As soon as someone writes the below or along the lines of James Bond; the only possible motive is to steal the gambler's money, no matter a casino, systems seller or author.  Period.

"If you're looking to sit down at a Las Vegas casino table game with few complexities and a lot of James Bond-style gambling fun, baccarat is your go-to game."

"The purpose of gaming is to win".

Alrelax, 2023

....."it's more intricated to be grasped as being a by product of both math and statistical features.".....

But stress, you never know when it will adhere, appear or disappear.   

Written 5 years ago.  Pertains to many discussions today.

Asym?
Kung Fu?

Well back in Atlantic City prior to the close of the Atlantic City Hilton (previously was Bally's Grand) our casino hosts used to walk around and hand these out for extras, besides all the comp they arranged, etc. 

Sure we had promo chips, which were always play until you lose, unlike todays, one time use style.

We used these primarily at the gift shop or restaurants when we didn't want to get a hold of a host or we could give them to our non-comped friends.  They were valid for any bearer. 

Like I said, unlike today!

"If he wins this session, he's a hustler
If he loses this session, he's an A**hole
Because he can't afford to lose $100!
And he is really really really leaning towards the A**hole side right now!"

SAID OUT LOUD BY; A person playing along side of me at a bac table last night about someone the guy knew who was winning nicely and then beginning to give it back.  (And eventually did)

Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

PDF
fin-2008-g007.pdf    85.46 KB
FIN-2008-G007
Issued Date
August 01, 2008
Guidance Subject:  Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

This guidance is intended to assist casinos and card clubs1 with the reporting of suspected money laundering, terrorist financing and related financial crimes. This guidance contains examples of circumstances or "red flags" - based on actual reports, the observations of examiners and the experience of law enforcement - that may indicate the presence of money laundering, terrorist financing, and related financial crimes.

Casinos that are subject to the federal Bank Secrecy Act ("BSA") have an obligation to implement anti-money laundering programs that include procedures for detecting and reporting suspicious transactions.

Casinos are required to implement risk-based anti-money laundering programs that assist with the identification and reporting of suspicious transactions, including employee training and written procedures on recognizing and addressing indicia of suspicious activity and vulnerabilities that may arise in the provision of particular products and services.

Recognizing Suspicious Customer Activity

Casino employees who monitor customer gaming activity or conduct transactions with customers are in a unique position to recognize transactions and activities that appear to have no legitimate purpose, are not usual for a specific player or type of players, or are not consistent with transactions involving wagering. Many casinos routinely obtain a great deal of information about their customers through deposit, credit, check cashing, player rating and slot club accounts. These accounts generally require casinos to obtain basic identification information about the accountholders and to inquire into the kinds of wagering activities in which the customer is likely to engage. Attempts to Evade BSA Reporting or Recordkeeping Requirements

Be alert to customers who try to keep their transactions just below the reporting or recordkeeping thresholds, such as:

Two or more customers each purchase chips with currency in amounts between $3,000 and $10,000, engage in minimal gaming, combine the chips (totaling in excess of $10,000), and one of them redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer seeks to cash out chips, tickets or tokens in excess of $10,000, but when asked for identification for completing a CTRC, reduces the amount of chips or tokens to be cashed out to less than $10,000.

A customer pays off a large credit debt, such as markers or bad checks, of more than $20,000 over a short period of time (e.g., less than one week), through a series of currency transactions, none of which exceeds $10,000 in a gaming day.

A customer receives a race book or sports pool payout in excess of $10,000 and requests currency of less than $10,000 and the balance paid in chips. The customer then goes to the cage and redeems the remaining chips for currency in an amount that is less than the CTRC reporting threshold.

A customer, who is a big winner, enlists another individual (who is not a partner of the customer in the gaming activity), to cash out a portion of the chips or tokens won to avoid the filing of a CTRC, IRS Form W-2G or other tax forms.

A customer attempts to influence, bribe, corrupt, or conspire with an employee not to file CTRCs.

Using a Cage Solely for Its Banking-Like Financial Services
Be alert to customer activity involving unusual banking-like transactions at the cage, such as:

A customer wires funds derived from non-gaming proceeds, to or through a bank and/or a non-bank financial institution(s) located in a country that is not his/her residence or place of business.

A customer appears to use a casino account primarily as a temporary repository for funds by making frequent deposits into the account and, within a short period of time (e.g., one to two days), requests money transfers of all but a token amount to domestic or foreign-based bank accounts.

