Banker had 2 times, 3 IAR and the third cards for the first 3IAR were a 6-8-9 in that order.  The only other guy and myself say to each other, that 7 is coming, look we had 3 perfect setups for an F7 win if we got a 7 card on any of those 3rd ones.  Then the second 3 IAR, the third cards for that 3 IAR were a 6-9-8 in that order.  Another perfect set of 3 chances if we only got a 7. 

This was the beginning of the shoe.  The first 3 hands were 3 IAR banker, then a player, then a banker, then a player, then 2 bankers, then a player, then the second set of 3 IAR bankers came.

Only the other guy and myself at the table playing.  We were both betting max Fortune 7 each time.  So like 12 hands were out now.  I looked at him and said, what do you think?  He shrugs his shoulders and says, no feeling.  He places min wager on both the players and the bankers and a very small F7 wager.  It was a tie.  He does it again, and it was a players win.  I sat out both times. 

After that second time, I was like, this isn't going anywhere.  I wagered bankers side but no F7 wager.  The other guy playing is back on banker and max F7 wager.  Dealer deals.  Players have an 8 and a 2.  Bankers have 2 face cards.  Players third card is a 6.  Bankers third card was a friggin 7 for the F7 win.

Why is it almost always like this?  The first hand sitting the F7 wager out and it appears.  Happens quite frequently IMO.  Not just with F7 wagers, but with increased large wagers on P or B and also ties, etc, etc. 

Some type of phenomenon I guess. One of many, within an actual B&M bac shoe when you really think about it.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Posted 8-22-2019.  Revisited 2-26-23 because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Not to present what it is setup to produce.  Thanks, talk later, Alrelax.

We are all different at the table, the highest majority of the times.  That doesn't mean we both, or me and another, can't get to the same exact decision many times.  But it is really the peripheral thoughts and beliefs that will excel us into further and larger wins, knowing how to take wins and allocate percentages for hold or continuance, time to play-time to stop, etc., and so on.

There is a heck of a lot more than wagering and it's selection.

It's in my book review section within my blog.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=8988.0

I did a review on it a few years back in 2017.

Might be something else in there you guys like?

In reference to your above post.  In my words.

The Way We Think (Especially at the Baccarat Table!)

"It will happen"--"It has to happen".  Those are two of the most frequent sayings a player will here.  And at times, yes they both do and yet at other times, never.  Some might not say, never.  They explain it as, "then you are grasping, no evidence, just wishful thinking, etc.

Large wins, then nothing.  Like WOW!  Complete fizzle out, then turns into a demand to prove something to no one except myself, that I can win again or more.  Always the same, never changes.  Years and years of playing, different properties, different states and does not matter whether Asian, White or Latino, same same, does not change.

Here is another one, "Monkey See Monkey Do", the list can go on and on and on.  Okay, let us get going on the purpose of writing this now. 

I was coming into work this morning.  I was exiting a gas station/c-store parking lot onto a side street.  I wanted to make a quick left and go about 40 feet to a main east-west through-fare and hang a right turn.  However, this guy has to come up and literally block my exit and he had to wait for the car in front of him to get a break in traffic to turn left.  Of course he could not have left me room to go across and out, he had to block the way and stop smack in front of me instead of 15 or 20 feet before creeping up to the car stopped in front of him anyway.  What was he thinking, what was his perception, closer to the other car waiting and he would go faster?  Too much trouble to stop, let me out and then creep up to just wait anyway?  There had to be a logical explanation rather than, "I am just a jerk and I shall block the drive so this guy cannot get out and has to wait because I have to wait"?  Maybe, but I do doubt it.  I think it had to do more with perception, initial thought, etc., than the latter. 

One more, 'My Cousin Vinny', yes the movie, I love it.  Anyway, remember towards the beginning when Vinny was in court at the arraignment of the two kids and he did not understand the procedure for saying Guilty or Not Guilty?  Well, here is what happened:

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Mr. Gambini, the next words out of your mouth better be "guilty" or "not guilty." I don't want to hear commentary, argument, or opinion. I don't want to hear any facts or evidence. If I hear anything other than "guilty" or "not guilty", you'll be in contempt. I don't even want to hear you clear your throat to speak. Now, how do your clients plead?

Vinny Gambini: [intimidated, but the words go right past him] I think I get the point.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: No, I don't think you do. Now you're officially in contempt of court! Would you like to say something else and go for two counts of contempt of court?

