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1
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: July 06, 2020, 11:15:38 pm »
At this point it should be clear that our long term results are in direct relationship between the different EVs working on those two very diverse situations.

Many craps players like to place odds at pass lines or don't pass lines after the point is established. Normally the HE is never zero, say very close to zero but never zero.
At baccarat we've seen that as long as no asym hands will be formed, wagering Player side is a way better option than betting Banker as the payment is 1:1 and not 0.95:1.
That means that on symmetrical hands virtually no card distributions could alter significantly the Banker negative EV.

Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.

Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural.

No asym hand = no Banker party!

What's the real probability to get the Player drawing/ Banker 5,4 or 3 initial point situation?

It's 7.72%

Meaning that 87.05% of the times our Banker bets are long term losers.
And of course that 12.95% of the times are huge long term winners.

It could happen that some shoes are so badly shuffled that the asym formation would be more or less likely in many portions of the shoe, we can take into account the consecutiveness of the asym apparition, the quality of asym situations etc.

Say you want to split the shoe into 6-hands betting portions (bet for real or fictionally). At a 8-deck shoe you'll get around 12 situations (ties ignored).
It's impossible that every situation will be symmetrically placed, thus some portions must involve a B advantage (asym apparition).
Nevertheless most portions are symmetrically placed getting a very different EV depending upon which side we like to bet.
It could happen that one or more asym hands will show up within every single portion of this shoe (thus making profitable a B wagering), but I guess it's more likely we'll hit a slot jackpot.

More likely and knowing that the asym hand apparition probability is around 8%, some portions will be asym hands free.
The average probability is that a slight lesser amount of such portions will be symmetrically placed. Actually a balanced occurence of asym hands cannot get a steady pace for obvious reasons, so we could infer that more than one asym hands might show up in one or more portions. Therefore lowering (or increasing) the probability on subsequent portions.

Not giving a damn about the actual results, we know that the shoe is producing an average amount of pure sym or asym/sym portions.
Portions formed by all sym hands cannot elicit other than a Player betting. On the contrary, portions containing one or possibly more asym hands will elicit a Banker wagering.

Combined with the very slight propensity to get the opposite result, asym hand quality and actual outcome, general asymmetricity of card distributions and some other features regarding specific random walks, it's not that difficult to spot the situations where our EV will be neutral or hugely shifted toward one side or another.

as.

2
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: July 05, 2020, 09:50:19 pm »
Hi Rickk!

We can't hope to be long term winners without getting a positive EV, no matter how is taken.

Globally we know that our EV is negative, being slight negative (0.18 is the difference) by constantly wagering Banker side.

Math speaking, there are only two situations to bet favourably itlr:

- catching more asym hands than expected while wagering B side;

- NOT catching asym hands while wagering P side.

Example.
An infinite run of six hands are dealt (consecutively or not, it doesn't matter) and we want to see what's our EV depending upon which side we would like to bet.
If all those six hands are symmetrical, we know that itlr we'll win half of them regardless of the side we choose to bet.
Thus the EV is:

Banker bets: (0.95 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 1.425 - 1.5 = -0.075

Player bets: (1 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 0

That means that betting a $100 unit we'll get on average a $296.25 return on our money when betting Banker and a $300 return while wagering Player side.
Same proportions could be extracted regarding eight hands or ten hands or about hands of any lenght.

When a single asym hand comes out, things abruptly shift toward Banker side, altering hugely the normal EV flow just for that very hand.

Now the asym hand EV on Banker bets is 0.95 x 0.5793 - 1 x 0.4207 = 0.1296

Do the math and you'll see that itlr an invincible betting plan could be oriented to spot the situations when an asym hand apparition is more likely within a more restricted than expected range or, at a way lesser degree, that a given shoe sequence is more likely to produce more natural sym events. In the former case we will of course privilege B side, in the latter the P choice.

Naturally the 0.5 (sym) and 0.5793 (B/P asym) probability values are just general values, yet the payment remains the same (B=0.95:1 and P=1:1), that is hugely shifted toward one side.

And we know that not all asym hands will get the 0.5793 probability, it's just a cumulative math situation.
Most asym hands power comes from Banker 5 points facing a P drawing hand, then Banker 4 points facing a P drawing hand and at a way lesser degree B 3 points facing a P drawing hand.
6 B points dealing a 6 or a 7 third card to P side are just lowering the negative egde.

