Key statements from Konnikova:

"...Maria Konnikova isn't afraid to call out the cheating that goes on in poker, and casinos' unwillingness to deal with the problem. .."


"... Her book about cheating includes poker, baccarat, and sporting events; tennis has had some problems. Even fly fishing has..."


"When I meet people and they ask what my new book is about, I say cheating. Their faces light up and say they have a story for me." Konnikova said, laughing.  ..."



I speak with a lot of casino executives and one of their main concerns is the collusion between player/dealers. This goes on all the time and often is a large syndicate or group of players in a specific region of the USA.

I play Bac with an octogenarian that has played with many of the all time greats in poker. Most of  you from the Poker circuit would readily recognize his name. According to him many players constantly try to cheat or "fudge" a little(Not just poker players but Bac, roulette, craps,..etc). It is his opinion most casinos know who they are but just choose to monitor for awhile until they can ID more in the syndicate.


https://cdcgaming.com/maria-konnikova-poker-champ-describes-humble-beginnings-and-cheating-problem/

This is the main point of the link:

BetMGM and Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa in Atlantic City are announcing the launch of Dual Play Baccarat. Customers on BetMGM Casino can now play at the same tables with players that are at the physical Borgata Atlantic City.

Evolution Gaming is partnered with both BetMGM and Borgata, which will bring the action to those who wish to play at online. Cameras will be displayed at the tables, making it a first-class, and real-time experience for those virtually. The game is played with a human dealer at the Borgata.


     Personally I would find this acceptable. IMO this could be the wave of the future. I have been discussing a similar setup with an indian tribe in the Midwest. They have several casinos within one region of one state/another just across the state line. The above would be easy to implement. The feedback Im receiving is the CEO of gaming operations does not like the volatility from the Baccarat Hold vs other table games. Meaning Bac players wager much larger vs other games.

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https://www.playnj.com/news/betmgm-and-borgata-atlantic-city-introduce-omnichannel-dual-play-live-dealer-baccarat/87823/

Asymmetry/symmetry considerations about bac successions

Symmetrical situations are slight less likely than asymmetrical situations and of course asymmetrical situations cannot stand for long most of the times.
More precisely asymmetrical situations will come out more probably (so more clustered) than symmetrical situations, anyway we have to respectively approximate at best the asym/sym appearance by setting up a "cutoff" value as just one hand might easily change a more natural (expected) flow into a moderate/strong deviation pattern. Obviously we're way more interested to avoid moderate/strong symmetrical distributions than stopping the asymmetrical counterpart.

Suppose we have two fighting A and B events (patterns, situations) forming an original succession and several derived sub successions.

We might empirically consider as symmetrical (s) those patterns:

1s) ABAA.. and BABB..

2s) AABBA and BBAAB

3s) AAA..BBB.. and BBB..AAA..

On the other end we'll get the asymmetrical (a) patterns counterpart being:

1a) ABB or BAA

2a) AABA or BBAB and AABBB.. or BBAAA..

3a) AAA..BA or AAA..BBA and BBB..AB or BBB..AAB

Once a pattern had surpassed the 2-step level we have taken as a "cutoff" value and dictating whether a pattern is either labeled as asymmetrical or as symmetrical, we're not interested to know what the fk happens next, unless a new opposite category shows up.

Now we have transformed a BP succession into an Asym/Sym sequence that is slight less likely to produce strong overalternating moods, especially if we are taking care of the different 1-step and 2-step probability situations.

That means that asymmetrical or symmetrical spots are more probable to produce clusters at any side of the spectrum and when they're not the asymmetrical subtle force itlr will deviate the results by forming low-level more likely ranges.

What is really interesting to notice after thousands and thousands of real live shoes tested is that whenever a given precise Asym/Sym pattern level hadn't shown up so far, we should consider it as a kind of "not existent" pattern so increasing the probability of other patterns coming out.

As a side note we've found particularly useful to read and study the Yerkes-Dodson law (1908) as without the use of a software baccarat remains a strong human challenge vs a "machine".

as.

Hi lovepreaks!

Basically 5-card hands are the core of the asymmetry whereas 4-card and 6-card hands constitute the symmetry. Of course we are interested about the "ranges" of such different situations transformed into actual results so we're obviously forced to consider asymmetry and symmetry at the real BP sequence and derived successions.

