Understand the following comes into play for the forming of what actually will happen and be the result of your wagering at the tables:

VISION.  Your dreams, you're thinking outside the casino, your thoughts and everything else relating to the game financial related;

EXPECTATION & REALITY.  What you interpret and believe through your study, research, online forums, talking with other players, your actual experiences and knowledge all merged together (As well, I wrote a previous article on the subject);

APPLICATION & REALIZATION.  The continuance of 'Expectation & Reality' into the application phase will govern your thought process and your mindset at the time of play. Be honest with yourself and realize it, the hurt inflicted upon your wagering as well as the good.

Here is one way to visualize more about what I am saying.  Stretch out your right arm, all the way out into the side of your body.  Now stretch out your left arm, all the way out also and to the left of your body. Your right arm contains your 'Vision' your 'Expectation' and your 'Application'. Your left arm contains the 'Realities' and the 'Realizations' that will set in automatically when you play baccarat.

Now move your arms towards each other and interface your fingers together. Grab the other hand tightly and squeeze together, keep squeezing. Do that for 15 seconds or so. That is the merge of the factors together. Each time you do that you will have a slightly different grasp-length-style-firmness-comfort level-motion and feeling, etc. Same as when you play baccarat. You control it but you really do not in many ways.

Remember that, change the way you think and be totally conscious at the table. 

False Positives & Their Dangers to the Player and Chance.  Fueling Your Losses With Reason.

When wagering on baccarat and you fail to think, think clear, think absolutely clear, think with neutralism, think with purpose, think with the greatest concentration, we will get reinforced with the wrong way to play baccarat.  It happens quick, really quick?so be warned and be conscious of that all of the time.  It is not easy, but you do not want the false positives in your game.  And that is exactly what you will get if you cannot define and be absolutely diligent about your thinking.

There are numerous false positives offering themselves continually within the game of baccarat.  Very dangerous, extremely dangerous to the gullible, inexperienced and player that easily gets sidetracked or is dependent upon something he needs to find to at least think, is tangible to wager because of.  Also, most all players after a while will begin some kind of research into the game.  This takes on several different kinds of research areas.

1)   History of the Game. Different message boards and forums about baccarat and table games.  General and older written articles from various sources.  Media articles about the infamous, the famous, the legendary, etc., gamblers with their large losses and large wins.

2)   Mathematical & Statistical. Message boards, forums, websites and other published material online relating to the same.  The written books one happens to purchase, borrow or locate somewhere.  The attempted application and comparison of these to the game itself as played by the person.

3)   Probability, Chance & Other Things.  And other things of a similar Se-Scheduled nature and their counterparts including other areas of interest to those also.  The same as #2 above.  Once again, the attempted application of those will only lead you to False-Positives, that far outweigh any type of consistent wagering that will award you winning set-scheduled wagering greater than 50% of any time you play. 

4)   Superstition & Methodology. And other things of a similar nature that you convince yourself will allow you to win wagers because of phenomenon, certain events or any other type of presentment capitalization of luck or predication with the danger of conversion within your brain that allows to justify changing just what those were to skill.  Very very dangerous.

5)  Convincing Yourself of Something Guaranteed.   No matter what it is.  Flat betting, wagering after such and such happens or did not happen.  A strict adherence to O.L.D. or W.L.D. or anyone of the other 10-20 rock-solid good wagers to follows as written about, posted and dwelled over anywhere on the internet message boards, forums, websites, paid sites, etc.  Along with the many other gamblers fallacies of Cuts, Trends, Triggers, Patterns, Clusters, Clumps, etc.  Or, just Hog-Wild, I am on a hot run and nothing can or will stop me and ultimately and with great consistent repetitiveness, give it back each and every single session, because you do not believe there are plateaus and levels that control you and what you have the ability to guide yourself through while wagering at the game of baccarat. 

The belief in any or all the above will always provide false positives that will not benefit the player in actual play of any serious kind or more importantly in any serious consistency whatsoever.  What is even worse, is the few positive wins produced by following on any of those things will produce greater and greater influential false-positives because of the great quest for finding the unknown and secretive holy-grail, etc. 
 
Here, let me sum it up---at least on a mathematical and my statistical aspect converted to gambling.  Two paragraphs worth, with a sample visual curve, will save you from getting sucked in a dead-end path that will cause you complete bank roll failure.  If you will take my advice.  But hey---it is your money.   

