Hi guys,
I follow a team of tipsters and they have a very professional betting system... And the best is that all their tips are free of charge and verified from Google's server!!! Check here: www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com (http://www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com/)
Hmmm....interesting.
I can't see a catch -- yet.
Perhaps that's simply because there isn't one.
The full results seem to good to be true.
After 49 bets, the average odds is around 1.8, and there are 6 lost bets, 5 void bets and 38 won bets.
I am really skeptical just because how insanely good these results are, but will follow anyway.
Edit:
If the odds were around only 1.2, they'd still be profitable with that win rate. And they are all around 1.8. Come on... this can't be real. Still following though, just to see what is the catch. I am sure there is one, but hoping for the opposite, so I could quit my job. ;)
Quote from: Dragoner on January 26, 2014, 08:35:10 AM
The full results seem to good to be true.
After 49 bets, the average odds is around 1.8, and there are 6 lost bets, 5 void bets and 38 won bets.
I am really skeptical just because how insanely good these results are, but will follow anyway.
Edit:
If the odds were around only 1.2, they'd still be profitable with that win rate. And they are all around 1.8. Come on... this can't be real. Still following though, just to see what is the catch. I am sure there is one, but hoping for the opposite, so I could quit my job. ;)
There is no catch and enjoy it while it lasts. I will give you some clues on why there are no catch. Refer to the location from whr the blogs are made. Refer to the posts in betselection.cc related to sports betting around the time frame when the blog was started. Refer to the way the history of bets are shown. I will leave the rest to your imagination.
Quote from: Eric32 on January 25, 2014, 09:00:57 PM
Hi guys,
I follow a team of tipsters and they have a very professional betting system... And the best is that all their tips are free of charge and verified from Google's server!!! Check here: www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com (http://www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com/)
Looks excellent and thanks for the info. Eric32.
Looking at today's tip PAOK -1.5 AH , I am already encountering some problems,the odds they are betting at on the site ( 1.87 ) are already gone , the best I can see is on Oddscomparisons at 1.75 and when you click on this you get directed to a Bet365 betting slip offering 1.575 with an AH of -1.25 ! Now I'm fairly new to all this so there might be better odds advertised out there and I just don't have the experience to know where to look but I'm just following the links off the VIP bet shop. The other thing is how many accounts do you have to open to make sure you get the best odds , there are what a hundred book makers out there at least , do I need to open all those ? Getting the right odds is crucial as anybody that bets will know.
Not trying to throw a spanner in the works here but it's not that straight forward. I am very grateful for the information provided by Eric32 and anyone else on this thread,would love to hear how others would do this ?
Many thanks in anticipation,
Cheers.
You should be able to find odds around 1.78 now. It is a lot less than 1.87, but if this bet has a similar probability of winning as the earlier tips, then even though it has less value with the lower odds, it is still highly positive EV, which is always good enough for me.
The question is, does it really have similar winning probability, what the earlier results indicate. Which is around 85% (ignoring void bets).
1.78 odds means, the bet has positive expected value if the probability of winning is above 56.18%. Earlier results indicate, that picks have much higher probability, therefore higher value, even at 1.78.
This doesn't mean you should't try to find the best odds possible. Higher odds is always better. But setting up and maintaining lots of accounts is extra work. If you can really consistently win at sportsbetting, then it is worth the extra effort to set up several accounts for the higher profit.
Quote from: Eric32 on January 25, 2014, 09:00:57 PM
Hi guys,
I follow a team of tipsters and they have a very professional betting system... And the best is that all their tips are free of charge and verified from Google's server!!! Check here: www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com (http://www.vipbetshop.blogspot.com/)
thanks for the info man!!!! Seems very professional job..... :thumbsup:
paok 4-1 at 80'!!!!! :cheer:
Today they gave as tip: AH0 Fiorentina
:thumbsup:
Unfortunately Fiorentina tip failed :(
Today I'm glad I followed them with Asteras Tripolis @ 4/5 in Corals
They won away 2-0. :)
A.
Today they have PAOK-OFI, with the pick being PAOK at AH-1, odds 1.6, but you can currently get that bet at 2.0 on Paddy Power.
Not sure if there's a worrying reason for that if the odds have drifted from 1.6 to 2.0?
AH bets don't have draw option. A draw for AH bets returns your stake.
On paddy you can bet on draw. That very likely means a draw will not return your stake. That accounts for the higher odds.
This makes the handicap -1 PAOK bet on paddy equal to an AH-1.5 bet.
Ah right, I think I get you. So a PAOK win 1-0 would usually return stakes? But on PP won't?
I don't have experience with PP, but the draw option there and seeing that other bookies price the AH -1.5 @2, it is more than likely the case.
cheers :thumbsup:
Tip was on the money again. POAK won 5-0.
A.
