"I fear that most of your points rely upon your long experience very few baccarat players have..."

Facts are interpreted differently by each of us in a game like Baccarat, dependent upon each of our own experiences.

In my own opinion it's all based around that, and that is a start for the way each of us will wager and what each of our session Visions might be.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2020, 09:26:16 PM
Thanks Al!
I fear that most of your points rely upon your long experience very few baccarat players have...
Simulated shoes are not real shoes and simulated outcomes are not real outcomes, especially if one considers red or blue dots simply as red or blue dots...



Very often quality overcomes quantity.

as.

Belief in Something.  Influenced.  Visual Factors.

Here, let me spell something out.  If you believe something even if not scientific, mathematical or historically discovered, proven and absolutely correct, is it wrong?  What I mean is, can you have something you do that is correct and proper for yourself in your situation or circumstances?  And have that work positive for you and for what purpose you created it or found it?

Reality will supersede in factual results.  Always will, it must.  Does not matter what you are doing, the factual results will cancel, accept or discount whatever you introduce along the way, at the end.  Do we agree?

Problem is, almost all of us do not really think at the table when we are playing baccarat.  We really do not.  We get sucked in and we get sucked in big time.  Sure, you can read this and shrug your shoulders and say, Glen you do, I do not.  But hey, we both know that is wrong.

Just about all of us have two ways to play this game. One is in our heads, on paper, on the computer and everywhere else except the live brick and mortar event itself.  The other, is the brick and mortar event.  Lots of things happen when we get to the casino.  And the sad part of it all, they happen without any of us doing anything.  We are oblivious to them and we chase everything and pursue every avenue except ourselves to control, govern and take charge of ourselves in the proper way at the casino.  Again, shrug your shoulders and say I have no idea what I am talking about, but I do and I do 100 percent for about 98 to 99 percent of everyone.

Most of what really does happen at a casino is the person is influenced from the effects of the visual factors. The visual factors present themselves in varying ways to the different people there.  The influencing manipulates in varying stages and degrees as well.  But the bottom line is, it happens, and it happens repeatedly throughout the session(s) to the people.  Because the people are in a situation, they believe they belong in, are comfortable in and will prevail, their understanding of that same situation is not being addressed or understood.  And that is where the problem lies and develops and preys upon the people that gamble at the game of baccarat.

The Most Dangerous Thing at Baccarat.

What is the most dangerous thing, the most powerful thing and the thing that causes wrongful beliefs, dangerous influences and life changing factors within hours?  It is money.  The same as it does in businesses and families.  Just in those two it takes a much longer time to come to fruition.

I will never forget a guy back in Atlantic City, New Jersey.  It was at Bally's Grand casino property.  I remember this guy to this day vividly clear and this was back around the very early 1990's.  He was in a light-colored blue blazer with dress pants and a dark yellow dress shirt.  He was gambling, I did not know him.  Somehow, we made eye contact.  I was a few seats away at a big baccarat table, the kind with the 2 sides with 7 players to each side and the 3 dealers in the middle of the table.  He kept pulling out envelope after envelope of cash from his inside pocket of his jacket when he would lose whatever he had in front of him.  Not small money but not anything record breaking for a larger casino anyway.  I think the envelopes had like $5,000.00 or so in each one.  He is burning through them steady.  A couple of hours pass, and he looks over at me and says, I can not believe how much I spent already, this is my life savings I am gambling with.  A while goes by and he says almost the same thing again.  His face is turning cold and hard looking.  He is stiff.  After another bit of time he pulls out an envelope and tells me, this is my last bit of cash, if I lose this, I am broke, financially ruined within one day.  I really could not say anything at the time, I never realized how gambling effected people back then.  You must realize at that time I was in the New York City adult business as well as the restaurant business in Midtown Manhattan and cash was never a problem and everyone, I gambled with was business owners that gave a new meaning to the words, liquid assets.  But this guy, I will never forget.  Of course, within say 30 minutes or so, he loses the buy in of his last envelope.  He looks at me and I look at him.  He has this blank stare on his face, real deep and dark.  Real sad looking.  He just sits there looking at the table and the floor, alternating between the two.  I do not know how much he burned through, but I would say it was between $100,000.00 and $200,000.00 judging by the envelopes I saw him go through after he caught my attention.  I will never forget that gentlemen.  The conviction he had, the seriousness, the methodical buy ins, etc., etc., and so on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gLLZ_D1Lqw

Now the real damage will start and it'll only get worse. The Free Ride & Profits all these years is officially over.

