Ref the first wins, wins with least risks, winning first wagers, etc, etc.

You guys are correct and I know I have written about it extensively. 

Here is a piece I wrote previously:

"What I do see, more in the Midwest than elsewhere on a consistent nature is the 'playing for the cut'.  Never changes.  Last night there was a couple shoes in a row at a $25.00 to $3,000.00 Macau/Midi table.  For Example, strong first half and stronger second half--4 solid runs of both bankers and players.  2 runs of 10 and 12 Bankers and 2 runs of 7 and 8 Players.  Followed by solid 2's and 3's of each between the runs.  A strong shoe, no doubt, no arguing. Put a bunch of the old school players at that same shoe and guaranteed the dealer's chip rack would have been minus all the lavender and orange, all of it.

Lots of money flowing into the table, everyone losing.  Like HunchBacShrimp pointed out, every repeating banker or player, the people are wagering for the 'cut'.  And to boot, which I believe from the past years of play, when the shoe is strong--it is strong, no changing it.  When it is weak, it is weak.  (A weak shoe is the time to wager heavily on the cut, again-IMO and opinions of many old school players)  Sorry the game does not change.  The game is and was always the same.

What I mean by 'strong' is say on the repeating banks, the player shows 8 and the banker returns a 9.  The player returns a 7 and the Banker returns 5 and pulls a 3 or 4.  Every hand the players has a fairly high value hand but gets beat and then the same on the player repeats, etc.   Repeatedly, not once or twice or three times out of 20 but like 16 to 18 times.  That is a classic 'strong' shoe.

The way I learned to play was to go with the shoe.  No matter what it was doing, weak, strong-whatever.  Yes and a capital YES!  The shoe can change the opposite way at anytime."

Ref the last sentence, meaning you are wagering for what you want the shoe to do, not for what the shoe is actually presenting.  And one wins by wagering on what the shoe will present,   Once you understand that, your pathway to profits will be easier. 

'The Music has Stopped' : Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall


From today's NY Times:


'The Music Has Stopped': Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall
Crypto companies are laying off staff, freezing withdrawals and trying to stem losses, raising questions about the health of the ecosystem.


Over the last two years, as the prices of Bitcoin and other virtual currencies surged, crypto start-ups proliferated. Companies that market digital coins to investors flooded the airwaves with TV commercials, newfangled lending operations offered sky-high interest rates on crypto deposits and exchanges like Coinbase that allow investors to trade digital assets went on hiring sprees.

A global industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars rose up practically overnight. Now it is crashing down.

After weeks of plummeting cryptocurrency prices, Coinbase said on Tuesday that it was cutting 18 percent of its employees, after layoffs at other crypto companies like Gemini, BlockFi and Crypto.com. High-profile start-ups like Terraform Labs have imploded, wiping away years of investments. On Sunday, an experimental crypto bank, Celsius, abruptly halted withdrawals.

'The Music Has Stopped': Crypto Firms Quake as Prices Fall https://nyti.ms/3mKYUcr

Quote from: KungFuBac on June 08, 2022, 05:30:54 PM
Hi all,

ABG in his reply above:
"...Hence, for example, it's way more probable to get a shoe showing up to four or five 3+ streaks (-5.5 and -4.5) than a shoe forming the same symmetrical fourteen or fifteen  3+ streaks counterpart (+4.5 and +5.5)...."

     that's a good example and perfect way to illustrate the limiting profile of Bac for this and other similar-length patterns.

*Of course as we all will agree most shoes could still have that one long same-bet  or same-pattern repeating streak and many players will latch on to that in their minds eye and let that /only that dominate their decision making(especially if in front of shoe and a same-side streak).

Side Bar:
I find it interesting when a long same-side streak presents in the first couple of columns and all of a sudden other players from nearby shoes come running over salivating for that streak "just one more time" . Though if the same length streak of say tres presents: pppbbbppp, not as much hoopla.  If the same-side streak is really long such as 10-11 in a row even other players from other games will often come by, gawk, and point,  and make statements like: "I would have made about $400K" or "I would own the casino IF i had been here",...etc. Oh well, at least they are optimistic.