Of course all standing-natural/standing-natural situations (belonging to the sym spots category) itlr will advantage Player side as first they are payed 1:1 instead of 0.95:1, then any Banker 6 point facing any standing Player situation must stand prompting a sure negative math proposition.

Tomorrow we'll see how to consider outcomes in terms of asym/sym actual distribution.

as.

3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 28, 2020, 11:25:40 pm »
Think about math percentages first.

If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr.

Asym hands that went "wrong" for B side just endorse the probability to get sym hands on the very next outcome as the probability to get back to back asym hands is distant. We surely do not want to wager a side being payed 0.95:1 than 1:1.

By the same way of thinking, a B natural is going to produce a way lesser impact than the same P natural.

Next time we'll consider naturals.

as.

4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 28, 2020, 10:13:35 pm »
Mathematically our long term EV is in direct relationship between asym and sym betting ranges.

For example, say a portion of the shoe presents eight straight sym hands and the actual outcomes of those sym hands are producing an eight Banker streak.
If we were betting Banker each hand belonging to this streak we may think to be lucky or geniuses. Actually we are severely losing money.
On the other hand, the same sym 8-hand pattern could form a Player streak of the same lenght and now a steady Player betting cannot get us other than a zero negative edge at least.

Since the probability to get one of the possible 256 different BP patterns on those sym situations remains the same, it's quite obvious that there's no point to bet Banker at any of those eight sym hands.

Thus the Banker side should be wagered just about the probability to form or not an asym hand among a very restricted range of hands.
This one is the only wise math approach working itlr as the math advantage must overcome the negative HE.

We should remember again that most asym hands edge comes from 5s and 4s Banker initial points and, at a lesser degree. from 3s.

Think that many Banker 5s and 4s initial points will cross standing/natural Player situations, therefore transforming potential shifted events (that is asym hands) into mere symmetrical circumstances.

In some way we could infer that the probability to form a 4 or 5 Banker initial point is somewhat dependent about the previous situations and we should always be focused about the mere asym/sym probability.
Let's say that as long as no 4 or 5 (and, at a lesser degree a 3 point) Banker initial point will be formed, we are betting a close to zero negative edge game when wagering P side.

In any case, we want to add a further parameter, that is how asym hands went in our shoe.

Say we know for sure that the actual shoe is presenting such sequence (S= symmetrical hands and N= non symmetrical hands):

S-S-S-S-N-S-N-S-S-S-S-N-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S

The are no other perfect plays than wagering Banker at hands #5, #7, #12, #13, #20, #28, #42, #64.
For now we cannot care less about the real BP outcomes, after all the winning probability of such sequence is a long math proposition of 0.5 (S) and 0.5793 (N) events.
Quite likely not every N spot will form a Banker hand, not mentioning that at S spots everything will be possible.

Now let's compare the same deck N or S situations with the new distribution.
Of course the probability to get the exact N or S distribution will be zero and, by an obvious higher degree, the same results.

Nonetheless, the clustering N or S effect will seem to remain the same as cards tend not to be properly shuffled.

It's like playing a game where we might be very very slight favored or hugely favored at various degrees, totally getting rid of the potential situation to find ourselves facing the exact counterparts.

as. 

5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 28, 2020, 07:52:49 pm »
My bad.
Thanks Al and sorry Rickk and everyone.
After posting the shoe everything appeared correct on my screen.

Let's try again with a simpler form:

B
P
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BB
PPPPPPPPP
B
P
B
P
B
PP
BB
PP
BBB
PPP
BB
P
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PPPPP
B
P
BB
P
BBBBBB
PPP


as.

6
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 22, 2020, 10:14:22 pm »
Look at this shoe (ties ignored).

BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBP
     BPBP           BP            PBPBPB  B     P   P      B  BP
                            P                BP                 P           B    P
                            P                                      P           B
                            P                                      P           B
                            P                                                    B   
                            P
                            P
                            P 

In this shoe there were 12 asym hands (well above average) whom one produced a tie.
Quite curiously Banker got more naturals than Player.

