We were in Chanhassen last night when the win came the entire restaurant stood up and cheered and the owner bought everyone a drink and gave the kids ice cream on the house......

I bet in them @ -105 at The Wynn sports book in Vegas through my daughter that lives there.  But I love the team. I only wager sporadically on them, I used to wager NFL like 6 or more games a week from 98 to 2009 and did very well.  But now only my 3 favorites in football, and not every week.

Bottom of the 8th, Yankees 1 and Pirates 2, doesn't look great.

Make that, for sure it doesn't look great.......................

         
Sunday, just after lunch here.

Two things going on.   

1)  The Bronx Bombers to win with a $1,200 wager and it is the third and the score is 0 for the Yankees and 1 for he Pirates;

2)  My thread I promised myself would have more than 2,000 views by Monday AM and the thread in the Baccarat room is right now at 1991 views @ Sunday a bit after 1:00PM!!!!! 

Go Yankees................Go baccarat thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yankees starts in a few min's, I am betting $1,200.00 on them because of you  , not because I love them and I am from the Bronx (Jerome Avenue owned a business and lived up in the NE Bronx) and because I always loved them (repeating) but because of your system!!!!!! It's all on you!!!  (you taking that seriously, right???)   LOL, they better come through, the Bronx Bombers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was referring to the Yankees, the Brewers, The Washington National & Baltimore Orioles.

2 won and 2 lost.

I apologize, was just making conversation and I will curtail that, seems to bother you on the message board.  No pun or derogatory was written or in anyway intended.  Thanks be good!

And then when I go back to when I first posted in your thread on the Mets, you won and lost the following, but I might be wrong as you  insinuate:

WON:  Washington; Baltimore; Blue Jays; Arizona
LOST:  Milwaukee; Yankees; Cubs; Mets

That is kind of what I had tallied up as well, but whatever.................................

But then again, according to you, I am not telling the truth...............................

So the last 4 you got 2 right.  Pretty much like black or red but you have to wait longer.

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 20, 2017, 04:05:02 AM
Wise words alrelax, I have played this game more times than I care to admit. I absolutely love the game and have much time invested into studying the game. I have made and lost thousands of dollars playing Baccarat and it's hard for me to play lately because if I have a bad day and don't win I get very, very, angry. I love wagering on sports as well so I'm focusing my energy on that right now. If I could suggest anything to someone wanting to be successful at Baccarat it would be this: Have a pre-determined bet selection and wait for it.

Wewin2222

You are correct!

Your emotional state falls into the 'intangible' part of playing baccarat.   I do believe "Tangible mixed with Intangible as well as Variability" describes the game pretty well.

Many on this board ague and discredited me numerous times for the 'OTHER' areas I bring up that 100% affects a players mentality and decisions at the baccarat table.  The psychology of the 'unknown' meaning--nothing to do with the shoe and the game of  baccarat--effects your play so drastically it is not even comical in the least bit!

Most will never find out or define what I have, I am convinced of that.  I wrote the following which touches on what you have with what I defined as #3.

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/psych-of-winning-at-baccarat/

.......", how you accept it is up to you and a huge influencing factor on how you will continue to wager.  Something like, "If you can not see clearly and you are aggravated, you will not wager properly."  When I wrote that, I was referring to a player winning and being in the wrong frame of mind because he was aggravated--mad--upset with other life factors or even the factor of the game because of the amount of money he has lost, etc. And just last weekend I saw it, I do almost every week I go tot the casino.  It was a female who was smacking the casino, probably around $10k up off a $1,500 buy-in I think it was.  Well over $10k in half a shoe approximately.  Then she became aggravated with about 3 or 4 losses in a row.  To add insult to injury brewing, it was those losses that she wagered and convinced the whole table to go with her--it was a clear strong pattern and she went with the opposite cut mentality. (PLEASE-I understand that the shoe could have cut just as easily as it stayed doing what it was doing!  However, it was her emotions and everyone else's emotions that clearly took over and took over 100%).  Hand after hand, like I said--I think 4 wagers.  Lost each one.  $500 then $800-$1,1000 then $2,000 wager, table max.  Even gave her girlfriend chips to wager more.  Each wager was sheer stupidity and she should have just sat out.  A few did, many went with her and clearly went with her because she wagered that way.  Loss after loss.  Then like 10 plus Player hands came out and the losses were huge.  The faces (not very happy), the smiles (none), the high fiving (zero), the boasting (zip), the eyes (hard stares).  All prevalent to a written script--100%.  The next two shoes wiped everyone out.  Everyone buying in, going to cash checks, going to the ATM repeatedly.

