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1

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**March 03, 2021, 11:46:20 pm »

So our goal is to get one of these precise B patterns: 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2.

Of course we start the betting when a 1 or a 2 happen.

Since we utilize a mini progression as 1-2 or 100-150 or 100-120, etc. to be ahead of something we need to win right at the first attempt; if we lose this very first attenpt, odds are strongly shifted toward NOT getting any kind of profit as the average number of the searched patterns is four.

(for example, after a L we can only break even with a subsequent WWW sequence)

Nonetheless, we can choose to make our first bet right on the second searched pattern when the first pattern produced a loss, that is betting to get a LW situation.

Since itlr the overall number of L outweigh the number of W (in term of units won/lost), we could test large datasets to see what's the most likely losing pattern distribution.

After all, Banker 3+s are more likely because asym hands come out in finite numbers, mostly clustered.

Hence we do not want to fall into the trap of looking for a positive pattern whenever the first two patterns are LL or risking to cross an unfavourable WL spot.

This is not a stop loss or stop win concept, just a cumulative study on what are our best chances to win at EV- propositions.

After all we can't win less than one unit (or a portion of it) and since we're flat betting we do not want to chase losses when the actual shoe had shown a "negative" propensity from the start. (As we need at least a triple number of W to balance a single L)

On average and choosing to adopt a super selected strategy (waiting shoes forming a first L), we are going to bet nearly 25% of the total shoes dealt.

Moreover, not every shoe will form a four (or greater) WL pattern, some of them stops at two and three (and sometimes only one W or L situation arises).

Why such strategy should enhance our probability to win?

Like other binomial games, most part of bac results are formed by singles and doubles, In three hands dealt, only two patterns over eight form triples (odds 2:8.), the remaining part includes singles and doubles.

Bac rules from one part raise the probability to form 3+s (Banker) and the opposite is true at Player side favoring singles and doubles.

Anyway, this math propensity comes out just one time over 11,62 hands dealt and sometimes it will shift the results very slightly. Not mentioning that some card distributions favor Player side even in asym spots.

Many bac players tend to emphasize too much the less worse 0.18% Banker return, this simple strategy (along with some additional adjustments I do not want to discuss here) shows that we can concede the house the higher advantage; let the house hope everytime we'll make a rare bet an asym hand will come out precisely on that spot.

as.

Of course we start the betting when a 1 or a 2 happen.

Since we utilize a mini progression as 1-2 or 100-150 or 100-120, etc. to be ahead of something we need to win right at the first attempt; if we lose this very first attenpt, odds are strongly shifted toward NOT getting any kind of profit as the average number of the searched patterns is four.

(for example, after a L we can only break even with a subsequent WWW sequence)

Nonetheless, we can choose to make our first bet right on the second searched pattern when the first pattern produced a loss, that is betting to get a LW situation.

Since itlr the overall number of L outweigh the number of W (in term of units won/lost), we could test large datasets to see what's the most likely losing pattern distribution.

After all, Banker 3+s are more likely because asym hands come out in finite numbers, mostly clustered.

Hence we do not want to fall into the trap of looking for a positive pattern whenever the first two patterns are LL or risking to cross an unfavourable WL spot.

This is not a stop loss or stop win concept, just a cumulative study on what are our best chances to win at EV- propositions.

After all we can't win less than one unit (or a portion of it) and since we're flat betting we do not want to chase losses when the actual shoe had shown a "negative" propensity from the start. (As we need at least a triple number of W to balance a single L)

On average and choosing to adopt a super selected strategy (waiting shoes forming a first L), we are going to bet nearly 25% of the total shoes dealt.

Moreover, not every shoe will form a four (or greater) WL pattern, some of them stops at two and three (and sometimes only one W or L situation arises).

Why such strategy should enhance our probability to win?

Like other binomial games, most part of bac results are formed by singles and doubles, In three hands dealt, only two patterns over eight form triples (odds 2:8.), the remaining part includes singles and doubles.

Bac rules from one part raise the probability to form 3+s (Banker) and the opposite is true at Player side favoring singles and doubles.

Anyway, this math propensity comes out just one time over 11,62 hands dealt and sometimes it will shift the results very slightly. Not mentioning that some card distributions favor Player side even in asym spots.

Many bac players tend to emphasize too much the less worse 0.18% Banker return, this simple strategy (along with some additional adjustments I do not want to discuss here) shows that we can concede the house the higher advantage; let the house hope everytime we'll make a rare bet an asym hand will come out precisely on that spot.

as.

2

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**March 02, 2021, 11:09:23 pm »

Thank you KFB!!

Any baccarat player needs to find the spots where his/her bets are EV+ as the idea to restrict the negative expectancy by utilizing some kind of progressions or balancement factors are completely wrong both theoretically and practically.

I could be the best disciplined person in the world but a EV- bet remains a EV- bet.

We can't do anything about that mathematically, yet we can do a lot statistically.

Along any BP finite succession, whatever considered, some spots are EV+ at the Banker side and some spots are EV+ at Player side.

This way of thinking totally contrasts with the common concept that every bet is EV- no matter what.

At baccarat, 91.4% of the outcomes are simply following a coin flip probability, just 8.6% of the results are Banker oriented.

Those coin flip situations mainly rely upon the key card distribution, they are not perfect independent spots, yet one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1.

Thus a slight dependent coin flip probability tends to provide many "limited" random walks (as key cards are limited both in number and distribution) where a given event is more likely than the counterpart.

Just on 91.6% of the results, of course.

The remaining 8.6% of the outcomes hugely favor Banker side, providing a neutral card distribution, meaning that third cards must belong to a "random" world where each rank is equally probable.

Really?

No fkng way.

A baccarat shoe is formed by a sure asymmetrical rank card distribution, we can't estimate precisely which cards will help a side or not, but we can get a clearer picture whenever we'll consider many kind of back to back probabilities as the asymmetrical features will dilute more and more up to the point where a reversed strenght will take place.