Minimal Gaming Activities Without Reasonable Explanations

Be alert to customers conducting large transactions on the floor with little or no related gaming activity and without reasonable explanation, such as:

A customer purchases a large amount of chips with currency at a table, engages in minimal gaming, and then redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer draws casino markers (e.g., between $5,000 and $10,000) which he/she uses to purchase chips, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and then pays off the markers in currency and subsequently redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer makes a large deposit using numerous small denomination bills (e.g., $5s, $10s and $20s); and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal gaming, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for large denomination bills (e.g., $100), a casino check or a money transfer.

While reviewing computerized player rating records, an employee determines that a customer frequently purchases chips with currency between $5,000 and $10,000, engages in minimal gaming, and walks away with the chips.

A customer using a slot club account card inserts $2,990 of paper money (or an amount just below established thresholds) into a bill acceptor on a slot machine or video lottery terminal (e.g., contemporaneously inserting $5s, $10s and $20s), accumulating credits with minimal or no gaming activity, presses the "cash out" button to obtain a ticket. The customer goes to three other machines and conducts the same activity for $2,990 at each machine. Then the customer redeems the tickets for large denomination bills or casino checks with different cage cashiers at different times in a gaming day.

A customer transfers funds to a casino for deposit into a front money account in excess of $5,000; and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for a casino check.

Unusual Transaction Characteristics or Activities
Be alert to transactions with any unusual characteristics, such as:

A pair of bettors frequently cover between them both sides of an even bet, such as:
- Betting both "red and black" or "odd and even" on roulette;
- Betting both with and against the bank in baccarat/mini-baccarat; or
- Betting the "pass line" or "come line" and the "don't pass line" or "don't come line" in craps; and,
the aggregate amount of both bettors' total wagering is in excess of $5,000.

A customer routinely bets both sides of the same line for sporting events (i.e., betting both teams to win) and thus the amount of overall loss to the customer is minimal (known as hedging).

A customer requests the issuance of casino checks, each less than $3,000, which are made payable to third parties or checks without a specified payee.

A customer furnishes a legitimate type of identification document, in connection with the completion of a CTRC, or the opening of a deposit, credit or check cashing account, which:
- Does not match the customer's appearance (e.g., different age, height, eye color, sex); or
- Is false or altered (e.g., address changed, photograph substituted).

A customer presents information for the completion of CTRCs for different gaming days that contains conflicting identification information, such as:
- Different address or different spelling or numeration in address;
- Different state driver's license number; or
- Different social security number.

A customer makes large deposits or pays off large markers with multiple instruments (e.g., cashier's checks, money orders, traveler's checks, or foreign drafts) in amounts of less than $3,000.

A customer withdraws a large amount of funds (e.g., $30,000 or more) from a deposit account and requests that multiple casino checks be issued each of which is less than $10,000.

A customer arranges large money transfers out of the country which are paid for by multiple cashier's checks from different financial institutions in amounts under $10,000.

Criminal Activities
Be alert to a customer conducting illegal activity, such as:

A customer conducts transactions that the casino believes to be the result of some illegal activity or from an illegal source (e.g., narcotics trafficking).

A customer or a group of individuals forge signatures or use counterfeit business or personal checks to obtain currency, chips or tokens.

Questions or comments regarding the contents of this Guidance should be addressed to the FinCEN Regulatory Helpline at 800-949-2732.

1 See 31 U.S.C. § 5312(a)(2)(X) and 31 C.F.R. § 103.11(n)(5)(i) and (n)(6)(i). In this guidance, the term "casino" is used to refer to casinos, card clubs and other gaming establishments that fall within the BSA and FinCEN's regulations, unless otherwise noted.

Financial Institution
Casinos

I have had countless extreme shoes but there's one from last night, that will stand out for a long time. I wasn't at my regular primary casino but I was at another property that I sometimes play at and I knew some of the people playing. I joined the game and it was near the end of the shoe, it was just winning a few and losing a few, not doing anything. Got into the new shoe after the shuffle and burn. 

It was late, after midnight, most of the faces were long with obviously lost funds.  I was next to a lady I have known from the casinos for several years now.  She was stacking her chips in what I call the pyramid style in front of her, which is three or four stacks against the rail and then one less stack in from the rail, then one less stack in from that and usually the header on it, so it's simply shaped like a pyramid. 

