Last Friday night was cool.  I stopped at a super Walmart on the way to the casino and did about 75% of the Christmas shopping for my three kids.  I was bringing $1,200.00 for my local casino few shoe bankroll.  I spent $770.00 at Wal Mart on their toys, all I have left to buy now, is 2 new bikes, a 50" TV for their playroom and an all white bed set for my little girl that has been begging for one. 

Well got to the casino about 9pm and a few people just sat down.  I bought in with the $400.00 and started wagering $50 a hand.  I wasn't really in the mood to play cause I had to be at my office to open for the guys coming in at 6:30 am.  I was winning one and losing one for about 10 hands.  Then a new dealer taps in and he always rides me about himself making a Fortune 7 in the first couple-few hands.  So I throw a quarter up on the Fortune 7 and he draws 6 for the Players and showing blackjack for the Banker.  He looks at the table and sees almost everyone with money on the Fortune.  He pulls a card and says 6-6-6-6-6, etc.  Just before the table could see it, he says "On the first hand-yeah", then he flips a darn 6!  $1k payout. 

I played a few shoes and and every $300-$500 I got up, I would then give right back.  I was watching several players continually losing, I refrained from wagering every hand and every single time I loved something the others did also and then the shoe would make that opposite, no way to be on the right side winning decisions.  So, on the 4th shoe I got up about $400 to around $800 once I pocketed the $1k win earlier.  I left and went to cash out.  I gave the cashier all $800 and then took one of the black chips back and said I would wager it on one hand and try to press it twice.  I lost the first hand, so called it a night.

YOU.  You are the only person that can help you, period.

You can only win by knowing what you are really up against.

Players winning, is directly related to correct timing if the player is not wagering in a haphazard and off the hip fashion.

There are no mechanical systems that can always win, they simply do not exist.  People always have something to sell, trying to get everybody to be greedy and believe there is various ways to beat games of chance. 

Control and influence over your play, decision and wagering, is the absolute key.

Your technique effects the outcome of your wagers.

Dedicated practice, patience and willpower.  Those are the sound fundamentals.  The same as a school class, teaching sound fundamentals before going into the explanations of the subjects.

If you are going to pay good money to take a class or buy a system, etc., make sure that it is not fiction.  There are plenty of hucksters, cons and scammers selling a system of fantasy, confusion and baffling ideas that convince the player---"Hey, wait a minute, this is the Holy Grail that I have been looking for". 

People unfairly attack writers for writing and wanting to express their ideas, findings and thoughts, no matter if they are correct or not.  That is a fact that, complicates the situation of finding what is fiction or non-fiction.

When you are gambling you want to win.  You ca not live in a fantasy world, where all you wager on and believe in or base your wagers off of, is fiction that has been written by some of our so-called 'experts' which are only snake oil salesman selling systems that cannot prevail.  I do not even want to entertain the drama of the on-going crazy worthless operas at most baccarat tables with the superstitions and karma and the self-proclaimed power players think they possess, having validity and substance that leads to winning decisions. Bull-stuff to the hundredth power!

You have to understand, survive and be able to interpret what is happening. Not trying to change the winning results to the system you were made to believe in.  You need a clear mind until the time presents itself that you can excel.

There will be good days and days.  With the proper knowledge, you will be able to stop in your bad days and also be ahead of the game.  Not self-destructing and depleting your bank roll.

Many players also are under the impression that they can influence the game/shoe.  They cannot.  Simply guessing right numerous times is your enemy, realize that.  You ca no t influence, ca not change any present or upcoming hand.  You have to have the ability and knowledge to read and understand the shoe, how it is presenting itself.  You have to have the wherewithal to wager along with it.  And that is probably the single biggest win-lose factor of the game of baccarat.

Most players are not focused on the results as they are presenting themselves.  They are focused on their attempt to predict and have the results conform to their expectations, which is really regressing away from the mean and influential observations misinterpreted.  This is what the casino, the hosts, the management of the properties count on.  The player ca not stay away from bad bets.  That is the exact and only reason the pens, the scorecards, the multi-thousand dollar scoreboards are bought and installed by the casino for your eyes.  They influence and they control you, once you learn that and use it to your advantage, you will become a more profitable player.