Even though it could happen to disregard the fact that one side is math advantaged over the other one.

Tomorrow about the B single-double attack.

as.

Any baccarat player needs to find the spots where his/her bets are EV+ as the idea to restrict the negative expectancy by utilizing some kind of progressions or balancement factors are completely wrong both theoretically and practically.

I could be the best disciplined person in the world but a EV- bet remains a EV- bet.

We can't do anything about that mathematically, yet we can do a lot statistically.

Along any BP finite succession, whatever considered, some spots are EV+ at the Banker side and some spots are EV+ at Player side.

This way of thinking totally contrasts with the common concept that every bet is EV- no matter what.

At baccarat, 91.4% of the outcomes are simply following a coin flip probability, just 8.6% of the results are Banker oriented.

Those coin flip situations mainly rely upon the key card distribution, they are not perfect independent spots, yet one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1.

Thus a slight dependent coin flip probability tends to provide many "limited" random walks (as key cards are limited both in number and distribution) where a given event is more likely than the counterpart.

Just on 91.6% of the results, of course.

The remaining 8.6% of the outcomes hugely favor Banker side, providing a neutral card distribution, meaning that third cards must belong to a "random" world where each rank is equally probable.

Really?

No fkng way.

A baccarat shoe is formed by a sure asymmetrical rank card distribution, we can't estimate precisely which cards will help a side or not, but we can get a clearer picture whenever we'll consider many kind of back to back probabilities as the asymmetrical features will dilute more and more up to the point where a reversed strenght will take place.

Even though it could happen to disregard the fact that one side is math advantaged over the other one.

Tomorrow about the B single-double attack.

as.

3

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 26, 2021, 12:04:43 am »

Hi KFB!!

I like very much your "decision tree" words.

First, let's consider your example.

Obviously a banker bettor would be very happy to win those hands and conversely a player bettor quite disappointed.

Nonetheless itlr such specific spots are EV- for Banker bettors and EV+ for Player bettors.

As a standing 7 on P side is favorite to win (and payed 1:1) whereas a winning natural on B side is payed 0.95:1.

If you were to know exactly the first card of the next hand, which side would have you bet?

I guess Player's.

And naturally whenever an asymmetrical hand do not come out within a range validly surpassing the math expectancy, no Banker bet is EV+.

Since we can't know how cards are distributed but we surely know the average card distribution impact, definitely some ranges of distribution will be slight more likely than others.

The more we're going deeply in the process of classifying the actual results, better will be the long term profitability.

Let's take a very simple approach made on big road.

We'll bet toward getting at least one of the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 patterns at Banker side, thus our play won't be affected by the vig as our bets will be placed only at Player side.

Anytime a 1 or 2 comes out at B side, we'll bet toward those three patterns. We'll stop the bet until we'll get one unit profit per shoe by utilizing a steady 1-2 progression.

Of course itlr we'll be in the negative as B>P then B1 < B2 < B3+.

That's ok.

But how many times we'll get two or more consecutive set of losses without getting at least one winning pattern we're looking for?

as.

I like very much your "decision tree" words.

First, let's consider your example.

Obviously a banker bettor would be very happy to win those hands and conversely a player bettor quite disappointed.

Nonetheless itlr such specific spots are EV- for Banker bettors and EV+ for Player bettors.

As a standing 7 on P side is favorite to win (and payed 1:1) whereas a winning natural on B side is payed 0.95:1.

If you were to know exactly the first card of the next hand, which side would have you bet?

I guess Player's.

And naturally whenever an asymmetrical hand do not come out within a range validly surpassing the math expectancy, no Banker bet is EV+.

Since we can't know how cards are distributed but we surely know the average card distribution impact, definitely some ranges of distribution will be slight more likely than others.

The more we're going deeply in the process of classifying the actual results, better will be the long term profitability.

Let's take a very simple approach made on big road.

We'll bet toward getting at least one of the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 patterns at Banker side, thus our play won't be affected by the vig as our bets will be placed only at Player side.

Anytime a 1 or 2 comes out at B side, we'll bet toward those three patterns. We'll stop the bet until we'll get one unit profit per shoe by utilizing a steady 1-2 progression.

Of course itlr we'll be in the negative as B>P then B1 < B2 < B3+.

That's ok.

But how many times we'll get two or more consecutive set of losses without getting at least one winning pattern we're looking for?

as.

4

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 22, 2021, 10:57:24 pm »

Congrats AsymBacGuy on your 1000 post above.

This is a good thread /subtopic and I like the analogy with the outcomes profile in craps. I think you will agree there are many similarities when comparing craps to bac. A couple huge differences too(as u point out one above re: dependence)

I look forward to your next post in the series.

Thanks KFB! :-)

Yep, besides the dependency factor, I totally agree that craps and baccarat tend to work by similarities.

When a craps shooter bet the pass line he/she has 2:1 odds to win as there are 6 ways to form a winning seven and 2 ways to form an eleven (8 winning ways); a sudden loss comes from rolling a deuce (1 way), a three (2 ways) and a twelve (1 way) totaling 4 ways to lose. 2:1.

The casino's ploy to reduce a sure math edge for the don't pass bettor derives from transforming a losing twelve for the pass bettor to a push.

After this very first roll not producing a sudden win or loss, the pass line bettor is underdog to win as in relationship of the number established his/her odds to win are 5:6 (six or eight), 4:6 (five and nine) and 3:6 (four and ten).

Thus basically there are two distinct asymmetrical probabilities to get outcomes on either pass or don't pass sides: a sudden win getting 2:1 (pass line) and 3:8 odds (don't pass line); after that the don't pass line is hugely favorite to win at various degrees.

In essence, the above mentioned multilayered betting scheme relies upon the difficulty to first roll sevens and elevens in series greater than 4 per each consecutive shooter.

