Quote from: ChopChop on May 29, 2019, 03:30:33 AM
Hell of a trip report, that was an awesome read!  A good percentage of the time you go play baccarat, its going to be a losing session.  Even the few that are up lifetime will lose close to half of there sessions statistically speaking.

Which got me to thinking about your style of play.  Yes you can lose your buyin just like anyone else, but your pounce on it mentality you describe allows you to really hit some big ones once in awhile. And a loss is a loss, doesn't matter if its death by a thousand cuts or 8 or 9 shots.  Why not give yourself an opportunity to maximize your profits if you actually do end up on the positive side in a session.

You are entirely correct!  1,000,000 %.

Bumped for Asym, this is simply a great bac side bet table.  One of the best.

I seldom play roulette but at this one B&M casino I pass by their two roulette tables to get to the Bac room.

I look all the time.  Last night I saw 2 Back to back 29s and 27, 30 and 32 hit right after the 29s.  Then I saw 20 hit followed by 18 and 23.

When I looked at the board I saw at least 4 times, numbers were hit that were connected to each other with at least 2 to 4 hits each fir each group.

Welcome back, we are still here!

I scanned a few forums this morning.  LOL!  Love the dedication to so called testing.  But where in the hell does playing a shoe or two or three at a casino produce the same or nearly the same results as the tested average of 1,000 or 20,000 or 1,000,000 shoes?

Love the circle of drama driven people on each forum that live to chastise, humiliate and degrade others.

Love those members on certain forums that report their wins with zero proof, zero evidence, zero anything in fact except something along the lines of, 'the only way to win is to wager banker after such and such happens', etc.

And all the other repetitive standardized answers that they believe portrays themselves as discovering and actually possessing the Holy Grail and can apply it at will, anywhere anytime. 

Lots more, but the nonsense outweighs all else.

I did catch something with almost no response against it or for it though.  Which was; 'Many people claim they win all the time, if that is true they have the actual Holy Grail.  They should write a book, publish the proven system, and a host of other similar things that would generate tens of millions of dollars for themselves.  They should also play in casinos at baccarat tables which have never banned players for solely winning regardless of what has been claimed.  But they come on message boards to write nonsense and that is all.  There is not one single system, scheduled wagering plan, statistical betting format or anything of the likes that will consistently prevail.  And it will not, cannot, never did and never will.'

So very true! In fact, GREAT.

As I said within the original post I start this thread with still is super prevalent to this day, "And as always, one thing that has never really changed is, the responsibility is with the person who is seeking the results, stories, data and trying to get information on what is going on.  And that is going to hold down the successful use of the message boards for quite some time.  The other thing on the message boards that makes it so difficult, IMO, is the declassification of the members knowledge, experience, and ability.  Everyone is within one room like I said.  While that is fine for many, many really do not desire to teach gambling 101, every time they sign on to check for content, etc.  And those that are just coming on board, they have a ton of questions and little answers.  Fitting in is tough to do, in so many situations.  Couple that, with the bothersome 5 or 7 or 10 members almost all boards have, that are only present to stir the pot, cause trouble, show off, contribute nothing, challenge most everything with their expression of free speech, etc., and it brings down the overall good purpose and great melting pot that most of us really do desire."

I look at the amount of units in his wishful thinking of Marty, etc., for a loss.

Wagering a few hundred or $750.00 or say $1,500.00 a hand to start, he is talking astronomical amount of wagers that would be past all table maximums at B&M casinos.

Waste of time. 

Good Morning!  The following is a detailed event that came to light at the baccarat room the other night.

GETTING REAL

It stood out, basic skills, a bit of reserved advanced skills, math trying to be applied skills and a huge dose of viewing random presentments thinking and believing that they were all structured hands that could be entered and exited at certain times with nice profitable wagering.  Shake it all up with individual life skills, egos, bankrolls and most of all, that desperation to walk away a winner, is exactly the way I viewed the table of players. 

WHAT REAL ACTUALLY IS

Real-Life events that will overtake any structured thought of presentments that are 'due' to come out or appear at anytime whatsoever.  And the highest majority of all players, like in the 99% range plus, will swear up and down that they will adhere to before getting to the casino.  However, at the table it is almost always the total opposite.

WHY SO MANY?

I really do want to understand why so many of the people I witness, being ripped-from their buy ins, repeatedly return and return and return.  I do talk to most of them as I have played a long time with the highest majority of them.  Answers range from, I never win, to I win some times but I almost always give it back, to I always try for larger wins after winning something and my greed makes me think disastrous. 

Very seldom do I ever hear about their Money Management Methods and how they hold a percentage of what they win or how they only lose a buy in as risk capital from a previous portion of a win, that allows them to strictly play on the casino's money as their working capital.  But all I ever hear is what they have available to them through their set aside money taking from their jobs or other money sources. 

You know what I realized after serious thoughts about most everyone there playing?  Here is what I came up with.  They heighten their moments, putting aside the bad and surrounding themselves with the good, speculate into the desires of erasing all of their mistakes and losses, leaving them with an unattainable amount of money to come their way in the shoes they sit down to play. 

But I still wondered, why do they continue to play after so many many attempts and the massive destruction to their financial situation they caused themselves?  And the answer I came up with was,  because the highest majority of people, despite what seems realistic, prefer their results to be along the lines of what they actually know and are accustomed to, not necessarily what the reality is or will be. 