Having trouble ( again ) getting decent odds on the Metz / Caen game later , best I can see is 1.375 so far,they have 1.72 on the web site. Anyone got any suggestions as to where to go for better odds than 1.375 ?
Much appreciated.
Cheers.
Anywhere. No bookie will give you 1.375.
You should attach screenshot either here, or to me in PM to show me where you see those odds. It just can't be right.
Quote from: klw on February 07, 2014, 09:41:35 AM
Having trouble ( again ) getting decent odds on the Metz / Caen game later , best I can see is 1.375 so far,they have 1.72 on the web site. Anyone got any suggestions as to where to go for better odds than 1.375 ?
Much appreciated.
Cheers.
Hi klw, Dragoner is right, you can get 1.66-1.72ish odds most places (Betfair & Ladbrokes to name 2).
You must be looking at something else (I made the same mistake couple of days ago.)
Hi Dragoner -- Don't have time for screen shots.
I have 2 accounts opened so far , Betfair currently you can back at 2.4 , slightly better than last time and Bet365 2.3 the same as last time.
These are Metz to win AH0 , so if I'm not looking at the right displayed odds am I just unlucky that the 2 accounts I've opened are not particularly generous /
Cheers.
Quote from: monaco on February 07, 2014, 11:15:57 AM
Hi klw, Dragoner is right, you can get 1.66-1.72ish odds most places (Betfair & Ladbrokes to name 2).
You must be looking at something else (I made the same mistake couple of days ago.)
Hi Monaco -- Don't know what I'm doing wrong , didn't think I was that stupid lol . Betfair clicked on French footie , then league 2 , then Metz / Caen and those are the odds currently displayed , am I cracking up here ?
Cheers.
Just looked at Ladbrokes exchange and the current " back " odds are 2.42 . I must be looking in the wrong place ?
Cheers.
They gave AJAX yesterday and they duly won 2-1.
They marked that bet down as loser though because the tip was for them to win with a +1.5 goal diff. which they didn't...
A.
Quote from: klw on February 07, 2014, 11:21:33 AM
These are Metz to win AH0 , so if I'm not looking at the right displayed odds am I just unlucky that the 2 accounts I've opened are not particularly generous /
Yeah, you must be resented to those bookies somehow... :))
Drazen
Klw – I think you're making a similar mistake to the one I made. The straight win market is not the same as the AH0.
Dragoner explained the other day, with the AH market, there is no draw market included, & therefore different odds.
If you go to Betfair & actually bring up the Asian Handicaps market, Metz at AH0 is currently 1.63 as Drazen shows above.
Light bulb has just gone on lol. I'm new to all this Asian handicap stuff , thank you all for your help and patience.
Cheers.
Then this I think might be out of help for you.
All asian handicap stuff as you say, explained :)
http://www.valuepunter.com/asianhandicap-table.htm (http://www.valuepunter.com/asianhandicap-table.htm)
Best of luck
Quote from: Drazen on February 07, 2014, 12:04:56 PM
Then this I think might be out of help for you.
All asian handicap stuff as you say, explained :)
http://www.valuepunter.com/asianhandicap-table.htm (http://www.valuepunter.com/asianhandicap-table.htm)
Best of luck
Thank you Drazen will be helpful I'm sure.
Cheers.
I bet Metz at 13/10.
Fingers crossed!
A.
Metz win 2-1. The tip is successful. :)
A.
Today's Tip : MAN CITY to win +1.5 was a LOSER.
Man City 0-0 Norwich
Luckily I did not bet it!
A.
About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.
Well they were right with Inter winning last night 1-0.
Unfortunately the tip was with -1.5 goal so their advised bet was marked on their site as a LOSER.
Again, luckily I did not bet. :)
Today they give OFI Crete to win and I have followed their advice and taken 10/11 odds.
Fingers crossed.
A.
Quote from: Dragoner on February 09, 2014, 08:27:10 AM
About 2 weeks ago (when we heard about this site) there were 38 wins and 6 losses. That was about 3 months time, from end of October.
Since then we have 5 wins and 3 losses. That's about 2 weeks time. This is a realistic result. 38 wins and 6 losses @1.8 average odds isn't.
Is it a coincidence, that the winrate went down just after we heard about the site? 8 games aren't much, so it may be just a small dip. I would be cautious though. I think this is actually the winrate they can keep up with.
Dragoner,
It's a bit like the tipping lines for horseracing. They boast of a 60% strike rate and then the losing run comes as soon as you join! Talk about unlucky! ;)
I suppose it's ok if you can verify the results over several months from a respected source. However there are still problems including obtaining the advertised price if you want a decent bet and not having your bets restricted or account closed should you get lucky and hit that mythical 60% strike rate.
Talk about a minefield!
cheers
OFI Crete win 1-0
The tip is successful! :)
A.
I have bet their tip today as well.
A.