Of course it could happen that such 7s/11s will be mixed with number repeaters, anyway it's very very very very unlikely to get four consecutive players winning 16 rolls in a row without showing at least one or a couple of immediate 7/11 wins.

At baccarat from one part math propositions are more intricated to grasp, from the other one there are additional factors that might orient our bet selection.

We know that "sudden win or loss" are determined more likely by the fall of strongest key cards (8s and 9s) on the initial two initial cards of a given side, then the side getting the higher two initial card point is hugely favorite to win the hand.

Of course such probabilities are symmetrical (thus undetectable) but the finiteness of the shoe and the key card liveness or shortage along with simple statistical features will help us to define how much such factors are going to produce valuable deviations from the expected line.

As there's no way a perfect key card balancement is going to act along any shoe dealt (even though many not key card situations can produce strong deviated spots), we can infer that most part of random walks are not going to form back to back outcomes totally insensitive to the previous card distribution.

Simply put, the vast majority of shoes dealt are surely affected by a kind of finite dependency deviating from the expected values.

Tomorrow practical examples about that.

as.

5

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 18, 2021, 11:55:14 pm »

That's my 1k post on this wonderful site, congratulations to this forum upgrade.

@Al: 1-3-2-6 betting approach is useful as long as we are sure we can get an edge by flat betting, thus it's just a profit scheme enhancer (more WW situations than WL spots, etc)

Most part of money won by casinos derives from an improper W/L assessment and not for the math advantage we must endure.

Take the 16-step betting scheme I was talking about above.

Say that after 8 bets that went wrong (that is a -$450 deficit) the plan dictates our next bet will be $30.

Basically we're betting only the 6.66% percentage of what we're losing.

Now tell me whether a -$450 losing player will place just a fkng $30 wager.

Actually that's the wisest move he/she can take (as long as we know to play with an advantage).

First, a huge deficit must be compensated slowly as the probability to get a quick kind of symmetrical WL ratio is very low, secondly risking too much money in order to get a fast recover will expose us to the fatal risk of losing our entire bankroll.

When our random walks-whatever running- reach some extremes, the probability to get a "balanced" or more likely status is generally small and quite diluted.

To get a vulgar example of this, think about how many times we'll face a BBBBBBBB sequence (we'd bet P every hand causing us eight losses) suddendly followed by a specular PPPPPPPP or PPPPPPP pattern (again we always bet P).

Yes, it could happen, the same way slots can give you a kind of little jackpot.

Actually, all baccarat systems rely upon the probability that things must change in player's favor with no regards about the important time factor (number of shoes dealt, or better sayed, number of hands really wagered).

Let me present a real example of this.

Several years ago, a bunch of japanese players joined one of the Vegas HS baccarat room, they managed to fill all the table seats.

A leader instructed all his peers to bet the same side he had chosen to wager and btw all bet were made at the maximum limit.

Things went out that a couple of consecutive shoes produced a very strong Player predominance, at the end casino lost the like of $1.4 millions.

Such players kept playing baccarat for the next few days of their trip, and not surprisingly they'd lost some of the money won, anyway they quit Vegas as huge overall winners.

The question is about how many days this casino had managed to recover such a loss: many.

Despite of the sure math advantage, the casino needed several days to recover that loss and we are talking about players getting a win by playing the strongest uphill percentages.

Back to the 4 step x 4 step betting sequence.

At baccarat and differently to craps, when utilizing a proper bet selection the probability to be wrong 16 times in a row is not existent at all, and I'm not referring to the probability to cross a 16 streak in various shapes.

The main probability to get wins is about the first 4-step wagering, subsequent steps will just proportionally raise the probability to recover previous losses.

And we can safely assume that even adopting a "risky" progressive approach, the probability to lose our 150 unit bankroll is almost zero.

I'll prove this on my next post.

as.

@Al: 1-3-2-6 betting approach is useful as long as we are sure we can get an edge by flat betting, thus it's just a profit scheme enhancer (more WW situations than WL spots, etc)

**Win frequency**Most part of money won by casinos derives from an improper W/L assessment and not for the math advantage we must endure.

Take the 16-step betting scheme I was talking about above.

Say that after 8 bets that went wrong (that is a -$450 deficit) the plan dictates our next bet will be $30.

Basically we're betting only the 6.66% percentage of what we're losing.

Now tell me whether a -$450 losing player will place just a fkng $30 wager.

Actually that's the wisest move he/she can take (as long as we know to play with an advantage).

First, a huge deficit must be compensated slowly as the probability to get a quick kind of symmetrical WL ratio is very low, secondly risking too much money in order to get a fast recover will expose us to the fatal risk of losing our entire bankroll.

When our random walks-whatever running- reach some extremes, the probability to get a "balanced" or more likely status is generally small and quite diluted.

To get a vulgar example of this, think about how many times we'll face a BBBBBBBB sequence (we'd bet P every hand causing us eight losses) suddendly followed by a specular PPPPPPPP or PPPPPPP pattern (again we always bet P).

Yes, it could happen, the same way slots can give you a kind of little jackpot.

Actually, all baccarat systems rely upon the probability that things must change in player's favor with no regards about the important time factor (number of shoes dealt, or better sayed, number of hands really wagered).

Let me present a real example of this.

Several years ago, a bunch of japanese players joined one of the Vegas HS baccarat room, they managed to fill all the table seats.

A leader instructed all his peers to bet the same side he had chosen to wager and btw all bet were made at the maximum limit.

Things went out that a couple of consecutive shoes produced a very strong Player predominance, at the end casino lost the like of $1.4 millions.

Such players kept playing baccarat for the next few days of their trip, and not surprisingly they'd lost some of the money won, anyway they quit Vegas as huge overall winners.

The question is about how many days this casino had managed to recover such a loss: many.

Despite of the sure math advantage, the casino needed several days to recover that loss and we are talking about players getting a win by playing the strongest uphill percentages.

Back to the 4 step x 4 step betting sequence.