It's a fact that at baccarat the least distribution to show up is a kind of "overalternating" mood of two fighting opposite events; an example is when consecutive doubles come out in a row thus the CFS is 1 per every two hands dealt (+-+-+-..).
The most part of the remaining distributions are made of univocal distributions getting low/moderate levels of deviation (++, +++ or -- and ---).

When complex patterns are considered, better will be the prediction as whenever many hands are needed to produce a pattern, the overall asymmetrical strenght will get rid of both some "incidental results" and natural variance.

Progressively wagering B after P and PP is not an option that I recommend as those are patterns too easy to come out so lacking the "complex" requisite.   
   
I have lost a lot of money by betting purely based on emotions

We all did.
Casinos prosper about players' emotions a lot more than by exploiting the math edge.

Baccarat is a strict technical game where successions are somewhat "biased" by more likely ranges that have nothing to do with mere math; it's up to us to define what are the more probable ranges intervening in the process and without any doubt in many instances best move to take is to stay still.

More later

as.

"Is asymmetry defined by a result involving 5 cards, while symmetry refers to results with 4 or 6 cards? After identifying symmetric and asymmetric results, do you sometimes distinguish asymmetry and collect statistics when P and B follow a symmetric pattern? After that, when a certain result appears, is B progression betting after a single P or PP one of the methods AsymBacGuy refers to?

I have lost a lot of money by betting purely based on emotions. Now, I want to engage in an approach that I can at least understand to some extent. Since I am weak in math and statistics, I learn best through repetitive practice, which is why I am asking about this method.

Shoe divided into 4 Sections.  See picture posted.

I entered the shoe right after the 8-IAR player streak, bought in as soon as the single Natural Banker appeared.

Lost my first hand to players, wagered Banker base bet, Fortune 7, heavenly 9s and blazing 7s. Next hand I hit my first Fortune 7, BOOM!

I looked and studied the previous play posted on the scoreboard, which I don't always do and don't always subscribe to, but I did. Chops, 2s, 3s and strong players. I missed the 3 card 200:1 blazing 7s, as you see right after the panda 8 at the start of the 8 players IAR.

My decision was only wagering banker base bets and 3 side bets for one section at least. Reason being, equalization and strong platforms forming. Like I've said in the past until I was blue in the face, "Wager with what is being presented". And to me that's what was being presented.

Lost two players. Won one bankers. Lost two players. I won a 3 card 9 on player side.

Boom!  Another Fortune 7 and two more bankers. Also the tie was a beautiful 50:1 two card 7-7 win!

Lost the two players. Won a bank. Lost three players.

Then a banker win.  Won 3 card 9 on bankers and another banker.

Then another Fortune 7 for my scrumptious amazing hit!

Lost two players and won the 3 card 9 on players side as well.

Won a banker.

Lost a player. Then won a beautiful 75:1 on the 3 card 9-9 tie.  (A few of us had terrific amount of energy while the rest were losing. What happened on this hand, I would like to say. The players pull a blackjack and the bankers had a 9 and a 2. The players pull an 8 and those wagering on the players were fist pumping their hands in the air and telling everybody how they won the hand.  Myself and one other had maximum Wager on the heavenly 9s.  We look at each other and call for a snowman and we both stand up and tell everybody, "it's not over til it's over". And sure enough the dealer flops a snowman, gotta love it!).

Lost the next 2players. Won a banker. Lost a player. Won the 3 bankers with parlays. Stopped didn't play the last three or four hands of the shoe, which it was the same as what just happened.

NEW SHOE:

Next shoe played the first 10 hands. I have written until I was blue in the face about the first 10 to 16 hands in the past. Research it and see.

First hand was a 2 card 7-7 tie, a beautiful 50:1 win.  Won the 2 Fortune 7s, BADDA BING BADDA BOOM!. Won the 3 card 9 on the playerers side. Stopped end of session.  Won 7 bankers and 2 Fortune 7s and the 3 card 9 on the players side.  Enough.  Done.  If I played longer, I knew I couldn't reset to what is the equivalent of starting a new session.  My next session in a week or so, I most certainly can.  That's me, I know how I am. 

NOTE:  Resetting yourself and being oblivious to recent wins is vital to maintaining a clear thought vision, IMO.   

Yes I wanted to play more. Yes I had visions of winning more. But I was in reality, took the handsome profit cashed out and left.

The game is Baccarat.  You decide how to wager, when to wager and how long to stay.

