The sponsorship idea was good.
But before starting any sponsorship you probably need some technical "supervisors" carefully reading the material.

There are many competent and prepared people here.

And of course the least thing anyone wants to hear is kind of "holy grail" stuff as it simply doesn't exist.

as.

 

Lol. Great contribute, Al!

as.

Nice to read this!

I have always sayed that roulette players are the best gambling researchers providing a lot of useful thoughts and inputs that most part of bj or baccarat experts cannot dream of.

I'm proud to be a member of this site.

as.

Confirmed.

Esoito, a genuine welcome back!

as.

Bellagio: yes, they have a $25 or $50 minimum table just outside the HS room.
No fun there, you can't squeeze the cards and due to the low action you have to bet almost every hand. A sure recipe for disaster.
The Bellagio hs room is quite appealing instead. Once to check their drinks offer I ordered a very rare Oban whiskey. I got it and waitress showed me the bottle. Here the service is excellent and employees but one stupid asian female are terrific.

I don't like to play at Caesar's Palace. The only remarkable thing hs stakes room has is the marvelous bathroom. For ther rest I found there the most stupid players the baccarat universe knows.

Rio is a good place to play bac, six live tables plus the Theater. Good drinks service, decent comps. Many L.A. players like to play there and for unkwown reasons I almost always emphatized with many of them.

Gold Coast and Palace Station at a lesser degree collect people that I name "low end bac players". No smiles, no empathazing even after a collective long string of positive bets. Screw you, guys.

Palms is a more attractive place to play than the above premises. More controlled games in a quiet environment, generally players wager moderate-huge sums.

At Lucky Dragon I'm considered as a valuable customer (lol), sending at my Vegas address a lot of free dinner coupons and so.
Good environment but the food is horrible. Really horrible I mean.
Sometimes a simple burger is the best thing to eat but they don't have it.

Red Rock is one of the most elegant casino in Vegas. Few tourists, a lot of locals living at nearby Summerlin, one of the best Vegas districts. Just a couple of bac tables, mainly empty.
Great food here, awesome drinks. I mean free drinks.

At Venetian and Wynn you can't touch the cards at some tables even if you bet $300. Anyway their comps are formidable.

Encore features a lot of bac tables (I forgot to mention this casino on my previous list) along with the first baccarat theater ever set up in Vegas. A very good choice to put at risk the money, imo.

The Mirage HS room provides an excellent overall service, parallel to the Bellagio's one.
Ask to get the most rare drink you know and you'll get it.

A final note: if you have to play in Vegas join some HS rooms: you'll be treated like a king and for every bet you'll make you know to lose $1 or so (almost always minimum bet is $100).

as.   



 




       




   

Yep.
In the last 8 months I've been at Suncoast casino at least a couple of dozen times and never seen more than one (empty) baccarat table.

For that matter in Vegas area the most crowded bac tables in descending order are:

- Gold Coast
- Palace Station
- Rio
- Bellagio high stakes room
- Palms
- Lucky Dragon

Venetian was used to get a quite good action but they moved their bac tables into the high stakes room lowering the frequentation.

Not surprisingly the most action is placed at Vegas Chinatown surroundings (GC, Rio, Palms, PS), being the high stakes Bellagio room the most frequented in Vegas.

The second most frequented Vegas high stakes bac pit is at Caesar's Palace but get away from it.

as.   

Casinos win money because of their mathematical expectancy and this is linearly related with the numbers of bets we'll make.
Betting less alone will not cancel or invert the casino's math edge, still casinos will collect less money from us for sure.
Moreover our winning probability is directly related with the probability of success and inversely related with the number of attempts made to get a profit.

The negative edge impact will show up for sure itlr, yet our probability of success will improve when p is quite huge.
Thus we should consider the game as an infinite series of very short sessions and not as an infinite session.
Short sessions may get the casino as loser, almost never long sessions will make casino as loser.

If for whatever reason we could discard 4-5 numbers from the whole 38 numbers spectrum we'll get a temporary edge.
Surely this situation cannot last for long but it will happen. Definetely.

as.
 



 



 

Al, I'm sure you are mistaken.
I have a place very close to Suncoast and Rampart casinos and I'm very familiar with both premises.
Suncoast casino offers just one baccarat table being almost always empty. Rampart casino has two bac tables featuring a very calm action on most days.

Of course it would be a great pleasure to meet us.

as.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on July 12, 2017, 03:47:11 PM
If someone wants to be long term winner he/she has to act like the casino.
The casino doesn't attempting to predict but profits when predictions fail.
It's much more easier to gain from what is not going to happen rather than trying to predict what will happen.

Pure gold. No jokes.

as.

Quote from: Mike on July 02, 2017, 03:38:41 PM
The question then becomes, are any systems better than others? Depending on your reasons for playing and bankroll, I would say yes.

Agreed.

The main problem is to try to reduce variance not wagering many many spots, for example.

If we would raise our "trigger" requisites we'll know to pay an inferior tax as the less we bet the less we are taxed.
Additionally, "bad" outcomes must come out along the way, it's just a question of time.
Notice that consistently hoping to get good results into too short intervals of time is just a silly move.

Over selecting the spots we're betting into will raise our probability of success as some distributions won't get high standard deviation values.

as.   

Perfect, a sure random pick, right?

