Excellent case...!!!

Atlantis · February 07, 2014, 09:36:54 PM

Metz win 2-1. The tip is successful.

A.

Atlantis · February 08, 2014, 06:57:38 PM

Today's Tip : MAN CITY to win +1.5 was a LOSER.
Man City 0-0 Norwich
Luckily I did not bet it!

A.

Dragoner · February 09, 2014, 08:27:10 AM

About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.

Atlantis · February 10, 2014, 12:17:14 PM

Well they were right with Inter winning last night 1-0.
Unfortunately the tip was with -1.5 goal so their advised bet was marked on their site as a LOSER.
Again, luckily I did not bet.

Today they give OFI Crete to win and I have followed their advice and taken 10/11 odds.
Fingers crossed.
A.

Bally6354 · February 10, 2014, 01:13:47 PM

Quote from: Dragoner on February 09, 2014, 08:27:10 AM
About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.

Dragoner,

It's a bit like the tipping lines for horseracing. They boast of a 60% strike rate and then the losing run comes as soon as you join! Talk about unlucky!

I suppose it's ok if you can verify the results over several months from a respected source. However there are still problems including obtaining the advertised price if you want a decent bet and not having your bets restricted or account closed should you get lucky and hit that mythical 60% strike rate.

Talk about a minefield!

cheers

Atlantis · February 10, 2014, 05:16:52 PM

OFI Crete win 1-0
The tip is successful!

A.

Atlantis · February 11, 2014, 11:18:50 AM

I have bet their tip today as well.
A.

Atlantis · February 12, 2014, 05:02:33 PM

The tip came unstuck as Layton Orient lost 3-1

Another Loser.
A.

Atlantis · February 12, 2014, 08:23:10 PM

Another loser today as Olympiakos were selected to win but it was a DRAW 1-1.
A.

BrenoGarcia · February 13, 2014, 11:51:26 AM

Only bet on a result is always risky. My style of bet is the vast majority of two results. On betfair you can do so by betting Lay a result. In this game Atromitos x Olympiakos, if you had bet Lay the atromitos, would have won. Despite gave find that this game was risky. Looking at the statistics, gave to realize this, the last two games between them ended in 0 x 0 atromitos and ranks third in the league and playing at home. This betting style of the blog is interesting if you have a big bankroll, but not otherwise pay. They have more than 24 hits lead, but with unit 100. With unit 10, after several months, would not have $ 250.

I sent the print of my earnings last night.

Dragoner · February 14, 2014, 05:44:29 PM

OK... so what's the catch with Henric. At least what's the math behind it.

We have a prediction with odds 2.74. That translates to a 35% chance of winning. We have to pay if we have profit after 4 picks. We risk 50% of our current bankroll at every bet.
That means we get a bankroll multiplier 0.5 if we lose and 1.87 if we win. (winnings are 0.5*1.74=0.87 plus we get to keep our original bankroll)
We need to win at least 3 bets to be profitable, because...
2 wins 2 losses: 1.87^2*0.5^2=0.874225
3 wins 1 loss: 1.87^3*0.5=3.2696015
4 wins: 1.87^4=12.22830961
With a 35% chance of success on each bet, the chance of him having at least 3 winning picks is around 13%, if he really has some skill, that can go up to 15% or maybe 20%. Winning all 4 bets is around 1-2%.
So we have 80-85% chance to end up with losses, but then he doesn't lose anything.
If he happens to be lucky and wins at least 3 of those bets (15-20% chance), everyone will end up with 3.27 times the original bankroll. If that was EUR 200, then the profit is EUR 454, so you are expected to pay 20% of that, EUR 91. Multiplied by 47 members EUR 4267. So that seems to be the catch. He likely won't get anything out of it and people will likely lose, but with a little luck he gets a lot of money without risking anything, but a credibility of an e-mail address.
Of course the remaining 3 picks can have a different probability and odds, that changes the numbers a bit, but doesn't really change the idea behind the scheme. So his aim is probably to get the initial payment with some luck, but eventually the EV will start to kick in.
This is my opinion, consider it a warning, I might be wrong. If I end up being wrong, I will be ashamed of myself. But I am confident people will lose money after just a little while. Likely in the first 4 picks.

BrenoGarcia · February 15, 2014, 11:05:42 AM

Excellent post Dragoner. But one thing, football is not roulette or any other casino game, so 30%, 35% or any other value is a simple odds, and will not depend on luck to achieve these percentages. I imagine that Henric have an study analytical and statistical for his predictions, which maximizes their successes and minimize your mistakes. Only time will tell if the strategy Henric has some value.

Atlantis · February 15, 2014, 11:42:02 AM

French team Istres was a winning tip for them yesterday 1-0
Today they pick in French Ligue team Lorient to WIN.
A.

Dragoner · February 15, 2014, 01:22:24 PM

Luck and probabilities are two different things. Probability applies to sportsbetting just as much as to roulette.
A couple of days/weeks ago we discussed in a different thread, that the long term results will converge towards the true probability of independent trials.
Of course here we have different odds and different probabilities for each pick, but we can say, that if one can achieve 75% win rate, that means the average true probability is around that number, 75%.
The betting market estimates the probabilities.
And those translate into odds and vice versa. 2.5 odds translates to 40% probability.

There is no way the market estimates an outcome at 40% probability (2.5), and Henric can bet at 75% safety. 40% and 75% are just way, way, way too far apart. No prediction is that much more efficient than the market.
But let's just say I am wrong, and he indeed has some psychic powers or whatever that would account for this incredible skill.
He can (more than) triple any investment on average after every 4 picks.
He claims to have 1-2 picks a week, let's be modest and calculate with just 1 per week.

That means 52 picks a year. Let's add a decent summer vacation 20 weeks (I wish I had that).
We are left with only 32 picks a year.
That is still 8*4 so he can triple any investment 8 times a year, that is 3^8=6561. In percentages as profit (-1 for original bankroll) 656000% interest rate a year. And I couldn't be more modest with my calculations, so the actual number (if we can believe his claims, which obviously I can't) is even much much higher than this.
Compare this to any other investment. If he has EUR10 now he is already set for life with that interest rate. These are huge red flags all over the place. How anyone could believe this is beyond me.
If it comes to gambling math is your friend, faith is your enemy.

Atlantis · February 16, 2014, 11:25:45 AM

Another loser yesterday as Lorient lose 3-1...
That's 6 Losers out of the last 9.
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