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Topic: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1  (Read 11382 times)

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Offline Jimske

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Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« Reply #105 on: November 28, 2018, 04:34:34 PM »
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  • For example, we know for sure that somewhere banker will produce a streak or a given amount of streaks. There's no way that a given shoe will produce just one B streak, but we surely know that very rare given shoes won't produce a P single.
    The answer is easy: streaks consume a well more room than singles but B side is more prone to produce streaks as it's more likely to happen.
    Right, very rare.  But lesser productions of P single not so rare and is why I use the 1's as a key to help determine the bias.  We can use a bet placement that exploits this.  Any positive expectation (weighted count, regression to mean, etc.) has escaped me.  Enter the "educated" guess.

    Quote
    Say we want to bet a very complicated and hyper selected strategic plan oriented to lose only when a shoe won't present a P single AND at least two B streaks.
    We won't lose by 1 billion accuracy.
    Assuming you or anyone has identified such it no doubt requires a potential long wait.  Waiting even for Sputnik's Ecart still produces the problem with variance due to the low odds.  We'd have to be in the neighborhood of 75%+ prediction to make it practical.

    Do you disagree?


    Offline Sputnik

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #106 on: November 29, 2018, 04:21:14 AM »
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  • Jimske you have to understand that I have not developed or made a weighted count system, I only show examples of regression.
    I want to explore this territory and see if I can create a weighted count system and share it.
    But nothing is complete or under construction.

    Cheers

     

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #107 on: November 29, 2018, 11:05:46 AM »
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  • Jimske you have to understand that I have not developed or made a weighted count system, I only show examples of regression.
    I want to explore this territory and see if I can create a weighted count system and share it.
    But nothing is complete or under construction.

    Cheers
    I know.  Just using that as an example.  In BJ we can identify SD by keeping track of cards to get upwards of a 2% advantage.  And depending on the rules we only get a pos EV something like 8 hands per 100.  Assymbac has suggested we can get a positive EV based on certain card depletion which will cause a third card draw and give us an advantage.  If so I'm guessing that the advantage will be far less than in BJ.

    OTH, looking at patterns or series seems like a good way to identify future outcomes through SD.  But it seems to me getting an advantage within one shoe an impossible task.

    I've always wondered if an individual shoe bias can be correlated with the texture of the cards.  So, for instance instead of individual P and B outcomes we may find greater abundance on one side based on card depletion.  ??

    J

    sidebar:  looks like I'm prohibited from posting on the other site.  Can't even contact admin.  Says:
     "(You have insufficient privileges to reply here.)"  Anybody else having same problem?


    Offline Dr. Mabuse

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #108 on: November 29, 2018, 05:25:31 PM »
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  • "insufficient privileges to reply ". Where is that ?



    Dr.  Mabuse
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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #109 on: November 30, 2018, 05:26:37 PM »
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  • Right, very rare.  But lesser productions of P single not so rare and is why I use the 1's as a key to help determine the bias.  We can use a bet placement that exploits this.  Any positive expectation (weighted count, regression to mean, etc.) has escaped me.  Enter the "educated" guess.
    Assuming you or anyone has identified such it no doubt requires a potential long wait.  Waiting even for Sputnik's Ecart still produces the problem with variance due to the low odds.  We'd have to be in the neighborhood of 75%+ prediction to make it practical.

    Do you disagree?

    Nope, you are completely right.

    We need some time to consistently win in the same way casinos need time to let the math edge or variance destroying players' bankrolls.
    Only recreational players try to win every or almost every single situation dealt and that's not possible.

    Imo, time and "space" are the two most important factors when playing baccarat.
    Time allows math and variance to show up and space is the physical factor that works by time frames.

    Spaces can be reduced by bankroll managements, nothing we can do about time but waiting.

    as. 
    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't

    Online AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #110 on: December 05, 2018, 05:28:10 PM »
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  • There's an interesting line of thought suggesting that the first half or 2/3 results of a shoe will slightly affect the probability of the remaining outcomes.

    More later.

    as.

     



     


       



     
    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't

    Online alrelax

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #111 on: December 05, 2018, 05:52:23 PM »
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  • There's an interesting line of thought suggesting that the first half or 2/3 results of a shoe will slightly affect the probability of the remaining outcomes.

    More later.

    as.
     

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    Online AsymBacGuy

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #112 on: December 05, 2018, 10:52:39 PM »
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  • That's nice Al! :-)

    Every bac player should think about this.

    An almost 50/50 slight dependent distribution will form certain unidirectional results for some time.
    Not every shoe will be so polarized but most part of shoes will present such feature.

    Of course B/P gaps or other too variance affected outcomes won't give us many of hint.

    Say we have won (or lost) 5-6 flat betting units so far (half or more of the actual shoe).

    Now, are we going to bet toward the deviations happened so far or to get a kind of balancement situations?

    Mathematicians will say it doesn't matter which kind of direction we'll take.
    But they are wrong.

    Since we cannot guess hands, the more we'll play the higher will be the probability to get opposite results already gotten, thus taking an unidrectional strategy sooner or later (I'm speaking about 4-5 shoes not more) will surely fail.

    After 5 shoes played, the probability to be ahead is just 20% or so.
    Thus, after 5 shoes, the probability to get some opposite results is very high at some point.

    Guess what?

    Balancements are going to appear when deviation situations will cross a 2 or 3 cutoff point.
    Nobody wants to play a 2 or 3 or higher negative proposition hoping to get a single positive outcome, therefore a smart player would know when things are going to change.

    I mean that it's not wrong to follow a positive pattern providing to have secured a profit, but it's highely recommended to stop the betting toward positive deviations whenever a 2 or 3 negative step is going to show up.

    More on that tomorrow

    as.
     



       



     





     




    Winners are simply willing to do what losers won't

    Offline Jimske

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    Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
    « Reply #113 on: December 06, 2018, 02:26:44 PM »
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  • Waves!