"Regardless of how we are dissecting the results, some situations are more  'uniformly' distributed than expected even by assuming a perfect random distribution that by no fk means exists in the real world.".

Of course and what most all players tend to forget or ignore.

Believe the two following things for great advantage.

Exists in SECTIONS.

And, might not.

I will try my best to recall the moves, it helps me and hopefully will help you/others in your pursuits of this game.  I can recall most of it as it is fresh.  So typing as I was thinking when I was at the table is what I am saying.

Gravy train shoe for sure. (Of course it was, but you understand the game in a live B&M especially when the players are playing the game receiving the cards, bending and peeling, blowing and erasing, etc.)

On the first two P columns did you do your oft mentioned pospros (1326 or the 1248 16,1...etc, or other?), and did u continue with  your pospro through the 5th/6th hits on the first two P column runs? (It was the beginning of the shoe and there was several negative aspects against us. One which is really a subject I brought up in the past numerous times and I should once again, was today's players in a B&M are really almost never all together, such as all agreeing on something or not wagering, etc.  Used to be, we almost all would agree, high five, feel good, pump it up, smack the casino attitude and keep it going.  I know!!!! One million zillion percent, all of that does not CHANGE the presentments coming out.  YES I know, but it stops the, "Well #2 is betting table max and I feel awkward and stupid if I lose my $500 on the opposite side, he has been winning and is on a roll" type of thought.  Because if he wins, then it turns out to be screw me, I should have followed and got on it, but if he lost, it turns out to be, screw me why I fell prey and did not really pump it up.  I hope you understand what I am saying here?  Also, the opposite bettors of today, they wait till the very last second and throw up a table min or super small wager against whatever the larger players are wagering.  And the last group of today's players are the, cutters.  Playing to cut.  I understand once again the CUT.  Streaks are not the only way to win, not at all.  Strong is Strong.  Streaks, cuts, chops, 1-2-3s, all of the patterns, I have written about it at length.  So years ago, we used to all be virtually on the same side in good situations, and we would only lose the LAST wager on whatever gravy train was being presented, 5 or 10 or 15 hands and then back to normal and individual wagering, etc.  ALL OF THAT IS HARDLY PRESENT TODAY.)

RE: Pro Progressive.  No.  And I kick myself, did not even think of it at the time.  I had one friend there, and we usually play together in the majority of the wagering.  However the others were mostly all banker types most all hands or they play for the cut.  It was vocal and it did influence me, I will admit as embarrassing as it is.  I will say now and I know if this happened mid shoe or even later, I would have killed it considerably larger.  Also, those 2 ties were both natural ties, so it was like, here comes the bankers side coming forth.  Pressed 2nd and third after ties, stayed on players.  Cut way down on the 5th player because of huge money on the banker side and my thought, too good to be true.  Then the player came out once again and I stayed on it and the natural came out for the banker and it was a N9 against a players B8.  I went for the players to come back after that N9 first banker and lost and the table once again smacked it hard.  Now everyone was on the banker even my friend.  I stayed on the player with a smaller wager.  And it was a natural and I pleaded with them to let's do an old school and rock n roll.  Everyone stuck banker.   I pumped it up but no where near what I should have.  Good money for sure, but not great.  The last two natural in the 2nd row started to change the table.  But their wagers were small, smaller than usual in every aspect.  I know the people pretty well.  They would be betting a few green chips instead of their normal black and purples, etc.  All of what was happening and being presented was highly unusual in so many ways, not typical but far and large.  However, it was there and it was as Asym said, the casino has to pay, etc.  But you have to be so neutral, open minded, forget the past, realize anything and everything happens if you play enough, etc., and all of that is not easy with a full table of people or playing by yourself.  I have seen almost full shoes of doubles, or chops, or streaks that run 18-19-20-28 and 29 to one side.  Yes, not often, but they all appear and what the heck difference does it matter if you can win thousands on every hand, hand after hand on say 15 chop chops, or 15 doubles or a streak of 15 players or bankers?  When you bring $50k of chips to the cashier the cashier does not ask, how did you win those--I have to know before I cash those? 

To me, maybe not yourselves, the hardest shoes to play are the 1s, 2s and 3s, a streak of 4 to 7 here and there and everything mixed in the way most shoes are, is super hard.  Because you wind up losing just as quick as you did winning the highest majority of the times.  Playing chops you lose on the second repeats, playing for 3 and cut or 4 and cut you lose when it repeats, playing for doubles you lose when it chops, playing for streaks you lose when it does not. So on and so forth.  That is the simple reason, no one strategy or system will ever work.
 



