KFB, this applies to what you wrote about your play in many ways. 

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11676.msg71744;topicseen#msg71744

Get rid of your False Hopes-False Confidence and Blindness within your baccarat play.

Put the time and trouble into improving yourself/your play.  I read it takes an average of 60-90 days for self improvement change to begin.  As far as application of change to gaming, I am not sure, but it's worth a try IMO.

1) Begin with a ritual of REFLECTION on your play. Please see my thread:  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11679.msg71756;topicseen#msg71756.

2) Push the fallacy out!  Misleading and deceptive data, stats, methods and beliefs are super dangerous to your play. Be careful whom you listen to and trust.

3) Do not get hung up on certain triggers as a wagering point. You must learn and deeply understand randomness and how it is presented with or without any clue from a shoe.

4) Dedicate time each and every day to learn about the game.

5) Engage in a real Money Management Method (MMM) that benefits yourself, your play and control with the  sessions you engage in. But engaging in it with a solemn adherence.

6) When Frustration, Emotions and Stress sets in at the table note it and write about it later on. Find the reason so you can ultimately reverse it. It is more than a lost wager, I promise you.

7) Concentrate on yourself, as in You-Vs-You at the table. It is all about you and only you. Do not let yourself be distracted with all the verbal and physical doings at a table.

-8- Allow your Money Management Method to have the last words at a session. Win, Lose or Draw. This is different than engaging in the MMM, (#5 above), this is the faith, grace and priority of applying a session closure, which is vital and the most important.

9) Do not have expectations when you sit down. Learn how to center yourself with extreme and dedicated focus.

10) Engage yourself in the reversing of negative actions you learned you have in regards to playing Baccarat.

Recognize and Practice.  Learn what real consciousness, focus and neutrality mean and how you can possess them and apply them at the table with your decision making ability.

Do not hold yourself down with anything you cannot control. But you MUST be totally conscious of the fact every wager and  decision you make, you can control.

"At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?"


Math doesn't necessarily dictate the order.  Math might dictate an 'equalization' at times, but never the order and the 'presentment times' or not.

Another way to look at it is when math does apply, the presentments become schoolbook of sorts.  When math does not apply, the presentments are out of the norm. However, we can win hands following either way.  The only problem that becomes super pertinent, is your ability to side with both ways and capitalize on both.

Here, I have used this comparison many times.  The cop on the highway catching speeders in the morning.  For a week solid he will be at the same spot, same position everyday-exact time.  Then you don't see him there for weeks at a time. Then he is back and the next day you just 'knew' he would be there again, so you had the highway wide open-no cops back to that same spot.  Except for one problem, he decided to move to a different spot, the spot you were speeding at.

That is why (and the math junkies will cry foul) is playing every hand or a large majority of hands in every bac shoe you sit at, will probably take your buy-in most of the times, especially flat betting it out. 

IMO, one cannot play 'both sides' and win most of his wagers.

For the approaching New Year's.  A little time consuming and get down messy tonight with stuffing some jumbo pasta shells with ricotta cheese, basil, spinach, oregano, sea salt, lemon zest, Parmesan cheese and more! 

With my homemade marianna sauce and olive oil under the shells.

Last picture is cooked with drizzled olive oil and half of them have sprinkled red chili pepper flakes. 

A few slices of garlic bread and some shrimp.  Done.  No left overs. 

Well guys, it's almost here! Hope to meet with a few forum members, once and for all.  Although we are not a heavily trafficked forum, mostly because I refuse to have/allow the drama, spam, systems solicitation and posting all types of nefarious links, etc., we do have some great members here and lots of readership.

Wishing everyone a fantastic year filled with love, laughter, along with all your favorite things and lots of $$$ from gambling! May this year be your best one yet, full of amazing surprises and great moments of all types.

For all of you to have a wonderful year filled with good health and success!

Alrelax
Administrator & Forum Owner

QUESTION TO ME:

"Say you target streaks of 3s and 4s (or 2s and 3s or anything like that): when a superior streak happens (that is a 5+ streak) you have to reset the plan then waiting for new streak classes in the hope they'll come clustered (obviously singles and streaks of inferior lenght do not count).