Vinny Gambini: Not guilty.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Thank you. Not guilty plea has been entered for the record. Probable cause hearing will begin tomorrow at noon. Bail for both defendants will be set at $200,000. Oh and bailiff, take Mr. Gambini into custody with them... and set his bail at $200 for one count of contempt of court.

Okay, Vinny had a different perception of what me and possibly you heard the judge say.  That is exactly what I am referring to, each one of our thought process, interpretations and perceptions might not be the same.  Well, the same thing happens at the baccarat table based upon each one of our past experiences, plateaus and other factors that are different for you, me and others. 

          *****EXPERIENCE--PERCEPTION--THOUGHT PROCESS*****

Experience, Perceptions and Thought Processes.  A lot in those three words, believe me!  Perception is probably the largest and the most confusing to each of us at the baccarat tables.  In fact, huge in baccarat as players tend to place wagers on what they think that they interpret will be coming up for one reason or another.  How the player thinks and reacts will equal, interpretation of the information the player observed.  As well, the past experiences, good or bad of that player.  Past runs witnessed, quantities of runs, infrequency of runs or chop-chop/alternating lengths, 1's-2's and 3's, 1's and 3's, doubles, balanced shoes, imbalanced shoes and lots more.  Lots and lots more.  If the player has not experienced certain things, then he does not know what might come out and when he starts, he will certainly be in the dark as to its formation reality and what could happen.  Please, do not misunderstand the aforesaid sentence for prediction or anything of the like.  With a reasonable player, with common sense and a player's mind, that is conscious of reality rather than wishful thinking and dreaming, prediction is not relied upon in the typical sense.

If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about.  So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much experience, perception and thought process is used in a skillful way, rather than prediction wishful thinking and dreaming, based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled something like, "how to win at baccarat".

I am saying experience is huge along with an open frame-of-mind, the ability to interpret your perceptions within a clear thought process and the ability to pounce-on-it or stop playing and book a win.  That is why so many newbies seem to be the real deal and then a ? or ? shoe later are fizzling out with giving back all the win money followed by an aggressive attempt to recapture the win just lost, they have no ideas whatsoever how they won what they just lost in the first place.

3 Kinds of Perceptions will generally make-up the players thought process based upon his experience.

False Perception.  An erroneous perception of reality in baccarat.  Just a self-inflicted vision of concept and belief by the player.  The player will convince himself and thus be completely deceived by a false perception and subscription to his current wagering selections based solely on his past experiences or what others are mumbling and telling him to do.  The player will always rationalize out what seems to be fantastic and successful but the false perception will soon surface and cost him lots of money.  When he wins using this, it just fuels the soon to erupt fire that much greater.

Temporary Perception.  The player is attempting to calm his lust to win, usually after a period of false perceptions, just fizzled out and cost him a large amount of his win or buy-in capital he had.  Since perception is extremely hard to actually define and harder to actually understand by most people, the temporary perception is more of a fleeting, some right and almost on track type of result for the player which could send the player into larger wins or aggressive losses.  REALIZE WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS AND HOW IT HAPPENS!

Self-Correcting Perception.  The hardest to explain but here goes.  Almost elementary psych but one can very well relate to, self-correcting perception to learning.  How the younger school kids, say elementary school aged and how they are easier to convince and change their mind set then middle school aged and how middle school aged kids are easier to convince and change their minds than high school kids and/or adults would be.  But self-correcting perception, within baccarat is the player catching himself following others especially when they are wrong in their bet placement processes.  The player realizes he was drifting and not paying attention or at least he blames that as his excuse for following others and not paying attention, etc.  It would also cover the player's ability to correct himself with reverting himself back to the basics such as, remaining conscious of his plateaus, past experiences, capital, bet selection methods, duration of playing time, variances and win holding, etc., etc. 

In closing, if you think everything is 'cut and dried' with a simple bet selection/bet placement method and what you will walk away with or place as a stop-loss, it is not that simple.  Although it might be for those that have a one-side one-vision playing style, but for those players that are more successful, they realize that there is no easy definitive 'cut and dried' protocol of wagering, stop loss and win stop amounts. The latter has absolutely found the positive and tangible effects of being conscious and employing other factors and events into their basics of wagering, cashing out and playing time.     

Bally from 2014.  Good reading, no.......great reading without a doubt.

