BetSelection.cc

Please login or register.

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - AsymBacGuy

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 38 Next
1
Vic's Ideas / Re: [DRAFT] Triggers and Filters
« on: February 10, 2018, 12:06:28 AM »
Nice thoughts Vic.

I meekly suggest to consider the outcomes of each wheel separately as there's no general plan capable to get the best of it for every existing roulette.

as.

 
 


2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Asymbac method: key triggers at baccarat
« on: February 09, 2018, 11:50:32 PM »
The best thing about bac is, 'if you can control yourself', you don't have to bet to stay in the game.......................


+1

as.

3
Baccarat Forum / Re: Explain when and why you go for it.
« on: February 09, 2018, 12:05:51 AM »
Hi Al, nice to see you back!

About the camaraderie, I think you are right.
95% or so of the times when a player quits the table as decent or huge winner it's because almost every other player is winning. Very often in the same fortunate occasion one player quits the table as huge loser by stubbornly trying to get back the money playing a "counter-flow" strategy.
Hopefully we do not want to be in this player's position.

That means that thinking to get the power to alter what happens right now utilizing a strong negative progression doesn't work.

A winning table is a table where two or more players are getting winning streaks of two or more.
Sometimes some light negative progression bettors get the best of it crossing LWLWLW lines.
And sometimes just one player seem to get the driver's lead, that is capable to guess repeatedly some difficult shoe patterns by weird reasons.

Since it's not the amount of wagers that counts (otherwise progressions would make us millionaires) we should focus about our and other players' actual outcomes.
That's why many times I do not want to read the shoe results as my indicators will be the other active players at my table.

A simplified formula may be like this:
- best indicators are players who had won at least two consecutive hands.
- fair indicators are players who had won consecutively at least one hand per couple of attempts.
- anything different from the above scenarios are bad or very bad indicators.

The assumption that on the same shoe good indicators will get balanced by subsequent bad outcomes and vice versa, most of the time is not true.
If it were true, a simple fictional losing plan would give us easy profits.

The problem is an old one: losing players want to break even within too short intervals of time, trying to hope to get favourable and easily detectable situations. On the other end, winning players tend to not preserve properly the money won, not accounting that the previous favorite situations will slightly reverse.

Unfortunately our brain instructs us to bet too little or at a lesser degree too much on winning streaks and too much on losing streaks.

Maybe the 1-3-2-6, 2-6-4-12, 3-9-6-18, 4-12-8-24 and so on mechanically applied betting plan would help us to discover why we are losing ten times more than the expected mathematical negative edge applied.


as.

4
Wannawin's Library / Re: how to test a system?
« on: February 07, 2018, 02:07:13 AM »
If you are referring about roulette my best advice is to test your strategy separately onto different specific single generators.
No one general strategy can work on every wheel of the universe, otherwise roulettes would have taken off from the gambling world.

The more the factors involved are uniform, at least taken by a theorical point of view, the best will be your estimate on how good your system will fare on long terms.

Imo, random world works on multiple levels:

level 1 is whenever a "more likely event" (having a p>50%) will occur at the same or almost the same occurence dictated by general probability laws with a low impact of variance.

level 2 comes out whenever a more likely event presents a moderate impact of variance.

level 3 is when the variance is so high and frequent that it will easily counter act any strategy.

A perfect scenario will be to get a lot of  #1 level results and some level #2 outcomes with no or few #3 levels.

Since we cannot rid of those unfavourable #3 high varaince situations, we must find ways to restrict their impact over our strategy.

Say we have a plan to win whenever every level #1 and #2 will come out along the way with no #3 level situations.
We'll be millionaires.

Unfortunately certain unlikely level #3 situations will come out along the way.
Chasing them is a big mistake.
Level #3 events will erase every profit coming from #1 and #2 situations.

So we are forced to stop our betting anytime a situation #1 and #2 is surpassed.

Therefore we must classify many results taken from the same wheel in order to get a picture of #1, #2 and #3 events impact.

The more #1 and #2 events any wheel will present over the long run, the best will be our results.

As long as results are taken from the same parameters involved in the same wheel, things cannot change.
Of course humans hugely interfere with such process so let's guess which wheels I'm referring to.

A profitable wheel is any wheel capable to produce an unproportional higher amount of #1 and #2 situations as opposed to #3 events.
Such #3 situations will happen anyway but at a lower degree.