This shoe produced ALL winning hands in the five hands played (for that matter we didn't bet a single hand on the Player nine-hand streak and on the Banker six-hand streak).
 
as.

7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 21, 2020, 11:51:23 pm »
The absolute certainty to play baccarat with an edge is by knowing precisely on which side a key card will fall. We know that and we know that this thing isn't possible.

Next it comes the more intricate field of "statistical approximations", that is how things could more likely develop according to both general specific guidelines and actual observations.
It's true that without any math edge we are generally going to nowhere, but it is altogether true that when a given method itlr is getting lower sd values than expected we are at least taking a less worse approach.
More deeply we want to go in the process, higher will be the probability to win up to the point where the negative HE will be inverted to our favor.
Meaning that no "unfortunate" back to back sequences could destroy our plan if we have carefully assessed what I name the "asym factor" (ASF) working for each shoe dealt.
Higher is the ASF value, higher is our probability of success.
 
Bac outcomes are the direct product of:

- asym hands apparition favoring B side mathematically, getting a finite frequency over a single shoe;

- key cards finite distribution falling here and there;

- very slight propensity to get the opposite result just happened;

- actual result of asym hands;

- actual result of sym hands;

- third card impact on outcomes.

Say each one of those factors are more or less unbalanced in the shoe we're playing at.
Of course most strenght should be assigned to the asym hand apparition as any B4 or B5 (and at a lesser degree any B3) facing a P drawing situation is hugely favorite to win.

Next comes the key cards falling, nobody wants to face a first card 8 or 9 when wagering Banker and vice versa.

Then the old very slight propensity to get streaks ending up.
It's a sure fkng statistical finding that at baccarat streaks are shorter than at any other same probability independent propositions results (try to compare REAL bac shoes with 50.68/49.32 mere probability decisions)

The actual result of asym hands is an issue understimated by many.
Once a math situation went wrong for the favorite side, betting Banker next means to hope that another asym hand will come out.
I'm not suggesting that when an asym hand produced a Player result, the best bet is wagering Player. Just that the possible asym math force was quite consumed.

The actual result of sym hands is probably one of the most important factors to be examined.
Itlr and no matter what is the actual result, we are way less disadvantaged whether each same class of selective bets are made upon hands getting sym decisions when betting P than B. Obviously.

Finally there's third card nature, more or less unbalanced to produce favourable or not situations to Player side.
Surely 4s are the best cards to be dealt to a drawing P side, then 5s and so on.
Notice that there's a subtle line between a third card 8 or 9 being more detrimental than not to P side, but at the same time hugely beneficial when Banker shows a natural point negating P to draw and getting those key cards as first card.

To simplify a lot, best random walk to follow is that one that had shown a huge degree of asymmetricity whatever intended, either from a mere quantity point of view and, more importantly, from a quality point of view.

Our goal should be oriented to get ALL winning situations at the shoe we're playing at and naturally we can't win every hand when wagering each hand dealt or most hands dealt.

Therefore we must find the best random walks getting such feature in the shoe we're playing at and, of course, to get all winnings we must start with a win.

as.

8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 15, 2020, 12:15:16 am »
Actually in the vast majority of the times, strong Player shoes feature many asym hands that went "wrong" for B side.
It's like betting a less likely situation knowing that events favoring the opposite B side are not coming out as the shifting power was somewhat over.

as.

9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 14, 2020, 11:25:04 pm »
Neglecting ties for simplicity, any possible hand will get those true percentages for the player:

Betting B at any asym hand: +0.95 x 57.93% - 1 x 42.07 = + 12.96%

Betting P at any asym hand 1 x 42.07 - 1 x 57.93% = - 15.86%


Betting B at any sym hand: +0.95 x 50% - 1 x 50% = - 2.5%

Betting P at any sym hand +1 x 50% - 1 x 50% = 0%

Therefore itlr we can only hope to be ahead by catching a higher percentage of asym hands than expected when betting Banker and a higher than expected amount of sym hands when betting Player. The remaining events are just belonging to strong or very strong negative propositions.

Obviously there's no one method in the world that could hope to be long term winner whenever the cumulative sums of those four situations will produce the expected negative amount.

