Quote from: Jay on December 17, 2016, 02:36:25 AM
Well thanks but whether you choose to call it "prediction" or something else doesn't really resolve the dilemma as far as I can see. What you seem to be saying is that you try to anticipate a winning streak based on one or more past wins, and the signal to stop betting is when you get one or more losses. If there was an advantage in this it should show up in the stats shouldn't it? But according to my research it doesn't. What I've found is that past successes don't reliably indicate future successes, and also past losses don't indicate more losses. What seems to be the beginning of a trend could reverse at any time, and similarly what seems be the end of a trend could also be just be temporary. What happens is that the false starts and ends eat away at your bankroll so that in the end you break even, or worse.

Exactly!  There is no 'prediction' that can prevail past a section/shoe/a couple of shoes here and there.  The key to it all, is hit and run, or bang it out big time when it is there, etc., etc., and so on. 

Ref the 'false start and eats away at the bankroll statement.  That is what gets the highest majority of the players.  Again, the key is to bang it out with larger wagers when your key triggers are present and capitalize on that section and then be done with it. 

RTM or losing time.  Or, simple terms, you played a section on a baccarat card and hit 4 times wagering on the opposite side---after it was already 3 in a row repeating.  Then the following half a shoe or a section, went 7 or 9 times or even more---once the 3 repeats showed up.  Or you won 15 units/wagers and lost the next 15 unit/wagers over the course of an equal amount of time playing.  Or, your 'key triggers' worked each and every time for the shoe and failed on the two subsequent shoes.

And that is what I have been preaching along with a few other things with figuring out a win and giving myself a boost with the 1/3rd system everyone here is apparently against.  But hey, it's all good! 

Again, it boils down to one thing, in and above, betselection--money management--progressions.... Which to me are all important.  But, if you win you have to get many many things out of your mind and know how and why you won. 

For me, I realize if it was myself wagering on what the shoe actually produced or if it was 'sheer luck' and haphazard wagering.  There is a difference, at least for myself there is. 

As far as walking away and as far as risk additional win money or buy in money to see if you can really rack it in---the 1/3rds work spot-on for me.  Here is an example as to what happened to player a few nights ago. 

I know the guy from the casino, I don't know his personal wealth or struggles, I do believe he is not wealthy and makes an average living, he plays once or twice  week, usually buying in for $200 or $300 and that is it.  Many times he will triple his buy in and leave, calls it a session, sometimes not, but overall more so than not.

The other night he buys in for $200.  Up and down.  Hit a few and presses aggressively.  Had $10.00 out on the Fortune 7 and hit for $400.  Stack it up in the next couple of wagers and lost it.  Hits another Fortune 7 in 5 hands after the first for another $400.  Wagers between $100 and $300 a hand and hits probably 7 or 8 out of the next 10.  Then about another 6 hands or so after doing well on the B's or P's having at least $2,000 in winnings, more than he normally ever wins, he hits another Fortune 7 for another $400 which now it is around hand 50 or so.  He plays real aggressive and has that aura about himself that he is bulletproof.  He lost it all by the end of the shoe.

My whole point to all this---is that you have to govern yourself.  Easily said, harder and most of the time NOT done at the tables.  Think about it. 

Again, correct.

1/3rds have served me well and many others

Personally, I am willing to give back 1/3 to continue, perhaps a tad bit more depending on the cards.

http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/know-when-to-stop-or-go/

AND ALSO

http://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/13-13-13-summation/

You are correct, if you desire to continue to play.

The average player will win and many times, no statics but rather quickly.  The problem you cite will enter the picture and the player is then doomed to give back the winning plus their buy in and probably continued buy ins until they get wiped or give up.

The player needs to learn how to walk when they win before giving it back. 

There are tons of press releases and involvement of USA law enforcement with on line gambling, whether in this country or people here involved with them.

For whatever it is worth, research who you are giving your funds to. 

The games are not always as they appear.

The same as sidewalk 3 card Monty in NYC back in the days, LOL. 

Same--Same--Same--Same, no difference.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/testimony/law-enforcement-implications-of-illegal-online-gambling

Quote from: alrelax on December 01, 2016, 09:24:42 AM
I am here and I am ready.  Old time friend in the state for some business endeavors, have not seen since Atlantic City days.  LOL, going to a casino tomorrow night if all goes right.  This should be north of fun!