POST CASINO:  HMoney, another and myself went to one of the restaurants we favor to chill out.  We had a special blend of Vietnamese iced coffee that brews at your table and PHO.  It drips and drips into the concentrated cream and then you stir it extensively.  Then pour into the tall ice filled glass. Add a bit of iced water.  See pictures.  Talk, chill and leave the casino out of it.

BTW, thanks for your interest in reading my pages and keeping to read this wonderful site.
400k views are a very good accomplishment, thanks.

If anyone has a bit of hope to beat this game (and taking back the money lost), well, you are in the best place to get some hints. By far. And, more importantly, for free.

There are very illustrious players posting here: Alrelax and KFB. Both are very experienced players and at baccarat experience and proper knowledge is everything.

We know that as long as a verified math propensity isn't devised and proved, well we're talking about bighorn.stuff, but that's an advantage for us.
At baccarat we can play mathematically "wrong" and betting thousands by being labeled as clowns, no problem with that.

After all, not every baccarat supervisor will be 100% certain that the game is unbeatable.
And they are right. 

as.

That's good Al, we'll wait for your link

HERE: ((With reasoning, not armchair quarterbacking).

https://betselection.cc/actual-baccarat-shoes/think-and-be-smart/msg72689/#msg72689

Baccarat results are distributed by a kind of an on/off model but the average card distribution is not, meaning that some distributions are more likely than others.
That means that in the short/intermediate terms a slight but constant force will polarize the results by more likely ranges that of course will be "almost" neutralized by those not average shoes deviating at various levels from the norm.

In a nutshell our betting options are restricted into three different categories:

a) A pattern or two patterns are going to be clustered at least one time (a1); then we'll get a2, a3, etc. clustered scenarios;

b) A pattern is going to be isolated (I), that is followed by an opposite pattern;

c) A pattern or (more unlikely) two patterns had never shown up so far (N).

We've seen that average shoes will more likely include a1, a2, a3 and I patterns, whatever arranged (permutation issue); N is the pivotal factor to get most of our edge as an asymmetrical world is destined to get "silent" the remaining elements so endorsing the probability that all possible other patterns will come out.
Now we shouldn't be worried about the precise pattern's shape (a1, a2, a3 or I) coming out, we'd just try to get rid of the pattern that had never shown up so far, meaning that it's just a "level" consideration to be made and obviously it's better to wait a given pattern to be built before thinking to place a bet.

By doing this we're limiting the randomness world and exploiting an average asymmetrical card distribution as "silent" elements will let the remaining patterns to be more clustered than average.

Obviously up to a point as low numbers (I, a1, a2 and a3) will be slight more probable than huge numbers.

Notice that even if casinos virtually want to deal "all patterns" being balanced, such thing comes out at our favor as now pattern ranges are more limited than average.

So the main group of fatal mistakes to do are chasing what didn't appear so far and hoping that a given univocal pattern will come out "too" long.

Examples.

Shoe #1 (many hands were discarded at the start of the shoe--precious hint).

I-I-I-I-I-I-a3-a3-I-a1-I-a1.

Think of every element coming out, not knowing what will come out next: Are we going to bet towards a2?

Shoe #2.

a2-a1-a1-a3-I-a1-I-I-I-a1-I.

In this shoe every element had come out, anyway just one deviated pattern happened (a3) and at the intermediate/final portion of the shoe only low number patterns happened (I or a1).

When in doubt go either for the silent pattern to prolong its absence or towards low numbers (that is anything but a a3).

Mix every possible pattern whatever you want, itlr either one or two silent patterns will happen for a decent time or, more likely, low numbers (I and a1 OR a1 and a2) will come out clustered at least one time.

Such propensity doesn't work ALL OF THE TIMES but MOST OF THE TIMES, so capable to reach and surpass the famous B 51.3% and P 50.1% probability cutoff values worth of playing a sure fkng indeniable EV+ game.

See you next week

as.

I have a perfect example!!!

I will post it under my section with a board of the actual shoe. 

Not patting myself on the back, but I did extremely well and only another 2 people did.  The rest lost or wagered against it all. 

If I didn't remove myself from desire and prediction, I would not have profited nearly as much.  With a possibility of getting sucked in, if I gave back a considerable amount of the win.  Maybe you guys don't, but I do all too often. 

I will post a link here as well to the thread.

CLICK HERE:  https://betselection.cc/actual-baccarat-shoes/think-and-be-smart/msg72689/#msg72689