At baccarat and differently to craps, when utilizing a proper bet selection the probability to be wrong 16 times in a row is not existent at all, and I'm not referring to the probability to cross a 16 streak in various shapes.

The main probability to get wins is about the first 4-step wagering, subsequent steps will just proportionally raise the probability to recover previous losses.

And we can safely assume that even adopting a "risky" progressive approach, the probability to lose our 150 unit bankroll is almost zero.

I'll prove this on my next post.

as.

6

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 11, 2021, 11:09:19 pm »

THis is a quite long post, please read carefully not reaching quick conclusions.

Let's talk about a specific bac method derived from an old craps interesting system very few people know about.

The system works against the probability that four consecutive craps players will make 4 or more passes each (pass=wins on the pass line bet).

Whenever each player reaches the four pass level, we are not interested anymore on what happens next about this shooter, we'll wait the next shooter.

Thus we'll place our bets only on the don't pass line.

When such thing will happen we'll lose our entire bankroll.

The betting multilayered progression is:

$10, $20, $40, $80

$20, $40, $80, $160

$30, $60, $120, $240

$40, $80, $160, $320

Total bankroll at risk = $1500

Anytime we lose a bet we'll step forward the next progressive amount, when we win a bet at any level we'll go back to the first original progressive line ($10, $20, etc)

To lose the entire bankroll we need a 16-consecutive losing sequence, and this thing surely will happen but at a very very low degree of probability.

In any case, even when this nasty thing happens, we could be in the positive field as it's likely we have accumulated many wins on the more likely positive situations.

Comments

You can notice that wins made on a given level will cancel just the previous same level losing bets.

For example, after getting 6 losing hands in a row followed by a win ($80 bet on second level), we are still behind $130 that in a way or another must be recovered by the first level progression.

Actually only the first level progression will make us pure winners, subsequent levels diminish the deficit just by small loss percentages.

Per each level we're proportionally win $10, or recover from the overall losing situation respectively $20 (second level), $30 (third level) and $40 (final level).

It's a long waiting process as it could take several rolls to produce either a single win or a single loss. Not mentioning that placing progressive don't pass bets will arise other players hostility.

Who gives a fk about other players, but prolonging too much our betting frequency is a bigger issue.

Moreover, it's quite difficult to accept the idea that after a $450 loss (two full progressions that went wrong) the system dictates to wager just $30 (first step of the third progression level).

Believe it or not, the probability such system will bring us in the positive side are quite interesting, even though we know that sooner or later s.hit will happen. (but even in this scenario we could be winners).

Finally it's obvious to state that craps is just made by endless independent random successions.

Therefore, odds to lose our entire bankroll are nearly 1 : 65.536.

Good news are that baccarat isn't an independent and random game, moreover is a finite card game.

Bad news are that each bet isn't following precise probability percentages, as a strong dynamic probability could affect the outcomes in either a positive or a negative way.

And of course the irregular asymmetrical BP probability and the constant asymmetrical payment will make a huge role along the way.

Nonetheless, I see a common important trait between our strategies and this craps method inventor: when considering gambling games, after a cutoff point is surpassed and incorporated into a finite field, we shouldn't be interested anymore to register the results.

In addition, notice the important parameter assumed by the craps expert: he or she didn't want to challenge a single player getting a 16-passes streak in some way, he preferred to split his/her strategy by spreading it on consecutive different limited random sources.

In a nutshell, the probability a single craps shooter will get a 16-pass streak is higher than the probability that four distinct consecutive shooters will get 4 passes each.

Scientifically speaking this craps method inventor indirectly doubted about the place selection and probability after events tools confirming or not the perfect randomness of the results.

Back to baccarat.

We have to choose the procedures to transfer at baccarat those craps ideas.

First, we should define any single craps shooter as a first B or P appearance.

Any new shooter won't act as long as a new BP shift come out (an exception is about the very first B or P result).

Therefore we need a 5 same streak apperance happening on either side to lose our first level progression. (First hand is just a non-bet signal to classify a new player)

Say the first hand is B. Now we'll play against a B streak of 5+, stopping if a 5-streak happened.

The same about P. And so on.

In a word, we're challenging every shoe dealt to produce back to back 5+ streaks happening consecutively and we need four consecutive 5+ B/P streaks to lose our entire bankroll.

Notice that at craps each sevening-out shooter will make a end of his/her winning streak, now at baccarat we'd classify as a new shooter the next BP shift.

Even though we're classifying mere BP results (and you well know there are greater better random walk lines to wager into) the probability to get four or more 5+ B or P consecutive streaks is almost not existent.

Now we know that the losing bankroll probability won't happen at humanly considered ranges.

But wait.

In order to get an edge, we need that first level progression will get more wins than expected. In poorer word that streaks are cumulatively not reaching the 5+ degree level.

Not mentioning that every B result is burdened by a 5% vig.

If a simple B/P consecutive winning streak pattern should be affected by a lack of proper randomness and/or affected by the bac rules, is any distinct back to back B or P succession following more detectable patterns?

A thing we'll consider on the next post.

as.

Let's talk about a specific bac method derived from an old craps interesting system very few people know about.

**Craps system**The system works against the probability that four consecutive craps players will make 4 or more passes each (pass=wins on the pass line bet).

Whenever each player reaches the four pass level, we are not interested anymore on what happens next about this shooter, we'll wait the next shooter.

Thus we'll place our bets only on the don't pass line.

When such thing will happen we'll lose our entire bankroll.

The betting multilayered progression is:

$10, $20, $40, $80

$20, $40, $80, $160

$30, $60, $120, $240

$40, $80, $160, $320

Total bankroll at risk = $1500

Anytime we lose a bet we'll step forward the next progressive amount, when we win a bet at any level we'll go back to the first original progressive line ($10, $20, etc)

To lose the entire bankroll we need a 16-consecutive losing sequence, and this thing surely will happen but at a very very low degree of probability.

