Funny how times have changed!  I have said it before and I will say it once again.  Baccarat (at least in real B&M casinos) has changed in the past 10 years or so.  I say it is because of the huge influence of the internet and easily accessed (and believed) gaming information by system publishers, self-published books, and everything else along those lines with gambling and of course baccarat. 

Do not get me wrong.  We used to lose before the AI and the evolution of the Internet as I mentioned.  But we used to clean out the dealers rack a heck of a lot more often than what takes place now.  With the belief of the statistics, mathematical grinding surpasses positive progression with show presentments, etc., etc., and so on---there is a lot less players these days absolutely pouncing on and smacking the casino.  They read, learn and strictly limit themselves to the 'CUT' and 'GRIND' and are lucky to escape the casino with breaking even or a few units, rather than the kinds of wins that were more regular before that would certainly be classified as a genuine 'rarity' now.

Last night I was at the casino.  I sat down as one shoe was ending.  The shuffle took place and after the dealer performed a mini-hand shuffle (as the players requested) after taking the cards from the automatic card shuffling machine, the game was on.  A few 1's and 3's to start and a couple of 1's and 2's and around hand 18-20 or so, the following comes out.

BBBBBBBTBB-P-B-PPPPP-B-T-P-T-B-T-P-T-B-T-P-T-BB-P

So, it looked something like this after the initial 18 hands or so:

B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B-P-B
B        P-T-T- T-T- T-T-B
B        P
B        P
B        P
BT-B-B

A couple of the people playing did make a good amount of profit on just that section, but by far the majority lost their rear ends!  They continual and without thought, wager for the 'CUT' convinced that the next hand has to 'CUT' to the opposite side for whatever reason.  Then right about the time the ties began, most of them wager for the repeats.  The ties just added confusion and fallacy to the entire 'attempting to figure out reasoning' of what the shoe is producing and why. 

H-Money went to the casino last night.  Tells me he arrived there at about 2:00 AM and was a full table all 12 seats having players in them with at least 15-20 people standing wagering over their shoulders in each of the other spots.  The one table holds up to 36 players able to play at one time.  Anyway, his friend is playing and everyone was smacking the casino winning most hands for about 10-15 hands or so he told me. 

Then everything changed.  After talking with H-Money for some time, he finally tells me they we all constantly wagering for the classic 'CUT' on just about every hand.  Which of course it was doing.  Then like I said, after about 15 hands or so, it got super strong and was repeating everything, Bankers, Players as well as the chop and doubles.

He said just about everyone continued with the 'CUT' every hand and then switched up to FLD's (following the last win presentment).  Just about the time they did that, the shoe switched back to the 'CUT' once again.

About 6AM nearly all got wiped, a few walked away with something he said.  H-Money brought $500.00 to play with and lost that.  He had another $600.00 on him and he lost that.  He hit his cards and pulled another $900.00 and change after paying the $40 or so monstrous ATM cash advance charges because of the machine's limit, etc.  He wound up losing it all. 

Admitted to me he could not control himself and was literally chasing his lost $500.00 from the very beginning after giving back about $1,000.00 or so of win money he quickly received in just a few hands.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tp93R6jIGAc

Enjoy, another full movie for my friends.   


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG-MC1xrEYo

The Full Movie.  Enjoy my friends!   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V4csMz5y80

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7oeWZ5fFXU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmF4iXs7oSY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLuZjpxmsZQ

Seriously, educational.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7VaXlMvAvk

Creepy behind Cracker, LOL.  Unbelievable!  Really unbelievable. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjVhjMeiGzM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cmh28ov_dJs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwWbuECSPpM

'Vision, Consciousness & Recognition of Funds'

Whether it is bank roll or buy-in or win funds. Does not matter.  A portion of players will handle their funds extremely consciously, very intelligent and with the knowledge and constant recognition, that the funds they possess, on the table, in their pocket, or those that are available,  should not govern them in their decision making processes, whatever that may be.  Pretty much straight forward and simplistic to the easiest ABC's and Gambling 101's.

However, I have asked many people that do play baccarat, as to their views and thoughts on 'win' money in particular.  The rest the money situation and how each thinks about it, really is too varied and too complicated to understand without knowing those people 24/7 for huge amounts of time.  So, here it is from the 'horses' mouths as the saying goes.

I asked H-Money the other night. Me: "Say you won $100,000.00 from the casino and left with it, went and purchased two cars for $50,000.00 each.  Then you went back next week to any casino and lost your check of $1,500.00 that night.  Would you be down $1,500.00 or what"?  H-Money:  "No, I would be not be down, I would be up $98,500.00 if that was my second time gambling". 

He further went on to say, "You have to keep a running total in your head, as to the amount you are up or down, because you are free to play if you are still up and you have to be careful and play more cautiously if you are down, until you get up again." 

WOW! I actually heard almost that same thing from another two baccarat players that played the game for a couple of years or so.  Interesting!  I do believe that money management systems and thought/beliefs about 'win' money, go hand in hand--with how a player thinks, cashes out and gauges his play/session times at the table. 

I have definitely concluded for myself that 'refreshing and resetting' during the sessions as well as at the end of the session, no matter the outcome (win or lose) is vitally important and in your favor tremendously. 

Viewing 'wins' as not yours is extremely dangerous;
Viewing, 'cash outs' as 'up' money is extremely dangerous;
Running tab---of wins and losses and gauging yourself according to same, is extremely dangerous.

The above leads most players to, 'have to make'; 'have to earn'; 'pressure'; 'false positive reinforcements'; 'forced sessions to produce'; 'visions that cannot be seen or realized are even happening in front of them'; 'possible reinforcing of negativity or caution that hampers their winning ability'. 

1)      There is a tendency to confuse the unfamiliar with the improbable. And that my friend is a huge block for many bac players.  The contingency that we have chosen not to, or refuse to, seriously looks strange to us.  And, what looks strange to us, we will generally classify as improbable.  Then subconsciously you NOT will figure, what is an improbable needs not to be considered seriously.

2)      Next, when a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we generally do not even think about it or give it much consideration.  Again a huge mistake to make in bac.  Instead, you will just develop a sort of mind-blindness to those types of things.  My reasoning behind that is the following.  You will not admit to what you do not know.  Simple.  AKA:  Not having or refusing to have an open mind.

3)      A known or an Unknown? Donald Rumsfeld summed it up best.  Here is what I am talking about.  There are known knowns; there are things that we know we know.  We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things that we do not know.  But there are also unknown unknowns-there are things we do not know we do not know.

4)      Few things fall squarely into the categories of totally predictable or totally unpredictable in baccarat.  Even if you do not know to predict something with 100% certainty, you might be able to come up with an estimate or a forecast of type, to at least visual the threat, which is if you are in the right frame-of-mind.   But at least you will give yourself an edge and get a little further and become a little better than sitting there oblivious to what can happen.  If you fail to make a forecast at all, you will see everything important as an unknown and those very things will remain as an unknown.

5)      Be careful against giving yourself, or allowing yourself to remain with a mental block.  The problem of the mental block will develop out of frustration that your knowledge of baccarat is imperfect and/or weak, thus failing to make any forecast or give yourself an edge.  And what is worse yet, after you repeatedly lose playing baccarat, you justify the continuance without any sort of rationalization into a forecast by telling yourself that there is no way to forecast anything because nothing exists to forecast. 

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.   Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it".  Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more the play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will mot ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person?s brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is no the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Posted 8-22-2019.  Thanks, talk later, Alrelax.