A progressive multilayered plan based upon the shoe "average" card distribution

Suppose that we feel so confident about the game that we want to increase significantly the number of bets placed, now by quitting our beloved flat betting scheme.

Our very large live shoes sample will constitute the basis and we'll try to manipulate the most deviated shoes into consecutive or short gap situations, so to test whether not average shoes can destroy a progressive plan.

More later

as.

7-20-22.

Why?  I don't know, but the few times I observe I would witness those hit.

A Clark County District Court judge has ruled that Las Vegas-based gaming equipment manufacturer Light & Wonder jumped the gun by marketing a no-commission baccarat game from the British Columbia Lottery Corp. called Ruyi Baccarat before an agreement it had with a rival gaming provider had expired.

Read On:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/judge-rules-vegas-gaming-company-breached-agreement-by-marketing-baccarat-game-3316135/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=recommend

See attached picture of mine, I play on a Light & Wonder 5 Treasures.

The last couple of months have reflected Atlantic City casinos' offseason period. December didn't change much as the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported that properties produced $231.8 million in December revenue.

Atlantic City casinos generated $2.82 billion in 2024 earnings. It's a 1.1% decrease from 2023 when the industry recorded $2.85 billion.

The retail industry finished just ahead of New Jersey online casinos in December, which set another record last month by posting $228 million. After slipping to iGaming revenue for the first time ever in October, Atlantic City has been able to fend off the vertical in each of the last two months.

As the heart of the offseason continues, it'll remain a tough task to do so.

AC casinos slightly increase from November

The 3.5% month-over-month increase from November likely saved the retail industry from falling behind online casinos for the second time ever. Atlantic City casinos posted $223.9 million in November.

Despite the increase on a month-over-month basis, properties remained flat year-over-year, showing a 0.3% decline from December 2023. Jane Bokunewicz, faculty director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming, Hospitality and Tourism (LIGHT) at the Stockton University School of Business, said in a statement about the status of the retail industry:

"The December calendar did not fall favorably this year for Atlantic City operators. ... Internet gaming, which does not seem to be impacted by the number of weekends in the month in the same way that in-person gaming is, predictably showed a year-over-year increase for the month."

The weekends are a key component to AC casinos. The city had four full weekends in December. Perhaps the holiday provided that slight bump last month for AC operators.

Concerns that online casinos are cannibalizing AC casinos?

It's no secret that iGaming operators are taking the gambling market by storm in states where it is legal, especially in New Jersey. That has brought on fears about the vertical cutting into Atlantic City properties.

Bokunewicz clearly admits to the rapid popularity of online casinos. However, she's not hitting the panic button in Atlantic City, either:

"New Jersey was a fast mover when it came to innovative new gaming products, such as internet gaming, and the state seems to be reaping the benefits of this. The industry is evolving and changing. These new products are very popular and do not seem to have reached their peak.

"At the same time, brick-and-mortar revenues have been relatively flat. They are not showing signs of proportionate decline, which we'd expect if cannibalization were an issue."

Both verticals, but especially AC casinos, will "need to stay on top of emerging trends and responsive to changes in customer preferences," Bokunewicz said.

She also warned against the potential competition the industry could face in light of New York's downstate casinos.

Breaking down Atlantic City casino December revenue

Casino Name.  Numbers to match the 4 areas below from left to right.

Total Gaming Win    Table Games    Poker    Slot Machines

Borgata    $62,727,821 $18,935,367 $1,125,558
$42,666,896

Hard Rock    $42,847,522    $13,066,813  (No Poker) $29,780,709

Resorts    $12,366,684    $2,577,693 (No Poker)  $9,788,991

Ocean Casino    $34,679,044    $7,787,019 (No Poker)  $26,892,025

Harrah's    $19,287,538 $3,709,048    $222,997
$15,355,493

Tropicana    $19,898,558 $5,078,712    $145,393    $14,674,453

Caesars    $19,013,828    $6,808,858 (No Poker)  $12,204,969

Golden Nugget    $10,923,090    $2,419,937  (No Poker)  $8,503,153

Bally's    $10,008,814    $1,903,641  (No Poker)  $8,105,173

Total All Casinos  $231,752,899    $62,287,089    $1,493,948    $167,971,862

Most new shooters (and many "experienced" shooters) have a major fault with their grip.

In my duties as a Range Safety Officer and Match Director I get to see many new shooters coming into the sports and they are kind of taken aback at their dismal performance the first time they try any of the popular shooting sports.

The usual reason is a poor grip setup.

There are several thousand videos out there that demonstrate whatever the current popular handgun grip is and most of them are pretty good but it still boils down to the individual has to be able to change their poor grip for a good one.

The second reason is generally because the person may not be shooting a sidearm that works well with their hands and overall body strength.

Lots of older shooters, especially women, will show up with a revolver that is either too large for them or the trigger weight is so heavy that they can't pull the trigger!  My lady is like that.  Her late husband bought her a nice 5 shot revolver that is the right size for her hands but she simply cannot pull the trigger on it.

We eventually got her a small footprint Glock that merely needs 5.5 lbs to pull the trigger and she can do that with no problem.

The other big problem we see if shooters who have purchased a sidearm, got a license of some sort, depending on where they live, and then head off to the range and shoot up a box of ammunition.

They declare themselves "good to go" and never get to experience anything other than a "static range" where you shoot down a lane at a close up target.