In any case, even when this nasty thing happens, we could be in the positive field as it's likely we have accumulated many wins on the more likely positive situations.

Comments

You can notice that wins made on a given level will cancel just the previous same level losing bets.

For example, after getting 6 losing hands in a row followed by a win ($80 bet on second level), we are still behind $130 that in a way or another must be recovered by the first level progression.

Actually only the first level progression will make us pure winners, subsequent levels diminish the deficit just by small loss percentages.

Per each level we're proportionally win $10, or recover from the overall losing situation respectively $20 (second level), $30 (third level) and $40 (final level).

It's a long waiting process as it could take several rolls to produce either a single win or a single loss. Not mentioning that placing progressive don't pass bets will arise other players hostility.

Who gives a fk about other players, but prolonging too much our betting frequency is a bigger issue.

Moreover, it's quite difficult to accept the idea that after a $450 loss (two full progressions that went wrong) the system dictates to wager just $30 (first step of the third progression level).

Believe it or not, the probability such system will bring us in the positive side are quite interesting, even though we know that sooner or later s.hit will happen. (but even in this scenario we could be winners).

Finally it's obvious to state that craps is just made by endless independent random successions.

Therefore, odds to lose our entire bankroll are nearly 1 : 65.536.

**Modeling this system to baccarat**Good news are that baccarat isn't an independent and random game, moreover is a finite card game.

Bad news are that each bet isn't following precise probability percentages, as a strong dynamic probability could affect the outcomes in either a positive or a negative way.

And of course the irregular asymmetrical BP probability and the constant asymmetrical payment will make a huge role along the way.

Nonetheless, I see a common important trait between our strategies and this craps method inventor: when considering gambling games, after a cutoff point is surpassed and incorporated into a finite field, we shouldn't be interested anymore to register the results.

In addition, notice the important parameter assumed by the craps expert: he or she didn't want to challenge a single player getting a 16-passes streak in some way, he preferred to split his/her strategy by spreading it on consecutive different limited random sources.

In a nutshell, the probability a single craps shooter will get a 16-pass streak is higher than the probability that four distinct consecutive shooters will get 4 passes each.

Scientifically speaking this craps method inventor indirectly doubted about the place selection and probability after events tools confirming or not the perfect randomness of the results.

Back to baccarat.

We have to choose the procedures to transfer at baccarat those craps ideas.

First, we should define any single craps shooter as a first B or P appearance.

Any new shooter won't act as long as a new BP shift come out (an exception is about the very first B or P result).

Therefore we need a 5 same streak apperance happening on either side to lose our first level progression. (First hand is just a non-bet signal to classify a new player)

Say the first hand is B. Now we'll play against a B streak of 5+, stopping if a 5-streak happened.

The same about P. And so on.

In a word, we're challenging every shoe dealt to produce back to back 5+ streaks happening consecutively and we need four consecutive 5+ B/P streaks to lose our entire bankroll.

Notice that at craps each sevening-out shooter will make a end of his/her winning streak, now at baccarat we'd classify as a new shooter the next BP shift.

Even though we're classifying mere BP results (and you well know there are greater better random walk lines to wager into) the probability to get four or more 5+ B or P consecutive streaks is almost not existent.

Now we know that the losing bankroll probability won't happen at humanly considered ranges.

But wait.

In order to get an edge, we need that first level progression will get more wins than expected. In poorer word that streaks are cumulatively not reaching the 5+ degree level.

Not mentioning that every B result is burdened by a 5% vig.

If a simple B/P consecutive winning streak pattern should be affected by a lack of proper randomness and/or affected by the bac rules, is any distinct back to back B or P succession following more detectable patterns?

A thing we'll consider on the next post.

as.

7

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 07, 2021, 11:35:07 am »

Given the astounding asymmetrical and finite features working at baccarat, the only possibility to lose is whenever the card distribution remains so hugely polarized for long that no betting plan could get the edge we're looking for.

Curiously those last are the bread and butter situations that recreational players are looking for: a kind of endless jackpots, in the meanwhile trying to survive into the most likely non-jackpot successions.

Actually I have nothing against it: in some casinos, cards are so badly shuffled that peddling a long streak gets a way larger probability than expected.

Such casinos use a same shoe that is manually shuffled very quickly only by halves.

The problem is that most casinos where some serious money might be wagered at, apply more deep "independent" shuffles.

Anyway and without any shadow of doubt, real advantage players know that the average probability to get a given event along certain portions of the shoe is well greater than expected.

Not a serious threat for casinos as the remaining 99.9% of players (quite probably more than that) will be eager to get their money separated from them.

That means that per every shoe you'll decide to play at, the more you want to be right higher will be the probability to be wrong.

Especially if you'd force the probability to be right by adopting a betting progression without a proper and very diluted bet selection.

Low and high asymmetrical distributions can't get us any edge, our edge comes out from more likely moderate asymmetrical distributions.

The 'low' world could be easily get rid of by starting our registration after a given deviation had started to appear.

The 'high' world must be restricted by trying to put a stop by wagering a very limited amount of bets up to a point.

Think that in order to get an edge itlr, we must prove that after adopting a given discontinued registration (limited random walks), there will be a finite number of either increments or decrements not corresponding to the expected values.

as.

Curiously those last are the bread and butter situations that recreational players are looking for: a kind of endless jackpots, in the meanwhile trying to survive into the most likely non-jackpot successions.

Actually I have nothing against it: in some casinos, cards are so badly shuffled that peddling a long streak gets a way larger probability than expected.

Such casinos use a same shoe that is manually shuffled very quickly only by halves.

The problem is that most casinos where some serious money might be wagered at, apply more deep "independent" shuffles.

Anyway and without any shadow of doubt, real advantage players know that the average probability to get a given event along certain portions of the shoe is well greater than expected.

Not a serious threat for casinos as the remaining 99.9% of players (quite probably more than that) will be eager to get their money separated from them.

