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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 02:56:35 PM
Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone????

Thx in advance, kfb

Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: Two Vegas casinos fell vic...
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 02:39:00 PM
Follow up to above MGM story on cyber attacks.
I saw the following story yesterday (9/26/23). It's interesting as I have a neighbor that started a cyber security business a couple years ago. When I first mentioned the MGM story a few days ago his first statement was: "I can assure you there is more to the story. MGM patrons' personal info has also been hacked."

According to him these cyber-attacks are nearly always by groups (Domestic/International) that are involved in other crimes (sex trafficking, laundering money, drug trades,..etc), and not just some 8th grader playing around at night in his bedroom just seeing who all he can hack.

He also said sometimes these large corporations feign cyber-attacks to cover up their own mess that is about to be discovered.
He said the hackers always get caught/prosecuted but often not for 2-5years because governments want to watch them and prosecute for the other crimes too (At least in the USA).


Continued Success,
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: HOW TO PLAY BACCARAT AND W...
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 02:24:53 PM
I agree 8OR9 and Asym.

As an addendum thought. I'm always amazed at people that will attend the casinos "FREE" class to learn how to play certain table game (i.e. Bac, BJ, Craps,..etc). Its funny the casino will often offer these free classes on a Tuesday(slow day) to also benefit from getting more patrons.

My second amazement is that a gamer would show up at a casino with money to "learn" how to play a game against their nemesis(casino) and taught by said nemesis.

Continued Success,
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
Last post by KungFuBac - Yesterday at 03:28:13 AM
"Nobody has ever bet enough on a winning horse." – Anonymous
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - September 25, 2023, 02:05:08 AM
Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)

We have a strong belief that the 'cut' doesn't significantly change the "natural" flow of the outcomes for the already mentioned "alignment" factor. At least for our algos prediction.

Long term studies made on large samples of distinct categories enticed us to think that one algorithm performs significantly better at machines shuffled shoes, meaning that to get a substantial edge over the house just one algorithm random walk will get the best of it, so capable to nimbly overcome the natural negative deviations.

On the other end, manually shuffled and (at a lesser level) preordered shuffled shoes sometimes might pose a serious threat on the main algorithm action so luring the back-up alg to work. Hence complicating things a bit.

Don't worry: casinos do not give a lesser damn about this, they know that more shoes are offering in very restricted times, greater will be their probability to get profits.
And shuffling machines will perfectly fit this task.
Since players' aim isn't certified by math we're sure machines are making unbeatable our main algorithm and I'm not joking about this.

Generally speaking, manually shuffled shoes considered under our main algorithm lens could be a heaven or a hell as more likely affected by a moderate or strong unrandomness tending to provide longer positive or negative streaks than expected.
Good news is that the backup algorithm is able to catch a slight greater amount of positive than negative situations (at the cost that the main alg had to previously lose some spots before we consider to utilize the B plan).

Preordered shuffles where most money is wagered upon are a bit more intricated to be assessed as we do not know the visual source of shuffling.
Anyway we have reasons to think that casinos' goal is to offer shoes as perfectly random distributed as they can, well knowing that math edge + randomness = 100% unbeatability.

Actually a strong 'seemingly' randomness is what the main algorithm looks for: in fact an optimal randomness is unbeatable only when a perfect independent production source is acting per every hand dealt, thus giving a fkng damn about the average key cards impact and/or the natural math asymmetrical features happening along the way. Moreover giving a lesser damn about the "density" of the asymmetrical and symmetrical outcomes.
But all those parameters are considered irrelevant (besides the obvious B long term propensity) by our math and gambling expert fkng losers.
But not by our long term winning algorithms.

Naturally and to state that, we know how machines shuffle the cards and obviously we know by a fair degree of precision that preordered shoes are coming out from machine shufflers.

So as long as a machine is involved to provide outcomes, long term probability to make our main algorithm to lose will be very close to 0.

