4. + and - signs move around isolated and clustered lines in relationship of the spots considered to build a given succession

That means almost nothing, whether only one succession (BP) or one sub succession is taken as the main "target" to base our wagering upon, but holding a very important role whenever we consider ALL possible sub successions as now at the vast majority of the times "extremes" cannot come out of blue for long for two or more sub sequences, either by quantity and (more importantly) by quality.

For example and again considering just the BP succession and the three common derived roads, the overalternating results pace happening simultaneously at two or more lines will be the slight less probable situation, yet the word "slight" means it'll be more than sufficient to erase and invert the HE.
Of course providing to understand that at baccarat there's a general probability to get overalternating movements (average CFS) and an actual probability to get overalternating result lines, especially when we are considering different result sequences.

In fact the bac production is asymmetrical in the past, now and in the future, our task shouldn't be oriented to "hope" that such asymmetry will particularly last for long, just approximating any card distribution by more likely "ranges".

More later

as.

Also try:

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/reality-advantaged-winning-continuing-series/msg72156/#msg72156

I know it's long, but it is real!

Hello dear @albertojonas, please check the evolution of the 50% MM:

75% Money Management
https://rouletteideas.com/money-management/75-money-management/

Also, I've recently shared my "ALL-IN TO FREE PLAY" / A2F:
https://rouletteideas.com/ultimate-roulette-tool/all-in-to-free-play/

(In the same line of thought)

Vic

Started using this.

The core principle is that a finite asymmetrical distribution enforced by an additional asymmetrical factor dictated by the rules will make slight more probable the formation of decent asymmetrical sequences.

By taking into account the columns filling speed we've seen that an overalternating movement (-+-+-+...) can only happen with the BBPPBBPP...sequence (or rrbbrrbb...etc). 
It's now that the "general long term findings" will help us to approximate when such kind of movement will happen, obviously without interest to know "how long" the overalternating sequences will last.

Anything different than that will 100% form a + or - cluster (++ or --) and again who cares about its lenght?

Therefore any 3/3+ streak will form at least a - - cluster, any streak ending up followed by a single is a + + sequence and any couple or more singles succession is a + + ...line.
The only possible pattern where + or - signs are coming out as isolated are whenever any 3/3+ streak will be followed by a double then another "no double" streak (BBBPPBBB ---> - - + - + - -.
In this scenario we'll get three isolated + or - signs.

Yet even in this example we could find a kind of asymmetrical distribution (+ coming out as isolated)

Now and to expand the last concept, let's build a sort of perfect asymmetrical BP succession where 
+ and - signs take an "isolated/clustered" shape at both sides.

For example a succession as BBPBBBPPBPPPBBPB
The columns filling speed (CFS) is - + + - - + - + + - - + - + +

Isolated - signs and + signs are followed by - and + clusters, yet the shifting side pace is one or two.

A more complicated example:

BBBBBB
PP
B
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
BB

CFS is - - - - - + - + + + - - - + - + + - -

Any - or + sign is followed by a different same sign quality (clustered followed by isolated and vice versa), yet isolated signs are just two in a row and the original succession is made by two consecutive streaks-two consecutive singles-two consecutive streaks-two consecutive singles...

Besides of this succession and of many correspondent situations (streaks lenght and singles lenght) any bac shoe will make quite room to + or - clusters (++ or --) and anyway distinct forms of apparition (isolated or clustered + or - signs) will be sooner or later followed by opposite shapes. The above example was extremized to present a perfect 0 step isolated/clustered delay as any isolated or clustered + and - sign (considered individually) was always followed by an opposite shape.

In any way we wish to consider result lines only those things could happen:

1- An important part of the shoe will make + or - signs being clustered at some point;

2- + or - individual signs shape will change along the shoe;

3- Itlr + and - signs move more likely by 1 or 2 steps vs superior steps (sums will be slight shifted toward the left), but this feature must be considered by a lot of caution as our primary strategy will always be directed to get clusters of something.
So by taking into account those opposite factors, only +/- double clusters will get us a two-fold propensity. Obviously once a pattern had surpassed the first (losing) 1-step, we should not be interested to chase any longer.

4- Even consecutive isolated + or - signs will constitute a pattern, but most of the times this is just a second-level strategy as generally it happens at few segments of the shoe.

See you next week.

as.

3- Most of the times the original BP succession will make room to many "opposite" simultaneous situations happening at sub sequences

And of course those opposite situations are showing up by more likely "ranges".

Let's consider the basic (very simplified) example of the common derived roads (byb, sr and cr).