How or did these initial P runs affect your wagering approach when the even better P-runs presented in P columns 3/4???  Yes, the influence was there, but (and honestly trying my best to recreate the feelings and thoughts here as I was sitting at the table playing it.  In one sense, too good to be true.  In another, everyone once again was right back to the banker with larger wagers.  I stuck on the players but smaller amounts, I did switch up at least 2 times to the banker and then when back to the player I would wager even a smaller amount as usual, maybe a test amount?  It was the perfect scenario to do table max and if it one just keep doing it until you lose the last one, but that is armchair quarterbacking talk.  More so than the board or the presentments themselves, the people did influence me. I am not blaming them, I am merely telling you how I was influenced.

Without knowing anything else I likely would NOT have continued with my largest wager on Player C1 hit # 5th/6th, however, after the first two P colum runs the 3rd/4th P runs that showed immediately following your toteboard pic,  would have been difficult to stay off. Especially with such precedence showing at that strength level. (Well I guess the answer I laid out above pretty much covers this one also.  This shoe brings back the old school days of Atlantic City in the 80's and the 90's with no electronic scoreboards and where there were all back tables, 14 players, 7 each side, no back betting, 2 dealers sitting, 1 dealer standing, 2 floor people with one behind each of the 7 players each side, etc.  The casino would have been out hundreds of thousands of dollars, easily.  Because the whole table would have been together.  The thing about the old school days is almost all of us seldom left unless we won large.  I learned as I stated the past few years or so.  There is a time to win large and there are times when you just cannot win or get past even status.) 

....just hypothesizing as maybe dif opinion if more info, ..who knows as kinda the ol hindsight always converges toward 20/20. 

*I know its easy to monday-morning quarterback a game like this

Here is one from yesterday.  Lord O Lord did a few of us hit the casino hard, the rest lost big time.  No one believed what was happening was happening.  I took the picture and could not take it another one after the players went another 15 or so to about 3 more bankers.  SO what you see here, the next hand was 1 banker, than about another 7 players and then 2 more bankers.  Then another 8 players.  So it wound up being 26 players to 5 bankers. 

Almost every single player hand that was not a natural, was something that brought the players up to either 7-8 or 9 each time.  Like if the banker had a 7 on the first 2 cards and the players had say a 1, the players would flop a 7 or 8 for their 3rd card.  If something like that did not happen, then the players would win by 1.  Like the Players would have 0 and the banker had 2, the players would draw a 3 and the bankers would flop a 10/face for their 3rd card. Half of the players naturals would be a 9 and the banker would have a natural 8 each time. 

Yes there is. But. And a HUGE 'But' indeed, most all people will win a couple/few hands and then their factual based decision-making and wagering turns to egotistic beliefs.

(Egotistical or Fallacy, Past Experiences that were positive or negative, etc., etc.)

Sorry to say and a lot of you don't want to hear it, it is present in most all of us.  You have to look in the mirror and you have to look in from the outside and it's not easy to accept, but we're mostly all guilty of it and you have to kick it.

Because when that happens the Frustration, Chase and Loss, comes around once again.

The mistake made is you see what you desire turning off factual based or biased available opportunities to Hope and Greed, because your mind immediately turns to:

1)  Making previous losses back;

2)  Losing sight of what is possible and focusing on unrealistic win amounts.

It is a vicious and a mean cycle that the majority of players do not understand. Once you understand it, you will add so much of an advantage that your game will change if you are strong enough to play when only within the Bias and resisting play when knowing you are outside of it while you are at the table.

Not an easy protocol to learn and follow, but in all of my years of playing and now my accumulated experience, I believe it is the number one most important and beneficial to the player.

I have some great great examples from last night of some shoes with actual pictures of the scoreboard. 

I will post them when I get a chance to make the notes and do some editing. I'll try to get it done tonight.

You need to be acclimated to Drawdowns and accept they are a part of almost every session.

Drawdown what is it?

It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing of profit from your buy in.

First.  When does it occur. It can be in the very beginning of your session or it can equally be in the middle or towards the end, when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your buy in money.  Drawdown can happen at any time. The only time it will not happen is if you win in the very beginning and keep winning and cash out never losing any of your buy in.

Second.  In my opinion it should only be viewed with the amount in front of you. Not collectively from previous sessions or running tallies, etc.

Third. Again in my opinion the Drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous Drawdowns either. The presentments are different and there is no reason to compare. You have to remember Drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate with no rhythm and no reason to attempt to define anything more than what I just said. They are completely random and will always be random.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that will not and cannot be avoided. You tell yourself you will not let the pressure and anything else get to you, but it will. The larger the Drawdown the greater and more intense those feelings will be. Be ultra conscious of that, stop getting sucked in.

Fifth.  Do not confuse Drawdown with Stop-Loss. Many will fail to see the difference but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined, unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of, "winning this session and it is time for me to stop", thought and belief. A better way to describe it is, you realize your buy in is your risk money and you will play until you win or lose and you are not doing what some people do, which is ridiculously sit down say with $1,000 and if you lose $300 you're done. Or if you lose say 3 or 5 wagers, your done, etc.  All that does is put an undue amount of pressure on you, because you have money there you are saying you're not willing to wager and you cannot wager and you have to make money on a certain percentage of it. Trust me it's a huge negative in sitting down at the table.

