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Messages - alrelax

#436
True MONEY-MANAGEMENT is rarely practiced by most baccarat players.

I can only imagine because as the wins come in, they are fully under the belief that they will continue and they get into another frame of mine that turns to Greed, Recouping Past Losses and being thoroughly convinced that whatever they just won can easily be multiplied by 10 times, 20 times, 50 times, etc., etc.

Then when a few losses start their mind-frames change once again. And that is to get back the win money that they so "stupidly" allowed to slip away.

Each player is so proud of their extreme intelligence, their experience, their knowledge and what's more, their egos are huge and of course they set themselves in overdrive to not only get their lost win money back they allowed to slip away, but a substantial profit as well.

Then as a few more losses mount the frustration level, the pressure and the stress over their buyin and bankroll becomes overwhelming. Hence, a vicious and ugly session once again.

Wins and losses will happen. Read and believe anything you want on the Internet or industry published  items for sale that convince you otherwise, but losses and losing time or bad luck or whatever it's called will catch up with you .  If you want to believe otherwise stop reading and just go play and do what you can do. The only way to hold your wins is with a REAL and PLAYER advantaged money management method, such as the one I refined, tested, proven and use. Otherwise all everybody will do is wind up giving back their wins along with their buy-ins and or bankrolls.

People say that Money Management is 'up and pull' and 'progressions' or 'flat betting' or 'loss stops' and 'win stops' techniques, etc., etc. They are not, not on there on anyway, those are wagering techniques plain and simple. Money Management is a mechanical system that will enable you to hold, compound and continue to win additional money if your bet selection is correct. Money Management has nothing to do with what betting decision is made to wager, it has to do with the amount you wager and what you do with your wager win money.

What is my Money Management Method?

1)    Bankroll
         Buy-in

2)    Positive Progression

3)    1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Set-Asides

4)    1 + 4 Side Parlay

5)    Sections & Turning Points

6)    Level & Plateau

You Must Always Employ:   Value, Respect, Recognition to the 6 sections of MMM listed above.  ALWAYS.

Reference #3: And here is how it works.

1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd With the Win Money

Here is the summation.

When I win, I take 1/3 of the win money and pocket it, cash it and will not in any way whatsoever use it.  I take another 1/3 of the win money and increase my Bankroll with it.  I take the remaining 1/3rd of the win money and keep it as a reserve if I lose my bankroll I am playing with and still desire to play longer.

You can do it with any amount of win.  Say you buy in with $600.00 and get up to $1,800.00.  Take $400 and pocket it.  Increase your Bankroll to $1,000.00 and put the other $400 in your pocket as a backup bankroll.

Say you won another $1,000.00.  Take $350.00 and make your bankroll $1,350.00.  Take another $350.00 and put it with the $400.00 and that makes $750.00 you can't touch.  Take the other $300.00 and put it with the reserve bankroll you have of $400 making it now $700.00.

For me, I get the piece of mind, that I always have another chance if I lose and still want to keep playing.  I have something from my win money already 'locked up' and cannot be touched.  I have a slightly bigger bankroll.  When I do these things, it stops me from playing the way I used to with win money, and seldom holding on to it when things turned ugly.

All I know for me and some others, compiling the win money into your bankroll sitting on the table, only makes it subjected to larger bets and being lost easier than it does without some kind of plan.

Do it with any amount of win money, adjust it for your own psychological well being.  To me and most I speak with, it is easier to walk away after winning, when you know you have really tried to win more and maybe one more shot or another round at a table after a meal or a break, etc.  Maybe you can win money and stack it up in front of you and value it properly, but for most players it makes them play a bit more recklessly and dangerously then when they initially sat down with XYZ bankroll.


Be Smart. Employ Control, Patience and Money Management Method.

"Believing it is coming",  "It is right around the corner" or "I will just keep trying", will drain you each and every time. I promise you it will, PROMISE.  Mark my words you might not want to admit it, but I'm completely spot-on about that one.

Baccarat is a 50-50 game, I don't care what anyone says on the Internet about odds, it's a 50/50 game. It is not hard to win. What is hard, is to keep the win money. What is also extremely hard is to keep winning. Why? Because that 50-50 chance moves into the casinos favor greater and greater with every hand you play.

