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[malcop]

Hi Malcop,


Are you working from Simple Trend Catcher?  I've found by using that and another simple strategy of FTL for 5 then OTL for 5 prove to provide a nice consistent jingle in the pocket at the end of the day.


Hope you are well.


WG

Hi Wally,


I'm fine thank you.


Simple Trend Catcher has served me well, but the current projects I'm working on have nothing to do with Simple Trend Catcher.




malcop

[Wally Gator]

Very interested to hear more in the future .... many thanks for sharing.

[BaccaratLabs]

[size=78%]1  What are your thoughts and opinions  about these two products in particular? [/size][size=78%] [/size]
2  Are they riddled with false claims simply to sell stuff to the gullible? 3  Or does each really offer something worth pursuing further?

Flat betting can work if you do it the right way. There are 3 primary things that you need to be aware of when flat betting:


1. Bet Timing - This is how often you will be betting. Face it, in the long-run you are probably a loser. Everyone is. The more that you subject yourself to the casino, the more likely it is that you will lose. Therefore, when flat betting, it's important that you time your bets properly, and shoot for the hire strike rate on the trends that are actually appearing in the shoe.


2. Risk Management - This sort of piggy backs off of bet timing. Gambling is a risk. I don't care if you are card counting or playing that NOR system on the BTC forum. You are subjected to risk, no matter what you do. There is no way in hell that you can remove the risk..unless you cheat. And I don't suggest cheating.


So the best option that you have is risk management. You can't remove the risk, but what can you do to manage it? Play smarter, be patient, time your bets, bet less than 10% of the shoe..


3. Money Management - With flat betting it's even more important that you manage your money. It can be pretty hard to walk away from a shoe when you are +2 units, playing at $15 per hand.  But if you play at $100 a hand, a 2 unit win = $200 isn't so bad. If  you're playing $500 per hand, then a $1k net profit isn't so bad.


When flat betting, it's very important that you manage your money. Set your trailing stop wins, stop losses, and so on.




4. The x-factor - You.


I usually say that there are 3 keys to the game (see above), but there is also a 4th, and that's you.


The funny thing about flat betting is that people think it's easy compared to playing a progression. Anybody can sit there and throw piles of chips onto the table using a positive or negative progression. Sometimes it takes balls, but it isn't hard.


Flat betting is actually really hard because it's a test of your patience. The other day I was flat betting and I had a 90% strike rate, I finished around +18 in one shoe. But then the very next shoe I only bet 7 hands and I finished +1. If you can't master your emotions then there is no way that you will ever be successful flat betting, at least in the long run.


Just figured I would throw my 2 cents in..

[esoito]

And a very worthwhile 2c it was, too.

A most informative and thoughtful first post. 

Welcome.

[Johno-Egalite]

This thread from 6 years ago, is worth resurrecting, given the number of self proclaimed "anti-negative progression, Professional Players" which are supposedly abundant on another forum.

One such player had the misfortune to make such a bold claim on the respected WoV site.  A site which is has an abundance of renowned math-wizzes. 

Besides being ridiculed, this response debunks such nonsense.

I'll do some quick math. But you won't like my conclusions.

The outcome of a single session of ~75 hands (call it 76 so my numbers are even) is binomially distributed, and I'll use a probability of winning of 0.495 (which is generous, your true p is a little less depending on your banker/player mix).

Odds of a single session finishing +12 or better is 6.8%. The odds of -2 or better is 54.6%. But the odds of doing -2 or better in 3000+ sessions (10 years, almost every day) is just ridiculous. I couldn't get Excel to display the value, it is so small. Even doing this for 1 year (365 sessions) the odds are 1 followed by 96 zeros to the 1. A freaking Google to 1. For one year. And you said 10 years.

I have never seen such a small number in all the math I have ever done, for this site or anywhere. Ever.

This would be theoretically possible if you won about 2/3 of your hands. But you can't, so I must conclude that your story is not believable.

.

As somebody who has studied this game in-depth for over 15+ years, I learnt very early in the piece, Baccarat is indeed more about MM, than bet selection. Therefore have studied negative, positive and flat betting.  The latter was and always be, a complete non-starter. 

To suggest otherwise is a complete fallacy and it makes me question the intent of anybody making such a bold claim. 

[james]

Based on your study which negative or positive betting is a starter?

[Jimske]

Based on your study which negative or positive betting is a starter?

I'll put my 2 cents n having studied a lot of progs and play both a neg and pos prog.  The short answer is it doesn't matter.  None are better than another.  It al depends on your risk tolerance, available bankroll and table limits.  But which ever you choose you are going to have to modify it in order to reduce escalation of bet sizes.  As you escalate commission will become a big factor so don't ignore commission.

Any of the cancellation progs such as LaBouchere (or its derivatives) are easier to manage while D'Alembert (or its derivatives) tends to put you in the stratosphere.  Oscar's Grind is a good safe starting point as well as Guetting for pos progs. 

As a practical matter none will win unless you can win more hands than lose after paying the juice.

