Quote from: brokerny on March 10, 2017, 08:20:36 PM
Regardless where they gambled at, Im sure they had big winning days, which probably put an even bigger target on their backs.

Yep. In Europe there are no many high stakes players and generally betting limits are well lower than US rooms.
Both those players wagered the maximum limit or close to the maximum limit being at the eyes of personnel "too much" right for too much time.
Moreover the number of bac tables every casino offers is very low, mostly there's just one table per casino, so the risk to get some heat is higher.
It's interesting to notice that european casinos utilize 6-deck shoes burning very few cards....

as.




   

Hi RG!

Surely you won't get worse results than betting randomly or betting an "invincible" system!

Moreover, when you flat betting you are perfectly sure you'll lose just 1.06% or 1.24% or a mix of two depending on which side you'd prefer to wager.
We know that 99.9999% of bac players itlr will lose a lot more of that percentage dictated by mathematics. (Casinos statistics register an average players loss of about 15% of the money wagered, but ties and side bets count here)

So after $100.000 money wagered into resolved BP decisions (ties don't count) you are certain to lose from $1060 to $1240. Not more, not less.


as. 

At US casinos nobody is going to ban you playing baccarat as long as you don't arise any suspicion of cheating.

However, I'm sure at least two bac players were banned from two distinct european casinos after some unbelievable winning streaks lasting more than one year.

as.




   

 

Quote from: alrelax on March 06, 2017, 04:46:36 PM
After an extremely strong section, maybe 6-9 squares or so horizontal, then it weakens off.  When and if the point values bounce back and forth with a couple/few chop-chops.  Go for a second/double and IMO that is an ideal time that seldom fails.

I'm confused.

You keep stating for years that everything will be possible anytime and no matter what and now you are suggesting that a selected strategy "seldom fails"?

What do you mean by "seldom failure"?
That in some selected situations you'll be more right than wrong?

as.

Hi soxfan!

If you have made a profit after 44.000 played hands you are up to something.

Not the holy grail, but it's quite harsh to be ahead and getting lucky after such amount of played hands.

as.






 


   






 

Quote from: ADulay on February 28, 2017, 09:55:45 PM
Wow!  BMW makes cars, too!  That's great.

AD

ahahahhh, right! 

Strategies apart, the best way to win at baccarat is either secure a small winning and promptly getting away or surviving and surviving until a good run will take place by pushing the bets with casino's money (as we have to recover in some way the "surviving mood").

When things are going bad there's no need to increase the bets hoping for something; however when things seem to go in our favor no fear to push and push.

Of course the first approach will get more small winnings with low risk whereas the second approach might get substantial winnings at the price of an higher risk.

Anyway, your idea to push the situations where P side seems (seems) to be weak is well posed.

as. 

   



 

LOL. You are right. 

Anyway, I really like your joining on the moderator's group.

And you still owe me that Benihana dinner in Vegas 

as.

Quote from: alrelax on February 28, 2017, 02:14:41 PM
Scratch the Cognac, you owe me a BMW, any model, 2016 or newer.  Thanks. 

Good choice Al.
I'd suggest a BMW i8, fantastic line and an unbelievable gas saver.

as.

Quote from: alrelax on February 27, 2017, 08:11:51 PM
My approach works far better then the average player sitting there with their score card vertical and wagering on so and so because there never was more than 3 or 2 or 4 in a row or because it cuts every time on a natural or the other 20 insane reasoning 'the' all seem to have.

Average players don't count :-)

as. 

 

I got for free three different Izak "winning systems" and, nedless to say, they don't and cannot work just from the start of the description.

If you want to contact a seller before purchasing a magical system, ask him to tell you how are the SD values registered of their holy grail.
Nobody will answer you on that.

as.



 

Quote from: alrelax on February 25, 2017, 10:51:25 PM
But why limit it only to Banker?? The exact same would also hold true for Players, Singles, or Doubles or many other things.     

Hi Al!
From a strict probability and mathematical point of view, Player cannot get any advantage over the Banker besides the situations where the deck is plentiful of small cards.
Unfortunately any card counting strategy won't give us any help about this (rare) P favourable opportunities.

Hence we must rely upon a general probability to get more Bs than Ps.
Even though it seems that the shoe will produce almost only P hands.

If we think baccarat as a game of considering Banker as our ally and Player as our enemy we are building a preordered plan in the same way any bj player consider high cards vs low cards.

At least we are mathematically reducing the house edge by a 0.18% degree.

Then there are the normal fluctuations of the game, we can easily get 2-3 or more shoes favoring the P side. Or getting shoes with a lot of consecutive B singles, and so on.

