You said:  "However, If I walk up to the same table with the same parameters above with a goal: I want to win a bunch of money, so I think I'll just full press any win ten times, color up, and go home. That is unrealistic because I know thyself(myself) and can look at my previous results and calculate or at least estimate the likelihood of success or failure.

Many players do not clearly know what they want to accomplish at that session (or if they do have a target its often unrealistic and or the design of ones plan doesn't fit the target). So the probability of success is minimal."

I wrote within the article:  "You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!"

P.S. & BTW.  I try to always say, 'I'm going to win and lose and when the right time comes in, I will smack'em as hard as I can'.

Understanding the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering and how those fit within a great money management method is not all that complex.

In my opinion, to take your game to the next level you must be smarter, better and focused, while being absolutely 'on board' with your play. If you are not, you will add more negative than positive to your game. I promise you with all my heart that you will.

Besides from the tangibles of a player advantaged money management method, such as bankroll, buy-in risk funds, drawdown understanding, 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd division of your win money, etc., there is a very large part of money management methods which you must understand what your plan is, what your goal is and how you are going to accomplish those.

There certainly are intangible stories behind the numbers that can never be known or in any way guaranteed within any shoe. However you must understand the reasoning behind your play and how you capture the possibilities that are actually opportunities.  So, you must have a targeting focus to get you there.  If you don't, you will most likely fail. 

While bet selection and the frequency of them is very important to winning, without a money management method including a tangible working target incorporating the knowledge of minimum, average and maximum wagering, you are failing to add pure advantage to your play.

Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table.

Your wagering that is lost, will create conflict within yourself. And conflict has a lot to do with playing Baccarat in my opinion. Why? Because conflict will change your frame of mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought. That is not good for you. Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about. Stay within your comfort zone.  You can find your comfort zone if you understand the proper use of the minimum, the average and the maximum. 

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go, or if you were remaining neutral, but had a feeling it was going to be a winning result coming about.  As you witnessed  others at the table begin to prosper nicely, conflict can also come. Be aware.

Conflict is a deep and complex subject and all I did after hours of rereading my notes, was just to highlight the above.

Putting it all together. Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are. Such as, are your decisions from the previous hands, triggers and superstitions, the events themselves? Or, are they from the results you have the deduced down from the other people there playing at the table? Huge difference and huge consequences will come about. I literally promise you that. Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to be better, make clearer decisions and be better focused while dealing with the events as a great player should be.

I have learned money management methods properly formed and believed in by players are the absolute most valuable and important advantage to playing Baccarat. A Money Management Method is so much more than a stop loss and stop win for a player. I have written in depth about what a real money management method is and you can certainly find those threads on the forum.

Baccarat tables in brick and mortar casinos have a varied range of minimum and maximum wagering limits. The highest majority of casino properties have limits such as:

$10-$25-$1,000
$25-$1,000
$25/$50-$2,000/$2,500
$25/$50-$5,000
$25/$50/$100-$10,000

Most of the higher limit rooms have a limit such as:

$100-$10,000
$200-$15,000
$300-$20,000
$300/$500-$25,000

There are variations around the country of course, but those above are a good example of the highest majority of properties.

Minimums-Averages-Maximums

You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!

Understanding the limits and your targeting within.

Naturally the first way is to target the table minimum. My tangible thought is, that you will focus on accomplishing at least the minimum without the possible loss of too much of your buy-in risk capital funds. Slowly with little to no stress you make it count with just a little bit of parlay and progression. 

The second way is to target the average, kind of a midway point of the table limits as well as what you observe others doing. Yes, a larger goal and an increase of stress and emotions without a doubt. But if you can achieve the average comfortably, you will end up making a considerable difference above the minimum wagering.

The last target is to be able to employ with confidence, positive wins at risk and within a safe draw down amount, the maximum wagering limit or close to it. This last target must be handled with extreme self-control no matter if you win or lose. This target will place you into a new level but you have to be comfortable with it as well as realize you cannot continually wager it.

So many players as well as system sellers and book authors of gambling, will never agree with me. However, after years and years of observation, playing and realization, I know the importance of expectations, desires and tangibility of each of the three; minimums, averages and maximums. 

THE MINIMUM.

You have to understand each of the three targets and how you can win or lose under each. Maybe the easiest way to do that is comparing each to the status quo. What is the status quo? It is simply the existing state of affairs. The current situation, hand after hand for a small section of the shoe you were actively engaging in wagering on.

So to start with, you target very little. The minimum. Minimum can also be viewed as the default because it is close to zero.