MGM Resorts International said Friday it is sending separation letters to 18,000 U.S. employees who were furloughed during the coronavirus pandemic, making their job cuts permanent for now.

MGM's Empire City remains closed in New York state, as does its Park MGM in Las Vegas. Casinos in Las Vegas, where MGM has an outsized presence on the Strip, continue to be especially affected by declines in tourism and travel, restrictions on capacity, the lack of fans at sports events, and negligible conference and group business.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/28/mgm-resorts-sends-separation-letters-to-18000-furloughed-employees.html

Unrealistic Expectations. Examples

Because you have not seen it, or whatever is happening has not happened in your recent memory, or what is happening totally out of the realm because of your understanding of Randomness, Trends, Patterns, and Presentments in general, etc.. does not mean anything will appear or will not appear while you are sitting at the table.

Shoe after a small section of normal chop-chop and 3s and 4s, etc.   Starts the wins of player after player appearing. In fact 9 players appear with either a natural or a hand with the first two players cards versus the first two Bankers cards, the bankers would have won the highest majority of all times.  But the players third card brings the players up to 7, 8 or 9 every single time when the bankers were already sitting at 6 or 7. Then one banker and a natural tie. And almost everybody's money once again is huge on  the bankers side for the bankers to start 'equaling out'. Once again 8 additional players in a row. Making it 17 players to 1 banker and one tie in that section.

You cannot help but to watch those wagering consistent sums of $3,000 to $5,000 and up to $10,000 a hand on these types of Wagers. And I'm talking about on the opposite side cut. The desperation in their faces is blatant.  Even if you want to wager on the opposite side say $500 or $750, seeing the action and the hopes on the opposite side is emotional. It is influential for many purposes to many at the table. Like I said with other things coming into the casino or at your house, you may say that you're going to play your own game and you won't pay attention to anybody, but it doesn't always happen that way.

Watching players lose $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 in a short section of a shoe is powerful, believe me I see it all the time. I know a lot of these people and they are not multi-millionaires with whatever cash they bring to the casino is extra play money and a hobby to them. It is from their households and their businesses. They get hurt and they get hurt real bad. Again it is influential at the table no matter if you're wagering with them and supporting their decisions or you're playing the opposite side.

So to continue, the expectation was totally on the bankers to 'come back', 'match up' or 'get ahead'. In other words, what is being presented and how it is being presented, most baccarat players really believe it's not supposed to be happening  and will immediately allow such to govern their expectations, plain and simple. 

The other huge factor is the following. We are influenced at the table so many times and in so many ways, at least the highest majority of baccarat players are. Emotions come into play as well, both the positive as well as the negative ones. No matter what you say or plan beforehand, at the table things can change. Especially with people winning big on anyting you are not wagering on, or you are just wagering extra small on it. When you see someone repetitively win you join them and then they start losing, or you wager against them and they continue to win.  It becomes extremely emotional and influential and almost all baccarat players will not admit that very thing.

You start the rationalization of how to beat the house with everything from less wagering, to watching & waiting, to wagering large for only a few times, to wagering small and flat betting, as well as with up and pulls, etc. Making up all kinds of win stops and loss stops. The list is very long but the bottom line is, you convince yourself of your knowledge, what has to happen, etc., and that is exactly where most people's downfalls truly begin.

