  He returns to the table and plays a few hands. Grabs $5,000.00 in purple chips and goes back to the cage. Returns back to the table and I asked him why he didn't cash them out all at one time. Told me he didn't want a CTR created, so he cashed out well under $10,000.00 and the second time gave them $5,000.00 and will get a check in a few minutes for that. So he was smiling and said, he just avoided a CTR. I told him it does not matter he is still getting a CTR filed. Years ago correct, but not no more my friend. $7,500.00 cash and $5,000.00 check equals a $12,500.00 CTR. And probably an SAR for doing the split transaction as well. He told me I had no idea what I was talking about.  (And transactions are most certainly figured cumulatively based upon the casino's 'gaming day' by the financial compliance department, no matter what the clerk at the cage or VIP counter tells you)

Please note as so many argue about and cause drama on the forums, it all starts at $3,000.00 of transactions by the player.

If you click on the link you can read it all.

Here is a copy and paste of just one little section concerning the starting threshold of $3,000.00:

(9)

(i) A separate record containing a list of each transaction between the casino and its customers involving the following types of instruments having a face value of $3,000 or more:

(A) Personal checks (excluding instruments which evidence credit granted by a casino strictly for gaming, such as markers);

(B) Business checks (including casino checks);

(C) Official bank checks;

(D) Cashier's checks;

(E) Third-party checks;

(F) Promissory notes;

(G) Traveler's checks; and

(H) Money orders.

(ii) The list will contain the time, date, and amount of the transaction; the name and permanent address of the customer; the type of instrument; the name of the drawee or issuer of the instrument; all reference numbers (e.g., casino account number, personal check number, etc.); and the name or casino license number of the casino employee who conducted the transaction. Applicable transactions will be placed on the list in the chronological order in which they occur.


The Entire Act Referencing Casinos:

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-31/subtitle-B/chapter-X/part-1021

By the way, I have several letters from casinos with their inquiries to FinCIN with relation to bills-in (slots) as well as players cards (rating cards) and what is or should be considered a cash transaction. You will be amazed at the inquiries and protocols! I will post some interesting sections of those letters later today.

Research.  Be Creative.  Adapt.  Be Smart.
                            Win! 
      Learn What to do When You Win.

One of the paradoxes of creativity is that in order to think originally, we must first familiarize ourselves with the ideas of others. Thomas Edison put it this way, "Make it a habit to keep on the lookout for novel and interesting ideas that others may have used  successfully.  Your idea needs to be original only in its adaption to the problem you were working on." 

So understand what problems you face and why you face them, that is the research you must engage in to have a clear picture of what you need to adapt.  Adaption is a common and inescapable practice in creativity.

Here are 10 things you should be asking yourself and have answers to.

What else is like this?

What other ideas does this suggest?

Does the past offer a parallel?

What could I copy?

Whom could I emulate?

What idea could I incorporate?

What other process could be adapted?

What else could be adapted?

What different contexts can I put my concepts in?

What ideas outside my field can I incorporate?


Remember.  When you place things in different contexts and situations, your imagination can stimulate new ideas.