Another huge downfall most players have in baccarat is the spiritual and lack of focus and all the belief in extraordinary things a player concentrates on with the hopes to change the outcome of the shoe.  Well if those players would concentrate on learning the knowledge that, would benefit their decision making. Such as knowing probability, regression to the mean, influential observations, independent and dependent events, expected value and house edge, etc.  Those along with practiced willpower and patience, money management and progressions, would be extremely helpful to a player.  In short, forget the Voodoo and the ritual chants and gain the knowledge that leads to power. 

Mentioning money management and progressions, without the proper knowledge of how to incorporate those into your bankroll, your gambling chances of winning overall at baccarat are pretty far against you.  It is not easy and on the other hand, not impossible.  It just takes the desire to learn how to obtain the knowledge and use the power that knowledge can give you.

Learning is very important, knowledge is power.  Knowledge is all important, but it is not where actual power abides, it is being able to use the knowledge.  For a player to practice the willpower, the patience and the knowledge within his actions, each and every time.  It is not fun, it is not easy, and however it is paramount to winning the majority of your wagers.  That is where learning and practicing how to implement that knowledge will improve you. 

Few people have what it takes to rise from bad or so-so gambling to the level 'Advantaged Player'.  And there is nothing wrong, nothing illegal with being an 'Advantaged Player.'  Lots of people attempt card counting, dice control or influence, memorization of video poker strategies---only to find that it is work, hard work.  Attending seminars on 'Advantaged Play' will give you insight as to the skills, but learning those skills and putting them to work for you is entirely another matter.  On another hand, possibly you will find lots of the sales speech stuff and instead of doing just those things, you will do the opposite.  Maybe, HUH?  Learning comes in strange ways and at times we think we are not actually learning, we really just might be. 

Would anyone think that just attending a seminar on playing basketball or football makes one a pro player? NO!  Because you know that would take lots of years of hard work, learning, unlearning, trials and errors, spending time with the right people in the right places to have you learn-adapt and execute those vital key components to being someone that excels in something.  You have to rise above and beyond the average person and that too, is rare in today's atmosphere of instant everything.

So, I am ending this short speech with the very same opening line, YOU.  You are the only person that can help you, period!

I have a couple people in my family working at CP in Vegas,  as well I have played extensively baccarat there in the HL room over the years.  One of my favorite places until lately, where I am starting to find better conditions off-strip.  Anyway, my host brought this up from back in he early 90's.  BTW, I have always said, almost all gamblers will give it all back and then some. 

I attached the full article.

The owners did not want a political discussion, which I attempted to keep it non-political with facts only.  They removed a post or two and left the OP.  So I deleted that to make them happy.  Hope that explains.

Okay 21Aces.  You know my little 4 year old is into all the figures, star wars, transformers, turtles, all that stuff.  He was pissing on his little dinosaurs the other days.  His mother puts her hands on her hips and yells, "WTF are you doing".  My little boy continues pissing and puts his index finger up to his mouth and tells his mom 'Shusssh'.  He finishes, shakes his pecker off and zips up his pants.  He goes, 'Mommy, the dinosaurs were thirsty so I gave them something to drink".  Comes over to me and high-fives me and runs outside to play.  His mom turns to me and says, "those are your genes not mine".  LOL. 

It all fuels the business aspect of everything for the cities/police dept., and offers up the ultimate word, "Justify".  No matter what they want, equipment, personnel, training, better pay, etc., etc., it is all somehow 'justified' now.  IMO.

The needless killing by the police as well as those of the police are very disturbing in the USA!

I would have thought after the last round of senseless violence, things would have improved?

So much wasted energy, worries and system involvement with all of this going on.

A blog within a blog for your non-gambling postings or casino adventures you want to share.

Hello, and welcome to my Blog--Our Blog! 

We are progressive here, knowledgeable and forward thinking!  Please share your positive and progressive knowledge in a respectful and adult way. 

Most will be welcomed and a few are not.

Cussing, demeaning, belittling and humiliating overtones are certainly prohibited. 

