QuoteBtw our approach, albeit being strictly based upon long term datasets, might not be the best method to beat this game. Alrelax and KFB (among few others) have presented very interesting and in some cases pivotal ideas to play with a kind of advantage.
But it takes a fair amount of experience to know what to do in the intricate situations (that constitute 90% of bac circumstances). And of course 'no betting' is only a partial 'best move'.

Variance

Variance is both a 'quantity' and a 'quality' issue; whereas quantity is impossible to 'forecast',  quality is more affected by dependent variables as any shoe dealt will be the by product of an asymmetrical card distribution where key cards play a huge role over the final outcomes.
Not every time but most of the time. 

In the vast majority of the times, casinos collect their huge profits by exploiting the players' "variance's quantity' Fallacy, that is their 'hope' that things will change very soon while losing and that things will stand for long while winning.

Technically speaking it's just a 'permutation' issue that has very little to share with the HE.
Unfortunately most players don't give a damn about the 'permutation' issue, hoping for endless profitable situations.

We've seen that the permutations tool will affect the 7-step progression cycle, as per each cycle considered, out of 128 possible patterns 93 are winning and just 35 are losing.

More interestingly is the fact that by raising the probability of success, the probability to cross favourable situations considered by a 'quality factor' will be more and more predominant.
Up to the point where after a given rare deviation, our edge will be astoundingly high.

See you ina couple of days.

as. 

And how should a person handle Variance?

Maybe in the following way by learning and applying Neutralism?

Neutrality is the independence for your knowledge and experience, shy of any fallacy and desire, to make judgments and/or facilitate decisions independent of any bias (Fallacy-desire-supposed to be's) which you go along with, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome.

It is rare but somewhat possible. But implies tolerance regardless of how disagreeable, unusual a perspective might be or not be. So, in neutrality decision making you will be expected to make judgments that are independent of any bias whatsoever, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome. Why? Because the outcome is forming, But first the presentments and continued presentments must be made.

The importance of remaining neutral.

It takes making decisions in the game of baccarat in order to wager.  Making decisions entails many things and so many players never really understand their own process they employ.  One of the most positive, supporting and clarifying things you can engage in for decision making in Baccarat, is neutralism.  And here is why.

First of all this is a very serious subject and one that I think everyone can benefit from, if you understand how and why you make your decisions.

The action is super influential at the table.  People winning, people losing, events happening while repeating and no one is on them, to continue, to stop, etc. And there you are, thinking you were the average and just trying to fit in while keeping to your own agenda.

The other day I was playing and there were all 1's and 2's. It went on for almost half the board approximately 35 to 40 hands. I sit down and as soon as I sat down there was five in a row Bankers with one fortune seven. Everybody else was wagering on the players side except for myself. Just one example.  After that, it went back to ones and twos, but eventually both sides got much stronger and everyone remained winning one or two, while losing several in a row because they were hell bent on the thought of the continuation of ones and twos. 

The other day I sit down and finish the shoe and with the brand new one that first started there was about 10 to 12 pure chop chops and I couldn't get it in my head to keep parlaying and moving my bet back and forth with the pure chop, especially in the beginning of the shoe. Coupled with the majority of the hands losing and wining by one point or one natural wining over the other opposite side having a natural as well. 

Approaching limits. To be limited and something else begins. Because there is certainly deviation in most all shoes and the majority of the times it is multiple deviations, not one or two or even three times.  So misunderstood with the exact ring of failing to believe in and practice, neutralism.

People in my opinion, confuse following and going against the shoe in a huge way. Reread that and understand that sentence.

To me, with the correct mindset, they are both the same way because I am ultimately following only presentments. I am not following a trend or a pattern until after it already happens and if I play that way the highest majority of the times I will not recover what I have already lost in the attempt.