When manually shuffled shoes seem to get unprofitable the main algorithm random walk's action, it's time to utilize the backup algorithm. Or, naturally, to consider as unplayable that shoe.

Problem is that without using an illegal software, riding two different algos will easily lead to a lot of mistakes as the different algos' rhythms need plenty of attention to be properly registered.
This is the only downside of such long term EV+ plan.

Algorithms do not guess or hope for anything, they just suggest to bet EV+ spots.

Of course we're just clowns, baccarat remains an unbeatable game.
In the meanwhile we collect the short term positive variance (LOL)

AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - September 24, 2023, 08:55:14 PM
Very soon a brief discussion about how much the baccarat 'source' (SM machines, manual shuffling, etc) has a sensibile impact over the outcomes.


Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: HOW TO PLAY BACCARAT AND W...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - September 24, 2023, 08:51:37 PM
Ahahahhahah they've chosen the wrong number "four minutes"....
Maybe it would have been better a "....-learn in less than six (or) eight minutes"


Wagering & Intricacies / Decision to Stay or Leave. Ex...
Last post by alrelax - September 24, 2023, 04:33:50 PM
The questions are tough, the questions are ones that most never find the answers to, never really want to deal with, or ones that are quickly dismissed as unanswerable.  But they MUST be!

I desperately struggled for years to engage into finding answers and just thinking about it stressed me out countless times. So I simply avoided the questions and the soul-searching it demanded of me. Until............Recently.

The tangled and the misunderstood realm of the game entered my mind and remained in the forefront at the end of every single session I played. The presentments, the shuffle, the dealer, the amount won or given back, the published and written Q's & A's and stories. All ran through my head on the way out of the casino after each session.

Think about it. The shoe produces presentments that fall within the sphere, the domain within which anything and everything can occur, prevail, sometimes dominates the field, or fails to produce anything recognizable. Other times the presentments are totally recognizable and they match our beliefs, desires and decisions spot on, sometimes even allowing us to win like 7 or 8 times out of 10 leading us to fantastic wins. 

And with that said, onward with what this is really about, decisions and making them while winning.  How would it have been great if we previously left? Think about it, sure we are after anything to protect our buy in and a small or smallish win.  But IMO and experience, the greatest wins and 'great' sessions come after an 'up and down' of my buy in.  Which means, a drawdown of my buy in, evening out and getting a little bit ahead, once even twice, like being on a roller coaster ride. 

Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, visually and physically which will definitely assist in relieving the person's emotional downturn and stress factor, making it easier for clearer and more focused decision making.  It does for myself every time I get within the event of a nice ongoing winning session. 

IMO there is no magic percentile when to stop or continue play when you are winning. But one thing for 100% certain, if you stop, you cannot win more. And the more you win the more you want to continue playing. I don't care who you are, that applies to each one of us.

One example comes to mind that happened to myself not long ago. I arrived at my regular casino and no one was playing and one of my absolute favorite dealers was sitting there bored to death. We engaged in some quick small talk and I was gonna go get something to eat and kill an hour or so and come back. Anyway I took out only $100 from my buy in risk capital I brought and I laid it out on the table. She said, 'WHAT'?  I said, one hand be nice, just checking you out before the real play when I come back from eating. I put $80 on the banker and $20 on the fortune 7. She gave me a fortune 7 for an $800 win. I played a few more hands, and I won most of them. Not many hands later she gives me a second Fortune seven. A few people sat down at that time. By the end of the shoe I had over a $2,000 profit, got up to well over $3,000 and gave back about $1,000. She is telling me to take it and leave. Not a bad return on the next to nothing investment of my only $100 buy in.

But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. 

And I remember her, seriously telling me to take the money and leave when I was at the $2,000-$3,000 mark. Thinking back on that, at least twice I almost did, but the ups and downs were quick and I stalled out at that $1,800-$2,000 mark and again at $2,900-$3,300 mark as well. Then I took off again with winning most all parlays and positive progressions for 1-2 or 3 hands and losing only those when I backed down to my base unit wagers.