As you wrote:  " Ratio of amount of money the player can expect to lose -to- total amount of money wagered, including subsequent wagers like doubling in blackjack, raising in ultimate texas holdem,...etc. Optimum strategy and only base bets."

Most importantly IMO, to use those figures you would have to be hell-bent on playing your session a very very long time.

As we have discussed, there are no mathematical stats that can apply to a section here or there and a shoe or two or three. 

Why?  Because there are huge variance, gaps and related events that come into play that are irregular and without measurable consistency points that happen.  Depending on the way we play, we might make huge money or lose huge money when those irregular events happen. 

And they happen frequently. 

Reference Lists.  Lists are general as well as specific to any one source or concern. 

What applies to the Bellagio will be different to say a casino in the Midwest.  What applies to/from a mathematical statistical expert taking published house edges, etc., and multiplying those will be specific for a purpose of generalization. 

As well a casino that has 25 or so Baccarat tables will place bac a heck of a lot higher than another game on the same list, that rates higher than bac for a different casino.

And so on........

Before all the high-tech electronics, unlimited streaming, instant expert answers to virtually any and all questions and much much more, there was great television memories on ABC NBC CBS and PBS as the basic 4.  The sirens of Adam-12, the loud roar of the engine from the Munster Koach on The Munsters, motorists being chased down the highways by "CHiPs", the helicopter blades of "MASH", the lollipop sucking take no flack Kojak, action packed medical drama of EMERGENCY and of course, bad boy bright red with that large white vector stripe Ford Gran Torino (the real star LOL) of 'Starsky and Hutch'.

And somewhere between all the high tech and those great television shows were some fantastic off the wall Baccarat games for me in Atlantic City and occasionally in Vegas that I experienced.

Like when I want to revisit the comforts of pre-streaming television, I can turn to Nick, COZI, TV LAND and several other cable TV channels and fall right back into the predictable rhythms of the new opening scene and the conflict introduced just before that first commercial break which somehow, magically, gets resolved just before the closing credits roll, each and every show.

And you know what, back in those days the baccarat room was just about the same as watching those kind of TV shows. The conflict introduced before the first commercial break, that very same conflict totally resolved prior to the closing credits began was the equivalent as to how we all viewed the shoes we played out. After that it was on to another shoe without much remembrance of any type on the previous one.  Not very many people played for the long term or played and thought anything else besides, what was happening right then and there. 

And as with most all TV shows these days which are actually mini-series, miss the beginning one and you have no real idea as to what is happening or who is who, etc.

But really with the procedural and elaborately plotted serial shows as I dub them, these days part of the appeal in my opinion is to have a low barrier to entry. Simply uncomplicated, so viewers can 'Zone Out' and scroll through their phones and won't be missing much. As long as the viewers are into them from the beginning of the season. 

A depressing commentary on attention spans these days I know, but also a real testament to the irresistible draw of the familiar.  When something is missed, just fill it in with what the viewer believes. 

Baccarat was a total different atmosphere pre-2000 and post 2000 wise that is. Pre 2000 clearly not so combative, without a doubt less systematic, staff and dealers actually trying to make the players comfortable, happy and resolve all problems prior to escalation without any doubt whatsoever.  Even the interaction among the players was generally one of total camaraderie and same side defense against the house, rather than I will wager against you and show you what a fool you really are, type of people. It really was like a TV show just generally a 2 1/2 hour classic show each episode instead of 30 minutes. 

You know what I can't help but laugh over—-all the time, how back then when the shoe was hot, almost all the players every single time would be taking large sums of chips out of the rack all in concert with each other. And these days it's almost always the complete opposite,  because I think they are following some type of miniseries for the long run. One or two people these days will be winning and all the others will be losing.

I guess today's play in so many ways really does resemble today's TV miniseries shows. It requires a full season, long run commitment. Structured that way because of things the casino has done as well as the people playing and everything they read on the high-tech Internet.

Myself, I'd rather get into it for a few hours and get spit out at the end of the shoe, with or without a profit, but not dependent upon anything except 'section' presentments, rather than being hooked into an intricate narrative-long term saga that desires to swallow you whole and maintain your presence while you are controlled by the long run waiting for your conflict to be resolved.

