« on: October 16, 2017, 10:30:12 PM »
This is how the BBP mechanical scheme fares on the last shoe presented:
- - - - + + + + - - + - - + + - - - + - + + - + - + - - - + - - - - - + - - - - - + - - - + + + - - - - - + + - - - +
We see that in distribution terms we'll have: (R=runs or streaks and S=single)
R R R S R R R S S R S S S S R S R S R S R R R R R
With this "trick" we have restricted the amount of decisions from 74 hands to just 25.
If we want to restrict further the decisions we may choose to simply bet toward a streak of R or S one time and toward a single apparition of R or S.
Now we have: streak (RRR), single (S), streak (RRR), streak (SS), single, streak, single, single, single, single, single, single, streak.
That is a mere amount of 13 decisions.
Going even deeply and reasoning with the same streak/single principle, we could think the shoe as:
single (one streak), single (one single), streak (two streaks), single (one single), single (one streak), streak (many singles). That is just 6 decisions.
The "asym" concentration effect will transform this shoe in a pattern of just 6 decisions.
I mean that every single shoe will form one of the possible 64 dispositions of any mix of 6 decisions.
Of course not every shoe will produce exactly 6 decisions but almost surely it will form at least 5-6 multilayered singles and streaks patterns having a given probability to appear.
It's now that we could discover some long term propensities of the game without spending a lot of money and at the same time reducing at most the variance.
Back to the random flow of the actual shoe.
As Al correctly pointed out, any single shoe presents "turning points", spots where some previous patterns stop to exist giving place to other numerous patterns difficult to be chased.
If we are whimsically adopting a multi pattern strategy (dominating sides, singles, doubles, streaks, etc) directed to bet a lot of hands we are destined to fall in the realm of uncertainty even though in the shortest terms we could have the best of it.
But here we are playing a concentrate (or better a concentrate of the concentrate) of a mechanical strategy, meaning that we can only decide when a given single/streak pattern should come out or not.