The BP shoe's fragment is BPBPBPBP

byb: r,r,r,r,r,r

sr:  r,r,r,r,r

cr: r,r,r,r

At all three d.r., just one "color" happened: the red. This is strong asymmetrical situation derived by a kind of perfect symmetrical BP original sequence.

Along with BBPPBBPPBBPP... and BBBPPPBBBPPP... (and other very unlikely superior perfect symmetrical BP sequences) those are the only spots where all d.r. present just red spots.

Then there are the infrequent long B/P streaks forming possible long red successions that anyway must start with a blue sign at all derived roads.

In fact long BP streaks will delay the columns filling speed at all derived roads, so producing long lines of -1 spots.
Yet here the overalternating results production will be somewhat reduced. But mostly by an "isolated/clustered" statistical point of view as the +/- rhythm cannot be uniformed shaped for long.

More later

as.

2- A long term successful player must be able to exploit the actual asymmetrical situations always considering that the asymmetrical world could be extrapolated by innumerable ways

For example how do you consider a BBPPBBPPBBPP succession?

Possible answers:

a) This is a perfect "balanced" situation as B=P, our registration (see above) will get a
-+-+-+-+-+- symmetrical sequence;

b) This is a perfect asymmetrical deviation as there are no singles and no 3/3+ streaks;

c) The columns speed is "neutral" so featuring a 2-step moving rate.

At the end the BBPPBBPPBBPP sequence will make as constant perfect opposite features, so we'll need to exploit just one of the three possible factors to get a homogeneous detectable succession.

But in the real world such B/P sequence won't happen so frequently, most of the times stopping after two or three BBPP patterns.

Yet the general probability teach us that doubles are the most likely occurence, anyway we do not know whether such doubles will show up consecutively or intertwined with singles.
Or of course not happening at all so far.

Now let's consider a more "mixed" pattern sequence as:

BPPPPBBPBPPPBBBPPB

B= 7 and P= 10

Our registration will get a +---+-+++--+--+-+ succession.

How many symmetrical patterns are you able to spot on?

Just one.
That is the -- patterns being clustered two times in a row (hand #12 and #15).

There are no "silent" pattern categories showing up for long and the columns speed is
+1, -1, -1, -1, +1, -1, +1, +1, +1, -1, -1, +1, -1, -1, +1, -1.

More importantly, we see that - signs will come out more clustered than isolated (3 times vs 2 times) and + signs will show up more isolated than clustered (4 times vs 1 time).

The +/- hopping situation where both + or - signs will happen alternatively either isolated or clustered for long are not happening at the vast majority of shoes.

As an asymmetrical card distribution cannot arrange results by an overalternating QUALITY factor acting at both sides for long, so quality takes a primary role over quantity.

Check your shoes and let me know how many times an overalternating +/- isolated/clustered sequence will take place at both sides and, more importantly, about how much long this possible event will happen per any shoe played.

Let baccarat experts keep stating that baccarat is a unbeatable game, it's our interest to  confirm they are right.

as.

1- The higher two card initial points are overall strongly math favorite to win the final hand

Obviously we want our side to get a 9, 8, 7 and a 6, yet any side getting a superior two card point vs the opposite side will win a lot more hands than what a 50/50 proposition will dictate.

Thus any 2 point vs any zero point or any 3 point vs any 2 point will win by a percentage way superior than 50/50.
The reason is because about 30% of the shoe is "neutral", that is formed by zero value cards (third card/s) not changing the first situation.

Of course many first two card situations present the same point (especially a zero point at both sides), so the third cards impact will decide the final hand's destiny.

Moreover, some card distributions keep privileging one side (especially the Player side that is entitled to draw more third cards than Banker) so kind of disrupting a math propensity for long.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of card distributions will make more probable some greater two card initial points ranges, the reason why an average final amount of columns will be filled no matter how are whimsically distributed the cards.

Even though it's impossible to know when a high two card point (6, 7 or even an will succumb to an even greater point (at the first or after two stages), a part of those math underdog situations will come out at our favor, but this is a transitory unwanted spot that itlr will make us losers and not winners.

I mean that ranges must be assessed either from a general point of view (general distribution and average speed acting toward the right end of the display) and by actual situations that most of the times aren't showing up by symmetrical paces.

More later

as.

The following is an article I came across about professional gamblers and others in reference to the Dragon 7 or the Fortune 7 exploitation bet.  The article was written by Max Rubin with references to Dr. Elliot Jacobson, with that misinformation article a while back that was published on the Wizard of Odds forum.

I will put my two cents in here before I copy and paste the article. One side of wagering for a Fortune 7 also known as the Dragon 7, 40:1 wagers is the following.  IMO, experience and knowledge about the wager-for myself and my protocols of wagering for it, is that I like it.  Although I do not wager constantly and repetitiously for it. I have a greater than 50% rate on it and have profited from it quite well in the past several years. Like everything in the game a baccarat, if you wager on anything repetitiously you will eventually be ground down and lose all your buy-ins as well as your bank roll.

