The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Codehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

The mathematicians on this beloved forum of ours maybe right after all. If horse racing can be reduced to algorithms, Baccarat must be a breeze. US$100,000,000 a year.

Always always give space to those who talk about things we don't know

You are absolutely correct. 

Do it, show it, write about it and tell it all. 

Or, keep it to yourself, grow old and let nobody know.

Quote from: Mike on April 29, 2018, 12:59:13 PM
Lungyeh,

If you mean staying disciplined then of course it's important and necessary, but discipline alone is not sufficient to win. Neither is money management. Your bet selection must have an edge otherwise you're just relying on variance ( = "luck").

The mathematics isn't difficult. In a negative expectation game like Baccarat you don't get paid fairly when you win, therefore in order to make up for this you must win more hands than probability dictates. However, this can't be done in an essentially random game like baccarat where you can't predict what's going to come out next with any reliability. You certainly can't get an edge by looking at patterns and what's just happened because all patterns are equally likely and past hands don't influence future hands. If follows from this this that there are no "opportunities" to be had. A genuine opportunity can only arise if the probabilities of an event change in your favor and represent "value" (meaning that the probability of a win overcomes the unfair payout).

Since baccarat is like a coin flip in might be easier to understand the principle in those terms. Suppose we agree to play a game of "flip the coin". We take it in turns to call and when I win you pay me $1, but when you win I only pay you 95 cents. Since the probability of either H or T is 0.5, you can surely see that eventually you are going to lose money, UNLESS you can find a way to win more often than 50% of the time (in order to overcome the unfair payout).

How much better than 50% does your probability of winning need to be? If the probability of winning is 50% then your expectation looks like this:

probability of winning * win amount - probability of losing * loss amount

which is 0.5*$0.95 - 0.5*$1 = -$1/40 or 2.5 cents loss per game on average.

Now suppose your probability of winning is not 0.5 but "x". Your probability of losing must therefore be "(1 - x)". With a little algebra you can work out what "x" must be in order to do better than break even.

x*$0.95 - (1 - x)*$1 > 0

$0.95*x - $1 + $1*x > 0

$1.95*x > $1

x > $1/$1.95

x > 20/39 = 0.513

So your probability of winning needs to be at least 51.3% in order to overcome the unfair payout.
Can this be achieved? Actually in coin flipping there is good evidence that the side which shows can be controlled to a certain extent by the flipping technique and the "initial conditions" (the side which is up before you flip), but for casino games it's not so easy.

Unless you can find a way to increase your winning percentage you're just gambling, in which case all I can say is : good luck!

You are correct but only 50%, so why not be 100% smart rather than half-smart?!
What I mean is that you know well what's the HE, you can even present it with mathematical formulas to us and we're great-full since nobody was aware of it! 


What you seem to neglect due to ignorance or purpose, it doesn't really matter, is that HE is not the only force at work during the results' distribution process, randomness means deviations and deviations eclipse HE, period.


But in case you still don't get it I'm going to break it down in quarters for you;
Let's assume for the example's sake that after 1,000 outcomes player A bets constantly option 1 and player B bets constantly option 2, player A won 563 times and lost 437, meanwhile, player B won 413 times and lost 587.
Player A won 126 times more, hence the net profit cause of the deviation.
While player B lost 174 times more, thus the loss cause of the DEVIATION and NOT the HE.
Speaking about HE, the casino took the loss of 174 from player B and paid 126 to player A, the remaining casino profit was subject to ongoing expenses and taxation for running the business.


The aftermath is that if something could lose then something else could win, you cannot have one without the other, period.
HE is a reality, but one which DOES NOT prevent someone to be long term winner.
Besides, the HE is based on the expectation of that every event has, at some point, get near its probability.


I dare to make a step further and declare that if the whole HE theory is being established on the law of large numbers, then we can safely assume that along the course of a significant total of outcomes, their probability will be confirmed.
So what does this means?
It simply means that if the casino can be sure for their profit because they are paying less, this lesser profit has to be so much less in comparison with the frequency of wins in order to have a significant impact on the money wagered.
But money wagered and/or paid don't generate decisions/results, but decisions/selections can make money!


If we would expand our event's horizon from 1 session to many sessions as a whole, then we could follow the certainty of the law of large numbers.
Casinos EXPECT this mathematical theory to be confirmed sooner or later, otherwise the lesser payouts, what they call HE, would be rendered obsolete!
In the knowledge of that as a de facto expectation we could establish such Money Management which would overcome the HE when eventually the law of large numbers will be confirmed.
What kills the BankRolls are NOT the HE, but the variance and the shortsighted approaches which account for 99.99% of all cases.
HE could be considered just as taxation on profits, at the end we are paying for our own mistakes rather than something which is beyond everyone's grasp!


The sophisticated money management should be scaled 1 to 1,000 bets/outcomes, it will not attempt to predict in the short term, but to capitalize on the long term!

Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

Quote from: Lungyeh on May 06, 2018, 03:58:15 AM
Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

You are 1,000 % correct!   Math, engineers, scientists, grest doctors and attorneys that actually devote their lives and to research and application of their professions are usually thankless and underpaid choosen fields for the ones that bring about needed changes and advancements that help mankind! 

However,  with definitely applying mathematical and models to a game such as baccarat, the casino will always win as our bankrolls will never ever ever ever ever, never ever outlast our own greedy and desirous minds!!!  Every once and awhile a Don Johnson comes along and does what he did at The Tropicana in Atlantic City a few years ago,  and that $15,000.000.00 loss to The Trop probably made their bottom line profits hundreds of times that very same amount from thousands of attempts to replicate that!!!  There was a relatively a new owner of the casino when that happened and the limits at the tables were an unprecedented $50,000.00 A HAND FOR WALK IN NO FRONT MONEY PLAYERS!!! Even higher than anywhere in Las Vegas whuch us $25,000.00 a hand at only a few places. If you look it up about the Tropicana at that time a few years back there are interviews with the owner and he made a superb and phenomenal sense in what he said how he allowed that to happen and the revenue and the exposure with advertising and marketing it has brought his Casino. So who was actually the winner, was it the Tropicana or was it Don Johnson and the baccarat public??  End of story on that one, because I see no t one downside to the casino, even though they lost 15 million dollars they won thousands of millions of dollars from players exactly like that as I mentioned and they're wild thoughts that they can replicate that easily with 50,000 a hundred thousand or even a few hundred thousand dollar bank roll. I know several of the hosts that are at that casino that went there just before that happened from when Bally's Grand closed down next door in Atlantic City and they laugh everyday about that situation and tons of players that have repeatedly and consecutively tried..

Anyway you get my drift.  However stories like that which are actual events such as the horse racing story you just mentioned in international news gives such Fuel and Fire to people that want to argue and cause drama, such as those on this message board as well as every other message board, that all of their mathematical and statistical discoveries and rehashing of plain and simple mathematics and statistical facts, backup and support every single thing that they've ever stated on these message boards. Which is true, however it cannot for 99.99 percent-plus of everybody that goes to the baccarat table. Me and you and everyone else will lose their money in the attempt to make a greater amount of money that we will never ever be able to do. And then you have the people that want to poke fun, twist turn and be a message board hero, for their classroom applications which are 100% true and there is your catch 22.

So when I go to the casino now in the last 15  plus years and I start to hit it I smack it and pounce on it, the way that I've described and we have done extremely well and when I lose I lose very small amounts unlike what my close friend H-Money has the past month or so did,   I'll lose $500 to $1,500 continuously but when we win we win $5,000 to $40,000 plus, very often and as I've stated with money management and everything else that I've described in great detail and great time with here.  It is also and I stress also, 1000% true and my wins are far far greater than what my small losses are because I do not do what H-Money did and likewise 99.99 percent of everyone else does at the baccarat tables. Just say for whatever reason I've discovered what I did and it definitely works. And I don't care if the bottom line is I sprinkled magical dust on them cards and peaked and peeled at them. and I got lucky, it does not matter not one bit because a win is a win and it doesn't matter if Voodoo or a dream or luck or whatever it is one bit, that the game that night, I still cashed out what I did with them pictures and we still had a blast and like I said the bottom line is, it out does the small amount of losses if you can hold and maintain your emotional and psychological state of mind and realize what it takes to win the game. And what it takes to win this game is exactly the way that I've outlined it, showed pictures and described. That  doesn't mean that I'm any smarter than or any better than that of the mathematical or statistical teachers and professors and extremely intelligent people that recite all the mathematical and  statistical facts, but they are only correct in the long run and in the classroom, it doesn't apply to the casino. At least for the player with any kind of obtainable and realistic bankroll in order to apply it to do what Don Johnson did and other phenomenal and lucky gamblers have done. Some people get that lucky break and get to apply their bankroll and they're prevailing the same way that certain actors have in the movie Industries and became internationally famous and apply their talents that millions of other people have just as well,  that just could not find the proper opportunity or other people to nurture them and get them into the spotlight in order to be a success such as Bruce Willis, Clint Eastwood, Al Pacino Robert De Niro Woody Harrelson and many many others actors have successfully accomplished.  A Perfect Analogy.

Just like what we did the other night and I've posted a few pictures which are extremely hard to take and only acceptable at a few casinos when they really know the players and you don't abuse the privilege of snapping a picture that they see of the table without faces in it especially the employees. And if I continue to sit there and do what I did the people that caused the drama on these message boards would be exactly right, however I do not do that any longer. I take the money and I do the most important thing that I've ever discovered and I've tried to let everyone know and it's simply called, resetting and refreshing. End of story once again. And that is the way you can profit extremely well at baccarat. Thank you, goodnight.