Here is another one from the other day:

BPBPBPBP (then) BBBPPPPBBB (then) PBPBPPP

4 things or 2 things?  Think.  Hands 1-8 chop chop one thing.  Hands 9-17 repeating another thing.  Hands 18-21 another thing, chop again.  Hands 21-23 another thing, starting repeats again.  Or is it two things with hands 1-8 as well as hands 18-21 one thing, all chop chop?  And hands 9-17 as well as hands 21-23 and some after also one thing, repeating hands? 

Learn how and why what you believe the shoe should produce, because in my opinion too many feelings and desires influence most all wagering.

There is a message the scoreboard sends out. This is what has happened. Are you smart enough to wager on what will happen? And to most, that would be the opposite. In someways it is, but in so many ways it is not.

At the table almost always, others will be focused on issues and possibilities opposite what you believe and desire to occur. Something to be totally conscious of, is hitting one or two wagers and allowing that to influence your trend of thought. Remain neutral!  Your most prized possession for so many reasons you never even thought possible.

Neutralism

After much thought, strong reading, thinking, playing, looking back with total open mind, I have finally realized the ultra importance of true neutralism.

Get rid of all the preached bull stuff, ask and ask yourself honestly if you have viewed the occurring event(s) differently, meaning from an absolute neutral position, would it have been much more profitable to you?

Interactions between the results and yourself should be neutral in regards to visual and physical exhibits and feelings.  But usually at the baccarat table it is far from that.

A hand is a trait, consisting of a winning side and the losing side. The physical and behavioral characters so repeatedly affected by the hand must be unaffected. 

Neutrality is the independence for your knowledge and experience, shy of any fallacy and desire, to make judgments and/or facilitate decisions independent of any bias (Fallacy-desire-supposed to be's) which you go along with, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome.

It is rare but somewhat possible. But implies tolerance regardless of how disagreeable, unusual a perspective might be or not be. So, in neutrality decision making you will be expected to make judgments that are independent of any bias whatsoever, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome. Why? Because the outcome is forming, But first the presentments and continued presentments must be made. 

So in my opinion and extensive experience, it does best to get away from favoritism from sides and distinct tendency to act upon that favoritism. Why? Because favoritism will promote ignorance, huge bias, double thinking and the simple disability to follow presentments from the shoe no matter the order they are coming out. 

Ignorance, bias and double thinking will, the highest majority of times, not allow you to exhibit neutrality and when you do, most likely you will feel bias and choose not to act on it. A neutral person can be very well-informed and act upon his views with clear thoughts and positive financial thought without being bias into ignorance, decision bias and double thinking. It's that simple.

Therefore the difference of a person with and without neutrality is, that a neutral person can use information, sight and knowledge without being ignorant, not being biased causing double thinking and sway with a quality to his own unbiased thought process. 

NOTE:  Doublethinking.  Accepting both sides as correct. Equality. Viewing both sides equal.  No matter what, no deviation. 

Neutrality requires tolerance. No matter how disagreeable and/or unusual a bias might be presented.  Do not confuse this with a 15 or 18 hand streak of something.  I'm talking about before you get to that point in order to be able to recognize a presentment with its following event, that it just might turn into. 

You must remember, ingrain within yourself, it is the process rather than the outcome. Outcomes must be set aside while the presentments are occurring. They will get you nearly 90% plus of the times.

HIGHLIGHTED NOTE:  Notes, clipboards, stats, pen and paper, etc. etc., that is why it is permissible with notetaking at the Baccarat table!  BE CAREFUL OF THINKING.......'SHOOT, I CAN FIGURE THIS ALL OUT AND SET MY TRIGGERS JUST LIKE THOSE YOUTUBE VIDEOS SHOW', etc.

Neutrality is classically expected to make judgments independent of biases, counting on the process rather than the outcome. But baccarat confuses that. Simply because players confuse themselves. Some will tell you to wager with no bias, others will tell you to wager with bias on the 'deficient' or against the 'too many' for example. Both can be correct and both can be wrong. Often, the difference is incommensurable with no real factual way for pure measurement.  Think about it.

