"Gambler Packer loses �13m in 3 days"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/1368368/Gambler-Packer-loses-13m-in-3-days.html

Guess you'd better be careful 

thanks guys for your instant replies. 

hi folks,

i have a question and I hope someone here can help:

what is the probability that within 3 spins all 3 different dozens hit (in which order doesn't matter). and how is the calculation done?

thx a lot already and cheers

hans

hi b.t.w.,

these were just some test results from 2 boring afternoons at the weekend. 

in my oppinion we don't necessarily need a "mild" progression. i guess the progression depends on the frequency in which the wins come in and how many wins come in in a row. maybe this can be played using a prgression where two or three wins in a row would make up for the losses.

unforunately i'm not an excel expert and could only check   my assumption by counting. maybe somebody in here is and can help if i send him the rx session file?

cheers

hans

hi folks,

here are some results of flatbetting dbl. played like this:

when dbl was "black" I bet "even" - when dbl was "red" I bet odd.

cheers

hans

hi bleu angel,

thank you very much for replying. 

You explained your approach perfectly clear. I've  been experimenting with simiilar ideas  for some time. but it never got me anywhere. well, I surely will take the variables you suggested into consideration and see what happens.

cheers
Hans

hi folks,

it's been a while ... well .. quiete a while. 

do you remember C.E.H with his C.W.B. I'm sure you do. and I don't want to stir old things up again. but as I read this topic I remembered one thing that ol' charly e. hamster once wrote:

"Now as promised I will help you in that direction. I have no doubt that SOME idiots will take this as an actual bet or some hidden clue.
THIS IS NOT A BET....BUT A PROPER GUIDE TO WHAT A "Bet Within a Bet" is all about.
As a pure EXAMPLE ONLY let us take a 50/50 bet like the penultimate which is fairly stable in the results as IF...you where betting it (NOTE IF !)
Taking the results ( Wins & Losses) as IF you where betting it, you may SEE that for INSTANCE....perhaps after three losses, IF you bet you THEN .....you would win say seven out of every ten.  IF that was a FACT ? You would then have a consistent winner you could use to make a great deal of money.....IF you was a Professional ?
THAT IS AN EXAMPLE OF A " BET WITHIN A BET"

So IF we take Mikes assumption that after 3 losses somehow mr. edge waits around the corner and ADD this statement here, it seems to me, it needs one or two bits more than just wait for 3 losses to start betting.

cheers 
hans

Hi XXVV,

thanks for replying. 

the method I'm fiddling around with at the moment is to try and catch "the runs of changes" (i.e R B R B R) and simply put the "runs of runs" (R R R R R) aside.
as there are several different possibilities to do this I guess you're right, there is much more work and testing to do.

Quote from: XXVV on May 14, 2015, 07:43:53 PM

Also compare live vs RNG. Why would one result differ so much? One suggestion is that your bet choice is very 'transparent'/ legible ( easily read)  to the RNG program so as it is designed to beat you ( this is a fact) you cannot camouflage your bet.

as I just downloaded the spins of already played sessions (both live wheel and RNG) there is no way for the  RNG to read my  betting style and adapt the results to it  so there should be a different reason (if any besides randomness)  why the bankroll went down south.

it's almost one o'clock in the morning. I need to get some sleep [smiley]aes/sleep.png[/smiley].

so cheers for now 

hans

same concept but this time testing wit RNG spins.

2414 spins played. 

hi folks,

does this look like  a more or less stable result for an even chance 1 unit flatbet? or does it lie within the usual 'what one has to expect range'?

the spins are 4000 real spins from dublinbet. I simulated 39 sessions, each session exactly 100 spins. 2407 bets were placed.  Zero counted as a loss of one unit.

opinions welcome. 

cheers

hans

Quote from: maestro on April 22, 2015, 11:22:12 AM
is funny how author only saw imbalance between even chances...perhaps he could have looked at imbalance between 1 digit numbers like 0-9 and 2 digit numbers 10-36...just curious

if we take away red/black, even/odd, high/low  ... what's left? numbers!

maestro, are you suggesting that numbers are the things to look at? 

cheers

hans 

Quote from: Carlitos on April 21, 2015, 06:06:19 PM
...yes the author wanted to proof that using roulette as an demonstration model for randomness does not stand because its inperfection..... i have read many articles were roulette is being presented to demonstrate its randomness, probaly a lot of people here too.

Now, roulette has more inperfections.....

The BIG question is, are these inperfections to be used in the gamblers advantage??
According to the article the writer seems to think so.

I totally agree with you here. Still I also agree with sqzbox that this imbalance has been looked at for ages. The document itself is more than 20 years old and casinos still exist.

one can easily create a few even money bets in which are more blacks than reds and vice versa. but I guess that doesn't seem to do the trick at all. [smiley]aes/confused.png[/smiley]

cheers

hans 

thanks Victor 

hi guys,

just don't get too excitet about the headline of this topic. 

the attached pdf (which will be attached by Victor a bit later because it's too large to be uploaded) does not really give a solution. still it shows that a solution might be found in the well known red/black/odd/even differences. it also explains why, because of these differences, roulette is not totally random.

I think it is an interesting read anyway and might even "challenge" the math guys among us.

cheers

hans 

EDIT: http://betselection.cc/uploads/hanshuckebein/a_solution_to_roulette.pdf

thanks for replying. 

as I don't have a dropbox account and as winrar doesn't seem to compress the file any more I'll send it to  the betseletion email account and prepare the new topic as far as I can.

cheers

hans