[Johno-Egalite]

I have dabbled with Parleys, I found them utterly frustrating, to win a bet then give back that profit due to losing the next bet. Ditto part parleys, or reverse Martingale, Contra D'Alembert (the latter two I have never used).   

I've used deep negative progressions, which are not for everybody, depends on your personality and risk aversion.

After many years of playing this game, you have to break it down to the basics, especially after being wiped out!!

Identify the issue, you lost your bankroll because of what?  Because you chose the wrong side to bet? What can you do about that? In reality NOTHING, the game is what it is...

So what happens when you lose 4 or more, win a single bet, lose 4 or 5, win a single bet, and lose another 4 or 5.  It happens, if you played another way, it fixes that shoe, but breaks another.  This what the game is.

All negative progressions that you find on the internet have the player betting too much in these or similar situations. For example, the Fibonacci, The D'Alembert, Z-method, Labouchere, 31 system, 2-5 system, Martingale and the list goes on and on.   

When you accept that there is little you can do about avoiding more losses than winners, you need IMO to design a betting option that can withstand such runs. There are two ways to handle these, one I will share, the other is propriety.

One which should be commonly know is STAR, basically a series of flat bets, followed by a Fibonacci, however it could be followed by a Labouchere, also the pre-progression stage could be extended to whatever you like.  You can read all about STAR and it's variations on the GamblersGlen site (this site has malware, which doesn't bother me, I scan my PC afterwards). In the Baccarat section there is a thread called "The Sequel to Elongated Star, the mildest progression you will ever need".

I will post the contents, in another post.

I decided after reading everything there is about progressions, that some late century mathematician shouldn't be telling me what to do with my money, that after X losses I need to x amount.

So I designed my own, based loosely on a series of Labouchere's which IMO is the most manipulable betting option, I'm sure VLS will agree, as he once said the exact same thing.  Quote, Don't let a single losing run consume your bankroll. How I do things, is personal, yes it is a grind, but generally safe.



Just returning to this STAR option. Here is a consideration for the board.

Grab a bunch of the most choppy shoes you have.   

Take a stack of 10 low value chips (table minimum!) say $5 or $10, play the shoes out betting FLD (follow the last), anytime your 10U chip stack goes beyond 10u, place any excess into your other pile of chips.

Because you chose "choppy" shoes, you should lose all of your 10 stack ($50 or $100).

Now you switch to betting either, $25, $50 or $100 per hand to recoup plus add in a profit, and see w hard it is to bust your bankroll.

You have two options to recoup, a Fibonacci or a Labouchere (Labby)

So if you bet $5 initially, you could write 1-1-1 and use a Labby valued at $25, or write 1-1-1-1.

$10, write 1-1-1-1-1-1, or simply use a Fibonacci with a goal target of winning 6 units, or even 3 units if you switch to betting $50 per hand, or 1 unit of you switch to betting $100 chips.  I deliberately said chose choppy shoes, because choppy shoes don't stay choppy.

You have lots of options, Labby v's Fibo, $25, $50, $100, but do include profit. BTW, as you initial 10 chip stack goes up and down, you'll die of boredom, maybe.  But it's better than losing, no need to think about, "what side do I bet next", just plough straight though the shoe, not all shoes be like this, so you will make money.  The same could be applied to the bet selection DBL. When it comes to YOUR money at the table, you want options, not blindly following some paper you read on the internet..





 

[Johno-Egalite]

Here is a thread taken from Gamblerglen, posted back in 2008, as relevant now, as it was then.

The brilliantly conceived STAR and its many derivatives.
In a nut-shell is a delayed Fibonacci.

First off, this is my understanding of Star, or more importantly the
way I implemented it at the tables.

Flat bet five times, then when you have lost these five units,
bet five times this amount using a Fibonacci progression once you hit
the progression stage..

Therefore it would run something like this,

$25-$25-$25-$25-$25- then $125 - $200 - $325 etc

Or

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10- then $50 then either $100 if using $50 units, or
$75 if using $25 units. Starting at level 1 and level 2 of the
Fibonacci. Consisting of a pre-progression and progression stage.


So what are our options to stretch this a little, squeezing a little
more leeway where making wrong decisions is not costing a great deal.
A stress free approach to playing when in the pre-stage.

Rather than trying to recoup the five lost bets in one bet, work the
units backs.

Starting with a base bet of $10 (for US and Australian playing
conditions), the table min in Auckland NZ is $15.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = $70 now you change to playing $25 units
with a goal target of three, once cleared will produce a $5 profit,
less commissions, any half price payouts (punto 2000) are ignored.

The same approach can be taken for the $25 min tables as they are in Canada.

$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 then 3 units @ $50
or
$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25-$25 then 4units at @ $50 or 2 units @ $10
0

Now lets consider UK playing conditions, most tables are ?5 min,
fantastic for adding depth to STAR.

?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5 for a total of ?70, you have many ways to play your progression stage depending on your comfort zone.

Switch to ?10 units, the goal target would be 4
Switch to $25 units, the goal target would be 3

However you can expand all options further.

Let?s take the UK tables.

?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5 = 10 step pre-progression stage = ?50

?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5-?5 = 20 step
pre-progression stage = ?100

There is no need to go from playing ?5 units to ?100 units.
You simply can set a goal of 4 x ?25 or 2 x ?50.