With that said, again-welcome.

Total amazement, how 4 on this board claim to know everything about everyone member here.  At least 3 of the 4 claim I have lost millions of dollars and numerous other things while gambling.  They say it with conviction, knowledge, supposedly witnessing it, etc., etc. 

I have won lots of money in the past 3 plus decades and I have lost plenty of buy-in's as well.  It doesn't matter the total figure, either way.  I put it on my little son's life, I have never kept records more than an occasional W-2G from gambling wins (due to a few slot machine once in a while) or an occasional years 'Win=Loss' from a casino for tax purposes.  I have no cumulative figures or records, none.

It doesn't matter to me, I don't gamble for a living and I have no desire or time to maintain records.  I have enough problem doing that in the business world, where I have to.  It doesn't mean anything to me.

But like I said, 3 of the 4 members on this board will come on, write something and with 1,000,000% conviction attempt to degrade, humiliate and chastise myself.  Pretty much they are jealous, bored out of their own worthless and pitiful life's or they have nothing constructive whatsoever to write about.

I have said it before, a simple fix for those four would be just to simply skip what I write, post or blog about.  In my everyday life I do the same thing, we all do in some fashion or form anyways.  We don't answer a call, we don't return an email, we throw away some letters or advertisements without opening when the mail comes, we skip a TV channel, we don't buy a book because the author is a jerk-off, etc., and so on.  So these four members hate me so much with pure vengeance, the simple answer for their satisfaction would be to skip anything to do with myself.  But they don't and won't.  Sorry, not made up, that is a real and factual event around here.  LOL, to the max!

What makes these four people hell bent and take their valuable time out of their day to concoct, twist, turn, and partially fabricate their stories with such conviction and energy?  Out of my heart, I feel sorry for them, seriously. 

Personally, I have never got mad at another playing for turning over the cards, say I returned a natural 8 for the Players and then he flops over a 9.  Some people will actually get mad at those players in that type of situation.  Personally, I would not, honestly. 

However, if he acted like a douc*ebag in the way he did it and knowing what he had, I might say something.  But that's just the Italian end of me coupled from being around The Bronx quite a bit. 

There is a reason why I do things, and that reason is---I enjoy doing it. 

I cannot understand why people will continually devote their valuable time, resources and their self-admitted extreme knowledge and wisdom to topics they don't enjoy and/or find interesting, or likewise-the OP's author and stances. 

To me, life is just too short.  If I don't like the person or agree or find some reason for common ground-I rather just skip it or go the other way.  Especially on a message board such as this.

I truly get a better picture of the signs hanging in the physical world now, such as 'No Trespassing', 'Private-Stay Out' and 'Do Not Disturb'.  More so than before, I wholeheartedly understand those people hanging them now. 

Back a bit ago I used to be partners in a strip-bar in New Jersey.  Countless times I witnessed and saw almost each and every one coming.  Those that got sucker punched or had a glass pitcher whacked on the side of their heads by the people they butted into the conversation with and just couldn't take the advise giving to them, 'walk away'.

What ever happened to the old saying, "If you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all"

Like someone going to great lengths to find a word a poster uses and then completely arbitrarily post something along the following, "Hey so and so, don't you know the word 'XYZ' is really supposed to be 'ABC', gheez what a dummy".  Kicker is: The word the poster attempting to belittle the OP about was actually used in the correct context!

Kind of reminds me about driving down the interstate between 75-80 mph just a tad bit above the speed limit.  The car behind, flashing its high beam lights and right up on my bumper.  Not a sole around.  Finally the car passes.  Gets back over in front of me.  About 2 miles down the road the car drops to 70 mph. 

I was standing outside in front of my house the other night.  Just got home, checked the mail and put garbage out for the following morning, etc.  The next door neighbor, whom is an elderly gentleman and not the favorite guy on the block---was outside side trying to start his lawn mower.  He is about a third paralyzed from when he was in the military and my other neighbors for some reason really don't much like him.  I had no problems with the guy since I have been living next to him.  I took his lawn mower from him, started it and mowed his lawn.  It is not huge and took about 20 min's from start to finish anyways.  When I finished, I saw two other neighbors standing there eyeballing me and talking amongst themselves.  Yeah right, whatever. 