Golden Steer Steakhouse (old school and over the top) (free standing and not casino related) https://www.goldensteerlasvegas.com/

Peppermill (another freestanding and not casino related)
https://www.peppermilllasvegas.com/

Both Golden Steer and Peppermill up by the Wynn.

Spring Mountain Road area, street north side of Treasure Island and west of i15 interstate.  Several places.  Used to always go to one of the local SE Asian restaurants and it was open 24 hours a day.  I posted numerous pictures of the place and food there on the forum a few years ago.  There are a few other real cool places outside the casinos on Spring Mountain Road as well.

888 Korean BBQ
https://www.yelp.com/biz/888-korean-bbq-las-vegas-2.
Place we cook at our table.  Reminds me of the places in Manhattan around 32nd Street off Broadway.  Kind of place we do a 3-4 hour dinner. 

Picasso and Prime @ The Bellagio

Jasmine (Always Always eat there) @ The Bellagio

Old Homestead @ Ceasers Palace

PHO @ Treasure Island

Andiamo Steakhouse @ The D  (yeah yeah, it's downtown but it's fun, noisy and they have 2 bac tables up on an elevated stage like side of the main floor.  Drink some, play Macau style and rip and tear up the cards, just act like fools while winning.  The D is super noisy like I said.  Not the steakhouse, lol. And the steakhouse is suburb!).

There are others, those are just some of the favorites.

Quote From Asym's Posting:

"Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe."

Here are just a few to remember and prove the point.

There is always a trigger for one or two wagers, but that trigger will be there now and gone for the next 8 times, or occurring repeatedly for 8 times and gone the very next 8 times it comes around.  Playing a trigger or two for a flat bet or a flat bet with a Martingale either pro or neg, will only get you even in the short run and a loser in the long run, promise.

The profitable way to play baccarat is when something strong comes along, you pounce on it.  And 'Strong' does not only mean a streak of bankers or players consecutively repeating itself.  Make a couple winning wagers, positive progression the winnings and then pull down and stack up a bunch of winnings, lose the last hand when it goes away and repeat.  Then forget what happened and watch for the next 'whatever'.

And, remember you have to lose before you win.  With that said, then you continue.  Furthermore, when you win, you have to know how not to lose.

I really don't think it's a point of knowing how to win, I think it's more of a point of understanding how to win or understanding what winning is about.

But understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times.  Those that say they found wagering 'such and such' after 'so and so' and how they hold a win of 'xyz' each and every time they play, are pure 100% liars. 

This year, summertime, we will do Vegas.

I will bring $50k for my bankroll.

I still have a great MGM brand host whom can comp any MGM property for me/us.  I have some insight with some other brands still, some hosts of mine from pre-2017 are gone and others switched properties/brands.

The results that you experience at the table will not and cannot follow any sort of governed or stable distribution of presentments or results from the shoe.  Because the possibilities as we already established are far too great to narrow down to a certain section of 80 hands or a cumulative total of 160 or 320 or 640 or 5,000 hands, and so on, that will produce what we all are seeking, winning hands.

Good morning. The pandemic may have cleared the way for a casino in New York City.

(From the New York Times):

Betting on Gotham


Gambling companies have dreamed for decades of operating full-scale, Las Vegas-style casinos in New York City. Now, state authorities are on the brink of opening up the city, the country's last major untapped gambling market, and a flurry of extravagant proposals are competing for a handful of coveted licenses.

Imagine roulette wheels perched above the women's wear department at Saks Fifth Avenue. Blackjack by the boardwalk at Coney Island. Card games within spitting distance of the United Nations. Or maybe even a Caesars Entertainment casino steps from the lights of Broadway.

It is easy to understand why so many gambling companies are interested. Greater New York City is home to close to 23 million people and a destination for many millions more tourists each year. "For gambling companies, New York is their Mecca. It's the last big prize in the United States," my colleague Dana Rubinstein, who is covering the casino competition, told me.

But until recently, state law and a wall of local opposition short-circuited any serious planning for downstate casinos. What changed? A mix of economic and political factors accelerated by the pandemic. They made casinos in New York City or its suburbs not just palatable but desirable to state leaders, though locals will still have a say.

Today's newsletter will explain how New York City casinos developed from a notion into a serious prospect.

A decade in the making
There is a long history of politicians from Nevada to Louisiana using legalized gambling to try to stimulate the economy and boost public revenues. The idea has been to push gambling that was once done on the black market onto the tax rolls, and more recently, to keep residents from crossing state lines to gamble.

