Good Morning!  The following is a detailed event that came to light at the baccarat room the other night.

GETTING REAL

It stood out, basic skills, a bit of reserved advanced skills, math trying to be applied skills and a huge dose of viewing random presentments thinking and believing that they were all structured hands that could be entered and exited at certain times with nice profitable wagering.  Shake it all up with individual life skills, egos, bankrolls and most of all, that desperation to walk away a winner, is exactly the way I viewed the table of players. 

WHAT REAL ACTUALLY IS

Real-Life events that will overtake any structured thought of presentments that are 'due' to come out or appear at anytime whatsoever.  And the highest majority of all players, like in the 99% range plus, will swear up and down that they will adhere to before getting to the casino.  However, at the table it is almost always the total opposite.

WHY SO MANY?

I really do want to understand why so many of the people I witness, being ripped-from their buy ins, repeatedly return and return and return.  I do talk to most of them as I have played a long time with the highest majority of them.  Answers range from, I never win, to I win some times but I almost always give it back, to I always try for larger wins after winning something and my greed makes me think disastrous. 

Very seldom do I ever hear about their Money Management Methods and how they hold a percentage of what they win or how they only lose a buy in as risk capital from a previous portion of a win, that allows them to strictly play on the casino's money as their working capital.  But all I ever hear is what they have available to them through their set aside money taking from their jobs or other money sources. 

You know what I realized after serious thoughts about most everyone there playing?  Here is what I came up with.  They heighten their moments, putting aside the bad and surrounding themselves with the good, speculate into the desires of erasing all of their mistakes and losses, leaving them with an unattainable amount of money to come their way in the shoes they sit down to play. 

But I still wondered, why do they continue to play after so many many attempts and the massive destruction to their financial situation they caused themselves?  And the answer I came up with was,  because the highest majority of people, despite what seems realistic, prefer their results to be along the lines of what they actually know and are accustomed to, not necessarily what the reality is or will be. 

WHAT AND WHY IN THE FUTURE

It is not going to change for the 99% plus players because they will never realize what reality actually is.  All they will ever admit to or confess is, I can't believe that happened or I should have done such and such. 

The absolute fear of surprise is what gets most.  Surprise?  Yes, surprise.  IMO and experience, despite what people may say or agree to, really do prefer events that they know.  Why?  Because they really don't know it, haven't thought of it, are not accustomed to it and fear most of all*, the loss of their money in anyway they have not experienced-which is their own little grove that the highest percentage of the times, leads to their losses with their justification of those through the placement of blame*. 

(Blame.  Place blame on it they continually remember; With following anything such as chop-2s-3s-repeating and so on, listening to others, being told what to wager on, and the listening to others or reading about structured wagering on certain presentments, etc. etc.).

That is what came to me the other night in the baccarat room. 

......."distributed as a possible 'bias' is spread at different degrees along any shoe dealt.
Sometimes such bias is too weak to be exploited,  most of the times it will."

That is what you said in the above post. And that is so correct, it is so simple, the same as the alphabet starting with ABC and ending with XYZ.

And when the bias is strong, so many players get in the 'I can't believe it frame of mind' they sit there and wait it out or they wager heavily for the 'cut' that is another 8 or 10 or 15 hands away.   

The story goes on...

The most important thing is a totally open mind without ego.

Lack of experience is made up with a good dose of intensity and curiosity. But do not allow feelings to come into play.  They will hurt you, I promise.

There is no easy way out. Always remember that and always use that as a basis for thought when you are confused at the table wagering.

Do not rely on the obvious unless you check it, recheck it and check it countless times in fact. You will see how all those "wrongs", and those "wow how did that happen" and those "why didn't I bet for that' will repetitively appear.  You didn't bet for those because you had so many feelings that clouded your mind and your vision.  Simple, but your so egotistical you just can't see it.

The most important thing you have to learn is to know what you don't know. You have to realize you can better your knowledge, your mind of game, and set aside that overpowering ego, those hampering  desires and the growing wishes.

Even if you see someone doing something that you label as "wrong" you might really learn something about yourself that proves unique and quite profitable by finding out what they are doing. It just might be the "right" way after all and correct a whole bunch of your "wrongs".  At least a part of their logic and play mixed with yours, will allow you to discount and get rid of a portion of your "wrongs".  But remember, feelings are always there when you start looking at your own play.

Without suffering you will have no idea what joy and bliss actually are at the gaming table or elsewhere.

Engage In No Obstacles

Ego becomes an influence. When influenced at Baccarat most all players begin making the wrong decisions, which will become a huge liability to themselves.

Unfortunately without them realizing just that, they begin to lose. They compound their poor decisions with making additional poor decisions through the added pressure and stress, attempting to recover the lost wagers. This is the point most players get to rather quickly in the game.

Here are the five pro and cons about obstacles which I have defined over the years and it always works out through one form or another to be spot on with the below chart or darn close.

THE 2 SIDES TO JUST ABOUT EVERYONES PLAYING NO MATTER YOUR EXPERIENCE AND SKILL LEVEL.  SAY NOT ME AND YOU JUST HAVE NOT PLAYED ENOUGH YET.