She had nine stacks of $250 each. She told me she won a few $250 bets and parlayed them to $500 and lost the $1000 wagers or won those $1000 wagers and lost the $2000 wagers.  After we played numerous hands sporadically, I looked and she had $2500 left. I had a little bit more than that but not much.  I asked her if she was going to buy-in again or what her plans were. This was turning out to be a win-push-grind down a little type of session.  Nothing really happening in so many words.  Then she told me she had several chances left trying to build out $250 each time, nine times. She told me she was into the session with the money on the table she had for $4000.

She stacked all of her chips together and said out loud, "I got to chance it and if I win this, I got my money back and I'm up a little bit and I'll leave, if I lose I'm going to leave". 

She turned to me and said, "come on let's do it, Bang Bang Bang on the Door Baby".  Oh yes, The B-52s, man she's trying everything I'm thinking to myself.  She really is a hype player and when she is hyped, she becomes real aggressive, seen it so many times. 

She puts the $2500 on banker, the hand goes quick with a 6 for the player and the bankers got a two card 7. She looked at me and said, "you really believed I was going to leave huh?".

She immediately stacks up the win on top of her wager, slides it down to players side, not one bit of hesitation.  But her hand is still on top.  I'm following her simply because she is on a mini roll and she is great about catching up and winning a few, exactly what she is in the process of doing.  She takes her hand off of her wager and announces, "let's roll".  She flops over a face card and a 5 for the players, the dealer flops over two face cards for the bankers.  She gets the third players card and sighs, exhales loudly and flips over a 7.  She says, "now we get reduced to a F******* 2!".  She stands up, leans in a bit and is pointing at the dealer in the process of flipping the bankers third card over.  Of course she as well as several others are loudly reciting, "Monkey-Monkey Time-Show Us That Monkey".  The dealer flops an ace!  She goes crazy!  High fives all around and fists pumping into the air.  Several large wagers were on that one. 

She is sitting with $10,000 now, roughly $7,500-$8,000 of win.  Looks at me and says, "whatcha think".  I said, "up to you, you call it".  I been mimicking her and I don't want to change anything.  She pushes it all up on the bankers side, but as normal she keeps her hand on top of it.  She has a table max wager and I am near the same.  She looks at me once more and says nothing, just looks.  She nods her head forward, as if saying, yes—no?  I push mine out on the bankers and say, "you work the cards, just do it". 

Cards come out and there are a few people wagering on the bankers with us and two others on the players.  Players return a 10 and a 3.  She works the bankers cards and goes through verbalizing what the lines are before looking at the corners.  She has a 4 line and a 3 line.  She turns and turns them and peels them both back.  A 9 and a 7.  Players return a 7 and she immediately goes into celebration status, "we got this, we got it!".  Dealer slides her the bankers third card.  She peeks at the side and mumbles a 2 line card, a 4 or 5.  She slid the card up a bit, still upside down, puts her finger smack in the middle of it and peels it back, while repeatedly saying, 5-5-5-5.  She flops a darn 4!  Tie hand.  She looks at me and of course, isn't very happy at all.

Now she is rushing the table.  She is leaving her wager on the bankers and while everyone else is fidgeting around with their wagers, she puts her hand on top of her table max wager.  Looks at me and says, "you know after something like that, it is usually a players natural coming out".  I said, "let's switch our wagers down to players".  She keeps her hand on her wager, still in the bankers spot.  She says at least three times that she doesn't like it.  Dealer taps the table twice, but she isn't paying attention.  She takes her hand off and proudly and clearly announces, that we are ready. 

Players return a 3 and a 2.  Dealer slides her the two bankers cards and she laterals them to me.  After the standard, "next time let me do that" from the dealer, I look at the cards.  I got a face card and either a 4 or 5 I tell her.  She is pleading for a 5 of course.  I saw the dot in the middle and without turning it over, tell her it's a 4.  She punches me in the shoulder telling me how she knows the players are either going to pull a monkey or a something small.  I flip the 5 and she smacks me once more and smiles a tiny bit.  The guy wagering the largest on the players peeks at his third card.  Throws it in face down after much ado.  Dealer flops the 8 the guy threw in.  My comrade is yelling, "snowman-hello beautiful snowman". 

We both color up.  Another one for the books. Short and sweet in many ways. 

