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Gd Morning 8OR9/thx.. Good read in  your last reply re:Bankman-Fried article.

In part: "...Nearly $2 trillion in crypto market value has evaporated since November. Two bellwether digital assets Luna, a $40 billion crypto asset associated with TerraUSD, a $16 billion stablecoin designed to maintain parity with the U.S. dollar, have collapsed. Earlier this month bitcoin traded for below $20,000, its lowest level since December 2020.

But the fallout is far from complete. Earlier this month, Singapore-based Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a highly levered crypto trading firm with $200 million of exposure to Luna revealed that it was nearly insolvent...."


and then :

"...the two digital asset exchanges turned to billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX and the richest person in crypto, worth some $20.5 billion. Between FTX and his quantitative trading firm Alameda, he provided the companies with $750 million in credit lines. There is no guarantee that Bankman-Fried will recoup his investment. You know, we're willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if that's what it takes to sort of stabilize things and protect customers, he says.

Were willing to do a somewhat bad deal here, if thats what it takes to sort of stabilize things...."
[/b]

 ???SMH--If Im on a deserted island with no forms of media available and all of a sudden, the above articles floats upon the shore in a bottle--my first thought would be WHEN did Bankman-Fried short the crypto markets. lol.

------------------------------------------------------------------


Going forward and on a more positive note I would think this cleansing of weak and or fabricated Crypto Co. is exactly what the industry/ higher quality crypto-related co want.

I feel the "blockchain & related innovations" are here to stay. However, just because one buys bitcoin or other crypto companies does not mean one is necessarily investing in this future technology for doing financial transactions. In other words, If I buy bitcoin I do not receive a royalty every time someone uses a blockchain type transaction.

Right now, if I make a financial transaction with Visa and Transunion, several entities are receiving a cut from that 3.5% transaction fee. At the moment no one entity owns the one-and-only patent for crypto transactions. IOW Bitcoin owners are not making any money when I buy something with Bitcoin et al cryptos.


My opinion that "blockchain and related technology that will be developed", is here to stay is based in part to the following ideas (Just my opinions of course):

A)     Big banks and the financial industry have or are filing for the majority of patents related to this type of transactions (i.e., blockchain).

B)     The world (especially the east and very poor countries with a devalued currency) are working toward an international currency that is not totally reliant upon the USD (Pegged to USD). IMO the USD has benefitted a lot over past seven decades (post WWII) to not only being the most stable worldwide currency but in part due to it being the least-bad or least-weak currency. After the USD departed its pegging with silver (1960s) and gold(70s) one cannot ignore and certainly recognizes the erosion from inflation. However, all things considered it was indeed and still is the most stable vs any other one currency.

IMO the USD will never be completely replaced. However, I think within the next one to two decades we will see an international currency become available.

This new currency or basket-type currency for doing transactions will lend itself to the blockchain type technology. Thus, the residual companies like Bitcoin and Meta1 that survive the current anti-crypto onslaught will be in a perfect position for a part in this new global thinking.

This basket will likely involve some form of blockchain-type technology (maybe Bitcoin or similar) that is accepted in most countries. My thinking is that it will likely be tied to Gold,USD, Oil, Yuan and maybe a couple other forms of currency that has trust /global value, but most importantly, verified for its true daily value. This new form of financial transactions will be an improvement for countries with a weak currency, that may have other valuable resources: Oil, minerals,...etc, and
not-as-good for countries with a currently-perceived strong currency(Think USA /the USD, China/the Yuan,..etc).


You heard it here first. The new motto for Betselection.cc   : Tomorrows News Today. :thumbsup:


Continued Success To All,


3
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on June 29, 2022, 04:28:06 pm »
Hi all,
Good post.

ABG:
"...Considering outcomes as singles, doubles and 3+s, itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

re: and 3+s
     For clarification when u write in your posts: 3+s (Do you mean >=3 such as 3,4,5,6,...etc.  OR do you mean 4,5,6,....etc  )??


re: itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

[/color]

     Personally I perceive my hit rate  is lowest in a group of doubles (especially if Ties interspersed). Mainly due to not being able to determine if my decision making was lucid or did I just get lucky and lock on to a 2-2-2-2 early. Which implies I was just fortunate to randomly guess insync with what was randomly occurring at this particular part of shoe. 
 
Sometimes I feel it is analogous to driving while blindfolded, or maybe driving down a two-way road while straddling the middle yellow line. One can sense we are indeed still on the road but also recognize we are possibly about to hit something. However, one doesn't know if we are going to hit the left ditch, right ditch, or oncoming traffic,....etc. Either way I know the current path can't last much longer, yet Im hesitant to detour.  :)

Thx again abg.