Long streaks are relatively rare to happen, so it's likely that inferior streaks will come out clustered; sometimes (often) an entire shoe is formed by streaks not surpassing the 4 value.

Now we'll play with a 'sky's the limit' approach because the number of shoe rich of low value streaks overcome those rich of long streaks.
Sections!!!

It's a plan derived from what you've written in your posts."

MY ANSWER:

You say target. I do not 'generally' target in anything-except what the shoe is doing when presentments are forming with something I can detect and/or just plain feel good about placing a wager on. 

Streaks.  Yes-5/6 iar begins the streak, 1s, 2s, singles-chop, doubles, triples, quadruples are absolutely the most common with/within every shoe. Anyway, with that said......

I have a written about it before. I like to reiterate-as reiterating, reinforces!

Here Goes:

Long streaks 9-10-12-14, and more.  Certainly do happen. Posted many of them when I can snap a picture.  True not every session. But they certainly do. 7-8-9 iar, is almost common, not every shoe, but again not rare by any means at all.

I have adopted the, "It Is What It Is", play persona-protocol. Might not mean much to most, but helps on the frustration and emotions end with myself.

'Skys the limit'.  That has to be based/applied around your MMM and wagering win/risk chips already in your possession, or a small piece of your buy-in, etc.  But..........and However, when it happens you do want to be right there, on it, with a few positive progressive wins prior to the take off and then just pull down each win, only losing the last one when it does cut to the other side. 

Here is an example just below.  (I have attached 8 B&M score board pictures to reinforce what I am trying to get across).

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBB

Then:  P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBB

When it's like that or anything similar and you see one more two more iar forming, I sure want to be on it!  So many will risk wagering on/for the 'cut' again and again and get sucked into-the 'cut' has to come, etc. But......shoes do not operate that way. Shoes do everything  and anything, at anytime. Shoes are weak, clump strong, stay strong, weak and strong in distinct patterns, as well as spread out although-out the entire shoe, etc. Take that into consideration and being conscious of that, onward.

I have caught so many great longer streaks 7/8-10/15 + iar because of being on it when it went one more and then just continued iar repetitiously.  Then after a few positive progressions, I just enjoy pulling down each win and gladly surrendering the last one in the streak.

Ref 'One More' Mentioned In The Above Paragraph:

One More, as what I described above are 1s, 2s and 3s, and then a 4th was made. Or 1s and 2s, 3s and 4s and then a 5th was made, etc.  Just throwing a written explained picture out there.

You have to remember, you cannot control what the shoe is producing, but you can control the way you respond to what is happening, if you are conscious of it. So many players fail to practice what I just said the the previous sentence.  Why do I say that?  Because everything comes and goes in the game of baccarat and thus, confuses the highest of the highest amount of players.  What the shoe is producing, what the shoe has not produced, what the player desires, what they player believes in, what the reaction is by others present, etc., etc., etc., and many more. 

And you truly want to know something? When I have two really good options to choose from, I challenge myself to wager with the one that scares me the most.  (And I am not just referring to a B or P wager, might be a small or large wager, a flat Vs a pos progressive, a series of wagers, etc.  Because seriously, that is likely the one(s) that is/are going to help me grow. Re-read the paragraph I just wrote, think about it in detail!

I do not know, probably our methods of play are different, but I generally 'look for/wager with' whatever is happening.  Doesn't matter chop-chop, doubles, streaks, triples, 1s and 2s, etc. But I do look for those traditional streaks which are long repetitious iar Bankers followed by repetitious iar Players.

With all that said/laid out, let's go back to the above example:

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBB

Now let's say one of those 9 iar Bankers came along.  It would look something like this:

P-BB-P-B-PP-BB-P-BBBBBBBBB-P

(For example purposes, I was wagering $250.00 as a base risk wager)

Banker bet 1) $250 win $250. ($250 back to buy-in)

Banker bet 2) $250 From win. 

