1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

AS YOU WROTE:  "My opinion differs on this one. I attempt to beat the game every day/ when Im not playing Im researching, studying the game, discussing with others,  ..etc on how to improve and beat it. So I guess I am obsessed and live to beat the game. Much like trying to beat the stock market. One must be obsessed with winning as both are very arduous tasks. Sometimes I receive favor /sometimes I don't."

Well I actually meant, play until you win amounts greater than previously or you totally lose all.  So many players wherever I go, are winning and when engaged in conversation, they are telling me their goal is to beat their previous high/record win or they just keep randomly adding on win goals as they continue playing.  Then when they start losing, their new win goal reverts to recouping their previous win they gave back.  Frustration and emotional decision making enters.  Huge disadvantage. 

THEREFORE, based upon that, my original meaning would be:

Accepting 100% some sessions will not be win sessions and governing your wins with a great MMM plan is what I was referring to. 

Not, being a dedicated hard researcher, risk taker, learner, putting in the hours or anything along those points.

Quote.................


Any thoughts by anyone?


Thx in advance, kfb

A very controversial subject. 

But.....all a machine can do is 'deep' shuffle, or 'light' shuffle.  No way to put in order card values, etc. 

And....if you see same cards and 1 or 2 lesser/greater
point value consecutive cards appearing in repetitive order, use that to your advantage.  Again, as I have done very well with, following the presentments and not wagering for something I desire.

And.....I strongly believe the cut, at least if it's greater than a half deck deep, as well as the burn, squashes any order the shoe could have been set up with.

I have done countless trials years ago with 8 decks, shuffling, putting in order and then hundreds of cuts and burns, no order of my 'pre-set' cards was able to be held.

The questions are tough, the questions are ones that most never find the answers to, never really want to deal with, or ones that are quickly dismissed as unanswerable.  But they MUST be!

I desperately struggled for years to engage into finding answers and just thinking about it stressed me out countless times. So I simply avoided the questions and the soul-searching it demanded of me. Until............Recently.

The tangled and the misunderstood realm of the game entered my mind and remained in the forefront at the end of every single session I played. The presentments, the shuffle, the dealer, the amount won or given back, the published and written Q's & A's and stories. All ran through my head on the way out of the casino after each session.

Think about it. The shoe produces presentments that fall within the sphere, the domain within which anything and everything can occur, prevail, sometimes dominates the field, or fails to produce anything recognizable. Other times the presentments are totally recognizable and they match our beliefs, desires and decisions spot on, sometimes even allowing us to win like 7 or 8 times out of 10 leading us to fantastic wins. 

And with that said, onward with what this is really about, decisions and making them while winning.  How would it have been great if we previously left? Think about it, sure we are after anything to protect our buy in and a small or smallish win.  But IMO and experience, the greatest wins and 'great' sessions come after an 'up and down' of my buy in.  Which means, a drawdown of my buy in, evening out and getting a little bit ahead, once even twice, like being on a roller coaster ride. 

Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, visually and physically which will definitely assist in relieving the person's emotional downturn and stress factor, making it easier for clearer and more focused decision making.  It does for myself every time I get within the event of a nice ongoing winning session. 

IMO there is no magic percentile when to stop or continue play when you are winning. But one thing for 100% certain, if you stop, you cannot win more. And the more you win the more you want to continue playing. I don't care who you are, that applies to each one of us.

One example comes to mind that happened to myself not long ago. I arrived at my regular casino and no one was playing and one of my absolute favorite dealers was sitting there bored to death. We engaged in some quick small talk and I was gonna go get something to eat and kill an hour or so and come back. Anyway I took out only $100 from my buy in risk capital I brought and I laid it out on the table. She said, 'WHAT'?  I said, one hand be nice, just checking you out before the real play when I come back from eating. I put $80 on the banker and $20 on the fortune 7. She gave me a fortune 7 for an $800 win. I played a few more hands, and I won most of them. Not many hands later she gives me a second Fortune seven. A few people sat down at that time. By the end of the shoe I had over a $2,000 profit, got up to well over $3,000 and gave back about $1,000. She is telling me to take it and leave. Not a bad return on the next to nothing investment of my only $100 buy in.

