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Messages - AsymBacGuy

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1
I got worse messages from him that I keep for legal prosecution.

Sorry guys, just to know how's harsh could be the internet world.

as. 

2
Here's some details on the profile of Johno-Egalite aka Rolex Watch, aka Lugi aka....the genius very likely comes from Manchester, UK. (ip's are recordable and already recorded)

Just a couple of messages he liked to sent me (those and the rest will be legally prosecuted by myself I have a lot of money to spend on such things).


Rolex-Watch
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Re: (No subject)
? Sent to: AsymBacGuy on: April 02, 2015, 10:10:44 pm ?
bring it on, I'll put some bullet holes into you


 Rolex-Watch
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Re: (No subject)
? Sent to: AsymBacGuy on: April 03, 2015, 12:26:29 am ?
? You have forwarded or responded to this message. ?
I want to meet up with you, and whoever, bring your boys, gang, I want to meet.  Name your cityI can travel you cheeky cunt.

Just tell me when and where motherfucker, you don't know who your messing with, make sure you have a decent health insurance policy.

Come and FRONT me you CUNT, I'll rip your tocking face off

The British mentally ill person keep posting on other forums as, he was correctly kicked off from here.
It's very very likely he will just play baccarat with his inmates.

as.
 





3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 21, 2019, 12:35:13 am »
Thanks Al, I will.

as.

 

4
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 20, 2019, 11:18:51 pm »
It was just a kind of joke, we know mathematicians can't beat the game and neither players using an empirical approach. Probably the answer is in the middle.

I won't give specific answers to my questions as nobody is interested on numbers. Just personal comments.

Question #1: it's very very rare to get three consecutive shoes without at least one natural 8/9 showing, especially if 8s and 9s are quite live in the actual portion of the deck. Since such side bet is payed 50:1 we have plenty of room to set up a progressive profitable betting.

#2: when we are on Banker showing 4 and the third card is a 9, of course we are in a very good shape unless player's initial cards shows zero. A missed bonus as the probability player has zero is 1:3.77 (5 is ignored as it forms a tie hand).
An excellent wasted probability that we won't find around the corner. If we were on Player we have no reasons to jump.

#3: the average number of player's 3+ streaks is, imo, one of the best tool to take advantage from. Remember that sh.it or fantastic situations tend to come out in clusters.

#4: oh well, everybody reading my pages should teach me about this. Say we'll get at least 3 asym hands per shoe and it's very very unlikely to get more than 14. Do not fall in the trap to bet banker when the asym force went away.

#5: when 7s are particularly live at a EZ baccarat table, the best move is to bet player and the F-7 bet. You don't want to pay the banker's vig when a symmetrical hand is more likely to show up and to get a F-7 with live 7s, banker must get zero as initial point that is a non advantaged asym situation.

#6: Mathematically is relatively low but any Player standing point is favorite to win itlr. And do not forget the clustering effect: Glen wrote an interesting thread about this.

#7: player gets a 42.07% probability to win just about 8.4% of the total hands dealt. Not that easy to get consecutive dog situations like that.

#8: it's quite easy to lose (or win depending on which side we were betting) even 12 or more hands in a row in such B favorite situation. Sometimes it seems that P helping 3s are concentrated on the possible player's third card. Again a kind of clustering effect.
Notice that when the P third card is a 3 only a B 5 or B 6 point are standing (asym situations).   

#9: it's a pretty good spot to bet P side and getting a 7 as we'll lose immediately just 19% of the situations (B naturals). Moreover Banker must stand on its 6s when facing a P standing; actually it should draw to get a better probability not to lose (a sort of mistake made by bac inventors, probably set up in order to limit the B advantage). In the remaining possibilities Banker can beat us only catching two cards out of all 13 probabilities.

#10: the probability to get a natural on either side is 34.2%, yet per every shoe dealt card distribution issues tend to deny a perfect balancement of such occurences.
A careful assessment of the consecutiveness of naturals falling on one side or the other one may help to spot the actual "card distribution" advantaged side. Especially when cards are not properly shuffled (that is almost always).

