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**General Discussion / Who says you can't beat the horses?**

« **on:**May 08, 2019, 10:44:14 pm »

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Here is an article on baccarat...mostly just general common knowledge....but maybe one or two comments which may be of interest.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidschwartz/2018/06/21/why-casinos-love-and-fear-baccarat-the-worlds-biggest-gambling-game/#283cc6d44188

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidschwartz/2018/06/21/why-casinos-love-and-fear-baccarat-the-worlds-biggest-gambling-game/#283cc6d44188

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Follow these 6 steps and anyone can beat the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo, roulette ....

If you can't follow**all** these 6 steps, you will probably **lose**.

1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at

a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology such as

111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they**must** all be conservative.

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown**flat betting**

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least $ 1,500

( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream, and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have**patience** to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above,**patience**, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a bad shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting.

The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.

If you can't follow

1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at

a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology such as

111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least $ 1,500

( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream, and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above,

Also, if you are using a progression betting system ( like a labby) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using a betting methodology where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a bad shoe requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting.

The higher the risk, the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.

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In my experience, when you see these things happening in a section of hands in a baccarat shoe, that's the time you will have a really, really bad losing section of the shoe ( lose 9 of 10, lose 6 in a row, lose 7 in a row etc etc ) or get killed in the entire shoe :

1.You lose to a natural ( you bet Player and banker wins with a natural )

2. You lose on a 7 to 6 ( You bet Player and lose to Banker 7 to Player 6 on the first 4 cards )

3. You are** behind** on the first 4 cards and **lose** the hand ( you bet Player hand have a 1 on first 2 cards and Banker has a 3 on first 2 cards so you are behind 3 to 1 and Player draws a 10 for total of 1 and Banker draws a 3 for total of 6 and you lose ( Whoever is ahead on first 4 cards wins between 85% and 95% of the hands since other side has to "catch up" ...if you are constantly behind on the first 4 cards, you will lose most of those hands )

4. You are** ahead** on first 4 cards and **lose** the hand......you bet banker and banker has a 3 on the first 4 cards and Player has a 2 so you are ahead, 3 to 2 but Player draws a 7 for a total of 9 and Banker draws a 2 for total of 5 and you lose. You are "supposed" to win but lose instead.

This is not a "system" (unless someone is smart enough to develop one) but if you see these situations appearing in a section of the shoe, you are most likely in for a beating.

The opposite is also true for a good section of the shoe...............but the bad sections will be more than the good sections since you are playing a negative expectation game and will lose more hands than you will win.

1.You lose to a natural ( you bet Player and banker wins with a natural )

2. You lose on a 7 to 6 ( You bet Player and lose to Banker 7 to Player 6 on the first 4 cards )

3. You are

4. You are

This is not a "system" (unless someone is smart enough to develop one) but if you see these situations appearing in a section of the shoe, you are most likely in for a beating.

The opposite is also true for a good section of the shoe...............but the bad sections will be more than the good sections since you are playing a negative expectation game and will lose more hands than you will win.

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Some people can beat the casino

( click on the " continue to article " link in the upper right hand corner ) if the article does not appear right away.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/05/17/inside-the-blackjack-ball-an-exclusive-look-at-the-gathering-of-the-smartest-gamblers-in-the-world/#3280c471307f

( click on the " continue to article " link in the upper right hand corner ) if the article does not appear right away.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/05/17/inside-the-blackjack-ball-an-exclusive-look-at-the-gathering-of-the-smartest-gamblers-in-the-world/#3280c471307f

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This is my opinion for the 3 biggest gambling "inventions"

The first is one that we are all familiar with....using chips ( actually called checks ) in place of actual money.

Losing 4 green chips is not the same as handing over a real $ 100 bill and losing it.............the chips replace the emotional effect of losing your hard earned actual money and substituting it with losing worthless pieces of round plastic.................a brilliant invention and no one knows who invented this concept.

In my next post, I will describe the second invention..............and then I will describe the third.......which is the most brilliant......... and one of the major reasons why casinos rake in enormous profits.

The first is one that we are all familiar with....using chips ( actually called checks ) in place of actual money.

Losing 4 green chips is not the same as handing over a real $ 100 bill and losing it.............the chips replace the emotional effect of losing your hard earned actual money and substituting it with losing worthless pieces of round plastic.................a brilliant invention and no one knows who invented this concept.

In my next post, I will describe the second invention..............and then I will describe the third.......which is the most brilliant......... and one of the major reasons why casinos rake in enormous profits.