But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. 

And I remember her, seriously telling me to take the money and leave when I was at the $2,000-$3,000 mark. Thinking back on that, at least twice I almost did, but the ups and downs were quick and I stalled out at that $1,800-$2,000 mark and again at $2,900-$3,300 mark as well. Then I took off again with winning most all parlays and positive progressions for 1-2 or 3 hands and losing only those when I backed down to my base unit wagers.

So if I left with say $2,500 I never would have reached the $7,000 to $8,000;mark. I was basically doing a 1/3 risk of what I was winning once I reached the $3,000 level which I have written about countless times in my money management method, that I normally use.

Here are three quick examples of what I am talking about here actually was applied and gave me clear advantages.

1)


2)


3)



NOTE:  Reference #3.  I have several pictures of the scoreboard and will post them.

So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at. At least it is for myself and most of the people that I play with at the casinos. Buy in safe-a but of profit. But I do know playing on all win/won money is what I strive for.  But, it gets confusing at times. How much longer to quit, risk the win money further, leave even if winning fails to continue, etc., etc.

So many repeatedly write/say on the forums, win 1 to 3 units and leave. Lose 3 to 5 units and stop. I can't fathom that and I don't play that way. I don't have those kind of win stop, loss stop rules. I can never see making anything substantial if you play like that. Maybe I'm wrong? However mine are like so many. They want to win sizable amounts and I do, quite often. My loss stop is my buy in money. My buy in is my risk capital for the session. My win stop is unclear without definitive numbers. Once I takeoff, if I do, I govern myself by my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method.  Which works like a rock-solid rule manuscript maintaining success or having further profitability 1,000,000% of the time!

It works extremely well and I know it does, because I have no regrets if I was winning nicely, then gave back 1/3rd win and continued my play with my second 1/3rd of my win as my playing money. If I took off again, great, that is what my 1/3rd sectors are designed to do. If I lost a 1/3rd sector and struggling with my second 1/3rd sector, I am normally done. I have my buy in plus 1/3rd to 2/3rds of my win.  Cash out, leave, done and that emotional, 'I shoulda and coulda' doesn't exist!!!

So many win and see their session as unprecedented and a labored win they so rightfully deserved. They get into a zone, tuning everything out and become their own worst enemy most every single time they win or when the wins are happening for them. But they have nothing to govern themselves with.

It is easier said than accomplished at the table, but the only way to really excel is to focus, be extremely conscious and forget the past and what the shoe has produced or failed to produce in the past hands. Wager with the shoe's presentments and do not wager for your own desires as to what the shoe should produce or what your desires are. 

We talk about it all the time, especially with the ones we actually gamble with. The questions go something like; "How long do you play" or "If you are winning how long do you stay" or "If you are losing, how long will you attempt to come back" or "If you keep winning do you just up and leave at a certain point". And so on and so forth.

Tough, real tough if you soul search. By theory, so simple. If you are winning and start to lose, leave. If you were losing and can't get above your buy in or your buy in is depleting, leave.  But, it is not easy because we all know the presentments can certainly match our decisions and blast us into the positive if we were losing, or if we were winning, can blast us even further ahead. 

There are no easy, simple answers and never will be. However, you will wish you left much more than staying when losing. Because you experience the loss of your funds if you lose them. However, if you win/won or broke even and left, you probably will not really know what would have happened to really come about with a definitive conclusion. 

The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something; 

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. 

As soon as someone writes the below or along the lines of James Bond; the only possible motive is to steal the gambler's money, no matter a casino, systems seller or author.  Period.

"If you're looking to sit down at a Las Vegas casino table game with few complexities and a lot of James Bond-style gambling fun, baccarat is your go-to game."