It all depends on the players bankroll, what they feel comfortable betting.
If you can?t see yourself betting 5 x ?50, then don?t play ?50 units.

The same applies to the $10 minimum tables.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 = $100 you can cut this off
anywhere you like, you can even construct it so the progression stage
shows a little profit to compensate for the 5% Banker commission penalty.

You have the option of switching to $25, $50 or $100 units.

It doesn?t take a rocket scientist to see how it would be possible to construct a 40 step pre-progression stage if you wanted to.
Obviously this is easier on the 5 minimum tables, the progression stage doesn?t not have to cost the earth.


In case you are wondering, no I haven?t forgotten the option of switching to a Labouchere for the back end. This would ease some of the pressure playing the bigger unit size, is more manipulative but comes with a higher win ratio.

Lets say $25 minimum tables, and you have decided to use an 8 stage pre-progression stage for a total cost of $200, and you have decided to use $50 unit value for the progression stage, as you don?t fancy betting stacks of blacks.

You eventually lose those 8 green chips. Using a normal Fibonacci
you would be expect to make a first recovery bet of $50, then $100 then $150, $250, $400, $650 etc.
Good job you decided to use $50 units, as betting blacks the bets could get quite high.

Rather than do all this, you are going to take the Labby approach.
You need to recoup $200 so you construct a string consisting of;

1-1-1-1 (each 1 = $50), ok if you are thinking, I need to bet $100 th
en $150, $200 given a series of losses. Well not really, you can
build a bit of cushion into it.

Let?s bet $50, if you win the string will go.

1-1-1

If you lose the string goes;

1-1-1-1-1

You decide when you have stretched your progression stage enough,
then commence to play as you would like a normal Labby.

The same principals apply to the lower value amounts.

$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10-$10 then construct a Labby
string of 1-1-1-1 (1=$25)

Engage your Labby tactics as you please.

Suffice to say, I do use STAR today if I am forced for whatever reason, into betting every hand and need to keep the shoe moving.  Shame about virus warning on GG, one of the last bastions of gambling sites that is still around. Once I bust 7 units, i simply write 2-2-2-2-2 and then set about resolving that.

[Sputnik]

This reminds me of the Carch variant of the Star progression.

[Johno-Egalite]

This reminds me of the Carch variant of the Star progression.

Carcsh wasn't a variation of STAR, rather a variation of the Z-method (sure-win / rambler)

This is the progression and procedure:

1 - win & parlay
1 - win & parlay
2 - win & repeat the same bet
2 - win & parlay
4 - win & repeat the same bet
4 - win & parlay
8 - win & repeat the same bet
8 - win & parlay
16 - win & repeat the same bet
16 - win & parlay
32 - win & repeat the same bet
32 - win & parlay

[james]

I'll put my 2 cents n having studied a lot of progs and play both a neg and pos prog.  The short answer is it doesn't matter.  None are better than another.  It al depends on your risk tolerance, available bankroll and table limits.  But which ever you choose you are going to have to modify it in order to reduce escalation of bet sizes.  As you escalate commission will become a big factor so don't ignore commission.

Any of the cancellation progs such as LaBouchere (or its derivatives) are easier to manage while D'Alembert (or its derivatives) tends to put you in the stratosphere.  Oscar's Grind is a good safe starting point as well as Guetting for pos progs. 

As a practical matter none will win unless you can win more hands than lose after paying the juice.

Mathematically if you can not win flat betting, you can not win with progressions negative or positive.

[alrelax]

Any type of bet can win or lose.

However, I get confused at times here.  I think many wager consecutively and repeatedly no matter what is happening, counting on their end point after a number of wagers to be ahead and profit.  Based upon wagering 25 or 50 or 100 times in blanket succession, etc.

[Jimske]

Correct.  I think most people get that part. There's a lot of subjective decision making involved in winning if you lose more hands than you win. I think there's very few people who flat bet. And those that do have not reported any meaningful statistics to corroborate their statements. I have documented by keeping track of nearly 4,000 live bets in the casino and have achieved at 53% strike rate. When you hear about players betting two or three hands a shoe you got to ask yourself how many bets have they made that would be statistically significant? They don't say of course.

[Jimske]

Any type of bet can win or lose.

However, I get confused at times here.  I think many wager consecutively and repeatedly no matter what is happening, counting on their end point after a number of wagers to be ahead and profit.  Based upon wagering 25 or 50 or 100 times in blanket succession, etc.

Mostly Asians where I play.  And they're either following the roads, usually just two, or else following someone else on the table. But in casinos where there's a lot of anglo's I noticed they basically just look at the scoreboard and try to guess what's predominant from the past history. I think most have some rudimentary betting strategy but they're mostly just gamblers. You got to have a reason to make a bet. I bet most hands in the shoe and I have a reason for betting every hand.

So far Sputnik and Luigi are the only ones who have explain a bet selection. I'm still waiting for you, Glen, to explain what you bet and why you made that bet. This is your site and you post the most about the game but for some reason you avoid talking about actual betselection. Your choice.