PRO                                                    CON

1)  Clear Frame of Mind                    1)  Blurred Frame of Mind

2)  Intuitive                                         2)  Dicey

3)  Common Sense                            3)  Wishful Thinking

4)  Readability (Aware & Using)          4)  Desperately Wagering 

5)  Capitalizing on Good Sections      5)  Scared to Wager

Easier said than accomplished at the table. Seems like there are two sides, one the atmosphere/action and two, rationalization and reality of what I listed above. There is a way to use other people playing at the table for camaraderie and another way to be aloof and concentrate by yourself.

I have said this many times........

"deny 'normal' statistical deviations as any tie happened seems to 'erase' or lower any back to back expected probability."

Low ties 0-1-2-3 when there are plenty of hands out, tend to produce nice clumps of whatever.  Meaning, the presentations will basically follow something relatively easy to follow.  Higher amounts of ties say 5-6 and up, tend to produce much harder to follow presentations, etc.

Reality is the presentments of the shoe without any influences whatsoever. Not the shuffle, not to cut or the burn or anything else. Not a whole host of other things so many people believe influences the presentments and how the cards will be presented.  Oh and reality is going to prove an unknown amount of chops, streaks, ones and twos, doubles, triples and any and all other combinations of various trends without any rhyme or reason. Reality will also produce a completely different outcome for the following shoe or possibly extremely close to the same, no telling. Reality will also produce an extremely predictable section of presentments or perhaps a totally unpredictable section of events. That is a good example of reality at plays as well.

If you do not believe what I am saying here go to the casino with a set of mechanical scheduled triggers of any type and wager on that. Wagering on just those  while ignoring the entire surrounding of everything and anything. Wager and see what happens. Does not matter how many wagers your schedule is, whether it's three or six or nine or 18 or every hand. Play that and keep playing that. See how long and how much you profit week after week after week.

Please do it and honestly report on the results.

What you said:

"In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long"..............

Is exactly spot-on.  However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

Groups=Sections? 

Great post and so true 8OR9.

Reference the following four statements from the above post, caused me to post the following I had within my section.

Those four statements were:

" For example, we could evaluate how many ascending, descending or same value steps will come out at the same position or back-to-back positions shoe per shoe. Will some numbers be more likely to appear after certain other numbers at the actual shoe?

Within a shoe could a 0 value comes out always isolated (if any) or it should show up clustered at some point of it?
What about other numbers?

Is a same source of outcomes (same deck shuffled) a real important feature to possibly exploit those codes?

Every baccarat player knows that things may stay univocal sometimes but even may change rapidly in a way or another, that's why imo we better concentrate at most our field of operations."


Let me make it clear and state it right away.  Practical Knowledge is superior to theoretical gambling knowledge and as well, Practical Knowledge is incredibly important to any career and life in general.  Whether gambling, a non-related gambling career as well as life in general, all three of them, cannot and will not excel in Theoretical Knowledge only. 

With that said.  When it comes to the knowledge we all possess, use, govern ourselves, base decisions on and everything else related to those, there are different kinds and different ways.  On one side there is the theory way and on the other side, there is the practical application of that same side of theory.  There are distinct sides to each one, don't become confused with the oversimplification of the way so many attempt to streamline theoretical and reduce it to scheduled and reoccurring events.  That is salesmanship and intelligence modification that many fall prey to and become convinced of fallacy, lies, twisted truths, manipulated wishes, etc. 

But there is a theoretical side to gambling and baccarat play that used in the correct context can certainly add ammunition and tool box knowledge to the holder.  Such as, 'why' things happen, 'how come' things happened, and countless techniques that could succeed or likewise, might very well fail.  But no theory and I stress, not a single one, can succeed over and over with continuous redundancy the way so many seek, attempt to sell or wish for.  That is the key to understand reality with this subject.

So what is theoretical knowledge good for?  IMO, it is good for building your context of all the subject involved within gambling as well as baccarat.  You should have the context in order to set you strategy or at least know, where and how to proceed within the game when you are involved in it.  You can use theory to accomplish that, learning from the experience, trails, efforts, writings of others mixed with your own interpretation of those into some kind of viable fuel that you can implement. 

If the theoretical end of it all leads you to a deeper and more thorough understanding as to the 'why' behind it all, then you are well on a great path to better success than the uninformed person would be. 

Now, the Practical Knowledge, is the tougher one.  The practical end of baccarat play has to come from the actual gambling itself.  There is no two ways about it.  You will gain the specific techniques that will become, for simplicity sake here, your tools of the trade.  Keep separate but conscious of, theory being the ideal end of it and/or the reasoning behind it all.  The practical end of it, being the outcome and the actual varying events without restriction or guidance to the theory end of it all.  Do not fall prey to the biggest common mistake by most gamblers, which is convincing yourself that the theory end of it has to happen in any certain order or timing.

Both are extremely important, but without each other, you won't survive.  Theory cannot always be present and theory might continually present itself in different and varying ways.  That is where your practical knowledge will take over and apply a more specific solution or decision to what you are faced with in the game of baccarat.  It is a game, it is not a puzzle to be solved, and there are not definitive solutions. 