So getting a list of which wheels are producing the best #1-#2 vs #3 ratio is the best tool to get an edge.

Just to make an example, the Caesar's Palace IB automated wheel (placed in proximity to the Omnia nightclub) perfectly fits such requisites.

as.

5
General Discussion / Re: WELCOME BACK, 2018
« on: February 03, 2018, 09:45:04 AM »
That's awesome!
Nice to see you here again guys!

As.

6
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 24, 2017, 07:23:40 AM »
Thanks Blue for the explanation, I think some asian players seem to adopt a similar row-columns scheme (don't know which is their BS).

And of course you made some good point Al.

The bac problem is always the same: is it wiser to try to catch the actual flows or conversely to try to see whether a rigid scheme will get the best of it sooner or later?

I think the answer could be in the middle.

The mirroring strategy presented by BA is interesting.
It's the same concept I'm talking about: things must change.
Since we know we will almost surely lose after 4-5 shoes played, why do not take advantage of such situation?

And imo we could even add some adjustments in order to raise our probability of success.

For example, I do not want to bet a dime on the 1st shoe. I instead prepare the plan for the next shoes wriiting down the opposite situations already occurred. It's easier when you use a vertical registration of the outcomes.

Now the fictional players are B and P exact positions, any of them knows that the longer they play the better will be the probabilities to fall into the 50.68/49.32 percentages.

Again the BPBPPP... sequence will produce + and - in relationship of what happened in our target.
We know that any single position will reach some deviation values but in the whole the B/P ratio will be closer and closer to 50.68/49.32.
I mean that no many spots will reach high deviation values, of course we do not know which are.

Now we get nearly 75 spots per shoe playing for us, mostly fictionally.
How many of those 75 spots will produce huge winning (repeating) or losing (opposite side) situations?
How many consecutive spots will be likely to be strongly ahead or strongly behind?

Of course nobody is forced to play the 2nd (or 3rd) shoe or to bet many hands. We should remember that sh.it happens in clusters and betting few hands enlarge the probability to bypass fkn situations.

Actually we could even set up our plan without waiting the 1st shoe apparition, we just need any previous shoe registered randomly taken.
Shoes are not affected by time or by a given location or whether they are consecutively considered.

as. 

7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 23, 2017, 07:20:07 AM »
Good idea about the "crossroads" patterns!  :thumbsup:
If we write down decisions in 6 rows by 6 columns our "matrix" would reveal the optimum points for betting.
But except the horizontal rows and the vertical columns there are the diagonal lines.
On the conjunction of these 3 you should seek for the decision which will fulfil 3 different but connected parameters;

1) Lead = opposite from the last
2) Follow = same as last
3) Or get out of the way = don't bet

In other words when the next result would complete 1 chop for horizontal row or vertical column and 1 series/streak of 2 for the other then that's a bet.

It doesn't matter if the chop/change or series/streak of 2 are at vertical or horizontal, all it matters is to get the specific combination.

PS I like your signature too, of course certain individuals are determined to reach further than the majority and eventually it does make the difference.  ;)

Thanks BA! ;-)

Not sure to have fully understood your interesting post.
Can you elaborate? Thanks!

as








8
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 23, 2017, 07:04:49 AM »
Here's another shoe full of streaks.

PPB
PBP
PBB
BBB
BBB
PPB
PBB
PPP
BBB
PPP
PBB
BPP
PPB
BBB
BPP
PBB
BBB
BBP
PBP
BBB
PBB
PBB
PBP
PPB

- - - - + + - + - + + - + + - - - - - + - - - + + + - - - + - + - + - + - - - + + - + - + - + - + + - + + + - + + - + + + + - - + - - + - - + + - - -

R R S S S R S R R S R R R S S S S S S S R R S S S S S S S R S R S R S R R S R S R R R

2) R R S S R S R R R R S S S S S S R S S S R

3) R R S S R R S R

And here a shoe full of singles:

BPP
PBB
BBB
PBB
PBP
BBP
BPB
PBP
BPB
PPP
BPP
PBB
BPB
PBB
PBP
PBP
BBP
BPP
BPB
PBP
BPP
PPP
PPB
PB

+ - + - + - + + - - + - - + + + + + + - - - + + + - - - - + + - + - + - + - - - + - - + + - + + + + + + - + + - - - + + + - + - - + - - - - +

S S S S S S R R S R R R R R R S S S S S S R S R R S R S R R R S S R S R

2) R R S R R S S R S S S R R S S

3) R S R R S R R R

We see that no matter what a player chose to bet and no matter how the shoe is developing, things must change in a way or another as there is no a single shoe in the universe which could produce a strong deviation if we split the outcomes in such a way.
This happens because R could become S and S could be interpreted as R.