It's just a work about detecting when an asym hand will show up more likely within a restricted range of hands, at the same time trying to get rid of those sym hands going to B side as itlr the number of sym B hands will be equal to the number of P sym hands but very differently payed.

For example, say we bet Banker and a simple BBBB pattern shows up with no asym hands coming out.
Itlr we are losing more money than if we were wagering Player side thus losing all four bets.
An apparent "good" situation just becomes a strong losing event.

Conversely a Banker steady wagering on the same BBBB pattern including just one asym hand will get us a long term profit.

Back to your question.

The asym Banker advantage is an average long term value made by all possible standing/drawing situations after a third card is dealt to the Player and Banker can decide what to do in relation of its point (3,4,5 and 6 initial points).
We know that most edge comes from standing 5s, then standing 4s, then standing 3s.
6s drawing after a 6 or 7 is dealt to the Player just lower the disadvantage, it's not a true advantage.
I mean that the asym power on asym hands could be more or less concentrated, always depending upon how is the card distribution on the actual shoe.
Thinking this way we may assign a specific role to any asym hand occurred, not only in the form of initial point but in terms of actual result.

Now let's compare the general probability with the actual probability: 8.6% asym occurence getting a 15.86% B advantage with what really happen at the shoe we're playing at.

Former value is more stable than second one as it's more likely to get P drawing situations as opposed to 3,4,5,6 B points. Actually almost no one single shoe will form no asym hands.
Yet the average 15.86% B edge on those asym hands is more whimsically placed, being the reflex of which B point is dealt when P draws. Not mentioning that the main destiny of asym hands is focused about just one card, that is the third card.

as.

10
Lol.
Al, do you really need his/her cash to play?  :)

as.

11
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 12, 2020, 11:46:46 pm »
If baccarat is a constant asymmetrical game, first we should focus our attention about real symmetrical probabilities.
More specifically about the lenght of those sym probabilities.

A perfect world dictates that whether a baccarat shoe won't produce asym B favored hands, a constant Player wagering will get at least a zero negative edge against the house.
Oppositely, ONLY a higher than 8.6:91.4 asym/sym hands ratio will lower, erase or invert the house edge on B wagers.

On average, an asym hand will come out about one time over 11.62 hands. To simplify say we'll get one asym hand out of 12 hands and some of them are producing a tie hand.
We also know that a 8.6% probability, differently to other gambling games, cannot be silent per every shoe dealt (that is within a 75-80 hands sample).
Therefore we might imply that no matter how whimsically is the actual card distribution, sooner or later probabilities will change from 0.5/0.5 to 0.5793/0.4203.

In a sense, now we are not interested about how things seem to develop but about will be the probability to cross either 0.5/0.5 or 0.5793/0.4203 events.
That is how much and how many times those two different probabilities change in our actual shoe.

But there's a third important factor to be examined.
That is how asym hands went as more than four out of ten times a shifted math probability favoring B side will be "disregarded".

Now we could consider any shoe as a finite world made by many subsequences of sym/asym hands; on their part asym hands will form further sequences of W/L patterns.

as. 

12
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: June 12, 2020, 10:23:18 pm »
Hi Rickk!

The principal aim of this plan is to win just one hand getting a general P 0.75 winning probability. If we are betting toward singles and doubles, we must hope that the third unwanted "3" won't come out after the other two different states (singles and doubles) had come out at least once each.
For example a P 1-1-1-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1 sequence, despite being so attractive doesn't elicit any betting.
If in the same sequence the 3 would be replaced by a 2 (1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1) we'll get four wins when betting "infinitely" and just one win after the 1 that follows the 2.

The 1-2 unit progression was just an example; actually we generally use a softer 1-1.3 or 1-1.5 progression, meaning that the main effort is focused about singles as doubles are considered just a back-up plan.

Of course the 0.75 P winning probability is extracted from a perfect 50/50 proposition but we know that bac B/P probabilities jump from 0.5/0.5 (sym hands) to 0.5793/0.4207 (asym hands), therefore in no way we could think to really wager each hand by a real 0.5068/0.4932 probability ratio.
Especially when we are restricting at most our range of intervention by quantity and quality factors.

as.

13
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: June 09, 2020, 10:10:37 pm »
"Points" of interest

What is the long term distribution of Banker and Player final points?