More so the time factor or how many wagers you plan--is the emotional aspect and how it does effect your playing, don't kid yourself it certainly does!

I have wrote about some other topics which included the player's emotional state on this board.  You might not have those on-line sitting on your couch with a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and a glass of milk, but at the casino they count enormously.

It is that, 'Frick--I am not going to get mad and upset--I will get it back and smack the casino--I just did it and I have the knowledge and the experience and the bank roll to it.  I will win and win big' type of attitude, and it happens all the time.  And, that is when the player becomes upset-disturb-mad-teed-off-whatever your label-it happens and it happens so frequently it is really, most common.  Most will never see themselves doing it or even others at the table.  That is the sad part.

Most players are not focused on the results as they are presenting themselves.  They are focused on their attempt to predict and have the results conform to their expectations, which is really regressing away from the mean and influential observations misinterpreted.  This is what the casino, the hosts, the management of the properties count on.  The player can't stay away from bad bets.  That is the exact and only reason the pens, the scorecards, the multi-thousand dollar scoreboards are bought and installed by the casino for your eyes.  They influence and they control you, once you learn that and use it to your advantage, you will become a more profitable player.

Many ask me, PM and otherwise, what is the single thing "I" really need to remember or do to help me win @ the casino.  IMO, there it is.

I really thought it was the Lakers.  LOL.  I already found the monkey and smacked him around a bit!  Guess I was thinking about the opposite end of sports wagering on the receiving side.  I will leave this area of wagering to WeWinn and the experts. 

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 18, 2017, 11:51:09 PM
Utah Jazz +6.5 vs the LA Clippers not the LA Lakers. I haven't followed basketball much this year and don't have an opinion. Good luck! I hope you and the head monkey are right on this one.

Wewin2222

Yes the Clippers, don't know why I wrote Lakers, Ted-----you want $250 on this???  I am putting $750 for myself, up to you?

I heard through he grapevine that the Utah Jazz will win tonight.

Special, systemic-analyzed-researched and besides, the head monkey guarantees the win!

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 18, 2017, 12:18:35 AM
System Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +147 or 1,000 wins 1,470.

Anytime you wager against the home team in baseball you're taking a chance. My system loves the Arizona Diamondbacks to beat the home team LA Dodgers tonight. This is certainly a risk but such as gambling. If you want to take a gamble tonight you can win 147.00 for every 100.00 wagered.

Wewin2222

Good job you got one!  Go wager it all and make some real money, the sports books are waiting.

Quote from: Wewin2222 on April 17, 2017, 08:21:12 PM
System Pick: Chicago Cubs -185 or 1,850 wins 1,000.

Chicago Cubs are a big favorite to win at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. Laying 185 to make a 100 is kind of steep, however they should get the job done. I've learned that nothing is a sure thing but this is a solid wager and worth the risk if you have the cash!!

Wewin2222

You have not been doing to well lately huh?  Sorry, but sports wagering is tough for the player, great for the sports books!  It is a fantastic business if you can handle the legal end of it.  Looks like to me the Brewers smoked the cubs!  Ouch.

Randomness, Equality, Equaling Out--Bias

Whatever you want to call it or label it.  Take 80 + - hands in a shoe of baccarat and without something of random events from happening, there would be either all Bankers all Players or a perfect alternating chop-chop of Banker then Player for the entire shoe.  I have played the game of baccarat for well over 35 years and the only thing I ever saw that even came close was 3 shoes of thousands and thousands and thousands of shoes.  One shoe had the entire shoe of Banker-Player chop-chop alternating hands with some ties in it, from start to finish.  The other shoe had all doubles in it from start to finish except one 3 which I think was 3 Bankers in a row.  The last one was a shoe without ties in it, no ties not even one, which was only good for those of us who don't wager for the tie.  But those are the only 3 shoes with the whole shoe being something  with no random acts so to speak that I ever saw.  But, there certainly is varying types of randomness with each shoe of baccarat and at most times, the randomness throws almost every player off their desired result.  That is the problem. 