It would be a honor for me to work with you Lungyeh as well as with many other members here.


as.

5
AsymBacGuy / Baccarat experts: a test for you
« on: June 20, 2019, 01:10:37 am »
An easy test to assess how a bac player really knows about baccarat.

1) What's the probability to get a natural 8 vs a natural 9 in every position per every shoe dealt?

2) What's the Banker's advantage when Banker shows a 4 giving a third card 9 to the Player?

3) What's the average number of 3+ streaks on Player side in a 8-deck shoe when an average 12 cards are cut from the play?

4) How many asymmetrical hands are going to show up per 70 resolved hands dealt?

5) Disregarding other key cards, what's the average EV on F-7 bets (dragon bonus) when after 30 hands dealt no 7 had shown?

6)  What's the average probability to get a back to back "standing" Player (6,7,8 or 9 point) hand?

7) How the Player disadvantage is calculated?

8) What's the probability Banker wins when showing a 5 and giving a third card 3 to the Player?

9) What's the probability a Player two-card 7 point showing will win?

10)  What's the probability to get a back to back winning natural hand on either side?

as.



     
 

6
General Discussion / Re: What to do with the BetSelection.cc forum?
« on: June 19, 2019, 11:00:31 pm »
Probably a "baccarat is solved" site would entice more members to join it but you should charge them in the order of thousands.

And of course such members will want to experience real live proofs that such thing is possible.

No short term negative variance is allowed, btw. :-)

as. 

 


7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat Talk
« on: June 11, 2019, 10:55:48 pm »
Hi Sputnik!

What exactly do you mean for "reversal"?

as.

8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: June 11, 2019, 12:00:35 am »
Hi and thanks for your replies!

@roversi.

Look, of course I have got a statistical significance about what I'm talking about.
Anytime you are playing a shoe getting a strong P predominance at the start, you are getting a lower probability on certain subsequent "more expected" events as the room to get them is more limited albeit slightly.
It's not to be forgotten that asymmetrical force is very often nullified (inversed) in P predominant shoes, thus B is sailing mainly on a 50/50 proposition. 

@bally

You are right, yet in positive counts a bj counter could bet two or more spots thus enlarging the probability to get a natural or a doubling hand.
A luxury we can't have at baccarat, being an on/off single game.

@alrelax

The situations you depicted are quite unlikely being too much left or right deviated from the center of the bell curve, I generally prefer to let them go without betting even if I'd have won a lot wagering on them.
Of course, what I need when I encounter such deviated situations is to be at least one hand ahead as the rest is just a winning streak unless a WL event occures (break even or close to it).
Therefore when in doubt I tend to follow things, even though they are unlikely.

Nonetheless, my records show that I have made more money wagering shoes more adapting to my approach at the start then trying to get a "reverse line" albeit more expected (theoretically).

Naturally, if I think that shoes are not properly shuffled and outcomes tend to get a kind of univocal line I'll ride 'em, partially forgetting my primary plan.

I do not care to be right or wrong, I do care to win.

as.



   

 
 
 


9
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
« on: June 03, 2019, 11:48:05 pm »
Some shoes are unplayable

You've heard this statement many times from me.
I will try to illustrate my point.

Say the worst driver in the universe is 300 feet behind the finish line and Lewis Hamilton is half a mile behind.
Who would bet Hamilton as winner?
Of course the probability to get Hamilton as winner isn't zero but very close to it.

Translating this into baccarat, per any single shoe it's really really unlikely not to get at least one  3+ banker streak and/or at least one P single and many other "expected" situations.
Nonetheless since any shoe is a finite space, we know that the more we're going through it without finding what we're looking for, higher will be the probabilities to get such unlikely situations.
Even if we finally find a single or a couple of expected situations, the failed previous attempts will pose a serious or letal threat to our bankroll.

