Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 16, 2020, 10:56:34 PM
Imo and according to a couple of serious players the best situation to aim for is to win just one unit per shoe. Say per every playable shoe.
Hence there are no "good" or "bad" shoes, just shoes that may or not offer enough "room" to get the searched situations.
"Room" doesn't necessarily means the number of hands dealt so far. There are many of additional factors involved I don't want to discuss here.

Actually in some cardrooms shoes are still shuffled manually, say quickly and badly shuffled thus we could think to get multiple wins per each shoe, but I do not suggest to apply this strategy as bac remains a game full of traps (unless a huge betting spread is utilized after the profit was secured).

I know it's not that appealing to set up a mere +1 profit per shoe (especially knowing that not every shoe is eligible to be played), but think that we join bac tables just to win getting an astounding high probability of success and not to gamble.
Moreover we see that the "luck" factor will be placed in the remotest corner; after having assessed that a given shoe is playable, we do know that a certain event must happen at least once.
A thing confirmed by the fact that itlr profitable spots will produce points mathematically favorite at the start, meaning that no matter which side we've got to bet, itlr the side we wagered got the highest two-card value by values very different to a random environment.

Again you can measure the validity of your system/method/approach by simply controlling the percentages of the two-card highest point happening on the wagered side.
If itlr such values tend to be equal, alas the method can't work. It's just a mere kind of taxed unbeatable coin flip proposition.


as.

You write so many things that are spot on.  To those people that play mostly 'on-line' I would say they will tend to be less agreeable.  And, like yourself, I rather not get into discussions as to the technicality of the on-line gambler versus the brick and motor live casino gambler.  Two different sets of everything, IMO!

Things will work and the same things will not work, in the same shoe or the following shoe or 3 or 5 shoes later or switching tables, etc. 

As I have been attempting to express, define and bring out the type of play I am involved in at B&M casinos, it is not always easy to write about.  Yes, some things are left out and other things I write about are drug out.  I do not know anyway to make all happy any longer here.

A great example was the other night at the casino.  The shoe was a classic gold mine waiting to be picked.  IMO, years ago the casino would have got smacked and I mean big time, like hundreds of thousands of dollars would have went flying out of the dealers rack.  But today the highest majority of the people do not play the way they used to, like pre-2005'ish lets say.  Rarely these days is the casino hurt.  Almost every hand it is pick up $3,000 or $4,000 and pay out $800 or $1,500.  Or pick up $8,000 and pay out $3,000 or pick up $1,000 and pay out $150.  You get the drift. 

Playing for the CUT, meaning the opposite or playing for something to happen, will almost with the highest majority of the times, grind the player right down with his buy in.  If you are playing for a one unit win and that is it, that is very easily done with time, willpower and nothing else to do.  (I will repeat myself, I have a full time business, I have other things I do, I have family, I do not go to a casino-hang all day or all night and spend countless hours each and every day on the gaming floors).  Nothing wrong, I just do not do that.  With that said, I was at the casino the other night.  The shoe was a few ones and twos the way it started, then 2 rows of Players side wins the first one 8 Players repeating than one Banker then one Player then one Banker then another 9 Players repeating themselves once again. 

I watched in amazement how every single person on that table except for one, wagered and kept wagering for the Bankers side to win.  Tens of thousand of dollars were lost to the casino. I am telling you, the newer style of baccarat is in the casinos favor, tailored by the casino and most of its dealers, the set ups and the aura in general. Couple those things with the higher internet know it all, A-Alpha male persona, etc., and the casino is a happy camper as the saying goes. 

Then after the two rows of Players side wins, there was a section of 1s, 2s and 3s.  Then the Bankers side wins almost replicated those Players side repeating wins to a T.  Except they were stronger and with more naturals and a lot of 7s over 6s, and 4s and 5s for the Bankers first two cards and the Players 3rd card killing the Players side each time.  Of course while all that was going on, almost everyone once again refused to follow but rather went on a wagering war siding with the Players side instead of what was being produced and presented, the Bankers side.  It equaled right out.  The balance of the winning hands equaled out and it does more times than not.  Then it just bounced back and forth until the end of the shoe for the following 20 hands or so.   