That means that per every shoe you'll decide to play at, the more you want to be right higher will be the probability to be wrong.

Especially if you'd force the probability to be right by adopting a betting progression without a proper and very diluted bet selection.

Low and high asymmetrical distributions can't get us any edge, our edge comes out from more likely moderate asymmetrical distributions.

The 'low' world could be easily get rid of by starting our registration after a given deviation had started to appear.

The 'high' world must be restricted by trying to put a stop by wagering a very limited amount of bets up to a point.

Think that in order to get an edge itlr, we must prove that after adopting a given discontinued registration (limited random walks), there will be a finite number of either increments or decrements not corresponding to the expected values.

as.

8

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**February 02, 2021, 11:25:17 pm »

Comparing our live shoes dataset with either pc simulated shoes and deeply shuffled manually shoes, we've seen that the former category differs from the latter by two specular probabilities:

- the probability to get long streaks (it was demonstrated to be greater at live shoes)

- the probability to get long "chopping" patterns (it was demonstrated to be lower at live shoes)

That doesn't mean that live shoes tend to produce more streaks than singles, just that our significance statistical tools informed us that after some cutoff points were surpassed, live shoes need a lesser amount of hands to form, say, an 8 streak or conversely a greater amount of hands to produce an 8 chopping pattern.

Given the relative mediocrity of our live shoes sample compared to the endless pc simulated and self manual shuffled shoes samples, we were interested to find whether such peculiarity would be present in every live casino shoe registration.

And we were impressed to get an affirmative answer. (Even more when other scholars have found the same feature).

In essence, many live shoes are affected by a bias acting at various degrees and we think the reason belongs to the difficulty to shuffle key cards in a proper randomly fashion.

Of course not every live shoe is shuffled badly and there's always the probability that a biased shoe will produce seemingly "random" results.

Since live shoes tend to produce a proportional lesser amount of long chopping lines and a greater amount of long streaks than expected, we might set up a betting plan that doesn't involve the short chopping situations and the streaks that surpass a given lenght.

Now we are playing at a restricted field, from one part getting rid of many short single sequences and from the other one by considering streaks after x and up to y.

Nonetheless, only a derived AB plan could further restrict the variance as it gets rid of many unpolarized situations enhancing the uncertainty.

as.

- the probability to get long streaks (it was demonstrated to be greater at live shoes)

- the probability to get long "chopping" patterns (it was demonstrated to be lower at live shoes)

That doesn't mean that live shoes tend to produce more streaks than singles, just that our significance statistical tools informed us that after some cutoff points were surpassed, live shoes need a lesser amount of hands to form, say, an 8 streak or conversely a greater amount of hands to produce an 8 chopping pattern.

Given the relative mediocrity of our live shoes sample compared to the endless pc simulated and self manual shuffled shoes samples, we were interested to find whether such peculiarity would be present in every live casino shoe registration.

And we were impressed to get an affirmative answer. (Even more when other scholars have found the same feature).

In essence, many live shoes are affected by a bias acting at various degrees and we think the reason belongs to the difficulty to shuffle key cards in a proper randomly fashion.

Of course not every live shoe is shuffled badly and there's always the probability that a biased shoe will produce seemingly "random" results.

Since live shoes tend to produce a proportional lesser amount of long chopping lines and a greater amount of long streaks than expected, we might set up a betting plan that doesn't involve the short chopping situations and the streaks that surpass a given lenght.

Now we are playing at a restricted field, from one part getting rid of many short single sequences and from the other one by considering streaks after x and up to y.

Nonetheless, only a derived AB plan could further restrict the variance as it gets rid of many unpolarized situations enhancing the uncertainty.

as.

9

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 31, 2021, 08:42:33 pm »

Imo, it's of paramount importance to know that the baccarat model can be beaten ONLY in selected circumstances capable to enhance the probability to get a

We can't beat every shoe dealt and let alone we can't think that those deviated shoes will get us a greater amount of wins than the more likely losing counterparts.

Either we discard from our play the more likely world or we discard those very deviated shoes.

I guess we'll do better by adopting the latter line.

Btw: since this fkng covid-19 won't get away so fast, we're ready to set up an online team to teach the world how things really work at baccarat so anyone can see for free how to win at this game.

Without utilizing those ridicolous idi.o.t fkng utube videos.

as.

*more likely card distribution*.We can't beat every shoe dealt and let alone we can't think that those deviated shoes will get us a greater amount of wins than the more likely losing counterparts.

Either we discard from our play the more likely world or we discard those very deviated shoes.

I guess we'll do better by adopting the latter line.

Btw: since this fkng covid-19 won't get away so fast, we're ready to set up an online team to teach the world how things really work at baccarat so anyone can see for free how to win at this game.

Without utilizing those ridicolous idi.o.t fkng utube videos.

as.

10

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 31, 2021, 08:18:26 pm »

Definitely true what you have posted Al, but in the process of getting an edge we must discard some shoes from the play as no section or no portion of some single shoes will get the room and/or the possibility to get valuable card combinations to bet into.

For example, when almost every 8 and 9 had shown and no longer available, next outcomes will be affected by a huge degree of volatility, say a huge degree of randomness.

No 8 or 9 available = more hands will involve the use of six cards, the highest degree of randomness.

And it's not a coincidence that ties are well more likely when hands got to use six cards.

It could happen that very talented players might get the best of it by ascertaining valuably those rare deviated shoes, we prefer to bet toward the remaining more predominant part of shoes where an event A is a long term favorite over the counterpart B.

After vig, of course.

as.

For example, when almost every 8 and 9 had shown and no longer available, next outcomes will be affected by a huge degree of volatility, say a huge degree of randomness.

No 8 or 9 available = more hands will involve the use of six cards, the highest degree of randomness.

And it's not a coincidence that ties are well more likely when hands got to use six cards.

It could happen that very talented players might get the best of it by ascertaining valuably those rare deviated shoes, we prefer to bet toward the remaining more predominant part of shoes where an event A is a long term favorite over the counterpart B.