"The purpose of gaming is to win".

Alrelax, 2023

....."it's more intricated to be grasped as being a by product of both math and statistical features.".....

But stress, you never know when it will adhere, appear or disappear.   

Written 5 years ago.  Pertains to many discussions today.

Asym?
Kung Fu?

Well back in Atlantic City prior to the close of the Atlantic City Hilton (previously was Bally's Grand) our casino hosts used to walk around and hand these out for extras, besides all the comp they arranged, etc. 

Sure we had promo chips, which were always play until you lose, unlike todays, one time use style.

We used these primarily at the gift shop or restaurants when we didn't want to get a hold of a host or we could give them to our non-comped friends.  They were valid for any bearer. 

Like I said, unlike today!

"If he wins this session, he's a hustler
If he loses this session, he's an A**hole
Because he can't afford to lose $100!
And he is really really really leaning towards the A**hole side right now!"

SAID OUT LOUD BY; A person playing along side of me at a bac table last night about someone the guy knew who was winning nicely and then beginning to give it back.  (And eventually did)

Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

PDF
fin-2008-g007.pdf    85.46 KB
FIN-2008-G007
Issued Date
August 01, 2008
Guidance Subject:  Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

This guidance is intended to assist casinos and card clubs1 with the reporting of suspected money laundering, terrorist financing and related financial crimes. This guidance contains examples of circumstances or "red flags" - based on actual reports, the observations of examiners and the experience of law enforcement - that may indicate the presence of money laundering, terrorist financing, and related financial crimes.

Casinos that are subject to the federal Bank Secrecy Act ("BSA") have an obligation to implement anti-money laundering programs that include procedures for detecting and reporting suspicious transactions.

Casinos are required to implement risk-based anti-money laundering programs that assist with the identification and reporting of suspicious transactions, including employee training and written procedures on recognizing and addressing indicia of suspicious activity and vulnerabilities that may arise in the provision of particular products and services.

Recognizing Suspicious Customer Activity

Casino employees who monitor customer gaming activity or conduct transactions with customers are in a unique position to recognize transactions and activities that appear to have no legitimate purpose, are not usual for a specific player or type of players, or are not consistent with transactions involving wagering. Many casinos routinely obtain a great deal of information about their customers through deposit, credit, check cashing, player rating and slot club accounts. These accounts generally require casinos to obtain basic identification information about the accountholders and to inquire into the kinds of wagering activities in which the customer is likely to engage. Attempts to Evade BSA Reporting or Recordkeeping Requirements

Be alert to customers who try to keep their transactions just below the reporting or recordkeeping thresholds, such as:

Two or more customers each purchase chips with currency in amounts between $3,000 and $10,000, engage in minimal gaming, combine the chips (totaling in excess of $10,000), and one of them redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer seeks to cash out chips, tickets or tokens in excess of $10,000, but when asked for identification for completing a CTRC, reduces the amount of chips or tokens to be cashed out to less than $10,000.

A customer pays off a large credit debt, such as markers or bad checks, of more than $20,000 over a short period of time (e.g., less than one week), through a series of currency transactions, none of which exceeds $10,000 in a gaming day.

A customer receives a race book or sports pool payout in excess of $10,000 and requests currency of less than $10,000 and the balance paid in chips. The customer then goes to the cage and redeems the remaining chips for currency in an amount that is less than the CTRC reporting threshold.

A customer, who is a big winner, enlists another individual (who is not a partner of the customer in the gaming activity), to cash out a portion of the chips or tokens won to avoid the filing of a CTRC, IRS Form W-2G or other tax forms.

A customer attempts to influence, bribe, corrupt, or conspire with an employee not to file CTRCs.

Using a Cage Solely for Its Banking-Like Financial Services
Be alert to customer activity involving unusual banking-like transactions at the cage, such as:

A customer wires funds derived from non-gaming proceeds, to or through a bank and/or a non-bank financial institution(s) located in a country that is not his/her residence or place of business.