So if I left with say $2,500 I never would have reached the $7,000 to $8,000;mark. I was basically doing a 1/3 risk of what I was winning once I reached the $3,000 level which I have written about countless times in my money management method, that I normally use.

Here are three quick examples of what I am talking about here actually was applied and gave me clear advantages.




NOTE:  Reference #3.  I have several pictures of the scoreboard and will post them.

So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at. At least it is for myself and most of the people that I play with at the casinos. Buy in safe-a but of profit. But I do know playing on all win/won money is what I strive for.  But, it gets confusing at times. How much longer to quit, risk the win money further, leave even if winning fails to continue, etc., etc.

So many repeatedly write/say on the forums, win 1 to 3 units and leave. Lose 3 to 5 units and stop. I can't fathom that and I don't play that way. I don't have those kind of win stop, loss stop rules. I can never see making anything substantial if you play like that. Maybe I'm wrong? However mine are like so many. They want to win sizable amounts and I do, quite often. My loss stop is my buy in money. My buy in is my risk capital for the session. My win stop is unclear without definitive numbers. Once I takeoff, if I do, I govern myself by my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method.  Which works like a rock-solid rule manuscript maintaining success or having further profitability 1,000,000% of the time!

It works extremely well and I know it does, because I have no regrets if I was winning nicely, then gave back 1/3rd win and continued my play with my second 1/3rd of my win as my playing money. If I took off again, great, that is what my 1/3rd sectors are designed to do. If I lost a 1/3rd sector and struggling with my second 1/3rd sector, I am normally done. I have my buy in plus 1/3rd to 2/3rds of my win.  Cash out, leave, done and that emotional, 'I shoulda and coulda' doesn't exist!!!

So many win and see their session as unprecedented and a labored win they so rightfully deserved. They get into a zone, tuning everything out and become their own worst enemy most every single time they win or when the wins are happening for them. But they have nothing to govern themselves with.

It is easier said than accomplished at the table, but the only way to really excel is to focus, be extremely conscious and forget the past and what the shoe has produced or failed to produce in the past hands. Wager with the shoe's presentments and do not wager for your own desires as to what the shoe should produce or what your desires are. 

We talk about it all the time, especially with the ones we actually gamble with. The questions go something like; "How long do you play" or "If you are winning how long do you stay" or "If you are losing, how long will you attempt to come back" or "If you keep winning do you just up and leave at a certain point". And so on and so forth.

Tough, real tough if you soul search. By theory, so simple. If you are winning and start to lose, leave. If you were losing and can't get above your buy in or your buy in is depleting, leave.  But, it is not easy because we all know the presentments can certainly match our decisions and blast us into the positive if we were losing, or if we were winning, can blast us even further ahead. 

There are no easy, simple answers and never will be. However, you will wish you left much more than staying when losing. Because you experience the loss of your funds if you lose them. However, if you win/won or broke even and left, you probably will not really know what would have happened to really come about with a definitive conclusion. 

The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something; 

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. 

Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: HOW TO PLAY BACCARAT AND W...
Last post by 8OR9 - September 24, 2023, 03:17:34 PM
Since the above link was posted by Caesars Palace, (which I think maybe is a business called a casino  located somewhere in Nevada}     which maybe engages in the business of gambling
  ( gaming).......I  think that may explain the reasoning behind the advertising link.
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: HOW TO PLAY BACCARAT AND W...
Last post by alrelax - September 23, 2023, 02:52:36 PM
As soon as someone writes the below or along the lines of James Bond; the only possible motive is to steal the gambler's money, no matter a casino, systems seller or author.  Period.

"If you're looking to sit down at a Las Vegas casino table game with few complexities and a lot of James Bond-style gambling fun, baccarat is your go-to game."