And the longer you play the more you will lose, Win Money or your own Buy-in Money.  Unlike what almost everybody subscribes to, which is the longer you play the more you will win.

You will not beat the odds each and every time you sit at the table. You will not accomplish what every player believes they so easily can, so stop trying. But you can compound, hold and incorporate win money into your bank roll if you use my Money Management Method not one doubt about it, NOT ONE!!
#437
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
April 21, 2021, 08:25:54 PM
Both sides have the same characteristics. Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does.

It's just like everything else in player and banker and side bets at the baccarat table, sometimes it happens and sometimes it does not. 

You're sitting there for a very limited amount of time and all of the math and all of the fallacies from hundreds of thousands of hands or hundreds of thousands of shoes, does not count for that one, two or three shoes you're sitting down for your session.
#438
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
April 21, 2021, 03:32:01 PM
"You must learn to respond to what is actually factual and happening. And not to what you think or is in your beliefs",  and so on.

Leave out the beliefs, leave out the emotions, leave out thinking every wagering hand about your bank roll or your buy in money. You must!!!!

You cannot touch upon or interface with math at the table for the 15 or 25 or so hands for the 1, 2 or 3 shoes your wagering real money on, in real time attempting Progressive Wagers in order to actually take down some money.

You know in my opinion and that of many other experienced players, the most intelligent and profitable players have the best chance to capitalize on the game of baccarat using extreme control and being conscious of everything that we talk about.

There are lots of important items to learn, use and possess that will give you large advantages in baccarat. Like I said anyone can win and anyone can lose. How much you do of either one is totally up to you and it has a lot to do with many things especially Control and Consciousness at the table.

Just for example, control will allow you to capitalize on positive progressions when it is the right time as well as not getting sucked in and following worthless fallacies and destined losers amongst many other things at the tables.
#439
Low Ties=Presentment Consistency.  I've written about it many times 0 1 2 3 ties equal presentment consistency. I mean it will continue within a section to be consistent in the type of winning hands and this is another great example in the beginning of the shoe.

Also you have player heavy in the beginning of the shoe at least some way to make money 7 to 10 times which are great for positive progressions.

Also player from hand 35 on, if it wasn't a natural for the player that won, the third card for the player brought the player up to a 7, 8 or9 just about every single time. And numerous tines in there, I would say at least five of them, was a Natural 9 Player over Banker Natural 8.
#440
Same dealer that gave us 3 Fortune 7s and 12 Bankers the other night, sat down and relieved dealer that started the shoe and he says, 'are you ready for at least 7 Banks with 3 Fortune 7s?'  And everyone said, SURE. Most of the people didn't believe it but he sure banged out almost what he said, he gave us 2 Fortune 7s with the 6 Bankers. I'll comment on it later,  need some sleep.

[attachimg=1]

[attachimg=2]

By the way, the shoe finished with making another single Banker followed by 6 Players followed by 6 Bankers and that finished the shoe.
#441
Here is part of the question from a valued forum member:

B) Where do you anticipate B runs? within a typical shoe? IOW what catches your eye to start anticipating a B run so that u are on it earlier? Not necessarily huge streaks but im speaking of >=4 streaks.

C)re:transition points or sections ending and a new section beginning. I think I understand your teachings re: this occurs at approx ever 18-21 hands and agree with this increment. However, Im not real clear on how to determine the next section(or trend) has indeed started. Therefore , as I think u will agree, a huge difference if we can anticipate and possibly get on a 7ish streak of something at say spot 2 or 3 vs spot 4,...etc.

Please elaborate anywhere u can as I always value  your opinions.
e.g., What is your hierarchy when u have several hypotheses activated at same decision point(i.e., Pattern should continue based on current profile, however, that side also has a Panda 8 or 3c7,...etc and would suggest the opp side is preferable...etc)?? IOW what is your hierarchy of triggers 'generally" speaking such as A trumps B trumps C,,.etc.??

Okay, I will attempt some answers:

Baccarat shoes are all weak or a combination of weak and strong.  Seldom and extremely rare they would be strong for the whole shoe and sitting down when we did we ruled out that because it was not.  We all have different an defensive definitions of what weak and strong is in baccarat. I've talked about this many times in my writings on the Forum.