You can certainly think of the targets here as getting onto the interstate and off again fairly quickly from a local side street.  You accelerate to a certain speed, monitor and the readjust your speed and decelerate.  Beginning at the minimum, accelerate to the average and peek at the maximum while knowingly focusing on the soon upcoming exiting points and how to get there.

I'm probably going to get chastised for this tangibility protocol assumption, but not many of us will ever sit down, buy in and begin with the maximum target.

I have deduced down to a tangible definition, we begin at or near the minimum as it is a lower threshold for loss, emotions, frustration and less chance to cloud and ruin our frame of minds we strive (or should) to maintain. For myself the minimum target is used as a default target and to keep me in the game while I pursue the possibilities and opportunities I desire.

THE AVERAGE.

Now about the average wagers at the table. Let's say it's a $25-$2500 table. For sake of discussion let's called the minimum $25-$75 wagers and the average $100-$1000. Why? Because in my opinion that is where most of the players will be at the dollar value of the wagers.  The average bets will be in contrast to the minimums. The reason being is the difference between the targeting of the players, their bankrolls and the buy-ins risked and how aggressive each of us are.

Of course if you desire to wager only the average bet, your buy-in will need to be considerably larger than it would if you only target the minimum bet.

If your style is to accumulate a certain amount of win money before raising your target to average from minimum, then that would be in contrast to those that begin and stay within the minimum target until a certain event comes about and they then proceed to the average target for a select hand or two or three.  Completely different styles of acceptable wagering.  That is why following another is not a very good choice because of conflicting styles and goals.

Concentrating on the average makes perfect sense when your buy-in risk capital supports such with a calculated and followed with full self-control while drawdown when losing occurs. 

If you target the average you must recognize your abilities, buy-in volatility and emotions that will come on harder and stronger than targeting the minimum.  Why?  Because a large set of psychological reasons that confuse the highest majority of players as to their wagering decisions to sustain within their target plays on your subconscious altering you.

THE MAXIMUM.

Naturally if you understand the minimum and the average, you will understand the maximum as well. However I'll throw the following out here.

If you have progressed and target the maximum on a focused basis, you will not have many of the obstacles, the frustrations and negative emotions that other type of players will encounter regularly. However, your bank roll and buy-in risk capital will have to be intensely larger than those that target the average as well as the minimum. 

You will have to be extremely focused on frame of mind and clear conscious decisions, that are impeccably spot on without distractions of any type, or large sums of your buy-in risk capital and your bankroll will suffer in much larger and quicker accumulated quantities than all other players. With no exception. In addition there are little chances of recouping and grinding back to an even status when you play focused maximum.

Of course there are bursts and one time, two time, three time, etc., wagers within the maximum range that can easily easily be sustained, from those playing comfortably within the average. 

I guess what I am trying to say is, that most all people working out would not immediately lay down and benchpress their absolute limit, time after time after time from start to finish for their workout. Wouldn't it be more advantageous to those in attempting a maximum to create the opportunity in order to do the maximum with ease and caution while staying within their safe limits?

Targeting the maximum wagers are intense because of the dollar value. To myself the maximum works well with well-planned transition from the average for a limited amount of bursts, with total conscious thought and the knowledge, willpower and self-control to retreat before being defeated.  At least the highest majority of times. 

In Closing.  Minimum.  Knowledge, patience, understanding the process and a focus to move into the average. Average. Realization with application with comfortable continuance for what allows you to win and the ability to develop a Money Management Method that supports your play. Maximum. Short inconsistent bursts that do not cause you defeat and total conscious realization that maximum is to be highly respected and must be walked away from when you lose without any affect upon yourself.

QuoteOk, thanks Al for your answer (I particularly like this passage: "but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever")

as. 

And what exactly is, embracing and hugging the perfect whatever? 

Let's refresh our visually enticed desires as well as our physically required wagered bets.  And that is, wagering on the winning hands, no matter what or how they happen to come about, what events are created by those as well as how long those events last and our ability to acknowledge those events have diminished.

Just a refresher.

Mark, if you were to wager $25.00 straight up per number, for say 18 numbers per spin, how would you pick the numbers. 

There are 12 rows of 3 numbers each.  One on each row and another 6 divided?  Or, more on top and bottom or elsewhere, etc.?

Also, would you adjust the numbers to less or greater than 18?

Curious. 

QuoteThx Al, please elaborate this concept

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

Thanks in advance

as.

In short, what I wrote not too long ago.  Bear in mind, most anything can turn into a 10-15-20 'something to be followed'.  $500 or $750 wager with a couple time parlay and then a constant pull-down only losing the last one as whatever it was, diminished for the discontinuing cut.  A nice chunk of change.  (And before I get chastised, no I do not endorse playing every hand attempting to capture it around the corner, but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever.)