If we chose to regularly take a given side (R or S) in any registration, we see that we can encounter long winning streaks and long losing streaks but always up to a point.


For example the first shoe natural classification was: 

R R S S S R S R R S R R R S S S S S S S R R S S S S S S S R S R S R S R R S R S R R R

Despite the fact that S=24 and R=19, the number of S streaks was 3 and the number of S singles was 7.

On the other side, R presented 6 streaks and 5 singles.

The second shoe first classification was:

S S S S S S R R S R R R R R R S S S S S S R S R R S R S R R R S S R S R

S=19 and R=17

S streaks are 3 and S singles are 5

R streaks are 4 and R singles are 3.

Is something coming up in your mind?

as.

9
General Discussion / Re: baccarat trends
« on: October 22, 2017, 08:44:21 AM »
Interesting points.

Imo the problem should be set in a simplier way:

1- About 1/3 of the total hands is decided by naturals.

2- Player side standing/natural points will 100% deny the Banker advantage.

3- Whenever Player draws, odds dictates that Banker is advantaged.

About #1 we can't do anything other than hoping that the side which got more naturals won't be balanced by an equal number of naturals on the other side.
Sometimes naturals tend to come out alternatively, so we should act accordingly.

If we see that Player side will draw more often not (more than half of the expected time), we better choose the Banker side to bet into. Player drawing streaks will be slightly more likely than single Player drawing situations.

Anytime we are wagering Banker when Player draws, we're getting a sure advantage itlr.

In a nutshell, anytime we are guessing that Player side won't get a 6,7,8 or 9 initial point, we will get an advantage betting the Banker side.
And the opposite is true: when wagering Player side, we are hoping to get a 6,7,8 or 9 point.

Every other intermediate situation will confuse the whole picture.

as.



 



 

   
 

 



10
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 22, 2017, 08:18:35 AM »
After having concentrated at different degrees any single shoe in R and S signs, we have to consider the long term impact (consecutive shoes) acting over our strategy.

If we want to consider shoes only as succession of six initial third degree R/S patterns, we'll know that per every shoe dealt there will be 64 possible patterns, equally probable.

And, for example, if no one shoe will show an all R or S streak pattern we know that a 6-step progression cannot lose.
Taken by another way of thinking, we could say that a R or S sign will surely appear in a 6-hand succession.

Unfortunately this cannot be accomplished 100% of the times, otherwise the game would be easily beaten itlr.

Therefore we should study the probability of success when a R or S event should be more likely to appear in some portion of the shoe, that is the exact positions where R or S should come out more often than not.

Now we have a linear (horizontal) R/S succession and a "vertical" (shoe after shoe) R/S succession.

Since we're mechanically concentring outcomes at deep degrees, in a sense we're betting that at least two shoes in a row won't produce the exact situation previously happened. At best we are betting that the losing 1/64 expected ratio will be lower than that (1/66, 1/70, etc).

As sayed, we may bet horizontally (linear shoe successions) or vertically (exact position studied per many shoes).

After having tested millions of shoes I can say that the probability to cross both horizontally and vertically exact R/S situations and no R or S situations appearing on two consecutive shoes is zero if at least 6 R/S patterns were produced.

This means that by using this subdivision, the probability to get an unfavourable 12 hand situation on two consecutive shoes is zero. (of course it can't be zero for the law of probability).

Yes, from a practical point of view nobody is going to risk 4096 units to win just one unit (12-step progression) and anyway it can't be done knowing the min-max limits allowed at bac tables.

Hence we might decide to only bet the Banker hands dictating a given winning hand, meaning we're throwing off any situation where a possible winning hand should be placed on Player side.

Now our strategic plan is multilayered concentrated: first as any single shoe will be seen at our eyes as a simple 6-hand R/S pattern; secondly knowing that the situations when a Player hand would get us a profit will be slightly lower than the expected counterpart; third, that an ever equaling factor is going to act no matter what.