If you play chops you will lose on twos. If you play twos you will lose on chops. If you play 3s you will lose if it fails to make a 3rd, etc., etc. Ones, twos and threes all grouped closely together are extremely hard to capitalize on if you believe in anything else in baccarat and so on.

This particular shoe we sat down in Section B right at the end of the three doubles on hand 34, when It produced a Natural 9 Player over a Natural 8 Banker. We did note there were no F7s out as well.

We started wagering for a continuation of doubles. We lost as a natural came out  for Banker with the chop to hand 35. We did wager for a player on hand 36 and continued on hand 37. Then we switched to banker and also wagered for an F7 on hand 38 and it was beautiful. Player had a 9 and a 5 and Banker had a 6.  Player flops a 6 and Banker flops an Ace.  Banker F7, first one.

We figured a double was going to appear but we had the strong belief and we have observed and know from years of playing the highest majority of the times it does cut to the player right after the F7 appears. It did not. Then a 3rd Banker came out. We actually wagered for a player on that hand. Then we switched back to Banker for a 4th Banker win, but not with the belief what was going to happen happened.

Once it made the 4th Banker we were totally convinced it was going to run down and match the 5 players with two ties in the beginning of the shoe. Everyone else at the table wagered heavy on the player side. Then the 6th and 7th Banker came out. Then another F7 Banker on the 8th Banker hand and then a natural followed for the 9th Banker.  Then there was another F7 on the 10th Banker hand and then two more naturals on the 11th and 12th Banker wins.

We rode it and we used positive progression on the 5th and 6th Banker wins and then just pulled down the winnings on the rest of them and we lost the last one of course. All the while the entire table was wagering heavy on the players to appear and commenting how the players side has to come back and all kinds of other comments attempting to change the shoe. I've said it countless times before, capitalize on what is happening and do not attempt to change the shoe or include some type of mechanical scheduled wagering triggers to wager on.

Most of the non natural Banker win hands were three card eights and nines versus the players two card 6 or 7. Yes if you looked at the point value of the cards most of the time the players first two cards would have won and only a very limited amount of cards being flopped for the 3rd Banker card could have beaten the player which was the case here.

At the end of the Banker run it was Banker 27 vs Players 18. We actually did think the Player was going to catch up and equal out, but we were not really betting that way heavy. Most people were. Player made the next straight 4 with three Naturals with 2 of them being natural 9s over Banker natural 8s.

We wagered two times for Bankers on the first two players right after the banker run and then we switched to the players side. We won the third and fourth player wagers, so we lost one. The frustration started to set in as we did wager for the fifth player and then a natural for the banker came out.

We recognized quickly and regrouped, we decided to wager every hand until the end of the shoe for Banker. So there were 22 hands left and we won 11 plus another F7 on the banker side and we lost eight on the players side. Normally we would have just stopped after the 12 Banker run but we decided not too because we just sat down.

As far as your question about banker runs and what we look for, in this particular case I would say it was that 4th Banker win and there was only the 5 player and 2 tie mini run in the beginning of the shoe. As well there was a good-sized stretch of 1s and 2s with a couple of 3s. This is coupled with another fact that I've said many times on 0-1-2-3 ties after many hands are out and with a low amount of ties how the shoe holds and continues presenting what it has been presenting. This is pertaining to mini groups and clusters within each section as you will see is exactly what it did.  All of those things convinced us both to wager on the banker run continuing past that fourth one and stick with it. Heck all we would have lost was one wager if that did fizzle out because we would not have chased it and stayed on the bank for the bank to come back. But everyone else did on the player and stuck with the player almost no matter what.

The first section line was drawn just before the 3 bankers because it changed from the four chops. Plus it was a third Banker and it was the first time a third bank was made. The second section line was drawn just before the bank run at the time it made the 4th Banker.


[attachimg=2]

If we were going to do a Section D at the casino we would have put it after 4 players and the 3 bankers after the 12 Bank Run, as I show you below but we did not do it that way.  I'm doing it here just for an example. And the reasoning would have been because it was fizzling out and going back to 1s, 2s and 3s rather than anything strong and you have to concentrate within a Section as it's happening and sometimes break down a section further into a mini Section or Clump and therefore playing what is being presented rather than attempting to change the shoe to what you want. Psychologically it helps.