"Win", is a given not a fuel or an indicator. It has to be allocated to your Money Management Method and excluded from your decisions. It has to be, otherwise it will only be a fuel for your loss forthcoming.

"To Accept the Loss". Said without much thought really. In business, in investing, gambling, and personal life, everywhere. "To Accept the Loss" is a universal catch-all for many reasons covering many areas.

You cannot always 'control' or 'regulate' things so much really. Then when you seemingly can 'control' or 'regulate' whatever it is causing you to wager on one side or the other and are constantly winning, the number of hands will be only a few. 

Do not think your Money Management Method can overcome losses, bad decisions and your mistakes. It cannot and never will. Money Management Methods are best used effectively to allow win money to be divided up into two areas. Number 1) To go into your active play money, and/ or Number 2) To go into you're locked up money.  A proper Money Management Method will allow you to continue winning if you are and hold a certain amount of the win money and all of your buy-in, if you start to lose and have the willpower to walk away.

In essence so many baccarat players believe that their Money Management Methods, unlike what I described in the  above paragraph; will control, recoup losses and regulate themselves while playing. And that is extremely dangerous. You are hurting yourself with your own unrealistic expectations.

Because most all baccarat players believe that they have to make up for losses or enter into other forms of wagering to recoup losses to get even, they lose sight of the shoe presentments as they are happening and move into the frame of mind that 'XYZ' will be coming out for whatever justification they feel good believing. This is where whatever you win on one or a few hands, will be lost on subsequent wagers with your attempt to repeat wins.

And at this point almost all of us will be affected by our emotions, with or without our knowledge that they have.

When loss does not happen we usually excel and excel with pride, happiness, purpose and huge drive no matter if it's small, medium or large wins involved. Of course, larger is going to produce greater responses from us but even the small ones ignite our energy and hopes to get to the larger ones. But the downside is knowing when to leave the casino and these days I see less and less of people leaving with sizable win money. Like I said, winning money becomes extremely dangerous because it changes a clear way of thinking. It also influences 'Unreal Expectations', which I'll write about next.

And that is exactly why most all the internet forum people will claim they are wagering without emotions, claiming they checked their emotions at the door along with all other false hopes.  Much easier said and planned outside the casino than what is actually consistently able to be done at a live baccarat table.

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2020, 08:42:14 PM
Thanks for your interesting reply Al!

Regardless of the method one likes to use, I see a common trait between my thoughts and your words: the probability to win doesn't come around any corner, we ought to select possible profitable spots within the realm of chaotic disorder.

Thinking in this way we can assume that per every three shoes played, one could be good, the second neutral and the third quite bad (in any order, of course).
Since, as Al correctly sayed, good is inferior to bad for the negative edge, after having won we must expect to lose everything back and naturally there are no guarantees that after bad a balanced good is going to come out shortly.
Well yes and no. And that is why mechanical and scheduled wagering systems will never excel to the point where they are repetitively making money. But with a proper, positive and concrete Money Management Method the player will excel if he wins. Like I have always said your buy-in amounts will be your risk capital and has to be. If you can capture and capitalize on the presentments that are positive and do appear, you will make a good amount of money. But that will not happen in every session. That is why your wins have to far surpass your buy-in volume amounts rather than a mere two, three or four units of profit, the way most people are claiming these days on the internet gambling forums.

It could happen that two, three or even more consecutive shoes produced all good situations, yet the probability this thing happens is very low.   You are exactly spot on, right at 100%. It would be extremely a rare session where shoe after shoe for several shoes all produced good situations repetitively so.

At the same token, it could happen that two, three or more shoes will form bad events and it's now that the catastrophe is coming.  I believe most of us spot more bad then good even after it happens. And we tend to remember bad more so then good, unless we won a considerable amount of money on the good. Maybe because if we missed the good, we plain messed up?

We can't give the casino the luxury to know that we are going to bet every shoe dealt (or most part of them).

That's the downfall of every mechanical method presented or sold everywhere.
A method is set up in order to win no matter what, maybe stuffed with worthless stop win or stop loss techniques.