Continued Success,

Can just as easy profit very large with a strong 'chop chop' or doubles or triples and so on.  A streak of anything, does not have to be a banker or player run. 

Drawdown.  What is it? It is technically the amount of money you lose before you start drawing a profit from your Buy-in.

First.  When does it occur? It can be in the very beginning of your session or can equally be at the ending, when you are on your last few wagers before exhausting your Buy-in. (Remember buy-ins need to always be a slight percentage of your bank-roll)

Second.  IMO it should be calculated and viewed with only the amount in front of you. Not collectively from prior sessions or any kind of running tallies/totals etc.

Third.  Again, IMO the drawdown must not be viewed and compared to previous drawdowns. The presentments are different and there is no reason to compare, it will only give you false senses of confidence or worse, make you scared bettor. You have to remember, drawdowns fluctuate and will always fluctuate, no rhyme no reason to define and learn how drawdowns may appear or not. They are a fact of gambling and you need to accept  that and deal with it.

Fourth.  Emotions, pressure and other feelings will be triggered within yourself that cannot be avoided during drawdowns. The larger the drawdown the greater and more intense those inner feelings will be. So be aware and try to curtail emotions, pressure and negatively. Be ultra conscious of that, stop getting sucked in.

Fifth.  Don't confuse drawdown with stop-loss. Many fail to see the difference, but there really is. Drawdown is an undetermined, unplanned amount of money that will be lost before you realize a profit that is within your horizon of "winning the session and it is time for me to stop", thought and belief.  Just remember, you must be comfortable with some or most of and occasionally, ALL of your buy in being lost and classified as a necessary 'expense'  that goes right along with gambling. 

A little extra.  Just remember, it might not always be smooth sailing, no losses and repetitive winning. Just be ready for the worst with the proper frame of mind, proper buy in and knowledge of employing a proper money management method that actually works in your favor.

You can make it as painless and non-destructive as possible.

* Believe winners do lose
* Be smart
* Be totally conscious without getting sucked in as almost all do
* Stay in reality
* Realize what the game is
* Understand the highest majority of times a drawdown will take place,
       perhaps more than once

And, how and when you win is for the most part up to you. Likewise, how and when you lose, is for the most part, also up to you.

[quote author=AsymBacGuy link=topic=10695.msg70202#msg70202 date=1654653375


Thinking in the same way we all bac players would be millionaire winners.

as.



You care to know why there will never be countless millionaire winners at baccarat?

Because, the majority and I mean the highest of the highest majority, wager/play too long when they do win and fail to wager sizable amounts, giving back all or most of their winnings and eventually their buy ins.  And, when they lose they continue with the fiercest vengeance to continue buying in until their entire bankroll is depleted.

Both scenarios are redundantly committed, time after time after time after time after time after time after time after time. 

To myself and the others I regularly play with, a weak section/shoe is a combination of hands that cannot be followed. 

A strong section/shoe I are hands that can be followed.

The total amount of each type of hands, do not have to result in streak type of incidents. 

Section by section you can clearly see if it is weak or strong. 

They do not happen 'all the time'.  Correct.

But they do happen.  Same as with a series of 13-17 continuous chops, or a series of 8-12 doubles, etc.  Or a section with players or bankers where there are 5-7 winning hands of say player, then a chop or two or three and 7 or so more players.  Then a few chops or doubles then the same thing with bankers as what came out with the players.  Whereas you only lose your last wager after making 5-8 winning bets.  In the groove with following a strong section or a strong shoe.   

It does happen. 

And by the way, when I say 'strong' that means what you see in the bankers streak above, or a good section of chop chops, doubles or triples.  Also a good solid section with 1s-2s-3s-3s-2s-1s, etc.  Weak is a couple chops, a 3 iar, a chop, a double or two and a mini steak of say 6.  Meaning whatever you are following does not appear or appears once or twice out of 6 or 7 wagers.

People will argue, but you can't win with a weak shoe, unless you are wagering blindly a very small amount of hands, as well as wagering large on those trivial amount of bets. 

So many live for these types of shoes, then when they do appear just about the entire table is in real-life denial and wagering for the opposite side to match or just a continuous wagering for the so called, cut.  By the way, the last three natural bankers in the second run back to back, were all natural 9s over players natural 8s.  Which fueled the furious wagering on players. 