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11573.0

You said:  "IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability."



4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Yes, absolutely!  However, I have not played Vegas for a few years but do plan to return soon.

Here is a highlighted sentence of their article you linked to.  "Guests must also avoid having other players or MGM employees in their videos and photos. They must also not record audio of the actual game and can't play music or other audio from their device."

As far as MGM and Caesar's properties, we were always allowed to take pictures within the high limit rooms.  At least in the open areas or adjacent to the tables, as long as we didn't aim the phones at the other patrons, etc.  At least that is what we were told.

As far as snapping screen shots of the board or table we never asked or really desired to. 

As far as streaming, I do know there are several YouTube regulars that stream table games and have been doing so for a few years.  Although I know they come from non MGM and Caesar's properties. 

In general here in the Midwest it is extremely different from property to property.  We have casinos here that absolutely no phones allowed at the table and others that even provide charging plug ins under the rail and they could care less about use.  Others, you have to get up and make a call or text out of your seat.  Some allow me to snap a screen shot with no faces captured, while other absolutely forbid doing so.

Gizmotron you are exactly correct.  Not one doubt!

That email was from an Offshore Casino coupled with numerous, actual online casino concerns. It was in an Asian country. The email was a small part of a much greater and in-depth series of conversations I had with the officials at the property and business end. 

The so-called 'programmers' are more switch flippers and observers, but that is what they call them.

Yes it is theft not one doubt, but then again so is three card Monty on the streets of New York City. I am not defending them, I know 100% the highest majority of online casinos cheat, some with great blatant 'flipping the switch' after the bet is placed type of tactics, to a very mild, 'all we did was take away' the highest wagering player's edge and allow the smallest wagering players to win.

I was given this in detail explanation of how the applications are applied by a casino B&M and online official, that had been part of it for about 10 years. This was back around 2018.

What was unique I feel was this was a B & M casino, large without any doubt and professionally appearing in all aspects. Governmental gaming license, etc. They also had numerous leased floor spaces with gaming tables brought in and controlled by the leased operators. Those leased spaces were individually owned concerns but under the licensed authority of the casino.  Those spaces were allowed to set up online casinos as well as using their own floor spaced tables with their live dealers for in person open to the public gaming.

The casino would assist the leased operator with the logistical aspect of the technology for a percentage commission of the revenue realized by their leased space partners. In gist, that is one aspect to a very crooked world of the online gaming business.

FYI.  The leased spaced pricing was based upon actual space, not revenue collected.  The online end of it would be a set fee plus a percentage of the collected revenues realized. 

I have never supported online gaming and never will and the very large supporting stone to that was just a few months ago. This is when I removed the online banners of supposedly a reputable online casino concern on this very forum.

What happened was the online casinos refusal to pay me commissions on five members that signed up and deposited funds along with gambling on their site through my forum. In plain words, they cheated me and if they cheated me for that, I can only imagine what they do to their gambling patrons! How do I know they cheated me? Because those five sign ups were members from my forum that signed up, deposited and played all under my control and direction with my funds. They outright told me, that not one of those five were linked to my forum. All false! Case closed. They lie and cheat and if they did that to me, they certainly do it to their players.

Why did I have five people signed up through my forum? Because a member of this forum complained to me that he won about $800.00 within a week after signing up and was refused to withdraw his win money. I'm not going to get into the details, but the win was clear, it was deposited into his account and I don't believe there was any cheating whatsoever from the documents that I seen. A week after his attempt to withdraw it, the withdrawal was challenged and refused. They came back with a 60 day time frame hold and additional play necessary for the member to pass their, "new player checklist and the quick win be deemed as legitimate".

Again case closed. Online Casinos cheat, lie and steal from countless patrons.

Here is part of the email I received prior.

"........there are numerous ways to follow and track our players, believe me when I say that Glen.

Our software we write, purchase and altar has safeguards stitched in it. Our programmers are experts with all forms of Stitching algorithms with applications called PTGui.  PTGui is panoramic image stitching software for Windows, macOS and Linux. Originally started as a Graphical User Interface for Panorama Tools (hence the name), PTGui has evolved into a full featured, industry leading photo stitching application.  Take roulette for example.  We can have a series of 35 dealer initiated spins and instantly while appearing legitimately, allowing the outcome to be our chosen result.

We can employ or relinquish these type of controls at will. Slots and table games of all types, anything we offer online. Some jurisdictions have no concerns about these practices, while others only audit or verify on certain days that a minimum amount of win is being disbursed to the players of a gross amount of revenue we receive. A practice known as a guaranteed percentage being given to the players.