Contrary to what many could think, only two categories of points will get the same probability to appear on both sides.
And of course those two are natural 8s and natural 9s. Every other point category will feature a different probability whether we are considering Banker or Player.
Another form to think about asymmetricity.

Hence the only situations where final points get a real symmetrical probability occur with naturals. Not even 6s and 7s will get a symmetrical probability (for obvious reasons).

That's why the Dragon bonus side bet involves a quite different house edge depending upon the side we choose to bet (by far the house edge is a lot lower on P side bets).

The slightest difference between same point B and P probabilities comes with "3" and "7" points. Then about non natural 8s and 9s, 0, 1 and 2 points.
Then "6" points.
Greatest gap in probability exists with 4s and 5s. (Obviously)

On average a deck will form around 19% of naturals on either side, thus around 4/5 of the total hands dealt are following a more or less pronounced asymmetricity.
Naturally we are not talking about more likely B or P outcomes, just about long term final points probability.

Of course the higher the point the better is the probability to win, yet itlr those point gaps are constantly moving around fixed probabilities, each point fighting with a general and an actual shoe probability.

Taken from another point of view, we should see that if 4s and 5s are the more gapped final points (5.4%) then a kind of Banker advantage is more concentrated right on those exact B final points. And we know this being absolutely correct as most asym B edge comes from standing 4s and 5s.

Well, standing. And not all 4s and 5s stand after Player draws.
Not mentioning that some 4s must stand when a third card ace id dealt to the Player, a slight negative edge situation.
And 4s and 5s cannot come infinitely.

The third more pronounced gap situation between same points is about point 6, now favoring Player side and accounting to around 1.1%.
That is that we'll get more P 6 final points than B 6 final points and of course a 6 point is long term favorite to win.

Cumulatively and regarding final points distribution, B 4s, B 5s and P 6s get a nearly 6.6% general asymmetrical probability to appear that we should compare to the actual shoe situations.


as.   

14
Yes, it would be a good start if MGM made smoking free one of their premises, imo.

as.

15
My comments.

As long as US keep getting this very high infection rate, nobody residing outside US will want to jump in Vegas or in US. (An exception are those degenerate poker players not knowing what are the real effects of a covid-19 infection)
USA is still the most Covid-19 infected country along with Brasil, India and Mexico (right now).
Not mentioning that aircrafts, especially long haul flights, are among the best places to be infected.
 
Checking the temperature is a total bighornsh.it. Anybody, infected or not, before entering a premise or an airport would like to be heavily loaded by Tylenol or ibuprofen or aspirin assumption.
Moreover many Covid-19 infection cases went without any fever and, sigh, without getting a positive test.

Buffets, imo, could be reopened as long as single portions of food would be available and where no customer can touch other than a single personal spoon.
And of course where a proper social distancing comes in order.

Parking fees: it's a total another bighornshit to make people pay the parking when entering a casino.
Did we need to get covid-19 to accomplish this?

Smoking.

It's a third rattlesnakeshit to allow people to smoke inside a casino, unless a very strong air ventilation is used. A wasted opportunity to stop the fkng smoking into a casino.

Imo and in the opinion of many, Vegas casinos will make a safe environment if:

- every person entering the premise must wear a face mask (not allowed a FFP2/FFP3 mask with a valve)

- many gel sanitizers are at disposal, forcing people to clean hands before any table/slot join or before/after any toilet enter/exit and buffet/restaurant enter/exit.
Covid-19 is very susceptible to any alcoholic/bleach solution.   

- a proper air ventilation is in order (many high end casinos offer a kind of clean air long since)

- no smoking is allowed. Smoke endorses the probability to get virus particles trapped in the air, thus increasing the probability to catch the unwanted fkng covid by simple breathing despite of the use of surgical masks.

- any person will constantly keep a "social distance" of at least 4-5 feet from another one.

Unfortunately long haul flights cannot guarantee a safe environment by any means.
An aircraft is the prototype of an indoor same breathing air enviroment, even if seats are distanced.
Probably only FFP2/FFP3 face masks and gloves wearing and a deep disinfection after any flight is the solution to lower the risk. It's like entering a covid-19 ICU, no more no less.

as.     

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