No matter what the shoe was producing, almost everyone was only wagering for the CUT, if it was repeating they were all convinced the next hand would go to the opposite side.  If it did CUT, they were then convinced the shoe would produce a repeat and it never did, at least 8 or 9 times out of every 10 hands.

I am just amazed at the typical players mentality these days.  And it is not in one market here, it is the same from region to region.  Sure there are some places that occasionally play the way most of us did prior to 2005 or for sure 2000.  But I would have to say it is a complete opposite turn around, more and more in the casinos favor for numerous reasons, some of which I have outlined and wrote about in the past. 

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2020/02/nora-awkwafina-lum-kelly-sun-phil-ivey-movie-36630.htm

https://www.beatthefish.com/awkwafina-to-play-phil-iveys-edge-sorting-partner-in-the-baccarat-machine/

Oh, and by the way, in case you forgot some things about Slick Willie and his wife, Hoovering Hillary: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitewater_controversy

Oh yeah, Major crimes that we all had to deal with:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anita_Hill


Hill agreed to take a polygraph test. While senators and other authorities noted that polygraph results cannot be relied upon and are inadmissible in courts, Hill's results did support her statements.[19] Thomas did not take a polygraph test. He made a vehement and complete denial, saying that he was being subjected to a "high-tech lynching for uppity blacks" by white liberals who were seeking to block a black conservative from taking a seat on the Supreme Court.[20][21] After extensive debate, the United States Senate confirmed Thomas to the Supreme Court by a vote of 52/48, the narrowest margin since the 19th century.[17][22]


But please, lets not forget about:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_sexual_misconduct_allegations

Bill Clinton, the 42nd President of the United States (1993/2001), has been publicly accused of sexual misconduct by four women: Juanita Broaddrick accused Clinton of raping her in 1978; Leslie Millwee[1] accused Clinton of sexually assaulting her in 1980; Paula Jones accused Clinton of exposing himself to her in 1991 as well as sexually harassing her; and Kathleen Willey accused Clinton of groping her without her consent in 1993. The Jones allegations became public in 1994, during Clinton's first term as president, while Willey's and Broaddrick's accusations became public in 1999, toward the end of Clinton's second term. Millwee did not make her accusations until 2016.

Clinton has adamantly denied all four accusations. Through his representatives, Clinton has responded to the allegations by casting doubt on the credibility of the accusers, noting that (in the case of Broaddrick and Willey) they previously testified under oath that Clinton never made unwanted advances. Several witnesses close to Willey and Jones have stated that the two women described their encounter with Clinton as consensual.[2][3][4]

Of all the allegations made against him, Clinton has only admitted extramarital relationships with Monica Lewinsky and Gennifer Flowers, both of which have generally been accepted as consensual. However, some commentators have nonetheless characterized Clinton's affair with Lewinsky, who was at the time a White House intern, as sexual misconduct because of the vast power imbalance between a president and an intern; Lewinsky was 22 at the time and described the relationship as completely consensual.[5] In 2018, Lewinsky herself began to question her long-standing view that her relationship with Clinton had been consensual, characterizing the relationship as a "gross abuse of power" wherein the power differential between the two was so great that "consent might well be rendered moot."[6]

Charges of sexual misconduct on Bill Clinton's part resurfaced during the 2016 presidential campaign of his wife, Hillary Clinton. When a lewd recording of Hillary's opponent Donald Trump discussing the ability to grope women when in power was released during the campaign, Bill Clinton's accusers, Broaddrick, Willey, and Jones, reemerged as critics of Hillary Clinton, accusing her of enabling her husband's alleged sexual assaults on them. They appeared as guests at the second 2016 presidential debate and referenced Bill Clinton in pre-debate statements.

During the 1990s, most Democrats suspended judgment on the three accusations or stated that they believed Clinton's denials. In the wake of the Harve, etc., etc.


And about the title, Slick Willie.  I only copied it, I did not invent it, that was invented many many years ago for Bill 'Slick Willie' Clinton and other Slick Willies, by peers, the Democrats.