A customer appears to use a casino account primarily as a temporary repository for funds by making frequent deposits into the account and, within a short period of time (e.g., one to two days), requests money transfers of all but a token amount to domestic or foreign-based bank accounts.

Minimal Gaming Activities Without Reasonable Explanations

Be alert to customers conducting large transactions on the floor with little or no related gaming activity and without reasonable explanation, such as:

A customer purchases a large amount of chips with currency at a table, engages in minimal gaming, and then redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer draws casino markers (e.g., between $5,000 and $10,000) which he/she uses to purchase chips, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and then pays off the markers in currency and subsequently redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer makes a large deposit using numerous small denomination bills (e.g., $5s, $10s and $20s); and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal gaming, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for large denomination bills (e.g., $100), a casino check or a money transfer.

While reviewing computerized player rating records, an employee determines that a customer frequently purchases chips with currency between $5,000 and $10,000, engages in minimal gaming, and walks away with the chips.

A customer using a slot club account card inserts $2,990 of paper money (or an amount just below established thresholds) into a bill acceptor on a slot machine or video lottery terminal (e.g., contemporaneously inserting $5s, $10s and $20s), accumulating credits with minimal or no gaming activity, presses the "cash out" button to obtain a ticket. The customer goes to three other machines and conducts the same activity for $2,990 at each machine. Then the customer redeems the tickets for large denomination bills or casino checks with different cage cashiers at different times in a gaming day.

A customer transfers funds to a casino for deposit into a front money account in excess of $5,000; and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for a casino check.

Unusual Transaction Characteristics or Activities
Be alert to transactions with any unusual characteristics, such as:

A pair of bettors frequently cover between them both sides of an even bet, such as:
- Betting both "red and black" or "odd and even" on roulette;
- Betting both with and against the bank in baccarat/mini-baccarat; or
- Betting the "pass line" or "come line" and the "don't pass line" or "don't come line" in craps; and,
the aggregate amount of both bettors' total wagering is in excess of $5,000.

A customer routinely bets both sides of the same line for sporting events (i.e., betting both teams to win) and thus the amount of overall loss to the customer is minimal (known as hedging).

A customer requests the issuance of casino checks, each less than $3,000, which are made payable to third parties or checks without a specified payee.

A customer furnishes a legitimate type of identification document, in connection with the completion of a CTRC, or the opening of a deposit, credit or check cashing account, which:
- Does not match the customer's appearance (e.g., different age, height, eye color, sex); or
- Is false or altered (e.g., address changed, photograph substituted).

A customer presents information for the completion of CTRCs for different gaming days that contains conflicting identification information, such as:
- Different address or different spelling or numeration in address;
- Different state driver's license number; or
- Different social security number.

A customer makes large deposits or pays off large markers with multiple instruments (e.g., cashier's checks, money orders, traveler's checks, or foreign drafts) in amounts of less than $3,000.

A customer withdraws a large amount of funds (e.g., $30,000 or more) from a deposit account and requests that multiple casino checks be issued each of which is less than $10,000.

A customer arranges large money transfers out of the country which are paid for by multiple cashier's checks from different financial institutions in amounts under $10,000.

Criminal Activities
Be alert to a customer conducting illegal activity, such as:

A customer conducts transactions that the casino believes to be the result of some illegal activity or from an illegal source (e.g., narcotics trafficking).

A customer or a group of individuals forge signatures or use counterfeit business or personal checks to obtain currency, chips or tokens.

Questions or comments regarding the contents of this Guidance should be addressed to the FinCEN Regulatory Helpline at 800-949-2732.

1 See 31 U.S.C. § 5312(a)(2)(X) and 31 C.F.R. § 103.11(n)(5)(i) and (n)(6)(i). In this guidance, the term "casino" is used to refer to casinos, card clubs and other gaming establishments that fall within the BSA and FinCEN's regulations, unless otherwise noted.