Say we want to register what happens after any P double appearance (one trigger I've talked about on my last post). Then we'll get:

First shoe

1- P double
2- P single
3- P single
4- P single

Second shoe

1- P single
2- P double
3- P single
4- P 3+

3rd shoe

1-P single

4th shoe

1- P double
2- P double
3- P single
4- P double undefined

5th shoe

1- P single
2- P single
3- P 3+

6th shoe

1- P single
2- P single

7th shoe

1- P 3+
2- P 3+
3- P double
4- P double
5- P single

8th shoe

1- P 3+
2- P single

9th shoe

1- P single
2- P single
3- P double
4- P single

10th shoe

1- P single
2- P double

11th shoe

1- P double
2- P single
3- P single
4- P single

12th shoe

1- P single
2- P double
3- P single
4- P 3+

13th shoe

1- P single

14th shoe

1- P double
2- P double
3- P 3+
4- P single
5- P double undefined

15th shoe

1- P single
2- P single
3- P 3+

16th shoe

1- P single
2- P single

17th shoe

1- P 3+
2- P 3+
3- P double
4- P double
5- P single

18th shoe

1- P single
2- P 3+
3- P single


19th shoe

1- P single
2- P single
3- P double
4- P single

20th shoe

1- P single
2- P double
3- P single

Total P singles: 36
Total P doubles: 16
Total P 3+s: 11
Total P doubles undefined (meaning one loss if cutting strategy): 2

Singles-doubles/3+s ratio= 52/11 (4.72:1) , expected ratio over a coin flip proposition = 3/1.
We have to add two losing units to the 3+s amount. Still we are in very good shape.

Of course those twenty shoes seem to be too B oriented or too SD/3+ favored anyway.
But what about the probability of success which cannot care a bit about the B vig whether a carefully studied progression is implemented?

And we weren't taking into account the asymmetrical factor and some additional statistical features giving us a much more manageable probability of success.
Everything explained in detail in my book. Not available so easily.
as.









 

Quote from: roversi13 on June 24, 2017, 11:00:39 AM
I read very often that waiting for a strong deviation and then bet for the reduction of this deviation is a very clever bet.
NO!
Suppose that in a given shoe P has a strong deviation(4 SD) vs Bank,that is in 50 hands P occurred 38 times and B 12 times.
Very rare,but already seen.....
In the situation above ,you start betting B and here the next decisions:
PBPBPBPBPB...
SD reduced,but you have not won,you have lost 5% on Bank

Hi roversi!

Exactly.

First, the B/P gap is the worst parameter to get any hint from.
Itlr B>P, still after dozens (or hundreds) of shoes we may easily get B<P.

After a 4 or higher sr deviation, there's no evidence that in the short run B or P will balance a previous deficit as most of the times B/P are fighting by a coin flip struggle. That's an unbeatable struggle.
We should say that the probability that a 4 sr deviation will increase to higher values is less pronounced than a RTM effect will take place.

But as you know very well, there's no a single possibility to get a 4 sr deviation on P 3+s vs P doubles after 10 or more shoes. No one, believe me.

And many other opposite situations are coming in handy for us.

as. 

There's no way to beat a coin flip proposition itlr and baccarat is a sort of coin flip game.

Any hand or any shoe is just a minuscule part of the entire picture.
After a single P decision, B side will be most likely just for the tiny probability the next hand will be an asymmetrical one.

After a couple of P consecutive hands, the probability to get an asymmetrical hand is increased.
And so on.

If some asymmetrical hands have happened not favoring B side, wagering Banker is a waste of money itlr.

Of course a 9.4% asymmetrical probability needs some time to show up. And it can't show up regularly or per any preordered set of hands.

In some way, after a lot of as hands have occurred, the best bet is wagering the P side as it's 1:1 payed and we could rely on the probability to get a deck rich of small cards or some P favored distributions too.

If you'd know the next five cards are 7,7,7,7 and ace which side should you bet on?

as.









 

How to beat baccarat itlr?

First, card counting the side bets. It gets you a mathematical advantage. 

Then there is the complicate world of B/P bets.

There is no way to consistently beat the game by following patterns or following lucky players or betting the opposite of unlucky players.
It's what the total amount of players will do and they are losers.

Remember that it's very hard to be ahead after two consecutive shoes and a lot harder to be ahead after 4 or more consecutive shoes. No matter how is sophisticated your strategy.

What we can do is betting the probabilities.

We do not want to hope for, we must rely upon probabilities.

For example after a P-P apparition, probabilties dictate that the most likely occurence will be a P single or a P double. Period.

Or that after an asymmetrical hand favoring (or actually not) Banker, next most likely hand will be a symmetrical hand that is a hand which is payed 1:1 on one side and 0.95:1 on the other one.

Or that after many high cards have been discarded, P side will be slightly favored especially if a lot of 8s and 9s were already drawn from the shoe.

Or that P standing or natural points are less likely than P drawing points, a necessary situation to get the B advantage.

Or that B streaks are more due if there's a lack of asymmetrical hands on the previous hands occurred.

Or that the most likely outcome at baccarat is getting chops and short streaks.

Or that P 3+ streaks are less followed by another P 3+ streak.

And many other situations will be more likely than others itlr.

Do those features regularly get the player an advantage?

Nope.

There's the variance and variance will enlarge itself the more we are playing. So huge that very often after 3-4 shoes we cannot devise how to get a winning hand.
Worse yet if we got consecutive long winning series giving us the illusion to be genius.

Wait some unlikely situations to come up, odds are that your future bets will be more right than wrong. Especially if such unlikely situations got a sd > 3.

It takes a lot patience, it takes to absorb the assumption that the game is a very long game eventually balancing the outcomes. 
Up to the point that we won't be in the position to bet a dime after 5-6 or 10 or more shoes.

In a word a thing no any bac player in the world wants to accept.

So such players keep losing and losing and losing.


as.