You know Asym, I tried in short to merge the two things that usually always happen into the reality of live B&M play which was the beginning and ending.

Most all people lose because of what they have never witnessed or experienced in play, novice or seasoned players.  Seriously. 

And you are so spot on about #2.  Thanks. 

But to the highest majority at the tables it sure does. Either to 'show off' to the others, or to attempt to satisfy their own ego that they have it all figured out, etc.  Winning is money and it certainly spends the exact same way whatever the reason it was that caused you to wager.

Camaraderie is one thing among a couple/few players and getting on to a win-streak and clearly pumping up your wagers as well as your A-Alpha energy is another positive thing, but all of those that attempt control of the table because of their egotistical voodoo to show off and fuel their sheer guesses while continually pointing to the score board explaining why such and such has to happen, is total upcoming negativity by the boat loads about to set in. 

The keys to winning are really narrowed down to two things.

1). What wins this session/shoe/section probably won't, might to a limited manner, or definitely will not in the following ones.

2). Anything, including the presentments you have never experienced can and will occur and win.

Remember, at least try to anyways the above two things because baccarat is a game of presentments that make appearances as well as disappearances. The tricky part is there is no balance, rhyme or reason as far as the statistical definable number between the appearances and the disappearances.

Yep, once again I did my couple month scan of most forums and gotta love those exact same, non-fading words; "I don't read all of your long-winded postings I do admit".  And then they go into the explanation which is kind of long-winded itself most of the time, explaining how they only read the first few sentences and the last few sentences"................., etc and so on.

Once in a while a so called 'regular' will drop out and then immediately or soon after a 'newbie' will join the fighting drama aggressive small group in their attempts to control the forum or section of the forum they reside in. 

Gotta love it!

QuoteHi all,

alrelax in reply #685:

"...My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted.

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. ..."


re: Ties. Personally, I view them as diluting the strength of what is presenting. Typically, and with no other better intel I treat them as place holders to whatever pattern is recently presenting. For example, if a T shows in the current string as: PBPBT (I would view the T as a continuance of what is happening "P slot" and would wager for B). I will also look at most recent 2-3 Ties just before this event and see if the pattern turned or continued and wager for whatever has been occurring.

Another T method I utilize (and have not confirmed if it is beneficial) is to look at how the two sides approached the Tie and wager on the increasing totals side. For example, let's say Bs recent hand totals were 8,7,6 and Ps recent hand totals were 4,5,6. Then I would wager for P after the T because it was "increasing" as it approached the T.

I would estimate that my success rate is probably near expectation.

Continued Success,

Thinking............Thinking back—I have to bring forward that often a tie designates a struggling side for whatever reason.  However, and a huge however, is that a Tie will allow one additional same side continuing win.  I find this more often true with the larger point value Ties, 7s-8s & 9s than others. 

I do agree with the previous same (same) shoe, what happened after the previous ties came out analogy, etc. 

Ref: " knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers."

While it's happening, wagers like gangbusters and the cut down and try/wait for another red carpet.

Problem being, most all players wait too long to start wagering or parlaying and as well, keep going way way too long once it's done.

Those are the two largest downfalls, IMO.

QuoteThanks Asymbacguy

I like your paragraph:
"...To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.
...."

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.

Thx,

My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted. 

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. 

KFB, great input, thanks,


Alrelax

I highly recommend from the bottom of my heart, the realization of what you are up against.  You will never smack the casino so hard that it actually hurts them!  You have to view each and every session of your play as a one time, brand new event without attempting recourse, revenge or make-up on any of your previous sessions where upon you lost.  It will only cloud your mind, your vision and put huge pressure and unrealistic goals you probably will not be able to meet.  You also have to have a certain amount of buy-in as a one-time event that is realistic as compared to your bankroll and a concrete refusal to buy-in a second time if you happened to lose the original buy-in amount.  That should be considered always 100% of the time, your stop loss figure.  This way when you win and apply something along the lines of my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd application of your win, within my Money Management Method system, your wins will far outnumber your losses, if you are truly playing with discipline and not vengeance.

The whole movement will be worth a heck of a lot less next summer (summer or even earlier than 2023). 

Watch and see. Recession and Devaluation stirred extremely well together, extremely. 

Did I mention extremely?

A long post I wrote, but IMO ultra spot-on.  Bump.

Here.  Having no plan, no realization, no recognition of how or when or what happened, will lead the player to disaster every time.  When the player can figure out the things I wrote about here and realize where the path is and what the curves and junctions mean, within those paths, the player is taking the knowledge and the experience and using it in a 100% pro-active and informational source that will benefit the player if he can only truly understand "Fooled by Reality" and "Fooled by His Own Desire".

First of all, wins are much tougher to handle and manage for most all players versus their losing sessions.

It's not easy to explain all in a thread on most forums, because the post will become lengthy, complex and take all sort of directions.  As well people will dismiss what the whole purpose of the thread is. But I'm going to attempt to put something out there, that I partially wrote about in the past and something that happened recently that's easy to explain.

Just a few days ago at a B&M casino, late at night after a full days work of 12 hours which was following a previous nights short play with a session win. So, I remove my original buy-in and returned to the casino with 'pure' win money having nothing to do with my bank roll or other personal pocket money. Which to me, gives me an extra advantage with deeper and clearer frame-of-mind when I start playing.

Having a complete clear frame-of-mind and a very positive motivational thought in my opinion are huge player advantage avenues. I was willing to risk the 'pure' win money I brought as a buy-in for the session. 

