You said:  "IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability."



4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Yes, absolutely!  However, I have not played Vegas for a few years but do plan to return soon.

Here is a highlighted sentence of their article you linked to.  "Guests must also avoid having other players or MGM employees in their videos and photos. They must also not record audio of the actual game and can't play music or other audio from their device."

As far as MGM and Caesar's properties, we were always allowed to take pictures within the high limit rooms.  At least in the open areas or adjacent to the tables, as long as we didn't aim the phones at the other patrons, etc.  At least that is what we were told.

As far as snapping screen shots of the board or table we never asked or really desired to. 

As far as streaming, I do know there are several YouTube regulars that stream table games and have been doing so for a few years.  Although I know they come from non MGM and Caesar's properties. 

In general here in the Midwest it is extremely different from property to property.  We have casinos here that absolutely no phones allowed at the table and others that even provide charging plug ins under the rail and they could care less about use.  Others, you have to get up and make a call or text out of your seat.  Some allow me to snap a screen shot with no faces captured, while other absolutely forbid doing so.

Gizmotron you are exactly correct.  Not one doubt!

That email was from an Offshore Casino coupled with numerous, actual online casino concerns. It was in an Asian country. The email was a small part of a much greater and in-depth series of conversations I had with the officials at the property and business end. 

The so-called 'programmers' are more switch flippers and observers, but that is what they call them.

Yes it is theft not one doubt, but then again so is three card Monty on the streets of New York City. I am not defending them, I know 100% the highest majority of online casinos cheat, some with great blatant 'flipping the switch' after the bet is placed type of tactics, to a very mild, 'all we did was take away' the highest wagering player's edge and allow the smallest wagering players to win.

I was given this in detail explanation of how the applications are applied by a casino B&M and online official, that had been part of it for about 10 years. This was back around 2018.

What was unique I feel was this was a B & M casino, large without any doubt and professionally appearing in all aspects. Governmental gaming license, etc. They also had numerous leased floor spaces with gaming tables brought in and controlled by the leased operators. Those leased spaces were individually owned concerns but under the licensed authority of the casino.  Those spaces were allowed to set up online casinos as well as using their own floor spaced tables with their live dealers for in person open to the public gaming.

The casino would assist the leased operator with the logistical aspect of the technology for a percentage commission of the revenue realized by their leased space partners. In gist, that is one aspect to a very crooked world of the online gaming business.

FYI.  The leased spaced pricing was based upon actual space, not revenue collected.  The online end of it would be a set fee plus a percentage of the collected revenues realized. 

I have never supported online gaming and never will and the very large supporting stone to that was just a few months ago. This is when I removed the online banners of supposedly a reputable online casino concern on this very forum.

What happened was the online casinos refusal to pay me commissions on five members that signed up and deposited funds along with gambling on their site through my forum. In plain words, they cheated me and if they cheated me for that, I can only imagine what they do to their gambling patrons! How do I know they cheated me? Because those five sign ups were members from my forum that signed up, deposited and played all under my control and direction with my funds. They outright told me, that not one of those five were linked to my forum. All false! Case closed. They lie and cheat and if they did that to me, they certainly do it to their players.

Why did I have five people signed up through my forum? Because a member of this forum complained to me that he won about $800.00 within a week after signing up and was refused to withdraw his win money. I'm not going to get into the details, but the win was clear, it was deposited into his account and I don't believe there was any cheating whatsoever from the documents that I seen. A week after his attempt to withdraw it, the withdrawal was challenged and refused. They came back with a 60 day time frame hold and additional play necessary for the member to pass their, "new player checklist and the quick win be deemed as legitimate".

Again case closed. Online Casinos cheat, lie and steal from countless patrons.

Here is part of the email I received prior.

"........there are numerous ways to follow and track our players, believe me when I say that Glen.

Our software we write, purchase and altar has safeguards stitched in it. Our programmers are experts with all forms of Stitching algorithms with applications called PTGui.  PTGui is panoramic image stitching software for Windows, macOS and Linux. Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result.

We can employ or relinquish these type of controls at will. Slots and table games of all types, anything we offer online. Some jurisdictions have no concerns about these practices, while others only audit or verify on certain days that a minimum amount of win is being disbursed to the players of a gross amount of revenue we receive. A practice known as a guaranteed percentage being given to the players.

We track IP addresses as well as players Wagering regularly. We can easily alter an outcome of any electronic game and by doing so the highest majority of the times it will be within jurisdictional law. However is it ethical, absolutely not.  But it is a business decision based upon the number of players as well as the frequency and type of wagers being placed.