New York voters first approved a constitutional amendment to allow major casinos in 2013, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Native American tribes were already operating casinos in New York. But politicians from both parties — many of whom received generous contributions from the gambling industry — said that new casino sites could help create jobs, attract tourists and generate much-needed tax revenue.

To try to maximize the economic impact, New York's plan stipulated that the companies only be licensed at first to operate in areas most in need of revitalization, well outside of New York City. In the years that followed, casinos opened in the Catskills; outside of Albany; and elsewhere in upstate New York. Some have struggled to meet economic projections.

New York's gambling plan did provide for the possibility of as many as three downstate casinos, but only after a lengthy delay. And it did not guarantee that the licenses would be granted.

A pandemic-era shift
Now, state leaders are using the same logic that they applied to upstate casinos to try to accelerate and all but ensure the expansion of gambling in and around New York City. Gambling revenue nationwide hit record highs in 2022. In essence, New York is looking for a bigger piece of the action.

The pandemic only made that desire more urgent. Covid hit New York City, the state's main economic engine, especially hard. Midtown office towers remain only partially full, some wealthy individuals have left for lower-tax states and tourism has yet to rebound to prepandemic levels. The result has been less reliable revenue in city and state coffers, particularly as one-time federal aid sources dry up.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams, both Democrats, hope that the new casinos can help offset those financial losses and spark other beneficial development. Lawmakers have projected billions more dollars in licensing fees and regular tax revenues. Analysts, though, caution that those projections may be overly optimistic, and skeptics of the plans say the East Coast gambling market has already grown oversaturated.

There is also another, less obvious but still powerful driving force: New York's hyper-influential hotel workers union. When the pandemic hit the city's tourism sector hard, the group said as many as 95 percent of its members were out of work. Now, union leaders see gambling projects as one of their biggest opportunities to create more jobs for their members. The shift has been so important, it is reflected in the union's recent decision to add "gaming" to its name, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council.

The group has made itself a useful political weapon for Democrats in recent years, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and providing scores of campaign volunteers. In exchange, the union has exerted considerable pressure on state leaders to fast-track casinos around New York City, often working closely with gambling companies themselves.

You must engage in realism. Absolute 100% lack of  attitude with the physical adherence to realism during the situation you are engaged in.

After years of play, discussion, study and debate, I would have to list the four most important things to be conscious of, practice and totally engaging in, when you are gaming.

1)  Emotional = Complete neutralism but positiveness to enter into parlay progressions through readiness caused by confidence, camaraderie and related happenings.

2)  M.M.M. =  You must have a MMM that will benefit you with visible and physical positive results when you win as well as limit your losses. Gaming is available all the time, your winning is and hopefully going to produce positive results approximately 50% of your wagers and you must be able to define, use and employ additional tactics to add advantages to your buy-in and subsequently to your bank roll.

3)  Plan = Have a plan and stick with it when spot-on without deviation, but the ability to abandon when it is not profitable. Do not attempt to change, turn, convert, or believe you were were 'wronged' or that the shoe will totally pay you back in the short upcoming hands that still exist, etc. 

4)  Ability to Leave = You must have the complete ability without second thought or re-calculations to leave, whether winning or losing. The list is long but countless events will ruin wins, countless events will only add to the losses.  Both will happen, to experienced and non-experienced players. 

Quality & Substance = Stop believing the fallacy of the unspecified, undefined and 'magical', always beatable  events that are supposed to be the gateway to riches. They do not exist. In other words and in reality, if whatever it is, is producing wins for you within the shoe, continue it with the limited successful wagering decisions and acknowledgment of same, EVERY SINGLE HAND. If you do not, you will lose.

Ego & Attitude = We all have those two, no matter if you are aware of yours or not. But I will tell you something, from experience it is best to check them both when you sit down at the table. No two ways about it.

I promise you, they will hurt you the highest percentage of the times. You are not playing against the other players, the dealer or even the casino. You are playing with the shoe, please understand what I have preached, and preaching and what winning sections and shoes offer.

Your Play = Wagers/Bets/Thoughts.  (Yes thoughts are included as well). Must match what the shoe produces, nothing else. Anything else that you allowed to enter the picture, the process, the instant hand, etc., is additional baggage that will most likely hurt you in numerous ways.  Think about it and figure out what allowed you to win.  NOT what caused you to win!