WHAT AND WHY IN THE FUTURE

It is not going to change for the 99% plus players because they will never realize what reality actually is.  All they will ever admit to or confess is, I can't believe that happened or I should have done such and such. 

The absolute fear of surprise is what gets most.  Surprise?  Yes, surprise.  IMO and experience, despite what people may say or agree to, really do prefer events that they know.  Why?  Because they really don't know it, haven't thought of it, are not accustomed to it and fear most of all*, the loss of their money in anyway they have not experienced-which is their own little grove that the highest percentage of the times, leads to their losses with their justification of those through the placement of blame*. 

(Blame.  Place blame on it they continually remember; With following anything such as chop-2s-3s-repeating and so on, listening to others, being told what to wager on, and the listening to others or reading about structured wagering on certain presentments, etc. etc.).

That is what came to me the other night in the baccarat room. 

......."distributed as a possible 'bias' is spread at different degrees along any shoe dealt.
Sometimes such bias is too weak to be exploited,  most of the times it will."

That is what you said in the above post. And that is so correct, it is so simple, the same as the alphabet starting with ABC and ending with XYZ.

And when the bias is strong, so many players get in the 'I can't believe it frame of mind' they sit there and wait it out or they wager heavily for the 'cut' that is another 8 or 10 or 15 hands away.   

The story goes on...

The most important thing is a totally open mind without ego.

Lack of experience is made up with a good dose of intensity and curiosity. But do not allow feelings to come into play.  They will hurt you, I promise.

There is no easy way out. Always remember that and always use that as a basis for thought when you are confused at the table wagering.

Do not rely on the obvious unless you check it, recheck it and check it countless times in fact. You will see how all those "wrongs", and those "wow how did that happen" and those "why didn't I bet for that' will repetitively appear.  You didn't bet for those because you had so many feelings that clouded your mind and your vision.  Simple, but your so egotistical you just can't see it.

The most important thing you have to learn is to know what you don't know. You have to realize you can better your knowledge, your mind of game, and set aside that overpowering ego, those hampering  desires and the growing wishes.

Even if you see someone doing something that you label as "wrong" you might really learn something about yourself that proves unique and quite profitable by finding out what they are doing. It just might be the "right" way after all and correct a whole bunch of your "wrongs".  At least a part of their logic and play mixed with yours, will allow you to discount and get rid of a portion of your "wrongs".  But remember, feelings are always there when you start looking at your own play.

Without suffering you will have no idea what joy and bliss actually are at the gaming table or elsewhere.

Engage In No Obstacles

Ego becomes an influence. When influenced at Baccarat most all players begin making the wrong decisions, which will become a huge liability to themselves.

Unfortunately without them realizing just that, they begin to lose. They compound their poor decisions with making additional poor decisions through the added pressure and stress, attempting to recover the lost wagers. This is the point most players get to rather quickly in the game.

Here are the five pro and cons about obstacles which I have defined over the years and it always works out through one form or another to be spot on with the below chart or darn close.

THE 2 SIDES TO JUST ABOUT EVERYONES PLAYING NO MATTER YOUR EXPERIENCE AND SKILL LEVEL.  SAY NOT ME AND YOU JUST HAVE NOT PLAYED ENOUGH YET.

PRO                                                    CON

1)  Clear Frame of Mind                    1)  Blurred Frame of Mind

2)  Intuitive                                         2)  Dicey

3)  Common Sense                            3)  Wishful Thinking

4)  Readability (Aware & Using)          4)  Desperately Wagering 

5)  Capitalizing on Good Sections      5)  Scared to Wager

Easier said than accomplished at the table. Seems like there are two sides, one the atmosphere/action and two, rationalization and reality of what I listed above. There is a way to use other people playing at the table for camaraderie and another way to be aloof and concentrate by yourself.

I have said this many times........

"deny 'normal' statistical deviations as any tie happened seems to 'erase' or lower any back to back expected probability."

Low ties 0-1-2-3 when there are plenty of hands out, tend to produce nice clumps of whatever.  Meaning, the presentations will basically follow something relatively easy to follow.  Higher amounts of ties say 5-6 and up, tend to produce much harder to follow presentations, etc.

Reality is the presentments of the shoe without any influences whatsoever. Not the shuffle, not to cut or the burn or anything else. Not a whole host of other things so many people believe influences the presentments and how the cards will be presented.  Oh and reality is going to prove an unknown amount of chops, streaks, ones and twos, doubles, triples and any and all other combinations of various trends without any rhyme or reason. Reality will also produce a completely different outcome for the following shoe or possibly extremely close to the same, no telling. Reality will also produce an extremely predictable section of presentments or perhaps a totally unpredictable section of events. That is a good example of reality at plays as well.

If you do not believe what I am saying here go to the casino with a set of mechanical scheduled triggers of any type and wager on that. Wagering on just those  while ignoring the entire surrounding of everything and anything. Wager and see what happens. Does not matter how many wagers your schedule is, whether it's three or six or nine or 18 or every hand. Play that and keep playing that. See how long and how much you profit week after week after week.

Please do it and honestly report on the results.

What you said:

"In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long"..............

Is exactly spot-on.  However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

Groups=Sections? 

Great post and so true 8OR9.