As you said, "Baccarat is a game of clusters getting different levels of appearance. Each level follows a general probability to happen that must be compared to the actual probability."

Which can happen at any time, 'due' or not.  As well, might and very well be extremely large at times bringing about words describing such clusters as 'rare' and 'unbelievable'. 

And, what sends me ROMAL with real tears from my eyes  caused by laughing so hard, are all the forum bac/gambling mathematicians, when they carry over their stats shoe after shoe after shoe, stating how their numbers are correct because they run continuously and cannot be limited to each shoe, etc.

#1. "That people tend to seek information that aligns with their views."

#2.  Quote from another post of mine.........."Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it".  Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food."

Super!

I like the 'Titanic' as well!

We simply label those shoes, 'The shoe from hell'.

You can win with either 'side'.  And that's the tuff part, like I said for the novice and the seasoned.

BTW I was not only referring to jackpot type shoes.  But, your mind cannot easily adapt to wagering for chops, 1s-2s-3s, cuts after ties and/naturals, etc., etc., if you are into strong clumping, streaks and side bets/bonuses and so on and vice versa. 

You know Asym, I tried in short to merge the two things that usually always happen into the reality of live B&M play which was the beginning and ending.

Most all people lose because of what they have never witnessed or experienced in play, novice or seasoned players.  Seriously. 

And you are so spot on about #2.  Thanks. 

But to the highest majority at the tables it sure does. Either to 'show off' to the others, or to attempt to satisfy their own ego that they have it all figured out, etc.  Winning is money and it certainly spends the exact same way whatever the reason it was that caused you to wager.

Camaraderie is one thing among a couple/few players and getting on to a win-streak and clearly pumping up your wagers as well as your A-Alpha energy is another positive thing, but all of those that attempt control of the table because of their egotistical voodoo to show off and fuel their sheer guesses while continually pointing to the score board explaining why such and such has to happen, is total upcoming negativity by the boat loads about to set in. 

The keys to winning are really narrowed down to two things.

1). What wins this session/shoe/section probably won't, might to a limited manner, or definitely will not in the following ones.

2). Anything, including the presentments you have never experienced can and will occur and win.

Remember, at least try to anyways the above two things because baccarat is a game of presentments that make appearances as well as disappearances. The tricky part is there is no balance, rhyme or reason as far as the statistical definable number between the appearances and the disappearances.

Yep, once again I did my couple month scan of most forums and gotta love those exact same, non-fading words; "I don't read all of your long-winded postings I do admit".  And then they go into the explanation which is kind of long-winded itself most of the time, explaining how they only read the first few sentences and the last few sentences"................., etc and so on.

Once in a while a so called 'regular' will drop out and then immediately or soon after a 'newbie' will join the fighting drama aggressive small group in their attempts to control the forum or section of the forum they reside in. 

Gotta love it!

QuoteHi all,

alrelax in reply #685:

"...My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted.

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. ..."


re: Ties. Personally, I view them as diluting the strength of what is presenting. Typically, and with no other better intel I treat them as place holders to whatever pattern is recently presenting. For example, if a T shows in the current string as: PBPBT (I would view the T as a continuance of what is happening "P slot" and would wager for B). I will also look at most recent 2-3 Ties just before this event and see if the pattern turned or continued and wager for whatever has been occurring.

Another T method I utilize (and have not confirmed if it is beneficial) is to look at how the two sides approached the Tie and wager on the increasing totals side. For example, let's say Bs recent hand totals were 8,7,6 and Ps recent hand totals were 4,5,6. Then I would wager for P after the T because it was "increasing" as it approached the T.

I would estimate that my success rate is probably near expectation.

Continued Success,

Thinking............Thinking back—I have to bring forward that often a tie designates a struggling side for whatever reason.  However, and a huge however, is that a Tie will allow one additional same side continuing win.  I find this more often true with the larger point value Ties, 7s-8s & 9s than others. 

I do agree with the previous same (same) shoe, what happened after the previous ties came out analogy, etc. 

Ref: " knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers."

While it's happening, wagers like gangbusters and the cut down and try/wait for another red carpet.

Problem being, most all players wait too long to start wagering or parlaying and as well, keep going way way too long once it's done.

Those are the two largest downfalls, IMO.

QuoteThanks Asymbacguy

I like your paragraph:
"...To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.
...."

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.

Thx,

My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted. 

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. 

KFB, great input, thanks,

I will comment and explain my playing decisions further tonight. 

Alrelax

I highly recommend from the bottom of my heart, the realization of what you are up against.  You will never smack the casino so hard that it actually hurts them!  You have to view each and every session of your play as a one time, brand new event without attempting recourse, revenge or make-up on any of your previous sessions where upon you lost.  It will only cloud your mind, your vision and put huge pressure and unrealistic goals you probably will not be able to meet.  You also have to have a certain amount of buy-in as a one-time event that is realistic as compared to your bankroll and a concrete refusal to buy-in a second time if you happened to lose the original buy-in amount.  That should be considered always 100% of the time, your stop loss figure.  This way when you win and apply something along the lines of my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd application of your win, within my Money Management Method system, your wins will far outnumber your losses, if you are truly playing with discipline and not vengeance.

The whole movement will be worth a heck of a lot less next summer (summer or even earlier than 2023). 

Watch and see. Recession and Devaluation stirred extremely well together, extremely. 

Did I mention extremely?

A long post I wrote, but IMO ultra spot-on.  Bump.

Here.  Having no plan, no realization, no recognition of how or when or what happened, will lead the player to disaster every time.  When the player can figure out the things I wrote about here and realize where the path is and what the curves and junctions mean, within those paths, the player is taking the knowledge and the experience and using it in a 100% pro-active and informational source that will benefit the player if he can only truly understand "Fooled by Reality" and "Fooled by His Own Desire".