Cancelled, due to bad weather, trying for later this week?

Quote from: ADulay on November 29, 2016, 06:20:05 PM
Got the card for that one?

AD

I tried to write it out, but didn't make much sense without the numbers each hand was producing and like wise the values of the cards, both winning and losing hands. 

I am here and I am ready.  Old time friend in the state for some business endeavors, have not seen since Atlantic City days.  LOL, going to a casino tomorrow night if all goes right.  This should be north of fun!

The article is pretty accurate and leaves out a lot of reference points of course. 

Reference Atlantic City:

A.C. screwed themselves because of 4 factors;

1)  Unions
2)  Casino corporate greed without reinvesting
3)  Political corruption to the max
4) Other gaming jurisdictions opening because of the densely populated northeast within 2 hours each way of A.C. and another 2 hours each way of NYC.

#4 probably would have happened eventually if A.C. turned into a true mini Vegas, but probably not until right about now, IMO.  But this happened prior to 2000, they easily could have bought another 25 years without much worry and if and only if they really blossomed A.C. into something much larger they probably could have pushed off other jurisdictions from opening nearby past 2020. 

Reference Southern California:

They built a lot of nice casinos and full service properties there, Pala, Pechanga, Agua Caliente, Fantasy Springs, etc.  Even Morongo has installed a high limit Asian baccarat and related room and really converted their huge floor baccarat action which included a lot of HL Vegas players into their property and that is happening all over Southern California where there is a ton of money and a ton of players that used to be Vegas exclusive only.

This has a lot to do with the mentality and greed of the casino companies as mentioned within the article in Vegas.  MGM and CET alone had huge cut backs and bad refinements to their player comp rules and regulations the past several years topped with the majority of the properties complete disrespect and lack of old-school service to the table games players mid-strip.  There are options and there are much better conditions off the strip.  The only down sides to getting off strip is the lack of the celebrity chef'd restaurants and the lack of Villa and Mansion type of hotel facilities.  The other properties have great restaurants and nice normal 2 and 3 bedroom suites.  As well, table limits, they are $5k, $10k and possibly more, not $15k to $25k off the street and above.  If you play bigger than $5k or $10k a hand, you can just have your wife or GF or male friend next to you and double your wager without anything every being said.  Just don't hand the cash to them to buy-in. 

I have mentioned it before and it took a few years and they will see many of their regular HL players not so often and losing players to other properties.  For most, the highest majority of the serious players, (not the fake and temporary whale or touristy type of players) once they get off mid-strip they really do enjoy the overall gaming play a bit better. 

I almost never keep the cards, the one I posted that was great and super strong, it was in grained in me. I can recite some of the one last night, will post after I grab a bite.

I went last night to the casino.  LOL!  WTF!!!  Bad with a capital 'B'.  Whatever we all wagered on, the cut, a repeat, wait for the 3rd repeating to wager the cut, whatever we did--we all got smacked.  I bought in for $1k, went down to $150.00 and got back up to $600.00.  Went down to $100 and back to about $700.00.  Cashed out $350.00 and called it a night.  Not even 2 shoes. 

Every time I felt it, anything, lose.  If I didn't wager and felt something and called it prior, it was a sure natural for the side I wanted. 

When it got to 3 we all wagered for that cut.  Stuck.  Then we doubled up, still stuck.  And we all said to each other that we were foolish.  We doubled again and stuck.  If we sat out or went back to the streak, it would of course cut at that time.  If you start for say $150.00 wager, double is $300 and a second doubling is $600.00.  We could double once more before table limit.  This is a $2k max per spot property. 

In my gut, when it is that bad, no matter how long or how much you buy in with, it will get uglier and uglier.  I leave when that happens. 

Lots to say, answering some PM's and addressing something someone else had posted.

These days there are primarily Midi or Macau Style and Mini baccarat tables.  The difference being, Midi/Macau the players handle the cards.  The Midi table is the successor of the original larger 14 seat/3 dealer baccarat tables where the shoe was placed with the player in seat #1 and then travelled counterclockwise around the table to each player, upon a player making a winning Players hand.  As long as the player made Banker hands, the shoe stayed with the particular player.

Generally, the house got smacked and smacked real hard on long/longer Banker streaks as compared to the Midi table of today. There are still some of the larger tables left at the bigger properties and they are always run with the players dealing the cards or the dealers, thereby making them large Midi tables.