Banker bet 3) $500 Full parlay press from #2.

Banker bet 4) $1,000 Full parlay press from #3.
              $1k win pulled down.

Banker bet 5) $1,000 Pull down the $1k win.
             
Banker bet 6) $1,000 Win pressed to bet #7.         
Banker bet 7) $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet -8- $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet 9) $2,000 Pull down the $2k win.

Banker bet 10) $2,000 Lose as Cut to Players.

$8,000 won.  Initial $250 recouped after first wager. 

My reasoning is, if I was at least ahead the win of $250 after hand 1, hands 2 and 3 are on the casino, not affecting my buy-in at all. 

My reasoning regarding hand 4, pulling down the $1,000 all win money, I would have a complimentary 4 additional attempts on the casino to build out 4 wagers of $250 each.  That is playing a bit conservatively, we all agree it's tough after hand 4.  But a lot of the times, not all, I would stick with that wager amount. 

If that happened, I would set my buy-in sideways for hold. The $8,000 won, I would dedicate $2,000 to 8 additional $250 attempts. I would put $1,000 additional into my original buy-in (of $1,800-$2,500)and lock up, no double thoughts whatsoever, the $5,000 remaining from the win money.

Once again my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd (about) with win money. That is what I call a M.M.M.  It has to govern you. Not maybe, not possibly, but has to 100%.

Conclusion:

Adjust. Be totally conscious. Be super careful of desires, but don't forgo a trend-pattern-happening, etc., that is flowing and you see it or are capturing it easily. Most will say those are intangible events to be involved with, but they are not. To myself, they are tangible, but we just do not know when they will begin and end while we are in play at the table in front of a live shoe.

Eight attachments posted below from previous brick and mortar live shoes.

4th one down.  Note the 5B and the 5P next to each other in the beginning.  Then the 7 iar B, 6 iar B, the 5 iar B, the 4 iar B.  No one basically believed, most saying, "no way, players coming out next strong", over and over.  I did extra handsomely on all those  bankers!  Then the 4 players right next to the last 4 iar Bankers to match their 5 iar side-by-side in the beginning.  Note the extreme weakness for the rest of the shoe, all 1s and 2s. 

6th one down.  Classic and exactly what I was attempting to convey to you above.  WOW-O-WOW!  Beautiful!!!  Bang it on the 3rd winning one down with a nice parlay to the 4th hand. Then just pull down each winning payout. Stack one more time at least around the 7th or 8th hand and 'happily' lose the last one, when it cuts to the players. What's the problem?

7th one down.  The 9 iar Bankers, I gave in the example above, I have regularly experienced 8-12 iar, not rare at all IMO.  Yes, said countless times, not every shoe, but not in the rare department at all.  Anyways, here is a 9 iar with 3 5-iar Bs as well.  One players with 7 iar, but otherwise players 3 or less.

As you said:  "b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt."

And that is what can be so clear to one person, yet so fuzzy to another. 

Insights From My Experience:

BECOMING CONSCIOUS OF YOUR EXPERIENCE

Now, IMO, comes the hardest things to become habitual doing.

You have to break the habit of allowing yourself to automatically interpret every experience by believing, what happened-happened for a reason, (because within the game of baccarat, it simply does not). That is what turns off so many so quick and so ruthfully off. Period. Plain and Simple!

Interpret every experience by practicing anchoring your attention, your attention solidly within the instant experience.  Notice any physical sensations and emotions that are rising from yourself and observe the state of your mind. Is it racing, agitated, fuzzy, becoming emotional, or is it perfectly clear?

Become conscious of what you are feeling, because your feelings will not keep you consistent solid and profitable play.

RECOGNIZE YOUR GAME

Your conduct produces the result of your decisions. Those decisions will either generate losses or wins, simple. You have to remember you are the one that makes the decision if you win or lose.

Majority of baccarat players fall prey to what the game represents and how it is presented by most all casinos. Players become senseless, callous and outright stupid. There are no rhymes or reasons that could make sense for doing things that seemingly could never work.