The simple fact that is indisputable reality, concrete solid reality is most will only talk about, is that the game of baccarat can be counted down along with several of its side bets. But as Max Rubin says, within this article, is the huge $100,000 plus bank roll a player will need to have for a possible return of somewhere around $25 an hour. Go figure.  Well said! 

In theory, talkers are great but the bottom line is, in theory and not at the tables in reality. In reality the game is presented completely different than the math and the theory it appears to have.

START ARTICLE.  On the Friday before G2E, Dr. Elliot Jacobson published a short paper at wizardofodds, which illustrated how a card counter could theoretically exploit the Dragon 7 wager on EZ Baccarat and win a quarter of a betting unit per hour.

By the time the show was in full swing, the article had convinced a number of table game operators that the Dragon 7 wager was so dangerous that the now-popular EZ Baccarat side bet should be modified or removed. 

This is a perfect example of how a little bit of (published) information can be a dangerous thing. The reality is that offering players EZ Baccarat—with the Dragon 7 wager—is one of the easiest—and smartest—decisions a table game manager can make, for one simple reason:

Professional advantage players simply will not play EZ Baccarat and count down the Dragon 7 wager. Why? It's one of the least profitable advantage plays a competent professional can (or will) make.

To understand why, let's look at the math, as proposed by Dr. Jacobson. In a perfect world, assuming that the casino were to deal a full eight-deck shoe every hour (which they don't), if the player were to wager $100 on the side wager every time there was a slight advantage, the player could harvest a whopping $25 an hour.

And that's if the conditions were perfect. By perfect, I mean that they would be able to sit on the game for hours on end without making a single Player or Banker wager (impossible) and that they would also be assured of getting a full 80 hands an hour (nearly impossible, as well) and have no need to tip (after hitting a $4,000 bonus—highly unlikely).

If that weren't enough to dissuade the pros or wanna-be pros from tackling the game, in order to make that near-impossible $25 an hour, they would also have to be willing to risk a $100,000 bankroll on the high-volatility $100 wager to avoid an unacceptable risk of ruin. And then they'd have to factor in expenses (travel, lodging, etc.).

In fact, it would be much easier for a seasoned pro (or even a novice counter) to grind out an easy $25 an hour earn—with a much smaller bankroll and a limited risk of exposure—by simply playing existing blackjack games (shoes, 6/5 or Superfun, you name it), the same games they've been exploiting for years. Or they could play some other games/side bets that are more easily exploitable, including Caribbean Stud (which can be played at a 2.3 percent advantage on every hand with shared information and miniscule bankrolls), Mississippi Stud (at more than 3 percent) with shared information and Shuffle Master's "Margin of Victory" Dragon Bonus, which can return a 10th of a betting unit each shoe with a very small risk of bankroll ruin. Yet none of these games has been assaulted by the pros; they're just not worth the time or effort. 

There are two kinds of advantage players—those who talk about it and those that make a living at it—and I don't know a single professional advantage player worth his salt who would even think about sitting on a game on which he would make that measly $25 an hour. But I digress.

The proof that savvy table game operators should continue to offer EZ Baccarat and the Dragon 7 wagers is indisputable; long before Dr. Jacobson released his paper, the pros were aware that game could be counted down, yet none of them played it and in virtually every instance in which an EZ Baccarat game has replaced a conventional baccarat game, the EZ game has made the casino more money.

To further clear up any confusion, check out what Jacobson himself said following the show:

"For the record, I don't believe the Dragon is vulnerable in a significant way. The typically low house limit as well as the high variance of the wager will make it unappealing to professional players. I don't think any changes need to be made to the game to protect it."

Jacobson further explained, "The potential earnings are small and the volatility is enormous. It would require an immense amount of time and a huge bankroll to yield a very small long-term profit. Any casino that removes the Dragon 7 wagers from EZ Baccarat based on my article is making a mistake. No competent advantage player will attack it. Like blackjack, the fact that it can be counted in theory is more likely to draw valuable customers. However, unlike blackjack, no undue measures need to be taken to protect it. I strongly believe my analysis will help those casinos that place EZ Baccarat make more income from the game, not less."

I've known about the theoretical possibilities of beating the Dragon 7 wager for almost a year, yet as a consultant for Barona casino, I have urged them to continue offering EZ Baccarat and the Dragon 7 wager—which they have, with great success.

Should table game operators fear professional Dragon hunters? The answer is no. Why? Because there aren't any.