The tip came unstuck as Layton Orient lost 3-1 :(
Another Loser.
A.
Another loser today as Olympiakos were selected to win but it was a DRAW 1-1.
A.
Only bet on a result is always risky. My style of bet is the vast majority of two results. On betfair you can do so by betting Lay a result. In this game Atromitos x Olympiakos, if you had bet Lay the atromitos, would have won. Despite gave find that this game was risky. Looking at the statistics, gave to realize this, the last two games between them ended in 0 x 0 atromitos and ranks third in the league and playing at home. This betting style of the blog is interesting if you have a big bankroll, but not otherwise pay. They have more than 24 hits lead, but with unit 100. With unit 10, after several months, would not have $ 250.
I sent the print of my earnings last night.
OK... so what's the catch with Henric. At least what's the math behind it.
We have a prediction with odds 2.74. That translates to a 35% chance of winning. We have to pay if we have profit after 4 picks. We risk 50% of our current bankroll at every bet.
That means we get a bankroll multiplier 0.5 if we lose and 1.87 if we win. (winnings are 0.5*1.74=0.87 plus we get to keep our original bankroll)
We need to win at least 3 bets to be profitable, because...
2 wins 2 losses: 1.87^2*0.5^2=0.874225
3 wins 1 loss: 1.87^3*0.5=3.2696015
4 wins: 1.87^4=12.22830961
With a 35% chance of success on each bet, the chance of him having at least 3 winning picks is around 13%, if he really has some skill, that can go up to 15% or maybe 20%. Winning all 4 bets is around 1-2%.
So we have 80-85% chance to end up with losses, but then he doesn't lose anything.
If he happens to be lucky and wins at least 3 of those bets (15-20% chance), everyone will end up with 3.27 times the original bankroll. If that was EUR 200, then the profit is EUR 454, so you are expected to pay 20% of that, EUR 91. Multiplied by 47 members EUR 4267. So that seems to be the catch. He likely won't get anything out of it and people will likely lose, but with a little luck he gets a lot of money without risking anything, but a credibility of an e-mail address.
Of course the remaining 3 picks can have a different probability and odds, that changes the numbers a bit, but doesn't really change the idea behind the scheme. So his aim is probably to get the initial payment with some luck, but eventually the EV will start to kick in.
This is my opinion, consider it a warning, I might be wrong. If I end up being wrong, I will be ashamed of myself. But I am confident people will lose money after just a little while. Likely in the first 4 picks.
Excellent post Dragoner. But one thing, football is not roulette or any other casino game, so 30%, 35% or any other value is a simple odds, and will not depend on luck to achieve these percentages. I imagine that Henric have an study analytical and statistical for his predictions, which maximizes their successes and minimize your mistakes. Only time will tell if the strategy Henric has some value.
French team Istres was a winning tip for them yesterday 1-0
Today they pick in French Ligue team Lorient to WIN.
A.
Luck and probabilities are two different things. Probability applies to sportsbetting just as much as to roulette.
A couple of days/weeks ago we discussed in a different thread, that the long term results will converge towards the true probability of independent trials.
Of course here we have different odds and different probabilities for each pick, but we can say, that if one can achieve 75% win rate, that means the average true probability is around that number, 75%.
The betting market estimates the probabilities.
And those translate into odds and vice versa. 2.5 odds translates to 40% probability.
There is no way the market estimates an outcome at 40% probability (2.5), and Henric can bet at 75% safety. 40% and 75% are just way, way, way too far apart. No prediction is that much more efficient than the market.
But let's just say I am wrong, and he indeed has some psychic powers or whatever that would account for this incredible skill.
He can (more than) triple any investment on average after every 4 picks.
He claims to have 1-2 picks a week, let's be modest and calculate with just 1 per week.
That means 52 picks a year. Let's add a decent summer vacation 20 weeks (I wish I had that).
We are left with only 32 picks a year.
That is still 8*4 so he can triple any investment 8 times a year, that is 3^8=6561. In percentages as profit (-1 for original bankroll) 656000% interest rate a year. And I couldn't be more modest with my calculations, so the actual number (if we can believe his claims, which obviously I can't) is even much much higher than this.
Compare this to any other investment. If he has EUR10 now he is already set for life with that interest rate. These are huge red flags all over the place. How anyone could believe this is beyond me.
If it comes to gambling math is your friend, faith is your enemy.
Another loser yesterday as Lorient lose 3-1...
That's 6 Losers out of the last 9.
A.
After losing match yesterday (Aris - Veria) they stated on the blog that they need a pause from publishing the tips this week. Continue next week.
By the way, what hitrate do you consider as sufficient in sport betting?
Quote from: Martinnng on February 17, 2014, 10:29:33 PM
By the way, what hitrate do you consider as sufficient in sport betting?
Depends on the odds.
hitrate > 1/odds
Lost again today. I really need a break. :( (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)