[attachimg=1]

You wrote, " IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion."

Exactly correct.  Times it will help us and yet, at times it can hurt us.  Can a whole shoe be very strong?  Sure.  Can a whole shoe be extremely weak?  Sure.  But usually, as a norm it will be a mixture of both. 

Mind-sets are helpful and as well, dangerous. 

As you wrote, "More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations."

Players confuse themselves terribly with chasing 'incidents'.  Defining them cause the highest majority to chase, wait, continue wagering, etc., and IMO it is dangerous.  The incidents will always come and go quickly. 

Problem is, if you win on defining an incident almost always you will give back and lose additional funds in front of yourself by wagering for it again and again.  Why?  Because you have just convinced yourself of a definable opportunity. 

Players will find all kinds of incidents and there are many many so called incidents coming out of the shoe.  Not just long streaks.

But yes, many times after long streaks there are sections of chops, but my experiences of chops can be two cards each side, or five cards, as well as six card total hands. 

It was banker, player and ties only.

There were always the paper scorecards and pens available. 

Camaraderie was huge.  Most players grouped up together the majority of the times. Best I can define it overall was strong and weak were large deciding factors in wagering.  Players held the shoe and dealt the cards, you held the shoe as long as you made a banker hand, no matter what side you wagered on.  Once a player hand was made, the shoe traveled to your right, next player seated. 

Dealers could not get tapped out until a player hand was made as well.  A rack fill could not be engaged in as well until a player hand was made. 

On any streak, on any chop chop, the house lost large amounts of money.  Almost all big bac tables were $100 min.  Mini bac was out in the main floors, usually $25 min. But dealer dealt the cards and flipped them always.

In addition, after a lengthy discussion with two bac players the other night, I add the following comments.  Yes, they probably  have all been said at one time or another, but they are factual and prevalent to a positive game if used with a clear mind.

* Excuses not to wager something are always there for the player to cite and believe in;

* Why do you need a pattern/trend that is redundant, consistent or reappearing before wager on it, etc., etc.?;

* Why not wager on the hands while they are appearing and accept it as a Random-Trend/Pattern?  Seriously does winning thousands of dollars off a pattern that no one believes in and is 100% happening, hand after hand, spend any different from wins that come much harder in nature?;

* Why do you have to be 'ahead' of the shoe in predicting the cuts and changes or even the beginning of a redundant pattern, rather than just following the shoe presentments for select sections?

* We hear all the time, "it has to stop/cut", "it has to run", "such and such a card came out so that means ........", etc.  Well, figuring it all out is exactly why the casinos put those electronic score boards there, LOL.  You want to know something, years ago prior to 2000 or so, the casinos had no score boards and they had larger 14 player/3 dealer tables where the players would actually deal the cards.  But the casinos repeatedly got hurt so they changed the way the game was played, dealt and wagered on. 

KungFuBac,

#A1, has the answer to your previous "How do you deal with 3 or 4 iar" losses, etc. 

" But all in all, the baccarat player must risk a certain buy-in.  If it happens, it happens.  If he does not win with that buy-in, it generally will not happen even with continued buy-ins."

Please read it, as I believe this is one of the best and most detailed informative posts I ever made. (?)

What the common mistaken belief is, that the order of the winning hands and the trends or patterns can be changed to suit the bettor. 

Reality is, when it is strong for one side, it remains strong.  When it is weak for either or both sides, it remains weak.  Nothing can change anything from happening. 

>>>>>"a state of balance between opposing forces or actions" will always be there, the only question is when does it dominate and form perfect or near perfect patterns.

Problem for almost all bettors is, their belief that they should follow their experiences as well as what the shoe has previously proven or not proven.  I know that is a catch all statement, but and seriously BUT, the equilibrium usually prevails the highest majority of the times when it approaches - or + 10 and once again right at the - or + 20 mark, especially around the middle of the shoe. 

The first part of the previous paragraph means, although it might seem beneficial it probably is contradictory to the shoe being played out.

There are numerous factors that must be taken into consideration when wagering for the 'equaling' out.

You are exactly right! 

I also heard the same thing on a tv show about the financials regarding that.