Incommensurable.  NOT ABLE TO BE JUDGED by the same standard as something. Having no common standard of measurement.  Plain English = What happens as a result of something one time, fails to do the same thing another time or several times in a row thereafter or sporadically, but might happen consecutively for a bit. 

Basically in the game Baccarat, commensurability is a concept of science (gambling) whereby theories would be commensurable and we could lay out and discuss those theories to determine almost 100% of the time which one is more valid and useful to be in the winning favor.  The one that won, right alongside the won that lost. 

However, in reality-factual 100% reality, theories in baccarat are incommensurable because all of the reasonings, counts, cards burned through, cards not burned through, events occurred and events not yet occurred, etc. etc., do not sufficiently overlap with any type of complete justification with conceptual framework. Another paragraph read it and understand it!

That is why the gossip and belief happens from empirical evidence favoring one theory over another and inventing the wagers that become muddled, confusing and the winning hands will go on by the way of unforeseen contexts and consequences.

Empirical evidence might be fine in epistemology and law, but in baccarat it should not be allowed at the table!  And it continuously happens over and over and over. 

And if you desire to understand epistemology go Wikipedia it.  Learn the sub fields that make up the theory of knowledge, such as philosophy, ethics, logic and metaphysics. Then, take your knowledge, belief, truth, justification and attempt to package them into a reliable process which will turn acquisitions into true belief which can in turn become a reliable positive process working in your favor while actually wagering on only assumption.

To myself, the value problem is vitally important to assessing the advocacy of theories of baccarat knowledge that are played, preached and talked about.

I go by the following. According to Jonathan Kvanig, an adequate account of knowledge should resist counter examples and allow an explanation of the value of knowledge over mere true belief. Should a theory of knowledge fail to do so, it would prove inadequate.

Knowledge is valuable, but usually used wrong at the baccarat table because knowledge at the Baccarat table is usually absent of all sorts, if not completely of neutralism. Instead, focus on understanding without perception and reason, while hovering afloat between the knower and the mental state of believing.

Think!  Seriously Think!

Success.  Not easy and if it is, it's not really success of any real type.  At least in my experiences anyway. 

Success in Baccarat, seriously not easy. But always trying to accomplish greater, quicker and better wins in new ways, same game.

I spend a lot of time, maybe you do too, thinking about greater profits from the game of baccarat. How can I get those additional profits? Then there are other times when I just think, it cannot get any better the cards are just too slick and as fast as I win it, it will go right back. Okay, a bit exaggerated but point made.

Sometimes I compare myself to others. At different times in a casino, out of the casino, while driving as well as watching TV. Not where I sit and dwell and become envious of anyone or proud I am not them, just a general 'think through' for various reasoning.

But I am what I am. It is what it is. I have the history, I do. I'm sure you do too. I try not to be locked into any certain idea, gambling or otherwise, unless it is working flawlessly. Few and far I admit, but nonetheless.

I don't think I ever said this before but I will put it into clear words. Handling stress and everything affiliated with it; pressure-anxiety-suffering-pain-worry-etc., etc., etc., is something like this.

I think stress is the ultimate feeling to master, tough tough tough. At leaves some people alone, but it hits most of us whether we create it or we subject ourselves to it, more than others. Stress is unrealistic, dismissive, demanding, cruel and certainly ways far in excess than a ton of bricks sitting on your shoulders.

In Baccarat, stress is watching your well-placed Wagers, hard earned money, risk capital buy-in funds, your chips that represent actual cash dollars that can certainly purchase all kinds of goods-services and fully pay bills outside the casino, go from your stack to your wagers to the dealers rack, hand after hand after hand.  That is pure unrelenting stress.

Stress is a gut wrenching, stabbing that radiates from your head, to your heart and right down into the pit of your stomach. Stress blurs your vision, dries your mouth out, stops your brain from a normal thinking process and disallows your hands and feet to remain perfectly still. Stress is strong and stress is uncontrollable to most all of us. Stress pushes us to the limit, as well as beyond the majority of the times when it sets in each of us.