After vig, of course.

as.

11

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 25, 2021, 11:30:44 pm »

A baccarat shoe is formed by a finite amount of two-card 'states', that is

By far this is the main factor directing the final outcomes.

Some two-card points will be equal on either side, so the outcome is based upon the third and/or fourth card quality, of course according to the bac rules of asymmetricity favoring B.

And naturally many different two-card points need the third/fourth card intervention to address the results.

Even though the third (and/or fourth) card whimsically invert the initial math advantage, itlr and also in the shortest runs the side getting the highest point will be a sure winner.

We do not know which side will be kissed by such highest two-card point, but we can estimate

Anyway this feature cannot be assessed by the mere B/P distributions as a dynamic probability, typical of baccarat, can't be validly estimated actual result by actual result as too severely affected by variance.

We need advanced techinques to really ascertain the states movements working at the shoe we're playing at.

Simply put, we need to build a scheme where the states changements must follow more likely lines at the same time getting very low degrees of variance.

Most of the times they do, other times they don't but just for a

The states changements reliability can be so high that playing at shoes very bad shuffled we can even afford to set up plans oriented to get multiple winnings per shoe by adopting a kind of "sky's the limit" attitude.

Regardless of the techniques utilized, itlr BP results will form the same number of AB opposite situations.

Therefore A=B.

We see that no side will be advantaged in term of A or B quantities, even though an acute and very experienced player could get the best of it by exploiting some actual A or B deviations.

Now we take a step further.

We want to discard some A or B events according to a precise plan. If the game is perfect randomly dealt and/or perfect flawless at any spot, the resulting registration shouldn't be affected by any means, and actually itlr A=B yet.

It remains to assess the very important AB distribution that should be insensitive to our place selection artifice that must confirm the randomness. That is increment steps of A or B.

A simple combinatorial analysis show that whenever some spots are not included in our chosen data, some patterns are more likely than others. That is we can get a sure edge over the house.

I mean a great edge, not that miserable bj card counting edge.

The reason why discarding hands from our data is proven to produce a sure unrandom world is given by the difficulty to arrange key cards proportionally along any shoe dealt.

Hint: we must use a plan capable to discard the greatest number of more likely BP events.

Notice I mentioned BP events and not AB events.

as.

*high card*situations math favoring remarkably the side where the highest point will fall at.By far this is the main factor directing the final outcomes.

Some two-card points will be equal on either side, so the outcome is based upon the third and/or fourth card quality, of course according to the bac rules of asymmetricity favoring B.

And naturally many different two-card points need the third/fourth card intervention to address the results.

Even though the third (and/or fourth) card whimsically invert the initial math advantage, itlr and also in the shortest runs the side getting the highest point will be a sure winner.

We do not know which side will be kissed by such highest two-card point, but we can estimate

*how long*a side should be more likely than the other because we can't erase key cards from the shoe or hoping that the side we didn't bet get a key card combined with a low card.Anyway this feature cannot be assessed by the mere B/P distributions as a dynamic probability, typical of baccarat, can't be validly estimated actual result by actual result as too severely affected by variance.

We need advanced techinques to really ascertain the states movements working at the shoe we're playing at.

Simply put, we need to build a scheme where the states changements must follow more likely lines at the same time getting very low degrees of variance.

Most of the times they do, other times they don't but just for a

*lack of space*factor along with other statistical issues.The states changements reliability can be so high that playing at shoes very bad shuffled we can even afford to set up plans oriented to get multiple winnings per shoe by adopting a kind of "sky's the limit" attitude.

*How to get the full value of probability after events at baccarat*Regardless of the techniques utilized, itlr BP results will form the same number of AB opposite situations.

Therefore A=B.

We see that no side will be advantaged in term of A or B quantities, even though an acute and very experienced player could get the best of it by exploiting some actual A or B deviations.

Now we take a step further.

We want to discard some A or B events according to a precise plan. If the game is perfect randomly dealt and/or perfect flawless at any spot, the resulting registration shouldn't be affected by any means, and actually itlr A=B yet.

It remains to assess the very important AB distribution that should be insensitive to our place selection artifice that must confirm the randomness. That is increment steps of A or B.

A simple combinatorial analysis show that whenever some spots are not included in our chosen data, some patterns are more likely than others. That is we can get a sure edge over the house.

I mean a great edge, not that miserable bj card counting edge.

The reason why discarding hands from our data is proven to produce a sure unrandom world is given by the difficulty to arrange key cards proportionally along any shoe dealt.

Hint: we must use a plan capable to discard the greatest number of more likely BP events.

Notice I mentioned BP events and not AB events.

as.

12

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 24, 2021, 11:00:45 pm »

Let's compare baccarat with two casino games that have demonstrated to get players an edge.

First game is black jack.

How the hell bj was considered a beatable game?

By running millions of pc shoes to test whether high card and aces concentration (theory) really goes to player's advantage by a hi/lo card counting.

The theory was verified by practice. Bj is a math beatable game by card counting (providing a valuable penetration, etc).

Second game is craps.

Some shooters after having practiced for long at home think to be "dice controllers", meaning that they can throw the dice unrandomly thus producing profitable situations. For example, lowering the "sevens" rate or enhancing the 6 appearance on either cubes. That is to transform a random model into a wanted unrandom model.

To test the possible "unrandom" profitability such players would run thousands of throws, that means to study the limiting values of relative frequency that must deviate from common math expectancy applied to random outcomes.

If after a given amount of trials (of course the greater the better) the "sevens" percentage was lower than expected and/or the "6" appearance was greater than expected, those players might think to get an edge at different degrees (this not necessarily capable to invert the house edge in their favor) and now we talk about "statistical significance" (again restricted within certain levels).

Now theory can't be 100% ascertained by practice for two reasons: first, there's always a tiny probability to have registered unrandom results by coincidence; secondly, the dice throws sample is way more restricted than bj numbers.