RE:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slick_Willie

Let's go a bit deeper into the possible factors that come into play, consciously or subconsciously:

1)  Interpretations/Misinterpretations

2)  Visions/Beliefs

3)  Feelings/Mindset

4)  Bankroll & Related


#1)   Playing with the Shoe
        [It is always best to 'play the shoe'.  At times it is extremely difficult and almost impossible depending on the other factors occurring, but overall it is always best]

        Stats Trying to Change
        [Once the shoe gets underway an experienced player will be able to visually see that almost every shoe cannot match other ones and while many will set their own stats, others will be a replica of previous shoes.  Keep your mind open to what the shoe is doing-do not say it will stop at so-and-so or try to produce XYC, B's and/or P's.  Be 100% neutral, the shoe is doing all the work and producing all the decisions---you are not!]

        Equals Out/Lopsided
        [To me, this is one of the greatest and easiest traits to follow or not to follow.  The highest bulk of shoes will equal out at the end.  Within a few hands of each other.  But, my advise, is to only use that to gauge your wagers and bear in mind that the side you are about to wager on, could do anything.  Sounds unintelligent of course, but to me it is my tap on the should telling me, no guarantee.  Lopsided shoes do come, although not as often as the equaling out ones, but they certainly do.  To me, after 40 to 55% of the shoe is out, the equaling out is prevalent very so often with the, 20-28, 21-28, 22-28, 22-29, 23-29, 24-29, 25-29, 26-29, 26-30, 26-31, 27-31, 28-31, 29-31, 29-32, 30-32, 31-32, 32-32.  Then something along the lines as, 33-32, 33-33, 34-33, 34-34.  Happens so frequently, don't pay attention to those exact numbers, can be identified in the 20's as well]


        Events to Happen
        [Numerous events as we all have discussed on the board.  Some will happen and many will not.  When they do, recognize them and ride what they present.  Don't wait until it is a sure thing in everyone's minds, because only one thing will happen at that point, it will not be a sure thing any longer]

        Events That Happened
        [Events that already happened can repeat themselves, keep an open mind, although when those events are of a longer nature in number of hands, they are less likely to repeat themselves within the shoe]

        Statistical Reliance
        [Kind of related to Stats To Change above, but I am referring more to those players that rely strictly on the numbers as they are presenting themselves in Stats.  Be careful and although I am a fan of wagering within the reliance to produce itself and either 'make-up' or decelerate a certain side, to me this is a good gauge to add to my bag of thoughts]

#2)  Playing for the Cut or the Repeats
       [While it is a strategy of many, be careful as to when you employ this.  I have done well at times with this and it is probably the number thought of 'wager' in this game.  I am referring to wagering for opposite last decision or the repeating win of the B or P once again]

       Chop/Alternating  and  Repeats/Streaks
       [Lots of players lose on the 'chop-chop' wager, meaning-B-P-B-P-B-P-B, etc.  So easy and comes frequently.  Capitalize on it and then stop. Streaks, I am a firm believer of sticking on the streaks or the strong runs until they fall off.  Lost the last wager, it's all good!  I like the strong/streaks, etc., especially after there has been a period of weak sections for quite sometime and then it goes one or two more on the repeat]

       Trends and Patterns
       [Trends and Patterns happen all the time.  Either weak or strong.  There are believers in this and non-believers.  It is easy to say it is all random and no one can tell anything at anytime.  Correct to a certain point, the exact same as you never know where that cop is going to be sitting on the highway with his radar.  Might be there and might not be there.  But we all know, or should know, there is going to be trends and patterns]

       Superstitions
       [Try to avoid them and don't get caught up in them.  Many will announce their own and while some people live by them, they cannot influence the shoe that actually has no part of them]

       Other Players Actions/Wagers
       [There are pros and cons to wagering with or against other players.  I have written about them on this board.  One thing that I am personally a huge fan of is good camaraderie]

       Dealers
      [I have written about Dealers in another thread on this board, there are many different types and almost every regular player will attest to that!  Some will be attributed with helping players and others will be chastised for almost never letting players win.  Some are the proverbial 'cooler' and some are down right 'mean'.  Most know what they are doing and there is usually one or two at most properties that always make mistakes.  The list goes on.  IMO, if you don't get along with the way the dealer projects him/herself, don't play, wait for the next dealer, SERIOUSLY!]