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Here is something to look at during your next bac shoe, if you have a slow dealer and have time to write down some extra info on your scorecard.

This is not a "system" ....but just an observation which may or may not have any value.

Basically you track three different situations :

1. If you win or lose a bet by a natural ( you bet Player and Player loses to a natural Banker 8 or 9...or vice versa...you bet Player and win with a Player natural 8 or 9 )

2. You win or lose on a draw ( you bet Player and Player has a ten and a 7 on the first two cards for a total of 7 and Banker has 2 tens for a total of zero and Banker draws an 8 and you lose......or you bet on Player and Banker has a 10 and a 2 on first 2 cards for a total of 2 and Player has 2 and a 3 for a total of 5. Player draws a 6 for a total of 1 and Banker draws an 8 for a total of zero and you win.

3. The third situation is to see who was ahead after the first four cards are dealt.....for example, Player has a 2 and a 4 on the first two cards for a total of 6 and Banker has a 2 and an ace on the first two cards for a total of 3. Player is ahead 4 to 3 .

Or on the first four cards Player has a two aces for a total of 2 and Banker has a 2 and a 3 for a total of 5 so Banker is ahead 5 to 2.

Now make 6 columns on your score card......the first set of 3 columns are for bets that you**lose**. The columns can be titled....Natural, Draw and First 4. So if you lose a bet to a natural, you put a mark in red the Natural column. If **lose** a bet to a draw, you put a red mark in the Draw column. If you** lose **a bet because you were **behind** on the first 4 cards, you put a red mark in red the First 4 column.

Now do the same for the next set of 3 columns and now instead make a black mark if you**win** the bet.

If you**win** a bet with a natural, make a mark in black in the Natural column. If you **win** a bet on a draw, make a black mark in the Draw column. If you **win** a bet and are **ahead** after the first 4 cards are dealt, make a black mark in the First 4 column.

I can almost guarantee you that if you are on one of those 6 or 7 losing bets in a row situations, or are caught in a "shoe from hell" where you can't seem to win a bet, the first set of three columns in red will have many red marks in them.

Like wise, if you are on a good shoe and winning, the second set of 3 columns will have a lot of black marks in them.

The reason you track the first 4 cards in the First 4 column is because whoever is ahead on the first 4 cards will win the hand 80 % or 95 % of the time, depending on the shoe.....for the simple reason the other side has to "catch up" to the side that is ahead.

As I said, this is not a betting system.......but if you start to see a lot of red marks, you will probably be in for a very bad shoe.

And this may be a good starting point if someone has the time to look into this further and develop some kind of betting strategy.

This is not a "system" ....but just an observation which may or may not have any value.

Basically you track three different situations :

1. If you win or lose a bet by a natural ( you bet Player and Player loses to a natural Banker 8 or 9...or vice versa...you bet Player and win with a Player natural 8 or 9 )

2. You win or lose on a draw ( you bet Player and Player has a ten and a 7 on the first two cards for a total of 7 and Banker has 2 tens for a total of zero and Banker draws an 8 and you lose......or you bet on Player and Banker has a 10 and a 2 on first 2 cards for a total of 2 and Player has 2 and a 3 for a total of 5. Player draws a 6 for a total of 1 and Banker draws an 8 for a total of zero and you win.

3. The third situation is to see who was ahead after the first four cards are dealt.....for example, Player has a 2 and a 4 on the first two cards for a total of 6 and Banker has a 2 and an ace on the first two cards for a total of 3. Player is ahead 4 to 3 .

Or on the first four cards Player has a two aces for a total of 2 and Banker has a 2 and a 3 for a total of 5 so Banker is ahead 5 to 2.

Now make 6 columns on your score card......the first set of 3 columns are for bets that you

Now do the same for the next set of 3 columns and now instead make a black mark if you

If you

I can almost guarantee you that if you are on one of those 6 or 7 losing bets in a row situations, or are caught in a "shoe from hell" where you can't seem to win a bet, the first set of three columns in red will have many red marks in them.

Like wise, if you are on a good shoe and winning, the second set of 3 columns will have a lot of black marks in them.

The reason you track the first 4 cards in the First 4 column is because whoever is ahead on the first 4 cards will win the hand 80 % or 95 % of the time, depending on the shoe.....for the simple reason the other side has to "catch up" to the side that is ahead.

As I said, this is not a betting system.......but if you start to see a lot of red marks, you will probably be in for a very bad shoe.

And this may be a good starting point if someone has the time to look into this further and develop some kind of betting strategy.

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