1)   (First Paragraph).  The reason it will lead to failure, is because baccarat can and will do completely different presentments with no rhyme or reason, both mathematically and statistically, as well as complete randomness with no regards to scheduling and order correlating to events within the shoe you are sitting in front of;

2) (Second Paragraph).  Unlike elaborating, which Abraham de Moivre, Doctrine of Chances founded; The same arguments which explode the Nation of Luck may, on the other side, be useful in some cases to establish a due comparison between chances and design.  We may imagine chance and design to be as it were in competition with each other to produce some sorts of events, and may calculate what probability there is, that those events should be rather owing to one then to the other.

One trial and then scale up, putting an (X) where we expect to find our answer and takes the most general form of the problem; If something can happen with probability (A), or can not happen probably (B), in each of the (X) trials, then we can say, putting the power law in to general terms, that the chance of it not happening in every trial or even a cluster or a clump is; The number of trials where the chance will not happen and everything else is deduced down from that.

Because the possibilities of defining when presentments will appear anywhere from 1-80 hands will show up in the exact order and time you have scheduled your wager repeatedly for several wagers; Out of quadrillions of possibilities, it is impossible to do with definitive and concrete adherence by the shoe.  By the way, quadrillions is greater than 999 trillion times.

Unlike the ability to measure a curve to see what fraction of an area between start and midpoint and points in-between will become finite in their outcomes, the baccarat shoe cannot be measured in the same way or any other way that will allow you with finite guaranteed wins. 

And with great insight....." The baccarat invulnerability relies upon the fact that it's impossible to 'restrict' the variance terms of the results, meaning that anything could happen anytime and anywhere.  In statistical terms this means that the 'improbable', even though being carefully calculated, will surely happen providing to get a fair amount of trials.

So after an 'infinite' amount of shoes we'll surely face an all B or P hand shoe or a whole BP chopping shoe or, well more likely, a whole 'streaky' shoe without any single showing up. (Btw, we have crossed through this last situation more than once)."

And so many will never realize what you said in the above. 

How does one win?  Well, you have to realize what is being presented as well as that the improbable just might be sheer reality.  But when that reality appears, normally you will just here, "WOW can't believe that" or "I've never seen that before" etc.

Quote from: ChopChop on May 29, 2019, 03:30:33 AM
Hell of a trip report, that was an awesome read!  A good percentage of the time you go play baccarat, its going to be a losing session.  Even the few that are up lifetime will lose close to half of there sessions statistically speaking.

Which got me to thinking about your style of play.  Yes you can lose your buyin just like anyone else, but your pounce on it mentality you describe allows you to really hit some big ones once in awhile. And a loss is a loss, doesn't matter if its death by a thousand cuts or 8 or 9 shots.  Why not give yourself an opportunity to maximize your profits if you actually do end up on the positive side in a session.

You are entirely correct!  1,000,000 %.

Bumped for Asym, this is simply a great bac side bet table.  One of the best.

I seldom play roulette but at this one B&M casino I pass by their two roulette tables to get to the Bac room.

I look all the time.  Last night I saw 2 Back to back 29s and 27, 30 and 32 hit right after the 29s.  Then I saw 20 hit followed by 18 and 23.

When I looked at the board I saw at least 4 times, numbers were hit that were connected to each other with at least 2 to 4 hits each fir each group.

Welcome back, we are still here!

I scanned a few forums this morning.  LOL!  Love the dedication to so called testing.  But where in the hell does playing a shoe or two or three at a casino produce the same or nearly the same results as the tested average of 1,000 or 20,000 or 1,000,000 shoes?

Love the circle of drama driven people on each forum that live to chastise, humiliate and degrade others.

Love those members on certain forums that report their wins with zero proof, zero evidence, zero anything in fact except something along the lines of, 'the only way to win is to wager banker after such and such happens', etc.

And all the other repetitive standardized answers that they believe portrays themselves as discovering and actually possessing the Holy Grail and can apply it at will, anywhere anytime. 

Lots more, but the nonsense outweighs all else.