       Bank of '3' Shoes (re: similarity)
       [I am sure this is challenged by many, but I have found in groups of 3 shoes at a casino they are usually, more than 50% of the times, similar in nature.  I did not say exact, I said similar.  For myself, I have profited from this and I use it as a guide, not gospel and not science.  That is why so many thing are misinterpreted on here!  And, BTW--I use most things as a 'guide' not as science-a rule-gospel and mechanical systems, there is a huge difference!]

      Downfall/Upside of Available Chip Stack (smaller 100% available/larger w/stop)
       [To me, I see downfalls and upsides to the various chip stack players use.  Some players will downright grind and win small amounts in order to be able to build up their stacks and then cash out chips all along like they never had them there.  Some will buy back in when they lose their smaller stacks and many will not.  But, like I said, there are obvious advantages to many in their stack sizes.  Some players, will have that boost and play better with a larger stack, not many IMO thou.  I play better with a moderate size stack and I like putting higher domination chips away and cashing them out as if the chip never existed and the cash is not available]

#3)  Clear Minded/Clouded-Obscured
        [I seriously believe this is important and utmost from the beginning.  I don't feel enough players really realize this.  Have a clear mind and you will have the ability to fully concentrate and realize what is happening, which at the baccarat table is not always that easy]

        Gut Feelings
        [If you are an experienced player and you 'have seen it all', you have a great value IMO.  I absolutely believe and value a good 'gut-feeling'.  Not those feelings based upon thinking it all though and reasoning, just that good old 'gut-feeling'.  They are there in many and they are very real]

        Open Minded/Closed Minded
        [Kind of similar to 'Clear Minded/Obscured above but just being 100% Open Minded.  In this game more than any other, that is vitally important.  It will help you for so many reasons and allow you to visually see and feel a quick moving game that changes up and has tons and tons of circumstances that either happen or don't happen in each shoe.  That is why it takes a player to really have an Open Mind to play better.  Having a Closed Mind will just have a negative effect, plain and simple]

        Preconceived Protocols Employed
        [Very dangerous in every way!  Your expected systems cannot and will not prevail in this game.  Not really much sense to discussing it, but you will lose much greater than you win.  A few hands here and there might fuel a player's thirst and quest when he gets lucky using this but he will suffer]
           
#4)  Drawdown
       [Don't get confused with 'Stop Loss'.  This should be the maximum decrease you will allow in your wagering attack.  You can still wager, as I said a Drawdown is not a Stop Loss.  However, a player has to be careful as to the amount of his buy-in he is willing to risk and aggressively go after the point where he will hopefully start winning.  For example, I might have a 10 unit Stop Loss for my initial 40 unit buy in.  I might also employ a 15 unit drawdown for my progressions or plain initial win.  Units can be different value for the Stop Loss and the Drawdown]   [Since to me, this is also a very important area, I copied the following from an article about Drawdown:  However, we should estimate and predict correctly the drawdown in our money management decisions.  The betting amount for these losing bets must always be available.  Obviously, our total capital must be much more than the maximum drawdown, so that we don't go bankrupt.  In addition, after taking the drawdown into account, there should be enough money to continue betting at the same pace according to our betting system, without any decrease in the bet size.  Moreover, enough capital must be available for the next drawdown curve.]

       Stop Loss
       [Some players have them and some do not.  I take a 'Stop Loss' at meaning--what will I stop my play at during a shoe or section.  Others will say a 'Stop Loss' means--how many hands or how much will they accept losing before they walk away.  Locally where I reside, I play considerable smaller at the local casinos than what I do in Vegas, Southern California or Atlantic City.  So, what I bring is my buy-in, not my gaming bankroll.  I am okay with losing my buy-in if I have a bad night, it is not my bankroll and does not mean I am broke, etc.  Set what you are comfortable with for each]