Nonetheless, those dice controllers can't give a lesser damn about millions of throws proving or not their confidence to beat craps. They just collect the money won or accept the losses, assigning the possible temporary failure to a umproper technique due to several disparate causes.

Imo baccarat stays in the middle of those two extremes.

From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.

Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.

From the other part, we must challenge the "baccarat model" to always provide perfect randomly situations regardless of when we decide to bet, a thing scientifically proven to be wrong at least in the live shoes dealt sample that any human can collect.

Now it's the dealer or the SM to really make the desired unrandom world we want to get.

In fact it's virtually impossible that at an 8-deck shoe a human or a physical shuffle machine will be able to arrange key cards proportionally for the entire lenght of the shoe, our datasets strongly state otherwise.

Again the probability after events tool will get us the decisive factor to beat baccarat.

Without any doubt.

Tomorrow we'll see why.

as.

First game is black jack.

How the hell bj was considered a beatable game?

By running millions of pc shoes to test whether high card and aces concentration (theory) really goes to player's advantage by a hi/lo card counting.

The theory was verified by practice. Bj is a math beatable game by card counting (providing a valuable penetration, etc).

Second game is craps.

Some shooters after having practiced for long at home think to be "dice controllers", meaning that they can throw the dice unrandomly thus producing profitable situations. For example, lowering the "sevens" rate or enhancing the 6 appearance on either cubes. That is to transform a random model into a wanted unrandom model.

To test the possible "unrandom" profitability such players would run thousands of throws, that means to study the limiting values of relative frequency that must deviate from common math expectancy applied to random outcomes.

If after a given amount of trials (of course the greater the better) the "sevens" percentage was lower than expected and/or the "6" appearance was greater than expected, those players might think to get an edge at different degrees (this not necessarily capable to invert the house edge in their favor) and now we talk about "statistical significance" (again restricted within certain levels).

Now theory can't be 100% ascertained by practice for two reasons: first, there's always a tiny probability to have registered unrandom results by coincidence; secondly, the dice throws sample is way more restricted than bj numbers.

Nonetheless, those dice controllers can't give a lesser damn about millions of throws proving or not their confidence to beat craps. They just collect the money won or accept the losses, assigning the possible temporary failure to a umproper technique due to several disparate causes.

Imo baccarat stays in the middle of those two extremes.

From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.

Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.

From the other part, we must challenge the "baccarat model" to always provide perfect randomly situations regardless of when we decide to bet, a thing scientifically proven to be wrong at least in the live shoes dealt sample that any human can collect.

Now it's the dealer or the SM to really make the desired unrandom world we want to get.

In fact it's virtually impossible that at an 8-deck shoe a human or a physical shuffle machine will be able to arrange key cards proportionally for the entire lenght of the shoe, our datasets strongly state otherwise.

Again the probability after events tool will get us the decisive factor to beat baccarat.

Without any doubt.

Tomorrow we'll see why.

as.

13

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 24, 2021, 08:45:34 pm »

Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.

True, yet the derived road inventors had made the first primordial attempt to use the important probability after events tool, one of the two statistical parameters that could get us a real edge.

Of course most players make a bad use of those roads, trying to win an endless number of hands around any corner by hoping that "trends" must remain univocal for long.

In a word, they just gamble.

I agree with you that just one type of registration will make things simpler for many experienced players, especially for those capable to promptly recognize that some shoes cannot be played at all.

Now baccarat becomes more an art than a science, but imo we must find ways to scientifically prove the game is beatable by every person in the world.

as.

14

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 19, 2021, 11:31:26 am »

Btw, I highly suggest you to read this book:

as.

**by Annie Duke***Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts*as.

15

**AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr**

« **on:**January 17, 2021, 11:56:07 pm »

**Clustering effect**

Baccarat is a game of clusters of different lenght and thickness.

And of course at baccarat there are no real symmetrical situations: for example, a 9 falling on the first two Player cards doesn't get the same power than a 9 falling on the two first Banker cards.

The probability to get that 9 falling on either side is equal but the effects are not symmetrical.

This concept could be applied to many other key card ranks, 8s and 7s of course but even 5s and 4s follow the same principle.

Any shoe dealt is formed by different "states" that eventually equal the rank number but the situations forming outcomes and player's ROI start asymmetrically, stay asymmetrically and end up asymmetrically.

The main reason conditioning the outcomes itlr regards the key card distribution getting different powers depending upon the side cards will fall at.

Most of the times key cards determine those outcomes. Not every time but most of the time.

When the outcomes seem to be too whimsically produced (see next post), it means that the shoe is not playable (that is unprofitable). We name that as "a very low clustered shoe".

Baccarat outcomes are not B or P results. Yes, we need a B or P to show up in order to register our random walk lines as there are no other betting options.

In reality baccarat is a game of

*states*and not an endless B/P sequence.

We've seen that there are tools to derive unrandom successions from a primitive random sequence, our task should be focused to assess when one or more unrandom successions will take just one step forward toward the clustering world.

To maximize the reward risk ratio, per each shoe played looking for just one step is more than enough to battle versus a sure EV- math game.

By far and without any doubt, our EV will be greater and affected by the most ridiculously low variance when we'll try to find out just one profitable state per every playable shoe.

This means to discard a lot of unplayable situations and naturally to possibly witness "all winning" shoes without betting a dime.

It's not a coincidence that those rare long term winning players after winning or losing their "key hands" simply quit the table.

Deciding to be ahead of more than one step per playable shoe is a sure risky move to put in jeopardy the actual edge we get over the casinos.

On average clustered states are slight more likely than expected and that is mainly due to an imperfect shuffling.

Consider baccarat in the same way as black jack works for card counters even though by totally different reasons.

At bj profitable card counting situations cannot last for long. The same happens at baccarat.

We want to play by concentrating at most our edge, challenging the bac system to show its flaws within very few spots.

as.