Yes we have secure and very complex RNG computers. We are occasionally audited and we will always know when the audit will happen. At times only minutes prior, because we have to allow access to the jurisdictional officials that are plugging into our system to verify the RNG method that we are using. It is virtually only a flip of a switch to go from one type of software to another.

Just because there is a live dealer, does not in any way dictate a pure random outcome of any game. Likewise any outcome of any game without dealers from electronic table games to slots................."

Last night, sitting and talking about the game.

1).  Do not ignore the game to its true principles.  And that is exactly what almost all players do because, of their relentless frame-of-mind.

2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them. 

3). Ignore the past as total irrelevancy when the fire erupts.  Because if you do not, all you will do 100%  is pour fuel on it.  Guaranteed.

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

6). Thomas Paine said, "The mind, once enlightened cannot again become dark". 

The absolute most unintelligent award, goes to..........the Las Vega casino maid that idolizes Daddy, Master and the King!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/las-vegas-maid-stole-768-170236431.html

I have mentioned 'The Stride' before. I try my best to keep it in mind while playing. You will always begin on the black line (see picture). Success is your session goal and failure is your loss of buy-in funds.

Although it will seldom happen, where a player goes straight to success or failure, he will usually hover within the areas between even and success as well as even and failure. Point here, is be conscious of this fact and remain conscious of it while you play. I do believe it has the power to guide you and allow you a better and clearer realization as to what your decisions are producing or taking away from you. 

Successful people do not bring success to a gaming table, but most of the tangible successful people sit down with that attitude close to or at 100% mark, each and every time. But being successful or unsuccessful in many things of your life really has nothing to do with playing the game of baccarat.  Unlike what so many truly believe. 

Success in the game of baccarat for each session we are talking about reaching your goal and winning money. The amount varies from person to person. As well, failure is the loss of your buy-in funds no matter who you are or what goals you have, period.

What so many fail to believe in and remember is, that the shoe is the shoe that will present each and every hand the way it is set to. Nothing can change it or alter it. What does happen and what hurts us are the following:

Emotions

Frustrations

Money Management Methods (Wrong & Lack Of)

An unclear understanding of winning and losing

A failure to leave with win money

A failure to have proper knowledge and use of buy-in versus bankroll funds you are risking

In my opinion, most all players create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action by their outcomes. Often irrespective of the decision making process. That is exactly the point and reason where they go wrong. What it takes, is foresight (intangible), planning (tangible) and a solid base (tangible) to completely and without wavering to adhere to and get what you really want. Because what you want, most always, will not quickly fall onto you or in front of you. And that is why so many players waiver in their decisions and play recklessly.

You have to judge decisions on a process, rather than an immediate outcome as a general rule, bar a few clear advantaged events occasionally that will present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results/outcomes within a section of the shoe, that are so blatantly positive or negative that can be to your advantage, just use it to improve or change courses of action to your benefit.

Remember, when you sit down, buy-in and get your stack in front of you, you are walking down 'The Stride'.  Where you wind up from there depends on the things I have mentioned herein. 

Asym, You said: " BTW, I do not think randomness is beatable.................".

I am not trying to, and it cannot be scientifically or mechanically done.  However, I found numerous countermeasures to play with randomness and find or capture the opportunities and advantages that present themselves. 

I have done extremely well over the years.  Yes I have lost some, but I have won a heck of a lot greater! 

Please do not get the gist of what I am trying to say mixed up with what most would say about it.  And that is, I believe I can beat randomness and all of the side quarks that sneak up with it.

Asym, And you said; "Glen, it's a very good post filled of ideas I've implemented in our play.
I don't recall the times when while waiting to place a dubious bet, your suggestions came to my help and believe me or not, I was more right than wrong (even by not betting at all, of course).
I even named them as 'Al spots'. Maybe I'll make some comments on that at my section."

Well, I am trying to put into words and examples what can help, assist and define various baccarat events, etc.  Not easy and very time consuming.  I do appreciate the verbal and written acknowledgment. 

I put a lot of serious time into what I posted.  Of course I'm biased, but I do genuinely feel it is the fruits of my good and bad experiences. 

It is NOT a science, it is a non-tangible skill with unknowns attached.  Always.

Thanks Mark, Glen.

Think about the following and if you find it interesting and just maybe the case.........just maybe..........re-read my entire very long thread a couple of times.  Truly think about the below, maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them? 

To take advantage of opportunity within shoes of Baccarat, you will also have to face adversity (lack of opportunities).