The list goes on................

Quote from: Babu on July 01, 2016, 05:50:42 PM
Good point.  Their APPROACH is NOT mechanical.  It also requires the player to make a judgment on how much to bet.  The player may bet one amount on a certain count and probably will bet a different amount on the exact same count on another day.   Does anyone know the exact winning figure?  A few years ago, I did some research but not sure now reliable those sources are.  If I could remember correctly, they deploy about 60 players and they won x amount.  When I did the math, each person earned way less than 6 figures a year.  They probably make more getting a job with less stress.   While the wins they posted on weekends and overall wins were impressive, others have done similar perhaps by only luck.  Also according to certain sources, they were wagering large amounts the win isn't all that impressive.  It is overall impressive when you think that they end up winning instead of losing over all the years.  Most of the guys end up making more money working and starting their own business.

I believe that the APPROACH is the only way to win.  Players shouldn't expect to win crazy amounts either.  Unless you're consistently trying to use a progression to end a streak or pattern, I find it very difficult to keep track of where you are in the progression.  This is why I deploy the same approach as the MIT guys.  As far as bet selection goes, I also have triggers.  I did some research and most sources pointed out there there were not a lot of triggers even when counting cards.  The hardest part to implement is patiently waiting for those few trigger hands.  If you can't wait for them and just bet, that's where you will get in trouble.  I don't know if I'm being delusion on the matter of trigger handS but they served me well.  Notice I capitalize the "S".   Like card counters in BJ, they will not know the exact hand to bet large.  They just know the time when the count is good and they rely on the STRETCH that the count is good over several hands and not just one hand.  In order to make money on those stretch before the count change, you will need money to overcome.  NO FLAT BET WILL WIN YOU GAMES (Many have claim that they can do it but none have dared to show some proof).


I usually lose when I can't wait for those triggers.  The ability to wait for them, bet accordingly without getting too distracted is amazingly hard to do.

It is the same exact thing in a legitimate service business.  Emergency work Vs. Bided work, regular client that will pay no questions asked within 7 to 10 days after the job is complete Vs. say an insurance company for an insured that will take 3 to 6 months to pay after invoice audit and extended negations to wear down the business personnel, etc.  Tactic employed like those work!  Sucks.  The same job with a 70% profit margin and 5 day payment agreement will also be your next 10% profit job (if lucky) after waiting 5 months for payment and having $40k or more laid out (Out of Pocket Expenses) to get the job complete.  Same thing, no different in gambling.  Oh, lord, how about those invoices no one will pay even with a law suit, a judgment paper is still worthless against almost all people that refuse to pay in the business world. 

I don't really know if there is anything similar here (), but something comes to mind of 'easy money' in the way of selling/retail.  The seller choose not to deliver cars that he was the recipient of bank loans for and the other cars he did deliver, but only one little problem, he did not have the titles for them they were consigned.  Although a few people were able to bring the cars out of state and get new fresh titles on them because in certain states if you buy a car legitimately from a licensed car dealer with no knowledge that anything is owed on it, that act takes precedent over the previous financing and encumbered title.  But anyway, this all comes to mind with buyer/seller transactions. 

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2014/12/fbi_hunting_for_nj_car_dealer_accused_of_fraud.html


As far as Thorp goes, it is not a mechanical 'sure bet' system by any means, at times it might work and at other times it might not.  There is no guarantee.
 
Same thing in baccarat with progressions, money management and wagering triggers.  Plains and simple, no two ways about it.

I have disagreed with you Albalaha, but don't dislike you or attempt to pick you apart and make myself a national achieved classic Herero for virtually living inside of a casino and attempting to discredit everything or anything you write about, technical or otherwise.  From he beginning, technical and mechanical systems are not 'my thing' as my believes, desires and nature is somewhat interested and desirous of other things within the casino, most times anyways. 

I guess back to basics, if I don't like eggs and bacon I would not order it or look at it, let alone eat it.  If I don't want to laugh, I don't watch the Comedy Channel or find a joke to read on the internet.    Simple, no?