We track IP addresses as well as players Wagering regularly. We can easily alter an outcome of any electronic game and by doing so the highest majority of the times it will be within jurisdictional law. However is it ethical, absolutely not.  But it is a business decision based upon the number of players as well as the frequency and type of wagers being placed.

Yes we have secure and very complex RNG computers. We are occasionally audited and we will always know when the audit will happen. At times only minutes prior, because we have to allow access to the jurisdictional officials that are plugging into our system to verify the RNG method that we are using. It is virtually only a flip of a switch to go from one type of software to another.

Just because there is a live dealer, does not in any way dictate a pure random outcome of any game. Likewise any outcome of any game without dealers from electronic table games to slots................."

Last night, sitting and talking about the game.

1).  Do not ignore the game to its true principles.  And that is exactly what almost all players do because, of their relentless frame-of-mind.

2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them. 

3). Ignore the past as total irrelevancy when the fire erupts.  Because if you do not, all you will do 100%  is pour fuel on it.  Guaranteed.

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

6). Thomas Paine said, "The mind, once enlightened cannot again become dark". 

The absolute most unintelligent award, goes to..........the Las Vega casino maid that idolizes Daddy, Master and the King!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/las-vegas-maid-stole-768-170236431.html

I have mentioned 'The Stride' before. I try my best to keep it in mind while playing. You will always begin on the black line (see picture). Success is your session goal and failure is your loss of buy-in funds.

Although it will seldom happen, where a player goes straight to success or failure, he will usually hover within the areas between even and success as well as even and failure. Point here, is be conscious of this fact and remain conscious of it while you play. I do believe it has the power to guide you and allow you a better and clearer realization as to what your decisions are producing or taking away from you. 

Successful people do not bring success to a gaming table, but most of the tangible successful people sit down with that attitude close to or at 100% mark, each and every time. But being successful or unsuccessful in many things of your life really has nothing to do with playing the game of baccarat.  Unlike what so many truly believe. 

Success in the game of baccarat for each session we are talking about reaching your goal and winning money. The amount varies from person to person. As well, failure is the loss of your buy-in funds no matter who you are or what goals you have, period.

What so many fail to believe in and remember is, that the shoe is the shoe that will present each and every hand the way it is set to. Nothing can change it or alter it. What does happen and what hurts us are the following:

Emotions

Frustrations

Money Management Methods (Wrong & Lack Of)

An unclear understanding of winning and losing

A failure to leave with win money

A failure to have proper knowledge and use of buy-in versus bankroll funds you are risking

In my opinion, most all players create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action by their outcomes. Often irrespective of the decision making process. That is exactly the point and reason where they go wrong. What it takes, is foresight (intangible), planning (tangible) and a solid base (tangible) to completely and without wavering to adhere to and get what you really want. Because what you want, most always, will not quickly fall onto you or in front of you. And that is why so many players waiver in their decisions and play recklessly.

You have to judge decisions on a process, rather than an immediate outcome as a general rule, bar a few clear advantaged events occasionally that will present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results/outcomes within a section of the shoe, that are so blatantly positive or negative that can be to your advantage, just use it to improve or change courses of action to your benefit.

Remember, when you sit down, buy-in and get your stack in front of you, you are walking down 'The Stride'.  Where you wind up from there depends on the things I have mentioned herein. 

Asym, You said: " BTW, I do not think randomness is beatable.................".

I am not trying to, and it cannot be scientifically or mechanically done.  However, I found numerous countermeasures to play with randomness and find or capture the opportunities and advantages that present themselves. 

I have done extremely well over the years.  Yes I have lost some, but I have won a heck of a lot greater! 

Please do not get the gist of what I am trying to say mixed up with what most would say about it.  And that is, I believe I can beat randomness and all of the side quarks that sneak up with it.

Asym, And you said; "Glen, it's a very good post filled of ideas I've implemented in our play.
I don't recall the times when while waiting to place a dubious bet, your suggestions came to my help and believe me or not, I was more right than wrong (even by not betting at all, of course).
I even named them as 'Al spots'. Maybe I'll make some comments on that at my section."

Well, I am trying to put into words and examples what can help, assist and define various baccarat events, etc.  Not easy and very time consuming.  I do appreciate the verbal and written acknowledgment. 

I put a lot of serious time into what I posted.  Of course I'm biased, but I do genuinely feel it is the fruits of my good and bad experiences. 

It is NOT a science, it is a non-tangible skill with unknowns attached.  Always.

Thanks Mark, Glen.