We can't interfere with probabilities, they are just there and it's up to us to estimate what's more likely now.   You raised a point and it's a point of view. However I believe my point of view is to catch it while it's happening and not estimate what's more likely to happen.

as.

For the first time in the history of New Jersey gambling, a quarterly financial report of the gaming industry was devoid of any brick-and-mortar revenue.


https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/25265-atlantic-city-casinos-post-nine-figure-loss-during-second-quarter

https://youtube.com/watch?v=WfTqL6cMSH0

In response to the above post.

Number 1 Top Section:  Spot-on.

Number 2 Top Section:   Money management if used with a method that is good, will allow additional wins to come without jeopardizing your Buy In or Reserve Money in front of you. However the method must be able to take advantage of opportunity and you must stop when the opportunity is finished. If not, false positives and false hopes will wipe you out each and every time.

Money Management does not overcome anything, it only regulates you if you apply it correctly and can strictly adhere to it.  IMO, not always easy to do at a live table. It can be done but it is very difficult.

Number 3 Top Section:  Positive situations as you say, I say 'presentments of opportunity'. You are correct. However they are not equal. Positive ones in my opinion will always be less than that of the negative ones.

Number 4 Top Section:  This is most people's downfall for not winning what opportunity does present itself when they play.  They restrict themselves with false positives and false hopes, and those become huge burdens forbidding the catch of any flow with any kind of sizable wins as it is happening.

Number 1 Bottom Section:  I would personally never flat bet and bet continuously, it is sheer suicide if you're playing shoe after shoe even for say three shoes unless you get extremely lucky and have something going strictly in your favor. But that won't be for more than one session most likely. With that said, what I would stress is that 1/3 figure to be a strict  20 to 25 hands maximum.

Number 4 Bottom Section:  Spot on. One or two shoes or possibly a third shoe is probably a session maximum, if the person won anything sizable on shoe #1 and #2 or lost on shoe #1 and recouped and won on shoe #2. Seldom into the 4th shoe or more. In reality, in the casino that is. After shoe #3 going into #4 it is going to be extremely hard to be unbiased, adhere to money management, not be emotional-either positive or negative emotions and if you did win your greed level will rise very quickly and immensely.   Most players do not even realize the burden that they have on them once they start winning and winning sizeable amounts.  They become so emotional and so egotistical, bulletproof and greedy, that they cannot see straight and are almost guaranteed to give it back, give up all their buy in money as well as any additional reserve money they have on them every time.

You know at this one Casino we have to walk past the roulette tables on the way in and out because of the limited entrances currently.

So after walking past the roulette tables a good amount of times, we just stopped and look at the numbers that have hit on the scoreboards. And sometimes we notice the numerous repeaters and other times we do not see any or maybe one in the last 25 or so hits or ever how many numbers are displayed on the scoreboards.

Following repeaters are just the same as continually wagering for a long streak or Chop Chop every single time for the next 15 20 25 30 hands at Baccarat, in my opinion.

More layoffs coming to the Las Vegas Strip; 350 workers could be affected

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/more-layoffs-coming-to-the-las-vegas-strip-350-workers-could-be-affected/amp/

Some Midwest casinos announced today they're back to normal hours 24 hours 7 days a week, all restrictions on hours are lifted. I'll tell you, rebuilding and getting back to schedules are much better than it is on the East and West Coasts, where people do not cooperate and people just don't understand the politics and the protocols that have to be followed.

The slow dismantling of the old Trump Plaza casino in Atlantic City has begun.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/trump-plaza-atlantic-city-casino-open-demolition-20200818.html?outputType=amp

A hotbed location where C-19 is being obtained and spread; #1) into Southern California; #2) into Arizona; and #3) elsewhere throughout the United States in smaller quantities.

https://www.propublica.org/article/cellphone-data-shows-how-las-vegas-is-gambling-with-lives-across-the-country/amp