#1). This is a long read!  If you are serious, sit down and read it, absorb it and comment on it.

#2). This is a subject that affects us all, we all have our opinions on it and while some are hell-bent how it affects them, others could care less. But I know that if you understand randomness and its advantages and disadvantages, you can profit nicely from the game.

What may or may not present itself.    And to me, that is the absolute key, the absolute Bac player's advantage.

Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well. 

Understanding and defining everything that might come about is unrealistic.  Although it is usually used as a defense against any type of non-mathematical or statistical result from being understood and used by the theory type of players, but in all reality, it works more so, if used in the correct manner and interpretation.  Meaning, the player has to have the ability, vision and experience to reason with the info and data he is instantly compiling. 

Even as another, whom I believe is a real player at B&M's casinos said on another message board, "87% of all Bac games are 1's, 2's and 3's.  So stay within those 1's, 2's and 3's section and you will win more consistently."  Okay, great theory.  Not easy at all.  What you are really doing is pre-planning and scheduling your wagers, with the presentments of the shoe having to match your desires and planned bets.  You are not matching the presentments of the shoe, just because you figured out what the shoe does the most over so many statistical hands studied. 

I do agree with the 87% figure.  It is just that after so many years of playing Bac in B&M's all over, I just know you might deal with a greater amount of the 13% shoes than you will the 87% shoes.  At least for the time you sit down to play.  As well, even when you are at those 87% shoes, what is to assure you the 1's, 2's and 3's will continue?  You have an infinite bank roll, you have a certain amount of buy in chips to risk. 

Statistics are compiled from pretty large amounts of played shoes.  Just say out of 1 Million Shoes which would be approximately 80 Million Hands played, that the 87%/13% actually existed, true and correct.  That means, 10 Million Four Hundred Thousand hands were not 1,s, 2,s and 3's.  That is huge.  And all that number will do is climb, using 10 Million Shoes or 100 Million Shoes, etc. 

I am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them. 

There is no way to assure yourself, that you are within any percentage section of a mathematical or statistical result of the game.  What I gave you above regarding the 1's, 2's and 3's, is just one example of the tens of thousands of systems, advises, info insights, triggers, etc., etc., etc., that is floating around out there about Bac wagering. 

The only things that exists all the time in Bac is randomness and uncertainty.  The players put different spins on each depending on what they are experiencing.  Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.  Again, just depends on what a player is experiencing with the shoe presentments being made as well as his wagers.  What it really boils down to is, that all wagers are correct as well as, not correct at the very same time.  Just depends on who you are, the winner of the hand or the loser of the hand. 

Baccarat, Probability & Randomness Thoughts

These are strictly my thoughts after many decades of playing the game of baccarat within B&M casinos.

*  The highest amount of people will attempt to apply some type of mathematical and statistical "Mumbo Jumbo" to the game with & while extremely miscalculating math, statistics and probability.

*  Important point: 'It's more random than we think, not it is all random.' Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for all forms of hard work, skills, professions, scholastic degrees, etc.)

*  As much as we want to 'keep it simple, stupid', it is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous to ourselves when playing baccarat or in fact, anything to do with casino games whatsoever.

*  Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

*  Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance and it does not matter if that is pertaining to baccarat, casino gambling or in fact, most any type of business.

*  One common theory for why people pursue leadership as well as idols, is because of 'social emotions' which cause others to be influenced by a person due to physical signals like charisma, gestures, and stride.

*  This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all 'puffed up' in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful/desirable  person in no matter what you are doing, participating in or even playing within a casino.

*  'The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation.'

*  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)

*  Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative 'WHATEVERS'.
  Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.  IMO, applies to countless things in our lives, not just baccarat and gambling.

*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

*  We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can realize informational and financial gains by getting an insight or an advantage of some type, etc., that most times it will falsely influence you to make the wrong decision, applies enormously in gambling at baccarat.

*  Every man believes that he is quite different, better, smarter, and as well just plain more valuable than the next.  Almost all of us think that the next man can not offer anything of use, intelligence or benefit to them.

*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

*  The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous standing) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and 'cutting edge' research, AKA 'Mumbo Jumbo').

*  There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside.  Almost all people gambling will have the toughest time understanding this as well as applying this to the game of baccarat.  Why?  Because it challenges their intelligence and emotions.

*  Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain strategies will be fruitful and countless ones if played on a regular basis (everyday) will prove themselves worthless or just plain wrong, etc.

*  If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefiting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events that will come with the game.  They have to and they will, in complete contrary to what almost all players want, desire or are willing to accept.