Quote from: Lungyeh on May 06, 2018, 03:58:15 AM
Were you addressing your article to me? I was just posting a Bloomberg article about a small group of guys using mathematics to make @1 billion in betting on hirse racing. And I went on to suggest if mathematics can be used to make money on the 4-legged hoofed animal, using mathematical formulations to win on Baccarat should not be beyond imagination.

Having said befor that mathematicians are at the top of the intelligence food chain the article seems to reinforce the perception that there is a mathematical way to prevail at baccarat and perhaps the one school of thought should give more credence to the mathematical way. Except that the pro mathematics school in this forum seems to argue vaguely on HE and the whys and wherefores.

I've quoted Mike's post, not yours.
By the way, I'm not interested in 4 legs gamble because there are more parameters out of the punter's reach, beyond the gambler's control rather than Baccarat.
From my perspective, Baccarat cannot become any simpler, it's the simplest of all gambling forms and simple is good for application of theories.

Quote from: Lungyeh on April 29, 2018, 12:28:17 AM


The defining factor that make any system suitable only to an individual to a smaller or larger extent is the human emotions. Perhaps the mathematicians can formulate all human emotions but for sure even given a certain exact trend then prevailing, humans may react differently because the players at the table are different, the dealer is different, the player just quarrelled with the wife, the player just had a fantastic 50 shades of grey BDSM sex etc etc.



My 2 cents worth of opinion.

Bump.  Accurate.  Great thoughts deduced down for the baccarat player whom seldom even takes time to think.  Etc., etc.

No need to think.

Average distributions will take care of it.

People who make a living at baccarat want to wager very few hands.

as.

I have witnessed numerous people win hundreds of thousands of dollars in short periods of sections like 8 to 15 hands and I've seen those same people almost every one of them give it back over 1 to 4  shoes, because they couldn't repeat what they just did. 

I've seen it way too much!

Quote from: alrelax on September 06, 2018, 12:07:57 AM
I have witnessed numerous people win hundreds of thousands of dollars in short periods of sections like 8 to 15 hands and I've seen those same people almost every one of them give it back over 1 to 4  shoes, because they couldn't repeat what they just did. 

I've seen it way too much!

Exactly.

You have to win very few to stay alive at this game, imo.

That's why casinos entice players to wager every hand.

as.

When I was younger especially in Atlantic City and up in Connecticut had no idea what the casino hosts were doing in actuality. But they got that 4 hour minimum with those average bets for the room food beverage and incidentals for the higher line players and there's a reason why they do that!! 

But there's a lot more than that, they do. Of course we know all that now many years later but what they do is very good and they're very good at how they keep players there.

Quote from: alrelax on September 06, 2018, 12:39:30 AM
When I was younger especially in Atlantic City and up in Connecticut had no idea what the casino hosts were doing in actuality. But they got that 4 hour minimum with those average bets for the room food beverage and incidentals for the higher line players and there's a reason why they do that!! 

But there's a lot more than that, they do. Of course we know all that now many years later but what they do is very good and they're very good at how they keep players there.

Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as. 

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2018, 02:14:16 AM
Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as.

Touching..................seriously. 

You know when I win at bac and win something good, repeatedly running through my head is the song by Creedence Clearwater Revival, "Run Through The Jungle"......................

Only 6 sentences with the same 3 line chorus in the whole song. 

Simple, that is it.  Listen to it.  When I win a few F-7's, P-8's a 3 card 8/9 and some nice Bankers or Players, all in a short section, that darn song is clearly in my head, almost word for word!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwHqi-qOCZg

Grab it and run to the cashier's cage is the bottom line.

The rest fits right in, pretty much. 

Don't go walkin slow....

Better run through the 'casino'....

I heard a rumblin, callin to my name.......

Let the people know my wisedom......(to cash out, lol)

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2018, 02:14:16 AM
Yeah!

You kept stressing about the importance to play wisely and actually and without any doubt this site is the only one to provide meaningful insights about how to reduce the house edge, to say the least.


as.

Thanks, As

I have attempted to keep the this site geared towards productively discussing wagering, the games, casinos and in general gambling. I would like to remain neutral and positive and leave the negativity and the demeaning, chastising and humiliation type of statement out of it all. The continual one liners with drama driven motives to upset and harass anyone on the board.  We don;t need it, let them gather at the other more consumerish website and fight, argue and demean each other, like WoV, VMB, GF, etc., etc. 

Sometimes it is not the sheer number of members or viewers that add the legitimacy or the real valuable info and data.  Same as in other businesses as well. 

I do have plans and we are working on them.  Interactive games for practice, discussion, competition, etc.  Some type of live gaming.  Some type of news desk such as the old Johnny Carson or David Letterman style shows.  Monologue, interviews, discussion, entertainment of some type and a closing segment.  A few other things.  Just more interaction and involvement, rather than post, wait and type, defend and eventually the thread dies off.