Stress does not flee the body even with a few wins, or once you're to the even point, because stress is real and stress is not a light switch where anyone can really turn it off it will. If it was, it wouldn't be stress at all.

Stress, honestly I hate it. But it's a part of life because of various things I engage in, casino and otherwise. It's okay, my doing. I don't blame anybody. But I have to admit when I do lose my buy-in and risk capital, especially the larger sums, and others say; "better luck" as you were getting up, or "thanks for playing with us", or "don't worry there's always next time", etc., should really just keep quiet because their words are like pouring salt directly into an open wound in my opinion.

I know without stress, there is really no success.  And for myself, I would rather in so many ways talk to, go out to eat with and Q&A someone for hours, that knows the game and what stress really is. Why? Because in my opinion and experience, those people are by far more realistic, smarter and well ingrained with, 'life goes on-improve', type of personality and frame of mind rather than that, 'I'm better just follow me if you really want to win', type of person. 

Seriously.

  Thanks 100%!

Paul Newman, The Colour of Money (1986) quote: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."

Cara Bertoia: "It's hard to walk away from a winning streak, even harder to leave the table when you're on a losing one."

R. E. Shay: "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit."

Phil Hellmuth: "If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time."

Wayne Gretzky: "You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

Terry Murphy: "A gambler never makes the same mistake twice. It's usually three or more times."

Edmund Burke: "Gambling is a principle inherent in human nature."

Baltasar Gracián y Morales: "Quit while you're ahead. All the best gamblers do."

Nicholas Dandalos: "Remember this. The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."

V. P. Pappy: "Gambling is not about how well you play the games; it's really about how well you handle your money."

You said:  "However, If I walk up to the same table with the same parameters above with a goal: I want to win a bunch of money, so I think I'll just full press any win ten times, color up, and go home. That is unrealistic because I know thyself(myself) and can look at my previous results and calculate or at least estimate the likelihood of success or failure.

Many players do not clearly know what they want to accomplish at that session (or if they do have a target its often unrealistic and or the design of ones plan doesn't fit the target). So the probability of success is minimal."

I wrote within the article:  "You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!"

P.S. & BTW.  I try to always say, 'I'm going to win and lose and when the right time comes in, I will smack'em as hard as I can'.

Understanding the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering and how those fit within a great money management method is not all that complex.

In my opinion, to take your game to the next level you must be smarter, better and focused, while being absolutely 'on board' with your play. If you are not, you will add more negative than positive to your game. I promise you with all my heart that you will.

Besides from the tangibles of a player advantaged money management method, such as bankroll, buy-in risk funds, drawdown understanding, 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd division of your win money, etc., there is a very large part of money management methods which you must understand what your plan is, what your goal is and how you are going to accomplish those.

There certainly are intangible stories behind the numbers that can never be known or in any way guaranteed within any shoe. However you must understand the reasoning behind your play and how you capture the possibilities that are actually opportunities.  So, you must have a targeting focus to get you there.  If you don't, you will most likely fail. 

While bet selection and the frequency of them is very important to winning, without a money management method including a tangible working target incorporating the knowledge of minimum, average and maximum wagering, you are failing to add pure advantage to your play.

Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table.

Your wagering that is lost, will create conflict within yourself. And conflict has a lot to do with playing Baccarat in my opinion. Why? Because conflict will change your frame of mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought. That is not good for you. Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about. Stay within your comfort zone.  You can find your comfort zone if you understand the proper use of the minimum, the average and the maximum. 

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go, or if you were remaining neutral, but had a feeling it was going to be a winning result coming about.  As you witnessed  others at the table begin to prosper nicely, conflict can also come. Be aware.

Conflict is a deep and complex subject and all I did after hours of rereading my notes, was just to highlight the above.

Putting it all together. Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are. Such as, are your decisions from the previous hands, triggers and superstitions, the events themselves? Or, are they from the results you have the deduced down from the other people there playing at the table? Huge difference and huge consequences will come about. I literally promise you that. Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to be better, make clearer decisions and be better focused while dealing with the events as a great player should be.