[attachimg=3]

Locations of Banker F7s

[attachimg=4]
#442
Alrelax's Blog / Perfect Music
April 17, 2021, 02:37:21 PM
Yeah, its old school but it is perfect music especially when played at the casinos:

Number 1 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70

Tied For Number 1 Also

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg

Also Tied For Number 1

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9EcjWd-O4jI
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuJAiZsM7QM

Number 2 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4B_UYYPb-Gk

Number 3 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a54R9zE_hJk

Number 4 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B1HSvXanqIM

Number 5 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IeDMnyQzS88

Number 6 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PBJRD1VkxmI

Number 7 of all time!
Please listen yo the intro because it is so spot on of music
Close your eyes and listen to this

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pzozUw1TlDw

Number 8 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J5ebkj9x5Ko

Number 9 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo

Number 10 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BHcYFxU4fMo

Number 11 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=egMWlD3fLJ8

Number 12 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pA7V68w5hiA

Number 13 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6THjwqWJWO4

Number 14 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Js1BIvluSks

Number 15 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xBQsQoGodPY

Number 16 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=USh-cvBCLcw

Number 17 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5cDLZqe735k

Number 18 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXmjhRkPVFc

Number 19 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dsiFGp9LTA0
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=si8Zl3yO4-w

Number 20 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UF0lrzsnqLw

Number 21 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DGuViX8X0aE

Number 22 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=udkRI514KSI

Number 23 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UG3VcCAlUgE

Number 24 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vd91WRD3-Rc

Number 25 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TMiAQPABgHA&t=75s

Number 26 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UAKCR7kQMTQ

Number 27 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V43fGInXiLE

Number 28 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mCG5ODy6YHY

Number 29 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wdcLe0yPxhM

Number 30 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w019MzRosmk

Number 31 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CyVuYAHiZb8

Number 32 ofall all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7dGdrP3pms

Number 33 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nIFxuzOBL7M

Number 34 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic02W1bWeFU

Number 35 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe0zekec8OI

Number 36 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wPlV2dzXWCw

Number 37 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d24XpO-Cn7E

Number 38 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=17lkdqoLt44

Number 39 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OeQ7huY9mEE
#443
As always wish all of my people luck and longevity in the best of everything. Just remember wins are positive and losses are negative, don't chase and attempt progression from the wins only.

Hope great luck for you!!!
#444
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 22, 2021, 01:14:12 AM
To be clear, I do not concentrate solely on side Wagers but I do like them for certain percentage of my wagers. And when they're hitting, they are hitting and there's no quicker faster way to make some serious money than the side wagers at anywhere up to 200 to 1.
#445
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 21, 2021, 05:27:35 PM
Anything can happen and everything will eventually happen.  There is not a schedule of events that can be guaranteed in anyway whatsoever, contrary to what every mathematical wiz will claim.

The streak of 11 Bankers with 3 Fortune 7s + three 3 card nines over player side of 0's, that occurred after  presentments of 15 singles and doubles; could easily have been a 10 Player streak with four Panda 8s and four 3 card nines over bankers side of 0's after 9 presentments of triple Bankers and triple Prayers as well. Or, how a series of 16 Players and Bankers chop chops will happen after a strong section or equally after ones, twos and threes that were presented in a section.

What I am trying to point out to those that still debate what actually happens will happen, verses it all has to have a schedule able to be figured out.  It does not and nobody will make money at the game Baccarat if you sit down trying to figure out what's going to happen, rather than creating a special way that suits your frame of mind and your emotional status to use a progressive wagering bet, that is in your favor when a certain series of presentments are happening within a section of the shoe.
#446
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
March 15, 2021, 05:52:50 AM
Reference Points, Flow, 3rd Card, Etc., resulting in streaks.

More so in the first half of the shoe then the second half. And more so with the player side than the banker side. But don't take that for players side only, because it will happen to the banker side as well, just more-so with the player side.