When the limited space is more and more consumed and things went in the wrong direction, we risk to place worthless bets.

Good.
What about abandoning our strategic plan and starting to bet what it seem to be predominant?

Wrong choice, imo.

First, quitting our plan trying to get positive outcomes while denying (even temporarily) our studies is a mistake.
If we have ascertained that A>B, A remains favorite period.

Think when you are at a virtual blackjack table getting a positive count of +18 where dealer keep getting 20, 21 and naturals and you are allowed to wager the dealer's side. Are you really interested to wager the dealer's side?
If the answer is yes you should quit gambling immediately.

Second.

If things should go everytime as expected or almost as expected, gambling games wouldn't exist at all.
Even the math advantaged houses rely upon a long term edge.
And even if it would appear contradictory to what I've been sayed so far, sometimes the house hopes that a given shoe will finish ASAP.
Therefore, what not happened so far, especially whether is more "due", is likely to not present for the subsequent portions of the shoe.
More "due" could be interpreted as a kind of balancement, a strong unexpected predominance or a too huge expected predominance.

Third.

Are we willing to guess a random world per every single fkng shoe dealt just because we think that we are able to possede the instincts to do that?
If so, contact NASA or MIT and you'll get more substantial rewards than playing this silly game.

Fourth.

Any single choice we make forms the large picture. More choices = more mistakes. It's a human feature and it has a general value.
It's a proven fact that bad choices will endorse more bad choices and good choices (even made by mistake) will more likely lead to good choices.
In a sense either good and bad choices will distribute more by runs than by singles.
And to get good choices in a row we must first get an initial good choice.

Thus if the shoe we are facing isn't going toward our plan, tell the casino to fk off, that is not to play a dime.
Remember that baccarat outcomes are already preordered and nothing will change their pace.

Final note

If a bac player have found betting lines capable to get a long term edge,  this edge will be quite limited hence susceptible to great fluctuations. That's why we should think about the large picture and not about the stupi.d single shoe we're playing at.

as. 

10
Real-World Casino Action / Re: Interesting Zumma Stats
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:12:40 pm »
IMO there exists superior opportunities if you wait and monitor multiple tables. 

Yes, yes, yes and yes!!!

as.

11
Real-World Casino Action / Re: Anthropomorphizing the Game
« on: June 01, 2019, 10:04:31 pm »
Actually Junket King aka Johno, this is a good post.

When playing a strict mechanical game (and it could mean to bet every hand or only one-two hands per 2-3 shoes) any serious player should know the sd values, the different points of success, in a word the probability to be ahead or behind because such player had tested a lot of different shoes without having to bet a dime on them.
If we think the game in term of pattern ranges of probability, imo, we can't be so wrong, surely not beyond the math disadvantage.

as.
 
 

 
   

12
That line was obviosuly a sarcastic note about how is easy to distrust other's ideas and works putting atop of it the old fkng math issue saying that bac cannot be beaten.

Maybe it could.

as. 

 


13
Nice posts Al.

Now expect some people telling you that such bets have an astoundingly EV negative itlr, or that those long streaks happen very rarely. :-)

If the game isn't beatable mathematically or statistically (and of course it is) this thread should demonstrate that some betting lines may cause the house to get a bit of discomfort, albeit temporary.

as.



 


14
I am hurting today, about 1 and a half hour sleep.  What a session, what a great session.  And I did this last night because of the great email I got from AsymB, thank you buddy!  Those few sentences sent me out with the song I love in my mind, Burning Down the House.

Greeeaaat job buddy!!  :thumbsup:

I like that song too...

Now do not try to give the money back. :-)

Soon it'll come a day when casinos will be forced to treat baccarat as black jack as every single bet they are offering is 100% beatable.


as. 










 

15
It happens to everyone, Al.
Quitting as winners just to see that we would have won many more bets...
But as long as we do not have our crystal ball, this is a sure indicator that we're doing good.


as.



 

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