SIDE-NOTE:  Camaraderie is great IMO, of course camaraderie does not and will not change values of what is set to be presented.  However, in many cases camaraderie allows many bac players (including myself) to wager larger amounts, hype a winning section or group of hands and other things that allow us to win larger and additional hands that we might not have have been able to do otherwise. 

Huge advantages to us, but still (as I write) so many continue to play for what has won and lose, then go into the recoup stage).

As you said:  "Best strategy to employ is to chase what we name as 'minimum profit goal', situations where 'more likely events' are entitled to come out clustered at least by 1 step.
More intricated is the situation where a negative event will be played as 'isolated' as being affected by huge volatility."

Like your summation:

"General probability and actual probability",

How about if we say—General Probability = Actual Probability = Doability.  ??

Am I Wrong?:  "In my opinion and that of others I respect, admire and know are experienced and serious players, is the following. There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period!"

Am I Wrong?:  "Now with the above said, with passion-purpose and experience you most certainly can profit from table games within the casino. But it is never going to be by reading a simple book or following a system you purchased with all kind of enticing promises and so-called 'proven results'. Never ever, seriously."

Am I Wrong?:  "...their material can never be the definitive protocol to consistent, easy, repetitive and for sure winning sessions.  Never ever.  Period."

The rest of what I wrote, I was trying to bring out points for attention getting and the silliness many believe that mechanical wagering will always prevail, are dead wrong.  Especially the flat betting and continual recouping betting.

AND YES ABSOLUTELY: "Meaning win more $ than one loses."  But NOT with an easy mechanical safe-guaranteed-never lose a session-system just waiting for you to rack in the cash, etc., etc., believe in me for less than $100.00 (or whatever it costs) for sale product.  Never.  (Meaning every session or damn near every session with the ludicrous and asinine claims/enticements promised.)

AND YES ABSOLUTELY:  "However, it typically isn't due to some wizardly bet selection methodology. Certainly not with a preplanned mechanical bet placement,...etc. . Mostly with money management and discipline (and most importantly handling losing sessions)."  Of course, a hell of a lot more than 100%.....!

OMG!  I received this gift yesterday.  Absolute Beauty with its Leather Binder.  Brand new! Gold Gilted Pages!  Silk Marker Strap!

The Special Edition Of:
THE BACCARAT CASE

FROM: The Notable Trials Library

This edition was published in 1992.  Originally published in 1933. 

This Special Edition has a introduction by the very well know, Alan M Dershowitz, Esq. 

The Baccarat Case is about A British Nobleman and close friend of the Prince of Wales that had cheated at baccarat.  The trial in the law courts, Queens Bench Division of London during 1891 about playing Baccarat the year before in 1890. It is about slander of William Gordon-Cumming against Mrs. Arthur Wilson and others.

Going to be a great read of historic legal history involving baccarat.  A nice addition to my book collection!

Nothing to beat the house ITLR.

OK let's admit it. That statement is correct. Frequently written, frequently sided, frequently argued about.

Books, systems sellers, forums, etc. Plenty of written material out there. Tons and tons of promises, guarantees, sworn by reviews and so on. There are a handful of good basic books no doubt, but deciphering through what's available to find those is kinda like draining the swamp to see what will benefit you.

In my opinion and that of others I respect, admire and know are experienced and serious players, is the following. There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period! 

With that said here are just a few of what a random search of casino gaming books provided from the dust covers, by the authors or a customer review from a 'verified purchase'.

FIRST ONE I READ:  "I am not going to claim you can win every time but reading this book allowed me to win $987.00 starting with only $100 after reading the book. The next time I made $375.00 starting with only $50.  So over three days I made over $1,300.00.  Simply because I followed what the book said that I paid only $29.00 for!"

NEXT ONE:  "The book I just mentioned is how to control the dice so you can hold them on average 15 to 20 minutes every time you step up to the table. Sometimes you can hold them for 45 minutes. You learn how to set, grip and throw to get predetermined numbers."

NEXT ONE:  "The power betting strategy pays for the book thousands and thousands of times over and over. No questions about that."

NEXT ONE:  "This fast reading best seller is updated to show beginning and intermediate players how to beat the casino at all the popular games including the latest slot machines."

NEXT ONE:  "I'm selling my secrets for under $100 because I care about my fellow player, I dislike the casino that takes most all players hard earned money. There's no doubt about it you will win large amounts of money with my system."