Continued Success To All,


4
Wagering & Intricacies / Proper Foundation of Information
« Last post by alrelax on June 29, 2022, 02:24:52 am »
Make sure all of your information and beliefs come from Proper Foundation.

And as always Im talking about real casino gambling.  Im not talking about kitchen table researching or forum drama. Im talking about the decision making process with real money in a brick and mortar casino.  Im talking about how you should be making decisions and arriving at your wagers. 

Proper Foundation. Meaning, not from emotional reflections or attempt to discredit and combat chatter on the forums, or junk sources such as systems sellers and YouTube infomercials etc.  And the sad part about picking up your information and believing upon it from those sources, is a very dangerous road. If you happen to get some of your wagers correct youll have a false foundation that will set in and do a great amount of damage to any possibility you have to be on the correct road and make serious profits.

Onwards, there are three elements that must be adhered to in order to form Proper Foundation.

AUTHENTICITY - RELIABILITY - RELEVANCE

Authenticity.  The content of the information not coming from emotional reflections. Forum-based drama and of course system sellers and infomercials. Most of all, not biased based broadcast by a prejudice source.

Reliability.  Be able to recognize the information into real-time stability and consistency, that is virtually or near free from errors.

Relevance.  The comparison of the information within reliability to the actual game itself as well as your wagering style and results. Relating to timeliness, comparability and the understandability of it.

Most Important.  You must follow simple and strict perseverance, self discipline and in complete reality to remain within the guidelines of the information. THINK!





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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 29, 2022, 12:46:21 am »
Hi KFB and thanks of your inputs, I appreciated them a lot!

Think, just my opinion, that a 'something' clustered more likely situation is going to get a way less variance than an isolated 'something' less likely  situation because 'rare events come out in clusters and then they disappear for long'.

Considering outcomes as singles, doubles and 3+s, itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr.
At the same time and taking into account that the vast majority of shoes are poorly shuffled, we'd bet toward NOT getting many 1-gap double spots, especially at the wonderful 6-deck shoes where things tend to be fairly polarized.

After all, itlr we'll get a more consistent 3s number rounding the average value than doubles number.
Moreover and considering baccarat as a game full of relatively short streaks, even shoe sections rich of doubles will make many winning points (anyway there are cutoff values , so in a way or another there's very little room to get our bets losing.

Next week I'll try to summarize such different strategies, anyway the keywords are 'gaps' or 'ranges'.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on June 27, 2022, 03:24:00 pm »
Thx ABG--Several gold nuggets in your posts above.

"...  Consecutive 3 streaks do not interest us as being affected by a huge variance..."


My somewhat related thought:


     When I see an exact: 3iar with 0 ties in the string (e.g.,PPP or BBB), I perk up on that next column (theorizing that it is more likely to go 2iar or 4 iar vs not exactly 3iar again. Of course as most will agree we also should consider that it has to go through 2iar to make it to 3iar and through 2iar/3iar to potentially make it to 4iar. So several stopgates in there to prevent it from going 4iar and or 4iar+.
Possibly a wagering opportunity in there.

re: 3iar columns repeating exactly for several columns without a 2iar or 4iar:
Just my way of thinking ITLR as I view most all things bac as being a game of cycles, rotating, cyclical, asymmetrical...etc  vs a game of symmetry. Though it will often appear on the tote board to always be attempting this evening-out summary, and converging toward this "evening out", it never does exactly. Nor does it have to for us to still view as an even-chance game that is one of the most fair games in the casino.

Just an opinion.

Thx again ABG for all your time/posts.

Continued Success,




7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 27, 2022, 12:52:35 am »
If I understand the latest it would be the following. There has to be three or more repetitive winning hands and then youre looking at the cut. If it makes one or two on the cut, then the following would have to cut again and your trigger would be on the third spot to be a repetitive hand.

Example.

BBBB
P or PP
BB - >>>>(this spot) <<<< Is the hand to wager on.



So Asym, on a score card laid horizontally or the main road, it would look like the picture below.  You are referring to the spot to wager where I put the X, CORRECT?

(Attachment Link)

Am I correct?

Yeah Al, you are perfectly correct.

Let math experts to say otherwise: 'it could happen that after a 3 streak and a 1/2 pattern, everytime a precise double instead of a 3s streak will show up clustered for long'.
My answer: 'Really, you fkng dumbas.ses?'