Realize you cannot change what is going to happen with any shoe. When you genuinely do, then you accomplished what the highest majority of players take a very long time, as well as cost to realize. 

Look at the scoreboard and see what has happened, do not believe it will reappear or continue.  Dive much deeper into the possibilities of presentments happening for continued and upcoming hands. 

The bottom line is, being able to clearly see and focus using the game presentments and your recognition of the flow and outcomes that are being formed.

BRICKS YOU PLACE IN FRONT OF YOURSELF

Every single brick that you place on the wall in front of you-makes it harder to penetrate-makes it harder to profit-makes it harder to stay with the shoe presentments.

Information that is worthless and absolutely false in many senses, will be a brick YOU ALLOW to be inset into a wall in front of you-directly between you and every hand, every group of hands and every shoe you play itself.

When those bricks are there-they are there. No matter what, no matter how strange, weird, not ordinary, against all odds or how much you believe in them and how great they seem; They are bricks and will be there as well as remaining there.

Bricks are intangible. Same as systems, counts, data, mechanical wagering based on anything, charting, etc., etc.  Because none of it will allow guaranteed hand after hand wins. None.  In fact, none of it can even guarantee one for sure win. 

You know, but you really do not know. That's what you have to remember and be totally conscious of.

Merry Christmas to all!

Son just opened all his presents and he's got that ear-to-ear smile.  Stuffed from breakfast!  However, already looking forward to Christmas dinner!

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year coming and best of luck to all!

Alrelax
Administrator & Forum Owner

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 24, 2023, 10:13:11 PMThanks Al for your advice!
Actually I do not know much about MM as most of our bets are adhering to a flat betting scheme.

On the other end it's very likely that some pros do not adopt a FB approach, maybe increasing their bets (so risking an X bankroll fraction) at spots considered profitable.

As you sayed, for sure bac pros have learnt the attitude to be (almost) totally insensitive to the natural harsh losing sequences they're entitled to face sooner or later.
Easier sayed than done.

as.

PLEASE:  Take a few minutes and read the following thread.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.msg68512#msg68512

IMO, the single most important item that will bring advantages to pro bac play is a real M.M.M.  It will help curb emotions and frustrations that will build upon losses and add a defense to fallacy that will also set in upon winning.  But the player has to adhere to his method which isn't always easy.

I have written about M.M.M.'s in detail.  I know having one has helped me extensively.

Think about it. 

If you do not play, you cannot win.

If you play, you will not always win.

If you play, you also have to lose. 

If you claim you do not lose and/or you always recover and walk even or with a little win, I say you are lying. 

Simple and Period. 

You said:  "Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt."

But we know, anything can be a streak, or at least I do.  I do not (DO NOT) play/continuously wager for streaks of iar B or P, etc.  For myself, anything can be a streak.  Chop chops, doubles, triples, 1-2-3-4s-3-2-1s, 1s and 2s, plenty more, etc., etc. There are numerous presentations that appear in clumps with no justification. 

And while most all the bac players in B&Ms sit there, mouth physically opened, verbally saying WTF, etc., I am smacking the rack, hard and quick.  Not always, but plenty of sessions.  And that is where a Golden MMM schedule comes into play if adhered to with a solid 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd distribution.

I like it remember the following:  Opportunities in Baccarat are like sunsets, if we wait too long, we will absolutely miss them.  Each and every time.   

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 07:48:26 AMThis statement sounds as the pure proof that baccarat remains an EV- game, isn't it?

as.

Absolutely in every aspect, everyday, every version. 

But..................

Anything and everything happens.  And it all happens in order, out of order and in the unforeseen order.  Catching it and capitalizing on it is what we do, easy at times and nearly impossible to do sometimes as well.  I want to bang them and bang them hard and quick and get out of there. 

Unlike what so many believe, preach and swear by, the longer you stay at the tables, the more you play and/or employ the repetitive mechanical wagering beliefs, etc., will only add up to guaranteed loss.