I have learned money management methods properly formed and believed in by players are the absolute most valuable and important advantage to playing Baccarat. A Money Management Method is so much more than a stop loss and stop win for a player. I have written in depth about what a real money management method is and you can certainly find those threads on the forum.

Baccarat tables in brick and mortar casinos have a varied range of minimum and maximum wagering limits. The highest majority of casino properties have limits such as:

$10-$25-$1,000
$25-$1,000
$25/$50-$2,000/$2,500
$25/$50-$5,000
$25/$50/$100-$10,000

Most of the higher limit rooms have a limit such as:

$100-$10,000
$200-$15,000
$300-$20,000
$300/$500-$25,000

There are variations around the country of course, but those above are a good example of the highest majority of properties.

Minimums-Averages-Maximums

You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!

Understanding the limits and your targeting within.

Naturally the first way is to target the table minimum. My tangible thought is, that you will focus on accomplishing at least the minimum without the possible loss of too much of your buy-in risk capital funds. Slowly with little to no stress you make it count with just a little bit of parlay and progression. 

The second way is to target the average, kind of a midway point of the table limits as well as what you observe others doing. Yes, a larger goal and an increase of stress and emotions without a doubt. But if you can achieve the average comfortably, you will end up making a considerable difference above the minimum wagering.

The last target is to be able to employ with confidence, positive wins at risk and within a safe draw down amount, the maximum wagering limit or close to it. This last target must be handled with extreme self-control no matter if you win or lose. This target will place you into a new level but you have to be comfortable with it as well as realize you cannot continually wager it.

So many players as well as system sellers and book authors of gambling, will never agree with me. However, after years and years of observation, playing and realization, I know the importance of expectations, desires and tangibility of each of the three; minimums, averages and maximums. 

THE MINIMUM.

You have to understand each of the three targets and how you can win or lose under each. Maybe the easiest way to do that is comparing each to the status quo. What is the status quo? It is simply the existing state of affairs. The current situation, hand after hand for a small section of the shoe you were actively engaging in wagering on.

So to start with, you target very little. The minimum. Minimum can also be viewed as the default because it is close to zero.

You can certainly think of the targets here as getting onto the interstate and off again fairly quickly from a local side street.  You accelerate to a certain speed, monitor and the readjust your speed and decelerate.  Beginning at the minimum, accelerate to the average and peek at the maximum while knowingly focusing on the soon upcoming exiting points and how to get there.

I'm probably going to get chastised for this tangibility protocol assumption, but not many of us will ever sit down, buy in and begin with the maximum target.

I have deduced down to a tangible definition, we begin at or near the minimum as it is a lower threshold for loss, emotions, frustration and less chance to cloud and ruin our frame of minds we strive (or should) to maintain. For myself the minimum target is used as a default target and to keep me in the game while I pursue the possibilities and opportunities I desire.

THE AVERAGE.

Now about the average wagers at the table. Let's say it's a $25-$2500 table. For sake of discussion let's called the minimum $25-$75 wagers and the average $100-$1000. Why? Because in my opinion that is where most of the players will be at the dollar value of the wagers.  The average bets will be in contrast to the minimums. The reason being is the difference between the targeting of the players, their bankrolls and the buy-ins risked and how aggressive each of us are.

Of course if you desire to wager only the average bet, your buy-in will need to be considerably larger than it would if you only target the minimum bet.

If your style is to accumulate a certain amount of win money before raising your target to average from minimum, then that would be in contrast to those that begin and stay within the minimum target until a certain event comes about and they then proceed to the average target for a select hand or two or three.  Completely different styles of acceptable wagering.  That is why following another is not a very good choice because of conflicting styles and goals.

Concentrating on the average makes perfect sense when your buy-in risk capital supports such with a calculated and followed with full self-control while drawdown when losing occurs. 

If you target the average you must recognize your abilities, buy-in volatility and emotions that will come on harder and stronger than targeting the minimum.  Why?  Because a large set of psychological reasons that confuse the highest majority of players as to their wagering decisions to sustain within their target plays on your subconscious altering you.