Financial Institution
Casinos

I have had countless extreme shoes but there's one from last night, that will stand out for a long time. I wasn't at my regular primary casino but I was at another property that I sometimes play at and I knew some of the people playing. I joined the game and it was near the end of the shoe, it was just winning a few and losing a few, not doing anything. Got into the new shoe after the shuffle and burn. 

It was late, after midnight, most of the faces were long with obviously lost funds.  I was next to a lady I have known from the casinos for several years now.  She was stacking her chips in what I call the pyramid style in front of her, which is three or four stacks against the rail and then one less stack in from the rail, then one less stack in from that and usually the header on it, so it's simply shaped like a pyramid. 

She had nine stacks of $250 each. She told me she won a few $250 bets and parlayed them to $500 and lost the $1000 wagers or won those $1000 wagers and lost the $2000 wagers.  After we played numerous hands sporadically, I looked and she had $2500 left. I had a little bit more than that but not much.  I asked her if she was going to buy-in again or what her plans were. This was turning out to be a win-push-grind down a little type of session.  Nothing really happening in so many words.  Then she told me she had several chances left trying to build out $250 each time, nine times. She told me she was into the session with the money on the table she had for $4000.

She stacked all of her chips together and said out loud, "I got to chance it and if I win this, I got my money back and I'm up a little bit and I'll leave, if I lose I'm going to leave". 

She turned to me and said, "come on let's do it, Bang Bang Bang on the Door Baby".  Oh yes, The B-52s, man she's trying everything I'm thinking to myself.  She really is a hype player and when she is hyped, she becomes real aggressive, seen it so many times. 

She puts the $2500 on banker, the hand goes quick with a 6 for the player and the bankers got a two card 7. She looked at me and said, "you really believed I was going to leave huh?".

She immediately stacks up the win on top of her wager, slides it down to players side, not one bit of hesitation.  But her hand is still on top.  I'm following her simply because she is on a mini roll and she is great about catching up and winning a few, exactly what she is in the process of doing.  She takes her hand off of her wager and announces, "let's roll".  She flops over a face card and a 5 for the players, the dealer flops over two face cards for the bankers.  She gets the third players card and sighs, exhales loudly and flips over a 7.  She says, "now we get reduced to a F******* 2!".  She stands up, leans in a bit and is pointing at the dealer in the process of flipping the bankers third card over.  Of course she as well as several others are loudly reciting, "Monkey-Monkey Time-Show Us That Monkey".  The dealer flops an ace!  She goes crazy!  High fives all around and fists pumping into the air.  Several large wagers were on that one. 

She is sitting with $10,000 now, roughly $7,500-$8,000 of win.  Looks at me and says, "whatcha think".  I said, "up to you, you call it".  I been mimicking her and I don't want to change anything.  She pushes it all up on the bankers side, but as normal she keeps her hand on top of it.  She has a table max wager and I am near the same.  She looks at me once more and says nothing, just looks.  She nods her head forward, as if saying, yes—no?  I push mine out on the bankers and say, "you work the cards, just do it". 

Cards come out and there are a few people wagering on the bankers with us and two others on the players.  Players return a 10 and a 3.  She works the bankers cards and goes through verbalizing what the lines are before looking at the corners.  She has a 4 line and a 3 line.  She turns and turns them and peels them both back.  A 9 and a 7.  Players return a 7 and she immediately goes into celebration status, "we got this, we got it!".  Dealer slides her the bankers third card.  She peeks at the side and mumbles a 2 line card, a 4 or 5.  She slid the card up a bit, still upside down, puts her finger smack in the middle of it and peels it back, while repeatedly saying, 5-5-5-5.  She flops a darn 4!  Tie hand.  She looks at me and of course, isn't very happy at all.