Long winning streaks are just a temporary finding most players are looking for.
Imo we better take as target the situations when a due outcome must come out within an acceptable interval of time.

as.

11
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 16, 2017, 11:09:38 PM »
Once I discovered what I define as, "Sections and Turning Points", I drastically increased my advantages if (and only if) my mind was clear and my vision unfocused on certain events and all that as I have written about regarding this.

If you can open you mind and unclutter it from your past wins and losses and how those incurred, you will be better off.  Easier said than done!

Yes, a clear mind drastically helps players. Unfortunately the gambling environment and human emotions turn the logic section off from the brain.


as.





12
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 16, 2017, 11:04:42 PM »
A fair P shifted shoe:

PBP
BPP
BPB
PPB
PPP
PBP
BBP
PBP
PPP
BPB
BBP
BPP
BPP
PPB
BBP
BPB
PPP
PPP
PPP
PBP
BPP
PPP
PPB
BBP

- + + + - + + - - - - - - - + - + + + + + - + + - - + + - - + + + + - + + - + - - - + + + + - - - - + - - + - - + - + + + - + - - + - + - + + +

S R S R R S S R S R R R R R S R S S R R R S R S R S S R S S R S S S S R

second

S S S R R S S R S S R R S S S S R S R

finally

 R R R S R R R S S

as.



13
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 16, 2017, 10:50:30 PM »
A huge B shifted shoe:

BBB
PBP
PBB
BPB
BBP
PPB
BBB
PBP
PPB
BPB
PBB
PBP
BPB
PBB
PBB
BBP
BBB
BBB
BBB
BPB
PBB
BPB
BPP
P

+ + - - + + - + - + + + - - - + + - - + + - - - + - - - + - - + + + - + - + - - + - + + + + + - + + - + + - + - - - + - + - - + - + -

R R R S S S R R R R R R S R S R R S S S S R S S R S R S R S S R S S S R S S S

secondly

R R R S S S R R S R S S S S S R S R S R

finally

R R R S S R S S S S

as.

14
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 16, 2017, 10:39:39 PM »
Here's the second shoe presented:

R R S R R R S S R R S S R S R R R R R S S S S R S R R S R S S S R S R S S S S R S

that is

R S R R R R S S R R S S R S S R S S S R S

finally

S S R R R R S R S R S

as.


15
Baccarat Forum / Re: Easy way to feel the random flow
« on: October 16, 2017, 10:30:12 PM »
This is how the BBP mechanical scheme fares on the last shoe presented:

- - - - + + + + - - + -  - + + - - - + - + + - + - + - - - + - - - - - + - - - - - + - - - + + + - - - - - + + - - - +

We see that in distribution terms we'll have: (R=runs or streaks and S=single)

R R R S R R R S S R S S S S R S R S R S R R R R R

With this "trick" we have restricted the amount of decisions from 74 hands to just 25.

If we want to restrict further the decisions we may choose to simply bet toward a streak of R or S one time and toward a single apparition of R or S.

Now we have: streak (RRR), single (S), streak (RRR), streak (SS), single, streak, single, single, single, single, single, single, streak.
That is a mere amount of 13 decisions.

Going even deeply and reasoning with the same streak/single principle, we could think the shoe as:
single (one streak), single (one single), streak (two streaks), single (one single), single (one streak), streak (many singles). That is just 6 decisions.

The "asym" concentration effect will transform this shoe in a pattern of just 6 decisions. 
I mean that every single shoe will form one of the possible 64 dispositions of any mix of 6 decisions. 

Of course not every shoe will produce exactly 6 decisions but almost surely it will form at least 5-6 multilayered singles and streaks patterns having a given probability to appear.

It's now that we could discover some long term propensities of the game without spending a lot of money and at the same time reducing at most the variance.   

Back to the random flow of the actual shoe.

As Al correctly pointed out, any single shoe presents "turning points", spots where some previous patterns stop to exist giving place to other numerous patterns difficult to be chased.
If we are whimsically adopting a multi pattern strategy (dominating sides, singles, doubles, streaks, etc) directed to bet a lot of hands we are destined to fall in the realm of uncertainty even though in the shortest terms we could have the best of it.

But here we are playing a concentrate (or better a concentrate of the concentrate) of a mechanical strategy, meaning that we can only decide when a given single/streak pattern should come out or not.

as.

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 38 Next