       Win Management/Reserve
      [It is vitally important that you manage your win money and place something into reserves, not only for your bankroll but for other purposes out side of your bankroll.  It is far too personal for me to tell you what and how, but once you figure it out, your conscious should be happier]

       Money Management
       [I have written about this and mine after I win, is a 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd money split to manage my winning and remainder of my buy-in.  I have detailed this in other posts and after playing for many years, this is my single greatest factor that has helped me hold win money]

       Progressions
       [There is a heck of a lot of threads mentioning progressions on this board and every other board.  It is a subjective topic.  I have found that 1-3-2-6 and/or 1-3-2-4 has assisted me tremendously with some flat-betting fitted in-between.  IMO it is extremely difficult to hold win money and build up without some type of progressions.  It does not have to be a set progression, I only employ a set progression now because it helps me stick to it and it is kind of programmed inside of me.  Another one of my greatest factors that has helped me be more successful than losing]

On a related note, I know I touch on many subjects and many intricacies of real live brick-and-mortar casino baccarat play.

I do not believe in trying to define card order or the meaning of Randomness and how to literally beat it. I don't believe anyone ever will and I don't believe it's possible to do any type of mechanical or scheduled wagering with successful results with consistent play.

In summation to this quick note, I believe in identifying and recognizing and wagering when something is there that is powerful and presenting itself while capitalizing on it with positive progressions with my money management methods involving win money.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/norovirus-outbreak-louisiana-casino-200-sick-investigation.amp

Sit back, take the time to view each one of the videos I choose to put for relevance to the bac shoe posted here from the other night.  Yes, it was fantastic, in fact?past fantastic. 

You really need a cocktail glass with some ice, fill it with Disaronno and have a nice cold bottle of Pellegrino water as well.  Watch the videos and then view the picture of the shoe. 

You have to be at the table, have the ability to recognize what is being presented and know when to stop as well.  There are no magical systems or structured wagering that will allow you to win consistently.  When it is time to smack the casino, it will represent itself to those that have the neutral ability to realize it and wager with the shoe instead of against it or wait it out for those unintelligent as F**K virtual bets. 

The first one is parallel to what a few of us did.  And yes, those of us that know each other at the table recite a few of the lyrics as we are doing it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg

The next one, focus on those two girls singing, just as we 3rd Banker and we all started wagering heavy on the F-7 to present itself:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70

The dealers were switching and a dealer, I will call her, M came in.  Just as she was about to tap out the dealer that started it all, this song came on.  Don't forget this casino the dealers keep their own tips, at times their tips could equal $500-$1,000.00 for a few shoes of Bac dealt.  M is a well-known dealer with lots of style and never swoops away the lost bets, knows when not to say anything as well as gives those great winks, smiles, head nods and everything else along those lines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJskIJGEsd8


Yes, there were 3 Koreans at the table, I think this is more than appropriate and two of them had over $500.00 on that second F-7 that hit on the 21st hand! And yes, table was rocking!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFqlwAWuMTg

This little video story fits the run of 6 Bankers with the 5 consecutive naturals for the Banker.  By the way, every hand for the Players side was either a 7 or a Natural 8, LOL.  And when M was pulling those naturals and sliding us the cards, all the Natural Player 8s that were flopped first, she was citing a face card and a 9 or something else equaling 9 as she was sliding us the cards, every time, and she was saying, "Burning Down the House"!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg73GKm7GgI

This song fits:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj231TLCbD4

Add I dedicate this one to M, thank you for your style and your absolute great head nods and winks when you flopped so many winning cards for us!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkMmlHNvlR8

The last song is a great one and fits as well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjf8F3v18DY


And here is a shot of the shoe, when M got tapped out and we all decided it was time to cash out.  Yes, I wish they could all be like this but they will never be!

[attachimg=1]

Check out the 3 fantastic Bead Plate lines, like solid, fool-proof and we all recognized those as they were happening.  Yes we all followed those 3 lines.

A Very Special Dedication

To one of the greatest roulette players, roulette teacher, tutor, physicist, theorist, and ESP Professor extraordinaire galore!  Oh yeah, the absolute greatest rock climber as well. 