Now she is rushing the table.  She is leaving her wager on the bankers and while everyone else is fidgeting around with their wagers, she puts her hand on top of her table max wager.  Looks at me and says, "you know after something like that, it is usually a players natural coming out".  I said, "let's switch our wagers down to players".  She keeps her hand on her wager, still in the bankers spot.  She says at least three times that she doesn't like it.  Dealer taps the table twice, but she isn't paying attention.  She takes her hand off and proudly and clearly announces, that we are ready. 

Players return a 3 and a 2.  Dealer slides her the two bankers cards and she laterals them to me.  After the standard, "next time let me do that" from the dealer, I look at the cards.  I got a face card and either a 4 or 5 I tell her.  She is pleading for a 5 of course.  I saw the dot in the middle and without turning it over, tell her it's a 4.  She punches me in the shoulder telling me how she knows the players are either going to pull a monkey or a something small.  I flip the 5 and she smacks me once more and smiles a tiny bit.  The guy wagering the largest on the players peeks at his third card.  Throws it in face down after much ado.  Dealer flops the 8 the guy threw in.  My comrade is yelling, "snowman-hello beautiful snowman". 

We both color up.  Another one for the books. Short and sweet in many ways. 

SIDE-NOTE:  Camaraderie is great IMO, of course camaraderie does not and will not change values of what is set to be presented.  However, in many cases camaraderie allows many bac players (including myself) to wager larger amounts, hype a winning section or group of hands and other things that allow us to win larger and additional hands that we might not have have been able to do otherwise. 

Huge advantages to us, but still (as I write) so many continue to play for what has won and lose, then go into the recoup stage).

As you said:  "Best strategy to employ is to chase what we name as 'minimum profit goal', situations where 'more likely events' are entitled to come out clustered at least by 1 step.
More intricated is the situation where a negative event will be played as 'isolated' as being affected by huge volatility."

Like your summation:

"General probability and actual probability",

How about if we say—General Probability = Actual Probability = Doability.  ??

Am I Wrong?:  "In my opinion and that of others I respect, admire and know are experienced and serious players, is the following. There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period!"

Am I Wrong?:  "Now with the above said, with passion-purpose and experience you most certainly can profit from table games within the casino. But it is never going to be by reading a simple book or following a system you purchased with all kind of enticing promises and so-called 'proven results'. Never ever, seriously."

Am I Wrong?:  "...their material can never be the definitive protocol to consistent, easy, repetitive and for sure winning sessions.  Never ever.  Period."

The rest of what I wrote, I was trying to bring out points for attention getting and the silliness many believe that mechanical wagering will always prevail, are dead wrong.  Especially the flat betting and continual recouping betting.

AND YES ABSOLUTELY: "Meaning win more $ than one loses."  But NOT with an easy mechanical safe-guaranteed-never lose a session-system just waiting for you to rack in the cash, etc., etc., believe in me for less than $100.00 (or whatever it costs) for sale product.  Never.  (Meaning every session or damn near every session with the ludicrous and asinine claims/enticements promised.)

AND YES ABSOLUTELY:  "However, it typically isn't due to some wizardly bet selection methodology. Certainly not with a preplanned mechanical bet placement,...etc. . Mostly with money management and discipline (and most importantly handling losing sessions)."  Of course, a hell of a lot more than 100%.....!

OMG!  I received this gift yesterday.  Absolute Beauty with its Leather Binder.  Brand new! Gold Gilted Pages!  Silk Marker Strap!

The Special Edition Of:
THE BACCARAT CASE

FROM: The Notable Trials Library

This edition was published in 1992.  Originally published in 1933. 

This Special Edition has a introduction by the very well know, Alan M Dershowitz, Esq. 

The Baccarat Case is about A British Nobleman and close friend of the Prince of Wales that had cheated at baccarat.  The trial in the law courts, Queens Bench Division of London during 1891 about playing Baccarat the year before in 1890. It is about slander of William Gordon-Cumming against Mrs. Arthur Wilson and others.

Going to be a great read of historic legal history involving baccarat.  A nice addition to my book collection!