THE MAXIMUM.

Naturally if you understand the minimum and the average, you will understand the maximum as well. However I'll throw the following out here.

If you have progressed and target the maximum on a focused basis, you will not have many of the obstacles, the frustrations and negative emotions that other type of players will encounter regularly. However, your bank roll and buy-in risk capital will have to be intensely larger than those that target the average as well as the minimum. 

You will have to be extremely focused on frame of mind and clear conscious decisions, that are impeccably spot on without distractions of any type, or large sums of your buy-in risk capital and your bankroll will suffer in much larger and quicker accumulated quantities than all other players. With no exception. In addition there are little chances of recouping and grinding back to an even status when you play focused maximum.

Of course there are bursts and one time, two time, three time, etc., wagers within the maximum range that can easily easily be sustained, from those playing comfortably within the average. 

I guess what I am trying to say is, that most all people working out would not immediately lay down and benchpress their absolute limit, time after time after time from start to finish for their workout. Wouldn't it be more advantageous to those in attempting a maximum to create the opportunity in order to do the maximum with ease and caution while staying within their safe limits?

Targeting the maximum wagers are intense because of the dollar value. To myself the maximum works well with well-planned transition from the average for a limited amount of bursts, with total conscious thought and the knowledge, willpower and self-control to retreat before being defeated.  At least the highest majority of times. 

In Closing.  Minimum.  Knowledge, patience, understanding the process and a focus to move into the average. Average. Realization with application with comfortable continuance for what allows you to win and the ability to develop a Money Management Method that supports your play. Maximum. Short inconsistent bursts that do not cause you defeat and total conscious realization that maximum is to be highly respected and must be walked away from when you lose without any affect upon yourself.

QuoteOk, thanks Al for your answer (I particularly like this passage: "but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever")

as. 

And what exactly is, embracing and hugging the perfect whatever? 

Let's refresh our visually enticed desires as well as our physically required wagered bets.  And that is, wagering on the winning hands, no matter what or how they happen to come about, what events are created by those as well as how long those events last and our ability to acknowledge those events have diminished.

Just a refresher.

Mark, if you were to wager $25.00 straight up per number, for say 18 numbers per spin, how would you pick the numbers. 

There are 12 rows of 3 numbers each.  One on each row and another 6 divided?  Or, more on top and bottom or elsewhere, etc.?

Also, would you adjust the numbers to less or greater than 18?

Curious. 

QuoteThx Al, please elaborate this concept

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

Thanks in advance

as.

In short, what I wrote not too long ago.  Bear in mind, most anything can turn into a 10-15-20 'something to be followed'.  $500 or $750 wager with a couple time parlay and then a constant pull-down only losing the last one as whatever it was, diminished for the discontinuing cut.  A nice chunk of change.  (And before I get chastised, no I do not endorse playing every hand attempting to capture it around the corner, but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever.)

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11573.0

You said:  "IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability."



4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Yes, absolutely!  However, I have not played Vegas for a few years but do plan to return soon.

Here is a highlighted sentence of their article you linked to.  "Guests must also avoid having other players or MGM employees in their videos and photos. They must also not record audio of the actual game and can't play music or other audio from their device."

As far as MGM and Caesar's properties, we were always allowed to take pictures within the high limit rooms.  At least in the open areas or adjacent to the tables, as long as we didn't aim the phones at the other patrons, etc.  At least that is what we were told.

As far as snapping screen shots of the board or table we never asked or really desired to. 

As far as streaming, I do know there are several YouTube regulars that stream table games and have been doing so for a few years.  Although I know they come from non MGM and Caesar's properties. 

In general here in the Midwest it is extremely different from property to property.  We have casinos here that absolutely no phones allowed at the table and others that even provide charging plug ins under the rail and they could care less about use.  Others, you have to get up and make a call or text out of your seat.  Some allow me to snap a screen shot with no faces captured, while other absolutely forbid doing so.