Some players cannot stand the way people handle the cards.  In all essence and for the spirit of the game, most times it is to the players advantage.  If you don't like it and it messes with your thought process, play at the mini tables.  True 100%, no player can change the cards after they are dealt, a dead monkey with strings attached to it, would flip and flop the same cards once dealt. However, at times there are players that will return winning hands the highest majority of times and other players couldn't return a winning hand if the other side had a total of zero showing. Wager with the driver or against, based on how powerful or weak he or she is with the cards. Sounds strange and wacked out to those that never played Big Table or Midi style but it really does  boil down to that for so many.

I have considerably raised my wagers based upon another player's aura-actions and positive results in 'driving' at a Midi or a Big Table.  Under certain circumstances if the dealer was flipping/flopping such as in mini, I might not have wagered the other side, but I most certainly would not have wagered lots of the larger bets I had---when the camaraderie and the person was not doing the 'scene'. 

And there is either camaraderie or alienation here. Yes, a driver does not influence the cards/outcome WHATSOEVER, however and a huge however--the proper driver and the correct aura will influence wagers.  And with the 'music of the street' present, meaning-the sounds and the banter of the floor, the dealer, the pit personnel, the other players, the on-lookers, the cocktail waitress, and everything else around, the correct driver(s) can be an explosive 'pat on the back' and motivator.

And the passion---OMG!  Yes, absolute passion mixed with greed, desire and a bit of anger in most player's cases.  The good times-the bad times, that happen at the baccarat tables around the country, around the world.  For those of you who don't play baccarat or play only on-line, you will not relate or understand what really happens at the live Midi/Big Table baccarat tables anyway. 

The personalities, the actions, the shenanigans, the talk, the banter, the build ups and the let downs.  It's all there on a consistent basis, some nights are abundant with it all and others are lax.  But play on a regular basis and it will prevail. 

When a player that is 'driving' actually plays with his heart and soul and not to put on a 'show' he really does wind up putting on a 3 ring circus most times.  I am sorry to those that don't agree with the statement I just said or if I despised myself, however; I am only relaying this information and what actually happens.  I have tons of history with numerous gaming jurisdictions and I would just have to classify and say that, the Big Table bac days were the absolute best and far in every way--out does what happens with the majority of players and games at Midi tables today.  Mostly for two reasons.  The way so many players wager and believe in the 'cut' and their failure to play both sides, weak and strong.  Also, throw in the disbelief of 'what actually happens or can happen in playing baccarat'. 

There is no end to this thread.  I merely wanted to start something that addresses the game in overall view without the technical aspect of it.  Because in reality, there is a lot more going on than what the shoe produces!

One scenario.  Playing Midi, full table.  It was just chop-chop for numerous hands that followed a section of a few doubles and a couple of singles.  A tie and no Fortune 7's yet.  Around hand 25.  The 2nd shoe into the evening with most.  Last shoe nothing, everyone lost or is about even at best.  Yes, the last shoe and a quarter was pretty much unwinnable.  Meaning, whatever anyone thought or wagered on for whatever reason, it cut to the other side.  Happens at times.  Three Bankers just came out and the player driving wagered table max each time.  First hand everyone was on Players and players had a 6.  The sole player on Banker gets the cards and mumbles, '7 baby--7 baby, I need this please'.  He flops a monkey and says '3 sides'.  He turns the card long ways and starts the peel, real real slow.  The players all on the Players side are getting frustrated, baccarat at its best.  He slows down, puts the cigarette in his mouth and looks at the dealer.  Tell the dealer, 'a hundred for you if you gave me a 7 or an 8'.  He says no dot on it and turns it around.  Now it has been at least 45 seconds if not more.  Everyone is like come on bro let's go.  He starts the peel and then slams the 7 right side up. Now the second hand is coming out and half of the players are on Banker with the same driver and half are stuck in the 'cut' mode of thinking.  Once again the cards for the Player's side totals 0.  Bankers side returns 2.  Players side gets a card and the player driving says it a three line card.  Squeezes the heck out of the one side trying for an 8.  Turns the card and says maybe a 7, could be a six.  The other players are saying, don't matter we will win with a 6.  He flops a 6 after a few seconds.  Dealer slide the driver once again a card for the obnoxious driver.  I had $125.00 on Fortune 7 and the driver had $75.00 and most of the other players on Bankers had something on there and 1 player out of the Players side had a quarter up on the F7 as well.  Once again, the cigarette into his mouth, he looks around the table and says, '2 side-3 side no 8 and we are good huh'?  He takes a quick peek at the side and pops back up, '2 side baby, yes a 2 side--tie or hit the Fortune 7'.  He scoots his chair back and his chest is on the rail of the table.  I stand up and literally scream for a 5 and then say 5 for five thousand.  The floor person comes over.  The dealers at the next table are saying something about the nickel next to mine and the drivers' Fortune 7 wagers.  Says, 'looks like $410.00 if you gave that guy a 5'.  The dealers keep their own tips at this property.  The driver is taking his time and yes, everyone is quite except for me.  Then all of a sudden a female stands up and shouts, 'come the hell on' and mumbles something in Vietnamese that wasn't nice.  The driver stops for a second, looks at the female, looks at me, looks at the dealer, then he reaches across two spots and rubs the card on the number 5 seat number on the felt.  Rubs and rubs. Leaves it face down and tells the dealer, you turn it.  It is a 5.  Fortune 7.  Yes Baby!  Beautiful, absolutely beautiful.  The same driver goes on to make 4 more Bankers after that Fortune 7 hit.  wasn't a long run but a solid 6 and we are all good.  That's baccarat with a driver that can drive.