Second more polite answer:

-There's an average number of 3s happening at every shoe dealt in the fk universe. So if the number of 3s are going to get a  lower value than average, it means that more singles and doubles clusters must happen. But only half of the times we'll find reasons to bet the above trigger.
On the other end, if a greater than avg number of 3s streaks is going to happen, it means that 3s are more likely coming out consecutively clustered and we won't bet a dime on that.

- Any card distribution (even whether manually and voluntarily placed knowing our strategies) will get a hard time to form 3s streaks followed by a single/double than by another double for long not fitting a kind of 'clustered' streaks pattern (collateral strategy).
In the meanwhile, 'non acute' players (99.9% of bac players at least) will bet toward streaks no matter what or to get a steady single/double line of some kind.

- Quite likely a possible 'losing' distribution is whenever 3s streaks are going to happen by a 1:2 improbable long occurence (average value is 1:3), that is when after a 3 streak a couple of 1/2 events show up making the above trigger as loser.
Anyway just a double is going to make us losers. Not mentioning that a 'clustered single/double player will be winning at all those spots.

- The more probable occurence of such trigger is 1 and not 0. At most situations, no need to chase unlikely trigger situations higher than 1 unless you've registered that too many '1' won't' be balanced by higher values.
Notice that a fair amount of times a single or a double happening at the start of the shoe won't be 1/2 clustered, so followed by a 3 streak, and again a 1 gap pattern happened.

Practical guidelines

if you like to set up a single/double strategy getting 3s limit 'walls' (so stopping or starting to bet up to get a single or a double happening), you know you'll get an avg amount of winning streaks vs losing streaks per shoe.
Of course it's way more likely to get a 1/2 line prolonging whenever a 3 streak will be followed by a single than by a double.
Consecutive 3 streaks do not interest us as being affected by a huge variance.
And obviously more likely (p=0.75) patterns will come out clustered and not singled or, at worst, as singled losers than multiple losers.
Nevertheless, this strategy will face the probability that most shoes are going to get at least one losing spot along the way (that is our beloved 3/1-2/3 trigger).

So we must choose to hope that something weird (albeit being 'natural') won't show up or that a relative unlikely scenario will come out sooner or later.

So let's go back to theory.

Differently than doubles, 3s are more consistent in their appearance (lower sd values): so itlr strong deviated values are more likely to affect doubles than 3s.
It's true that in rare cirucmstances such feature will be disappointed, yet if we'd make as a first condition to bet a 3 streak happening followed by a double (second condition), variance will be efficiently limited.

Now we get a random walk having its peaks of winning and losing hands distributed very differently than a possible 50/50 independent game and not necessarily taking into account the math edge favoring B side.

Instead of verifying such claim but following the scientifical method, let's try to falsify this hypothesis, for example setting up the same random walk now applied at doubles or whatever pattern you'd like to use.

as.
8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 26, 2022, 10:54:45 pm »
Surely a perceived edge is diluted the more decks a casino uses.

Exactly.

If a finite number of 'key' cards move around a more limited field, odds that 'no key cards' distribution segments will whimsically affect the real outcomes will be way restricted than when using a larger field (more decks).

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on June 26, 2022, 10:38:48 pm »
"impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly."

    Do you mean in any one full shoe, or say within 3 spots,  5 spots? 8 spots? Other?
I do agree with your thesis above. Im just wondering what has been your experience with the upper end extreme u typically observe. In your opinion what are the merits for: Choosing to do a slow negpro or steep negpro til u catch a W, or no negpro=Flat, or Pospro, when pursuing this keyhole spot for the W?


HI KFB!!

With some experience and after having collected a large sample of live data, you'll see how much average 'concentrated' shifted situations will happen in relationship of the actual shoe.
At most situations, you do not need to spot them by quantity (long streaks of something) just by quality.
Pros I know do not bet that something must happen for long, instead that clusters of anything move and stop within 'more likely terms' surpassed whom they are not interested to bet 'em anymore.
For example, the 3/1-2/3 specific pattern obviously won't show up per every shoe dealt, even though the number of 3s is higher than average (as more 3s are showing up, more back-to-back 3s are going to happen, so enlarging the room for 1/2 clusters greater than 1).
Since the 'enemy' counterpart of 3/1-2/3 specific trigger is 3/1-2/2, we know some shoes will produce a 'long clusters of the latter pattern, making worthless or at least quite risky to set up a negpro on such shoes.
In some way, we should do a lot better to wait that a 'shorter' amount than average of 3s will be followed by the non bettable 3/1-2/1 pattern at some levels, then wagering when that final 1 becomes a 2 so enticing a 3 streak formation.
Notice that we could act in the same way by wagering doubles, but those patterns are more affected by volatility as they are more likely to happen (or not, when cards are so clumped to produce just singles or 3s).
The avg 3s rate per shoe is 8.75, so a possible negpro must take into account either this value and, more importantly, how many 'losing' patterns (3/1-2/2) had happened so far. (Along with other features I don't want to discuss here).