Stop Loss is simply like I said, a set amount of money if you lose out of your buy in money you will stop playing, no leeway, no questions asked.  That is if it's truly a set Stop Loss amount.

Realize that there will be fluctuating Drawdowns at any time prior to winning a decent amount of money or getting a profit, that you had in mind and one that you have to risk on a continual basis. Allow it to be so and you will take off a lot of pressure and a lot of frustration from your frame of mind in handling your money at the table.

People normally render the factual as absolute, because of their own failure to understand and decipher the positiveness and negativity of randomness and what the real meaning of it is, as well as what it is not.

You have to understand what are just beliefs such as your emotions and your thoughts, and the various types of behavior generated by those two. They will perpetuate themselves to a projection of your decisions outside of your  consciousness in most cases.

It will absolutely feel real to generate real behavior and not generating behavior based on a fact. It is in all essence a prescription that parallels reality but in most cases when gambling, that is a suspended state that we allow our emotions and thoughts to overcome and send us sideways.  Therefore you fail to allow yourself the proper frame of mind to benefit your wagering decisions.

We need a connection to a source and let the information flow into our decision-making process and for each of us, that is not going to be the same. Do not get caught up as most do with all the 'factual information' out there from the highest majority of the people writing on the forums who state that they are translating factual events into a mechanical type of system or schedule. It cannot be accomplished in any manner. In my opinion that comes from years of experience, that will only throw you sideways like I said from really allowing yourself to understand and develop rock-solid wagering techniques and a better understanding of the presentments coming from the shoe.

At most I would recommend viewing information as a channel. And use that channel as one of many in order to find successful wagers that can benefit yourself.

You cannot perceive what you do not understand. And my opinion is, that you will never understand or be able to transfer into your frame of mind and thought process, countless factual information/material that will translate itself into successful scheduled triggers for yourself. 

And most of all, you have the freedom to choose positivness, negativity or neutralism and how to apply each of those three in the countless situations that table games present within its presentments.

Alrelax.

Two things come instantly to mind reference your last few posts.  Copy and pasted from a post of mine.

1)   First and foremost, anything and everything can continue or cease within a shoe;

5)  You cannot adjust your emotional level on the better and larger wins (and losses) as easy as you might believe you can. This is super important and that emotional level will send you into another realm of belief, that you should not be in and one you cannot understand at the table.

Alrelax.

Part 2:   https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUefpM48EgM

Good show on the side of casino related info/entertainment.  Enjoy.   

Part 1:  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SRQAn08oFE

As ASYM said in the post above:
"Baccarat is not a game of math results, baccarat is a game of card distributions favoring this or that."

I add:

Exactly.  And once a player is well acclimated with the game of baccarat, he can generally find that those very distributions are contained within Sections.

Problem continually arising is the change of the presentments or the extended continuance no one believes is actually happening. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 11:07:01 PM
Hint: streaks of any lenght are going to our favor no matter what and for that matter most part of chopping situations or short patterns will go to our favor too.
It's a strict math based evaluation plan challenging sym spots vs asym spots.

as.

Certain things will happen and will not happen, no matter what. 

If its being presented, wager on it.  If not, don't  wager on it. 

There is a huge difference in what I am saying versus trying to change the presentments. 

Alrelax

And summarizing in layman's terms/actual brick and mortar casino players results, the drawdown will kill most players buy-ins and/or bankrolls before their opportunities are presented for those 'spots' you so technically define in the above post.

Please do not take it the wrong way, I'm not criticizing your writing and your comments, I'm just making an observation to stress the drawdown, the patience required, the frame of mind and everything else that is mandatory in trying to catch all of this, which I've learned over the years.

However as I talked about and write about there are opportunities and entrance points that I repeatedly remind everybody of, called SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS and the key to really profiting and preserving your bankroll and minimizing risk with your buy ins, is being extremely conscious and remaining neutral in your frame-of--mind when you are playing. Not easy to do, not at all.

Quote from: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:09:07 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy--good thread/ post.

Your sentence:
"... An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.  ..."

Can you clarify the phrase in bold? or give an example. thx



Continued Success,

"For that matter, many high end casinos know very well the baccarat vulnerability, they'll simply hope that players like to get huge winnings within too short intervals or liking to wager the insourmountable negative edge apllied to side bets.

Simple back to back outcomes and complex back to back outcomes"



My Response:

I've tried to detail it out and show pictures of it and mark up scoring boards repetitively. What I entitled and discussed; SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS. Small sections can be extremely profitable however, it will play with our minds and we (generally) attempt/try to keep following and not cash out or go back to a neutral position, which we MUST do to be extremely profitable.

It all boils down to, our frame-of-mind.

ALRELAX

 

Happy Father's Day to all with kids.

Stay safe and be well.

Always, Alrelax
Administrator/Board Owner