*  Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle, but these cycles are often short to medium term successes, all of course in time relevance. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long term. That is what the masses of baccarat players will not subscribe to or accept and believe.  The same can said for setting huge goals.  Unsustainable and sub-optimal for the long term.

*  Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between 'this has never happened' and 'this will ever happen.' You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty.  Which is exactly the way it is.  And when dealing with baccarat, getting 85 wagers correct and 15 incorrect can also be applied and do it without conformation and proof.

*  There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong.

*  Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event.  Does that mean the other 49 out of 50 was wrong or false?  Same with the theory and the application of mathematics.  As that too may not apply to every situation or event. 

*  It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances apply, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share.

*  Pascal: 'the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.'  My first thought: Yes, but what if you believe in the 'wrong' God?  Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in?  Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed?  To me, it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God?  So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here.  IMO and only IMO.  But I am writing here and you are reading.  Again, you do not have to believe me or anything I write.  You write and give it a true.  Whew, another thought I had to put out there. 

*  Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again.  Then you accomplished a false positive goal and you have to work even harder to move on once again to a higher and a better plateau.  That is why I wrote many things about plateaus and levels, remember?

*  Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.  Simple, true and applies to most all of us baccarat players.

*  Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing).  A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.  When you hit the win with the huge payoff, you never did anything wrong or negative.  LOL, but so true.

*  Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward.
 
*    We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy when others are involved, otherwise it would always be mass confusion, arguments and stalls.

*  Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid.

*  We seem to focus too much on local changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend.  Same as what is happening in the shoe of baccarat. 

*  'Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.'

*  Emotions are 'lubricants of reason.'  We actually need to feel things to make decisions.  We do not think so, but that is not the way it works.

*  Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic.  If you did, you would have no time to actually employ or live the things you so desire.

*  Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.  Which so many gamblers will never ever understand or adhere to.

*  How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.

*  Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.

*  Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault.  You executed the move that you failed at, not them.

*  The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.

*  Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.  It takes skill to realize when that something is there to act on and how you will act successfully on it.

*  "We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good 'aesthetics, ethics and wrong, fooled by randomness with us in baccarat, seems to flow from just that."

*  When baccarat players win, they suddenly begin to black out all reasoning, past mistakes and negativity until they begin to lose once again.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Some posted previously.  I revisited and merged a few threads of mine and added because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Which is, not to present what it is setup to produce.

Thanks for reading.  Comments, thoughts, experiences?

Here is another shoe with 4 Fortune 7s from a couple of weeks ago.

Good shoe, good rhythm, excellent flow. 

F7's at hands 19-25-46-72.

See picture 2, there was another playing only banker bets on the top and bottom lines of the Bead Plate.  Every time it would come up adjacent and to the right side.

New shoe.  Actual B&M play a few days ago.  Personally, I love this I wrote above: "But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times." And that means, you can not win every session.  But also it most certainly means, you have to lose hands being played in order to win.  I laugh so incredibly hard when I read on the internet, how most preach their 3 or 4 unit stop loss, etc.  Why?  Because to me, that is absolute insanity as well as employing roadblocks to nice size wins.

Sat down at hand 33. There was an empty table. And hand 33 was the natural player after two back to back players. One tie was out.  My thoughts, 0-1-2-3 ties, shoe usually produces clumps of events and they continue for sections. With that in thought, absolutely spot on in what was happening.

I wagered for Banker and won. Wagered for a second Banker and lost.  I wagered again for the banker for the cut, only one tie out previously and it did cut but also, the shoe was strong in the beginning (Section 1) and it was producing weak events after that (Section  2). Just came off of a 12 chop chop section. There was a few doubles and it was starting to clump again. It was a tie, and it was a three card 9-9 tie, which at the 5-Treasures Baccarat game would've been 75 to 1 for the side bet.  Anyways, I wagered the bankers side after the tie, now was hand 38 coming up. Parlayed the full win for a second Banker and it was a natural 9 Banker over a natural 8 for the players side. 

I cut down about half of the wager and another tie came out. I cut it down a bit more as I did really like the cut to the player side after that third tie came out, but I just felt a few bankers were due because it was clumping up a little bit. I was wrong. I lost the wager. Now several people sat down and a group of four were clearly talking how they were going to outsmart the shoe, etc.

They were all on the players side. One other person was with my way of thinking. He put table max on the bankers and I put about 3Xs what I had in my last wager that I lost. Bankers comes out. Everyone is now hell-bent on the chop chop reappearing. Both verbally as well as their wagers are placed on the players side of course. I wagered the bankers and F7 for $20.00 as well as the dragon bonus for $30.00. I was wagering the F7 for $20.00 since I sat done as well as a few dragon bonuses.  Hit several dragons which pretty much funded my F7s. 