Gizmotron you are exactly correct.  Not one doubt!

That email was from an Offshore Casino coupled with numerous, actual online casino concerns. It was in an Asian country. The email was a small part of a much greater and in-depth series of conversations I had with the officials at the property and business end. 

The so-called 'programmers' are more switch flippers and observers, but that is what they call them.

Yes it is theft not one doubt, but then again so is three card Monty on the streets of New York City. I am not defending them, I know 100% the highest majority of online casinos cheat, some with great blatant 'flipping the switch' after the bet is placed type of tactics, to a very mild, 'all we did was take away' the highest wagering player's edge and allow the smallest wagering players to win.

I was given this in detail explanation of how the applications are applied by a casino B&M and online official, that had been part of it for about 10 years. This was back around 2018.

What was unique I feel was this was a B & M casino, large without any doubt and professionally appearing in all aspects. Governmental gaming license, etc. They also had numerous leased floor spaces with gaming tables brought in and controlled by the leased operators. Those leased spaces were individually owned concerns but under the licensed authority of the casino.  Those spaces were allowed to set up online casinos as well as using their own floor spaced tables with their live dealers for in person open to the public gaming.

The casino would assist the leased operator with the logistical aspect of the technology for a percentage commission of the revenue realized by their leased space partners. In gist, that is one aspect to a very crooked world of the online gaming business.

FYI.  The leased spaced pricing was based upon actual space, not revenue collected.  The online end of it would be a set fee plus a percentage of the collected revenues realized. 

I have never supported online gaming and never will and the very large supporting stone to that was just a few months ago. This is when I removed the online banners of supposedly a reputable online casino concern on this very forum.

What happened was the online casinos refusal to pay me commissions on five members that signed up and deposited funds along with gambling on their site through my forum. In plain words, they cheated me and if they cheated me for that, I can only imagine what they do to their gambling patrons! How do I know they cheated me? Because those five sign ups were members from my forum that signed up, deposited and played all under my control and direction with my funds. They outright told me, that not one of those five were linked to my forum. All false! Case closed. They lie and cheat and if they did that to me, they certainly do it to their players.

Why did I have five people signed up through my forum? Because a member of this forum complained to me that he won about $800.00 within a week after signing up and was refused to withdraw his win money. I'm not going to get into the details, but the win was clear, it was deposited into his account and I don't believe there was any cheating whatsoever from the documents that I seen. A week after his attempt to withdraw it, the withdrawal was challenged and refused. They came back with a 60 day time frame hold and additional play necessary for the member to pass their, "new player checklist and the quick win be deemed as legitimate".

Again case closed. Online Casinos cheat, lie and steal from countless patrons.

Here is part of the email I received prior.

"........there are numerous ways to follow and track our players, believe me when I say that Glen.

Our software we write, purchase and altar has safeguards stitched in it. Our programmers are experts with all forms of Stitching algorithms with applications called PTGui.  PTGui is panoramic image stitching software for Windows, macOS and Linux. Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result.

We can employ or relinquish these type of controls at will. Slots and table games of all types, anything we offer online. Some jurisdictions have no concerns about these practices, while others only audit or verify on certain days that a minimum amount of win is being disbursed to the players of a gross amount of revenue we receive. A practice known as a guaranteed percentage being given to the players.

We track IP addresses as well as players Wagering regularly. We can easily alter an outcome of any electronic game and by doing so the highest majority of the times it will be within jurisdictional law. However is it ethical, absolutely not.  But it is a business decision based upon the number of players as well as the frequency and type of wagers being placed.

Yes we have secure and very complex RNG computers. We are occasionally audited and we will always know when the audit will happen. At times only minutes prior, because we have to allow access to the jurisdictional officials that are plugging into our system to verify the RNG method that we are using. It is virtually only a flip of a switch to go from one type of software to another.

Just because there is a live dealer, does not in any way dictate a pure random outcome of any game. Likewise any outcome of any game without dealers from electronic table games to slots................."