08 Print Page - Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !

BetSelection.cc

Public software => Roulette Key Gold => Topic started by: Mathemagician on December 02, 2016, 11:59:39 am

Title: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Mathemagician on December 02, 2016, 11:59:39 am
Level Stake betting on even chances using RouletteKeyGold

I'll count even chances any of the 18 number bets as counted by Roulette Key Gold. (I know its not quite an even chance bet being 18 out of 37 numbers.)

I'll use Red as an example but any set of 18 numbers will suffice.

During a session of 1000 spins one can expect red to sleep 4 times (BBBB) on average for around 31 times.

Similarly, one can expect red to sleep 5 times (BBBBB) on average for around 16 times.

Assuming Red won't sleep a fifth time bet on Red every time it sleeps 4 times

Total stake 31 units

If 16 of these bets lose we lose 16 units. However, the other 15 bets win returning 30 units.This shows an overall profit of 14 units. (a fairly typical result)
Of course it's still possible to lose but it is a rare occurrence. (according to my spreadsheet.

Unfortunately, few of us have time to play 1000 spins waiting for RED to sleep 4 times (on average 32 minutes)

But what happens if we bet when any even chance or set of 18 numbers sleeps 4 times, the time take is drastically reduced to only a few minutes between bets!

(If using level stakes on 18 different numbers the stake needs to be 18 times the minimum stake)



---------------------------------------------------------

Incidentally, I've recently come across Powtoon for making cartoon videos, my first attempt at using it is below, let me know what you think.
It's free and I think I can use it to help the five out of three people who can't do Maths !
I find it tricky to get the timing right as you can see  but things can only get better !


https://youtu.be/JmZ2jdhKI9k
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: plolp on December 04, 2016, 01:40:01 pm
Beautiful video

 But very naive method  !!!  :o
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Nathan Detroit5 on December 05, 2016, 06:59:50 pm
A very nice presentation . !


ND 5
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: plolp on December 06, 2016, 04:05:22 am
Level Stake betting on even chances using RouletteKeyGold

I'll count even chances any of the 18 number bets as counted by Roulette Key Gold. (I know its not quite an even chance bet being 18 out of 37 numbers.)

I'll use Red as an example but any set of 18 numbers will suffice.

During a session of 1000 spins one can expect red to sleep 4 times (BBBB) on average for around 31 times.







it's weird  I calculated and found 15.6
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Sputnik on December 06, 2016, 01:29:58 pm
Beautiful video

 But very naive method  !!!  :o

 I don't find it naive, one method have been coded and tested upon similiar principals.
 See above with serie of five, the math add up.

 For example assume you use a trigger of two and do some observations charting and tracking, then you will ask your self how you can win hitting does long strikes where they hovering within series of five.
 Pick one colour, for example RED and each time you get a serie of two or three you write a minus sign -
 Each time you hit a serie of four you make a equal sign =
 And each time you encounter a series of five or higher you write a plus sign +

 Then the result might look like this - - - - = - + - = + - - - = - - - - - = = = - - - = - + - - - + - + - - - = = - = - - - - - - +
 This is a Eye opener why is some times is a good idea betting against the Wheel, even Brett Morton parly his way to winning that way.

 CHeers
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: plolp on December 08, 2016, 08:06:42 am
There are as many série of 5 and above as série of 4

so it's  50/50  .

What is the idea?

Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Mathemagician on December 13, 2016, 06:12:40 pm
Many runs of 4 stop at 4 some go on to 5. It could be half of them but as long as it's less than 66.66% a profit is made.

If red sleeps for 4 say 100 times and you make 100 bets on red. Then if red sleeps for 5 say 66 times and you lose 66 times . But you win 34 times and still show a profit of 2.
(34 winning bets = 68 less 66 losing bets.)

Occasionally you lose more than 66 bets out of 100 then you lose but you usually show a profit.

Also there's no need to stick to Red when RKG watches another 70 or so 'even' chances.


Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Moccoman on December 13, 2016, 07:18:45 pm
31 bets of 1 unit,
16 lose, resulting in -16 units
15 win, resulting in   15 units profit (not 30 units)
Overall result minus 1 unit

Cheers
Mocco
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: esoito on December 14, 2016, 05:31:38 pm
Does anyone have any sound, mathematical reasons for disagreeing with the basic premise behind the first post in this thread?



Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: plolp on December 14, 2016, 07:05:35 pm


If red sleeps for 4 say 100 times and you make 100 bets on red. Then if red sleeps for 5 say 66 times and you lose 66 times . But you win 34 times and still show a profit of 2.
(34 winning bets = 68 less 66 losing bets.)






It's magic .....

Definitely not math !!

Result :  -32
Title: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting . Results of session at W.Hill Roulette Pro
Post by: Mathemagician on December 15, 2016, 07:05:53 am
Here's an actual example playing the numbers

30,30,17,35,9,7,9,9,17,19,4,17,5,22,27,4,8,31

from a real game of Roulette Pro with William Hill.

I didn't have time to wait for just one even chance so I'll played all of them. My unit is £9 as this is the equivalent of 18 bets at £0.50.

I placed one bet only  of £9.00 on every even chance that slept 4 times.
I'm afraid I didn't record the successfully record the game as a video.

But I won 6 bets and lost 5 so finish with a profit of 1 unit (£9.00). If these figures are incorrect then William Hill are in dire trouble !

