Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2020, 08:42:14 PM
Thanks for your interesting reply Al!

Regardless of the method one likes to use, I see a common trait between my thoughts and your words: the probability to win doesn't come around any corner, we ought to select possible profitable spots within the realm of chaotic disorder.

Thinking in this way we can assume that per every three shoes played, one could be good, the second neutral and the third quite bad (in any order, of course).
Since, as Al correctly sayed, good is inferior to bad for the negative edge, after having won we must expect to lose everything back and naturally there are no guarantees that after bad a balanced good is going to come out shortly.
Well yes and no. And that is why mechanical and scheduled wagering systems will never excel to the point where they are repetitively making money. But with a proper, positive and concrete Money Management Method the player will excel if he wins. Like I have always said your buy-in amounts will be your risk capital and has to be. If you can capture and capitalize on the presentments that are positive and do appear, you will make a good amount of money. But that will not happen in every session. That is why your wins have to far surpass your buy-in volume amounts rather than a mere two, three or four units of profit, the way most people are claiming these days on the internet gambling forums.

It could happen that two, three or even more consecutive shoes produced all good situations, yet the probability this thing happens is very low.   You are exactly spot on, right at 100%. It would be extremely a rare session where shoe after shoe for several shoes all produced good situations repetitively so.

At the same token, it could happen that two, three or more shoes will form bad events and it's now that the catastrophe is coming.  I believe most of us spot more bad then good even after it happens. And we tend to remember bad more so then good, unless we won a considerable amount of money on the good. Maybe because if we missed the good, we plain messed up?

We can't give the casino the luxury to know that we are going to bet every shoe dealt (or most part of them).

That's the downfall of every mechanical method presented or sold everywhere.
A method is set up in order to win no matter what, maybe stuffed with worthless stop win or stop loss techniques.

We can't interfere with probabilities, they are just there and it's up to us to estimate what's more likely now.   You raised a point and it's a point of view. However I believe my point of view is to catch it while it's happening and not estimate what's more likely to happen.

as.

For the first time in the history of New Jersey gambling, a quarterly financial report of the gaming industry was devoid of any brick-and-mortar revenue.


https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25265-atlantic-city-casinos-post-nine-figure-loss-during-second-quarter

https://youtube.com/watch?v=WfTqL6cMSH0

In response to the above post.

Number 1 Top Section:  Spot-on.

Number 2 Top Section:   Money management if used with a method that is good, will allow additional wins to come without jeopardizing your Buy In or Reserve Money in front of you. However the method must be able to take advantage of opportunity and you must stop when the opportunity is finished. If not, false positives and false hopes will wipe you out each and every time.

Money Management does not overcome anything, it only regulates you if you apply it correctly and can strictly adhere to it.  IMO, not always easy to do at a live table. It can be done but it is very difficult.

Number 3 Top Section:  Positive situations as you say, I say 'presentments of opportunity'. You are correct. However they are not equal. Positive ones in my opinion will always be less than that of the negative ones.

Number 4 Top Section:  This is most people's downfall for not winning what opportunity does present itself when they play.  They restrict themselves with false positives and false hopes, and those become huge burdens forbidding the catch of any flow with any kind of sizable wins as it is happening.

Number 1 Bottom Section:  I would personally never flat bet and bet continuously, it is sheer suicide if you're playing shoe after shoe even for say three shoes unless you get extremely lucky and have something going strictly in your favor. But that won't be for more than one session most likely. With that said, what I would stress is that 1/3 figure to be a strict  20 to 25 hands maximum.

Number 4 Bottom Section:  Spot on. One or two shoes or possibly a third shoe is probably a session maximum, if the person won anything sizable on shoe #1 and #2 or lost on shoe #1 and recouped and won on shoe #2. Seldom into the 4th shoe or more. In reality, in the casino that is. After shoe #3 going into #4 it is going to be extremely hard to be unbiased, adhere to money management, not be emotional-either positive or negative emotions and if you did win your greed level will rise very quickly and immensely.   Most players do not even realize the burden that they have on them once they start winning and winning sizeable amounts.  They become so emotional and so egotistical, bulletproof and greedy, that they cannot see straight and are almost guaranteed to give it back, give up all their buy in money as well as any additional reserve money they have on them every time.

You know at this one Casino we have to walk past the roulette tables on the way in and out because of the limited entrances currently.

So after walking past the roulette tables a good amount of times, we just stopped and look at the numbers that have hit on the scoreboards. And sometimes we notice the numerous repeaters and other times we do not see any or maybe one in the last 25 or so hits or ever how many numbers are displayed on the scoreboards.

Following repeaters are just the same as continually wagering for a long streak or Chop Chop every single time for the next 15 20 25 30 hands at Baccarat, in my opinion.

More layoffs coming to the Las Vegas Strip; 350 workers could be affected

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/more-layoffs-coming-to-the-las-vegas-strip-350-workers-could-be-affected/amp/

Some Midwest casinos announced today they're back to normal hours 24 hours 7 days a week, all restrictions on hours are lifted. I'll tell you, rebuilding and getting back to schedules are much better than it is on the East and West Coasts, where people do not cooperate and people just don't understand the politics and the protocols that have to be followed.

The slow dismantling of the old Trump Plaza casino in Atlantic City has begun.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/trump-plaza-atlantic-city-casino-open-demolition-20200818.html?outputType=amp

A hotbed location where C-19 is being obtained and spread; #1) into Southern California; #2) into Arizona; and #3) elsewhere throughout the United States in smaller quantities.

https://www.propublica.org/article/cellphone-data-shows-how-las-vegas-is-gambling-with-lives-across-the-country/amp

On the lighter side:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1WVhbgoe854

The places in the midwest that I play at, currently have $5,000 and $10,000 Max tables. Plenty of Chinese players, most of them are regular players, some coming in from other states where the casinos are not up and running or the table games are not up and running.  But there is absolutely no resentment towards the Chinese players whatsoever, no matter what happened with their country's government and the origination of  C19, etc., and there is absolutely no talk or related discussion about C19 whatsoever that I have seen in the last several months at the casinos, unless it is a question about masks or drinking at the table. 

Although not on the scale for international travelers and an international destination in the Midwest, I grant you but still there is no resentment or feelings towards the Chinese people bringing in $10,000 to $30,000 as a norm for a regular session.

Perfect direction for Atlantic City.

https://breakingac.com/2020/08/snoop-dogg-tells-mayor-he-wants-to-invest-in-atlantic-city/

https://therealdeal.com/2020/08/09/mgm-desperate-for-cash-launches-work-from-vegas-program/amp/

https://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2020/aug/07/caesars-still-planning-to-sell-las-vegas-casino-pr/

This is  what the baccarat pit looks like 10 tables,  3 were shut down this is about 4:30 a.m., they shut down on the weekends around 5 a.m. now with C19 rules and regulations. 6 Midi non commission tables where the players handle the cards and 4 Five Treasures Bac which is mini bac style and is a commission game, and the dealer handles the cards.  4 people allowed to play at each table, masks are required, you have to stand your distance, no congregating around the tables. It was busier about an hour ago, most of the night.

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