I did catch something with almost no response against it or for it though.  Which was; 'Many people claim they win all the time, if that is true they have the actual Holy Grail.  They should write a book, publish the proven system, and a host of other similar things that would generate tens of millions of dollars for themselves.  They should also play in casinos at baccarat tables which have never banned players for solely winning regardless of what has been claimed.  But they come on message boards to write nonsense and that is all.  There is not one single system, scheduled wagering plan, statistical betting format or anything of the likes that will consistently prevail.  And it will not, cannot, never did and never will.'

So very true! In fact, GREAT.

As I said within the original post I start this thread with still is super prevalent to this day, "And as always, one thing that has never really changed is, the responsibility is with the person who is seeking the results, stories, data and trying to get information on what is going on.  And that is going to hold down the successful use of the message boards for quite some time.  The other thing on the message boards that makes it so difficult, IMO, is the declassification of the members knowledge, experience, and ability.  Everyone is within one room like I said.  While that is fine for many, many really do not desire to teach gambling 101, every time they sign on to check for content, etc.  And those that are just coming on board, they have a ton of questions and little answers.  Fitting in is tough to do, in so many situations.  Couple that, with the bothersome 5 or 7 or 10 members almost all boards have, that are only present to stir the pot, cause trouble, show off, contribute nothing, challenge most everything with their expression of free speech, etc., and it brings down the overall good purpose and great melting pot that most of us really do desire."

I look at the amount of units in his wishful thinking of Marty, etc., for a loss.

Wagering a few hundred or $750.00 or say $1,500.00 a hand to start, he is talking astronomical amount of wagers that would be past all table maximums at B&M casinos.

Waste of time. 

Good Morning!  The following is a detailed event that came to light at the baccarat room the other night.

GETTING REAL

It stood out, basic skills, a bit of reserved advanced skills, math trying to be applied skills and a huge dose of viewing random presentments thinking and believing that they were all structured hands that could be entered and exited at certain times with nice profitable wagering.  Shake it all up with individual life skills, egos, bankrolls and most of all, that desperation to walk away a winner, is exactly the way I viewed the table of players. 

WHAT REAL ACTUALLY IS

Real-Life events that will overtake any structured thought of presentments that are 'due' to come out or appear at anytime whatsoever.  And the highest majority of all players, like in the 99% range plus, will swear up and down that they will adhere to before getting to the casino.  However, at the table it is almost always the total opposite.

WHY SO MANY?

I really do want to understand why so many of the people I witness, being ripped-from their buy ins, repeatedly return and return and return.  I do talk to most of them as I have played a long time with the highest majority of them.  Answers range from, I never win, to I win some times but I almost always give it back, to I always try for larger wins after winning something and my greed makes me think disastrous. 

Very seldom do I ever hear about their Money Management Methods and how they hold a percentage of what they win or how they only lose a buy in as risk capital from a previous portion of a win, that allows them to strictly play on the casino's money as their working capital.  But all I ever hear is what they have available to them through their set aside money taking from their jobs or other money sources. 

You know what I realized after serious thoughts about most everyone there playing?  Here is what I came up with.  They heighten their moments, putting aside the bad and surrounding themselves with the good, speculate into the desires of erasing all of their mistakes and losses, leaving them with an unattainable amount of money to come their way in the shoes they sit down to play. 

But I still wondered, why do they continue to play after so many many attempts and the massive destruction to their financial situation they caused themselves?  And the answer I came up with was,  because the highest majority of people, despite what seems realistic, prefer their results to be along the lines of what they actually know and are accustomed to, not necessarily what the reality is or will be. 

WHAT AND WHY IN THE FUTURE

It is not going to change for the 99% plus players because they will never realize what reality actually is.  All they will ever admit to or confess is, I can't believe that happened or I should have done such and such. 

The absolute fear of surprise is what gets most.  Surprise?  Yes, surprise.  IMO and experience, despite what people may say or agree to, really do prefer events that they know.  Why?  Because they really don't know it, haven't thought of it, are not accustomed to it and fear most of all*, the loss of their money in anyway they have not experienced-which is their own little grove that the highest percentage of the times, leads to their losses with their justification of those through the placement of blame*. 

(Blame.  Place blame on it they continually remember; With following anything such as chop-2s-3s-repeating and so on, listening to others, being told what to wager on, and the listening to others or reading about structured wagering on certain presentments, etc. etc.).

That is what came to me the other night in the baccarat room. 