Opening Balance 125.60

Spin 1 :30
Spin 2 :30
Spin 3 :17
Spin 4 :35

Bet 1
Spin 5
The 18 numbers following 8 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
Result Win on number 9
balance now 134.10
----------------------
Bet 2
Spin 6
Bet on 3 sixains Once only
1-6,10-15 & 22-27
Lost on number 7
Blance now
125.60
-------------------
Bet 3
Spin 7
18 numbers from 34 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
Lost on number 9
Blance now
116.6
------------------
Bet 4
Spin 8
Evens have missed 4 spins
I bet £9.00 on evens
Lost on number 9
Balance 107.60
---------------
Bet 5
Spin 9
18 numbers from 0 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them (50p on each number)
Win 0n 17
Balance 116.10
-----------------
Bet 6
Spin 10
High numbers have missed 4 spins
I bet £9.00 on High
Win on 19
Balance 125.60
----------------
Bet 7
Spin 11
18 numbers from 34 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them
Lost on 4
Balance 116.10
---------------------
Bet 8
Spin 12
18 numbers from 36 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them
Win on 5
Balance 125.60
--------------------------
Bet 9
Spin 13
18 numbers from 33 have missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them
and 3 sixains missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them
Win on 22
Lose on 22
Balance 125.60
-------------------
Bet 10
Spin 17
3 sixains (18 numbers)  missed 4 spins
I bet £9 on them
Win on 31
Balance 134.60
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Jay on December 16, 2016, 06:24:22 am
If 16 of these bets lose we lose 16 units. However, the other 15 bets win returning 30 units.This shows an overall profit of 14 units. (a fairly typical result)

 ???  I don't understand this. Why should the other 15 bets return 30 units? An even chance pays 1:1.
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Mathemagician on December 16, 2016, 10:19:12 am
Sorry to confuse you I'd included the stake. Admittedly, sometimes I'm one of the 5 out of 3 people who can't do maths.

So let's try again

Each winning bet returns 1 unit each losing bet loses 1 unit
In my previous real life example (last post). The figures were as follows:

Bet 1   Win      +1      balance=1
Bet 2   Lose    -1       balance=0
Bet 3   Lose    -1      balance=-1
Bet 4   Lose    - 1     balance=-2
Bet 5   Win     +1      balance=-1
Bet 6   Win     +1       balance=0
Bet 7   Lose    -1      balance=-1
Bet 8   Win     +1       balance=0
Bet 9   Win     +1     balance +1
Bet 9   Lose    -1       balance=0
Bet 10   Win     +1     balance =1


To conclude I made 10 bets
 6 of which won returning 6 units
 5 lost losing 5 units
leaving a total profit of 1 unit in the example given it was £9.00 ( I chose £9.00 units as its easily divisible by 18)

The bets were after any even chance slept 4 times in other words I was betting it wouldn't sleep a fifth time.

The chances of an even chance sleeping 4 times are 1in 16
The chances of an even chance sleeping 5 times are 1in 32
(before anybody says I know its nearer 18 & 37 respectively due to the zero effect.)
My theory is that any even chance will sleep for 4 times more often than it will sleep for 5 times and by betting level stakes once only you come out in profit
but anything can happen !
In my example I only covered a few spins (but observed 70 even chances) I could have gone on and maybe won more or I could have lost.
So I stopped while ahead.

P.S
Believe it or not I am a qualified Maths tutor ! But qualifying was the most difficult thing I've ever done!
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: esoito on December 16, 2016, 08:09:58 pm
Peter, I've read your explanations several times and thought about what you've written.

For me, maths was never a strength but I can't see anything wrong with your basic premise.

I do know that particular bet works well in your excellent program.

Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Jay on December 17, 2016, 02:23:01 am
Sorry to confuse you I'd included the stake. Admittedly, sometimes I'm one of the 5 out of 3 people who can't do maths.

Ok thanks. But I don't see why you have chosen a streak of 4 losses to bet against when you could just wait for one. According to probability a streak of 2 losses will happen half as often as a single loss, a streak of 3 losses will happen half as often as a streak of 2, and so on. So surely the chances are just as good betting that a single loss won't turn into a double loss, as they are betting that a streak of 4 losses won't turn into a streak of 5?
Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Mathemagician on December 17, 2016, 11:51:42 am
I chose 4 just because it's easier for me to manage.
If you have too many bets you may not have time to place them all.

For example on bet 9 I place 21 bets in total (3 on sixains and 18 on single numbers) covering 2 'even' chances. This is easy enough on an RNG wheel which is manageable at your own pace, but tricky when playing live.(which I prefer)

Bear in mind, I'm not just watching High/Low, Odd/Even & Red/Black I'm observing another 70 or so even chances.
We all know how dangerous just following one even chance (or for that matter just one system)  can be and I suspect we've all seen runs approaching 20 or even more!

Over 1000 spins betting on just 1 sleep could easily give over 1500 bets.
While waiting for 4 could only gives around 150 bets.

In my earlier example I had 10 bets in 17 spins.
It proved profitable after 10 bets but was just as profitable after just 1 bet!

By using the Replay button in RKG I'm able to determine other methods would have fared as below:
(The numbers after the system title  refer to the button numbers in RKG and chapter numbers in my book.)
The numbers played were 30,30,17,35,9,7,9,9,17,19,4,17,5,22,27,4,8,31,

Using other systems from RKG could have proved more profitable

Title: Re: Level Stakes, Even Chance Betting Explained !
Post by: Mathemagician on February 10, 2017, 12:24:43 pm
I chose a streak of 4 losses as if counting all the even chances this would give approximately 1 bet per spin sometimes more.

If I chose 3 there would be over 2 bets for every spin.
This would get far too complicated to manage.

Admittedly these figures are counting the results of 43 even chances (sets of 18 numbers) when most people only follow 6!

RouletteKeyGold keeps track of around 70 even chances so you could wait for every run of 6,7 or even 8 to keep the number of bets manageable.