Particularly the prelude will be extremely choppy or very much equal for a pretty large section. And then it will generally start out say that the player will have seven and the bank will have six or the player will have a natural or two and the banker lose by one maybe two points each time. Or it could be close, where say the player had 6 and the bank had 5 and pulled the face card or the player had 6 or 7 and the bank had 1 and pulled a 4 or a 5.  And say it was making doubles or ones and twos. And then the player made a third hand which just literally should have lost and just squashed the bank, possibly say the player having a 1 and the bank had a 7 and the player pulled a 7 or 8 for its third card. And then the next hand on the player had zero on the first two cards and the banker had zero also.  Players side pulls a 9 for its third card and the banker side pulls a face card for its third card.  Then every hand after that for another 7, 8 or 9 is either a natural for the player or a very low-scoring first two cards and the bank had a decent hand with its first two cards and the player side surpassed it every time with unbelievable draws or even reducing the banker when the banker should have won the majority of times.  With several of those draws where the bank could only lose by drawing 1 certain card, everything else wins or ties, etc.  Like where the player had a 1 and the bank had a 2 and the player pulls a face card and the banker pulls an 8. 

Happens so many times and yet even the experienced baccarat player seldom sides with this one when it is happening and only says, he can't believe it and the other side has to come on and this will not continue.

#447
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
March 13, 2021, 05:35:38 PM
Learn

What luck is vs. what your skill is.

Anyone can win
Anyone can lose

The control is what each of us truly believes they have but really and rarely possesses.  Learn true and conscious control.  Super important and extremely difficult!

Take that a step further, if you actually possess control or when you are able to learn it, you must be totally conscious of it. And that means being able to turn it on and off in order to give you an advantage when the presentments are right to make wagers or stay out.

You must learn to respond to what is actually factual and happening. And not to what you think or is in your beliefs about what might happen because then you are indulging in fallacy and not the immediate presentment of what is going to be factual from the shoe.
#448
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
March 12, 2021, 04:41:13 PM
Most Important to be Learned & in Learning:

Discard Fallacy
Discard 'Talk'
DIscard Getting Rich
Realize what winning and losing sessions are
Establish 'Risk Capital' vs. a 'Irreplaceable One-Time Bankroll'

Concentration-Learning-Accuracy-Focus and Memory.  The 5 Points that need to be merged together in your decision-making.

Realize Fact
Stop Greed
Learn Patience
Learn and Abide by your true Level and Plateau of Wagering

Learn to wait comfortably between sessions

Being in complete control

Exiting Points must be learned and established with concrete rules which will reflect your ability in immediate switching of your frame of mind.
#449
Wagering & Intricacies / Learn to Learn
March 12, 2021, 03:09:13 PM
Learn How to Learn

Do not ignore the game to its true principles. And that is exactly what almost all players do because of their frame of mind. Ignore the past as it is truly relevant. When the fire erupts most all players will just pour more fuel on to it. And the single most important part of baccarat is learning the true principles of the game and how it affects the present hand as well as yourself.

Another very important item in the game of baccarat is your frame of mind and how you view the past the present and the future and applying it to the game. Be real careful and understand what you were getting into when you believe your own Visions as the highest and greatest amount of the time do not affect the outcome of the present.

Because people allow the past, whether the immediate past or earlier in the shoe or previous shoes or even yesterday or days before come into play. I'm telling you ignore the past, it is totally irrelevant. Do not fight the present, which if you do, you will squash most all of your chances to win the larger sums of money because you're stuck in the past. The past does not matter, as only the present does in each and every hand that's being presented in the game of Baccarat.

The present is also the continuance of the shoe and directly related to your intentions. Your intentions are to win and you cannot win in the past you can't win in the future. You only win in the present time with the present hand. When the present hand is the next hand, it is then the present hand. True the next hand turns into the future but you're not wagering on the future until you pass the present hand, you have to understand that.

So how do we learn how to learn?
#450
Quote from: KungFuBac on March 08, 2021, 05:18:02 PM
Thx Albalaha

I appreciate your replies. I did indeed notice a couple years back(2-3 maybe) you seemed to have hit a higher gear.
I continue to find gold nuggets in your essays (in your recent/as  well as older posts) as all your time/research is much appreciated.


My great grancester Confucius once say: " Do not seek all the answers at once, for a path is formed with first stone."


All the best,

Perfect.  Nice comments.

When one is conscious of his path he can add a lot of positive and great things to it.