When they get to something that involves actually moving and shooting or getting out of the way while shooting, they realize how really unprepared they are for carrying a sidearm.

Many even get rid of their current sidearm and get a new one as they realize they bought a sidearm based on advertising and not what they need for the intended tasks.  This happens a LOT.

Anyway, to get back on track. . . . .

Check to make sure you have a secure and proper grip.  This will solve a myriad of problems.

Then make sure the tool you're using is what you can work with, not what the advertising in the gun magazines say you need.

I'll see if I can drag up another video one of these days that's worth viewing.  Most of mine are pretty dull but every now and then we get a funny one for sure.

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Highly recommend without question!

Follow up from my earlier post#64 up above.

KungFuBac:
"...As BTC started rising the past couple weeks BITI started dropping. I tried to get it at 25.55 but didn't get a strike that day. Last Wednesday(11/13) my price of $25.05 was triggered. It actually dropped on down to 24.40 or so I believe. Anyway , I was satisfied to get in at 25.05 and immediately set a sell price at .0735% profit. It(like BTC) is very volatile so I never leave it just setting idle(no trades on it) as alot of movement when our markets are closed(and BTC is live)..."

    My first target finally hit(It took 2months) as my sale of BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin) triggered at >=26.90 this past week(thurs or fri)  produced  a >= .0735% Yield. I thought it would hit within 24-30days. I didn't check to see the exact hit price but somewhere between 26.90--27.05. I just happened to get a notice of the transaction. I only sold 20% of my initial stake purchased at 25.05.

* I had actually tried to get another tier below my initial buy level. I placed a Buy at 19.80 for an additional 1/6th of my initial amount. Then raised that addendum Buy to 20.80 as BITI initially started moving downward to 22-23 range but then started back up so I raised up from that 19.80. I just didn't want a big gap between entry and secondary tier levels.

So I still own 80% of my initial purchase at 25.05. Who know BTC could be at 100K tomorrow(I think it was 84K on 3/1/25). So my BITI will likely be very volatile going forward. I have several tier levels already entered for SaleOrders for huge gains(Im optimistic I will awaken some morning and see that Bitcoin has tanked). Which will mean my BITI skyrocketed.

Im not too overly concerned (Not very much invested) so will patiently wait(For years if required). I do indeed perceive Bitcoin could go much higher. Though I expect it to plummet and gyrate(maybe several times) prior to reaching its apex years down the road.

Good luck to all the Bitcoiners(and to the BITI buyers).

   

It's a honor for me to be here sharing ideas with KFB and Alrelax (and some others), true real world class experts (and foremost real players as we are).

KFB wrote:

Though your post isn't about Ties. When debating coin flips with Bac or other supposedly even-chance games I always remind the other person that coins don't have Ties(land on their edge). Ties' affect on the overall outcomes are often overlooked IMO. Especially their influence on length of streaks. It is my opinion Ties absorb potential slightly more from one side.

Excellent point, IMO.

Always considering ties as a kind of "neutral" outcome constitutes a possible mistake; there are no evidences that a baccarat betting model/approach isn't affected by ties, actually and accordingly with other scholars we have found that shoes particularly full of ties are less detectable than "poor or average tie" shoes.

Unless a player is mainly interested to get comps, I'd suggest to avoid to wager at those heavy tie shoes as more often than not the entire picture is somewhat blurred by a more random (so undetectable) production.

as.

For example take the results table two posts above.
Say we're betting towards 0 or 1 at the very first occasion of every shoe dealt.
21 times out of 133 no 0 or 1 had shown up, of course that means that per every no 0-1 situation, we are going to lose 4 hands in a row.
Theorically all those 21 times could come out consecutively so destroying every sophisticated multilayered betting plan (well prior to that 21 cutoff point).

On the other end, if 21 times out of 133 are losing hands (2) clumped together, we'll expect the remaining winning hands to be astoundingly clustered.

Moreover notice that 36 times out of 133 there are no consecutive doubles for the entire shoe.
Then and at any stage of the shoe, the more probable "number" to encounter is 1 and of course number 1 doesn't fight with 0 but only with number 2.

So let's discard all 0s and see how many times 1 and 2 come out at the very first step of any shoe dealt:

- 74 times a 1 number came out;

- 20 times a 2 number came out.

Short term variance?
Bighorn.sh.it.

Again "unusual" card distributions could come out in a row, but at the end the asymmetrical average shoe composition will make more probable to cross low levels of so called "symmetry" than the opposite situation.

Do we want to consider the second step of any shoe dealt?

Now we get:

- 38 times a 1 number came out;

- 13 times a 2 number came out.

Even though now proportionally taken 2>1 (just for one step) we see that those patterns are roaming around the neutral cutoff point, meaning that strong deviations privileging the symmetry do not take the room of the more likely asymmetrical situations.

In fact even the third step (when applicable) is shifted towards the 1 number and not towards the 2 number.

17 times a 1 number came out;

4 times a 2 number came out.

Those simple examples should give the idea that more selected will be our betting plan better will be our positive results, variance considered.

Asymmetry will always reigns supreme over the symmetry. Yesterday, now and in the future.
Even if a card distribution is voluntarily manipulated to get long symmetrical patterns for long.
A theorical (illegitimate) thing that could easily bypassed by building some random walks derived by the original succession.

as.