Now here we're go with the next 8 hands and 3 Fortune 7s within those as well as a 3 card 8-0 dragon bonus win, since it's still fresh on my mind.  First picture I snapped is hands 1-52.  I am going to outline below hand 42 through hand 52. 

Hand 42.  9/A players.  10/2 bankers.
          Face card players 3rd.  5 for bankers 3rd.
          Fortune 7 plus dragon 6:1 bonus.

As I always said, I would have to roughly estimate that after a Fortune 7 it cuts to the players about 85% of the times.  I stayed wagering for the bankers and of course everyone continues with extreme confidence on the players side.

Hand 43.  Players natural 9. Bankers 2/face.

I remained on the bankers and neg martingale as well.

Hand 44.  Players face/7.  Bankers 10/6.

I remained on the Bankers with a second negative martingale. 

Hand 45.  Players 3/3.  Bankers 10/7.
An exact opposite of the previous hand.

Cut down a little for the next wager.  Remained hell bent on the Bankers and still felt that clumping up forthcoming. 

Hand 46.  Players 10/A.  Bankers 10/10.
      Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 10.

Once again, remained on Bankers with the exact same feelings and thoughts as I did on hand 46. My wager included another $20.00 F7 and a $30.00 Dragon.

Hand 47.  Players 7/5.  Bankers 3/7.
      Players 3rd card 9.  Bankers 3rd card 7.
      Fortune 7. Plus dragon 4:1 bonus. 

Once again, everyone was focused on the chop chop and verbally reasoned it out as they were all placing their wagers on the players side. 

I remained on the bankers while increasing my bankers side wager and keeping my F7 and Dragon bets as well.


Hand 48.  Players 9/2.  Bankers 6/5.
        Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 8.
        Bank won by 8.  Dragon 10:1 bonus.

I remained on the Bankers side with the side bets.

Hand 49.  Players 5/5.  Bankers 9/7.
        Players 3rd card 6.  Bankers 3rd card A.
        Fortune 7.  (See picture below, yes a bit
          unusual).

I remained on the Bankers with the same side bets.

Hand 50.  Players 10/5.  Bankers 8/3.
        Players 3rd card face.  Bankers 3rd card 5.

I remained on Bankers with the same side bets.

Hand 51.  Players 9/6.  Bankers 10/4.
        Players 3rd card 10.  Lost.

I remained on Bankers with the same bets.

Hand 52.  Players natural 8.  Bankers natural 8. Tie
          Push the Bankers bet and push the Dragon bet.

Now the rest of the shoe and briefly what happened.  See the 3rd picture below.

Hand 53.  Players 6/6.  Bankers 8/4.
        Players 3rd card 6.  Bankers 3rd card 6.
        Tie.  Lost both side bets.

Hands 54-58.  5 players back to back making up a total of 6 players and 2 back to back ties.  The players hands were strong. Like reducing the bank to zero or 1 on 2 of them and the other 2 non-naturals, the players 3rd cards would increase the players side to a total of 8 or 9. 

The table was all wagering on the players except for me.  I just didn't feel it, especially after the back to back ties and the natural for the players that followed those ties. I lost easily at least $1,500 of my win money.

I remained on the bank and caught all four back to back bankers hands 59 through 62. I parlayed a couple of times so I got back basically what I lost. That is what I meant when I say said before, you have to know how to lose in order to win at times. Please remember that.  Is it a scientific mathematical calculation that is supported by statistical results?  Absolutely not.  But there are other possibilities and advantaged probabilities that you learn from experience. 

The rest of the shoe was ones and twos after those four back to back bankers. I caught a few singles and a couple of the doubles. I did not wager every hand.  Probably lost as many as I won in that last Section of the shoe. 

I won several thousand. I should not have continued Wagering against those players after the F7s and that first set of 4 back to back bankers.  But I was confident on the bank and could not get away from that frame of mind.

It was a nice balance out with the 8 players to the 7 bankers after that second 4 back to back Bankers (hands 59-62), towards the end of the shoe I must say again. If you break it down in Sections as you are playing you will gain a huge advantage along with the other things that I continually talk about and this was a perfect example in so many ways.

Fortune 7s are the bankers wins with the red/blue dots at the 11:00 and the 4:00 positions.  I circled them in the picture for those that are unfamiliar with them.