This is where the largest part of the wagering aspect of 'technical and strategy' comes into play.  With agreement or without agreement.  Second to none.   Randomness either makes it easy or makes it harder, depending on what you need to match your wagering plan and decisions. 

While anything is possible in a shoe of baccarat the majority of times there are spikes with anywhere up to an abundance or a lack of clear patterns and trends  for sake of having to give a label to describe what I am talking about referring to such results as Bankers and Players, Singles, Doubles, 1's, 2's and 3's, Naturals that cut or stick, Ties that cut or stick, etc., etc., and so on.   With my comment, anything is possible , possible does not mean equaling or evening out, it does not mean producing something, it just means anything and everything  with no rhyme or reasoning or continuing or a set discontinuance of a pattern or trend, or any event that you can follow or go against-doesn't matter, whatever you want to term it. 

Many play the catch up game  throughout the shoe-meaning, one side is behind a greater amount and, I am going to wager for the inferior side to catch up.  Works and does not work, just about 50-50% of the times in reality.  Especially, when the inferior side starts to catch up and then fails while you got so confident and so consumed in progressions and wagering on that hope you got smacked once again and probably a larger loss than what put you in the position to start that kind of wagering. 

The problem in baccarat is that there is so many short term deviations, you cannot apply what you interpreted just happened in the past several hands into the current series or the next series of what will actually be produced as winning hands.  And when you fall into that rut, your aggravation and frustration levels become huge.  Then your mind frame, concentration and thoughts are negatively affected without your conscious knowledge.   Then you miss the easy or easier or ever so prevalent (whatever you want to label it) coincidences that formed and all your wagers were on something completely opposite because you were stuck in some cloud and just plain frustrated to the point of being blind.  Your aggravation and frustration levels are so high you are a danger to yourself and your bankroll/buy-in.  So the really good sections with repeating small trends that you would have probably wagered on and caught, were not so good to you and you lost money. 

The problem is this.  Many players attempt to calculate or predict the randomness.  So many systems or bet placement methods and plans, will sell you their holy-grail attempt at some pre-planned amount of wagers, usually with a negative progression (just in the rare case you lose, LOL) that counts on the inferior side quickly catching up to the side that dominated.  The real downside to that, is the way the inferior side does catch up and how often the strikes are that will add positive wins to the inferior side, etc. 

Random and bias most certainly have maximums or an unwritten type of limit, is the best way to describe it.  You will not have 50 straight Bankers, followed by 30 straight Players.  Can it happen, possibility-but the odds would probability be something like 1:4,000,000 shoes or something like that.  Here is the guts of it.  Take all the statistical numbers you want from say 10,000 hands or a 100,000 shoes, whatever.  Apply the mean averaged results, meaning dividing it down to one shoe of 80 hands or so.  In fact, apply them to 3 or 5 shoes if you feel better, whatever amount of shoes you are sitting down to play that is.  What those winning hands produce for the small series of 3-5or 7 shoes you play cannot be reproduced with the stats that you ran on all your sampling.  That is why systems and bet placement methods do not prevail on any type of consistent basis.

A hot streak of Bankers or Players a long series of alternating chops or a shoe where every single natural cuts to the opposite side or any one of 10 other types of trends or events.  It will happen the same amount of times as the exact opposite happening.  Be it in the same shoe or one shoe compared to another shoe later in the evening.  Also, everything else with a touch of each one will also occur in between the shoe that produces the consistent trend and the shoe that has the complete opposite that occurred.  Random or bias happens, there is no way to stop it and as well you complicate your wagering enormously when you try to factor it in.  When you do that your thought process will become clouded and something that you do not want to creep up on you will normally set in and that is called aggravation and frustration.  The best wins and the clearest shoes I have experienced, were those played with no or little to none of both, both aggravation and frustration.  Been there and experienced it, many times.

Randomness and bias produces coincidences and that is where the highest majority of all baccarat players go astray.  Coincidences can be exploited as if they were predictable, even though they are mathematically NEVER predictable.  And that my friend is the casinos greatest friend and the players worst nightmare.

Open your mind and forget mathematical strategy and computer analysis.  It really does not apply to the few shoes you will be playing at the casino.