Now with the above said, with passion-purpose and experience you most certainly can profit from table games within the casino. But it is never going to be by reading a simple book or following a system you purchased with all kind of enticing promises and so-called 'proven results'. Never ever, seriously.

How do people survive writing and publishing worthless books, systems and related information? Because of money. People will buy them and believe in the written promises as proven, real, and so called 'proven' ways to get over on the casino as factual, researched and luckily made available. 

But in true reality most all of the information, systems and conversions of data and techniques and of course, the 'deciphering of statistical results' are wrong. Their promises of what most everyone of them publish is more than obnoxious, it is offensive and wrong. Especially for playing sessions at a casino consisting of anywhere from 1 to say 8 shoes each time.

Of course the carelessness and neglect of the consumer comes into play.  Which are all the people that believe it is math and statistical technique applied to any game, which will allow them to profit thousands and thousands of dollars with the easy winnings just waiting for them.

Bottom line. This sensationalized information turned into 'How to beat the casino' or 'How to win easy money', etc. etc., are coming from authors that are well aware their material can never be the definitive protocol to consistent, easy, repetitive and for sure winning sessions.  Never ever.  Period. 

Those making the type of statement and promises, "read my book or follow my system" and "you will make easy money, guaranteed wins, beat the game" and so on, are all inappropriate and unprofessional in every way whatsoever.

"Remember this. The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."

– Nicholas Dandalos (professional gambler)

Baccarat.  Our wagering decisions are frequently and enormously fueled by lies from others as well as our own beliefs that most would be better off without.

To understand how to win, what might happen and how presentments probably will not-but might follow something; you will never find definitive answers to.  Baccarat is unlike all the scholastic, mechanical and technical/industrial teachings, the way we were/are taught-instructed, whereupon there is a definitive solution for most every situation or problem.

Coupled with, "I have won previously by wagering so-and-so after such and such", or the event of "XYZ almost always appears and it has not yet", etc. Those are powerful subconscious things that do influence most all players at the baccarat table. Every single time.

There are basically three modes of wagering at the table. 1)  Your decision based on what you believe;  2) Follow others because they are winning or seem to be in the groove; 3)  Sit and watch.

Let's look at those three modes.

1)  When it works it's great. Adds win money, adds emotional positiveness and confidence. However, our beliefs, which you must realize, are well less than 50% in most every session that will come about and we can capitalize off of. And that is the key, see explanation below. (#1 Explained)

2)  Usually works for one or two wagers, but the absolute highest percentile of time fails after those and your frustration level will be compounded with large amounts of, "why in the F*** did I do that?".

3)  If hands develop and win that you picked, you will become frustrated and add to a larger clouded judgment you already had.

#1 Explained.  I will state that in all the years I have played, my wins are most certainly less than 50% of my wagering. Not one doubt about it. That is why flat betting will never prevail in the highest of the high percentile grouped any way you care to analyze it. Positive Progressions will add advantages and fuel to your play if you know how to develop and apply a Money Management Method that works in your favor and to your advantage when you win.

And of course we attempt to duplicate our wins with reasonings. Such as equalization, naturals cut or stick, ties cut or stick, chop chop, etc. etc. And if we start to win numerous Wagers (more details at: https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11605.0), we open ourselves up for, "I knew it-I found it-It's going to happen again without a doubt", and those types of self promoting statements. And most mistakes are made if flat betting again after initial wins—then it happens and you win again, so you are further convinced the parlay and use progressiveness should be employed but the highest majority of all times, it falls off and you lost the wager. Of course because you convinced yourself you found it and were right, etc., you wager once again with progressiveness on the same and another loss amounts. And that becomes the typical, "I gave it all back and I lost my win money as well as my buy-in money scenario.

There are so many false hoods and so many lies that are either published, sold as systems, talked about with great drama on forums  or sold in books, that it is pitiful. Take all the statistics you want. Attempt to deduce those down to one or two or three or four or five shoes and the odds of being able to win the wagers preached, session after session after session are so totally in favor of the casino, I hate to think about it. 

Sure, whatever you are believing in by using some kind of statistics might occur, but it will not under any circumstance, be consistent and repetitive shoe after shoe or at any time within a session continuously, session after session after session. And the few times it works gives you such fuel and motivation to continue the attempt, if you don't wind up continuously losing your buy-in risk capital, you put huge amounts of strain and unnecessary risk on your buy-in and/or previously won profits.