Okay, while playing you better realize plenty!  No matter if you are winning or losing.

How much can I win?
How much am I prepared to lose?
Can I recoup my current losses and get back positive?
I am winning, I don't want to give it back, should I stop?
Thinking, if I stop while winning, I can't win more.

While winning you are in many ways encouraged to continue, by yourself, other persons and even the casino personnel. Be careful and be conscious of EVERYTHING is all I can say, as it will give you 'fake' support. And that normally results in a loss of your winning an additional bankroll monies.

When you begin to lose while winning, it will most likely be more emotional, produce a greater level of frustration, causing you to blackout clear thought process quicker, and hamper your ability to clearly apply knowledge-experience and intuition in deeper amounts than if you did not already win.

When you have no more money, handling it is really no problem, no dilemma, you must quit, PERIOD.  But, winning is really the total opposite.

Anyone that has won sizable amounts at the table runs into a much more difficult decision making process. Play or quit. Countless people continue or stop and start again at another table or casino rather quickly. Doing so usually results in a complete loss of that win money as well as additional monies.

Most people do not subscribe to their own Levels and Plateaus or do they believe in withholding their buy-in and applying their win, to other outside things rather than gaming.  All they see is increased bets, longer play, larger winning, finally realizing they are conquering the game and similar false and very dangerous avenues they plan to adhere to.

All the gobbledygook on the Internet about applying wins to your bank roll, wagering larger and more aggressively is dead wrong. 100% wrong! It will hurt you and hurt you in very big ways.  Gaming, wagering, frame-of-mind and all the many other things that will determine your wins and losses and how you handle them, will not follow with larger bank rolls, larger bets, larger wins, 'type of plan'. At this time I can't put it into exact words but I will tell you, it will play on your decision making process the total opposite way of what you should be thinking and subscribing to.

Myself, I attempt to apply numerous M.M.M. traits, that I have written about. They work well for myself without any doubt. But discipline must still be applied and adhered to.  Which is very possible but not easy. Especially when the wins come and come nicely.

While I was winning the other night, after I doubled my buy-in, I did lose most of my win. Numerous thoughts of stopping were addressed and I went slightly outside of my norm of 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd, application of my win money. I did apply my buy-in as current win money, what I normally do not do. But in this case I did it.

I began to win again and really took off with larger and more aggressive wins. I became more aggressive and that paid off nicely, which is generally against the norm and past experiences I might add. I got to the point where I easily won 5 to 6 times the amount of my buy-in. Once again, the thought process was only to play and keep playing. Should I have stopped when I won 5 to 6 times the buy-in amount I was at?  I can not honestly answer that.  After a bit, I once again began to lose, my win level dropped quickly down to the point I quadrupled my buy-in.  I stopped.  To slow myself down, I was actually getting up and texting a member from this forum.  Sending pics of the score board, etc. 

The dilemma i was in, I was very conscious of was, buy-in doubled, lost win and continued playing got me up to 5 to 6 times the buy-in. Lost 1 to 2 times the buy-in. Stop or continue, plenty of 'won' ammunition to possibly get up to double what I had in front of me. Meaning 9 or 10 or 11 times the buy-in or double the four times buy-in and win sitting in front of myself. I wanted to stop, but equally as much, I wanted to continue. I stopped and cashed out.

I could have continued and maybe won a lot more than what I did, but I know of the extreme frustration that could have set in if I continued to lose and I am not a close friend with that kind of frustration.

Frustration is dangerous and frustration makes good/great players do stupid things. Remember that.

I had a nice win. Now at least a week or more without going back. And when I do, it is back to my same Level and Plateau before that win, I am comfortable with and I know I am at. Anything else IMO, experience and knowledge, is not to my advantage in anyway whatsoever.

First of all, Asym—- you and I go way back and you are one of the best (even though I know a tad bit more than you    << Me, << You).

Second of all, your paragraph, "Yeah, gambling is not for everyone, arrogant or abusive people, sober or stoned, should find another hobby.", is spot on.  I have written about a well varied mix of people at the tables and it does influence the majority of all players in one way or another, good and bad, positively and negatively!

Your not going anywhere, just like myself, we are here for a very long time to come. 

Your Comrade and Peer,
Alrelax

As you said:  " 6) The more a side bet is silent higher is the probability to get it along the way.

Without a proper card counting, side bets are not more likely to come out after a period of 'silence'.
Actually it's true the opposite.
Most of the times, we awake about side bets when they come out clustered, before that we simply ignore their possibility to happen.

7) 'I'm doing so bad that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates' or 'I'm doing so good that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates'. 

In most of the cases, it's a fatal error.
We can't know how long a bad or good sequence will come out and the simple countermeasure to adopt is to keep betting when good things happen and not betting when bad things happen.
Stopping to bet after a good sequence happened is very easy, the opposite scenario is way more difficult to manage."

Numbers 6 and 7 to the MAX!

Last night PERFECT EXAMPLES!

I posted notes and shoe pictures.  Side bets galore!!

Profit city

Look at my post #7 in the following thread:

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11423.0

I totally understand, but I learned many years ago, never ever cuss out or talk stuff about a dealer, direct it to the shoe itself.  Everyplace I know, we can cuss at and talk or yell trash to the shoe.  If the dealer does say anything, we make it clear to the floor personnel, we are talking to the shoe.

But I understand.  Thanks, Alrelax

ASYM,

Two thought only.

1). The real deal.

2). Would love to play at same table as we tried earlier in the year but unsuccessful.

Thanks,
Admin/Board Owner
Alrelax