What so many fail to realize is the power of camaraderie coupled with the influence and the motivating factor of it.  Yes, at times it could work both ways but when it is positive and the table is flowing, it is much easier IMO and for so many I play with, to wager larger and win considerably more than at a mini table.  As I said, the passion-greed-high fiving-large wins-players driving with guts and flopping the cards making it all go our way.  It is the aura mixed in with the knowledge and conscious thought that we wagered on the person rather than the cards that makes this click in ways that are so hard to explain and define. When you see some of the players that really want to wager the opposite side that the great driver or the highest wagering player is not wagering, and then pulls his wager down and says, 'go ahead--I'm going to stay out'.  That is class-real class, no matter if the wager would have won or lost.  It is an unwritten move of sheer respect and class to do that.  Happens all the time.  On the other hand, if there is a person at the table that really feels like he has to wager the other side in that case, he normally would have the dealer flop the cards.  Again, a sign of that unwritten respect for the other players.       

So, this older gentlemen comes over, a once in awhile player of baccarat at this one property.  He is well known and he always shows up and always wagers against everyone when they first start to win.  He will wait for everyone to be on  one side, never ever wagering on anything with anyone else.  He waits and waits and waits.  Never says a word, never.  Always stands, never sits.  Throws out a one hundred dollar bill.  Dealer cuts out all nickels and slides them over to him.  He pulls them down and everyone is on Banker, he places the stack of $100 on Player.  One guy at the end of the table puts a few chips on the Player side also.  He pulls his down.  Dealer deals and it was a natural for the Player and Player wins.  He waits and waits.  Once again, everyone is on the Banker.  He slides his stack of $100 to the Player and the Banker wins, the guy walks away.

About 20 minutes later he reappears.  Another $100 bill buy-in and another stack of red chips.  He waits and waits.  Once again we are all on the Banker and he slides his stack up to the Player.  Although I am typing this 2 days after it occurred, out of the 3 hands this guy wagered, I specifically remember this one.  Player returns a 5 and a 3.  Banker cards flipped, top on exposed was a 5.  One of the guys at the other end of the table who always makes fun of this guy, tells the dealer to wait a second as he stands.  He sticks his arm out towards the cards half way across the table and spins his arm in a circle several times while saying "4"-"4"-"4" numerous times.  Dealer slowly slides the five to the dealer's left.  A 4 is exposed.  The player looks at the older gentleman and shoes him away with his arm.  Comical, like a sitcom!!

Same shoe, about another 10 minuets the gentlemen returns.  Once again, another $100 bill for another buy-in.  The dealer that is present wasn't there earlier but knows him very well.  I could hear him say, 'just wager against the guy' really low.  I look at him and say, twice already.  The dealer says, 'waited till everyone was on one side'?  I said, yeah and lost.  Dealer said, 'always'. A few hands go buy and then we are all on the Player and he slides his stack up to the Banker.  Players win the hand.  He walks away.