About 6-deck shoes vs 8-deck shoes

When facing 6-deck shoes, best variables to look for is whether shoes are manually shuffled and if very few cards are cut off from the play.
If those two parameters are fulfilled, it's virtually impossible to lose ITLR as patterns will be more consistent than at the 8-deck counterpart.
Meaning that many univocal patterns (and there are many 'clusters' to look for) will stand longer than at 8-deck shoes.
Now the 'quantity' takes a primary role about 'quality'.

It's now that the already mentioned 'code' strategy (if properly evaluated) will get the best of it by its various 'number' steps distribution.
Different code values move around the probability to be clustered or not, at the same time a perfect balanced code distribution is out of order. So some numbers must present clustered, especially if we merge two or more numbers together.

as.
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Wagering & Intricacies / The Most Important Thing. A Money Management Method.
« Last post by alrelax on June 25, 2022, 08:22:37 pm »
One way or another, no matter what your volume play is, as well as the dollar value you should seriously consider the following.

Be Super Smart In Your Money Management Method.

You must reinvest your win money back with your bank roll from your independent sessions. If you are not and only building your buy in with great hopes and dreams to clean out the casino and get rich, your time is extremely limited until you go bust.

Once you have a workable solid and real Money Management Method, you have a chance to really venture down the path as a series player and be able to hold winnings.

One of your first tasks is to find a source of income to fuel your initial bank roll. Once you do you should without a second thought subscribe to a Money Management Method that will assist you to protect and grow your bank roll. It does not make your wagering decisions what so many think, that a Money Management Method does. I have written about this in other parts of the forum where youll find my thoughts and excellent Money Management Methods that work.

Growing Your Bank Roll.

Remember that buy ins are always and have to be a percentage of your bank roll. Buy ins and bank rolls are two separate and two very different items.

You must adhere to buy in amounts off your bank roll, that will allow you to level and plateau yourself to add comfort and security to your play. If you can do that, you just put yourself leaps and bounds ahead of the highest amount of players attempting to win money.

You will be developing skills to allow you to fuel your bankroll, protect your buy in and have the chance to wager with the smallest chance of loss.

You Must Prepare For Adversity.

Winning and profits are not a one-way street, NEVER. If you are finished reading, subscribing to and believing drama driven attempts to discredit by others on forums or the junk sources such as newbie system sellers and YouTube infomercials, all junk, you must understand the following.

Unexpected situations and events will occur in play. They do and they have to and they always will. I personally feel if you are ready and you are researching this, you have already lost previous bank rolls . After all, newbies and inexperienced people playing would never be here if they continued winning and found the holy grail that does not exist.

No experienced player, successful or not, can foresee if adversity  and negativity will occur when sitting down and buying in.  Re-read that a couple of times.

I will say, strategies and the real-time application of those, will have to be developed and believed by each of us, the strategies consist of your Money Management Method, strict adherence to it, optimizing the wins within a session and the ability to not be overcome by the numerous emotional events that will happen. You will be challenged consistently with wins as well as losses while playing. But, this is where a real Money Management Method will 100% protect you.

You Cannot Risk What You Are Not Willing To Lose.

No matter what all those infomercials, system sellers and forum drama experts will swear by, it is not true.  There are no mechanical systems or triggers in play that will guarantee winning. Period.  Once you understand and subscribe to that, you have potential to be a serious player.

Gambling is Gambling. No matter what you want to believe or not. Same as owning a business, at times you will make great profits, other times you will make small profits, other times you will break even and yes, other times you will lose money, no matter how hard and how well you serve your clients/customers. Business owners have a bank roll as well and it is always at risk and they are constantly adding to it or removing from it for their business survival. When their bank roll goes away, they go out of business. Casino gaming is no different.

There is really only one sentence here to factually describe what is 100% true and will never change in casino play. Wager with the money that you are willing to lose.

Note:  There are certainly ways you can give yourself a very large advantage and if you couple a good Money Management Method with extreme emotional control of your winning and losing, you will be able to realize the benefits, advantages and skills that will earn you win money and be able to retain it and use it.

Note:  I have written about and detailed out M.M.M.s on the board here.  Here is one thread that will give you some insight to a M.M.M. and its intricacies.

     https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.0




 



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