You have to mix the theoretical side of it with the practical side of the same thing.  The goal you need to focus on, is getting both ends of the spectrum to meet the majority of the times.   

Prominent German pro Fedor Holz has called out two well-known high-staked Brazilian pros for colluding during the final table of a recent high-stakes tourney on 888poker. The two Brazilians, Rodrigo "seijistar1" Seiji and Rodrigo "serouan1991" Serouan, were among the final five players in an event on 888's global online site.

Holz posted on his "@crownupguy" Twitter account, early on Christmas Day, "A pretty obvious collusion spot including Seijistar on a big 1K FT vs his friend Selouan. They are part of a Brazilian HS group that work together called '9Tales'. Cheating sucks. I think every HS reg that doesn't cheat.

Holz replied to his own post, further clarifying the alleged cheat. "In case It isn't clear, AJ folds. They probably weren't aware it's live-streamed with cards up."

Holz said the two Brazilians are good friends, and he accused Seij of making the way-against-the-odds fold to allow Serouan to take the pot and stay in the event. That Holz's accusation also mentions that several Brazilians are involved in a high-stakes cheating team, known as "9Tales", adds urgency to the situation.

888 responds within hours, promises investigation

888 quickly responded to Holz's claims on Twitter, noting that an investigation will begin immediately. 888 promised a review not only of the hand in question, but of other action between the two Rodrigos.

Any type of collusion is in clear violation of our user agreement.
We are reviewing this hand and others played between these two players. We are contacting the players to better understand their POV. We will be in touch with the players and act upon our investigation results.

Neither Seiji nor Serouan appear to have been suspended as yet by 888Poker. Should the collusion allegations be proven out, Seiji appears to be in the worst situation regarding possible sanctions.

Another of the players at the table "Panxetillo", was quickly alerted to Holz's own thread and posted his own thoughts. "Hi I'm Panxetillo," he wrote. "That hand was very suspicious, I didn't know they worked together in 9tales, so it makes sense now. Thanks for expose this case, we have to kick out people who cheat and collusion for the sake of poker. I hope @888poker investigate this and take action. Cheers!"

Such collusion remains a problem that poker has found difficult to eradicate. A Brazilian poker outlet has reportedly received a quote from Seiji stating that he "misjudged the situation," believing Serouan had a much stronger hand due to ICM factors. However, that likely won't satisfactorily explain Seiji's fold, given hos own strong ace-jack hand and the pot odds he was already receiving to call.

Hope everyone has a great Christmas as well as New Year's with better times for all of us to come.

Best to each of you, your loved ones and families.  Stay well, positive and motivated.

Quote from: chrismadsen on December 14, 2021, 08:22:06 AM
Baccarat is a game of chance, and you'll want Lady Luck on your arm when you take a seat at the table. Strategically, there's very little you can do to change the fate of the cards. Never bet against a run. Never use your credit to finance your bankroll. Never let other players influence your bet. I can't tell you how many bets I've lost or pulled back trying to please someone else. Set a winning and losing cap. Never play with emotion. It's just business. I learned about the game on 12Bet, and only if I knew all of this before I started playing, I would be much better off.

Here is something I wrote that might help you?

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.0

And also I wrote a series of 10 articles which are posted in the highlighted section all at the top of this room.  Read those of you are truly interested in wagering.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=8219.0

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (AP) — America's casinos have won more money this year than ever before, according to figures released Thursday from a national gambling trade association.

The American Gaming Association said U.S. casinos have already broken the record for most money won in a single year at $44.15 billion.

Those figures are based on reports through October, as well as on a handful of states that have released results from November.

The total surpassed the record set in all of 2019, which was $43.65 billion.

And with many more states still to report November revenue figures, as well as all the December reports, that number will climb even higher. The figures do not include tribal casinos.

October highlights nationwide include in-person gambling continuing to drive the industry's recovery, with brick-and-mortar activity generating $3.97 billion, topping pre-pandemic totals by 16% from October 2019.

Americans wagered a record $7.05 billion on sports in 25 jurisdictions in October, bringing the year-to-date total amount bet to $42.19 billion. That is nearly double the amount wagered in all of 2020 when just 17 markets were operating.

With some data yet to be reported, commercial sports books kept nearly $408 million after paying out winning bets and other expenses in October, surpassing the previous monthly record of $405 million set in September,

Internet gambling generated $357 million in revenue, up 129% from October 2020, which is also a new monthly record.

And Colorado, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania and South Dakota surpassed annual state revenue records. Connecticut launched sports betting and internet gambling in October.

Combined October revenue from traditional casino gambling, sports betting and internet betting was $4.75 billion, the second-highest monthly total ever and an increase of 30.7 % compared to October 2019.

The industry has now surpassed $4 billion in monthly gambling revenue for eight consecutive months. Before this year, monthly revenue had never topped $4 billion.

Had one the other night.  Just about all singles, doubles and triples.  Then two bankers streaks of a 9 and a 7 bankers.  Just about everyone was wagering heavy each and every time on the players side.