The normal deviations can be registered in many different forms: B/P hands gap, singles/doubles on any side, etc.

The deeper we want to register the different B/P outcomes, the better will be the probability to get lower deviations than expected, as any hand is quite dependent from the previous ones.

For example, one player might be ahead after one shoe played; after two shoes the number of players being ahead is logarithmic lower, up to the point where after 10 shoes played the number of winning players will be very very low, if any.

Of course everything will depend about the real number of hands wagered. Let's say any player had bet 2/3 of the total hands of every single shoe.

It's interesting to notice that on average almost no one losing player had lost the expected 1.06% or 1.24% of the total money wagered. But this has to rely upon the bad attitude of many players wanting to break even or to win a lot.

For sure and independently of the strategies involved, we also must deduce that an important role of the bet selection is working.

What worked so far now is not working. Why?

The answer is that the more we play higher will be the probability to get expected results. If we had won by following a general expected results strategy (more B than P, more B streaks than B singles, etc), we know that sooner or later such strategy will be counterbalanced by opposite results. If we had chosen to wager "actual" results, no matter how expected should be or not, we know that sooner or later such trend will be canceled by "counter" results.

Therefore there are two distinct ways of thought: betting toward expcted results and betting toward actual results.

Both reach some points, either positive or negative, but only the expected side values are mathematically known, I mean tending to get well known ratios. And naturally it takes some time to get such expected results to appear.

The problem, not an easy task to accomplish, is just to "limit" at most the random world, so letting some deviations to flow without betting. Actually many players want to get the best of any single pattern every shoe is providing or, even worse, to get expected outcomes within too short time.

The concept that after 10 or more played shoes very few players will be winning (and the losing ones are well more behind than the 1% they are entitled to) should be taken just on the opposite side of the medal.

No matter what we are playing, there are two ratios we should care of: the W/L ratio and the expected ratio of various outcomes. But always wagering Player we know that we'll get more losses than wins and vice versa. And any mix of the two can only add confusion to the whole picture.

Imo, the most important features any player should look for are the old ones: waiting and trying to get the best of the most likely outcome in its various forms.
Knowing that the heaven and the hell can only exist on the shortert terms.

as. 

     


       

   

   



     

Quote from: ADulay on February 22, 2017, 10:37:08 AM
Now "selective" Banker only betting is something completely different and not to be confused with Banker Only Every Hand.

Good point. This is the only option we have to get something from this game. Notice that "to get something" I mean certain ploys to reduce the HE up to the point where in some instances we can even invert it.

as.

Hi wewin!

I respect your opinion and I don't know where you play or have played.

Besides the many obnoxious times when the dealer take the winning bet instead of paying it or short paying the side bets, I really can't think of being ever cheated one time.

The vast majority of the baccarat money won by casinos is at high stakes tables, what's the point to "cheat" using card shufflers or by other tricks at tables where the cumulative amount wagered will be very often 1/10 or less than a single or couple high stakes bets?

We bac players should remember that everything is possible at any time, and the same it's for casinos. I mean we can expect the worst. And I did experience this despite my very long tests telling otherwise.

Is it possible to lose 24 bets in a row? Yes, it is. Very unlikely but it could happen. And it happened to a guy seated next to me that couldn't believe that doubles hadn't jump to at least a triple for 24 long spots. He shouted that he was cheated, not noticing the rest of the table won a lot of money just betting that two's won't make threes.

Anyway we never know, so it's about three years I've chosen to play only at Vegas high stakes tables where cards are shuffled manually and where in one instance a wealthy guy not even knowing the rules and betting anytime the maximum limit won $1.5 million.
Ironically he sworn to not playing baccarat anymore.
If he was genuine, it was a really bad beat for that casino.

as.   




   
   

Hi wewin!

Generally speaking, thinking that casinos do cheat is an absurdity.
Bac players lose more than what they are entitled to because they want to break even per every single losing session they experience. Moreover these players try to erase their deficit by betting less favourable options like wagering side bets without card counting, maybe hoping that a 40 to 1 payment will show up.

No matter how smart is a person, itlr B>P, B singles<B streaks and so on.

The real smart player is one who knows how much an expected positive or negative deviation could last for one shoe, for two shoes and for several shoes.

Everybody here knows that after getting a win at different degrees the most likely subsequent outcomes will be losers, no matter what are the chosen wagers. So it comes the classical suggestion to quit as winners that imo doesn't make any sense.

The rule is to get more losers than winners, so imo the best way to take is waiting to be huge fictional losers because W/L ratios cannot overcome certain given values. In a way or another.