Without any further ado, here is my dedication to him:

The only thing left out here in this clip is the greatest posting on the message board with his tablet in his hand while swinging and jumping without any ropes whatsoever from rock ledge to rock ledge.  He really does climb those 50,000 to 100,000 foot cliffs he so often writes about and posts on the boards at the SAME TIME!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0KzvD-0rx0

Next in my dedication is a glimpse inside of his RV that he travels from casino to casino in, taking them down for millions at their roulette tables while never attracting the attention of the pit bosses and floor supervisors because he always uses red chips, yes it is true.  And here is an exclusive glimpse of his RV that Jorge had online before he sold this unit to our friend:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuLFxRNotGI

My dedication now moves on to one of his casino sessions where he got a tad bit upset.  Although he normally plays roulette and once in a while baccarat, I caught him here at the Poker table one night.  I will not pass judgement, but needless to say, he brought attention to himself with the pit bosses and the floor supervisors.  This was on the west coast while he was RV?ing around, after this he took off for Atlantic City is what I was told.  By the way, our friend got upset because they accused him of using a system to win numerous previous hands just before this clip was shot:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-lC93Vq_9Q


Now we move on the Atlantic City, New Jersey.  A few days after his session above, he was discovered in the Tropicana at Atlantic City and he was taking them down for millions.  So, the pit bosses and floor supervisors all got together and made the decision just to get rid of him.  I was there to catch it on my phone cam and here it is:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knWxtPnc8ss

I also caught him with the ESP thing, here is a glimpse into the great ones insight involving ESP Predictions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4awQktsC3W8

Anyone remember ABSCAM here?

How many Democrats were present in ABSCAM?  How many Republicans?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abscam

US Senator Harrison A. Williams (D-NJ)
US Representative Frank Thompson (D-NJ)
US Representative John Jenrette (D-SC)
US Representative Richard Kelly (R-FL)
US Representative Raymond Lederer (D-PA)
US Representative Michael "Ozzie" Myers (D-PA)
US Representative John M. Murphy (D-NY)
Five other government officials were convicted, including:

Mayor of Camden, New Jersey, Angelo Errichetti (D)
Philadelphia, PA City Council President George X. Schwartz (D)
Philadelphia, PA City Councilman Harry Jannotti (D)
Philadelphia, PA City Councilman Louis Johanson (D)
An inspector for the US Immigration and Naturalization Service was also convicted

And yes, Atlantic City Casinos were the topic:

....."Each congressman who was approached would be given a large sum of money in exchange for "private immigration bills" to allow foreigners associated with Abdul Enterprises into the country and for building permits and licenses for casinos in Atlantic City, among other investment arrangements.[10] Among the casino projects involved were the Ritz-Carlton Atlantic City,[11] the Dunes Hotel and Casino (Atlantic City),[12] the Penthouse Boardwalk Hotel and Casino, and the sheikh's fictional casino.[13] The first political figure ensnared in the phony investment scheme was Camden mayor Angelo Errichetti. In exchange for monetary kickbacks, Errichetti told the sheikhs' representatives "I'll give you Atlantic City." Errichetti helped to recruit several government officials and United States congressmen who were willing to grant political favors in exchange for monetary bribes (originally $100,000 but then reduced to $50,000)......"

Bump.

Why is it?  Maybe someone or some people can shed some light on this?

I have wondered for some time now, why someone that knows their profession, career, etc., so well and is seemingly intelligent and well-seasoned, do things that are less than acceptable and definitely on the wrong side of protocol? 

Here is the perfect example.  Take a well-seasoned detective like, 'Big Nick' and look at what he does with the donut he tosses into the hot-zone. 

:30 to 1:23.  Please look, it is just wrong, so wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnIvJCngTpo

Her ticket for $7,000.00 on the Chiefs yesterday:

[attachimg=1]

H-Money's sister put $7,000 on the Chiefs and she just finally showed everyone the ticket, she didn't say anything cuz she knew what her brother put, oh well it is what it is.....

Sorry H-Money I'll say it now with a minute and 20 seconds left unless a miracle happens some guy comes out in the purple robe with yellow moons on it with a pointy hat and the magical wand,  does not look good buddy.