......."distributed as a possible 'bias' is spread at different degrees along any shoe dealt.
Sometimes such bias is too weak to be exploited,  most of the times it will."

That is what you said in the above post. And that is so correct, it is so simple, the same as the alphabet starting with ABC and ending with XYZ.

And when the bias is strong, so many players get in the 'I can't believe it frame of mind' they sit there and wait it out or they wager heavily for the 'cut' that is another 8 or 10 or 15 hands away.   

The story goes on...

The most important thing is a totally open mind without ego.

Lack of experience is made up with a good dose of intensity and curiosity. But do not allow feelings to come into play.  They will hurt you, I promise.

There is no easy way out. Always remember that and always use that as a basis for thought when you are confused at the table wagering.

Do not rely on the obvious unless you check it, recheck it and check it countless times in fact. You will see how all those "wrongs", and those "wow how did that happen" and those "why didn't I bet for that' will repetitively appear.  You didn't bet for those because you had so many feelings that clouded your mind and your vision.  Simple, but your so egotistical you just can't see it.

The most important thing you have to learn is to know what you don't know. You have to realize you can better your knowledge, your mind of game, and set aside that overpowering ego, those hampering  desires and the growing wishes.

Even if you see someone doing something that you label as "wrong" you might really learn something about yourself that proves unique and quite profitable by finding out what they are doing. It just might be the "right" way after all and correct a whole bunch of your "wrongs".  At least a part of their logic and play mixed with yours, will allow you to discount and get rid of a portion of your "wrongs".  But remember, feelings are always there when you start looking at your own play.

Without suffering you will have no idea what joy and bliss actually are at the gaming table or elsewhere.

Engage In No Obstacles

Ego becomes an influence. When influenced at Baccarat most all players begin making the wrong decisions, which will become a huge liability to themselves.

Unfortunately without them realizing just that, they begin to lose. They compound their poor decisions with making additional poor decisions through the added pressure and stress, attempting to recover the lost wagers. This is the point most players get to rather quickly in the game.

Here are the five pro and cons about obstacles which I have defined over the years and it always works out through one form or another to be spot on with the below chart or darn close.

THE 2 SIDES TO JUST ABOUT EVERYONES PLAYING NO MATTER YOUR EXPERIENCE AND SKILL LEVEL.  SAY NOT ME AND YOU JUST HAVE NOT PLAYED ENOUGH YET.

PRO                                                    CON

1)  Clear Frame of Mind                    1)  Blurred Frame of Mind

2)  Intuitive                                         2)  Dicey

3)  Common Sense                            3)  Wishful Thinking

4)  Readability (Aware & Using)          4)  Desperately Wagering 

5)  Capitalizing on Good Sections      5)  Scared to Wager

Easier said than accomplished at the table. Seems like there are two sides, one the atmosphere/action and two, rationalization and reality of what I listed above. There is a way to use other people playing at the table for camaraderie and another way to be aloof and concentrate by yourself.

I have said this many times........

"deny 'normal' statistical deviations as any tie happened seems to 'erase' or lower any back to back expected probability."

Low ties 0-1-2-3 when there are plenty of hands out, tend to produce nice clumps of whatever.  Meaning, the presentations will basically follow something relatively easy to follow.  Higher amounts of ties say 5-6 and up, tend to produce much harder to follow presentations, etc.

Reality is the presentments of the shoe without any influences whatsoever. Not the shuffle, not to cut or the burn or anything else. Not a whole host of other things so many people believe influences the presentments and how the cards will be presented.  Oh and reality is going to prove an unknown amount of chops, streaks, ones and twos, doubles, triples and any and all other combinations of various trends without any rhyme or reason. Reality will also produce a completely different outcome for the following shoe or possibly extremely close to the same, no telling. Reality will also produce an extremely predictable section of presentments or perhaps a totally unpredictable section of events. That is a good example of reality at plays as well.

If you do not believe what I am saying here go to the casino with a set of mechanical scheduled triggers of any type and wager on that. Wagering on just those  while ignoring the entire surrounding of everything and anything. Wager and see what happens. Does not matter how many wagers your schedule is, whether it's three or six or nine or 18 or every hand. Play that and keep playing that. See how long and how much you profit week after week after week.

Please do it and honestly report on the results.